Middle East and Af-Pak Regions

Geopolitics, Wars and Re-shaping of

Edition: 1st, 2012 Authors: Syed Zaid Zaman Hamid Shahzad Masood Roomi Farzana Shah Title Design : Waqar Ahmed Siddiqui Graphics Designing : Shahzad Masood Roomi PDF version for mass distribution All Rights are reserved. No part of this publication can be reproduced without the prior written premission from Brsstacks.

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Contents

American Wars: Conflict and Crisis in Muslim Lands Zionists’ “War on Terror” Zaid Hamid with Mark Glenn on OBL “Killing” Pakistan and Saudi Arabia Arab - Iran Relations India - Iran Relations and Pakistan

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1 American Wars:The Conflict and Crisis in the Muslim Lands
Zaid Hamid

The sinister struggle for control of Pakistan and the Muslim world between two opposing fascist ideologies of Western / Hindu Zionists and Kharjee Takfiris
They said it – lest we forget:

“When the wealthy Jews play, the nations and the rulers dance." "The Jews make countries fight each other and when they want, make peace. But whatever happens, they get rich from this."

Founder of Zionism, Theodore Herzl

"There is only one power which really counts, the power of political pressure. We Jews are the most powerful people on earth, because we have this power, and we know how to apply it." The History

Vladimir Jabotinsky, Jewish Daily Bulletin, July 27, 1935

Almost ninety years ago, in the beginning of the 20th century, a most shattering and devastating blow was suffered by the Muslim world as its maps were radically re-drawn by the invading and victorious Western powers when the Ottoman Empire was defeated and dismembered. It was during this outrageous and sacrilegious pillage of the Muslim lands that the State of Israel was sanctioned to the world Jewry by the triumphant British Empire. It took another great war a few years later, with horrendous bloodshed and destruction of humanity,

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both in the East and the West, to finally materialize the dream of the Zionist Jewry – the State of Israel in the Holy Lands. A political, military and ideological dagger pierced the Muslim heartland. Pakistan was born almost at the same time as Israel. Both countries, representing two diametrically opposite religious ideologies hostile to each other, were born to be enemies and have remained in a state of covert war ever since. India, a State which is secular on paper only, is led and controlled by idol worshiping Brahmin pagans with extreme hostility towards Pakistan, hence becoming a natural born collaborator of the Zionist State. The following quote by the founding father of the Jewish State completes this geopolitical and strategic equation in totality:

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“The world Zionist movement should not be neglectful of the dangers of Pakistan to it. And Pakistan now should be its first target, for this ideological State is a threat to our existence. And Pakistan, the whole of it, hates the Jews and loves the Arabs. “This lover of the Arabs is more dangerous to us than the Arabs themselves. For that matter, it is most essential for the world Zionism that it should now take immediate steps against Pakistan. “Whereas the inhabitants of the Indian peninsula are Hindus whose hearts have been full of hatred towards Muslims, therefore, India is the most important base for us to work there from against Pakistan. “It is essential that we exploit this base and strike and crush Pakistanis, enemies of Jews and Zionism, by all disguised and secret plans.”
David Ben Gurion, the first Israeli Prime Minister. His words, as printed in the Jewish Chronicle, August 1967.

The Environment
As the 21st century unfolds, the contemporary times are witnessing yet another epic struggle within the Muslim heartland. The Muslim world is desperately fighting an existential war, this time against two violent ideologies which have invaded from opposing prongs. The entire Muslim heartland – from the Arabian Peninsula to the greater Middle East including Pakistan - is the battle ground, and the ultimate prize. Not just that the heart and soul of the Muslim world is at stake, even the geography is once again threatened to be altered radically. In terms of phenomenon and scale, the threat is so severe and unique that it has baffled even the finest Muslim thinkers, philosophers, Generals and analysts who are desperately trying to understand and then cope with the staggering emotional turmoil and the ensuing ground violence within the Muslim lands. The ideological, political and military confusion and chaos is so complete within the Muslim world that mature reason and sound logic has almost given way to irrational radicalism or defeated resignation to fate, as violence, anarchy and the dizzying pace of unfortunate events cripple the capacity of the Muslim world to develop even a reactive response let alone a pro-active one. There is no strategic threat analysis, hence no long term response strategy. The Muslim political leadership, despite hanging on to power, has crumbled in totality to rise to the challenges, hence giving a free run to the invaders, leaving the hapless Muslim population to the wolves. Once again it seems sharply clear that the colonial and anarchic invading forces – operating on external and internal axis -- will further attempt to divide, conquer and dismember the Muslim countries into smaller territories. The 4th Generation war deployed in the greater Middle East today was first applied, experimented and perfected upon pro-Soviet Yugoslavia in the last decade of the 20th century, obliterating the country into

history. Now the American wars are being waged right into the Muslim heartland, with genuine threats of re-drawing of greater Middle Eastern Maps as well. After bringing death and destruction to Afghanistan and Iraq, Pakistan is now in the eye of the storm, already staggering under the sheer scale of violence, war, chaos as well as political and economic anarchy. However, the threat is still manageable, downslide can be checked and rock solid responses can be built but this remarkable turnaround would need a genuinely great leadership with vision, courage and spiritual prowess to dream and then achieve the seemingly impossible under these desperate conditions.

The prongs
Today, the Muslim world finds itself between the two proverbial jaws of an alligator, facing the following invading prongs from opposing directions: 1. The Western Crusaders, US, NATO, Neo-Cons and the Zionists. Using the full might of the western military and industrial power, backed by the massive use of information warfare and Psy-ops weapons, another wave of physical colonization of Muslim lands has begun. 2. The Radically anarchic Takfiri Kharjee religious militants. Exploiting the heretical interpretations of religious ideals, these terrorist gangs have been on the rampage within the Muslim lands, primarily targeting Iraq and Pakistan with devastating effects. By declaring war on the Muslim lands from within their territories, the Kharjees have become the most valuable assets for the Western crusaders to justify their global wars and colonization. This particular crisis confronted by the Muslim world today, of facing two prongs of such attacks, has only one precedent in the entire 1400 years of Muslim history, though in terms of phenomenon and scale the threat today has magnified many times over. Historically, it is not new for the Muslim world to come under attack from the powerful Western civilization or radical Zionist ideologies from the Judeo-Christian world. The Crusades are a vivid and brutal expression of the militant and violent Judeo-Christian anarchists’ ideology invading the Muslim heartland for religious, political and economic reasons. Similarly, radical anarchist thoughts within the Muslim world are also not without precedent. The Kharjiites, during the times of the companions of the Prophet, declared war on the Muslim political and civil society. The radical and anarchists ideology of Assassins came later during the 10th century and wreaked havoc within the Muslim society for almost 200 years during and after the times of Crusades. The great Kurdish Sultan of Syria and Egypt, Salahuddin Ayubi had to fight and subdue Assassins within the Muslim society before he could attack and counterattack the invading Crusaders from the Western world. It would be interesting to note for our readers that the English word Assassin has come from the Arabic word Hashashin, meaning the ones who use Hashish or intoxicating drugs. The murderous thugs of The Order of the Assassin cult were drugged with Hashish and then sent on dangerous suicide missions within the Muslim world for murders, sabotage and creating terrorism, hence the word Assassins came to be used in Western languages, representing the qualities of a hidden, terrorist murderer. In mid nineteenth century, a German

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historian, Von Hammer wrote a rare and invaluable book on the ideology and practices of medieval assassins, titled the History of the Assassins, where he vividly explains their murderous practices and cult ideology, which succeeded in over running almost the entire Muslim heartland, even coming close to assassinating Sultan Salahuddin during the peak of the Crusades. Even Salahuddin could not finish off the cloak and dagger cult of the Order of the Assassins, who were finally, decisively and ruthlessly eliminated by the rampaging Mongol armies which had also over run the Capital of Khilifat in Baghdad around 13th century AD. It is only now, after the times of the Crusades, that the Muslim world is again facing two prongs of opposing violent, fascist, political ideologies – Crusading Zionists and the Assassin Kharjees – often fighting with each other as well within the Muslim world for control, power, influence and turf. The game is sinister, evil and indeed bloody with violent consequences for the Muslims. External invasion fueled by religious fanaticism of the Judeo-Christian Zionists and aided by Hindu Zionists and internal sabotage by home grown cult of Kharjees have recreated the threats, risks and the environment of the Crusades after almost a 1000 years. Similarly, though all Muslim Ummah disapproves of the western invasion of Muslim lands, Kharjees are exploiting this Zionist invasion to wage their own war against the Muslim societies and governments by declaring them partners in crime in these Crusades. Thus the Kharjees are also trying to grab the strategic control of the Muslim world by exploiting the emotional upheaval and anger within the Muslim societies due to the lack of any quality leadership within their countries. The War on Terror (WOT) actually means Wars of Crusades by Zionists within the Muslim world for its colonization, using the radical ideology of Kharjees as a justification for invading and forcing the Muslim society to accept this invasion by presenting to them the Kharjee ideology as a bigger threat to the Muslim world. So even if the Kharjee threat is not real in certain lands, creating, fabricating and promoting the phantom bogey through orchestrated media campaigns and psy-ops, remains an integral part of the entire Zionist war effort. While Zionists invade Muslim lands and occupy them, they want the Muslim world to fight and finish off the Kharjees first. On the other hand, it is the ultimate desire of the Kharjees to bring about a massive, high intensity conflict between the Muslim world and the Crusading Zionists so that a power and leadership vacuum within the Muslim world would allow Kharjees to break out and grab power, just as the Assassins did in the past during the Crusades. The Zionists as well as the Kharjees want each other to finish off the Muslim world, and one is using the bogey of the other to justify their presence within the Muslim heartland and society. Both are waging a war against the Muslim world with devastating effects and the battleground is the Muslim urban societies. In reality, they are often willing partners with the agenda to destroy the status quo within the Muslim world through violent means. The net result for the Muslim world will be total and complete destruction, if any or both of the ideologies are successful.

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The commonly known name for the modern day Kharjees in Pakistan is Tehreek e Taliban Pakistan and the so called Al-Qaeda, both of them have waged bloody wars within the Muslim world against Muslim States and Muslim societies, while occasionally terrorizing western societies as well. A comprehensive analysis and introduction of this ideology and its patronizing gangs have been discussed in detail in the BrassTacks September issue. Baitullah Mehsud, Hakim ullah Mehsud, Mullah Fadlullah, Ayman Zawihiri and Osama Bin Laden as well as Uzbek militants and Lal Masjid gangs are examples of this anarchic cult in modern times. Another example of Kharjee thought is the group of Utaibi who took over the Holy Kaaba in 1979 in an armed rebellion against Saudi monarchy during Hajj, which resulted in thousands of casualities in the holiest Masjid of Muslims in the world. The similarities between the siege of Makkah in 1979 and siege of Lal Masjid in 2007 in Islamabad are strikingly obvious, with similar ideological, militant and political goals of the Kharjees and with the identical end of the two cult rebellions.

The Great Game
Having understood the ideology of the two invading prongs, we come to the grand strategic objectives of the Neo-Con foreign policy for the 21st century in the Middle East, Africa and Asia. This is the larger game of the Neo-Cons for which an “enemy” had to be created and the Zionist backed Kharjees played this anarchic role, within the Muslim world, rather brilliantly. 1. Defense and Security of Israel and to create weak, headless States in the Middle East, even changing geography to create a new Middle East. Stopping Muslim countries from acquiring nuclear weapons is an integrated part of this objective. 2. Containment and destruction of political and militant Islam. 3. Control of fuel assets. 4. Control of global trading routes, oil pipelines and strategic water ways like Gulf, Suez, Bosporus, horn of Africa, Gibraltar, Malacca straits. 5. Encirclement and Containment of Russia. 6. Encirclement and Containment of China. We emphasize that everything, repeat – everything that is happening in the ME, Africa and Asia has to do with one or more of these objectives as well as the clash between US foreign policy and the rest of the regional players who have a stake in preventing the US from achieving these objectives. These world wars and global agenda have nothing to do with “war on terror”. The “WOT” is the new great game to gain strategic foothold in the 21st century. Political heavyweight, Zbigniew Brzezinski, clarified the importance of Central Asia to the US plans for global dominance in his book, “The Grand Chessboard”

“Ever since the continents started interacting politically, some 500 years ago, Eurasia has

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been the center of world power”…“For America, the chief geopolitical prize is Eurasia—and America’s global primacy is directly dependent on how long and how effectively its preponderance on the Eurasian continent is sustained”….“How America manages Eurasia is critical. Eurasia is the globe’s largest continent and is geopolitically axial. A power that dominates Eurasia would control two of the world’s three most advanced and economically productive regions. A mere glance at the map also suggests that control over Eurasia would almost automatically entail Africa’s subordination, rendering the Western Hemisphere and Oceania geopolitically peripheral to the world’s central continent. About 75% of the world’s people live in Eurasia and most of the world’s physical wealth as well, both in its enterprises and underneath its soil. Eurasia accounts for 60% of the world’s GNP and about three-fourths of the world’s known energy resources.”
The Grand Chessboard To achieve the above stated six Grand strategic objectives, the Muslim lands need to be further dismembered. US forces need to be based within Muslim lands. Ethnic and sectarian wars need to be ignited in order to create “new blood borders” on ethnic and religious lines. Muslim nuclear potential needs to be blunted. Defense of Israel is not possible if Pakistan or Iran possess nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles. If Pakistan does not agree to surrender its nuclear weapons and missile program, then TTP Kharjees have to be deployed to create such mayhem and anarchy within the state that Pakistan becomes a failed and dysfunctional state forcing the world community to “step in” to prevent the “proliferation” of nuclear weapons into “wrong” hands.

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The New Middle East map planned by the US, for which multiple wars would be launched in the region, is similar to what is shown below. The US government has recently officially denied any such plans, but the events on ground and US force positioning in the region, point towards what the US denies.

The modern, easy to understand name for Zionists is Neo-Conservatives Christian Evangelicals and they rule the United States of America today with their ideological allies in London, Tel-Aviv and Delhi. The Christian Zionists believe that the State of Israel must be protected at all costs as that is the place where the final war with the Anti-Christ, Armageddon, will take place and Christ would return to earth to lead the good Christians. Hence, their fanatical loyalty to Jewish Zionists and their ideals of creating a greater Israel in the Middle East at the cost of the Muslim world. The Crusades of the Middle Ages were religious wars; the Crusades of the 21st century are equally fanatical in religious fervor, driven by the same ideals which drove the frenzy of earlier Crusades. It should be noted that not every Jew is a Zionist just as not every Christian is a Neo-Con. In fact true Jews and good Christians hate Zionism and Israeli policies. There are millions of them but they are denied space on the mainstream media, which is also controlled by the Zionists. A quick Google search will show up many such Jewish and Christian groups rejecting Jewish and Christian Zionists. It would be appropriate here if we give some time and space to understand the Neo-Con Christian ideology, as it is the least understood phenomenon amongst Pakistani planners and strategists. The American Enterprise Institute (AEI) for Public Policy Research, founded in 1943 during the post WWII era, is located in Washington D.C. It is an organization dedicated to strengthening national defense, Jewish cultural and political institutions of and related to Israel. The American Enterprise Institute (AEI) is fundamentally made up of mostly scholars, corporate executives and politicians with Neoconservative leaning. It is more or less a central “think tank” of Zionism. They over-see and make decisions regarding trade, economics, social welfare, government tax, spending, US policies on foreign affairs and all US defense policies related to Israel and the entire Middle East. AEI is a nonpartisan organization composed of Neoconservative and Compassionate Conservative Zionists. It considers itself to be the American-Jewish political presence in the world. World domination is their goal. The Neoconservative dream world is a Jewish World. Global domination, with Israel by its side, is the main concern of the US government and all its Neoconservative think thank organizations, such as the AEI. Christian Zionists, or dispensationalists, give Israel total support because they think there has to be a state there, a place — not for Jews, but for the battle of Armageddon to take place, which they actually believe must occur. It is part of the required steps, they believe, that will lead to their Rapture and the Second Coming of Christ. American Christianity — referring to what is variously called American Evangelism, Christian Zionism, or Dominionism, and comprising much of mainstream American Protestantism — isn't Christianity in reality at all. By 1947, the Jewish Zionists in US had formed a powerful, $100 million a year, lobbyist organization in Washington that pushed Truman into forcing the U.N. to giving away 55% of the Palestinian people's land to the Zionist Jews.

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Back in 1947, the United States government had not been so heavily infiltrated by the Jewish Zionists or nonJewish Zionists. The State Department, Senate, House of Representatives, Pentagon, and White House were still Christian and conservative Americans – very unlike today. In present times, their infiltration is massive -- it almost represents a coup d'etat. The most recent Zionist group to infiltrate the US government is called the Neocons (Neoconservatives). In the 1960’s, Irving Kristol and other East European Zionist Jews, founded the Neocon movement in New York. They followed the political and philosophical writings of another German Zionist Jew, who taught at the University of Chicago and whose classes many of them attended. His name is Leo Strauss (1899-1973). Kristol, the godfather of the Neocons, became the managing editor of Commentary magazine, which according to the Christian Science Monitor, became the "neocon bible." Later, he founded additional magazines: the Public Interest and the National Interest. The Neocons teach that one of the best ways to maintain political order is to have an external threat. It unifies the people behind the President. If there is no external threat, they say, then the government should manufacture one. In that vain perpetual war is a good goal. War is also good because it keeps people away from their more hedonistic tendencies. Therefore, the U.S. being the world's only superpower, should aggressively use its military might to promote the U.S. values around the world, especially in the Middle East, which translates for the Zionists into the U.S. protecting and supporting Israel at all costs.

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The Greater Israel dream of Christian and Jewish Zionists – the ultimate goal of Neocons for which the Middle East needs to be reshaped.

Hindu Zionists – Hitching the ride with Western Zionists
Hindu Zionists are no different from their Judeo-Christian counterparts in antipathy towards Islamic world, but suffer from an intrinsic inferiority complex against Muslims due to the fact that the Muslims had ruled India for a thousand years till 1857 and then India fell into the hands of the British for another 90 years.

