MISSISSIPPI PREPAID AFFORDABLE COLLEGE TUITION PROGRAM

ACTUARIAL VALUATION AND REPORT JUNE 30, 2012

September 4, 2012

Board of Directors Mississippi Prepaid Affordable College Tuition Program State Treasury Department 501 North West Street, Suite 1101A Jackson, MS 39201 To the Board: The attached report summarizes the actuarial valuation of the Mississippi Prepaid Affordable College Tuition Program (“the Program”) as of June 30, 2012. The valuation compares the value of the assets of the prepaid program to the value of expected future tuition payments to beneficiaries. The following pages summarize the actuarial valuation of the trust fund as of June 30, 2012. A comparison of the assets and liabilities of the trust fund shows that as of June 30, 2012 there remains a deficit of about $94.4 million. Our calculations were based on data furnished by InTuition Solutions, Inc. We have not audited the data and we cannot certify as to the accuracy or completeness of the data supplied. Our calculations are based on the actuarial valuation assumptions, chosen by the Board, as presented in this report. The actuarial valuation summarized in this report has been performed using generally accepted actuarial principles and is based on actuarial assumptions, each of which we consider to be reasonable (taking into account the experience of the plan and reasonable future expectations). It is our opinion that the results fully and fairly disclose the actuarial position of the plan as of the valuation date. The undersigned is an actuary at BPS&M, a member of the American Academy of Actuaries, and has met the Qualification Standards of the American Academy of Actuaries to render actuarial opinions herein. Sincerely,

Mike Brister Fellow, Society of Actuaries Principal
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Mississippi Prepaid Affordable College Tuition Program

CONTENTS
Executive Summary 1

Valuation Results................................................................................................................1 Future Cash Flows ..............................................................................................................1 Contract Sales .....................................................................................................................1 Weighted Average Tuition..................................................................................................1 Actuarial Assumptions........................................................................................................2 Yearly Comparison of Selected Plan Year Information .....................................................2 Funded Status .....................................................................................................................3 Contract Sales .....................................................................................................................4 Historic Tuition/Fee Increases ............................................................................................6 Sensitivity of Results to Variations in Experience..............................................................7 Variations in Tuition...........................................................................................................7 Variations in Investment Income ........................................................................................7 Break Even Interest Rate ....................................................................................................7 Break Even Inflation Rates .................................................................................................7

Valuation Assumptions and Methods

8

Actuarial Assumptions........................................................................................................8 Actuarial Methods ..............................................................................................................8

Appendices

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Mississippi Prepaid Affordable College Tuition Program

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Valuation Results
As of June 30, 2012 the Program has an unfunded liability of about $94.4 million. In other words, the value of expected liabilities of the trust exceeds the value of assets, including the value of future payments by contract purchasers, by $94.4 million. The liability amounts are based on actuarial assumptions chosen by the Board. The Program’s records administrator, InTuition Solutions, Inc., provided us with information relating to contracts in place as of June 30, 2012. Program staff provided us with information relating to assets and investment returns. As shown in Appendix A, on a funded percentage basis, the plan is 76.8% funded. This compares to a funded percentage of 83.3% as of June 30, 2011. This decrease in the funded percentage is due to lower than assumed return on assets and higher than assumed tuition inflation. The return on assets was 0.6% (less than the assumed 7.8%). The increase in weighted average tuition for four-year universities and colleges was 8.6% (above the assumed 6.5%). The increase in weighted average tuition for junior and community colleges was 2.5% (less than the assumed 6.0%).

Future Cash Flows
We have analyzed the projected cash flows from the contracts in the plan as of June 30, 2012. Based on the assumed rate of investment return of 7.8% and the assumed rate of tuition inflation (6.5% for universities and colleges, 6.0% for junior and community colleges), we estimate that the required payments from the trust fund for existing contracts will exceed the asset balance, creating a cash deficit, beginning in the fiscal year ending June 30, 2025. A table summarizing our projected results in shown in Appendix B.

