ASU 2011 Steven Murray

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***Saudi Disad***
***Saudi Disad***.....................................................................................................................................................1

***Saudi Disad***..............................................................................................................................1
1NC Saudi DA............................................................................................................................................................4

1NC Saudi DA.....................................................................................................................................4
***Uniqueness***......................................................................................................................................................6

***Uniqueness***...............................................................................................................................6
UQ – US-Saudi relations Low....................................................................................................................................6

UQ – US-Saudi relations Low...........................................................................................................6
Relations UQ – No one Trusts Anyone......................................................................................................................8

Relations UQ – No one Trusts Anyone.............................................................................................8
***Links***................................................................................................................................................................9

***Links***.........................................................................................................................................9
2NC Link Wall............................................................................................................................................................9

2NC Link Wall....................................................................................................................................9
Link – Democracy Assistance...................................................................................................................................10

Link – Democracy Assistance..........................................................................................................10
Link – Arab Spring....................................................................................................................................................11

Link – Arab Spring...........................................................................................................................11
Link - Bahrain...........................................................................................................................................................13

Link - Bahrain...................................................................................................................................13
Bahrain Link UQ.......................................................................................................................................................14

Bahrain Link UQ..............................................................................................................................14
Link - Shiites in Bahrain...........................................................................................................................................15

Link - Shiites in Bahrain..................................................................................................................15
Link - Appeasing Iran...............................................................................................................................................16

Link - Appeasing Iran......................................................................................................................16
Link – Egypt..............................................................................................................................................................17

Link – Egypt......................................................................................................................................17
A/T: Relations Resilient – Oil...................................................................................................................................18

A/T: Relations Resilient – Oil..........................................................................................................18
A/T: Relations Resilient – Security..........................................................................................................................19

A/T: Relations Resilient – Security.................................................................................................19
***Impacts***..........................................................................................................................................................20

***Impacts***...................................................................................................................................20

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2NC Proliferation......................................................................................................................................................20

2NC Proliferation..............................................................................................................................20
Saudi Prolif Dominoes.............................................................................................................................................22

Saudi Prolif Dominoes.....................................................................................................................22
A/T: Deterrence.........................................................................................................................................................23

A/T: Deterrence.................................................................................................................................23
A/T: Saudi Prolif Inevitable......................................................................................................................................24

A/T: Saudi Prolif Inevitable.............................................................................................................24
A/T: Pakistan Gives the Bomb..................................................................................................................................25

A/T: Pakistan Gives the Bomb........................................................................................................25
A/T: Iran Prolif = Saudi Prolif inevitable.................................................................................................................26

A/T: Iran Prolif = Saudi Prolif inevitable......................................................................................26
Iran Prolif Good........................................................................................................................................................27

Iran Prolif Good................................................................................................................................27
Saudi Prolif Terrorism...........................................................................................................................................29

Saudi Prolif  Terrorism................................................................................................................29
Impact - Terrorism....................................................................................................................................................30

Impact - Terrorism...........................................................................................................................30
Impact – Dollar Heg..................................................................................................................................................31

Impact – Dollar Heg.........................................................................................................................31
Ext: Relz key to dollar heg........................................................................................................................................33

Ext: Relz key to dollar heg...............................................................................................................33
EXT – Oil Security...................................................................................................................................................34

EXT – Oil Security............................................................................................................................34
Impact – Regional Power Projection........................................................................................................................35

Impact – Regional Power Projection..............................................................................................35
Impact – Middle East Stability..................................................................................................................................36

Impact – Middle East Stability........................................................................................................36
Impact – China..........................................................................................................................................................37

Impact – China..................................................................................................................................37
EXT – China Fill-In..................................................................................................................................................39

EXT – China Fill-In..........................................................................................................................39
***AFF Answers***................................................................................................................................................40

***AFF Answers***.........................................................................................................................40
Relations Low...........................................................................................................................................................41

Relations Low....................................................................................................................................41

ASU 2011 Steven Murray

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EXT – No Link.........................................................................................................................................................42

EXT – No Link..................................................................................................................................42
US-Saudi Relations Resilient....................................................................................................................................43

US-Saudi Relations Resilient...........................................................................................................43
EXT – Relations Resilient: Oil and Security............................................................................................................44

EXT – Relations Resilient: Oil and Security.................................................................................44
Saudi Prolif Good - Iran............................................................................................................................................46

Saudi Prolif Good - Iran..................................................................................................................46
Saudi Prolif Good - Stability.....................................................................................................................................47

Saudi Prolif Good - Stability...........................................................................................................47
EXT – Saudi Prolif Inevitable...................................................................................................................................48

EXT – Saudi Prolif Inevitable.........................................................................................................48
A/T: Saudi Prolif – Incentive/Means........................................................................................................................49

A/T: Saudi Prolif – Incentive/Means..............................................................................................49
A/T: Saudi Prolif – Iran Alt Cause............................................................................................................................51

A/T: Saudi Prolif – Iran Alt Cause.................................................................................................51
Prolif: Not Bad..........................................................................................................................................................52

Prolif: Not Bad..................................................................................................................................52
A/T: China Aggression.............................................................................................................................................53

A/T: China Aggression.....................................................................................................................53

ASU 2011 Steven Murray

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1NC Saudi DA
Unique Link - pushing democracy assistance will collapse US-Saudi relations Tarpley 2011 (Press TV interview with Webster Griffin Tarpley, author, journalist and lecturer from Washington,
June 18, "Saudi Arabia alarmed by US intentions" http://www.presstv.com/detail/189582.html, SRM) Webster Griffin Tarpley: Well, I think we have to start from the premise that the Saudi royal family is very afraid and they've been afraid of course for decades, but more recently they're very afraid because they've seen the Mubarak government brought down by a US-sponsored colored revolution run by Samantha Powell and Michael McDowell here from the National Security Council in the White House and they're horrified by that. So you could say that Saudi Arabia is in play and that's the big strategic factor at the present time. At the beginning of June we had a very interesting op-ed here in the Washington Post by Prince Turki al-Faisal saying that if the US blocks the creation of a Palestinian state at the UN General Assembly in September there would be disastrous consequences for US Saudi relations. And I take it that you look at Prince Bandar -- his trip to Pakistan and China -- Saudi Arabia is trying to find security solutions, which do not involve the US because they can see that the US is fomenting the troubles in Yemen; that the US has fomented the troubles in Bahrain -- both of those are means to destabilize the kingdom.

Relations decline over the Arab Spring will drive the Saudis to proliferate Guzansky July 1st, 2011 (Yoel Guzansky is a research fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies at
Tel Aviv University. He joined INSS after serving at Israel's National Security Council; "TEHRAN TESTS SAUDIS' NERVE ON NUKES", LEXIS, SRM) UNTIL recently it appeared that US security guarantees would be a preferred alternative to Riyadh's pursuit of a nuclear option. However, the combination of Iran's steady nuclear progress and Riyadh's growing frustration with Washington's ``Arab Spring'' policies threaten to drive the Saudis in precisely this direction. As a leading Arab state and as Iran's ideological-religious rival and main competitor for regional influence, Saudi Arabia will find it difficult to sit quietly should Iran obtain military nuclear capability. The same week that the UN nuclear watchdog raised new concerns of ``undisclosed nuclearrelated activities in Iran'' it was reported that Saudi Arabia was to build 16 nuclear reactors at a cost of more than $US300 billion.

Saudi prolif leads to fast regional prolif Center for Contemporary Conflict 2004 (“Conference on WMD Proliferation in the Middle East: Directions and Policy Options in the New Century” http://www.ciaonet.org/olj/si/si_3_8/si_3_8_ruj01.pdf)
James Russell from the Naval Postgraduate School presented an argument that the strategic problems facing Saudi Arabia are causing it to consider acquisition of nuclear capabilities in the context of upgrading and/or replacing its CSS-2 missiles bought from China in the late 1980s. Russell outlined a set of changing strategic circumstances, which are combining to bring the issue of nuclear and/or WMD proliferation into play in Riyadh. First, the U.S. relationship upon which Saudi Arabia’s security has been founded is in an uncertain state. Second, the region environment is becoming more threatening due to Iran’s nuclear aspirations and the prospect of a Shi’a-dominated state in Iraq. Third, internal politics in Saudi Arabia complicate and reduce the maneuver room available to the royal family in addressing its security conundrums. A decision by Saudi Arabia to go nuclear would cause a cascade of regional proliferation. Potential internal instability within the Kingdom also makes Saudi Arabia a particularly dangerous proliferation case. Rumors of Saudi involvement in Pakistan’s nuclear program, in addition to the existing relationship with China through the CSS-2 program are all suggestive of an interest in nuclear capabilities. Finally, U.S. policy options appear limited—the United Stated cannot push Saudi Arabia too far away or hold it too close. Discussions of the issue raised the question, “Are Saudi nuclear noises used as a means to ensure U.S. engagement?

Rapid prolif causes pre-emptive nuclear war. Heurlin 2005 (Jean Monnet Professor of European Security and Integration at the Department of Political
Science of the University of Copenhagen, and Sten Rynning, "Missile defence", p 162-3) Arms control and non-proliferation regimes have often been criticized for delaying but not preventing proliferation. However, delay may be worth while, as rapid proliferation in principle creates the most

ASU 2011 Steven Murray

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dangerous situations. Kenneth Waltz argued, in his famous and controversial |981 article, that more nuclear proliferation might be a better option than less, because the possession of nuclear weapons tends to make the politicians in charge more responsible and reduce the risk of war.” Yet Waltz also argued that rapid proliferation is extremely dangerous, as it encourages pre-emptive strikes in order to prevent the proliferation as well as leaving the nuclear newcomers without the necessary security measures. By 2004, the basic Waltzian argument on the positive effects of proliferation still holds for major powers. However, we have had negative experiences in the Middle East with respect to the use of non-nuclear WMD, and terrorists have appeared on the international stage. Terrorists are actors different from states and governments, and except for nationalist terrorist groups, they do not have territories to defend. They are thus comparatively free to act in the era of proliferation, and a broad range of counter-proliferation measures are therefore to be preferred in addition to the cost-enhancing MD project.

Turki . Yet he is a member of the Saudi royal family and was once the kingdom's intelligence chief and its former ambassador to both London and Washington.com/cms/s/0/4082dc70-984d-11e0-ae45-00144feab49a. But the same kingdom that has taken Obama "seriously" is an absolute monarchy that.” said David Rothkopf. The kingdom will not be lectured to.has had it with the United States. and to add insult to injury. and Palestinians with the support of the Arab League have been unwilling to continue talks until the freeze is resumed. And the military co-operation remains close. arms. SRM) Prince Turki is not now in the government. SRM) Indeed. Point taken." Saudi Arabia.whereby America had pushed Israel to impose a settlement freeze before talks started. "It is these officials who propose that the Netanyahu government should be rewarded for its intransigence rather than sanctioned. Indeed. "The United States failed to stick to its assurances." charged Prince Turki al-Faisal. Israel.ft. and he lets America have it. that Obama had not demanded the same rights for Palestinians under Israeli occupation. 2010 ("Saudi prince blasts US for not 'curbing' Israel" LEXIS. which followed a presentation on how Sesame Street uses muppets in children's television across the Middle East to foster tolerance and respect.and the administration's decision to oppose any effort in the United Nations to create a Palestinian state. The man is solidly credentialed." He said that Riyadh and other Arab countries had agreed to back the Israeli-Palestinian peace negotiations "under the United States-negotiated partial colony freeze" . "The Saudi Threat". "It has failed to curb the brutal Israeli policy of collective punishment. Relations on the brink Financial Times 2011 (June 16. In this matter. a public beheading. a foreign policy analyst and former Clinton administration official. it's not possible that he was unaware that commentators like me would be picky about the lack of basic freedoms. "Arab spring tests US-Saudi relationship" http://www. He starts by citing what he calls President Obama's "controversial speech last month. for example . He is also angry as hell.html#axzz1SlOYMHrW. the stationing of Israeli troops on Palestinian territory as if the territory were part of American sovereign lands. protection from UN sanctions and. among other things. The Saudis are pressing ahead with a $60bn deal to buy arms and F-15 fighter jets. “My sense is that they’re trying to manage it because of what they used to call during the Thatcher era the ‘Tina’ phenomenon – There Is No Alternative.” Relations rocky Jerusalem Post. bans women from driving cars.and by implication all of Saudi Arabia ." he said. offered the Netanyahu government more money. of course. He also criticized American officials for not standing up to Israel. maintaining." Turki said of reported US proposals to get Israel to renew the freeze. It is sick and tired of American favoritism to Israel . for the occasional criminal." He led off his address. by saying that puppets don't only appear on TV screens. LEXIS. He doesn't care. "There are live human muppets in Washington here who are run by AIPAC. and unfortunately what they bring is war and suffering. Turki also lambasted the Israel lobby. arbitrary arrests and killings. It is also a country that offers no freedom of religion but offers. heard what Obama said and took it "seriously. he wrote. America is doing what Israel wants.the exuberant congressional reception for Binyamin Netanyahu. former Saudi ambassador to the US and ex-director of Saudi intelligence." and he noted. That freeze expired on September 26. saying that "There has grown over the years a web of very tight and strong strings that bind the US to her client state. that was the point. “It’s a fraught but critical relationship. while the US is training a “facilities security force” to protect the kingdom’s vital oil infrastructure. He also noted at the beginning of his . the two remain in sync on many issues – ensuring stability in Yemen. Speaking to the annual conference of the National Council for US-Arab Relations. combating al-Qaeda and containing Iran. admonishing Arab governments to embrace democracy and provide freedom to their populations. SRM) Two days after the United States unveiled an arms deal with Saudi Arabia estimated at $60 billion. one of Riyadh's leading figures blasted the US for not living up to its commitments in the Israeli-Palestinian negotiations and not doing more to rein in Israel. shamefully.ASU 2011 Steven Murray 6 Saudi DA ***Uniqueness*** UQ – US-Saudi relations Low Relations on the brink because of SQ democracy promotion Washington Post 2011 (7-14. Given that Turki has spent a good deal of time in the West.

he did praise America at times for its pursuit of peace and the good relations it has enjoyed with Riyadh." but that he had opted to go with "genuineness." . "Saudi Arabia's will and determination to continue its strong and fruitful relations with the United States [comes] not only because it is America which has shown the capability to bring Israeli craven ambitions to heel." he said.ASU 2011 Steven Murray 7 Saudi DA remarks that some friends who had seen his speech suggested he be "princely. "but also because the United States has been a beacon of goodwill and progress to the rest of humanity and will continue to be so." In a talk dedicated to US-Saudi relations.