Hindu zealots are burning with anger to avenge their 1000 years of shame and subjugation at the hands of the Muslims, but lack the courage and ferocity to do the job themselves, especially against Pakistan, their archenemy. They need Western Zionists to do the job for them. It is the ultimate dream of their foreign policy and diplomacy to get the western countries to attack and destroy Pakistan. One can still remember the eagerness and impatience of the Indian government to offer bases to the US forces after 9/11 to attack and destroy Pakistan! Just like the Israelis, the Indians also plan to fight Pakistan to the last American! Regarding Hindu Zionists and their objectives, Vijay Prashad, on August 8th, 2001, in a fascinating and thought provoking article titled Hindutva and Zionism, writes:

“The fantasy entertained by the Hindu Right government is that an alliance with the world's lions (USA-Israel) will allow India to sup at High Table, to eat high on the hog. Certainly the expectation is that trade will follow the military tie-up. For that reason, we see a wholesale sell-out by the Hindu Right to US-Israeli foreign/military policy objectives. The Hindu Right recognize the persistence of US imperialism, and Israeli sub-imperialism -- and they want a piece of the action in South Asia. It appears that the Hindu Right seeks the franchise for US lackey against what it sees as Islamic fundamentalism and Chinese Communism. But the alliance with Israel is not so strange after all, because at the ideological level, Hindutva is much like Zionism, for both extol the importance of the Race-State, and both cast aspersions at the presence of a Muslim minority. An India-born analyst at the Zionist Freeman Center in Houston, Texas, makes just this connection: "Islamic fascists see Bharat [India] as the soft spot to propagate their irrational creed and foment violence. India tries to placate them. Israel expels them. This is what Bharat should do. If they hate Hindu Rashtra so much they are free to leave for dar-ul Islam." At the unofficial level, the links seem to be growing. Among semi-fascists the links are deep. The restless lions of west and south Asia join the tigers of East Asia to encircle China and the predominantly Muslim states of west and central Asia. The big cats are at Genoa, but they significantly meet in military headquarters and in the secure offices of arms merchants around the world, eager to undermine the political process with the sorts of hardware that ensures that our world remain undemocratic. Empire is alive and well” The Dirty Wars
Post 9/11 American wars designed to redraw the Middle East map are based on what Robert Greene, in his book “The 33 Strategies of War”, described as unconventional or dirty war. Greene explains this war further:

“A general fighting a war must constantly search for an advantage over the opponent. The

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greatest advantage comes from the element of surprise, from hitting enemies with strategies that are novel, outside their experience, completely unconventional. It is in the nature of war; however, that over time any strategy with any possible application will be tried and tested, so that the search for the new and unconventional has an innate tendency to become more and more extreme. At the same time, moral and ethical codes that governed warfare for centuries have gradually loosened. These two effects dovetail into what we today call “dirty war”, where anything goes down to the killing of thousands of unwarned civilians. Dirty war is political, deceptive and supremely manipulative. Often the last recourse of the weak and desperate, it uses any means available to level the playing field.

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The dynamics of the dirty war have filtered into society and the culture at large. Whether in politics, business or society, the way to defeat your enemy is to surprise them, to come at them from an unexpected angle. And the increasing pressures of these daily wars make dirty strategies inevitable. People go underground; they seem nice and decent but use slippery devious methods behind the scenes.”
Now, following is the brief summary of the ridiculous situation in which Pakistan finds itself today due to these US “dirty wars”. It is a masterpiece of Pakistan’s foreign and national security policy blunders, failures and confusion, fully exploited by the Zionists and Kharjee Fascists. 1. US is threatening to invade Pakistani tribal areas and regularly attack targets of its choice using Drones and other means. Relations between the US and Pakistan are tense, nervous and based on mistrust and betrayal. The US supplies pass through Pakistan, making the US vulnerable to developments in Pakistan. War in Afghanistan is not going as the US had planned, creating a military and political crisis for the United States and NATO, making the US even more nervous and jittery regarding Pakistan. The US now want Pakistan to fight Afghan Taliban and other resistance groups on behalf of the Americans, and is using all forms of carrots and sticks to push Pakistan into another war in North Waziristan.

2. Pakistan is still not sure about its role in Afghanistan and remains clueless regarding an Afghan policy and has no defined rules of engagement with the US. Even after nearly 10 years of Afghan war, Pakistan neither has a vision to protect its interests and assets in Afghanistan nor any defined and declared national security goals. Despite the anarchic chaos and the conflict within Pakistan due to US presence in Afghanistan, the government and the military is still not sure what is good for Pakistan – American presence in Afghanistan or their withdrawal from it!! 3. Kabul government remains hostile to Islamabad and is supporting multiple insurgencies, aiding the Indians to establish bases all along the western border, staging terror campaigns inside Pakistan and protecting wanted terrorists. Pakistan has not made any significant breakthrough in the Northern alliance nor taken any independent initiative to play an aggressive role as a peacemaker in Afghanistan. Islamabad’s hesitation and lack of confidence to get involved is fatal. 4. TTP Kharjees, Al-Qaeda and their allied militant gangs have maintained their open war against the State of Pakistan. Their supplies remain open from Afghanistan making it impossible to eliminate this threat decisively despite major gains made by the army against these terrorists. The entire judicial system of the country has failed to respond to the threat. Security forces are fighting a reactive war where the advantage remains with the terrorists to hit urban soft targets of their choice with surprise and impunity. 5. Afghan Taliban are still not considered as assets for Pakistan nor are they offering any direct support to crush the Kharjee insurgency against Pakistan. Although they have not declared any war against Pakistan, they are extremely unhappy with the way Pakistan has handled the entire crisis. 6. Indian Zionists continue to work on the plan to get Pakistan beaten up by the Americans. They have been on this agenda since 9/11, when they had offered bases to the US to attack Pakistan! It is the Indian desire to create a situation in which an open confrontation is developed between Pakistan and the US where the US would be doing the dirty job of destroying Pakistan to the utter pleasure and advantage of India. US and India have now successfully forged an open and aggressive alliance against “Islamic” threat from Pakistan. Meanwhile Indians are busy trying to crush the Kashmiri uprising and resistance in the valley, taking advantage of the favorable environment in the region against Islamic militancy and Pakistan.

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7. The government in Islamabad remains incapacitated, corrupt and dysfunctional almost turning Pakistan into a banana republic if the army and the Supreme Court were not there to salvage some dignity. The economic and governance collapse is almost total with real possibilities of a street level anarchic chaos unless the regime is changed urgently. This is what both, the Zionists and Kharjees, had planned to bring about from the very beginning and is being facilitated by the corrupt regime. 8. The national media remains equally confused and directionless, even hostage to the Kharjee terrorists and the Neo-Cons. US information warfare has penetrated deep into Pakistani media controlling the direction, content and the perception management of the Pakistani nation. Despite massive devastation and TTP driven war against the State, the media remains dreadfully silent to nail and name the perpetrators. The “free” media has willfully surrendered its “freedom” to the dreaded terrorists. 9. Despite having closest and common national security interests, Pakistan has still not used the power and clout of China to exert itself in the region or in Afghanistan to create a favorable space for both countries. 10. Iran remains isolated from Pakistan despite some cooperation on security and economic levels. Both countries have not yet discussed Afghanistan and American presence seriously nor have forged any common strategy to secure Afghanistan after the US withdrawal or even to force a US withdrawal. 11. Pakistan has still not built any relations with Russia who has great interest in countering US aggressive postures in the Eurasian region and is looking for allies in South and West Asia.

The Challenge and the Response
The biggest failure of Pakistani leadership so far is that they have failed to see the threats emerging from the Neo-Con ideology! The Neo-cons are as sinister an existential threat as the Kharjee terrorists, but in Islamabad Neo-Cons are taken as friends and masters. While Kharjee terrorist threat is considered as the biggest

national security risk, the Neo-Con colonial and hostile agenda against Pakistan and in the region is dismissed as just a conspiracy theory! This sheer lack of political, historic and philosophical vision, touching the limits of stupidity and insanity by the political leadership, has brought Pakistan to this unprecedented critical stage. Pakistan has still not decided if the US presence in Afghanistan is part of the problem or part of the solution for Pakistan’s national security challenges. It cannot get more pathetically ironic than this. It is the US presence in Afghanistan which is causing all the chaos and anarchy in the region: Indians, Kharjees and the terrorism breed under the US umbrella. When Afghan Taliban were in control in Afghanistan between 1996 to 2001, not a single incident of bombings, terrorism and insurgency was reported in Pakistan. Indians had been eliminated from Afghanistan and drugs were not flowing into Pakistan. There was no insurgency in Baluchistan. Pakistan had not lost a single soldier or civilian to political terrorism during that period. TTP never existed. Even if the so called Al-Qaeda existed in Afghanistan, they were kept in strong check by the Afghan Taliban, never causing any security hazard to Pakistan. Even today, a certain mindset exists in the Pakistani government and policy makers that strongly feels that the US must stay in Afghanistan to bring “stability”. They feel that NATO supplies must pass through Pakistan so that Pakistan may maintain leverage over US in Afghanistan. It is believed by them that if Pakistan demands the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, it would make US openly hostile towards the Islamic republic and it would impose sanctions on Islamabad and the country would collapse under the economic meltdown! They believe and propagate that Afghans are not capable of managing their own affairs, hence a foreign Western force is required to eliminate “terrorism” from the region. The Neo-Con perception management and disinformation teams have done a fantastic job at spreading despondency and strategic confusion within the Pakistani leadership. Major segments of the Pakistan government are open collaborators with the Neo-Cons. They are not expected to protect or understand Pakistan’s security needs. But even a segment of the patriots, for lack of understanding of the Neo-Con threat and their great game against Pakistan, believe that the US should continue to stay in Afghanistan and give the above-mentioned reasons as an excuse. This great confusion within the political and military leadership is the precise reason why there is still no Afghan policy or vision in Pakistan despite having suffered so much since the last 10 years. Let us make it clear firmly and decisively: If Pakistan wants to come out of the crisis, there is no option but to be ruthless. 1. There can be no peace in Pakistan if the US remains in Afghanistan. It is the US presence which has brought Pakistan to this brink. The sooner we throw the Americans out, the better. The leverage, which Pakistan has over US for economic and military aid, due to their supply lines passing through Pakistan, is nothing compared to the damages, losses and chaos which is created in the country due to the US presence. 2. The US is broken economically as well as militarily. The two wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have broken the back of the Neo-Con war machine. There is no way the US can threaten Pakistan militarily. This major US vulnerability should be powerfully exploited in strategic negotiations to demand a US withdrawal and to eliminate Indian influence from Afghanistan.

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3. Pakistan must now decisively demand a US withdrawal from the region. BrassTacks Policy Papers 4. A regional political and diplomatic power bloc between Pakistan, China, Iran and Russia can be created which should further bolster Pakistan’s posture in demanding a US withdrawal. All countries are anti-US and want an exit of the western forces from Afghanistan. 5. Pakistan must aggressively and openly engage with all factions of the Afghan conflict and exert its due role in bringing the warring Afghan factions closer for peace. Most of the Northern alliance factions are former Afghan Mujahideen parties of the Afghan Jihad era and can easily be brought back into our fold. So far, no serious attempt has been made to bring them back. 6. Pakistan should proactively and preemptively hit at TTP and Kharjee bases in Afghanistan and exert pressure on the US, NATO and Afghan regime to “do more” to check and control the logistics and supplies of the terrorist networks. The war against Kharjees will have to enter Afghanistan by all covert and overt means. 7. Zero tolerance and no mercy policy towards Kharjee terrorist with special military courts to put to trial and eliminate the captured militants. Since the civilian courts have totally failed to respond to the threat, the clauses in the military law should be invoked, which allow for a military court martial for the captured “civilian” terrorists and insurgents. 8. The Neo-Cons’ influence on Pakistani media and policy making to be eliminated and replaced with indigenous, homegrown national security and media policy to revive the national ideology and patriotism. The crisis is staggering. The challenge remains phenomenal. The stakes are of life and death for this nation. If it were not for the army, the country would have already disintegrated under the two prong Kharjee and Zionist threat axis. Pakistan has never faced such monumental existential threats of such staggering intensity in such a short duration of time. What is cruelly ironic is that this crisis is self created by the leadership since the past 10 years, and has emerged due to the deliberate blunders of policy, diplomacy, politics, strategy and perception management. The solution lies in undoing the damage done on the above -mentioned points. The crisis is still totally manageable in the shortest possible time. The problem is sharply defined and solutions clear. Assets are available, resources are at hand, military strength available to enforce political decisions and the global and regional geo-politics rapidly turning into Pakistan’s favor; the military gaining ground against internal threats and beginning to hard bargain with the foreign forces, but still we see a complete lack of coherence in the national policies. The ship remains rudderless and in seriously turbulent waters. The crisis of leadership is phenomenal, undoing all the sacrifices made and the advantages gained on ground. If saving Pakistan means bringing a regime change in Islamabad first, then so be it! ***********************
NOTE: The Aritcle was originally published in BrassTacks Monthly Security Review, Nov. 2010 (Vol 1. No. 6)

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2 The Zionists’ “War on Terror”

Reshaping of the Muslim World & Pakistan’s Unique Case Study
Zaid Hamid

The sinister struggle for control of Pakistan and the Muslim world between two opposing fascist ideologies of Western / Hindu Zionists and Kharjee Takfiris
The History
Almost ninety years ago, in the beginning of the 20th century, a most shattering and devastating blow was suffered by the Muslim world as its maps were radically re-drawn by the invading and victorious Western powers when the Ottoman Empire was defeated and dismembered. The maps of the Middle East were re-drawn after the First World War by the Zionists, a fact one would not be able to look up in history books. People know and are reminded in continuum about the Germans and the war in Europe, but what they are tactfully kept oblivious about is that there existed a Muslim state in the beginning of the 20th century, called the ‘Ottoman Empire’, which stretched across continents from Russia to North Africa. It was the ‘One Single Muslim Empire’. After the First World War, this empire was Balkanized, creating smaller, modern states as seen today. It was during this outrageous and sacrilegious pillage of the Muslim lands that the State of Israel was sanctioned to the world Jewry by the triumphant British Empire. It took another great war a few years later, with horrendous bloodshed and destruction of humanity, both in the East and the West, to finally materialize the dream of the Zionist Jewry – the State of Israel in the Holy Lands. A political, military and ideological dagger pierced the Muslim heartland. Pakistan was born almost at the same time as Israel. Both countries, representing two diametrically opposite religious ideologies hostile to each other, were born to be enemies and have remained in a state of covert war ever since. Against all odds, Pakistan rose to become a nuclear power, the only one in the Muslim world posing a direct and existential threat to the state of Israel and world Jewry.

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India, a State which is secular on paper only, is led and controlled by idol worshiping Brahmin pagans with extreme hostility towards Pakistan, hence becoming a natural born collaborator of the Zionist State. The following quote by the founding father of the Jewish State completes this geopolitical and strategic equation in totality:

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“The world Zionist movement should not be neglectful of the dangers of Pakistan to it. And Pakistan now should be its first target, for this ideological State is a threat to our existence. And Pakistan, the whole of it, hates the Jews and loves the Arabs. “This lover of the Arabs is more dangerous to us than the Arabs themselves. For that matter, it is most essential for the world Zionism that it should now take immediate steps against Pakistan. “Whereas the inhabitants of the Indian peninsula are Hindus whose hearts have been full of hatred towards Muslims, therefore, India is the most important base for us to work there from against Pakistan. “It is essential that we exploit this base and strike and crush Pakistanis, enemies of Jews and Zionism, by all disguised and secret plans.”
David Ben Gurion, the first Israeli Prime Minister. His words, as printed in the Jewish Chronicle, August 1967

The Environment
Present times are witnessing the unraveling of the most sinister and evil plans devised against humanity since the last hundred years. The Soviet Union met their Waterloo in their Afghan misadventure, the war that triggered the demise of the Soviet Union and the roll back of the Soviet Empire. That was the period when the map of the world actually started to unfold the way we see it today. Since that time, the strategy of the dominant Neo-con Evangelicals or Zionists has been to dismember the hostile states into smaller countries we see today. After nearly 90 years the maps are being re-drawn once again, marking smaller states. First the Soviet Union was dismembered, then they came closer to home, in Europe, and Yugoslavia was made the next target. Yugoslavia and Soviet Union, as countries, have been wiped out from the world map. The latter had the largest, most powerful military in the world and Yugoslavia possessed the fifth largest army in the world, but both the countries do not exist today.

Yugoslavia was once a country – divided into smaller states in 90’s under 4th generation war doctrine which is now applied in the greater Middle East on Muslim lands!

After having accomplished this mission in the 1900’s, their attention now focused towards the Middle East. The Soviet threat being safely eradicated, the American Neo-cons were free to operate in the Middle East and create the greater Middle East. Subsequently, we find them invading Afghanistan and then Iraq. Their strategy now is to create headless states, dismember them into smaller components and create enough anarchy in the region, destabilizing these small states so that they are incapable of posing any resistance to the organized state of Israel. Basically, all the major Muslim countries in the Middle East are being dismembered; their maps are being re-drawn. As the 21st century unfolds, the contemporary times are witnessing yet another epic struggle within the Muslim heartland. The Muslim world is desperately fighting an existential war, this time against two violent ideologies which have invaded from opposing prongs. The entire Muslim heartland – from the Arabian Peninsula to the greater Middle East including Pakistan - is the battle ground, and the ultimate prize. Not just that the heart and soul of the Muslim world is at stake, even the geography is once again threatened to be altered radically.
Somalia – another headless failed state being dismembered.

Neo-con objective of WOT -- Division of large Muslim countries and making them headless failed states! Iraq, Sudan down. Libya, Somalia, Yemen, Syria, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Iran and Pakistan are already under attack at various levels!