Contract Sales
As of June 30, 2012 there were 22,293 participants enrolled in the Program. This compares to 21,218 participants in the Program as of June 30, 2011. The majority of the current contracts are for four-year university (12,294 contracts or 55%). There were also 4,481 two-year junior college plus two-year university contracts (20% of the total) and 1,274 twoyear junior college contracts (6% of the total). The other 4,244, or 19% of the contracts, are dispersed across the remaining contract types.

Weighted Average Tuition
The Weighted Average Tuition (“WAT”) is the average of tuition and fees for in-state residency at Mississippi colleges and universities weighted in proportion to the number of Mississippi resident students attending each of the schools. WAT for four-year universities is $6,145 for the fall of 2012, an increase of 8.6% over the WAT of $5,659 in the fall of 2011. WAT for junior colleges is $2,230 for the fall of 2012, an increase of 2.5% over the WAT of $2,175 in the fall of 2011.

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Actuarial Assumptions
Tuition increases are assumed to be 6.5% per year for all future years at universities, and 6.0% per year for all future years at junior colleges. Investments are assumed to return 7.8% per year for all future years. These assumptions, the other assumptions and the methodology are described more fully in the body of this report.

Yearly Comparison of Selected Plan Year Information
Plan Year 06/30/2011 21,218 371,117,670 $ 47,609,671 261,485,358 83.3% (62,022,641) $

06/30/2010 Number of Contracts Present Value of Contract Liabilities Present Value of Future Contributions Market Value of Assets Funded Ratio Surplus/(Deficit) 21,257 344,788,063 $ 48,407,172 211,641,934 75.4% (84,738,957) $

06/30/2012 22,293 407,454,351 47,879,884 265,125,878 76.8% (94,448,589)

$

$

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Mississippi Prepaid Affordable College Tuition Program

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Funded Status
As of June 30, 2012 the expected liabilities of the Program exceeds the value of the assets of the Program (including the value of future payments by contract purchasers) by $94.4 million. The funded ratio, assets divided by liabilities, is 76.8%, compared to 83.3% a year ago. The assumptions used to perform the actuarial valuation of the fund are described later in this report. The primary assumptions are: Tuition increases 6.5% per year for four-year universities 6.0% per year for junior colleges 7.8% per year

Investment return

450,000,000 400,000,000 350,000,000 300,000,000 250,000,000 200,000,000 150,000,000 100,000,000 50,000,000 0 Assets/Contributions Liabilities
Contributions $47.9 Million

Contract Liabilities $407.4 Million

Assets $265.1 Million

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Contract Sales
Contracts can be purchased for a wide range of ages from newborn through high school senior. The chart below illustrates, based on current participation, the total number of active contracts by expected year of college or university matriculation.

Total Enrollment by Year
1,600 1,400
Number of Contracts

1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0
00 01 02 03 0 4 0 5 06 07 08 09 10 11 1 2 13 14 15 16 17 18 1 9 20 21 22 23 24 25 2 6 27 28 29 2 0 2 0 20 20 20 20 20 20 2 0 20 20 20 20 20 20 2 0 20 20 20 20 20 20 2 0 20 20 20 20 20 20 2 0

Projected Year of Matriculation

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Contracts can be purchased for a variety of plans, from one year to five years of tuition and for junior college, four-year university, or various combinations thereof. The chart below illustrates the total number of current enrollees by type of contract.

Total Enrollment by Benefit 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 1
Type of Contract Years Junior College Years Four-Year College 1 2 2

2
2 1 3

3
3 0 4

4
4 0 3

5
5 0 2

6
6 0 1

7
7 2 0

8
8 1 0

9
9 1 1

10 11 12
10 0 5 11 1 4 12 2 3

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Mississippi Prepaid Affordable College Tuition Program

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Historic Tuition/Fee Increases
The average tuition for four-year universities is assumed to increase 6.5% per year. The average tuition for junior and community colleges is 6.0% per year. The chart below illustrates the actual increases over the last twenty years compared to that assumption.
HISTORY OF TUITION INCREASES
Four Year Colleges and Universities Weighted Average Tuition Junior and Community Colleges Weighted Average Tuition