the Saudis can’t trust that the United States will defend it in a time of need. http://www.rightsidenews. The Americans cannot trust that the Iranians will not make a bid for Saudi Arabia’s oil wealth (though the military logistics required for such a move are likely beyond Iran’s capabilities at this point). Finally.-Saudi Dilemma: Iran's Reshaping of Persian Gulf Politics". Iran cannot trust that the United States. July 2011 (Reva. especially if the United States is preoccupied with other matters and/or has developed a relationship with Iran that it feels the need to maintain.html. Geopolitical Weekly: "The U. SRM) The threat of a double-cross is a real one for all sides to this conflict. journalist for STRATFOR.ASU 2011 Steven Murray 8 Saudi DA Relations UQ – No one Trusts Anyone No one trusts anyone Bhalla. will not engage in military action against Iran down the line. .S.com/2011071914093/world/geopolitics/the-us-saudidilemma-irans-reshaping-of-persian-gulf-politics. once freed up.

in our view. They also said that they and their counterparts in several Arab countries have noticed that Saudi Arabia has started to launch political and economic initiatives. . Al-Masry Al-Youm for Journalism and Publication is an independent Egyptian media organization established in 2003. Indeed. Oil and Gas Journal. "A 'proxy war' in Bahrain". to thwart democratic revolutions in the region. that is so unusual an event it seems clear to us that something profound has changed in the normal dynamic.almasryalyoum.” The New York Times on Tuesday pointed to tension in US-Saudi relations against the backdrop of the latter intervening in Bahrain. and are likely to raise the issue of troops sent by Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states to Bahrain to help it suppress an uprising.ASU 2011 Steven Murray 9 Saudi DA ***Links*** 2NC Link Wall Not upsetting relations now. managing director and head of commodities research at Barclays Capital in London. They fear Washington might turn a blind eye to the Saudi intervention so as not to jeopardize its relations with a strategic ally in a region that controls the global oil market. potentially represent the evidence of a shift in the main parameters of key political and economic relationships in the region. plan links Al-Masry Al-youm 2011 (march 3. This evidence is awesome." said Paul Horsnell. The activists are due to meet with Clinton during her forthcoming visit to Egypt. For its part. LEXIS. The king returned from medical leave this month and has handed out billions of dollars in grants to stave off protestors." Saudi King Abdullah was already furious at the haste of the US in abandoning Egypt's President Hosni Mubarak to his fate. Seriously. "When an action by GCC governments elicits for different reasons an unveiled negative diplomatic response from the US and Iranian governments. Saudi Arabia said it did not agree with the way the US administration has handled developments that led to the ouster of former President Hosni Mubarak. events in Bahrain and the involvement of external forces there.com/en/node/354860 SRM) Egyptian democracy activists said on Tuesday that they will be urging US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to curb Saudi Arabia’s attempts to stop the democratic tide in the region. 2011 (March 28. "Egyptian democracy activists to urge Clinton to restrain Saudi Arabia" http://www. SRM) "The [friendly] relationship between the US and Saudi Arabia has been the key axis for the oil market over many decades.” Another activist said: “Washington should realize that such interventions by an ally will have an adverse effect on the way it handles the new situation in the region. The key to relations has shifted from oil and security to democracy. adding that Clinton and Defense Secretary Robert Gates had canceled a visit to Riyadh because of the matter. One of the activists said that sending troops to Bahrain is an “an example of how Saudi Arabia can use its economic power and its relations with Islamist groups to curb democracy in the Arab world. as well as use the media.

but will likely be constrained from acting due to the high military costs of any endeavor. . SRM) It appears Saudi Arabia and Bahrain are willing to go the distance in terms of crushing protests in the country.." The Saudis "are upset.S.ASU 2011 Steven Murray 10 Saudi DA Link – Democracy Assistance Link . and a potential opening for Iran in the region. 11.” Democracy push in the arab spring cause a US-Saudi rift Business Insider 2011 ("What's Really Happening In Bahrain And Why It Matters" LEXIS. With the Sept. Support for Change" http://www. "U. leadership chooses the former. said in phone interview.S. “Saudi Arabia wasn’t happy with the way the Obama administration dealt with Hosni Mubarak.com/news/2011-07-17/arab-spring-pits-saudi-security-concern-against-u-s-support-foruprisings. including a tough pro-reform speech by Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton in the Persian Gulf state of Qatar in January. who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the Saudis' traditional reticence. The same day.” Khalid al-Dakhil. when push comes to shove.S and others think. 2001. Bush's administration allowed a Shiite-dominated government to take control in Iraq after an invasion it opposed.S.html. in which she warned that the region's foundations are "sinking into the sand. terrorist attacks. or retools and focuses on stability. 2001 (June 19. “They also disagreed over Bahrain. they are angry. which last year approved a $60 billion arms sale to Saudi Arabia. signed a marriage contract with the daughter of Saudi King Abdullah. If U. What is most uncertain now is whether the U.S. President Barack Obama’s government on June 16 put Bahrain on its list of human rights violators along with countries such as North Korea and Iran.’s alliance with Saudi Arabia. Riyadh was alarmed when George W. the 2003 invasion of Iraq and more Saudi oil sales to Asia. The popular uprisings in the Middle East this year tested their partnership by pitting U. “Now. a son of Bahrain’s King Hamad. official. "Arab Spring Pits Saudi Security Against U. "They don't know exactly what to do. SRM) The Arab Spring might be turning chilly for the U.” Karasik said in a telephone interview from Dubai. called for a transition in Egypt and dialogue in Bahrain. it could lead to some difficult rifts with the Saudis.S.Democracy Assistance LA Times. Saudis in Mideast tug of war. Saudi Arabia backed former Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak right to the end of his rule in February and sent troops to protect the Al Khalifa rulers in Bahrain. Saudi King Abdullah was outraged when President Obama urged Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak to surrender power after 18 days of street demonstrations. SRM) The pivot has come after years of growing unhappiness with the U. continues in its support for democracy in the region. The Saudis also have taken offense at other perceived slights.S. support for democracy against Saudi Arabia’s desire for a status quo.bloomberg." said a former senior U. approach to the region. they are frustrated." LEXIS. Saudi Arabia will pursue its own policies regardless of what the U.S. an analyst at the Institute for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis. sway over Saudi Arabia has declined as their policies diverge.S.. The U.S." Disputes over democracy assistance hurt US-Saudi relations Bloomberg 2011 (July 17. Sheikh Khalid bin Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa. said Theodore Karasik. U. a Saudi political science professor.S. Iran will continue to flap its wings. Quest for greater influence intensifies as uprisings in the region further drive a wedge between the longtime allies.

stability.S.S. Mr Miller said. the officials in Riyadh have said little publicly about Egypt or Syria.html#axzz1SlOYMHrW. while North America got 22 percent.S.ASU 2011 Steven Murray 11 Saudi DA Link – Arab Spring Interference in the Arab spring crushes US-Saudi relations. Support for Change" http://www. Asia received 58 percent of Saudi exports. The relationship is founded on the core understanding that the US will provide security for Saudi Arabia. but the onset of dislocating change in the region is anything but good news for the Saudis.and wants him to ignore the Americans. "Arab spring tests US-Saudi relationship" http://www. Nawaf Obaid. “missteps in the region” since Sept. wrote in an editorial for the Washington Post in May that a “tectonic shift has occurred in the U. was trying to incite rebellion against President Bashar al-Assad. is also a reflection of how Saudi Arabia has increasingly turned toward Asia to tap new oil markets and for business expansion. Clinton said on July 11 that Assad had lost his legitimacy to rule amid a crackdown on dissenters.S.S. SRM) A day before Mubarak ceded power to the military. OPEC said in its 2009 statistical bulletin. "Arab Spring Pits Saudi Security Against U. a senior fellow at the King Faisal Center for Research & Islamic Studies in Riyadh. The US support for democratic change means “we have become a source of insecurity rather than security for Saudi Arabia”.com/news/2011-07-17/arab-spring-pits-saudi-security-concern-against-u-s-support-foruprisings. In 2008.” Arab spring could be the deciding factor in relations .com/cms/s/0/4082dc70-984d-11e0-ae45-00144feab49a.S. unity and independence of Arab countries. The changing relationship with the U.. which in return will do its part to keep oil prices stable.S. Washington and Riyadh could be at a turning point in their 60-year relationship as the Arab spring has laid bare its contradictions.bloomberg. About 65 percent of the kingdom’s 2009 daily exports of 6.html. Since then.com/news/2011-07-17/arab-spring-pits-saudi-security-concern-against-u-s-support-foruprisings. diplomats have been dropping by the royal palace in Amman almost every week this spring to convince Jordanian King Abdullah II that democratic reform is the best way to quell the protests against his rule.S. US and Saudis competing over arab spring LA Times. Saudis in Mideast tug of war. Saudi Arabia is urging the Hashemite kingdom to stick to the kind of autocratic traditions that have kept the House of Saud secure for centuries. The Saudis last month offered Jordan a coveted opportunity to join a wealthy regional bloc called the Gulf Cooperation Council.” The Saudi government “doesn’t want to see further instability in the Middle East. SRM) Senior U. "U. "Arab Spring Pits Saudi Security Against U. But another powerful ally also has been lobbying Abdullah -. It has come under strain from the outset. notably when the US recognised the state of Israel in 1948. The wave of democracy spreading across the Middle East is widely viewed as good news in America. Quest for greater influence intensifies as uprisings in the region further drive a wedge between the longtime allies. a move that would give the impoverished kingdom new investment. citing Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal. overwhelms oil ties Bloomberg 2011 (July 17.” He argued that Saudi Arabia will chart its own policy after U. 11 and its “ill. SRM) The Saudi government said on July 11 after a discussion on the “continuing crises” that it is “keen on the security. 2011 (June 19. while North America received 17 percent. SRM) Still.ft." LEXIS. the Saudi Press Agency said.27 million barrels went to Asia and the Pacific. where the government this month said the U.swamps security Financial Times 2011 (June 16. Continued interference in the Arab spring will collapse US-Saudi relations Bloomberg 2011 (July 17.bloomberg.” said Karasik in Dubai. Saudi Arabia denounced the “flagrant interference of some countries” in the internal affairs of Egypt.conceived response to the Arab protest movement. jobs and .html. and Riyadh has been piling up gifts at Abdullah's door to sell its point of view. Support for Change" http://www.-Saudi relationship.

with Egypt and Turkey.ASU 2011 Steven Murray 12 Saudi DA security ties. 2011 (June 19. he carefully avoided any mention of Saudi Arabia. "We do have a lot of friction there. Saudi Arabia is expanding and strengthening ties to its fellow Sunni monarchies. But it means a further loss of influence for Washington in the Middle East at a time when other crucial relations -. an absolute monarchy that brooks little or no dissent. "The 'Arab Spring' has injected tension into the relationship. But when President Obama demanded reform from Arab regimes in a major speech last month. Jordan. "U. official who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue. Saudis in Mideast tug of war. charting a new course on both Arab-Israeli issues and its campaign to contain Iran." said a U.S. Quest for greater influence intensifies as uprisings in the region further drive a wedge between the longtime allies." said Abdullah Askar. is trying to step out of America's shadow. which is built on a simple foundation: Saudi oil for U. for example -. The quiet contest for Jordan is one sign of the rivalry that has erupted across the Middle East this year between Saudi Arabia and the United States.S. longtime allies that have been put on a collision course by the popular uprisings that have swept the region. . Riyadh.S.and sometimes seeks to undermine it. and urged the region's governments to share more power.S. the Saudis wrote a check for $400 million in aid to Amman two weeks ago.-Saudi alliance. To sweeten the pot." US-Saudi competition over the arab spring diminishes US-Saudi relations and undermines US influence in the middle east LA Times.. in Riyadh. SRM) The Obama administration has generally supported the protests. who is vice chairman of the foreign affairs committee of the king's Consultative Council.S. or Majlis Shura. It is embracing a foreign policy that often diverges from Washington's -. is turning its back on loyal allies. who see their own stability threatened in the region's unrest. This shift doesn't mean the end of the 70-year-old U. Bahrain and elsewhere in hopes they will resist political change.are facing new strains. On the key political issues "the Obama administration doesn't really listen to the Saudi views. their first assistance in years. have shelled out billions of dollars to neighbors in Egypt. The Saudis. which believes the U." LEXIS. military protection.

S. who have demanded democratic reforms in the Kingdom.000 troops in mid-March to suppress Shiite-dominated demonstrations.Bahrain Saudis fear a democratic Bahrain Business Insider 2011 ("What's Really Happening In Bahrain And Why It Matters" LEXIS. Oman. By intervening. Cook. SRM) Iran is the chief Shia power in the Middle East. majority Shia). and they believe Washington has failed to see the threat. you'll note that it's really a faceoff between two powers: Saudi Arabia and Iran. But for Saudi Arabia. Saudis in Mideast tug of war. said Riyadh's forceful response in Bahrain "demonstrates the Saudis have absolutely no faith in our position on the region. "Victory for the protesters [in Bahrain] would be seen as a victory for Iran." LEXIS. who chaired President Barack Obama's strategic review of U.S. Aid to Bahrainian revolution destroys US-Saudi relations American Spectator 2011 ("Achieving the Impossible". the White House called for formal negotiations between the country's Saudi-backed royal family and members of its Shiite majority.. a Mideast specialist at the Council on Foreign Relations. meanwhile.ASU 2011 Steven Murray 13 Saudi DA Link . SRM) The tension has been most visible in Bahrain. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. and Iran's leaders ruled Bahrain for a significant part of that country's history." . Success in Bahrain could also spur on protesters in Saudi Arabia. EBSCO. Qatar. SRM) U. Iran has rejected the presence of Saudi Arabian troops in Bahrain. it would surely become Shia led (remember. Kuwait. policy toward Afghanistan and Pakistan in 2009. When sectarian protests first flared in Bahrain in February. and infect its sphere of influence.S. warnings and sent more than 1. Saudi officials angrily told their American counterparts that the protesters were Iranian proxies and that Riyadh would never accept a Shiite-dominated government in Bahrain. The move recalled the approach of the former Soviet Union. and are going to look after their own interests in a way they know how. 2011 (June 19. SRM) The ruling powers have responded to the pressures with iron fists and open checkbooks. a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution's Saban Center for Middle East Policy. ruling out revolution in the kingdom's sphere of influence just like the Russians tried to outlaw freedom in Eastern Europe." More evidence LA Times. Saudi Arabia "invoked a 21st-century version of the old Soviet Brezhnev doctrine. according to U. ignoring Washington's calls for restraint. a Mideast expert at the University of Vermont. And they know that everyone in the Middle East would read it as a defeat for Saudi Arabia. the Gulf Cooperation Council. Saudi officials view the protests as an effort by Iran to gain a foothold on their border. says Bruce Riedel." said Gregory Gause. Saudi Arabia then dispatched armored vehicles to help the ruling Khalifa family put down the protests." Saudi's are sending a clear message not to intervene in Bahrain Institutional Investor 2011 ("Have Gulf Leaders Recognized The Need For Change?" LEXIS. Quest for greater influence intensifies as uprisings in the region further drive a wedge between the longtime allies.S.S.-Saudi relations. with more that 90% of its population claiming adherence to the religion. have deteriorated to their lowest point in decades because of Riyadh's belief that the Obama administration is inadvertently strengthening Tehran at its expense. in line with what protesters are asking for. If Bahrain was to become more democratic. "The Saudis are as angry at us now as they've been at any point since the shah fell in 1979. They're calling for democratic reforms in the country. sent troops to Bahrain to suppress protests against the regime of King Hamad bin-Isa al-Khalifa. Riedel contends. The country is just across the Persian Gulf from Bahrain. officials. [CONTINUES] Steven A. where Riyadh ignored U. a regional alliance of Bahrain. At Riyadh's prompting. "U. this would be a disaster. But if you look at a broader picture of the region.