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In terms of phenomenon and scale, the threat is so severe and unique that it has baffled even the finest Muslim thinkers, philosophers, Generals and analysts who are desperately trying to understand and then cope with the staggering emotional turmoil and the ensuing ground violence within the Muslim lands. The ideological, political and military confusion and chaos is so complete within the Muslim world that mature reason and sound logic has almost given way to irrational radicalism or defeated resignation to fate, as violence, anarchy and the dizzying pace of unfortunate events cripple the capacity of the Muslim world to develop even a reactive response let alone a pro-active one. There is no strategic threat analysis, hence no long term response strategy. The Muslim political leadership, despite hanging on to power, has crumbled in totality to rise to the challenges, hence giving a free run to the invaders, leaving the hapless Muslim population to the wolves. Once again it seems sharply clear that the colonial and anarchic invading forces – operating on external and internal axis -- will further attempt to divide, conquer and dismember the Muslim countries into smaller territories. The 4th Generation war deployed in the greater Middle East today was first applied, experimented and perfected upon pro-Soviet Yugoslavia in the last decade of the 20th century, obliterating the country into history. Now the American wars are being waged right into the Muslim heartland, with genuine threats of re-drawing of greater Middle Eastern Maps as well. After bringing death and destruction to Afghanistan and Iraq, Pakistan is now in the eye of the storm, already staggering under the sheer scale of violence, war, chaos as well as political and economic anarchy. However, the threat is still manageable, downslide can be checked and rock solid responses can be built but this remarkable turnaround would need a genuinely great leadership with vision, courage and spiritual prowess to dream and then achieve the seemingly impossible under these desperate conditions.

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The prongs
Today, the Muslim world finds itself between the two proverbial jaws of an alligator, facing the following invading prongs from opposing directions: 1. The Western Crusaders, US, NATO, Neo-Cons and the Zionists. Using the full might of the western military and industrial power, backed by the massive use of information warfare and Psy-ops weapons, another wave of physical colonization of Muslim lands has begun. 2. The Radically anarchic Takfiri Kharjee religious militants. Exploiting the heretical interpretations of religious ideals, these terrorist gangs have been on the rampage within the Muslim lands, primarily targeting Iraq and Pakistan with devastating effects. By declaring war on the Muslim lands from within their territories, the Kharjees have become the most valuable assets for the Western crusaders to justify their global wars and colonization. The War on Terror (WOT) actually means Wars of Crusades by Zionists within the Muslim world for its colonization, using the radical ideology of Kharjees as a justification for invading and forcing the Muslim society to accept this invasion by presenting to them the Kharjee ideology as a bigger threat to the Muslim world. So even if the Kharjee threat is not real in certain lands, creating, fabricating and promoting the phantom bogey through orchestrated media campaigns and psy-ops, remains an integral part of the entire Zionist war effort. While Zionists invade Muslim lands and occupy them, they want the Muslim world to fight and finish off the Kharjees first. On the other hand, it is the ultimate desire of the Kharjees to bring about a massive, high in-

Takfiri and Western Forces - Both are natural allies in the war which is being waged to redraw Middle East by dividing Muslim countires on enthic, linguistic and religious lines!

tensity conflict between the Muslim world and the Crusading Zionists so that a power and leadership vacuum within the Muslim world would allow Kharjees to break out and grab power, just as the Assassins did in the past during the Crusades. The Zionists as well as the Kharjees want each other to finish off the Muslim world, and one is using the bogey of the other to justify their presence within the Muslim heartland and society. Both are waging a war against the Muslim world with devastating effects and the battleground is the Muslim urban societies. In reality, they are often willing partners with the agenda to destroy the status quo within the Muslim world through violent means. The net result for the Muslim world will be total and complete destruction, if any or both of the ideologies are successful.

The Great Game
Having understood the ideology of the two invading prongs, we come to the grand strategic objectives of the Neo-Con foreign policy for the 21st century in the Middle East, Africa and Asia. This is the larger game of the Neo-Cons for which an “enemy” had to be created and the Zionist backed Kharjees played this anarchic role, within the Muslim world, rather brilliantly. 1. Defense and Security of Israel and to create weak, headless States in the Middle East, even changing geography to create a new Middle East. Stopping Muslim countries from acquiring nuclear weapons or destruction of nuclear potential of existing Muslim nations is an integrated part of this objective. The end objective is the so called “greater Israel” 2. Containment and destruction of political and militant Islam. 3. Control of fuel assets. 4. Control of global trading routes, oil pipelines and strategic water ways like Gulf, Suez, Bosporus, horn of Africa, Gibraltar, Malacca straits.

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5. Encirclement and Containment of Russia. BrassTacks Policy Papers 6. Encirclement and Containment of China. We emphasize that everything, repeat – everything that is happening in the ME, Africa and Asia has to do with one or more of these objectives as well as the clash between US foreign policy and the rest of the regional players who have a stake in preventing the US from achieving these objectives. These world wars and global agenda have nothing to do with “war on terror”. The “WOT” is the new great game to gain strategic foothold in the 21st century. Political heavyweight, Zbigniew Brzezinski, clarified the importance of Central Asia to the US plans for global dominance in his book, “The Grand Chessboard”:

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“Ever since the continents started interacting politically, some 500 years ago, Eurasia has been the center of world power”…“For America, the chief geopolitical prize is Eurasia—and America’s global primacy is directly dependent on how long and how effectively its preponderance on the Eurasian continent is sustained”….“How America manages Eurasia is critical. Eurasia is the globe’s largest continent and is geopolitically axial. A power that dominates Eurasia would control two of the world’s three most advanced and economically productive regions. A mere glance at the map also suggests that control over Eurasia would almost automatically entail Africa’s subordination, rendering the Western Hemisphere and Oceania geopolitically peripheral to the world’s central continent. About 75% of the world’s people live in Eurasia and most of the world’s physical wealth as well, both in its enterprises and underneath its soil. Eurasia accounts for 60% of the world’s GNP and about three-fourths of the world’s known energy resources.”
(The Grand Chessboard) To achieve the above stated six Grand strategic objectives, the Muslim lands need to be further dismembered. US forces need to be based within Muslim lands. Ethnic and sectarian wars need to be ignited in order to create “new blood borders” on ethnic and religious lines. Muslim nuclear potential needs to be blunted. Defense of Israel is not possible if Pakistan or Iran possess nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles. If Pakistan does not agree to surrender its nuclear weapons and missile program, then TTP Kharjees have to be deployed to create such mayhem and anarchy within the state that Pakistan becomes a failed and dysfunctional state forcing the world community to “step in” to prevent the “proliferation” of nuclear weapons into “wrong” hands. The New Middle East map planned by the US, for which multiple wars would be launched in the region, is similar to what is shown below. The US government has recently officially denied any such plans, but the events on ground and US force positioning in the region, point towards what the US denies. The modern, easy to understand name for Zionists is Neo-Conservatives Christian Evangelicals and they rule the United States of America today with their ideological allies in London, Tel-Aviv and Delhi. The Christian Zionists believe that the State of Israel must be protected at all costs as that is the place where the final war

Know your enemy -- The emergence of Zionist Christian, Evangelical Neo-con thought in the United States – The Christian Zionists reshaping the entire Muslim world!

with the Anti-Christ, Armageddon, will take place and Christ would return to earth to lead the good Christians. Hence, their fanatical loyalty to Jewish Zionists and their ideals of creating a greater Israel in the Middle East at the cost of the Muslim world. The Crusades of the Middle Ages were religious wars; the Crusades of the 21st century are equally fanatical in religious fervor, driven by the same ideals which drove the frenzy of earlier Crusades. For example – today, Pakistan is in a state of war, fighting an asymmetric high intensity war within its own borders against an Indian backed terrorist insurgency with a religious facade, which is based in the remote tribal regions bordering Afghanistan but is waging a ruthless decentralized war against the State and the civilian population in the mainland urban environment. In the last 3 years alone, on the average, Pakistan has suffered a suicide attack, bomb blast or an attack on the security forces on almost daily basis. Hundreds of the finest officers and soldiers as well as thousands of civilians have given their lives in a war which has drawn staggering toll on Pakistan’s economy and society. At least 3 serving General officers, many other Brigadiers and other senior military officers have died in ambushes, suicide attacks and assaults by the insurgent militants on military and civil installations in major cities of Pakistan. Regional offices of Pakistan’s military led Intelligence agency ISI have been attacked. Even GHQ was targeted for an audacious attempt at targeting military leadership. At one point in Swat, almost 2.5 million people had to leave their homes in a mass migration to allow Pakistan army to conduct military operations in an area bigger than England. Cantonment and sensitive areas of Islamabad, Peshawar, Lahore and Rawalpindi give the looks of cities under fortress defenses. Universities, hospitals, hotels, bazaars, funerals, Masjids, schools – none have escaped the most ruthless and bloody war by the TTP terrorists. Till 2007 and 2008, the TTP was having its reign of terror almost unchecked with large regions of Swat valley and FATA under their influence.

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BrassTacks Policy Papers

But then the army began to get the grips on this new form of 4th generation war for which Pakistan army was not initially trained mentally, emotionally, militarily or logistically. Fighting a high intensity counter insurgency war within its own borders in an urban environment in home cities was not the form of warfare any army would want to fight. Despite lack of any previous experience to fight such a war, Pakistan army performed with stunning success, breaking the back of the insurgency in Swat, capturing the South Waziristan bastion of the terrorists and taking back almost all regions of FATA which were previously under terrorists’ control. It’s not over yet and the war continues in remote tribal regions as well as in the cities where insurgents regularly cause chaos, assassinations and bomb attacks.

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Pakistan army has given great sacrifices to fight the ruthless Zionist backed insurgency of religious fanatics and takfiris

The centre of gravity of the terrorists is in Afghanistan from where they get their weapons, money and have sanctuaries – backed by CIA, Afghan regime and Indian RAW. So far, Pakistan has been fighting a reactive war within its own borders and has left the safe havens of the insurgents untouched inside Afghanistan. On another axis, on a lesser intensity, CIA, RAW and Afghan RAMA have stirred up another insurgency in Baluchistan by supporting the Secular Marxist Pakistani Baluch Separatists seeking to break Baluchistan away from Pakistan. The mode of operations against the State include blowing up gas lines, destroying power cables and State infrastructures as well as attacking security forces and assassinating non-Baluch settlers from rest of the country. Baluchistan consists of 42% area of Pakistan but has only 4% of population divided between Pashtuns, Baluchis, Makranis, Brahwis and Sindhis. With only a small segment of Baluch falling under the spell of armed insurgency and also due to the remoteness of the region, the situation in Baluchistan due to BLA/ BRA militancy is not as critical as it is due to the TTP insurgency but still, it is a serious menace. Military has not been used in Baluchistan as yet and only Para military forces, Police and local militias have been doing the security duties. Apart from these two above mentioned active armed insurgencies, there are secular political parties which have armed wings and also have separatists’ agendas and have been involved in urban violence especially in

Baluch seperatists backed by CIA. Also, Jundullah created within Baluch separatists’ to create anarchy in Iranian Baluchistan

Karachi. Both MQM and ANP maintain armed militias in the city and though they are in the government also, are waging a ruthless and brutal war of assassinations and counter assassinations on the streets in Karachi. Both MQM and ANP are fondly close to India and reject the creation of Pakistan as a State and have dismissed the Islamic ideology of Pakistan. ANP especially had been instrumental since 1947 to dismember Pakistan on ethnic Pashtun lines. Lately, MQM and its leader Altaf Hussein has also been vocal against the creation of Pakistan and has even suggested “reunification”, basically suggesting that India should take control of Pakistan! In future, both these parties could become major threat and turn into active insurgencies especially in Karachi and urban Sindh. For now, while they remain in power politically and are allies of the PPP government, they are also playing the assassination game in a turf war and are keeping their armed wings as insurance policy against any government or military operation against them in future.

Anarchy in Karachi – blocking Pakistan’s lifeline and creating environment for US/NATO invasion with the help of local MQM just as NATO did in BenGhazi port city.

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The strength of a Muslim society lies in its ideology and morality and once you weaken the Islamic ideology and the strong moral and social values that knit the Islamic society together into family and social networks, then that society is ripe for takeover through a foreign invasion. Pakistan is facing multiple insurgencies; Pakistani media is heavily influenced by western corrupt pornographic material and the Indian muck and filth from the Bollywood film industry. Pakistan’s education system has been handed over to the western universities; Pakistani text books are being written and designed by the western universities right now. The education system has polarized the society completely. There are generations who have been brought up in an education system in a society where they cannot speak the native language. This is what they have done to Pakistan. There is financial corruption and mismanagement. Every day riots erupt somewhere in the country. People are literally begging for necessities like water, electricity, power, and gas, the resources that are normally taken for granted. This is what they have reduced Pakistan to today, and this is what they are going to do to many Muslims lands which they are softening up now for this process. Now, using the pretext of Osama Bin laden, US is threatening Pakistan with anther war. Once again, we see US using the pretext of terrorism to justify its planned invasion of another Muslim land. Same strategy, different theatre of war! The same justifications they would give to wage wars against Iran, Saudi Arabia and other Muslim lands. Libya is not already divided into two countries. Sudan is divided. Syria in Turmoil and Yemen at war. More wars are coming in the Muslim lands and Muslim leadership is frozen in time and fear. Once the Muslim lands are softened up through 4th generation war and support to insurgencies and political/religious violence, they will not be able to resist a nuclear weapon armed state of Israel when it starts to expand into the Middle East for the Greater Israel. Israel is the only country in the world which does not have defined boundaries. Since 1948 till today every year the boundaries of Israel change. They annex more settlements, they remove the villages of the Palestinians, they usurp their lands, build walls, re-draw the boundaries. For the last 62 years the Israeli boundaries have been changing constantly; it has no defined boundaries; any land which can be grabbed, whether within the defined boundaries today or even beyond, becomes Israel’s land as per their map. Google the map, search for Greater Israel, and you will see where the Greater Israel stretches to; which Muslim countries come into those lands and then you will know why they are doing this to Middle East including Iraq, Syria, Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia. The Americans have been trying for many years now to stage some kind of an internal coup in Iran but they don’t have any assets on ground. Iran is one country that does not have an American Embassy and an American Embassy is always the nest of spies. It is always a devil’s den wherever they are. In Pakistan, they have made the biggest embassy in the entire region and they’re constructing massive blocks inside, giving clear indications to the Pakistanis that Americans wish to stay here for an indefinitely long time. When the Americans have an embassy on ground, they can do this. In Iran they have a problem; they have to come through second hand sources. They have been try-

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ing for many years now and after the recent elections when President Ahmadinejad was elected, they tried bringing about a revolution even at that time, but that fizzled out. Iranians are pretty tough in this regard and they hang the protestors if it is confirmed that they are working on behalf of the CIA. In the 50’s there was an elected popular government of Musaddaq in Iran, he was a nationalist and he had nationalized the entire oil field and the entire oil companies, which were primarily British petroleum and western oil companies. Roosevelt’s grandson was sent by the CIA with suitcases full of dollars to stage a coup against Musaddaq. He bought off people, groups, gangsters, commoners and even socialists and orchestrated a coup against Musaddaq, consequently dragging him through the streets and hanging him, and then they installed the Shah of Iran as the state head. That is how the Shah of Iran came into power. So, Iran has been a playground for the western intelligence agencies for a long time now. It has become especially important because of this particular government which is maintaining its own independent stance. The Americans are now trying to raise the wave of emotion in this region to give the perception that there is an indigenous revolt brewing in Iran, which is totally false. It’s orchestrated just like it was in Egypt, but in Egypt people were fed up of Hosni Mubarak so they came out in millions. In Iran, they’re not fed up of their leadership that’s why they came out in hundreds. This is the difference between the two.

Egypt unrest – Hosni was hated by his people. The revolution hijacked by CIA!

The ultimate nightmare for the Americans and NATO is that Pakistan and Iran may form a strategic collective security arrangement. Then that alliance can expand to include Saudi Arabia and Turkey as well as China and Russia. It would completely throw the entire American game plan in the region in topsy-turvy because there are a hundred and fifty thousand American western troops and Blackwater in Afghanistan right now and their 84% supply-lines, from toilet paper to helicopters, everything goes from Pakistan; 60% fuel that the Americans and the NATO use in Afghanistan goes from Pakistan as well. This is no conspiracy theory. These are the hard core grand strategic objectives, strategies, policies and operations of the US foreign policy for the 21st century, already set in motion a decade ago through the orchestrated “Pearl Harbor” of 9/11 under the code name War on Terror (WOT). The primary battle grounds chosen for the invasion, occupation and waging multiple theatre high intensity wars are Afghanistan and Iraq, with the entire greater middle East being the theatre of war and now Pakistan being the next direct target and battle ground for the 4th generation war already raging in full intensity with devastating consequences for the

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country. Afghanistan and Iraq are the staging areas for more high intensity wars and for the control of the global trade routes, natural resource regions and for containing hostile ideologies and civilizations; all under the façade of WOT.