Fiscal Year Ending 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Average Tuition/Fees 2,317 2,371 2,399 2,426 2,513 2,764 2,764 2,864 3,294 3,578 3,599 3,850 4,037 4,295 4,563 4,742 4,742 5,067 5,418 5,906

Annual Increase 0.13% 2.33% 1.18% 1.13% 3.59% 9.99% 0.00% 3.62% 15.01% 8.62% 0.59% 6.97% 4.86% 6.39% 6.24% 3.92% 0.00% 6.85% 6.93% 9.01%

Annual Increase

2,501 2,570 2,862 2,962 3,408 3,716 3,747 3,988 4,179 4,445 4,758 4,936 4,947 5,288 5,659 6,145

2.76% 11.36% 3.49% 15.06% 9.04% 0.83% 6.43% 4.79% 6.35% 7.05% 3.74% 0.22% 6.89% 7.02% 8.59%

Average Tuition/Fees 942 938 938 953 960 971 1,015 1,083 1,283 1,395 1,411 1,561 1,692 1,712 1,726 1,766 1,835 2,114 2,174 2,234

Annual Increase 15.16% -0.42% 0.00% 1.60% 0.73% 1.15% 4.53% 6.70% 18.47% 8.73% 1.15% 10.63% 8.39% 1.18% 0.82% 2.32% 3.91% 15.20% 2.84% 2.76%

Annual Increase

1,392 1,417 1,571 1,677 1,696 1,712 1,757 1,824 2,111 2,175 2,230

1.80% 10.87% 6.75% 1.13% 0.94% 2.63% 3.81% 15.73% 3.03% 2.53%

Compound Annual Increase 20 Years 15 Years 10 Years 5 Years

4.80% 5.86% 5.14% 5.30%

6.18% 5.16% 5.25%

5.15% 5.79% 4.82% 5.30%

3.19% 4.83% 5.43%

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Sensitivity of Results to Variations in Experience
The table below was prepared to illustrate how variations in future experience will affect the current surplus/ (deficit) of the Program. The Program surplus/ (deficit) as of June 30, 2012 is ($94.4) million under the base set of assumptions as stated in this report.

Variations in Tuition
Baseline Assumptions University tuition inflation higher all years by 25 basis points University tuition lower in all years by 25 basis points Bias Load is 4% rather than 3% Bias Load is 2% rather than 3% Surplus/(Deficit): Surplus/(Deficit): Surplus/(Deficit): Surplus/(Deficit): Surplus/(Deficit): ($94.4) million ($101.2) million ($87.8) million ($98.4) million ($90.5) million

Variations in Investment Income
Investment income rate lower in all years by 25 basis points Investment income rate higher in all years by 25 basis points Surplus/(Deficit): Surplus/(Deficit): ($101.2) million ($87.9) million

Break Even Interest Rate
An investment earnings rate of 12.22% is required for the Program to satisfy all future benefits and expenses in the projection period if other experience is consistent with the actuarial assumptions. This rate is greater than last year’s result of 10.71%.

Break Even Inflation Rates
Maintaining the current relationship that the university inflation rate is 50 basis points greater than the junior college inflation rate, a 2.31% university inflation rate and a 1.81% junior college inflation rate are required for the Program to satisfy all future benefits and expenses in the projection period if other experience is consistent with the actuarial assumptions. These equivalent rates are less than last year’s results.