The country falls heavily under the sphere of influence of its much larger neighbour Saudi Arabia. 2011 ("Bahrain: Foreign Intervention" LEXIS. a vital strategic interest in the region. 2011 ("Bahrain must not be allowed to crush its way back to respectability". Onlookers insist that Riyadh is not directly calling the shots. the U. another country wracked by protests ( EC Mar. By the end of the week. used local forces to drive protesters out of Pearl roundabout early Wednesday and then banned public demonstrations.ASU 2011 Steven Murray 14 Saudi DA Bahrain Link UQ US is being ambiguous towards Bahrain now IPS. the Peninsula Shield troops had not participated in the crackdown and were just protecting infrastructure. 2011 ("WASHINGTON'S PATCHWORK POLICY ON DEMOCRACY" LEXIS. Despite the Bahraini government's crackdown on civilians and popular calls for political reform. shame and handouts to deflate the proposed "Day of Rage" in Saudi Arabia last Friday. including representative governance. Emboldened by that flop. some analysts see Obama's approach to the uprisings in the region not as conforming to a broad strategic vision.p4 ).S. has acceded to the Khalifa regime's minimal concessions and taken an ambiguous position on the presence of Saudi troops in the country.Bahrain under the influence of Saudis now The Times London. the Obama administration has taken a decidedly different approach than in Libya or even Egypt. but as hinging on concessions to regional partners' "red lines" for reforms . Bahrain declared a three-month state of emergency on Tuesday. Last week. SRM) Riyadh used a mixture of threats. the GCC also pledged $20 billion in aid to Bahrain and Oman. Saudi Arabia is pushing a more assertive solution to the Bahrain problem. In the case of Bahrain. with Saudi troops having crossed the King Fahd Causeway bridge in mind-March to help quell protests. where U. SRM) Despite this rhetoric.after its US-supported policy of dialogue faltered.as in Bahrain.S. LEXIS. Link UQ . Bahrain has decided it needs a more authoritarian solution -. leading Bahraini and Saudi elites alike to fear the spreading influence of Shia Iran. While Bahrain's ruling family is Sunni. the majority are Shia. SRM) Bahrain is the home of the American Fifth Fleet.backed by the Saudis -. ally Saudi Arabia fears that a more politically inclusive regime will tempt Iran to expand its sphere of influence. which critics say has only exacerbated sectarian tensions. rather. Saudi influence in Bahrain strong now Energy Compass. Following Monday's troop deployment.4. .

and for good reason.-Saudi Dilemma: Iran's Reshaping of Persian Gulf Politics".com/2011071914093/world/geopolitics/the-us-saudidilemma-irans-reshaping-of-persian-gulf-politics. July 2011 (Reva. This is an uncomfortable reality for the Saudi royals to cope with. http://www. but there was little hiding the fact that Iran had seized an opportunity to pose a nightmare scenario for the Saudi royals: an Iranian-backed Shiite uprising spreading from the isles of Bahrain to the Shiite-concentrated. Shiite dissent in this part of the region is likely to endure. is in Tehran’s hands. journalist for STRATFOR. The demonstrations in Bahrain are far calmer now than they were in mid-March at the peak of the crisis.html. but the concerns of the GCC states have not subsided.S. When Shiite-led protests erupted in Bahrain in the spring. we did not view the demonstrations simply as a natural outgrowth of the so-called Arab Spring. There were certainly overlapping factors. This explains Saudi Arabia’s hasty response to the Bahraini unrest.ASU 2011 Steven Murray 15 Saudi DA Link . but Riyadh has largely resigned itself to the idea that Iraq. and this is a reality that Iran can exploit in the long term through its developing covert capabilities. Saudi Arabia is greatly unnerved by the political evolution in Iraq. Halfhearted attempts at national dialogues aside. but what is amplifying Saudi Arabia’s concerns in the region right now — and apparently nudging Riyadh toward the negotiating table with Tehran — is the current situation in Bahrain.rightsidenews. during which it led a rare military intervention of GCC forces in Bahrain at the invitation of Manama to stymie a broader Iranian destabilization campaign. oil-rich Eastern Province of the Saudi kingdom. Geopolitical Weekly: "The U. for now. . The Saudis increasingly will rely on regional powers such as Turkey in trying to maintain a Sunni bulwark against Iran in Iraq.Shiites in Bahrain Supporting the Shia rebellion in Bahrain would collapse US-Saudi relations Bhalla. SRM) Not surprisingly.

S. The U. to reduce drastically the number of forces it has devoted to fighting wars with Sunni Islamist militants (who are also by definition at war with Iran).com/2011071914093/world/geopolitics/the-us-saudidilemma-irans-reshaping-of-persian-gulf-politics. position in Iraq is tenuous at best. SRM) The Saudis cannot fully trust U.S. intentions at this point.S. Geopolitical Weekly: "The U. journalist for STRATFOR. .S. and to try to reconstruct a balance of power in the region that ultimately prevents any one state — whether Arab or Persian — from controlling all the oil in the Persian Gulf. The U.S.-Saudi Dilemma: Iran's Reshaping of Persian Gulf Politics". If the United States comes to the conclusion that it does not have any good options in the near term for dealing with Iran. a U.ASU 2011 Steven Murray 16 Saudi DA Link . and while developing an understanding with Iran is a trying process.Appeasing Iran US-Iran deal collapses relations with Saudis Bhalla.rightsidenews. and Riyadh cannot rule out the possibility of Washington entering its own accommodation with Iran and thus leaving Saudi Arabia in the lurch. July 2011 (Reva. The United States has three basic interests: to maintain the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz.-Iranian accommodation — however jarring on the surface — is not out of the question. http://www. nothing fundamentally binds the United States to Saudi Arabia.html. position in this regard is flexible.

2011 (June 19. a powerful Islamist organization.. SRM) In Egypt. . "U.ASU 2011 Steven Murray 17 Saudi DA Link – Egypt Saudis are fighting against the Muslim Brotherhood LA Times.S. officials urge reform." LEXIS.S. Quest for greater influence intensifies as uprisings in the region further drive a wedge between the longtime allies. Saudis in Mideast tug of war. The Saudis fear the group could challenge the religious doctrine that provides legitimacy to the Saudi monarchy. while U. Riyadh has given Cairo $4 billion to maintain the status quo and to counter the rise of the Muslim Brotherhood.

Support for Change" http://www." This month. Yet diplomatic delicacy will accomplish only so much to repair the relationship.S. citing Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal.S. Clinton said on July 11 that Assad had lost his legitimacy to rule amid a crackdown on dissenters.html. King Abdullah. a 28-nation organization that seeks to ensure stable energy supplies.27 million barrels went to Asia and the Pacific. with Riyadh stepping up foreign aid and embarking on a $130-billion domestic subsidy program to prevent internal unrest.S. Obama's repeated public calls for price relief. But now.. while North America got 22 percent. (SABIC)’s Chief Executive Officer Mohamed al-Mady said in May that the world’s largest petrochemical maker.S. SRM) Saudi Arabia’s independence from U.” said Sullivan at Georgetown University. months after becoming king. to China more and more each year." said Herman Franssen. Quest for greater influence intensifies as uprisings in the region further drive a wedge between the longtime allies. the Saudi Press Agency said.S. but also from the fact that oil demand has shifted from the U. and analysts expect to see the Saudis strike out again on their own." LEXIS.com/news/2011-07-17/arab-spring-pits-saudi-security-concern-against-u-s-support-foruprisings. "Arab Spring Pits Saudi Security Against U.Saudi shift to Asia Bloomberg 2011 (July 17. Saudis in Mideast tug of war. SRM) The United States and Saudi Arabia are drifting apart on energy too. "U. Since then. officials are clear that they intend to tread lightly because of their appreciation that upheaval in the world's largest oil exporter could upend a fragile world economy. is also a reflection of how Saudi Arabia has increasingly turned toward Asia to tap new oil markets and for business expansion. Interference in the Arab spring crushes US-Saudi relations. In 2008. The drive for Saudi dominance trumps relations concerns LA Times. Saudi Basic Industries Corp. "They are not going to be dictated to by the United States anymore.html. was trying to incite rebellion against President Bashar alAssad. while North America received 17 percent. you could call them and ask them to do something about high oil prices. overwhelms oil ties Bloomberg 2011 (July 17. experts say.S. OPEC said in its 2009 statistical bulletin. picked China as the first destination on his maiden foreign tour in January 2006. SRM) A day before Mubarak ceded power to the military. . Asia received 58 percent of Saudi exports. plans further expansions in China. Support for Change" http://www. The changing relationship with the U. For decades both countries saw mutual benefit in holding down oil prices. "In the old days. but their own need for revenue.S. "Arab Spring Pits Saudi Security Against U. U.bloomberg. 2011 (June 19. the officials in Riyadh have said little publicly about Egypt or Syria. Their motive was not. the Saudis announced that they would break from OPEC's consensus by increasing their oil output. however. where the government this month said the U.S. Saudi Arabia denounced the “flagrant interference of some countries” in the internal affairs of Egypt.ASU 2011 Steven Murray 18 Saudi DA A/T: Relations Resilient – Oil Oil won't sustain relations . foreign policy “is not just from the Arab Spring. former chief economist at the International Energy Agency. it needs steeper oil prices.com/news/2011-07-17/arab-spring-pits-saudi-security-concern-against-u-s-support-foruprisings. 86. About 65 percent of the kingdom’s 2009 daily exports of 6.bloomberg.

notably when the US recognised the state of Israel in 1948. "Arab spring tests US-Saudi relationship" http://www. which in return will do its part to keep oil prices stable. but the onset of dislocating change in the region is anything but good news for the Saudis.com/cms/s/0/4082dc70-984d-11e0-ae45-00144feab49a. . The US support for democratic change means “we have become a source of insecurity rather than security for Saudi Arabia”. The relationship is founded on the core understanding that the US will provide security for Saudi Arabia. Mr Miller said.ASU 2011 Steven Murray 19 Saudi DA A/T: Relations Resilient – Security Arab spring could be the deciding factor in relations . SRM) Still.html#axzz1SlOYMHrW.swamps security Financial Times 2011 (June 16. It has come under strain from the outset. The wave of democracy spreading across the Middle East is widely viewed as good news in America. Washington and Riyadh could be at a turning point in their 60-year relationship as the Arab spring has laid bare its contradictions.ft.

. As recently as 1991. Science and Technology Fellow.brookings. that relationship has grown increasingly frail. Since the September 11 attacks. Saudi Arabia may have depended on the nuclear umbrella of the United States to deter the possible use of chemical or biological weapons against targets in Saudi Arabia by Saddam Hussein. In either case. deputy director of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. either by entering into an alliance with some other existing nuclear power or by acquiring its own nuclear capability. Foreign Policy Studies @ Brookings.ASU 2011 Steven Murray 20 Saudi DA ***Impacts*** 2NC Proliferation Loss of relations with the US leads to Saudi prolif Feldman 2003 (Yana. of course. Israel is believed to possess nuclear weapons while it is strongly suspected that the Iranian nuclear programme has been developed to create the option to develop nuclear weapons.htm ) Why would Riyadh want nukes now? Because of a potentially dangerous confluence of events. the Saudis fear a nuclear-armed Iran could have designs on Saudi Arabia. China would play a crucial role. R. Senior research analyst at FirstWatch International. dissidents revealed the existence of a covert Iranian uranium-enrichment program. it is not beyond the realm of possibility. he not only raised hackles in Riyadh. Collapse of US alliance causes Saudi Prolif Luft and Korin 2004 (Gal Luft and Anne Korin.sipri.org/sinosaudi. the possibility that Saudi Arabia would consider a nuclear weapons option for the future remains a concern for some analysts. James Woolsey. given their considerable level of wealth. Saudi Arabia could break its military dependence on the U. though. Reacting to that development. When a RAND analyst last summer told the Defense Policy Board. has been the kingdom's relationship with the United States.iags. Holding back the Saudi nuclear program. Although talk of a nucleararmed Saudi Arabia may. forcing analysts to drastically revise down their estimates of how long it might take Iran to obtain nuclear weapons. Patrick Clawson. recently wrote that "Saudi Arabia is the state most likely to proliferate in response to an Iranian nuclear threat" because.” http://www. The Kingdom is situated between two powerful regional rivals – Israel and Iran. former CIA director and White House confidant. by protecting Saudi Arabia during the 1991 Gulf war—and by informal guarantees given to Saudi leaders by American officials that it will protect the monarchy from outside threats. links to nations that have known nuclear programmes. Although Saudi Arabia appears to be a low proliferation threat at this stage. Given the weakness of their own military. If the Saudis were to begin worrying seriously about a future American seizure of their oil fields. he argued. Though America has never signed a formal treaty with Riyadh. Loss of alliance  Nukes Levi 2003 (Michael. “Would the Saudis Go Nuclear?. The continued deterioration of security ties with the United States might well provide an incentive to secure a viable nuclear alternative. After all. the prime mover. The rapidly progressing nuclear program of traditional rival Iran has no doubt spooked the Saudi leadership. “Country Profile 8: Saudi Arabia” Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.htm) There are some particularly alarming scenarios to consider here. the most dangerous opponent" in the Middle East. then chaired by Richard Perle. a Sunni monarchy that is home to a large number of oppressed Shia. http://www. Commentary Magazine. http://www. seem farfetched. one option would be to acquire nuclear weapons. that Saudi Arabia was "the kernel of evil. Tehran has for years allegedly supported Shia terrorist groups operating in Saudi Arabia and was blamed by many analysts for the 1996 Khobar Towers bombing.S. he reflected the opinion of many close to the Bush administration. since World War II the United States has made clear by its actions—most notably. they might well seek ways to deter it.edu/views/articles/fellows/levi20030602. at this juncture. Last fall.html) The strategic situation of Saudi Arabia is such that the Kingdom might consider a nuclear alliance with a friendly nuclear power or its own nuclear deterrent an attractive option.org/contents/expcon/cnsc1sau. Institute for Analysis of Global Security.