Hindu Zionists – Hitching the ride with Western Zionists
Hindu Zionists are no different from their Judeo-Christian counterparts in antipathy towards Islamic world, but suffer from an intrinsic inferiority complex against Muslims due to the fact that the Muslims had ruled India for a thousand years till 1857 and then India fell into the hands of the British for another 90 years. Hindu zealots are burning with anger to avenge their 1000 years of shame and subjugation at the hands of the Muslims, but lack the courage and ferocity to do the job themselves, especially against Pakistan, their archenemy. They need Western Zionists to do the job for them. It is the ultimate dream of their foreign policy and diplomacy to get the western countries to attack and destroy Pakistan. One can still remember the eagerness and impatience of the Indian government to offer bases to the US forces after 9/11 to attack and destroy Pakistan! Just like the Israelis, the Indians also plan to fight Pakistan to the last American! Regarding Hindu Zionists and their objectives, Vijay Prashad, on August 8th, 2001, in a fascinating and thought provoking article titled Hindutva and Zionism, writes:

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“The fantasy entertained by the Hindu Right government is that an alliance with the world's lions (USA-Israel) will allow India to sup at High Table, to eat high on the hog. Certainly the expectation is that trade will follow the military tie-up.For that reason, we see a wholesale sell-out by the Hindu Right to US-Israeli foreign/military policy objectives. The Hindu Right recognize the persistence of US imperialism, and Israeli sub-imperialism -- and they want a piece of the action in South Asia. It appears that the Hindu Right seeks the franchise for US lackey against what it sees as Islamic fundamentalism and Chinese Communism. But the alliance with Israel is not so strange after all, because at the ideological level, Hindutva is much like Zionism, for both extol the importance of the Race-State, and both cast aspersions at the presence of a Muslim minority. An India-born analyst at the Zionist Freeman Center in Houston, Texas, makes just this connection: "Islamic fascists see Bharat [India] as the soft spot to propagate their irrational creed and foment violence. India tries to placate them. Israel expels them. This is what Bharat should do. If they hate Hindu Rashtra so much they are free to leave for dar-ul Islam." At the unofficial level, the links seem to be growing. Among semi-fascists the links are deep. The restless lions of west and south Asia join the tigers of East Asia to encircle China and the predominantly Muslim states of west and central Asia.”
Having seen through the American game, it is time to build the responses. Pakistan is now taking the full brunt of this massive 4GW. As a softening up operation, a bloody overt as well as covert war has been waged against Pakistan on all axis –by exploiting internal political instabilities, igniting sectarian wars, supporting insurgencies, staging economic collapse, launching media psy-ops –and to target the country diplomatically under the pretext of supporting “terrorism”. Creating “terrorist” groups within Pakistan and in other Muslim lands is as critical a dimension of this war as waging the “pre-emptive war” against them. Though, no Muslim country,

from North Africa to the Far East, is safe in this war, Pakistan is the hotly contested battleground now. These challenges and the crises are also the greatest of opportunities for Pakistan. America’s wars have turned into military and economic disasters for the occupation forces. Under the staggering burden of two active wars and global deployments, the US economy at home is collapsing. NATO and US supplies pass through Pakistan giving incredible leverage to Pakistan to decide the fate of the US war in Afghanistan. Despite facing the most ruthless wave of terrorism and insurgencies, the Pakistan army has held its ground and emerged triumphant against overwhelming odds. Pakistan’s strategic and nuclear assets still remain safe. Now, following is the brief summary of the ridiculous situation in which Pakistan finds itself today due to these US “dirty wars”. It is a masterpiece of Pakistan’s foreign and national security policy blunders, failures and confusion, fully exploited by the Zionists and Kharjee Fascists. 1. US is threatening to invade Pakistani tribal areas and regularly attack targets of its choice using Drones and other means. Relations between the US and Pakistan are tense, nervous and based on mistrust and betrayal. The US supplies pass through Pakistan, making the US vulnerable to developments in Pakistan. War in Afghanistan is not going as the US had planned, creating a military and political crisis for the United States and NATO, making the US even more nervous and jittery regarding Pakistan. The US now want Pakistan to fight Afghan Taliban and other resistance groups on behalf of the Americans, and is using all forms of carrots and sticks to push Pakistan into another war in North Waziristan. Now with OBL drama, another war directly threatening Pakistan is just around the corner. 2. Pakistan is still not sure about its role in Afghanistan and remains clueless regarding an Afghan policy and has no defined rules of engagement with the US. Even after nearly 10 years of Afghan war, Pakistan neither has a vision to protect its interests and assets in Afghanistan nor any defined and declared national security goals. Despite the anarchic chaos and the conflict within Pakistan due to US presence in Afghanistan, the government and the military is still not sure what is good for Pakistan – American presence in Afghanistan or their withdrawal from it!! 3. Kabul government remains hostile to Islamabad and is supporting multiple insurgencies, aiding the Indians to establish bases all along the western border, staging terror campaigns inside Pakistan and protecting wanted terrorists. Pakistan has not made any significant breakthrough in the Northern alliance nor taken any independent initiative to play an aggressive role as a peacemaker in Afghanistan. Islamabad’s hesitation and lack of confidence to get involved is fatal. 4. TTP Kharjees, Al-Qaeda and their allied militant gangs have maintained their open war against the State of Pakistan. Their supplies remain open from Afghanistan making it impossible to eliminate this threat decisively despite major gains made by the army against these terrorists. The entire judicial system of the country has failed to respond to the threat. Security forces are fighting a reactive war where the advantage remains with the terrorists to hit urban soft targets of their choice with surprise and impunity. 5. Afghan Taliban and other Pasthun resistance are still not treated as assets for Pakistan nor are they offering any direct support to crush the Kharjee insurgency against Pakistan. Although they have not declared any war against Pakistan, they are extremely unhappy with the way Pakistan has handled the entire crisis.

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6. Indian Zionists continue to work on the plan to get Pakistan beaten up by the Americans. They have been on this agenda since 9/11, when they had offered bases to the US to attack Pakistan! It is the Indian desire to create a situation in which an open confrontation is developed between Pakistan and the US where the US would be doing the dirty job of destroying Pakistan to the utter pleasure and advantage of India. US and India have now successfully forged an open and aggressive alliance against “Islamic” threat from Pakistan. Meanwhile Indians are busy trying to crush the Kashmiri uprising and resistance in the valley, taking advantage of the favorable environment in the region against Islamic militancy and Pakistan. 7. The government in Islamabad remains incapacitated, corrupt and dysfunctional almost turning Pakistan into a banana republic if the army and the Supreme Court were not there to salvage some dignity. The economic and governance collapse is almost total with real possibilities of a street level anarchic chaos unless the regime is changed urgently. This is what both, the Zionists and Kharjees, had planned to bring about from the very beginning and is being facilitated by the corrupt regime. 8. The national media remains equally confused and directionless, even hostage to the Kharjee terrorists and the Neo-Cons. US information warfare has penetrated deep into Pakistani media controlling the direction, content and the perception management of the Pakistani nation. Despite massive devastation and TTP driven war against the State, the media remains dreadfully silent to nail and name the perpetrators. The “free” media has willfully surrendered its “freedom” to the dreaded terrorists. 9. Despite having closest and common national security interests, Pakistan has still not used the power and clout of regional friendly countries like China, Iran, Turkey and Saudi Arabia to exert itself in the region or in Afghanistan to create a favorable space for Muslim countries. 10. Iran remains isolated from Pakistan despite some cooperation on security and economic levels. Both countries have not yet discussed Afghanistan and American presence seriously nor have forged any common strategy to secure Afghanistan after the US withdrawal or even to force a US withdrawal. Iran’s present stance in support of Kashmir and to support Pakistan against American threats is a very positive welcome development which must be reciprocated by Pakistan in equal warmth. 11. Americans are trying to create another “Gulf War” between Arab and Persian Muslims. Pakistan must play the role of mediator immediately to bring down the frictions between Muslim nations around gulf else Muslim world would be doomed. 12. Pakistan has still not built any relations with Russia who has great interest in countering US aggressive postures in the Eurasian region and is looking for allies in South and West Asia.

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The Challenge and the Response
The biggest failure of Pakistani leadership so far is that they have failed to see the threats emerging from the Neo-Con ideology! The Neo-cons are as sinister an existential threat as the Kharjee terrorists, but in Islamabad Neo-Cons are taken as friends and masters. While Kharjee terrorist threat is considered as the biggest national security risk, the Neo-Con colonial and hostile agenda against Pakistan and in the region is dismissed as just a conspiracy theory! This sheer lack of political, historic and philosophical vision, touching the limits of stupidity and insanity by the political leadership, has brought Pakistan to this unprecedented critical stage.

Pakistan has still not decided if the US presence in Afghanistan is part of the problem or part of the solution for Pakistan’s national security challenges. It cannot get more pathetically ironic than this. It is the US presence in Afghanistan which is causing all the chaos and anarchy in the region: Indians, Kharjees and the terrorism breed under the US umbrella. When Afghan Taliban were in control in Afghanistan between 1996 to 2001, not a single incident of bombings, terrorism and insurgency was reported in Pakistan. Indians had been eliminated from Afghanistan and drugs were not flowing into Pakistan. There was no insurgency in Baluchistan. Pakistan had not lost a single soldier or civilian to political terrorism during that period. TTP never existed. Even if the so called Al-Qaeda existed in Afghanistan, they were kept in strong check by the Afghan Taliban, never causing any security hazard to Pakistan. Even today, a certain mindset exists in the Pakistani government and policy makers that strongly feels that the US must stay in Afghanistan to bring “stability”. They feel that NATO supplies must pass through Pakistan so that Pakistan may maintain leverage over US in Afghanistan. It is believed by them that if Pakistan demands the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, it would make US openly hostile towards the Islamic republic and it would impose sanctions on Islamabad and the country would collapse under the economic meltdown! They believe and propagate that Afghans are not capable of managing their own affairs; hence a foreign Western force is required to eliminate “terrorism” from the region. The Neo-Con perception management and disinformation teams have done a fantastic job at spreading despondency and strategic confusion within the Pakistani leadership. Major segments of the Pakistan government are open collaborators with the Neo-Cons. They are not expected to protect or understand Pakistan’s security needs. But even a segment of the patriots, for lack of understanding of the Neo-Con threat and their great game against Pakistan, believe that the US should continue to stay in Afghanistan and give the above-mentioned reasons as an excuse. This great confusion within the political leadership is the precise reason why there is still no Afghan policy or vision in Pakistan despite having suffered so much since the last 10 years. Let us make it clear firmly and decisively: If Pakistan wants to come out of the crisis, there is no option but to be ruthless. 1. There can be no peace in Pakistan if the US remains in Afghanistan. It is the US presence which has brought Pakistan to this brink. The sooner we throw the Americans out, the better. The leverage, which Pakistan has over US for economic and military aid, due to their supply lines passing through Pakistan, is nothing compared to the damages, losses and chaos which is created in the country due to the US presence. 2. The US is broken economically as well as militarily. The two wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have broken the back of the Neo-Con war machine. There is no way the US can threaten Pakistan militarily. This major US vulnerability should be powerfully exploited in strategic negotiations to demand a US withdrawal and to eliminate Indian influence from Afghanistan. 3. Pakistan must now decisively demand a US withdrawal from the region. 4. A regional political and diplomatic power bloc between Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, China, Iran, Turkey and

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Russia can be created which should further bolster Pakistan’s posture in demanding a US withdrawal. All countries are anti-US and want an exit of the western forces from Afghanistan. BrassTacks Policy Papers 5. Pakistan, in cooperation with Iran, Saudi Arabia and Turkey must aggressively and openly engage with all factions of the Afghan conflict and exert its due role in bringing the warring Afghan factions closer for peace. Most of the Northern alliance factions are former Afghan Mujahideen parties of the Afghan Jihad era and can easily be brought back into our fold. So far, no serious attempt has been made to bring them back. 6. Pakistan should proactively and preemptively hit at TTP and Kharjee bases in Afghanistan and exert pressure on the US, NATO and Afghan regime to “do more” to check and control the logistics and supplies of the terrorist networks. The war against Kharjees will have to enter Afghanistan by all covert and overt means. 7. Zero tolerance and no mercy policy towards Kharjee terrorist with special military courts to put to trial and eliminate the captured militants. Since the civilian courts have totally failed to respond to the threat, the clauses in the military law should be invoked, which allow for a military court martial for the captured “civilian” terrorists and insurgents. 8. The Neo-Cons’ influence on Pakistani media and policy making to be eliminated and replaced with indigenous, homegrown national security and media policy to revive the national ideology and patriotism. The crisis is staggering. The challenge remains phenomenal. The stakes are of life and death for this nation. If it were not for the army, the country would have already disintegrated under the two prong Kharjee and Zionist threat axis. Pakistan has never faced such monumental existential threats of such staggering intensity in such a short duration of time. What is cruelly ironic is that this crisis is self created by the leadership since the past 10 years, and has emerged due to the deliberate blunders of policy, diplomacy, politics, and strategy and perception management. The solution lies in undoing the damage done on the above -mentioned points. The crisis is still totally manageable in the shortest possible time. The problem is sharply defined and solutions clear. Assets are available, resources are at hand, military strength available to enforce political decisions and the global and regional geo-politics rapidly turning into Pakistan’s favor; the military gaining ground against internal threats and beginning to hard bargain with the foreign forces, but still we see a complete lack of coherence in the national policies. The ship remains rudderless and in seriously turbulent waters. The crisis of leadership is phenomenal, undoing all the sacrifices made and the advantages gained on ground. If saving Pakistan means bringing a regime change in Islamabad first, then so be it! Just imagine that if the supply-route from Pakistan is blocked, due to any reason, either due to anarchy, hostile public sentiments or due to a strategic alliance between Pakistan and Iran, 150,000 western troops in Afghanistan would be dead meat. The entire US game plan of staying in Afghanistan and trying to come down southwards through Baluchistan into the Gulf Waters, will end. From one side they’re encircling Iran, and from the other, they are encircling Pakistan and then they are in the soft belly of China and Central Asia. Afghanistan is the most strategic location for the entire Asian continent right now. But the American presence there depends upon Pakistan’s support. And that is why they fear the coming together of Pakistan and Iran, because Iran already has an ideologically motivated government, though they

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are not a nuclear-weapon state but they are a very strong nation. In Pakistan, we have very organized, much disciplined armed forces and they are keeping this federation together. They are not secular, they are ideologically motivated, are pro-Islam, anti-American, anti-Indian and they are the source of stability in the region. And Pakistan is a still the only nuclear-weapon force in the Muslim world. The worst fear that the Americans have is of Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Iran getting into a closer defensive cooperation of the Islamic block in a collective security arrangement. While they have a corrupt government in Pakistan, they’re working feverishly to dismember the Pakistani state. Insha’Allah they will never be able to do that because the patriots and the armed forces people have understood the game. But In Iran, they have to topple that government in quick time because the more they delay the possibility of Iran becoming a nuclear-weapon state or Pakistan getting rid of its democracy, increases. They are also worried that a patriotic government may come in Pakistan and form an alliance with Iran and other regional countries like Saudi Arabia, Turkey, China and Russia. This kind of security block is something they’re trying to prevent. This region has many nuclear-weapon states in close proximity. Russia is a nuclear-weapon state, so are China, Pakistan, India, and Iran is becoming one. So this region is the most explosive and volatile and of course the Americans are sitting in the heart of it: In Afghanistan. While they are reshaping the Middle East, the actual focus of the Americans would be on Pakistan and on a secondary level, on Iran. In Pakistan, they have already annihilated the political government. The Pakistani government is totally pro-American, doing whatever the Americans are telling them to do. Another point worth mentioning is that often the world media projects Pakistan as the epicenter of terror. That Pakistan is a failing state and the world should take away the nuclear weapons from Pakistan. This would be the greatest blunder that humanity would commit if Pakistan is brought under pressure. The civil society, the patriotic elements, and the people who are seeking the truth- the alternate media, they must see through this Zionist game. They must acknowledge the fact that Pakistan remains the last obstacle in the Israel, Zionists and Neo-cons’ expansion plan in the greater Middle East because Pakistani armed forces train the armed forces of the entire Middle Eastern Muslim countries. Pakistan in the past has always been called for help when Israel had attacked Egypt and Syria in 1967and 1974. These countries had requested Pakistan and Pakistani Air defense units for help. Pakistani fighter pilots went to Egypt and Syria and Pakistan is the only Muslim country in the world which shot down Israeli aircraft in an air to air combat. This is a fact that nobody knows in the world. That is why the Israelis are terribly scared of Pakistan. Pakistanis have a history of shooting them down. They have a history of defending the Arab lands and that is why they say they need Pakistan. One of the greatest reasons for bogging down Pakistani forces inside Pakistan was this precise fact that Israel does not want Pakistani forces to be free to defend Arab Muslim lands when Israel starts to change the geography of the Muslim world. Indians have joined hands with the western Zionists in this evil game against Pakistan. The projection about Pakistan that The Indians also give in the western media is cunning, evil, and sinister. It is a propaganda disinformation war against the Pakistani state. They are raising the western emotions against Pakistan and they want to get Pakistan beaten up from the west. In reality Pakistan is not just stabilizing Asia but also the Middle East and the Greater Middle East. Pakistan exists in the eye of the storm. Pakistanis are fighting an existential war not just for their own country but also

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for the entire Ummah. If Pakistan goes down, Allah forbid, there is no power on earth stopping Israeli and Hindu Zionists’ expanding into Asia and Middle East. The threats of “Islamic” nuclear weapons are the balancing factor and the protective shield that Muslim world has.