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Mississippi Prepaid Affordable College Tuition Program

VALUATION ASSUMPTIONS AND METHODS
Actuarial Assumptions
The assumptions used in the actuarial valuation of the Program are described below. These assumptions were developed by the Board. Tuition Increases: The Weighted Average Tuition for four-year universities is assumed to increase at 6.5% per year. The Weighted Average Tuition for junior colleges is assumed to increase at 6.0% per year. Investment Return: Invested assets are assumed to earn 7.8% per year. The Program is exempt from Federal Income Tax. Expenses: Expenses net of fees collected assumed to be 5% of tuition payments. Enrollment of MPACT Beneficiaries: Beneficiaries are assumed to attend college or university full time commencing with the expected matriculation date (the Fall following high school graduation). Further, it is assumed that the contract beneficiaries will not attend the available colleges and universities in the same proportion as the headcount information that was used to determine the 2012/2013 Weighted Average Tuition, but rather attend on average more expensive schools than those included in the aforementioned information. Accordingly, a 3% “bias load” was added to the university Weighted Average Tuition to allow for anti-selection toward matriculation at schools with higher tuition. Contract Cancellations: It was assumed that there would be no contract cancellations. Deaths and Disability: Mortality and disability decrements were not used.

Actuarial Methods
The actuarial valuation of the Program is based on projections of tuition and required fees expected to be paid on behalf of Program beneficiaries, and on amounts paid into the Program from contract installment payments. This actuarial valuation is based on the data described and corresponding sources of data described below. Data Tuition & required fees at four-year universities Headcount at four-year universities MPACT active contract inventory Tuition & required fees at junior colleges Headcount at junior colleges Source Mississippi Institutions of Higher Learning Mississippi Institutions of Higher Learning InTuition Solutions, Inc. State Board of Community & Junior Colleges State Board of Community & Junior Colleges

MPACT Beneficiaries (Appendix C): The future payments expected to be made to and from the trust fund have been determined based on the number of contracts shown in Appendix C. This information is based on actual enrollment in the program as provided by the above sources.

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VALUATION ASSUMPTIONS AND METHODS
Weighted Average Tuition: Four-Year Universities (Appendix D): The Weighted Average Tuition for public four-year universities in Mississippi is the average of tuition and required fees at each of the four-year universities, weighted by full-time equivalent resident enrollment headcount at each university. Resident enrollment headcount is the number of undergraduate students eligible to pay in-state tuition at Mississippi four-year universities. The full-time headcounts as of Fall 2011 were used to determine the Weighted Average Tuition. Weighted Average Tuition: Junior and Community Colleges (Appendix E): The Weighted Average Tuition for junior and community colleges was determined using the same methodology as for four-year universities, except the weighting was based on the average full-time headcounts at each college for the Fall 2010 and Fall 2011 semesters. Annual Increases in Weighted Average Tuition (Appendix F): The one-year increase in Weighted Average Tuition is shown along with the actual required tuition and fees for all applicable schools. The Weighted Average Tuition rates are used to calculate the prices charged to new contracts for the upcoming year. Comparison of Junior College and 4-Year University Liabilities (Appendix G): A comparison of the liabilities attributable to Junior Colleges and 4-year Universities is shown along with the total liabilities of the plan.

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APPENDICES
Appendix A Funded Status
Market Value of Assets Actuarial Present Value of future contract installment payments Subtotal Actuarial present value of future payments of tuition and fees Surplus/(Deficit) Funded Status 265,125,878 47,879,884 313,005,762 407,429,782 (94,424,020) 76.82%

Appendix B Projected Future Cash Flows

Plan Year Beginning 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033

Market Value BOY 265,125,878 272,005,721 271,632,319 264,511,609 247,634,919 236,185,359 221,792,048 202,806,056 180,620,482 155,113,365 126,173,417 94,611,871 61,802,784 26,998,248 (9,314,956) (46,919,376) (86,404,321) (126,302,914) (165,204,321) (199,487,229) (228,275,914) (252,152,441)

Projected Tuition Payments (24,496,542) (30,733,382) (35,748,692) (43,258,758) (35,266,706) (36,006,866) (38,651,803) (39,681,074) (40,579,225) (41,358,132) (41,240,972) (39,777,367) (38,946,004) (37,613,832) (35,937,981) (34,748,994) (32,032,605) (27,964,411) (20,593,812) (12,732,128) (5,843,124) (902,576)

Projected Contract Payments 11,214,564 9,953,932 8,503,234 7,158,088 5,656,423 4,422,873 3,728,058 3,103,166 2,469,971 1,859,778 1,392,009 1,097,085 808,224 636,866 444,379 268,499 118,211 5,046 -