Instead. the United States should be careful to maintain Saudi Arabia's confidence even as the two nations inevitably drift apart." The recent decision by Washington to pull most of its forces out of Saudi Arabia.S. the Saudi royal family. . The United States might even extend an explicit security guarantee to the Saudis. referring to "the barbarics [sic]. Such a formal deal could raise anti-American sentiment in the desert kingdom. That's a scary prospect.ASU 2011 Steven Murray 21 Saudi DA was even more emphatic in a speech last November.S. the kind of formal treaty it gave Europe to keep it non-nuclear during the cold war-and the kind of formal arrangement Washington and Riyadh have never signed before. particularly when you consider the possibility of Islamists overthrowing the monarchy. This recent decline in U. reducing its deployment from 5. Suddenly removing the U. security blanket just as regional rivalries are intensifying could push the Saudis into the nuclear club. But the alternative might be worse.000 to 400 personnel and moving its operations to Qatar. has added facts on the ground to the rhetorical barrage.-Saudi relations can hardly make the Saudi royal family feel secure.

the proliferation challenge in the Middle East is uniquely daunting. . and with other dominos such as Turkey and Syria poised to fall. Perhaps most worrisome is that the United States is left. Credibility Gap in the Middle East” The Washington Quarterly 28.ASU 2011 Steven Murray 22 Saudi DA Saudi Prolif Dominoes Saudi Prolif Snowballs McInnis 2005 (Kathleen J. at present. coordinator of the Project on Nuclear Issues and a research associate at CSIS. Therein lies the crux of the problem: If Saudi Arabia were to follow Iran’s proliferation route. that would again change the calculations of every other state in the region in a cumulative and potentially dangerous manner. with few good options in the region to thwart this dangerous trajectory.S.3 (2005) 169-186.) The emergence of a nuclear Iran would undoubtedly send shockwaves through the region that could result in a nuclear domino effect. Continuing with Egypt. Muse. “Extended Deterrence: The U.

com/article/SB121305642257659301.html) Saudi Arabia's interest in nuclear technology can only be explained by the dangerous politics of the Middle East. D-MA chairman of the Select Committee on Energy Independence and Global Warming.” Wall Street Journal/ http://online. Saudi Arabia is warning Iran that two can play the nuclear game. . to generate energy. An Iranian nuclear weapon would radically alter the region's balance of power. By signing this agreement with the U." Mr.wsj. and could prove to be the match that lights the tinderbox. "[Iran is] already sitting on an awful lot of oil and gas. Cheney got it right about Iran. Saudi Arabia. buying arms and waging war by proxy in Lebanon and Iraq. a champion and kingpin of the Sunni Arab world.S. Markey 2008 (Edward J. importing expensive and dangerous nuclear power makes no economic sense.ASU 2011 Steven Murray 23 Saudi DA A/T: Deterrence Saudi prolif won’t be peaceful Rep. is deeply threatened by the rise of Shiite-ruled Iran. For a country with so much oil. as well. gas and solar potential. Vice President Dick Cheney said. The two countries watch each other warily over the waters of the Persian Gulf.. “Why Is Bush Helping Saudi Arabia Build Nukes?. No one can figure why they need nuclear. But a potential Saudi nuclear program is just as suspicious. In 2004.

SRM) Skeptics of the Saudi nuclear threat. He joined INSS after serving at Israel's National Security Council. while Saudi Arabia has vast cash reserves but lacks the relevant infrastructures and skilled manpower. but lacks cash. but it’s possible in the future Front Page 2011 ("Saudis up the nuclear ante"http://frontpagemag. and that factoid hasn’t slowed down the Islamist state’s nuclear weapons pursuit. Not proliferating now because of US-relations concerns Guzansky July 1st.ASU 2011 Steven Murray 24 Saudi DA A/T: Saudi Prolif Inevitable Saudis not proliferating now. LEXIS. . these two Sunni nations located on either side of Shia Iran have overlapping interests: Pakistan has knowledge and skilled manpower. The two might seek to balance Iran's power by increasing co-operation. Saudi Arabia. has no alternative but to rely on the American defence umbrella. He joined INSS after serving at Israel's National Security Council. they also note that the Saudis are a signatory to the Non-Proliferation Treaty. 2011 (Yoel Guzansky is a research fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies at Tel Aviv University. SRM) Signalling that it is prepared to go down this road may be an effective way of testing the US by pressuring the administration to demonstrate more strongly its commitment to defend the kingdom.com/2011/07/22/saudis-up-the-nuclear-ante/. Saudis won't prolif now because of faith in US security umbrella. it may prefer to engage in a series of even contradictory steps to ensure its security. although so is Iran. LEXIS. However. 2011 (Yoel Guzansky is a research fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies at Tel Aviv University. especially after ``abandoning'' a longstanding regional ally like Mubarak. it is a safe bet that Saudi Arabia will invest in security arrangements that help guarantee the continuity of the regime. If in Riyadh's view its essential security interests are threatened. despite the political risks primarily to their already strained relations with the US and the fact that doing so would contradict Saudi international commitments and its own public position favouring a nuclear-free Middle East. "TEHRAN TESTS SAUDIS' NERVE ON NUKES". Given its enormous wealth and military weakness. "TEHRAN TESTS SAUDIS' NERVE ON NUKES". at least for now. Moreover. continued aggravation in the Arab spring pushes them past the tipping point Guzansky July 1st. however. SRM) In terms of nuclear development. point to the fact that these nuclear agreements only allow for the transfer of knowledge regarding the peaceful uses of nuclear energy. it would be contrary to Saudi practice to put all its eggs in one basket.

. Zardari has praised Iran as both a “natural ally” and “important friend” of Pakistan in the region. Pakistan’s president. the Pakistanis may prove to be less of a reliable option for the Saudis.ASU 2011 Steven Murray 25 Saudi DA A/T: Pakistan Gives the Bomb Pakistan won't give Saudis the bomb – ties with Iran Front Page 2011 ("Saudis up the nuclear ante"http://frontpagemag. a recent report surfaced that Saudi Arabia — long suspected of contributing to Pakistan’s nuclear program — has already arranged for the use of two Pakistani nuclear bombs or guided missile warheads. Asif Ali Zardari . has twice in the last month made visits to Tehran to meet with Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. In both instances. Despite last minute appeals from Saudi Arabia.com/2011/07/22/saudis-up-the-nuclear-ante/. However. given Pakistan’s recent dalliance with the Islamist Republic. SRM) To that end.

"3 One such challenge is the prospect of multiple nuclear powers emerging in an already volatile Middle East. Recent leaks to the media of unconfirmed reports of Saudi-Pakistani nuclear cooperation.S. perhaps one involving military posturing by Iran against the Gulf states. Weapons Proliferation and War in the Greater Middle East: Strategic Contest p. More broadly. coupled with growing anti-U. and particularly the United States. Eithier way. however. Ultimately. including the nuclear deterrent. must avoid steps that would completely rupture American-Saudi security ties: both Washington and Riyadh share the grand strategic interest of seeing that no one power ever grows to dominate the Gulf. . The global community would be forced to see that despite the best of intentions and efforts. The outcome of this scenario depends in part on the capacity and credibility of U. decide that U. but rather as a result of the fragility of U. strategic capabilities. in fact.S. The United States. creating a uniquely dangerous situation. work toward this end. have a strikingly different character. the “nuclear genie” will not be put back into its bottle The West and the United States will have to face the fact that weapons of mass destruction and ballistic missiles will be an ever-present reality of the post-11 September world. "Iranian nuclear capabilities would change the perceptions of the military balance in the region and could pose serious challenges to the [United States] in terms of deterrence and defense. public awareness of a Saudi nuclear deterrent will put the West.) The easing of a Saudi nuclear weapons program’s opacity could occur gradually over time – after it is firmly established and protected from potential preventive or preemptive strikes – behind the scenes in diplomatic exchanges and in subtle public references.ASU 2011 Steven Murray 26 Saudi DA A/T: Iran Prolif = Saudi Prolif inevitable Even if Iran gets nukes. in an awkward position.S. Washington in the aftermath of revelations of a Saudi nuclear deterrent would be under strong domestic and international pressure to take measures to show its displeasure with Riyadh.S. We control the internal link to prolif. A rising tide of Islamic fundamentalism. Key players won’t seek nukes unless they lose trust the US Alliance McInnis 2005 (Kathleen j. The Saudis would want to plant in the minds of potential rivals the suggestion that Riyadh is not to be diplomatically and militarily intimidated or coerced. prudent statecraft would assume that deterrence in practice is unlikely to be as effective as envisioned in theory. researcher @ csis “extended deterrence: the us credibility gap in the middle east” Washington quarterly 28:3 acc proj muse) U. The United States needs to recognize that Saudi Arabia will continue to be a major player in the regional competition for power in the greater Middle East region.S. they may be tempted to acquire their own nuclear weapons. A Saudi nuclear deterrent could more blatantly be revealed in the midst of a future Gulf military crisis. the recognition of a Saudi nuclear deterrent would be a major blow against international proliferation regimes. not due to a lack of physical capability or presence in the region. relations with its allies in the region. Despite the arguments from some quarters that the proliferation of nuclear weapons will enhance international security by bolstering deterrence and lessening the chances for inter-state war. Saudi prolif would kill this and result in rapid global spillover Russell 2005 (Richard l. 118 google books. more akin to hesitant engagement than to Washington's well-established partnerships in Asia. relationships in the Middle East. As thenUnder Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security John Bolton recently stated.S. such as Saudi Arabia and Egypt. A U. if key "nuclear dominos" in the region. however. The United States would lose some prestige in light of a security partner choosing a policy course in direct opposition to the American policy to contain and stem the international proliferation of ballistic missiles and weapons of mass destruction. extended deterrent policy in the Middle East would lack credibility. sentiment. security guarantees are insufficient. US anti-prolif credibility would hold. has strained these tenuous relations.

A military conflict between Israel and Iran will immediately evolve into a religious one. Turn . Nuclear weapons are the ultimate weapons of self-defense -. http://electronicintifada. And yet we're the only one that's ever pulled the trigger. Of course. Israel possesses a nuclear arsenal. Its involvement in a war with Iran . 2007. and the ruthlessness to use it. a nuclear Iran may be a more dangerous Iran. taking account of the elephant in the room puts a very different perspective on the impact of a nuclear-armed Iran. Iranian nuclearization doesn’t cause war and prevents Israeli strikes Morrison 2009 (David Morrison. Judging by the increasingly massive acquisitions of the residential housing for the Israeli citizens. Indeed as Thomas P. The significance of Iran acquiring nuclear weapons is not that Iran would become a threat to Israel and the US.a state that possesses nuclear weapons doesn't get attacked by other states. secretary of the Council of defense ministers of the Community of independant states (CIS). chief of the Military cooperation department at the Russian federation’s Ministry of defense and Joint chief of staff of the Russian armies. October 2. However. 29 June 2009. “Why does Iran Want Nuclear Weapons?”. Likewise. the U. especially in Russia and Ukraine.ASU 2011 Steven Murray 27 Saudi DA Iran Prolif Good Turn . however. Forecasts of the territorial distribution of the fighting. Professor of International Relations and Political Philosophy at the University of Puget Sound (Seth. Ivashov 2007 (General Leonid Ivashov vice-president of the Academy on geopolitical affairs.php?context=va&aid=5309) What might cause the force major event of the required scale? Everything seems to indicate that Israel will be sacrificed. “The elephant in the room: Israel's nuclear weapons” The Electronic Intifada. However. The statehoods of Israel and Iran are based on the countries' official religions. for fear of overwhelming retaliation. If Iran's main motivation is defense. He was the chief of the department for General affairs in the Soviet Union’s ministry of Defense. proliferating may in fact stabilize the regional situation. http://www. as a state not fearful for its continued existence can be a more rational and well-behaved state.net/v2/article10621. Barnett notes: if history is any guide. “Iran: the Threat of a Nuclear War” Global Research April 9. especially if you're skeptical about the ability of the US to develop an effective deterrent relationship with a regional power like Iran (as I am). this would make a global bloodbath inevitable. a conflict between Judaism and Islam. However.especially in a nuclear war . the . it is unimaginable that Iran would attack the US. both the United States and Israel are looking at the first real chance for a durable regional security architecture to emerge (now that you should expect a nuclear Saudi Arabia and Turkey to show up at the negotiating table. All of the active forces of most of the countries of the world would end up fighting. if Iran can't be stopped and if Iran's primary motivation is defense. read your history: With the exceptions of our allies in Britain and France. Yes. that is more than adequate to deter Iran from making a nuclear strike on the country.so Iran won't do it.shtml) Rulers of Iran don't want their cities devastated and they know that if Iran were to make a nuclear strike on Israel. but that Israel and the US would no longer contemplate attacking Iran. it is absolutely certain that Israel would retaliate by making multiple nuclear strikes on Iran and raze many Iranian cities to the ground -. with almost no room for neutrality left. or US interests abroad. The impact is global war.Israel A. B. would make the case for it acquiring them like nothing else.globalresearch. it is hard to imagine a quiet heaven where one might hide from the coming doom.is bound to trigger a global catastrophe.ca/index.com/2009/10/why-does-iran-want-nuclear-weapons.S. a lot of people already have an idea of what the future holds. the deterrence question lessens. One thing is certain: attacking Iran. has looked down upon every rising power to ever get the bomb as constituting a loose canon capable of all manner of nefarious acts and strategic stupidity.and it can be guaranteed that it would then make a supreme effort to acquire them. M. the hotheads on all sides seem desperate to freak out over this prospect.blogspot. It would then be abundantly clear that Iran could not protect itself by other means -. http://securitydilemmas. ostensibly to prevent it from acquiring nuclear weapons. again. too). Due to the presence of numerous Jewish and Muslim populations in the developed countries.Iran Prolif is key to middle east stability Weinberger 2009. but. especially as Israel will likely be able to create regional deterrence. political officer for the Ireland Palestine Solidarity Campaign.html) The good news. is that Iran proliferating may not be such a problem.

.ASU 2011 Steven Murray 28 Saudi DA quantities and the efficiency of the armaments involved. the profound character of the underlying roots of the conflict and the severity of the religious strife all leave no doubt that this clash will be in all respects much more nightmarish than WWII.