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Pakistan nuclear potential – provides security shied to Muslim world and threatens Israeli and Hindu Zionist states

Muslim world has no other option now but to form a united Islamic security block. Either we stand united or we fall divided! The threat is not just for one nation or a few. The entire Ummah is under attack and on the verge of being annihilated if we don’t wake up and rise to forge a united, aggressive and pro-active defense of our faith, ideology, honor and lands. We must resist with dignity! There is no other path of honor and glory! *************************

3 Zaid Hamid with Mark Glenn on Osam Bin Laden “Killing”

The OBL drama in Abbottabad, Pakistan, is undoubtedly a precursor to the American invasion of Pakistan. It is a great insult of the intelligence of the sane people of the world; how can anyone ever believe that a man that the Americans have supposedly been hunting for twenty years and who has died nine times before, is ultimately killed in the Pakistani city of Abbottabad. Then they say they dumped his body in the sea, and are not even releasing the video or the pictures. Secondly, we would never hear in the American media that during this so-called operation, an American helicopter was also shot down and American troops were killed. The helicopter wreckage is there and everyone has seen it. If we search on the net for ‘the helicopter shot down in Abbottabad’, we find the images of the wrecked helicopter. We know that it was shot down by Pakistani Forces because the helicopter had sneaked into Pakistani air space. When the Americans reached that town, they did not declare their identification, so the Pakistani Air defence unit had shot them down. Only then, did they expose themselves and said that they were their allies on a mission there. Who knows what happened in that compound? For my money, they could have killed Afghan families there or cows or sheep, who knows? All information that is coming out is controlled and released by the CIA. There is absolutely no corroboration of anything. The fact of the matter is that we know that Osama never lived there. But that is immaterial now; whether he was there or not there; whether they killed Afghan family or someone else’s family; but what matters is what is going to happen after that; the fall out. Immediately after that we saw that the American regime, the Zionists, who are compulsive liars, lied; just like they lied about Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction; Colin Powell bluffed the world. They released pictures and slides that were all fakes, and were created and orchestrated, photoshopped by the CIA, to fool the world into believing that Iraq had biological, nuclear and chemical weapons; they declared a war on Iraq on these allegations. Just imagine this figure; over 1.5 million Iraqis have been killed and 4 million Muslims of Iraq had to migrate to other countries. They have not broken down Iraq supposedly into 3 or 4 different countries; though within Iraq there are regions which are totally autonomous like Kurdistan and southern Shia state. But they have decapitated Iraq; they have destroyed its military potential. They do not care for the insurgency, violence, riot, unrest, kidnapping going on, because it is not a threat to the state of Israel. This is their plan for the Middle East; breaking down huge Muslim countries either into smaller countries, like they have done in Sudan or creating enough

anarchy so that the country remains embroiled in its own civil war, conflict and unrest and is unable to pose any threat to any neighbouring adventures by the Zionists. BrassTacks Policy Papers

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As far as Pakistan is concerned, for many years we knew that eventually they will come after Pakistan because of the nuclear weapons. Not only we have nuclear weapons, we also have the delivery mechanism; we also have an ideology which is seriously passionate about its history, identity and faith. A nation built on ideology, a nation strong enough to defend itself and defend the people of its own faith and other good human beings of the world; these are dangerous nations. There are two countries in the world which want to expand their borders. One of them is India which wants to expand to the entire Indian subcontinent. Other country is Israel, but they cannot expand as long as Pakistan offers a nuclear umbrella to the Muslim world. Pakistan has defence mechanism and arrangements for the neighbouring countries, particularly Arabs, and especially the Saudis, because we have religious and emotional attachment to these places of Muslim holy lands. Pakistanis have intense attachment for the rest of the Muslim world; that is why David Gorian, the founding father of Israel had told the Israeli nation in 1948 that they were not afraid of Arabs but of the friends of the Arabs; they were afraid of Pakistan. They said they could deal with the Arabs, they could over-run them; but the nation of Israel had to be conscious of the threats posed by the state of Pakistan. And Pakistan has proven their fears to be well-founded because in the Arab wars of 1967 and 1973, when the Arab forces were decimated, it was Pakistani armed forces which had been deployed in Syria, Egypt, Iraq and Jordan, and Pakistani Air Force shot down Israeli aircraft in air to air combat. If we look at the statistics, we find that the Pakistani air force is the only air force in the world, which has actually shot down Israel aircraft in air to air combat. The state of Pakistan is an ideological state which came into being because of its devotion to religion. The reason why Israel and America feel threatened by Pakistan is the fact that it is the most Islamic country in the world. This, along with the fact that it is a nuclear state; it stands as a serious threat to their expansion of Zionist and imperialistic projects in that part of the world. When Richard Holbrooke became the representative of Obama regime in the region, he developed the Af-Pak doctrine. It meant that now not only Afghanistan but Pakistan would also be considered a battlefield. This was a part of Obama’s doctrine ever since he came into power. We knew back then that the Americans were going to extend the war into Pakistan sooner or later. We are nuclear armed, very disciplined and organized army. The only way to soften up Pakistan, to weaken

This softening up process has been going on for the last five – six years. In the modern terms, this war that they have imposed on Pakistan is called the fourth generation war. These wars are not fought by the armies on the borders; but these are fought by irregular forces in the urban environment. They are fought by militia, by the terrorist gangs. And they weaken the state from within to that extent where external forces can move in, to break the country into smaller countries. There is the example of Yugoslavia; it was a huge country, fifth largest in the world and the strongest country in Europe; when NATO decided to break it down, they instigated civil war in it. Bosnians fought with the Serbs, Serbs with Croatians and Bosnians; with Macedonians, Albanians, and Montenegrins; and when the country was on the verge of implosion, Dayton Peace Agreement was signed by the NATO and the Americans. Richard Holbrooke was the envoy, interestingly, even at that time. He signed the Dayton Peace Agreement; six countries were created out of one land. This is precisely what they plan to do with Pakistan. The problem with Yugoslavia was that NATO supplies did not go through Yugoslavia and Yugoslavia was not a nuclear-armed state. In order to dismember Pakistan, they have to bog down Pakistani armed forces so much that the Pakistan army would have to fight a war for its own survival, and they would not be able to pose any threat to Israel, when Israel starts to expand. So either they take away the Nuclear assets, which is ideal for them; or they embroil Pakistan into a massive civil war, so that Pakistan’s command and control centre breaks down. If that happens, the power structure breaks down, resources and communication systems break down, the leadership is killed and decapitated, and Pakistan army is left distributed into small pockets fighting reactive war on borders. In that case, even the nuclear armed Pakistan Army, having the nuclear weapons, will not have the capability to launch them and pose any threat to

Zaid Hamid with Mark Glenn

Pakistani armed forces, was to support multiple insurgencies inside Pakistan; terrorist groups and gangs which would wage a massive suicide and terrorist campaign, bombing, deploying explosive devices and attacking Pakistani state and forces. In the last five years, 35,000 Pakistanis have died. There is almost one attack every day on Pakistani state, on security forces, on children, on schools, on hospitals and markets; they have almost turned Pakistan into Baghdad, Iraq.

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Israel. To launch a nuclear weapon means to have an elaborate satellite communication system network, codes, GPS, defined coordinates; this is elaborate technology. You do not launch nuclear weapons like catapults. If you take down the Command, Control, Communication and Intelligence network, the Pakistan army will be incapacitated.

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The moment Osama bin Laden drama was created; we found the language of NATO and UN changing towards Pakistan. On the other hand, all the militant and terrorist groups that were supposedly allied with the Al-Qaida, threatened to wage a massive war in Pakistan against the Pakistani Armed Forces, not against the Americans, interestingly. Even if it is true, whatever happened in Abbottabad, Pakistani forces were not involved; it is the Americans who were involved! Technically any group that is supporting Osama should be waging a war against the Americans, not against the Pakistanis! And immediately we also find the language of the Indians changing as well, because the Indians want to fight to the last American; they are so smart that they do not want to wage a war against Pakistan using their own troops and resources. They want the NATO and the Americans to beat Pakistan up. That is why, the Indians are always saying to the Americans that Afghanistan or Iran is not the problem; Indians are willing to give bases to the Americans. They say that Pakistan is the epicentre of terror so let’s join hands and beat Pakistan up because taking out Pakistan’s nuclear assets is the ultimate goal of the Indians and the Israelis. That is why, we find Indian, Israeli, Zionist American axis, as well as the axis of the terrorist groups that are waging a war, insurgencies and terrorism inside Pakistan. Interestingly, all these terrorist groups who are waging a massive war in Pakistan are based in Afghanistan right under the patronage of Indian RAW and American CIA. So, on one hand, Pakistan is stuck between proverbial jaws of an alligator; on one hand you have terrorist groups on the other hand, you have state terrorist groups, like CIA, RAW and Mossad, and Israeli government and the Neocons. This is where Pakistan stands today; and in the coming months the entire world community will go to the UN. They are going to wage a war of terror in Pakistan; they want to turn Pakistan into Iraq. The most incompetent, treacherous, ruthless and sold-out government is in place in Islamabad at the moment and it has sold the country to the IMF, World Bank and Neocons. They have almost spent 50 million dollars this year buying out Pakistani media. The entire

Pakistan’s own media is doing this because they are paid by the CIA. On one hand, we have psy ops going, on the other hand, we have terrorists and insurgencies. On the third axis, we have the international diplomacy and politics, which is now going to encircle Pakistan using the so-called world community; the same world community which authorized NATO raids on Libya. These are kangroo courts where they all sit together and decide which country is a terrorist and which country should be bombed. The coalition of the Neocons will gather in the same way they gathered and passed a winning resolution against Iraq. In a couple of months, they will create a global environment against Pakistan, and try to put an embargo on Pakistan. Already the Congress is saying that they should stop the money they are giving to Pakistan. And on the other hand, they will put pressure on Pakistan saying that since Pakistan is facing insurgencies and terrorism; Pakistani nuclear assets are not safe and can fall in the hands of terrorists, so international coalition must move in to secure Pakistan’s nuclear assets; and since Pakistani Armed Forces are not going to hand over the nuclear weapons; that is why the world community should bomb Pakistan. The moment they are going to bomb Pakistan, the terrorist and insurgent groups from Afghanistan are going to move in, India is also going to move their forces and Pakistanis would be caught in a three prong attack from all axes. This is the war that is building up, and by the end of the year, we will actually see it happening. God forbid, unless we have a patriotic government in Islamabad, that can use and mobilize the political and diplomatic cloud, our next interview may be through a war zone. I will be fighting for survival for my country, for myself, for my nation; because we know it is coming. This is exactly the way the Iraqis were surrounded. They saw it coming but they could not do anything to prevent it. Pakistan still can prevent it, provided, Pakistani armed forces, overthrow this government, bring in a regime change and take a stand. The Army is stuck between the Devil and the deep blue sea; if they take over the government, the world community will say that the economy is already bankrupt and now the Pakistan Army will not be able to run the country. The Army is seeing the country falling apart right in front of their eyes. This is really a crisis situation for Pakistan right now.

Zaid Hamid with Mark Glenn

Pakistani media cartels have been bought; they have penetrated the anchors, the analysts, everybody is massively bought. There are massive psy ops which are promoting the concept of Pakistan falling apart; promoting the concept that Osama bin Laden was actually found here, and Pakistan is at fault and Pakistan Army and ISI should be put under embargo and Pakistani Nuclear assets should be taken away.

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One very fascinating thing about Pakistan’s geopolitics is the fact that Pakistan is a strongest Muslim ally of China as well. In terms of defence, Pakistan has two parallel programs going; one, Pakistan’s defence cooperation with the West, where Pakistan is taking the F-16s and the western equipment. On the other hand, Pakistan is simultaneously developing Joint Strike Fighters with the Chinese Air Force. And Pakistan’s entire nuclear program is actually built with the help of Chinese. We use Chinese satellites, communication equipment, air craft, and radars. So basically Pakistan is a strong ally of Chinese military establishment as well. This is where the insurance policy of Pakistan is; secondly, Pakistan Army still knows that NATO’s 150,000 troops are in Afghanistan. If there is turmoil in Pakistan, the supply lines of these troops will be cut because 80% of their supplies and 64% of fuel goes through Pakistan. If NATO pushes Pakistan beyond a certain limit, or if there is chaos and unrest which is not in control of Pakistani establishment, that chaos can block the NATO supplies which can choke the Americans into Afghanistan where they will be sitting ducks for the rising insurgencies of Taliban. So it is a tricky situation for the Americans and the NATO as well. These are the advantages that Pakistan has which Yugoslavia did not have. Yugoslavia was an ally of the Soviets but at that time even the Soviet Union had broken down and could not come to help Yugoslavia; but China is a strongest rising power, looking the Americans into the eyes and standing behind Pakistan. We are a 170 million people in Pakistan and we are martial races. In the entire north western region of Pakistan, there are 5 million Pashtun tribes, and every house has got an AK47, or a rocket launcher or a machine gun or even an anti-air-craft gun. Pakistan Army is about 3 quarters of a million, about 700,000 men and along with them we have about 500,000 paramilitary forces, and few hundred thousand police, but every household in Pakistani rural area has some form of weapon or another. So the paramilitary, the militia, the local volunteers of Pakistan actually liberated Kashmir; today the Kashmir that we have was liberated by the tribal groups from the Pashtun region, not by the Pakistan Army. It was the tribal groups that fought against the Indian Army in 1948 to liberate the Kashmir that we have today. And the people who are resisting the Americans, and the NATO and before that who resisted the Soviets in Afghanistan, are not the Afghan National Army; they were the farmers, the shepherds, the poorest people of the Afghan and Pashtun society who fought with the Soviets and sacrificed their homes and families. Since they are used to living on bear minimum life style, on less than a dollar a day is their normal life, so you cannot really destroy their home, you cannot really take anything away from them because they do not have anything in the first place. The Americans and NATO are forced to say that AK47 rifle is defeating the entire might of the American and NATO forces. Therefore, if you are actually talking about the armed men that can be raised in Pakistan who can fight against the enemy, that number can actually run to 5 million fighting, fully armed men. They are not only armed but also fully trained. This is our culture. Almost everyone knows how to use AK47.

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We see all these ridiculous stories circulating about Osama bin Laden now. Way back in 2003, Madeleine Albright, actually said on record that Osama bin Laden had died but the news was not being broken until the very last part of the presidency of Bush, in order to help him out for his next elections. Since Madeleine Albright had broken this news, Osama bin Laden’s news was not used at that time. But when Bush was leaving, he had handed over an unfinished job in this region to Obama. That unfinished job was to denuclearize Pakistan. Bush started this war, Obama had to finish it; but after three years, the American economy is burning itself away. American dollar is now no more the reserve currency in so many state banks. Dollar has been taking many hits. Obama’s own ratings were less than 20 %, and the presidential elections are coming next year. All these things; the unfinished job of denuclearizing Pakistan, combined with the fact that they could not win in Afghanistan, Obama was in a hurry to deliver something for his next candidacy and also to mobilize the public opinion before he leaves. Whether he wins or not, he wanted to put Pakistan in a position where this president, if he is re-elected or the next president would come and finish the job. So the rabbit was taken out of the hat now. After this drama, dollar strengthened, the prices of gold and oil came down, Obama’s rating went up, Pakistan was nailed, Pakistan became known as the epicentre of terror, the terrorist organizations vowed revenge against Pakistan, Indians became aggressive; Congress wanted to stop Pakistan’s support; Pakistan went into defensive; psy ops was launched in Pakistan; so many objectives were achieved by one bloody drama. Already, they are asking for the accountability of Pakistani security forces. Already the CIA is saying that Pakistani ISI was hands in glove with Osama to protect him. Supposedly, they pulled the rabbit out from a military town, a military training academy and now they are blaming the ISI for protecting him. ISI becomes a rogue organization. In that case, if these kinds of pressures continue to build on Pakistan internationally, the Americans would go to the UN to declare ISI a rogue organization. If you take away the eyes and ears of a country, the country becomes blind despite its huge size and weapons. There focus now would be to nail Pakistani security establishment. This is a real thorn in their eyes; their last obstacle. For they have over-run the politics, they have over-run the economy, they control the media and the energy infrastructure, but they do not control the Pakistani security forces. And to destroy Pakistani security forces, they are going to support more terrorists and insurgent groups, just like they have been doing for the

Zaid Hamid with Mark Glenn

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last five years. Imagine you are on the road with your family and suddenly there is a bomb explosion; this is a horrible way of living. The number of suicide bombings that have taken place in Pakistan is more than Baghdad. If you go to Peshawar, it is a barricaded city and looks like a green zone. If you go to Karachi, it is anarchic, like Beirut in the early 70s. This is what they have reduced Pakistan to and this is what they are going to do more in the coming days.

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In the next 3 to 4 months two axes are going to be very active; one is political and diplomatic axis, where the Globalists are going to mobilize international media, the congress, the UN to declare Pakistan a terrorist state, to put embargoes and pressure on Pakistan so that Pakistani government succumbs more. Second axis would be to support the insurgencies even more so that the Pakistan Army gets so bogged that the Americans are able to create an international case that Pakistan is a dysfunctional and a failed state, and does not deserve to have nuclear weapons. That is the objective and they would go to any limit to achieve this. When the insurgencies and anarchy would get too strong, they would themselves move in saying, that since Pakistan Army is already bogged and already under pressure and threat, ideally they would like the Pakistan Army to request them to come and help them. There are two power centres in Pakistan; one is the political government and other is the military leadership. In Egypt, we saw that when the public wanted to remove Hosni Mubarak, a million people gathered in Tahrir Square, protesting aggressively, demanding to remove Hosni Mubarak. Military took over and there is military rule in Egypt right now. We do not even know the name of the ruler of Egypt. Egypt has officially become a headless state now. The Americans had seen that Hosni Mubarak was an unpopular man so they replaced one man with a military dictatorship of few generals, as they had already bought off the generals of the Egyptian army. Similarly in Iraq, Saddam Hussein had a very strong army; they had republican guards and almost half a million more army men. The Americans had bought the entire leadership of Saddam Hussein’s army. So when the Americans moved in, the generals were not there. The army simply disintegrated, there was no fight. This is what the Americans would want to do with Pakistan too. Right now, the Pakistan Army leadership is patriotic; it is holding its ground and it is trying to resist the Ameri-

If the Pakistani military leadership is eliminated, it will create a case for the West to say that even Pakistan’s military leadership is not safe, so how can they protect their nuclear assets. That is one axis. Militaries cannot run diplomacy and politics, so the only option which Pakistan Army has now is to overthrow this government, and then take over and bring in the government of patriotic civilian Pakistanis. Then create a collective block with Iran, Saudi Arabia, China and Turkey because Pakistan alone cannot handle it because for the last ten years, the war on terror which has been fought inside Pakistan has literally broken the back of Pakistani economy. Chinese have proven to be true friends of Pakistanis; they are just waiting for some kind of signal from Pakistan to move in and physically help Pakistan. They have a strategic interest in Pakistan and they know that we are their soft belly. If anything happens to Pakistan, the entire hope of Chinese of getting to the Indian Ocean would collapse. Pakistan is their strategic life line and the Chinese are counting the shortest possible route from China to the Indian Ocean, from China to the markets of Middle East, which is through Pakistan, through port of Gwader. The Chinese also know the stakes they have in Pakistan, so they will not allow Americans to overrun it. This would never happen, inshAllah. But the fact of the matter is, Pakistan would not break down, nuclear assets would not be taken away. I am only afraid of the Iraq like anarchy; that they would be able to create, because sooner or later this government would have to be over-thrown; whether it is over-thrown through chaos and riots or by the military, that we need to see. When the military would start to take hits, men would start to die, and insurgency would break out on the streets then the military would have no choice but to take over. Tough times are ahead, but tough times do not last, tough nations do. Everybody

Zaid Hamid with Mark Glenn

can expansion into the region. That is why we find NATO supplies being blocked sometimes and Pakistan’s ISI protesting strongly with the CIA; there is an actual war going on between the CIA and ISI right now. Chinese deal with the Pakistan’s political government as well as the military leadership. Even if the political government is compromised, the Pakistani military has always kept its relation intact with the Chinese military. If through this insurgency and terrorism, the CIA and Americans are able to eliminate Pakistan Army’s leadership, and are able to compromise any of them, then Chinese would also be affected. That would be a very dangerous situation for Pakistan. But right now, Pakistan Army’s leadership is solid, intact and is holding out, it is protecting Pakistan’s interest; it is maintaining independent relationship with China as well. For now, we are safe. The temper of terror is going to be unleashed in next few months; it is going to get up the ante now. What happens then? We will have to wait and see what kind of anarchy and civil war takes place on the streets.