Investment Market Value Income EOY 20,161,821 272,005,721 20,406,048 271,632,319 20,124,748 264,511,609 19,223,979 247,634,919 18,160,723 236,185,359 17,190,682 221,792,048 15,937,754 202,806,056 14,392,334 180,620,482 12,602,137 155,113,365 10,558,407 126,173,417 8,287,417 94,611,871 5,871,195 61,802,784 3,333,244 26,998,248 663,762 (9,314,956) (2,110,817) (46,919,376) (5,004,451) (86,404,321) (7,984,198) (126,302,914) (10,942,042) (165,204,321) (13,689,096) (199,487,229) (16,056,557) (228,275,914) (18,033,403) (252,152,441) (19,703,091) (272,758,108)

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Mississippi Prepaid Affordable College Tuition Program

APPENDICES
App endix C - Type of Con tract P roj ected Enrollment Year 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2 Yr Jr Coll 1 4 10 9 12 17 22 25 31 39 64 59 56 85 95 81 71 69 74 75 48 57 42 61 35 31 38 29 27 7 1,274 5.71% 1 Yr Jr Coll 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 9 9 9 8 7 12 7 7 6 10 5 4 7 11 5 7 4 3 140 0.63% Total Enrollment Percent by Yr of T otal 42 60 95 125 168 228 309 454 740 976 1,137 1,190 1,191 1,276 1,264 1,371 1,231 1,180 1,232 1,225 1,008 956 897 805 759 611 585 524 415 239 22,293 100.00% 0.19% 0.27% 0.43% 0.56% 0.75% 1.02% 1.39% 2.04% 3.32% 4.38% 5.10% 5.34% 5.34% 5.72% 5.67% 6.15% 5.52% 5.29% 5.53% 5.49% 4.52% 4.29% 4.02% 3.61% 3.40% 2.74% 2.62% 2.35% 1.86% 1.07%

2+ 2 9 14 20 27 26 38 59 79 143 169 239 215 260 294 257 294 259 250 236 235 232 229 172 149 149 118 107 83 74 45 4,481 20.10%

1+3 3 1 4 4 4 6 10 8 13 32 30 26 26 35 30 41 22 27 23 25 10 9 9 9 7 8 6 7 2 2 439 1.97%

4 Yr Univ 3 Yr Univ 2 Yr Univ 1 Y r Univ 26 36 56 78 112 141 180 282 499 620 654 702 659 669 683 772 682 598 655 650 517 443 493 429 406 309 290 302 221 130 12,294 55.15% 1 1 1 1 3 4 2 11 12 8 8 7 11 7 7 8 8 7 4 5 3 2 6 6 5 1 2 3 144 0.65% 1 3 2 1 4 9 10 12 16 41 50 60 70 81 63 63 62 75 52 68 51 63 60 42 34 34 38 39 35 7 1,146 5.14% 1 2 1 4 6 11 11 8 25 30 47 38 30 41 41 36 26 43 25 29 36 20 26 15 24 17 13 7 4 617 2.77%

1+1 2 2 0.01%

5 Yr Univ 1 1 3 5 7 21 19 29 41 51 51 51 54 50 51 84 104 103 69 85 71 64 72 53 65 39 37 32 1,313 5.89%

1+4 1 2 4 2 1 4 1 1 1 1 3 4 5 3 5 2 1 1 1 1 2 46 0.21%

2+3 2 2 6 6 5 8 12 13 13 14 21 14 26 32 25 28 33 22 22 16 23 23 11 6 8 6 397 1.78%

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APPENDICES
Appendix D Weighted Average Tuition Calculation – Four Year Universities
Full Time Equivalent Enrollment Fall 2011 3,464 3,626 7,372 17,828 2,207 2,043 16,734 13,970 67,244

Institution Alcorn State University Delta State University Jackson State University Mississippi State University Mississippi University for Woman Mississippi Valley State University University of Mississippi University of Southern Mississippi Total