When nuclear pollution infects the whole planet.eg/2004/705/op5. Furthermore. If one looks at the history of Pakistan's nuclear program there immediately arises the issue of Pakistan's widely-reported assistance to North Korea. It would also speed up the arms race and develop the awareness that a different type of world order is imperative if humankind is to survive.html) Obviously. from which no one will emerge victorious.ahram.” http://weekly.com/atimes/Middle_East/EK07Ak01.ASU 2011 Steven Murray 29 Saudi DA Saudi Prolif  Terrorism Saudi prolif causes Nuclear Terrorism Blank 2003 (Stephen.org.htm) What would be the consequences of a nuclear attack by terrorists? Even if it fails. .atimes. Thus. This would lead to a third world war. all of which could occur in relatively simultaneous fashion and which would all involve the linked threats of either terrorists with access to nuclear weapons or states possessing those weapons which extend their protection and deterrence to those terrorists. tensions between civilisations and religions would rise and ethnic conflicts would proliferate. police measures would be stepped up at the expense of human rights. Unlike a conventional war which ends when one side triumphs over another. Societies would close in on themselves. “Saudi Arabia's nuclear gambit” Asia Times http://www. it would further exacerbate the negative features of the new and frightening world in which we are now living. Adding Saudi Arabia to this chain of proliferators only extends the process of secondary or tertiary proliferation by which new nuclear powers assist other nuclear "wannabes" to reach that state. the threat expressed by the US of being at the crossroads of radicalism and technology becomes that much more real Extinction Sid Ahmed 2004 (Mohamed. Al-Ahram Political Analyst. we will all be losers. that kind of transformation of the proliferation situation raises the possibility of several more crises in different regions of the world. there are still more considerations. this war will be without winners and losers. Éxtinction!. which at the same time is apparently proliferating missiles all over the Middle East. But the still more critical scenario is if the attack succeeds.

Arleigh Burke Chair in Strategy at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and is Co-Director of the Center's Middle East Program. Arleigh Burke Chair in Strategy at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and is CoDirector of the Center's Middle East Program. Fifteen of the 19 hijackers who destroyed the World Trade Center. Saudi cooperation is crucial in the war against terrorism in general and against terrorism financing in particular. Instructed by their Muslim faith to donate 2. Saudi Arabia may have been slow to recognize how serious this threat is.S. LEXIS) The agreement to go after the two branches was reached while Treasury Secretary Paul O’Neill was in Saudi Arabia last week and is meant to demonstrate growing U. and that the US needs Saudi cooperation in reducing the flow of money to terrorists and their ability to manipulate Islamic causes.Saudi Relations solves terrorism Cordesman 2004 (Anthony.Terrorism US.5% of their net worth each year. 11.org/Newsletters2004/SAF_Item_Of_Interest_2004_02_01. the oil-rich Saudis give millions of dollars to religion-based charities that operate throughout the world. but since the terrorist attacks in Saudi Arabia in May 2003. it has become clear that it is as real for Saudis as it is for Americans. the alleged mastermind of the terrorist attacks.-Saudi cooperation against terrorism before Vice President Cheney’s scheduled arrival here on Sturday. as is Osama bin Laden. Furthermore. and economic forces are at work where this cooperation will have to go on for years – if not decades – after Bin Laden and Al Qaida have ceased to be a threat.-Saudi relations have been severely strained since Sept.S. both in terms of internal and regional threats. U. damaged the Pentagon and crashed a jetliner in Pennsylvania were natives of Saudi Arabia. it is clear that political.htm) Both the US and Saudi Arabia now face a common threat from terrorism. He is also a military analyst for ABC and a Professor of National Security Studies at Georgetown “Ten Reasons for Reforging the US and Saudi Relationship” Saudi American Forum. He is also a military analyst for ABC and a Professor of National Security Studies at Georgetown http://www. Relations solve terrorism USA Today 2002 (Barbara slavin. that Saudi Arabia needs US assistance in modernizing many aspects of its internal security operations. . It is also clear that dealing with terrorism requires close cooperation between the two countries. social.ASU 2011 Steven Murray 30 Saudi DA Impact .saudi-american forum. and both governments are eager to prove that their 50-year-old alliance remains strong.

such policies led to a 'hegemony of the dollar" that gave the U. Everyone accepts dollars because dollars can buy oil. the results could be absolutely devastating to the global economy and to our own. The recycling of petrodollars is the price the U. To secure dollars. Nevertheless.S.S.S.ASU 2011 Steven Murray 31 Saudi DA Impact – Dollar Heg Relations key to Petro Dollar and Global Economy Freeman 2004 (Chas. tolerance of the oilexporting cartel since 1973. Causality may well flow from key currency status to power and prestige and in the opposite direction as well. p. have moved to eliminate the dollar as the unit of account for the oil trade. with the collapse of the Bretton Woods system in 1971 the International Monitary Fund's Standard Drawing Rights (unit of account) was certainly an available alternative to the dollar. and that is the part of this special relationship has been the defense of the dollar by the Saudis. Niall Ferguson[9] notes that one pillar of American dominance can be found in the way successive U. other members. is the demonstration of the end of the special relationship with Saudi Arabia. produces dollars and the rest of the world produces things that dollars can buy. The reason the Saudis defended the dollar on the two previous occasions was not economic analysis but political affinity for the United States. and to pay for it. and this is not a minor. Quoting several noted authorities. they compete in exports to capture needed dollars to service dollar-denominated foreign debts and to accumulate dollar reserves to sustain the exchange value of their domestic currencies…. most notably oil.asp Political power and prestige. saying there is a very substantial danger within the next five years of some sort of dollar collapse. lexis) The second matter. government had access to a "gold mine of paper" and could therefore collect a subsidy form foreigners in the form of seignorage (the profits that flow to those who mint or print a depreciating currency). Petro Dollar key to Hege Looney 2004. The web contains many more radical interactions of the dollar's role.S.navy.[10] America's coercive power in the world is based as much on the dollar's status as the global reserve currency as on U.S." In David Calleo's words. (Robert E. balance of trade and balance of payments. Department of National Security Affairs at the Naval Postgraduate School. will they play that role? And this is a large issue with people like Paul Volcker. The world's interlinked economies no longer trade to capture a comparative advantage. Middle East Policy Council President. Iran in particular. but it's the only world currency. This phenomenon is known as dollar hegemony. “From Petrodollars to Petroeuros: Are the Dollar's Days as an International Reserve Currency Drawing to an End?” Middle East Policy No. and Associate Chairman of Instruction. The real question is: if this situation is so intolerable and unfair. are denominated in dollars. Question if that affinity is no longer there. in discussions of the historical decline of great powers. Were this to occur in the current context of massive budget. has extracted from oil-producing countries for U. 11.[8] On a broader scale.S.nps. U. quoting Charles de Gaulle.S. they must sell their goods to the U. 1 Vol. The dollar is way overpriced. the U. Federal News Service. Usually something along the following lines: World trade is now a game in which the U.S. Everyone needs oil. under terms acceptable to the people who rule America. the end of the discounts and the end of the Saudi emphasis on primacy in the American market signals -. p. why hasn't the world ganged up on the United States and changed the system? Why haven't countries like Libya and Iran required something like euros or gold dinars in payment for oil? After all. military muscle. The benefits of "power and prestige" are nebulous. they do contain some elements of truth. which is created by the geopolitically constructed peculiarity that critical commodities. deficits for the United States. Twice within OPEC. There are tangible benefits that accrue to the country whose currency is a reserve currency.[11] While it is tempting to dismiss passages of this sort as uninformed rants. they must have dollars. and far more grave in many ways..S." As Robert Gilpin notes. along with such non-economic factors as the loss of colonies and military power. "extravagant privileges.[12] . government sought to take advantage of the dollar's role as a key currency. money is in effect backed by the oil reserves of every other nation. which we will get into. 26 http://www.mil/si/nov03/middleEast. minor matter.ccc. Under the current dollars-only arrangement. the loss of key currency status and the loss of international creditor status have sometimes been associated. professor of National Security Affairs.because there's another issue you didn't mention. he notes that [the role of the dollar] enabled the United States to be "far less restrained…than all other states by normal fiscal and foreign exchange constraints when it came to funding whatever foreign or strategic policies it decided to implement.

ASU 2011 Steven Murray 32 Saudi DA Heg Solves Nuclear War Khalizad. Analyst at the RAND. free markets. First. Fellow Emeritus at the Alpha Foundation's Institute for Advanced Study. The resulting great Armageddon will destroy civilization as we know it. and the rule of law. enabling the United States and the world to avoid another global cold or hot war and all the attendant dangers. the mutual treaties involved in such scenarios will quickly draw other nations into the conflict. to the point where the arsenals of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) now possessed by some 25 nations. The real legacy of the MAD concept is this side of the MAD coin that is almost never discussed.whose long-range nuclear missiles (some) can reach the United States -. threats of regional hegemony by renegade states.S. rapid escalation to full WMD exchange occurs. Strategic nuclear studies have shown for decades that. but because a world in which the United States exercises leadership would have tremendous advantages. and perhaps most of the biosphere. Today. CEO of CTEC Inc. a great percent of the WMD arsenals that will be unleashed. In addition to immediate responses. Spring) Such a vision is desirable not as an end in itself. at least for many decades. "The Unnecessary Energy Crisis: How to Solve It Quickly". Prior to the final economic collapse.S. Washington Quarterly. are already on site within the United States itself {[8]}. 1995 (Zalmay. .htm ) History bears out that desperate nations take desperate actions. As the studies showed. the global environment would be more open and more receptive to American values -. including U.democracy.. such a world would have a better chance of dealing cooperatively with the world's major problems.com/EnergyCrisisBearden. once a few nukes are launched. the stress on nations will have increased the intensity and number of their conflicts. including a global nuclear exchange. escalating it significantly. forces there. Finally. adversaries and potential adversaries are then compelled to launch on perception of preparations by one's adversary. leadership would help preclude the rise of another hostile global rival. are almost certain to be released. As an example. http://www. Second. 6/24/2K. such as nuclear proliferation.. under such extreme stress conditions. U. Retired US Army Lieutenant Colonel and director of the Association of Distinguished American Scientists. and low-level conflicts. in a spasmodic suicidal response. Or suppose a desperate China -.seaspower. suppose a starving North Korea {[7]} launches nuclear weapons upon Japan and South Korea.attacks Taiwan. the only chance a nation has to survive at all is to launch immediate full-bore pre-emptive strikes and try to take out its perceived foes as rapidly and massively as possible. Without effective defense. Economic collapse leads to nuclear extinction Bearden 2000 (Thomas E.

A different government in Saudi Arabia might take a very different stance. A decline in relations means Saudi Arabia switches to the Euro.theeuro) 'At various points in time since the early 1970s. First. oil producers have discussed this.com/p/articles/mi_qa5400/is_200301/ai_n21341616/pg_6) The Saudis get little credit in American public opinion for their energy policies. thus shielding the United States from the effects of dollar fluctuation on energy prices? All these issues would be on the table if relations broke down or if a new government took power in Saudi Arabia. is to insist that oil continues to be priced in dollars. which is an advantage no other country has. that would deal a very heavy blow to the American economy. Generally. They did not publicize their increased production either after 9/11 or in the lead-up to the recent war.' said Yarjani. Last year the former US Ambassador to Saudi Arabia told a committee of the US Congress: 'One of the major things the Saudis have historically done. With the emergence of other currencies and with strains in the relationship. the Saudi government pursues policies that aim at stability in price and supply. 'The Saudis are holding the line on oil prices in Opec and should they. told CNN. they almost always take initiatives quietly. This may be so. That was an elliptical reference to the overwhelming influence of Saudi Arabia.' Youssef Ibrahim.' Relations key to petro dollar Chanin and Gause 2003 (Clifford and Gregory. That was an elliptical reference to the overwhelming influence of Saudi Arabia. 'The Saudis are holding the line on oil prices in Opec and should they. The markets took immediate notice. especially in periods when the dollar has been weak. in part out of friendship with the United States.' said Yarjani. whose government is the staunchest ally of the US within Opec. which is an advantage no other country has. This emphasis corresponds with the stated policy goals of successive American administrations. the US Treasury can print money and buy oil. Middle East Policy “U. as there have been in the past.S.-SAUDI RELATIONS: BUMP IN THE ROAD OR END OF THE ROAD?” http://findarticles. the US Treasury can print money and buy oil. in part out of friendship with the United States. people in Saudi Arabia who raise the question of why they should be so kind to the United States. Last year the former US Ambassador to Saudi Arabia told a committee of the US Congress: 'One of the major things the Saudis have historically done. oil producers have discussed this. I wonder whether there will not again be. but would it have to sell as much? Would it carry the costs of maintaining excess production capacity. of the influential US Council on Foreign Relations. which tanks the economy. there is a widespread cynicism in the United States about Saudi oil policy. Second. that would deal a very heavy blow to the American economy. especially in periods when the dollar has been weak. go along with the rest of the Opec people in demanding that oil be priced in euros. is to insist that oil continues to be priced in dollars. Therefore.' . depending on the strategic and trade alliances certain members have with particular trade blocs. With the emergence of other currencies and with strains in the relationship. Opinions have tended to be wide-ranging. but the question remains whether the Saudis define their interests in ways compatible with American interests. dollars. so as to be able to bring oil immediately to the market in times of supply disruption? Would it continue to denominate oil transactions in U.co. Islam 03 (faisal “when will we buy oil in euros?” the observer 2/23 lexis) At various points in time since the early 1970s. for example. told CNN.ASU 2011 Steven Murray 33 Saudi DA Ext: Relz key to dollar heg Relations key to petro dollar Islam 2003 (Faisal “When will we buy oil in euros?” The Observer http://www.S. people in Saudi Arabia who raise the question of why they should be so kind to the United States. which is seen as serving Saudi interests.guardian. whose government is the staunchest ally of the US within Opec. depending on the strategic and trade alliances certain members have with particular trade blocs. as there have been in the past. go along with the rest of the Opec people in demanding that oil be priced in euros.' Youssef Ibrahim. Opinions have tended to be wide-ranging. for example. but there was very little recognition outside of specialist circles. Therefore.uk/business/2003/feb/23/oilandpetrol. I wonder whether there will not again be. It would certainly have to sell oil. of the influential US Council on Foreign Relations.

causes oil market instability that threatens economic recovery Herald. "For Obama. But where the United States and the Saudis split is over how to prevent Iran from gaining traction. still can rock global markets and slow economic recovery in the United States and around the world. While U. 2011 (International Herald Tribune. the Saudis believe that political reforms would only open the door to greater instability. home to the world's largest petroleum reserves.'' said Robert Malley. SRM) ''In terms of concrete American national security interests. . the United States has long viewed Saudi Arabia as a last bulwark against an ascendant Iran in a crucial region. Saudi Arabia is the second largest foreign supplier of oil to the United States. officials say the Saudi and Bahraini governments can head off trouble by making political reforms. Region in Revolt" LEXIS. and it does not want Tehran stepping in to back Shiites in Bahrain or Saudi Arabia. Bahrain is Mideast's hottest spot. the Middle East and North Africa program director with the International Crisis Group. Even if the United States could wean itself from dependency on Saudi oil. the kingdom. Bahrain-Saudi Arabia is the place. Beyond that.ASU 2011 Steven Murray 34 Saudi DA EXT – Oil Security Pushing for political reform threatens the US-Saudi alliance .S. 3-19. and Bahrain is home to the U.S. Navy's Fifth Fleet.

it is highly likely that the U.S.ASU 2011 Steven Murray 35 Saudi DA Impact – Regional Power Projection Saudi Relations are key to regional power projection Telhami and Hill 2002 (Shibley. military will retain a large presence in the region. Qatar. any of the smaller members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (which comprises Bahrain. or will at least have them assume a lower profile. It is certainly possible that the United States will reduce the number of troops it keeps in Saudi Arabia. since Saudi approval and cooperation will remain essential to any continued American military presence. Saudi Arabia. but it is hard to imagine that. or prohibit ground troops from launching operations from Saudi soil in the case of a war with Iraq.foreignaffairs. Fiona Does Saudi Arabia Still Matter? Differing Perspectives on the Kingdom and Its Oil Foreign Affairs. Oman. . Kuwait. with the exception of Kuwait.S. In addition. options would be significantly handicapped if Saudi Arabia were to deny overflight rights to U.org/20021101faresponse10002/shibley-telhami-fiona-hill/does-saudi-arabia-still-matterdiffering-perspectives-on-the-kingdom-and-its-oil. military aircraft. Washington must therefore continue to place high priority on sustaining favorable relations with Riyadh.S. and the United Arab Emirates) could afford to host large American bases without Saudi acquiescence. U.html) Given America's ongoing security interest in the Persian Gulf. November/December 2002 http://www.