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knows a war is going on. It is going to be an urban war just like Iraq, fought in the streets, in the urban environment. Every thinking Pakistani knows that a war is ahead. But you see that the Pakistani media is not talking about it because they have been bought off. It’s like so many thinking Americans in America know that their government is lying and is involved in an illegitimate war, but they cannot do anything about it because their voice is not projected on the mainstream media, as it is controlled by the Neocons and Zionists. We know for sure that the leadership of the Army is under severe stress right now, because every day Pakistan is losing officers and men in an on-going war. I am in contact with hundreds of men in the Armed Forces and I send messages to them every day about the security updates. So we have access right under the skin of the Armed Forces; and we have access to the youth of this country; millions of youth in the Muslim countries in the Pakistani diaspora listen to us; they trust what we say, and the patriots in Pakistan know, that this voice whatever it speaks, speaks the truth. We know what is coming. As I said I don’t have the power in my hand except to convince and convey the message. The physical administration of the military power remains in the hands of the military and I am trying to convince the military to do their constitutional duty of over-throwing the treacherous government. We live dangerously every day because of the kind of the work that we do. We are banned on the state TV; even the private TV channels do not give us a programme. If I appear on a TV channel, that channel gets so much of hammering from the government and CIA that they dare not call us again. And we know for sure that all kinds of terrorist assets have been launched to eliminate us, but we also know that Death is our biggest protector. We believe that our time of death is defined. Our motto that we also tell our youth is, we will live with dignity and when the time comes, we will die with honour. We know we live a dangerous life but we have accepted this path. If we do not speak now, if we do not spread this knowledge now, then the cost that our nation will pay will be a million times more staggering. *************************

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4 Pakistan and Saudi Arabia

Strategic Alliance for the 21st Century
Zaid Hamid

Environment and History
The Middle East is being re-shaped; not just the politics but also the geography of the Muslim world is changing according to the Neo-cons’ vision for the 21st century. Multiple Muslim governments are in the process of being systematically dismantled and state failures are being created in many Muslim lands. Iraq, Afghanistan, Sudan, Somalia are already either failed states, under occupation or dismembered. At present the US/NATO are busy ruining Libya and Syria and in destabilizing Egypt. Israel is already planning to expand into the Sinai desert taking advantage of the chaos in Egypt. Once those theatres are contained, Pakistan, Iran and Saudi Arabia would be targeted more aggressively. Pakistan is already under an imposed war. Pakistan is under a vicious 4th generation, high intensity decentralized, urban war designed to disintegrate the state. The US and India are waging this war jointly primarily from Afghanistan. Multiple insurgencies, corrupt CIA planted government, economic collapse, sectarian and religious violence and a hostile media has isolated the country’s armed forces who are desperately fighting to keep the nation intact. Pakistan’s army remains a strong federating unit and all nuclear weapons are safe and under control. Pakistani patriots have started a counter attack in the civil society, media and armed forces to re-group, re-organize and defend the country with the support of the armed forces. The situation is being brought under control but the biggest hurdle remains the present corrupt PPP regime. The Army does not want to impose a martial law and is alone in fighting the anti-State elements on ground and in the society. For Pakistan, China, Iran and Saudi Arabia remain the most critical allies and regional nations. Iran has recently been engaged by the Pakistani patriots and now the Iranian policy to a great extent has been brought in line with Pakistan’s national security needs. Iran is a stable state with a powerful government and a strong army. The Neo-cons would target Iran later. But Saudi Arabia is a matter of great concern for Pakistan. Historically, Saudi Arabia has been the strongest ally and a brotherly nation for Pakistan. The land of Hijaz and Haramain of Makkah and Medina are in Saudi Arabia making the country the spiritual centre of gravity

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for Pakistan as well. The political, economic and security cooperation between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia has been phenomenal. Over 1.5 million Pakistanis live and work in Saudi Arabia. Pakistani armed forces have been the most trusted and reliable asset for Saudi Arabia under all threat environments. Pakistani brigades would normally be deployed in Saudi Arabia and Pakistani instructors and trainers would always be in the Kingdom to support Saudi armed forces. Pakistan has always remained a reliable strategic ally for Saudi Arabia, providing even the ultimate nuclear umbrella in case of an Israeli nuclear threat to the Kingdom and to the Muslim holy cities of Makkah Mukarramah and Medina Munawwara. There is no way any country can attack Saudi Arabia as long as the Pakistani armed forces are intact and available to defend the holy lands. Subsequently, if Saudi Arabia were to be attacked, dismembered or occupied, Pakistan and the Pakistani armed forces have to be neutralized, engaged and dismembered. This is precisely the reason for waging the present high intensity 4th generation war against Pakistan by the CIA, NATO and the Neo-cons. The Saudi leadership is most uncomfortable with the PPP regime and Zardari. The biggest headache for the Saudis at the moment is that their relations with the political government in Islamabad are at an all time low despite having excellent relations with the Pakistani armed forces. Saudis want a stable and strong government in Islamabad. For the last many months Pakistan does not even have an ambassador in Saudi Arabia. India on the other hand is aggressively pursuing its economic and diplomatic interests in Saudi Arabia. Indian government is fully exploiting Saudi fears of US economy and is inviting almost $600bn of Saudi investments into India. The Indian workers have now exceeded Pakistan for the first time in history to around 2 million in the Kingdom. Indian businessmen are investing heavily in the Saudi markets in hotels, shopping malls and services. The Indian ambassador to Saudi Arabia has recently been awarded the highest Saudi award for improving relations between India and Saudi Arabia.

The Threat Axis and the Analysis
Pakistan and Saudia Arabia

The re-shaping of the Middle East and the toppling of the regimes in the Arab world has created a genuine threat for the Saudi Kingdom and the house of Saud. For the first time in the last 90 years, the house of Saud is unsure about its survival and is in a vulnerable position, fearing a public uprising and toppling of their regime through internal and external factors. Saudi Arabia faces threats from multiple axes: ♦ Internal dissent and uprising as in Egypt, Tunisia and Syria etc. King Abdullah has just announced a massive $28bn package for the nation to calm the masses against any possibility of such an uprising or rebellion. Massive discounts, salaries, pensions and jobs have been offered to the Saudis. ♦ Shia insurgency and rebellion in Eastern provinces. This is the reason they had to actually send in forces to suppress Bahrain riots basically to prevent a Shia takeover of eastern Saudi regions. The Shia factor in Yemen is also creating threats for them. Iran is being viewed as the major enemy state fomenting violence, rebellions and unrest in Shia majority areas. Saudi – Iran relations are at all time low and they themselves have a limited capacity to resolve their mutual differences. The rebellion in Bahrain has somewhat frizzled out and now the Saudis are making substantial efforts to reach out to Tehran in order to arrive at a point of reconciliation. ♦ The rebellion in Yemen – This is also drawing the Saudis into another local war in the region. These tribes are not Shias but more like the religious fanatic terrorists of TTP in Pakistan who are waging a war both against the Yemen government and the Saudis. Saudi armed forces have taken serious losses there and now there is an urgent need to protect this axis. Many Pak army trainers are present in southern regions of Saudi

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Arabia training their army for mountain warfare. The Saudis are supporting the government of Abdullah Saleh, who is wounded and under treatment in Riyadh. BrassTacks Policy Papers ♦ The American connection: It is now being viewed as betrayal by the Saudis as well, exactly as it had proved for Hosni Mubarak. The Americans have already launched the softening up operations on the Saudi society through control of media and economy and reshaping the social fabric of the Saudi nation. A subtle

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but deadly media war has already been launched in order to criticize the Saudi leadership and to create internal dissent within the population. ♦ Fratricide within the house of Saud. Americans are deviously maneuvering and planning to bring about their favorite man as the next Saudi leader, bypassing the seniority chain. Consequently leading to a civil war among the princes, resulting in the balkanization of the Saudi Arabian power structure. This is the most probable scenario as the two senior most leaders have health issues and the Americans want to bring a favorable man to the top. The division within the Arab world is not helping the Saudi cause as well. Syria supported the Shia rebellion in Bahrain in support of Iran. Qatar is supporting the rebellion against pro-Saudi President Saleh in Yemen and also against the anti-American Qaddafi in Libya. One Saudi friend used the word “majnoon”, insane, for actions of Qatar adding that it will bring down everyone in the region. Saudis are currently in a state of rapid damage control. On the diplomatic level, they are expanding the GCC, asking the Kings of Jordan and Morocco to join the Gulf common security and defense pact. The Saudis are also reaching out to Iran whereby the latter is cautiously responding. Military force is already being deployed with some success against the hostile tribes in Yemen and the rebels in Bahrain. But Saudi government has no response strategy against any US or western move to topple their government or to bring about a regime change through the house of Saud itself. The Americans control the entire Saudi oil and financial assets in the world and also maintain a strong military presence in the peninsula. Also, the

US penetration in the Saudi C4I systems makes the entire Saudi Arabia a virtual and physical colony of the United States. Saudi armed forces will face tough times to defend their homeland against any serious external threats. The forces are highly dependent upon the US and foreign advisors, thus incapacitated through a complicated command and control structure that is in the hands of the Americans. Despite spending billions on military hardware, the fighting capability of the Saudi forces as disciplined organized forces remains dangerously low. In the battles on the Yemen border, Saudi armed forces had to take serious losses. In Bahrain, they were up against unarmed civilians, hence were able to manage the uprising. Historically, Saudis have been inviting foreign armed forces from Arab countries, Pakistan and western nations to defend their land against external threats. With Arab lands in turmoil, no Arab support is expected to come for them. Iran and Turkey are not their options. That leaves Pakistan as the only reliable alternate option to defend the land against foreign and internal unrest. Trust in the US is at an all time low. Pakistan army has its presence in Saudi Arabia in the form of many trainers, doctors and advisors in the Saudi armed forces and the relations between Pakistani and Saudi armed forces remain excellent but still Pakistan does not have its armed forces on the Saudi soil as she used to prior to the Gulf war of 1992. Despite the threats and grave challenges to national security, the Saudi security establishment and leadership remains highly reluctant to discuss and debate the national security issues and vulnerabilities. The subject is a taboo in the national media and all security matters are kept hush-hush. The establishment of think tanks to openly analyze and evaluate the national security doctrines has always been discouraged even at the state level.

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Hence, the Saudi leadership has no way to get sincere, independent and practical national security advice either from their own sources or from their Arab or Muslim allies. However, the fact remains that Saudi Arabia is in a dangerous situation today, facing an existential threat from the US primarily, which is fomenting various axes of 4th generation war against the Saudi government in order to create a favorable environment for a regime change or placing a favorable king after the death of the existing top two leaders, the King and the Crown Prince, whose health is a serious concern for the Saudi security managers. A massive media war in the Arabic language is being sponsored by the US and other western channels shaping the social and national profile of Saudi Arabia towards “democracy” and an openness which would put the conservative Saudi leadership in a direct clash either with the US or with their own clergy if the US terms are implemented. The Saudi nation and social fabric is under great stress, with the possibility of an internal implosion, as contradictions and clash among the social values and modern day western culture are getting increasingly blatant. Social media, internet, dish antennae and global media is open to all in Saudi Arabia and is now shaping the Saudi national psyche beyond the control of the Saudi leadership and the clergy. The clergy is panicking at this “westernization” of the Saudi society and is simmering with rage. The Americans plan to create a division among the political and religious elite within the Saudi power hierarchy. The US is making sure that the religious hardliners are sidelined. This is creating another serious threat and conflict axis within the society – Political elite vs. the Religious elite; western media campaigns are designed to increase this divide. On the financial front, the Saudi State Bank remains directionless with regard to protecting their financial interests and investments in the west within the existing (read western) banking system. Their entire assets are

either in the western banks or in the form of bonds from various nations. Oil exports are controlled by ARAMCO with accounts in western banks which can be frozen anytime, without warning. There is no concept of building Gold or real wealth reserves despite the looming global financial chaos. While all major economies are buying gold as strategic reserves, Saudis are not among the top 20 Gold buying nations today. In sheer panic, the Saudis are spending almost $90bn in buying modern weapons from the Western nations even though the Saudi armed forces have not redefined their security doctrine nor acquired the threat analysis under the rapidly shifting regional threat environment. While the western nations remain busy dismembering Libya and Syria and consolidating Egypt, Saudi Arabia is being used to strengthen the western economy and arms industry by exploiting the Saudi fears of Iran alone. The actual threat to Saudi Arabia is not from Iran but from the United States’ desires to re-shape the Middle Eastern politics and the geography. This threat demands a friendly Muslim force in the Kingdom not the weapons of the western countries.

The Response
Pakistan cannot afford to lose Saudi Arabia as an ally, a friend and a brotherly nation. Chaos, anarchy or war in Saudi Arabia would be catastrophic for Pakistan’s economic, diplomatic and military interests. Not just that it would threaten a friendly country, the holy cities of Haramain would also be threatened in case Saudi Arabia is destabilized. There is no doubt that the security of Saudi Arabia is the red line which Pakistan cannot allow any threat to cross. Pakistan will respond if Saudi Arabia is threatened. Saudis are also comfortable with the Pakistani armed forces and want Pakistan’s help but have not yet been given the confidence either by the Pakistani government or the armed forces that the Saudi security needs can be protected by Pakistan. This is the greatest diplomatic and political failure of the Pakistani political leadership regarding Saudi Arabia.

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A patriotic, capable and aggressive Pakistani government is the best national security investment which Saudi Arabia can make against all axes of existential threats faced by the Kingdom. Pakistan can influence Iran in favor of Saudi Arabia. Initial contacts between Iranian government and Pakistani patriots have already started to show results. Pakistan would be ready to send its brigades in Saudi Arabia to defend the Kingdom against external intervention as well as the affects of regional anarchy. Pakistan will have to raise extra armed forces for the purpose considering the present threat environment in the country. The ultimate objective is to move towards collective security arrangements in the region between Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Iran and Turkey; China and even Russia can join to block the US/NATO influence in the greater Middle East which is destabilizing the entire region. A common strategy to exit the foreign forces from Afghanistan remains critical as a warring Afghanistan and presence of foreign forces in that country is the core of all regional crises. Saudi Arabia needs to move quickly to stabilize Pakistan, support Pakistani armed forces and to enhance the Pakistan-Saudi Arabia defense relations. Pakistan remains the only security insurance for the Kingdom under the present environment. All other matters would flow from this strategic move. Both Pakistan and Saudi Arabia are under attack. The re-shaping of the Middle East by the Neo-cons has hit both the nations hard. If Pakistani armed forces are bogged and engaged within the homeland, Saudis will be deprived of their most reliable and historic security cover against all threats. If Saudi Arabia goes down, Pakistan would lose its most reliable ally and its spiritual centre of gravity would be threatened. The 21st century has approached with unprecedented existential threats for both Pakistan and Saudi Arabia. Now the choice is obvious – either the two nations stand and fight together or fall divided. There is neither a third option nor the luxury of time and procrastination. *************************

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5 Arab - Iran Relations

Opportunities for Pakistan to play a strategic role in pacification

Shahzad Masood Roomi

The Middle East Environment
The entire Middle Eastern region is going through a massive political and social upheaval. From the fringes, this revolt looks like a regional mass movement by the Arab populace against the despotic Arab rulers and monarchy but its nucleus remains the orchestration and hijacking of these movements. The regimes in Tunisia, Egypt and Sudan have been doomed, in one way or another, due to this unrest and chaos. Libya has been attacked by the Western military once again after weeks of protests. Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Bahrain, Lebanon and Qatar are facing similar unrest, with their masses demanding an end to monarchy and to bring in democracy. Iraq is facing complete devastation due to the 8 year long foreign occupation and sectarian violence. There is not a single country in the entire ME which can act as a moderator or power broker to intervene and salvage regional stability.

Riots in Bahrain

This chaos in the Arab world has created an opening for Iran to assert herself and play a role in the region. But Iran’s role to stabilize the region is being impeded by the history of its relations with the Arab world.

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Apart from that, during the recent years, though the Iranian diplomacy has melted the ice and has been successful in reigniting its relations with many of the Arab states –except Saudi Arabia and Egypt – it has failed to overcome the trepidation and unease of the Arab world regarding her nuclear program and its alleged role and backing of some Shia groups and factions in the Arab world. Some radical Shia groups are determined to create unrest and regime changes in many Sunni Arab states, creating a lot of umbrage in the Sunni Arab world, subsequently souring the relations with Tehran.

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Attack on Libya

Historically, two events have played a fundamental role in shaping the recent Arab –Iran relations and the formulation of their foreign policies towards each other: ♦ ♦ Iranian revolution of 1979 Iran – Iraq war 1980 -1988

These two events created a ripple effect on the strategic, political, diplomatic and military levels across the entire ME. The Islamic revolution of 1979 decisively directed the Iranian foreign policy away from the Arab world, which had always maintained close ties with the West since the fall of the Ottoman Empire.