Percentage of Total 5.15% 5.39% 10.96% 26.51% 3.28% 3.04% 24.89% 20.78% 100.00%

Tuition and Required Fees 2013 Fiscal Yr 5,712 5,724 5,988 6,264 5,316 5,628 6,282 6,336

Weighted Average Semester Hour Quarter Hour

6,145.00 192.03 128.02

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APPENDICES
Appendix E Weighted Average Tuition Calculation – Junior and Community Colleges
Resident Enrollment Fall 2010 2,696 3,799 2,617 5,306 12,791 6,404 7,742 5,323 3,980 3,392 10,072 3,614 8,370 5,014 2,096 83,216 Resident Enrollment Fall 2011 2,676 3,428 2,425 4,836 11,800 6,172 7,278 4,687 3,584 3,205 9,398 3,324 7,798 4,658 1,906 77,175 Weighted Average Semester Hour Quarter Hour Average Resident Enrollment 2,686 3,614 2,521 5,071 12,296 6,288 7,510 5,005 3,782 3,299 9,735 3,469 8,084 4,836 2,001 80,196 2,230.00 69.69 46.46 Tuition and Required Fees 2013 Fiscal Yr 2,300 2,100 2,110 2,450 2,060 2,138 2,000 2,380 2,244 2,450 2,472 2,172 2,250 2,300 2,090

Coahoma CC Copiah-Lincoln CC East Central CC East Mississippi CC Hinds CC Holmes CC Itawamba CC Jones CC Meridian CC Mississippi Delta CC Mississippi Gulf CC Northeast Mississippi CC Northwest Mississippi CC Pearl River CC Southwest Mississippi CC Total

Percent of Total 3.35% 4.51% 3.14% 6.32% 15.33% 7.84% 9.36% 6.24% 4.72% 4.11% 12.14% 4.33% 10.08% 6.03% 2.50% 100.00%

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APPENDICES
Appendix F Annual Increase in Weighted Average Tuition 2011-2012 2012-2013

Weighted Average Tuition Universities 1 Year 4 Year Per Semester Hour Per Quarter Hour Lump Sum Payment One Year Community Colleges 1 Year 4 Year Per Semester Hour Per Quarter Hour Lump Sum Payment One Year

Increase

% Change

5,659.00 22,636.00 176.84 117.90 6,027.00

6,145.00 24,580.00 192.03 128.02 6,544.00

486.00 1,944.00 15.19 10.12 517.00

8.59% 8.59% 8.59% 8.58% 8.58%

2,175.00 4,350.00 67.97 45.31 2,306.00

2,230.00 4,460.00 69.69 46.46 2,364.00

55.00 110.00 1.72 1.15 58.00

2.53% 2.53% 2.53% 2.54% 2.52%

Tuition and Required Fees Fiscal 2013 Alcorn State University Delta State University Jackson State University Mississippi State University Mississippi University for Women Mississippi Valley State University University of Mississippi University of Southern Mississippi 1 Year 5,712 5,724 5,988 6,264 5,316 5,628 6,282 6,336 1 Year 2,300 2,100 2,110 2,450 2,060 2,138 2,000 2,380 2,244 2,450 2,472 2,172 2,250 2,300 2,090 4 Year 22,848 22,896 23,952 25,056 21,264 22,512 25,128 25,344 2 Year 4,600 4,200 4,220 4,900 4,120 4,276 4,000 4,760 4,488 4,900 4,944 4,344 4,500 4,600 4,180

Coahoma Community College Copiah-Lincoln Community College East Central Community College East Mississippi Community College Hinds Community College Homes Community College Itawamba Community College Jones Community College Meridian Community College Mississippi Delta Community College Mississippi Gulf Community College Northeast Mississippi Community College Northwest Mississippi Community College Pearl River Community College Southwest Mississippi Community College

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APPENDICES
Appendix G Present Value of Liabilities
Actuarial present value of liabilties for Junior Colleges Actuarial present value for iabilities for 4-Year Universities Total actuarial present value for all liabilities 23,936,578 383,493,204 407,429,782

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