) Israeli nukes aimed at the Russian heartland seriously complicate disarmament and arms control negotiations and. complicity) is not reversed soon .for whatever reason . In the words of Mark Gaffney.-Saudi bilateral relationship would have serious consequences for Saudi security and peace in the Middle East.org/articles/2002/03/00_steinbach_israeli-wmd. It could potentially render the U. or should any Arab nation fire missiles against Israel." Relations Key to regional stability Russel 2002 (James A.wagingpeace. leading to activities that would promote mutual confidence and collective security.-Saudi operational cooperation can be established at PSAB." said Robert Kaplan. if not for all out nuclear war. “Deconstructing the US-Saudi Partnership?” Strategic Insights Insights v. While regional military integration among friendly coalition partners may today seem a remote scenario. a nuclear escalation..S.. and dramatically lowers the threshold for their actual use. Conclusion Fundamentally altering the U.S.S. counterparts in this facility to coordinate joint and combined air defense efforts across the theater. September. ". Israel's current President said "The nuclear issue is gaining momentum (and the) next war will not be conventional. EBSCO. and even the threat of nuclear war. for all of its shortcomings.S. Perhaps officers from other Gulf Cooperation Council militaries could join together with Saudi and U. http://www.npa. Iran is a seemingly implacable American foe that supports such armed groups as Hezbollah and is widely believed to be pursuing a nuclear weapon."(42) Russia and before it the Soviet Union has long been a major (if not the major) target of Israeli nukes. "The unpleasant reality is that our interests depend on the continued existence of a medieval monarchy in Saudi Arabia. It is widely reported that the principal purpose of Jonathan Pollard's spying for Israel was to furnish satellite images of Soviet targets and other super sensitive data relating to U.S..-trained and equipped Saudi military unable to defend the Kingdom and would deny the United States the opportunity to continue working with the dominant regional power to achieve collective defense and regional military integration.ASU 2011 Steven Murray 36 Saudi DA Impact – Middle East Stability Saudi Influence key to US middle east strategy American Spectator 2011 ("Achieving the Impossible". as the Iraqis did. at the very least. If U. the scenario is at least plausible if Saudi Arabia and the United States lead the way. 1 i7.S.S. And these regional conflicts escalate to a global nuclear war Steinbach 2002 (John Steinbach in March 2002 (Source: Nuclear Age Peace Foundation http://www. if the familar pattern(Israel refining its weapons of mass destruction with U. Any serious suggestions that the 50-year partnership needs to be fundamentally altered should carefully consider these costs. (43) (Since launching its own satellite in 1988.mil/si/sept02/middleEast2. is an American ally that cooperates against groups like al-Qaida and has ensured the free flow of Middle Eastern oil to the West. and Saudi air forces might in the future operate together using a coalition operations space within the combined air operations center at Prince Sultan Air Base. Regional security integration will surely never flourish without positive U. In the zero-sum game that is the modern Mideast. would now be a strong probability.navy.the deepening Middle East conflict could trigger a world conflagration. it could provide a model that could be replicated in other Gulf States.S." (44) .ccc. Seymour Hersh warns..htm) Meanwhile. the existence of an arsenal of mass destruction in such an unstable region in turn has serious implications for future arms control and disarmament negotiations. for example--would represent a serious setback for both Riyadh and Washington. "Our grand strategy for the Middle East comes down to doing what we can to ensure Riyadh's survival and what we can to bring about Tehran's demise. a senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security.S. Israel no longer needs U. once unthinkable except as a last resort. any political victory for Iran--bringing a Shiite government into power in Bahrain.."(41) and Ezar Weissman. Saudi Arabia. nuclear targeting strategy. spy secrets. SRM) The dispute has enormous strategic implications for the United States. the unilateral possession of nuclear weapons by Israel is enormously destabilizing.-Saudi bilateral relations.asp) U. "Should war break out in the Middle East again.

Middle East and energy security. If Washington were to conclude that splitting China would better serve its national interests. specializes in strategy. terrorism. The main bone of contention probably will revolve around China's relations with Saudi Arabia.htm) Optimists claim that the world oil market will be able to accommodate China and that.S. Japan. The Chinese have already supplied the Saudis with intermediate range ballistic missiles.S. The Saudis especially fear that if their citizens again perpetrate a terror attack in the U. home to a quarter of the world's oil. to defend the regime and must diversify their security portfolio.globalpolicy. geopolitics.S. could drive the Saudis to end their reliance on the U. The Saudis hear the voices in the U. And the conflagration . Conflict on such a scale would embroil other countries far and near and -. The good news is that we are still in a position to halt China's slide into total dependency Super Extinction Strait Times 2k (No one gains in war over Taiwan. as the sole guarantor of their regime's security and offer China an expanded role. “Fueling the dragon: China's race into the oil market”. Since 9/11. 2006 (Gal. China Are on Collision Course Over Oil” http://www. lexis) The high-intensity scenario postulates a cross-strait war escalating into a full-scale war between the US and China.org/china.S.S. then a full-scale war becomes unavoidable. Los Angeles Times. to a lesser extent. Beijing has already told the US and Japan privately that it considers any country providing bases and logistics support to any US forces attacking China as belligerent parties open to its retaliation. In the region. denouncing Saudi Arabia as a "kernel of evil" and proposing that the U. the Philippines and.org/security/natres/oil/2004/0202collision. and they played a major role 20 years ago in a Saudi financed Pakistani nuclear effort that may one day leave a nuclear weapon in the hands of a Taliban-type regime in Riyadh or Islamabad.S. in the longer run. instead of conflict.raise the possibility of a nuclear war. this means South Korea. geopolitics.S.. In their search for a new patron. executive director of the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security (IAGS) a Washington based think tank focused on energy security. a deep tension in U. The Saudis have so far preferred to turn down many of the proposals and limit their procurement from China in order to maintain their special relations with the U. The risk of Beijing's emerging as a competitor for influence in the Middle East and a Saudi shift of allegiance are things Washington should consider as it defines its objectives and priorities in the 21st century.horror of horrors -. terrorism. seize and occupy the kingdom's oil fields.S. Without a comprehensive strategy designed to prevent China from becoming an oil consumer on a par with the U.ASU 2011 Steven Murray 37 Saudi DA Impact – China Loss of US relations increases Saudi relations with China Luft.S. But continuous deterioration in Saudi-American relations or.-Saudi relations has provided the Chinese with an opportunity to win the heart of the House of Saud. China's thirst could create mutual desire for stability in the Middle East and thus actually bring Beijing closer to the U.htm) A key component of China's strategy to guarantee access to Persian Gulf oil is the special relations it has cultivated with Saudi Arabia.and perhaps even use military force against it. but to terminate its long-standing commitment to the monarchy . If China were to retaliate. China has offered to sell the Saudis intercontinental ballistic missiles. http://www. there would be no alternative for the U. Since then. The ties with Riyadh go back to the mid-1980s when China sold Saudi Arabia intermediate range ballistic missiles. Singapore. east Asia will be set on fire. the relations have grown closer. The Saudis realize that to forestall such a scenario they can no longer rely solely on the U.iags.. executive director of the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security (IAGS) a Washington based think tank focused on energy security.S. Middle East and energy security. a superpower collision is in the cards. June 25. High-level visits of Chinese leaders to Saudi Arabia culminated in 1999 with President Jiang Zemin's state visit in which he pronounced a "strategic oil partnership" between the two countries. “US. a regime change in the oil kingdom. they might find China the most fitting and willing candidate. War between the US and China Luft 2004 (Gal. specializes in strategy. History shows the opposite: Superpowers find it difficult to coexist while competing over scarce resources.

In south Asia. While the prospect of a nuclear Armaggedon over Taiwan might seem inconceivable. for China puts sovereignty above everything else. There would be no victors in such a war.ASU 2011 Steven Murray 38 Saudi DA may not end there as opportunistic powers elsewhere may try to overturn the existing world order. could enter a new and dangerous phase. If the US had to resort to nuclear weaponry to defeat China long before the latter acquired a similar capability. there were strong pressures from the military to drop it. With the US distracted. Gen Ridgeway said that US was confronted with two choices in Korea -. . Gen Ridgeway said that should that come to pass. He said military leaders considered the use of nuclear weapons mandatory if the country risked dismemberment as a result of foreign intervention. Russia may seek to redefine Europe's political landscape. a personal account of the military and political aspects of the conflict and its implications on future US foreign policy. hostilities between India and Pakistan. commander of the US Eighth Army which fought against the Chinese in the Korean War. The US estimates that China possesses about 20 nuclear warheads that can destroy major American cities. each armed with its own nuclear arsenal. short of using nuclear weapons. The balance of power in the Middle East may be similarly upset by the likes of Iraq. told a gathering at the Woodrow Wilson International Centre for Scholars in Washington that although the government still abided by that principle. A Chinese military officer disclosed recently that Beijing was considering a review of its "non first use" principle regarding nuclear weapons. the US had at the time thought of using nuclear weapons against China to save the US from military defeat. which could have led to the use of nuclear weapons. Major-General Pan Zhangqiang. president of the military-funded Institute for Strategic Studies. we would see the destruction of civilisation. .truce or a broadened war. Will a fullscale Sino-US war lead to a nuclear war? According to General Matthew Ridgeway. there is little hope of winning a war against China 50 years later. it cannot be ruled out entirely. Beijing also seems prepared to go for the nuclear option. In his book The Korean War.

it has abundant reasons for looking east to China both for markets and for military assistance.S. as the sole guarantor of their regime's security and offer China an expanded role. just as China has abundant reasons for looking west to Saudi Arabia for continued access to Middle Eastern oil. a regime change in the oil kingdom. Since then. executive director of the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security. With 11 million men reaching military age annually. however. for example. Unlike the U. Indeed. But continuous deterioration in Saudi-American relations or.S. China has offered to sell the Saudis intercontinental ballistic missiles.S. .org/sinosaudi.iags.ASU 2011 Steven Murray 39 Saudi DA EXT – China Fill-In China has a comparative advantage over the united states for allying with Saudi Arabia Luft and Korin 2004 (Gal Luft and Anne Korin.. in the longer run. which they can deploy to protect the oil resources of any new allies they acquire. or impose freedom and democracy on regimes that view such ideas with skepticism and fear. “fuelling the dragon” http://www. could drive the Saudis to end their reliance on the U. The ties with Riyadh go back to the mid-1980s when China sold Saudi Arabia intermediate range ballistic missiles. Commentary Magazine. an alliance with China would hold other attraction for the Saudis.htm) Even if Saudi Arabia does not pursue nuclear status. Finally. The Saudis have so far preferred to turn down many of the proposals and limit their procurement from China in order to maintain their special relations with the U. Thousands of Chinese soldiers disguised as oil workers.iags. China could easily replicate this elsewhere. Chinese attitudes toward the open societies of the West are markedly similar to those of the Arab despotisms themselves. China will fill the regional security vacuum Luft 2004 (gal. China's ties with Jerusalem have never risen above the level of indifference. the Chinese do not aspire to change the Arab way of life. are used today to guard petroleum facilities in Sudan. And aside from these mutual interests. http://www. is continually castigated by the Arabs for its closeness to Israel.htm ) A key component of China's strategy to guarantee access to Persian Gulf oil is the special relations it has cultivated with Saudi Arabia.org/china. while the U. The Chinese also have at their disposal immense reserves of manpower. High-level visits of Chinese leaders to Saudi Arabia culminated in 1999 with President Jiang Zemin's state visit in which he pronounced a "strategic oil partnership" between the two countries.S. the relations have grown closer. Institute for Analysis of Global Security.

ASU 2011 Steven Murray 40 Saudi DA ***AFF Answers*** .

Saudi officials. 11. its scope of attempted interference has broadened to include the affairs of Arab states from Yemen to Morocco. failed to ease the tensions. Saudi Arabia. Riyadh has often protested but ultimately acquiesced to what it saw as misguided U. The most significant blunder may have been the invasion of Iraq. But American missteps in the region since Sept. recently. "For Obama. Such remarks are based more on wishful thinking than fact. Mubarak was forced from office. an ill-conceived response to the Arab protest movements and an unconscionable refusal to hold Israel accountable for its illegal settlement building have brought this arrangement to an end. harshly criticized Riyadh over its intervention in Bahrain. at times conflicting with American interests. which resulted in enormous loss of life and provided Iran an opening to expand its sphere of influence. requests not to send troops into Bahrain to help crush Shiite-led protests there. For more than 60 years. ''King Abdullah has been clear that Saudi Arabia will never allow Shia rule in Bahrain . Arab officials said.S.ASU 2011 Steven Murray 41 Saudi DA Relations Low Relations at an all time low Herald. deepening a rift with its most important Arab ally. invasion of Iraq in 2003. Relations low now . Saudi leaders sent troops into Manama in March to defend Bahrain's monarchy and quell the unrest that has shaken that country since February. Bahrain is Mideast's hottest spot.-Saudi relationship. As Riyadh fights a cold war with Tehran. Gen. This month the chief of staff of Iran's armed forces. LEXIS. A tense telephone call between Mr. policies. . Obama abandoned President Hosni Mubarak of Egypt in the face of demonstrations. ignored U. 11. Relations between the United States and Saudi Arabia are at their coldest since the U.S. Region in Revolt" LEXIS.S. Iran's leadership has aimed to foment discord while furthering its geopolitical ambitions.S. but Iran's efforts to destabilize its neighbors are tireless.countless reasons Washington Post 2011 (May 16. SRM) The brutal crackdown in Bahrain poses the greatest Middle East democracy dilemma yet for the administration of President Barack Obama.'' an Arab official who was briefed on the talks said. while potentially strengthening the influence of its biggest nemesis. He said King Abdullah's willingness to listen to the United States had ''evaporated'' since Mr. claiming this act would spark massive domestic uprisings.S.never. The backdrop for this change are the rise of Iranian meddling in the region and the counterproductive policies that the United States has pursued here since Sept. SRM) A tectonic shift has occurred in the U. For years. 2011 (International Herald Tribune. "The U. Washington has shown itself in recent months to be an unwilling and unreliable partner against this threat. 3-19. Saudi Arabia has been bound by an unwritten bargain: oil for security. Despite significant pressure from the Obama administration to remain on the sidelines. Obama and King Abdullah on Wednesday. still angry that Mr. Iran. Hasan Firouzabadi.-Saudi split". The emerging political reality is a Saudi-led Arab world facing off against the aggression of Iran and its non-state proxies. As the Saudis recalibrate the partnership. Riyadh intends to pursue a much more assertive foreign policy. Tehran has long funded Hamas and Hezbollah.