History of Arab Iran Relations
Though Tehran had no cordial relations with the Arab world since centuries due to religious and cultural competition between the two, but the Iranian revolution of 1979 and Fatwas given by the Iranian revolutionary leader, Ayotllah Khomeini on the political and ideological ideals of the Arabs enraged the Sunni Arab world. He first criticized the Arab monarchy describing it as being against the philosophy of Islam and then he announced to support the oppressed ones ( mustaz’afeen) and to strive against the oppression and cruelty of the oppressors (mustakbareen) in the entire ME. Declaring many of the Arab regimes as the mustakbareen, he openly expressed the intentions of exporting the revolution to other neighboring countries as well. This aggressive stance by the Iranian revolutionary leadership resulted in turning almost all the Arab capitals

extremely hostile towards Tehran. Many Arab states severed their ties with Iran; Morocco and Egypt also provided asylum to the former Iranian Shah further weakening their ties with Tehran. Consequently, Iran found herself virtually isolated in the international arena.
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Iran-Iraq War, 1980-88

Soon afterwards Iranian ideological aggression met with Iraqi military aggression in 1980. In this war, except for Syria and Libya, the whole Arab world sided with Iraq. Iraq had declared all previous territorial dispute agreements with Tehran null and void and invaded Iran. This decade long war rendered one million casualties. The pretext of Iraqi invasion clearly asserts that the Arab world was pushed into a war against Iran. It was perceived that Saddam had fought on behalf of all Arab nations who supported him logistically and economically but in reality Saddam’s decision to invade Iran was not made under the auspices of the Arab masses, rather he had served as a puppet to his Western masters. This war only served the purpose of the external forces and proved to be the precursor of the current sectarian wars expanding in Iraq, Pakistan, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Yemen and Iran. The Iranian revolution and the Iran-Iraq war inspired many failed revolutionary attempts by Shia groups in the Arab nations. In 1981 a failed coup was attempted in Bahrain by the Shia militant group Islamic Front for the Liberation of Bahrain. This coup was aimed to install the Shia cleric Hajat Islam Hadi Al-Madrassi, who was in exile in Iran, as the new ruler. Though Iran denied any help but official authorities regarded it as a regime change operation by Iran. A massive crackdown against the local Shia population was instigated further souring Behrain’s relations with Tehran. Similarly, in 1985, the assassination of Kuwaiti ruler, Shiekh Jabir Al-Ahmad Al Sabah was attempted by an underground militant radical Shia group Al-Dawah. As Kuwait was providing massive aid to Iraq in the Iran-Iraq war, Iran began retaliatory measures by targeting Kuwaiti oil tankers in the Persian Gulf. Ties with Egypt hit the lowest level after both Iran and Egypt took some extreme measures to humiliate each other diplomatically. Egypt supported Saddam against Iran and also provided asylum to former Shah. In 1981, in a radically strange move, Iran renamed one of Tehran’s streets after Khalid Islambouli, Saddat’s assassin. Iranian relations with Saudi Arabia hit the lowest levels when, during Hajj in Makkah in 1987, Iranian pilgrims held a protest against the Saudi support to Saddam in the Iran-Iraq war. The Saudi authorities crushed the demonstration using brute force leading to riots. This infuriated Tehran which called for the Muslims the world over

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to overthrow the Saudi regime in order to avenge the oppression against the Iranian pilgrims. In response, the Saudis declared these riots to be a part of the plot against their regime. The following day angry mobs attacked Saudi and Kuwaiti embassies in Iran. These developments took place amid Iran-Iraq war, putting Iran in complete political isolation.

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It was only in the early 1990’s when Tehran initiated a broad range of diplomatic measures in order to normalize its relations with other capitals in the ME. The hawkish stance towards the Arab world was replaced with pragmatism particularly in the economic domain. Iran established economic ties with the UAE, Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait and Qatar. In the military sphere, Iran has helped Lebanon, Syria and Sudan with military hardware, training and economic aid for military usage. Ties with Iraq have been improved tremendously after the ouster of Saddam. Despite some initial success on the economic front, the ties with two most important Arab countries, Saudi Arabia and Egypt continue to be in troubled waters. In recent years, four more important factors have been added to the list of riving elements behind Tehran’s relations with the Arab world and are playing a more decisive role in shaping the regional strategic equation as well. These include:

♦ ♦ ♦ ♦

The Iranian nuclear program Israel and its relations with some Arab countries Presence of Western forces in some Gulf states Territorial disputes with the UAE
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Tehran’s foreign policy has failed in imparting a satisfactory message to the Sunni dominated Arab world regarding her nuclear ambitions which are being perceived as a security threat by the Arab states. This delay and communication breakdown is providing silent aid to the Western media propaganda against the Iranian quest for nuclear technology. On the other hand, unfortunately, Tehran did not receive any initiative from any of the Arab states in an attempt to ease her apprehensions regarding the relations between Israel and some Arab states and the presence of Western forces on Arab soil. This has resulted in a complete diplomatic deadlock which would continue to reign lest the current souring ties with Saudi Arabia are not resolved. Iranian foreign policy of positively engaging the Arab world has some shortcomings as well. For example, Lebanon views the Iranian support for Doha Agreement as the latter’s objective to allow Hizbullah to fight Israel on her behalf. Though Iran has promised military aid to Lebanon in case the US military supplies are discontinued, the Lebanese government has accused Iran of trying to replace the government with Islamic theocracy! Commenting on the Iranian diplomatic failure, Mohammad Shariati Dehaghan, former Iranian representative in OIC, asserts, “The issues of Kuwait should be resolved with more understanding, because Iran's relations with this country are very sensitive. The relations with Oman and Saudi Arabia are the same. Saudi Arabia is a base for Iran’s relations with regional countries, but Iran has failed to properly solve its problems with that country. Qatar repeatedly has asked Iran to solve those problems in order to better develop its relations with Iran, but Iran has failed in that regard.” The presence of Western and US forces in the region is another critical factor seriously affecting the Iran – Arab relations. Iran’s relations with the UAE and Bahrain are still in the woods due to the presence of permanent French and American military basis in these countries. One cannot ignore the involvement of the West and the US in the Gulf and the impact of Arab-US ties on the Arab-Iran relations. Regional and global power players are contesting in a turf war for the energy resources and associated land and sea routes.

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The US Objectives
After World War I, the Muslim world was divided into various countries on ethnic lines. Arab, Syrian, Iranian, Iraqi, Egyptian, Kuwaiti and many other Arab nationalities were introduced through this division but this was just the preamble of the Zionists’ multifaceted strategy to establish the state of Israel which was created after the Second World War. History has established that the Zionists’ interest in the Gulf is more than a century old. Today, the US, under the Zionist control, has set the following regional goals for which it has kept its military presence in the region: ♦ Providing security to Israel. This includes the elimination of Iranian and Pakistani nuclear programs.

Preventing all Arab regimes from getting nuclear capability is an essential part of this scheme. BrassTacks Policy Papers ♦ ♦ Securing energy resources in the Gulf States Securing land and sea based energy and trade corridor

♦ Creating a strong and permanent naval presence in the Indian Ocean, Arabian Sea, Red sea, Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, thus turning the Indian Ocean into the next global battlefield.

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NATO and the US have initiated a very well organized media campaign through Arabic media channels, highlighting the threats to regional peace and stability from the Iranian nuclear program in a bid to present Tehran as the ultimate enemy and an existential threat for the Arab world. Although Tehran has denied any backing or support to any militant Shia revolt in the Arab world through any faction or rebel group, still a sense of Iranian covert aggression directed towards toppling some Arab regimes, like Bahrain and Saudi Arabia, is prevailing within the Arab capitals. The expose’ of diplomatic cables in 2010, proves the success of Western media propaganda and their diplomacy in creating the sectarian divide. In these cables, many Arab world leaders openly declared Iran as a threat and even prescribed an attack on Tehran’s nuclear program as a solution. The fear of public uproar has always prevented the Arab leaders from denouncing Iran openly but these diplomatic cables prove that countries like Saudi Arabia and Bahrain had proposed a direct military attack on the Iranian nuclear installations. Oblivious to the long-term implications of their desires, these Arab leaders are playing in the hands of the Zionists who are waiting for a mass approval by the Arab nations to launch an attack on Iran. The recent sectarian unrest in Bahrain and the Saudi Arabian border region is fueling the fire even more. In the current scenario both Iran and the Arab states need some third party to bridge the gulf and this is where Pakistan enters in the ME equation in the role of a political pacifier.

Pakistan as the Strategic Bridging Force
Pakistan holds a unique strategic, military, political and ideological place as the only nuclear power in the entire Muslim world having cordial relations with every Muslim country, irrespective of ethnic and sectarian demography, thus entailing a distinctive political stature. The fact that Pakistani armed forces have fought in the Arab-Israel wars in 1967 and 1973 is yet another unique honor for Pakistan among the Muslim states. On the sectarian level, Pakistan is not a monolithic state like Iran or Saudi Arabia rather its sectarian demography contains a sizeable Shia population among the majority Sunni. This Shia populace is well integrated with Pakistani society and is playing a vital role in the country’s progress and development. Due to these attributes Pakistan can play the role of a mediator between the Arab world and Iran. Below are some points which can serve as starting points to form a collective security arrangement, based on a broad range of economic and military initiatives. 1. Pakistan must engage diplomatically with the regional bodies like the Gulf Cooperation Council and the Arab League to purpose a regional security arrangement in and around the gulf including Pakistan and Iran. But to put any such idea in motion, a collective threat perception is mandatory. For this purpose, the notion of ‘Greater Middle East’ (a term coined by Western military and political commentators) must be used where Pakistan and Iran both have been included in the equation. This is a combined regional threat for every Muslim country and can only be dealt with under a collective security arrangement. No single country can withstand the threats of this unprecedented security challenge. This is the gravest internal

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In the presence of these goals, it becomes obligatory for Tehran and Riyadh, for the sake of regional stability, to re-establish their diplomatic links. This is the only way to avert these heinous US designs. On the other hand, any political alliance between these two capitals would be the worst nightmare for the Zionists. To avoid this scenario, the ME is being targeted with yet another strategy of division and this time on sectarian lines! The Shia populace and elements in the Arab nations are creating unrest, consequently souring the diplomatic and political relations.

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threat faced by every Muslim state today and cannot be ignored, and if left unchecked it would certainly lead towards another division of the Muslim lands. This threat assessment needs to be presented and addressed as a clear and present danger. 2. On the external axis, Israel is a major security threat for the whole Islamic world. Israel would not spare any Muslim country possessing nuclear capability. Attacks on Iraqi and Syrian nuclear installations and planned invasion to destroy Pakistan’s Kahuta nuclear plant vividly explains the Israeli unstated policy towards Muslim nuclear countries. Iraqi and Syrian capabilities were destroyed and a noxious surrogate war is being waged in Pakistan to topple its military and nuclear program from within. Plans to destroy Iranian installations in a surgical strike are already on the table. This threat perception must be agreed upon by all the countries and this must be the duty of the Pakistani security managers to convey this threat perception strongly across to the ME and beyond. 3. To dissolve the false threat perception promoted by the Western media about the Iranian nuclear program, Pakistan will have to take the initiative to bring both Saudi Arabia and Iran together in order to discuss the rationale of the Iranian nuclear program. Pakistan can offer Saudi Arabia a security umbrella while taking Tehran into confidence at the same time or even better including Iran. Avoiding any false signal from being transmitted to any of the involved stakeholders remains a critical aspect of any such military offer. 4. Turkey is also an important member of the Muslim world which must be approached by Pakistan to use her clout in the Arab world bringing it closer to Iran. The existing cooperation between Pakistan, Turkey and Iran on the economic front must be cultivated in the military field as well. A program of collaborative training, exercises, military joint ventures and intelligence sharing would inspire other regional countries to be a part of this alliance. 5. On the economic front, Pakistan must present the idea of joining all the Muslim lands through road links. This is a must do task. Economic ties always serve as a harbinger to military and strategic relations. Almost all the Muslim countries are one single spread of land with each having roads leading to the borders connecting them together. Political will, economic vision and realization of strategic benefits of such a cooperative model are the only requirements. The economic openings would further help in reviving the centuries old linguistic and cultural bonds between these lands. Furthermore, Pakistan, which forms the Eastern rim of the entire Islamic world, can lead the cooperation and the collective economic potential along with China, giving more leverage to the proposal. *************************
This article was originally published in BrassTacks Monthly Security Review in April 2011 (Vol. 1 No. 11)

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6 India-Iran Relations and Pakistan
Farzana Shah

The South Asian region is witnessing a change in the traditional strategic blocks in contemporary times. New alliances are emerging while existing ones are going through a complete reshape. The changing dynamics of Indian relations with the US and Iran are the most lucid manifestation of this reshaping of regional politics. A detailed analysis of India’s calculus of its relations with Iran and recently growing ties with the US clearly points towards the fact that the dynamics have tilted in India’s favour at the cost of Iranian interests. Over the years India-Iran relations were perceived as something inspired by mutual interests based on the following factors: 1. Energy and economy 2. Strategic interests vis-à-vis Afghanistan and Pakistan 3. Historical ties Despite all the bravado of bilateralism and convergence of strategic interests, India abandoned Iran as an ally soon after the US invaded Afghanistan and the Taliban regime in Afghanistan was toppled. Since then, India-Iran relations have become nothing more than a sordid boon for Iran, formulated by the cunning Indian foreign policy makers, leaving Iran in the lurch regarding all the above-mentioned factors. It is interesting to observe how the Indian aspirations to become a global player, after becoming a strategic ally of the US, has affected India-Iran relations on every axis, offering new opportunities to Islamabad to expand its diplomatic clout in Tehran in order to wage a combined political, economic and strategic alliance for regional stability. Let us see how the Indo-Iran relations have evolved to their current status.

1. Energy and Economic Ties
For years, India had been pursuing a policy of warming up to Iran in order to secure the energy needs of its growing population. The Indo-Iranian relations, based on the notion of bilateral interests in the field of energy and economy since the last few years, have disintegrated into distrust due to many reasons.

The focus on the economic aspects of the energy ties has suffered many jolts due to inconsistent Indian sincerity as well as India’s complete u-turn on many issues vis-à-vis Iran, especially its nuclear program. BrassTacks Policy Papers The much hyped energy deals, including importing LNG and Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) gas pipeline, between India and Iran have hit major obstacles due to India cozying up with the US after the Indo-US nuclear deal. So detaching herself from Iran became an intrinsic imperative for India. Hence India opted to walk away from this trilateral deal and eventually the deal was signed by Pakistan and Iran only. In June 2005, India concluded an agreement with Iran for the supply of five million tons of LNG annually for a 25-year period in order to secure its energy supplies and expressed its willingness to increase the import by another 2.5 million tons per year. Initially, Iran had agreed to supply the LNG at $3.215 per million British thermal units (mBtu). However, due to the rising price of oil, Iran has been demanding a higher price while India is unwilling to do so. While the snag-hit LNG deal is blamed on the Iranian demand for higher price, the Indian u-turn on the 2,700-kilometer-long Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) gas pipeline is due to the opposition from the US. Washington has succeeded in forcing India to dump the pipeline linking it to the Indo-US civilian nuclear deal, which was formally concluded in March 2006. In May 2006, seven US Congressmen warned India against going ahead with the pipeline project at the cost of the nuclear deal and the overall Indo-US relations. In a letter to Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, the US issued a blunt warning:

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“India's pursuit of closer relations with Iran appears to be inconsistent with the letter and spirit of the July 18th, 2005 announcement by you and President Bush, of the establishment of a ‘global partnership’ between our two countries. It also is contrary to the pledge that India ‘would play a leading role in international efforts to prevent the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, including nuclear, chemical, biological and radiological weapons’.” Divergence of Indo-Iran Energy Interests
The Indo-US nuclear deal in 2005, opened many other avenues for importing nuclear and fuel energy for India, therefore its dependence on Iran has decreased considerably now. Apart from this, many other factors played a decisive role in ceasing India from becoming a major Iranian energy market, like the UN sanctions on Iran and the recent pledge by President Obama to support India for a permanent seat in UNSC. Many other countries are offering similar nuclear deals to India which will further decrease any future dependence on Iran. Already nearly 45 percent of India's oil imports come from the Gulf States including Saudi Arabia, whereas only almost 16 percent of Indian oil supply comes from Iran. This factor in itself indicates that India would be striving for closer ties with the Gulf countries rather than damaging its recently established strategic ties with the US, by siding with Iran even for energy. India also endorsed the Arab call for a nuclear-weapons-free Middle East, a proposal that used to be directed at Israel but which is increasingly focused on Iran.

Indian oil imports from various countries. Saudi Arabia being the leading exporter

Keeping in mind the growing isolation of Iran by America, India has already started warming up to Saudi Arabia in order to protect its energy interests, besides guarding its economic interests as over 3.5 million Indian citizens work in that region. This manifestation of Indian energy policy is visible by its joining hands with Saudi Arabia in a call for averting the Iranian nuclear program. The Riyadh declaration signed in January 2010 during the Indian Prime Minister Singh's visit to Saudi Arabia, asked Iran to "remove regional and international doubts about its nuclear weapons programme." It also endorses the fact that now India is completely in the US camp along with Saudi Arabia against Iran’s nuclear ambitions. As India had dragged its feet over the IPI pipeline but Iran and Pakistan had gone ahead with it, the US has succeeded in getting the Turkmen-Afghan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) pipeline signed. The much-delayed TAPI pipeline project that envisages bringing Turkmen gas to India via Afghanistan and Pakistan, was recently signed by the respective countries and has seen much to the interests of the US. Eventually, it will further sideline Iran as the energy exporter. This is one of the many alternative markets for India to seek energy from, Turkmenistan is especially important for India vis-à-vis its access to the massive Central Asian energy reserves and for countering the expanding presence of China in Central Asia (Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan). The US is mainly supporting this not only for countering the Iranian energy market, but also for consolidating its presence in Afghanistan thus keeping Iran out of the region even on trade levels. If this plan succeeds without facing any set backs, it will also decrease the economic dependence of Afghanistan, as the TAPI

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IPI and TAPI Gas pipelines

pipeline would make it a transport hub connecting three strategically important areas namely: Central Asia, South Asia and West Asia. The pipeline is also going to earn it revenues (approx. $300 million per year as transit fee). The only real threat this project is faced with emerges from the security of the pipeline and its related infrastructure, particularly in Afghanistan and the Baluchistan province of Pakistan. To diminish this threat, the US is desperately trying to woo the Afghan Taliban to join the Kabul government but they remain committed to their own goal of forcing the withdrawal of US/NATO forces from Afghanistan; even in case of the US withdrawal, one must remember that the Taliban were not against the pipeline itself, which is going to hurt the Iranian energy exports to a considerable extent. This scenario is clearly a strategic set back for Iran, with India finding new partners to reach Central Asia with the Us backing and having a sound footing in Afghanistan where it will no longer need Iran. Some political pundits suggest that the Indian influence in Afghanistan is about to terminate as the US has announced its withdrawal from the country, but this announcement remains elusive as different elements from different power centers in the US are interpreting the announcement as ‘conflicting’, making the whole withdrawal issue more complex and vague.

Apart from the gas pipelines, other energy projects by India in Iran are also turning unfeasible due to the imposition of US sanctions as well as certain geographical issues. ♦ ♦ A $5.5 billion offshore block discovered by Indian oil companies. A $10 billion agreement to develop parts of the South Pars gas field in Iran.

However, these are also not adding much to the Iranian economy since the Indian companies cannot invest beyond a certain amount per year in order to avoid the affect of the US imposed sanctions on companies regarding the investment limit in Iran. Consequently, the Indian companies could not invest more than $20 million per year in Iran. At this rate, these projects will never be completed, as the energy demand in India keeps growing.

Infrastructure at a massive Iranian South Pars Gas Field

To nullify the US pressure and to fulfill its own energy needs, India is opting for an extremely ambitious subsea gas pipeline from Iran or the Gulf States. These projects are also equally unfeasible due to their mammoth cost as well as their technological and geographical challenges. ♦ The SAGE project: Devised by South Asia Gas Enterprise (SAGE), is an extremely ambitious gas pipeline project using deep sea technologies. It was devised in the 1990’s. The idea revolves around establishing a gas-gathering network in Oman, by connecting the major gas fields in the region and then pumping this to India through the sub-sea, politically neutral energy corridor in international waters of the Arabian Sea. ♦ Another project entails transporting the Turkmen gas in a gas swap deal. Under this project, Turkmenistan will pump in the amount of gas required by India into Iran’s northern Iran gas grid. Iran will then feed in the same amount of Iranian gas into its southern pipelines to Chahbahar port, from where it will be

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Sanctions and Other Issues

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pumped into a sub-sea pipeline leading to India. BrassTacks Policy Papers

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Proposed SAGE pipeline

However these sub-sea routes are faced with logistical difficulties, including the problem of carrying out maintenance on a sub-sea pipeline at a depth of 3.5 kilometers, costing an additional infrastructure investment of $3 billion, as well as additional transportation tariff. The project is expected to take five years to be completed and will have a capacity of 31.1 million standard cubic metres of gas a day (mscmd).

Geo-hazard challenges for Iran- India subsea gas pipelines

Though these projects look ambitious and advantageous to Iran, both these projects, according to experts could be eligible for US sanctions. Though there are chances that these may escape sanctions if, like the Turkey-Iran pipeline project, they are conducted through swap deals, and by not buying gas directly from Iran, but again it won’t benefit Iran much. These projects are unviable due to their high cost, a factor on the pretext of which India had stayed away from Iran-Pakistan pipeline, although according to media reports in 2008, Turkmen gas was charging three times of what India had committed to Iran. Ashgabat reportedly had asked for $400-$450/1000 cubic meters, with additional transport and transit fee that would be payable to Afghanistan and Pakistan, making the final price

This fact once again proves that India’s backing off from the Iran-Pakistan pipeline is more due to the pressure from the US than the cost factor. It is also worthy to note that more than the effect of the UNSC resolution on India’s oil trade with Iran, the US sanctions are impacting India the most. The US has been applying pressure against the Indian companies that have energy relations with Iran. The Indian company Reliance’s decision to terminate exports to Iran came after several US lawmakers urged the Export-Import Bank to suspend the extension of $900 million worth of financial guarantees to RIL to help it to expand its Jamnagar refinery, on the grounds that it was assisting Iran’s economy with the gas sales.

2.India-Iran Strategic Interests and Afghanistan
India for years has wielded the geopolitics of the region vis-à-vis Afghanistan as a dictating factor in determining its ties with Iran. Since the Taliban rule in Afghanistan, Indo-Iran interests continued on the same track however, the bogy derailed completely with the US invasion of Afghanistan. India and the US became allies and strategic partners for the 21st century and India got the US patronage to establish her military footprint in Afghanistan along with the expansion of her economic clout next to Iran, with billions of dollars worth of investment. This does not set well with Iran, though it had earlier strived for closer cooperation with India against the Taliban influence in Afghanistan. However, in order to avoid treading on the US-Israel sensitivities, India decided to stay away. After signing the nuclear deal with US in 2005, India had put all its eggs in the American basket in order to gain influence in Afghanistan, banking on the US policy of stick and carrot to Pakistan regarding the so-called war on terror. The Indian policy makers still support the US/NATO presence in the region so that India is able to launch and support sectarian insurgencies both in Pakistan and Afghanistan in order to create a rift between Pakistan and Iran on this sensitive issue. India strongly advocates the US/NATO presence in Afghanistan and this is where the Iranian interests clash with those of India and this is where the Iran-Pakistan interests converge, despite the past cold relations with each other during the Taliban regime in Kabul, after 1996. With the US/NATO’s complete military failure during the last 10 years in a complex and asymmetric war in Afghanistan, and the subsequent talks of bringing the Taliban fighters onboard in Kabul, India is sensing its dreams of establishing a foothold in the region, dashing to the ground once again. India and the Nuclear-Armed Shia Iran New Delhi has repeatedly voted in favour of the International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA) resolutions against Iran on the grounds that a nuclear Iran is not in India’s interests. After finding new sources of energy in the US and some western countries, India has manifested a strong shift in its policy over the Iranian nuclear program, which has been one of the major factors that have jolted the Indo-Iranian relations. Prior to that, India had been playing the role of a fence sitter over the issue, saving itself from any Iranian ire since the issue remained within the International Atomic Energy Commission

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at around $650-675/1000 cubic meters; India was bargaining for $200-$230/1000 cubic meters.

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(IAEA) giving India an excuse to urge Iran to resolve its differences within the IAEA. However, when the nuclear watchdog decided to refer the matter to the United Nations Security Council, India could not remain a fence sitter. Earlier too India had stabbed Iran in the back by siding with the US in September 2005, despite its friendly gestures towards Tehran. The Indian policy makers have been quoted time and again by the media (read between the lines) that India sees a nuclear Iran destabilizing the entire Middle East. This Indian stance is nothing but reiteration of what the US and Israel have been propagating since years. In the current restive milieu of the region, this Indian stand is based on two factors: a. Indian Relations with Israel b. Growing economic relations with Saudi Arabia c. The Indo-Israeli ties are stronger than the Indo-Iran relations, mainly for its defense purposes and as a counter weight to the nuclear-armed Pakistan, as well as Israeli support for India over the Kashmir issue. Due to these reasons India won’t anger Israel at any cost. A nuclear Iran would be a real threat to Israel. Both Israeli and Iranian leaderships have vowed, more than once, to destroy each other’s nuclear capabilities. This invariably makes India and Israel inseparable allies, whereas Iran is now being viewed as a hostile state. Secondly, India has started strengthening its economic ties with Saudi Arabia- a country that is said to be against a nuclear Iran. The Indian support to the Saudi call of averting the Iranian nuclear program in the Riyadh declaration clearly indicates that Saudi Arabia is emerging as a more important ally for India than Iran. This is where the traditional Saudi-Iran contention, deeply entrenched in sectarian differences, has led India into an anti-Iran part of the whole strategic equation encompassing the region. The declaration asked Iran to "remove regional and international doubts about its nuclear weapons programme."

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Iranian Supreme leader, Ayottullah Khamenai, declared India as a Zionist State

For Indians, this sensitivity is a nightmare in the making. The recent statement of the Supreme Iranian leader on Kashmir, terming the Indian government as a “Zionist Regime,” must suffice to gauge the Iranian mood and reaction to the Indian foreign policy maneuvering regarding Iran’s core interests. A protest staged by the Shia Indians in July 2010 in Dehli against the sanctions on Iran, has also set off alarm bells among the Indian policy makers who are concerned that if the pattern continues over different issues, especially with regards to US-Iran, Iran-Israel standoff, and on the sectarian angle, the consequences will be devastating for India. India also views any future social or moral support to the Indian Shia population from Iran as a catalyst for damaging the growing economic ties with Saudi Arabia. This will invite the Saudi ire and possibly lead to the Arab-Iran race of funding the Sunni-Shia groups in India by using sectarian outfits, following the same pattern as per which both countries had fought their surrogate wars in Pakistan. Keeping in view these factors, India would rather go along with Saudi Arabia, which has the US backing as well as a strong US military influence. Surely, a weak Iran is in the interests of India rather than a nuclear Iran standing up to US-Israel allies of India. Kashmir The recent comments by the Iranian Supreme Spiritual leader against the Indian brutalities have sent a wave of anger in Indian policy makers. Many had tried to portray it as an insignificant, unofficial remark; Delhi also tried to play it down saying it was said due to the Indian vote against Iran. On the other hand, the Iranian newspaper, reflecting Iranian thinking condemned the Indian invasion of Kashmir. However, this is not the first time the Iranians have shown support for the rights of the Kashmiris. In 2008 the Iranian media embarrassed India when Pernab Mukherjee visited Iran. Just four days before Mukherjee arrived in Tehran, the Tehran Times newspaper featured an article titled "The Black Day of Kashmir - 61 years of pain", on the occasion of the anniversary of the Indian military intervention in Kashmir on October 27, 1947, which it termed as "one of the darkest chapters in the history of South Asia", condemning the Indian stance on the Kashmir issue. The article said, "India continues to defy the world by denying Kashmiris their inalienable right to determine their destiny ... The atmosphere of tension in India-Pakistan relations has engendered instability and insecurity in South Asia. The urgency of the situation and the need to resolve the dispute as soon as possible cannot be over-emphasized ... The world's Muslims will always stand by the Kashmiris until they succeed in their struggle to attain the right to self-determination." The article also mentioned Iran's "deep-rooted spiritual

India - Iran Relations and Pakistan

Some Indian analysts are also of the view that India is seeing Shia Iran as a potential threat to Indian security, as India has the world’s second largest Shia population after Iran. For Shias around the world, Iran is a highly sacred place, hence any statement, policy or support on any issue dealing with the plight of Muslims in Kashmir or India will be taken seriously by the Shia Muslims. By putting a bar on the annual Shia procession, during the month of Moharram (First Month of Islamic Calendar), in Srinagar (Indian occupied Kashmir), India has once again demonstrated its desire to suppress any future Shia uprising. Iranians must be monitoring all these developments in India, which are further weakening the bilateral relations of the two states.

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and cultural bonds with the people of Kashmir" stating that in Tehran, Kashmir is known as "Little Iran" Kashmir-Iran-e-saghir. BrassTacks Policy Papers

3. Shaky Indo-Iran historical ties
Indians often end up harping about India’s ‘historical’ ties with Iran in a bid to rescue their drowning relations, however, now the phrase ‘historical relations’ holds little weight. The Indo-Iran relations have always been on a shaky ground and not constant. Indian has always played the role of an opportunist rather than a trusted ally. India-Iran relations came to a halt after the Cold War extended to this part of the world, soon after being initiated in the form of Air Transportation Agreement in 1948. Iran fell into the US camp while India joined the Soviets, despite the announcement of the “non-alignment” policy by Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru. Selecting the opposing political camps put both the countries on a track leading to cold, suspicious and mutually exclusive interests with traces of hostility. Apart from that, Iran historically remained within the circle of close and trusted friends of Pakistan, owing to the similarities in culture, religion and linguistics. Later both also become partners in the West-sponsored Central Treaty Organization (CENTO). As Pakistan drew closer to Iran, India approached the Arab states like Egypt and Syria. At one point Nehru’s fraternity with the Egyptian President, Jamal Abdul Nasser, irked the Shah of Iran. In a desperate attempt to break the diplomatic deadlock between Tehran and Delhi, the Shah visited India under his engagement policy in 1956, which was followed by a visit of the Indian premier to Tehran in 1959; but even these trips proved futile in bridging the gaps, rather cracks and frictions between the two countries became more visible.

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Though there was a turnaround at the beginning of 1960’s and Iran supported India in the Sino-India conflict of 1962, but Pak-India war of 1965 proved as yet another game changer for the newly formed Indo-Iran relations, when Iran unequivocally vowed to support Pakistan against Indian aggression. In the late 1960’s the second phase of Indo-Iran relations began owing to some changes in the Pak-Iran relations and the geopolitical environment of the time. The following factors brought both India and Iran closer

Nehru with Shah of Iran

♦ ♦ ♦

Pakistan and communist China developed close relations. This was annoying for the Shah of Iran. Pakistan improved its relations with the Arab states as well and this also irritated the Shah. India was not very comfortable with the Arab states’ stance during the Sino-India and Pak-India wars.

Clearly, it was more out of the compulsion of geopolitics at the time rather than diplomatic efforts from any side that brought India and Iran closer. In the early 70’s, when the world practically entered into the politics of oil, Iran emerged as the strategically pre-eminent power in the region due to its unique geography and vast oil resources. But this spell of warm relations between Tehran and Delhi was threatened by the Iranian support to Pakistan in the 1971 war. However, the Indian diplomacy and Pakistan’s wooing of Gulf States for energy resources enabled India to save its diplomatic ties with Iran. The environment provided an ideal opportunity for India to separate Pakistan and Iran. But even these relations could not work very well as India was busy in creating her own footprint around Iran during the 1970’s, particularly in Afghanistan. The Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979, proved to be a massive jolt, cracking the diplomatic landscape between Delhi and Tehran, pushing them in two diametrically opposing camps. Iran was not comfortable with Soviet Communism but India was a close ally of the Soviets at that time. Apart from that, the Iranian revolution and Iran-Iraq war also played critical roles in engulfing the bilateral relations. The new revolutionary regime in Iran had more religious agendas than having warm relations with a “secular” India. During the Iran-Iraq war, India supported Iraq thus further complicating its ties with Iran. Despite these complications, Iran remained too critical a country for India due to its energy resources and another phase of good relations between the two developed when Germany stopped work on the Iranian Bushehr nuclear program and Iran had to ask India for help, which provided India with an opportunity to revive its relations with Tehran. India announced to send a team to inspect the problem. This set the tone for warm relations between the two during the 1990’s. India was desperate to assist Iran in order to gain clout on Tehran’s foreign policy towards Pakistan, who at that time was supporting the non-Shia alliance of Afghan resistance against the Soviets. If India and Iran were in the opposing camps at the time, then so were Pakistan and Iran as each supported different sectarian Mujahideen outfits in the Afghan resistance. Such a complicated political environment was ideal for India in order to play some dirty tricks in a bid to create a rift between Islamabad and Tehran. These Indian efforts paid dividend in the Post-Soviet era in Afghanistan during the 1990’s, particularly during the Taliban era after 1996. Taking advantage of this rift, India created its assets in Northern Alliance of Afghanistan. Soon, there were too many rifts between Pakistan and Iran ranging from conflicting approaches to Taliban to the sectarian terrorism in Pakistan in which India’s role cannot be ruled out completely. By 2001, India was successful in establishing strategic relations with Iran. During his visit to Tehran during the same year, the Indian Prime Minister, Atal Behari Vajpayee affirmed that the depth of Indo-Iran relations gives India “a very special position” in Tehran. The Tehran declaration was signed by both countries, emphasizing close cooperation on international terrorism and “stabilizing” Afghanistan. In 2003, the Road Map to

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once again:

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Strategic Cooperation was signed by the two countries. This turn around proved deadly for Pak-Iran relations, utterly incapacitating all bilateral and multilateral organizations like RCO, between Islamabad and Tehran, consequently undermining Pakistan’s geo-economic interests.

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2003 – Iranian President Placing Wreath at Ghandi’s Monument

But, the later developments proved that all the bravado by the Indian political leadership vis-à-vis their warm and special relations with Iran, was just sordid lip service. In 2005, India backstabbed Iran on the critical nuclear issue. This act unmasked the real face of Indian friendship with Iran, leaving the latter enraged and stunned. However, this move by India has provided Pakistan with the opportunity to redeem its lost trust in Tehran and bring Beijing in to form a regional security and economic zone, which can be further stretched to Turkey without an iota of doubt. Indians were clearly eying Iran as a conduit to reach Central Asia and Europe, bypassing Pakistan. Iranians have seen through the game plan and opportunist nature of Indian diplomacy. India has decisively chosen the US and Israel as partners in the 21st century. Now the ball is in Islamabad’s court to take the diplomatic initiative and engage Tehran in a long- term strategic partnership on the same lines as it has established with China since decades. In context of Indo-Iran relations and Pakistan’s prospects in Tehran, the current picture of regional politics can be defined as following: So far Iran has gained no real benefit from its cooperation with India, rather it is always India whose interests have been served. ♦ With changing strategic blocks/interests, India will like to turn its back on Iran as she is not in a position to jeopardize its newly developed relations with the US. ♦ The desire to become a global power by getting a UNSC seat, India would also be very cautious about

Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries are rapidly replacing Iran as a trade partner for India.

♦ Since India is a not the primary player in Afghanistan today and is trying to make its space under the US shadow, the notion of Indo-Iran mutual interests in Afghanistan has also been proven wrong. In the backdrop of these developments and facts, Pakistan and Iran have no option but to opt for a long-term strategic partnership in order to protect their mutual interests and then to expand this partnership to other nations. But Pakistan can only achieve this after convincing Iran of its own critical and strategic importance for the latter.

Suggestions
♦ Pakistan and Iran must exploit the shared geography along with strategic interests through an institutionalized approach, revising developments on bilateral relations and cooperation between the two countries in every field after a stipulated time period. This approach will also be helpful in eliminating mistrust and suspicion created by hostile nations through their dirty wars in the region. Though there are challenges but with the right method and positive approach they can easily be turned into benefits on every axis of bilateral relations. Bringing stability in Afghanistan after the US/NATO withdrawal can only be achieved in a combined effort by Islamabad and Tehran. ♦ On the political front, Pakistan with its warm relations with both the Arab world and Iran holds the key to minimize the friction between the two. This initiative can trigger bilateralism between Iran and the Arab states. ♦ Iran and Pakistan should join hands with China for energy projects like Iran-Pakistan-China gas pipeline, which will also help the Iranian economy. But apart from the economics, this alliance is required to bring about a strategic balance in the region and subsequently in the world, which currently favors the US and India to unacceptable proportions. ♦ Russia and China can be taken onboard for a new pressure block against the US policies supported by India. ♦ Iran should help raise the voice of Muslims in India, especially in Kashmir. Shia Muslims in India also need special protection from Iran against Indian brutalities.

End Notes
Despite being a US ally, Pakistan has rightly been seen as a country that wants the US/NATO forces to leave the region. Since prospects of withdrawal are in sight, any solo attempt for influence in Afghanistan by Iran or Pakistan can result in an un-ending and bitter mess like in the past. Therefore, Pak-Iran-Afghanistan alliance is the only way to stabilize the region and stand up to the US bullying. Iran is too important a country for Pakistan and Pakistan cannot afford to lose it as a strategic ally, particularly

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its relations with Iran.

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in the current geopolitical landscape. The Pakistani foreign office will have to convey to Iran why Pakistan is its natural ally rather than India, and why a mutual understanding between both is necessary in order to protect their combined security, economic and political interests which have now converged like never before. The future in this region belongs to Pakistan and Iran. It needs courage and a daring initiative to make it happen. It is within reach and must be done at all costs. ************************
Note: The article was originally puplished in Monthly BrassTacks Security Review in Dec. 2010 (Vol.1 No. 7)

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