" Washington and Riyadh "have a shared interest in seeing that no country or force in the region seeks or tries to achieve dominance." he said. the plan won’t crush relations CNN July 3. We have a shared interest in the pursuit of peace. And that's the basis on which we work with the Saudis." he said. We have a shared interest in a stable supply of energy and in a healthy global economy. SRM) "We did have some scratchy periods with some partners in the region who are wrestling with this and trying to work through their own views on this." . and based on my direct conversations with the leadership of Saudi Arabia about the kinds of common strategic interests that we have that I laid out earlier in the conversation. "But I think this. We have a shared interest in counterterrorism cooperation.com/2011-0703/us/mideast_1_saudi-arabia-saudi-monarchy-washington-and-riyadh?_s=PM:US. 2011 ("Obama adviser discusses 'scratchy' ties with Arab allies" http://articles.ASU 2011 Steven Murray 42 Saudi DA EXT – No Link Other issues swamp democracy assistance. I think that our relationship is in pretty good shape. I again would be less than candid with you if I didn't say that we didn't have some points of friction or disagreements with some of our partners in the region. "We have a very important shared interest in seeing restrictions on weapons of mass destruction proliferation in the region.cnn.

suggest precisely the opposite. officials note. The United States is selling the Saudis $60 billion in arms and other military hardware in a multiyear deal. and about its seeming relentless bid to acquire a successful nuclear program. the alliance remains "rock solid. Concern over Iran will sustain relations Bronson 2006 (Rachel. weapons transaction ever." LEXIS. thereby denting the continued windfall that Iran has been earning from the recent rise in oil prices. SRM) A senior State Department official insisted that on security and energy issues. Saudi Arabia is extremely concerned over the possibility of Iran’s nuclear proliferation. June 14.S. One of the things we’ve seen from the Saudis is a call for a nuclear-free Arabian gulf. while oil is very important. the relationship is also supported by two other very important pillars: Saudi Arabia’s strategic location—where it actually physically sits on the map—has been very important going back to World War II and remains that way in the present. in terms of its strategic location in the contemporary period.. and is quite close to Israel.org/publication/10328/bronson. after the president enunciated his clear opposition to the Palestinians' UN strategy. “Bronson: Saudis ‘Deeply Concerned’ Over Iran’s Nuclear Program. So it shares a U. Robert Satloff is executive director of The Washington Institute. Saudis in Mideast tug of war. US-Saudi relations resilient LA Times.S.php?id=3061_0_1_0_C. Quest for greater influence intensifies as uprisings in the region further drive a wedge between the longtime allies." The two countries also continue to cooperate closely on counter-terrorism. the largest U. 2011.” http://www. Saudi Arabia’s religiosity has been very important in the region. "U.sapulse. SRM) Recent events.ASU 2011 Steven Murray 43 Saudi DA US-Saudi Relations Resilient Empirically proven – relations will weather the storm Satloff 2011 ("Filling the Strategy Vacuum in the Middle East" Washington Institute Policy Alert. 2011 (June 19. South Asian Pulse. And just this past week.-Saudi relationship and one of the key points in my book is that.com/new_comments.html) The important thing to remember with the U. Saudi leaders put their strategic priorities on display by bucking an anti-Western OPEC decision and helpfully agreeing to increase domestic oil production. Now they’re very focused on their immediate neighbor to the east and their immediate efforts are to try to ensure a nuclear-free Arabian or Persian gulf. In the past they’ve talked about a nuclear-free Middle East with clear reference to the Israelis. The fact is that it borders on Iraq and is across the Persian Gulf from Iran.cfr.S. In addition. former Adjunct Senior Fellow for Middle East Studies. of course. http://www. and have collaborated on the political crisis enveloping Yemen that has raised the specter of a resurgent Al Qaeda.S. For example. In last year's test run for this autumn's diplomatic crisis. concern? On Iran it most certainly does. there was no visible backlash from Riyadh after the Obama administration vetoed a UN Security Council resolution condemning Israeli settlement activity. .

desalinization pants and nuclear reactors. Media reports partly reflect frustration in Washington political circles with Saudi Arabia's hesitant cooperation in the U. or that the royal family's days are numbered.S. albeit not as publicly as the Bush administration might have liked. reports have recently surfaced that the US has been secretly training and equipping an elite Saudi Arabian force of 35.com/p/articles/mi_qa3821/is_200704/ai_n19431912) . Americans are troubled by repons of violent opposition.ASU 2011 Steven Murray 44 Saudi DA EXT – Relations Resilient: Oil and Security Relations strong despite democracy assistance CNN July 3. the kingdom has provided cooperation. as well as the Saudi Arabian National Guard. Since the alliance was formed by President Roosevelt and King Abdul Aziz near the end of World War II.S. The kingdom has begun to put internal and external policies in place in recent years to stabilize the situation they now face.com/2011-0703/us/mideast_1_saudi-arabia-saudi-monarchy-washington-and-riyadh?_s=PM:US.S.S. National Security Adviser Tom Donilon acknowledged in a TV interview that aired Sunday.-Saudi relations. and funded from there." "Our conversations with our partners in the region -. But Donilon told CNN's "Fareed Zakaria GPS" that Washington and the Saudi monarchy have common interests that keep relations "in pretty good shape. And its most important contribution has been on the oil side. 2007. The kingdom does have serious economic and political problems.-led war on terrorism." Giant arms deal ensures US-Saudi relations Front Page 2011 ("Saudis up the nuclear ante"http://frontpagemag. differences of opinion have occurred from time to time. FindArticles. In actual fact.including the Saudis -. The impression has been created that America is bearing the consequences of Saudi incompetence. one which calls for the Saudi purchase of 84 US-built F-15 combat aircraft and an upgrade of 70 existing Saudi F-15s.S. But this is a long way from concluding that Saudi Arabia is an unreliable partner. the Saudis have entered into a $60 billion arms deal with the United States. The arms deal is also said to include an upgrade of the Saudi Patriot short-range missile defense in favor of a system to defend against higher-flying. corruption.com/2011/07/22/saudis-up-the-nuclear-ante/. http://findarticles. relationship with Saudi Arabia and the imminent demise of the Saudi royal family. The two countries enjoy a long-standing strategic alliance. Close U. founded on a simple exchange: Saudi Arabia would provide an uninterrupted flow of oil to the United States.000 troops to provide security for Saudi energy production facilities. Robinson Former Assistant Secretary of the Interior. American and Saudi security interests are the basis of relations Dris-Ait-Hamadouche 2007 (Louisa "US-SAUDI RELATIONSHIP AND THE IRAQ WAR: THE DIALECTICS OF A DEPENDENT ALLIANCE. SRM) The United States has had "scratchy periods" with Saudi Arabia and other Middle Eastern allies over its support for reform movements in the region. This picture is outdated and complicates U. 06 Oct." Donilon said. and currently Chairman of the Petroleum Finance Co “The Saudi problem: ignore the press reports” http://findarticles. THE". as well as the fact that many of Osama bin Laden's terrorists were born in Saudi Arabia. In addition to the arms deal.I think have become very constructive and productive. 2011 ("Obama adviser discusses 'scratchy' ties with Arab allies" http://articles.com/p/articles/mi_m2633/is_6_15/ai_82005574) The American public has recently been served up a stream of articles about strains in the U. Middle East policy. SRM) To that end. Sentiment on the ground is certainly more charged than before September 11th. guaranteeing that Saudi resources would not fall prey to hungry predators. cajoling OPEC into accepting lower prices immediately after September 11th. and inaction. but the underlying foundation remained solid. medium-range ballistic missiles.-Saudi relations are a keystone of U. "And I can tell you that from personal conversations with King Abdullah.com.cnn. Spring 2007. Ignore talk of fluctuation: security and oil are the only relevant issues in US/Saudi relations West 2001 (J. The newly developed force is separate from the Saudi military. Journal of Third World Studies. which in return would insure regional security.

000 Americans continue to live and work there. b/the maintenance of an American security umbrella over the kingdom and its GCC neighbors. and training. it is obvious that the country's development strategy. Yet. Saudi Arabia signed some $7. oil policy. but it has not completely eliminated them.6 billion.9 billion and imports from the US at $7. In American and Saudi thinking. The spectacular "military withdrawal" announced after the end of major operations in Iraq in May 2003 has yet to occur. and commercial interests are driven by Western-educated and Western-influenced Saudis. Moreover. and. notably because of the internal contestation (the well-known opposition of Islamist movements to the presence of foreign troops in the Holy Land).45 . removing Iraqi President Saddam Hussein helped reduce the security risks in the Gulf. and a US military presence on the horizon was sufficient to guarantee our security. Even where Westerners are not directly involved. the second one is quite problematic. equipment. Irish. and the joint general staff committee. resumed meetings in summer 2003. "There was no US base here before 1990. Some 30. American arms and military assistance have gone largely to protect the royal family42 from internal and external threats. Both sides expect instability in the years or even decades to come.000. security arrangements.ASU 2011 Steven Murray 45 Saudi DA This security assistance from the United States rests on two requirements: a/supply of arms. American military personnel and civilian contractors on military-related projects remain at their jobs in Saudi Arabia."44 There is also the "continuing need" for US and Saudi security cooperation. while arms agreements in the period 1991-1997 alone amounted to nearly $23 billion. 4. The total value of US arms agreements with Saudi Arabia from 1950 through March 1997 was some $94 billion. This is precisely why some analysts feel that isolating Saudi Arabia is not in US interest and that Congress and media bashing of the kingdom is counterproductive. close observers of the Saudi scene43 estimated that Saudi Arabia operates more than 750 US main battle tanks.000 and 40. The number of US instructors is likely to be increased. as do thousands of Britons. and the Saudi need for US training and technical support will continue for at least another decade. and other Europeans. and some 200 advanced combat aircraft. the number of US personnel in Saudi Arabia (military forces and contractors working with the local armed forces) revolves between 35. More recently. According to the Washington-based Congressional Research Service. This two-way traffic is dominated by oil flows to the US and arms sales to Saudi Arabia. which has not met since 2001. In fact. The military cooperation explains in part the value of US-Saudi trade.7 billion worth of new arms agreements with the US between 1995 and 2002.800 other armored vehicles. In 1999 Saudi exports to the US were estimated at $7.41 If the first element does not cause any trouble. this mission remains possible even outside the borders. going from Qatar or other GCC states. US training and support is critical to all of Saudi Arabia's military services and the Saudi National Guard.

including by the United States. But whether or not Sneh should have spoken out. and take a no less heavy toll on civilian morale. surface-to-air defense--to ensure that the feat performed by Israel's air force in 1981. the option he referred to may be less viable than it once was. Commentary. air bases." In other words. These are the implications of launch-onwarning. the chairman of the Knesset's foreign-affairs and security committee. a general in the Israeli army reserves and a leading member of the opposition Labor party. Iran or Iraq. It is a nightmarish prospect. the question has arisen of what forcible steps Israel might take in order to deny nuclear weapons to its enemies. For the purpose of considering this eventuality. signaling to Iran the cost of going nuclear. its better the US be involved in guiding it -. dispersion. Israel is a tiny country. spoke publicly of the possibility that the IDF might be compelled to "deliver a conventional counterstrike or preemptive strike" against Iranian atomic facilities. as Uzi Landau. If preemption is largely ruled out as an option. and unlike the U. though its true that nuclear assistance might be playing with fire. storage bunkers. Even so. This was not long after Teheran tested its Shahab-3 missile--to the yawns of the international community--and then displayed the missile in a military parade with banners draped from it reading. and in a nuclear environment it would not have the luxury of waiting to assess the damage from a first strike before deciding how to respond. and for which it was universally condemned at the time. say.S. it might rethink its strategic calculations and turn back from weaponization. Iranian proliferation leads to Israeli launch and nuclear war Schoenfeld 1998 (Gabriel.” June 10/ http://www. at the first hint from satellite intelligence or some other means that a missile fusillade was being prepared from.commanding greater influence and knowledge of capabilities -. Iran and Iraq would be under tremendous pressure to launch their missiles first--to "use them or lose them. Lacking secure second-strike forces of their own. however. Right now Iran has conventional weapons superiority in the region but a drive to nuclear weapons that results in proliferation would eliminate their advantage through nuclear-provided strategic parity. what then? To reduce its vulnerability--enemy missiles can arrive within ten minutes from firing--Israel may well be compelled to adopt a "launch-onwarning" posture for both its conventional and nuclear forces. Both Iran and Iraq have already taken measures--concealment. this would not offer much reassurance. This past September. we may assume that Israel has indeed developed a secure retaliatory force of the kind Tucker saw as essential to stability. could not easily be repeated. some of which it might well miss. “Another Take on Saudi Arabia's Nuclear Agenda. If Iran actually believes that other states in the gulf region are ready and capable of also going nuclear. The possibility that nuclear war might break out at any moment--by accident. miscalculation. to protect its populace. Sneh was roundly criticized at home for his remarks. Unlike its neighbors. in any future crisis. Thus. Certainly one must be wary of this spiraling into an arms race.. explained. Israel. If some sort of Saudi/GCC peaceful nuclear venture is inevitable.com/archives/2008/06/another_respons) Finally. and aware that Israel would no doubt try to hit them preemptively. there seems to be a very legitimate strategic calculus to assisting the Saudi government -. and all other critical nodes--so as to paralyze the enemy and thus rule out the possibility of attack. Clearly.Iran Saudi prolif deters Iran nuclearization Lalwani 2008 (Sameer. "unnecessary chatter" could heighten the likelihood of Israel's being targeted for attack. "Israel should be wiped from the map"--to still more yawns by the international community.rather than China or Russia stepping in to assume the role of nuclear patron. but at a broader range of targets--communications facilities. the senior editor of Commentary. what this scenario leads to is the prospect of both sides' moving to a permanent position of hair-trigger alert. And it would have to strike not only at missile sites. but there is also a conceivable strategic logic to the moves being played by the US and Saudi Arabia.namely. hardening. LEXIS) Now. Saudi and the GCC have already indicated interest in this nuclear project but also in dissuading Iran from its nuclear ambitions and ultimately developing a regional security architecture for the Gulf states as Thomas Lippman has argued. Ephraim Sneh. . once again. such a posture presents grave problems. not because he was wrong but because. or design--would inevitably place an intolerable strain on Israel's freedom of military movement. would have to punch first.thewashingtonnote.ASU 2011 Steven Murray 46 Saudi DA Saudi Prolif Good .

analyst of international security affairs. complicity) is not reversed soon ."(41) and Ezar Weissman... "Should war break out in the Middle East again.htm) Meanwhile.ASU 2011 Steven Murray 47 Saudi DA Saudi Prolif Good .” Asia Times) Another consideration is that a possible Saudi nuclear deterrent might also check Iran. and dramatically lowers the threshold for their actual use.) Israeli nukes aimed at the Russian heartland seriously complicate disarmament and arms control negotiations and. appears to have some basis in reality.. many allegedly based on sources with access to these governments. if not for all out nuclear war. and even the threat of nuclear war. the explosion of reports from different sources in the US and Europe. a way to check India and its allies or partners. Israel no longer needs U.the deepening Middle East conflict could trigger a world conflagration. “Saudi Arabia's nuclear gambit. ". It is widely reported that the principal purpose of Jonathan Pollard's spying for Israel was to furnish satellite images of Soviet targets and other super sensitive data relating to U. once unthinkable except as a last resort. (43) (Since launching its own satellite in 1988. Although both governments have firmly denied these allegations of nuclear cooperation. Thus..for whatever reason .wagingpeace.S.S. especially over Afghanistan."(42) Russia and before it the Soviet Union has long been a major (if not the major) target of Israeli nukes. the unilateral possession of nuclear weapons by Israel is enormously destabilizing. a possible Riyadh-Islamabad axis would offer those two capitals. spy secrets.org/articles/2002/03/00_steinbach_israeli-wmd. or should any Arab nation fire missiles against Israel. a nuclear escalation.Stability Saudi prolif is inevitable and secures Middle East instability by deterrence Blank 2003 (Stephen. with whom Pakistan has issues. as the Iraqis did. would now be a strong probability. Middle East instability ensures nuclear war Steinbach 2002 (John Steinbach in March 2002 (Source: Nuclear Age Peace Foundation http://www." (44) . the existence of an arsenal of mass destruction in such an unstable region in turn has serious implications for future arms control and disarmament negotiations. nuclear targeting strategy. Iran and Israel.. Seymour Hersh warns. at the very least.S. In the words of Mark Gaffney. both of which continue to sponsor terrorism in Palestine and Kashmir respectively. Israel's current President said "The nuclear issue is gaining momentum (and the) next war will not be conventional. if the familar pattern(Israel refining its weapons of mass destruction with U.

reports of an understanding between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia for Islamabad to provide nuclear weapons to Riyadh if the Saudis feel threatened by a third party with nuclear weapons. the Saudis purchased from China advanced ballistic missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads. SRM) Fearful that he will soon face a nuclear-armed Iran.com/2011/07/22/saudis-up-the-nuclear-ante/. Saudis proliferating now because of Iran Front Page 2011 ("Saudis up the nuclear ante"http://frontpagemag. but rumours continue to surface as Iran moves closer to developing its own bomb. Saudi Arabia’s Prince Turki al-Faisal recently warned that the Saudi Kingdom would have no choice but to develop its own nuclear weapons. a move he said would lead to “untold and possibly dramatic consequences. 2011 ("Pakistan and the Bomb: whose finger is on the button?" LEXIS. one espoused by Saudi King Abdullah in 2006 when he said that if Iran ever developed nuclear weapons. “everyone in the region would. So.” However. can carry a 500kT nuclear warhead over 1.ASU 2011 Steven Murray 48 Saudi DA EXT – Saudi Prolif Inevitable Pakistan will give Saudis the bomb The Nation. including Saudi Arabia. . For example. the DF-21. Both Pakistan and Saudi Arabia deny any secret deal. in April 2011. Then Saudi defence minister and now also Crown Prince Sultan Ibn Abdul Aziz Al Saud visited Pakistan's laboratories amid great publicity in the late 1990s. SRM) Pakistan may also continue to contribute to nuclear proliferation. it appears the Saudis have actually begun laying the groundwork for a similar pursuit. the remarks by al-Faisal — a former Saudi intelligence official — simply echo that view. they have also unequivocally stated that they won’t sit back and allow themselves to be the only nonnuclear nation in the region. but unverified. with Iran now edging ever closer to acquiring its own nuclear weapons. Some sensationalist reports claim the Saudis keep aircraft permanently deployed in Pakistan to rush a bomb or two to Riyadh if needed. There are persistent. One of the missiles.800 kilometers.” While the Saudi’s have long voiced the strategic goal of a nuclear-free Middle East.

head of the Saudi delegation to the Treaty on Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. SRM) Still. the Saudis reported a budget surplus of $77 billion. the Defense Minister and Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia. is a signatory to the NPT and participates in the safeguard regime of the . known as the King Abdullah City for Atomic and Renewable Energy. No Saudi Prolif – pushing non-proliferation now BBC 2010 (April 14. especially nuclear weapons.prefer nuclear energy Nucleonics Week 2010 ("Middle Eastern nuclear growth expected. SRM) The GCC countries are compliant with international conventions and have in the past all said they prefer not to enrich nuclear fuel. the final development of a nuclear weapon could take one to two decades. which Saudi Arabia’s leaders know would not be in their country’s best interests.ASU 2011 Steven Murray 49 Saudi DA A/T: Saudi Prolif – Incentive/Means No Saudi prolif . but obstacles remain" LEXIS. nuclear weapons by their nature contravene the tenets of Islam. The center. the Government of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has repeatedly confirmed the concerns raised in this report which are compatible with the relevant resolutions of the General Assembly of the United Nations in 1974. controversial and extremely difficult for Saudi Arabia. Money is not an issue — if destitute North Korea can develop nuclear weapons." Bandar Al-Sudairy said. Saudi Arabia and the NPT Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia may be waiting to see how the UAE nuclear program develops before placing an order for its first nuclear power plant. would launch Saudi Arabia on a dangerously inflammatory trajectory that could destabilize the entire region. "is mandated to supervise. it should be noted that even if the Saudis are seriously intent on pursuing a nuclear weapons course. According to Sultan bin ‘Abd al-‘Aziz. said in a speech at the United Nations in New York that a new nuclear and renewable energy center would oversee peaceful uses of those energy sources. Rogner said. monitor and control all usages of atomic energy and the resulting radioactive waste. http://www. and would surely cause a serious breach with the United States. Saudi Arabia can’t and has no incentive to proliferate Lippman 2008 (Thomas. 'This report of the Kingdom was issued as an official document of the Sixth Review Conference of States' Parties to the Treaty on Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons in 2000. There are compelling reasons why Saudi Arabia would not undertake an effort to develop or acquire nuclear weapons. The Saudis always prefer stability to turmoil. Riyadh is flush with cash. In May.susris. like Iran. the Saudis have the money to build a nuclear weapons system. former Middle East correspondent and a diplomatic and national security reporter for The Washington Post. in particular an absence of highly skilled technicians. which conforms closely With this initiative of the Summit. Saudi Arabia surely has the resources to pursue such a program. "Nuclear Weapons and Saudi Strategy". For starters. however. and ultimately would likely weaken the kingdom rather than strengthen it. that Saudi Arabia would wish to acquire its own nuclear arsenal or that it is capable of doing so.' He said. a myriad of obstacles abound. Rogner said. a key concession being sought by the US as a condition for 123 agreements. but they presently lack the technological capacity. SRM) Prince Miqrin said the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia had submitted a report that highlighted its views on measures to make the Middle East a free zone from nuclear weapons. engineers and scientists. Naif bin Bandar Al-Sudairy. Such a course would be directly contrary to the Kingdom’s longstanding stated goal of making the entire Middle East a nuclear weapons free zone. "Saudi intelligence chief addresses nuclear security summit" LEXIS. An attempt to acquire nuclear weapons by purchasing them. But the acquisition or development of nuclear weapons would be provocative.' Saudis cant proliferate – no tech Front Page 2011 ("Saudis up the nuclear ante"http://frontpagemag.com/articles/2008/ioi/080209lippman-nuclear. Saudi Arabia lacks the industrial and technological base to develop such weapons on its own. perhaps from Pakistan. and with oil prices above $90 a barrel.com/2011/07/22/saudis-up-the-nuclear-ante/.html) It is far from certain. destabilizing. and adopted at each session of the General Assembly by consensus since its 35th session in 1980. including the resolution which calls for declaring the Middle East and Arab Gulf region free from all weapons of mass destruction. 'In this regard. even in the unlikely event that Iran achieves a stockpile and uses this arsenal to threaten the Kingdom. In the fall of 2007. As such. Pursuing nuclear weapons would be a flagrant violation of Saudi Arabia’s commitments under the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT).

but its reluctance was not based on a desire to develop nuclear wepons. But then in 1988 it was virtually forced to sign the NPT because of intense pressure from the United States. It signed the treaty only under duress.ASU 2011 Steven Murray 50 Saudi DA International Atomic Energy Agency. . The Kingdom’s position was that it would be happy to join the NPT system when Israel did so.

LEXIS. "TEHRAN TESTS SAUDIS' NERVE ON NUKES". 2011 (Yoel Guzansky is a research fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies at Tel Aviv University. Saudi Arabia would feel obligated to acquire similar capability. will be the deciding factor in Saudi proliferation Guzansky July 1st. . stressed recently that if Iran were to develop a nuclear weapon ``Saudi Arabia might feel pressure to acquire a nuclear deterrent of its own''. However. should it become certain Iran is a nuclear weapons state. Former head of the Saudi intelligence service and ambassador to the US. SRM) The Saudi strategy perhaps depends most of all on if and how Iran crosses the nuclear threshold. Turki al-Faisal. He joined INSS after serving at Israel's National Security Council. Earlier this month The Wall Street Journal reported another Saudi threat to go nuclear or ``to pursue policies that could lead to untold and possibly dramatic consequences''. should Iran do the same. not the US. Should Iran not cross the nuclear threshold. Saudi Arabia may be able to turn a blind eye or aspire to become a threshold state itself.ASU 2011 Steven Murray 51 Saudi DA A/T: Saudi Prolif – Iran Alt Cause Iran.

1995 (Shai. Third. since the blast-weight ratio of nuclear devices is on the order of magnitude of a million times greater. Put simply.[19] It was argued that effective deterrence requires-robust capabilities and considerable determination. 49:1.” Journal of International Affairs. these perceptions were merely reinforced by the nuclear disaster at Chemobyl -the effects of which were very modest in comparison with the expected outcomes of a possible nuclear weapons exchange.[18] In an earlier work. a state equipped with nuclear weapons enjoys a nearly unlimited capability to inflict punishment. nuclear weapons provide states with far more robust deterrence than conventional arms. By contrast. the outcome of deterrent confrontations is determined by states' relative capacity to inflict punishment and their relative willingness to absorb such costs. Summer) The uncertainty regarding current and future Middle East nuclear proliferation trends is compounded by even greater uncertainty regarding the likely effects of such proliferation should it take place. conventional deterrence is vulnerable to variations in the sensitivity to costs among different states. conventional deterrence often fails because countries and regimes may be insensitive to the level of costs involved in the execution of the threat to use conventional forces. and despite the clear constraints addressed below. This is because a simple extrapolation from the widely-recognized horrors of Hiroshima and Nagasaki to today's far larger-yield nuclear weapons leaves little doubt about the catastrophic effects of any use of nuclear arms.[20] First. since the level of damage that can be caused by a small number of nuclear weapons is -. Thus. Indeed. it is difficult to envisage a regime so insensitive to costs that it would ignore credible threats to inflict nuclear punishment.for all practical purposes -. Indeed. the enormous damage that would be caused by nuclear weapons makes it easier to overcome the impact of these variations. . “Middle East Nuclear Stability: The State of the Region and the State of the Debate.ASU 2011 Steven Murray 52 Saudi DA Prolif: Not Bad Deterrence prevents escalation in the middle east Feldman. Senior Research Associate at Tel Aviv University’s Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies and Director of the Center’s Project on Security and Arms Control in the Middle East.unlimited. Second. Nuclear weapons can cause significantly greater damage than conventional explosives. Generally. this writer portrayed the logic of nuclear deterrence from the perspective of a single small state seeking security and survival. nuclear weapons leave far less room for misperceptions about the damage that can be caused.

htm) Of course. http://www. director of policy and strategic planning at IAGS.S. the present moment makes the exercise almost foolhardy." Significantly. if predicting the future is risky at all times. too. but as a mainstream country capable of rivaling what is at times viewed as a heavy-handed United States. its astonishing economic growth may yet turn out to be a bubble. realists also argue that a competitor will strive to emulate the policies and general characteristics of the state to which they aspire in order to be viewed as similar and non-threatening by the hegemon and international community. If such concerns continue to mount. published international security author University of Illinois. many other factors must be weighed in the balance. executive director of the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security. The shelves of Wal-Mart alone account for 10 percent of China's exports to the U. so will its high rates of energy consumption. Libya. calling it a "key driver" impelling relations with "terrorist-sponsoring governments" in the region. Right now. Syria. . “Power Projections of the People’s Republic of China: An Investigative Analysis of Defensive and Offensive Realism in Chinese Foreign Policy” https://www.ideals. a group created by Congress to monitor relations between the two countries. Whether and under what circumstances the U. engaged in diplomatic tiffs over Taiwan and a downed US Navy plane. security interests. but it is also heavily dependent on trade with the U. entailing high costs in relations with other powers. No longer would the PRC be viewed as a rogue power. The Chinese economy may be heavily dependent on Middle Eastern oil. Besides.pdf) However. and.S.S. Already there are signs of growing disquiet in Washington over China's role in the Middle East.uiuc.edu/bitstream/2142/34/1/HellerOP. being a member of the WTO and hosting the Olympic Games bring economic implications and prestige—signs of a powerful nation on the rise. and in particular with the U. The Chinese may well find fishing in Middle Eastern waters to be a risky business. China could find itself gaining in one region only to lose in another. Neither policy would seem to improve the security of China drastically. if it pops. and 1 percent of China's GDP. That the Middle East is in an exceptionally volatile condition goes without saying. it could develop ways to harness fuels produced from coal and biomass (both of which it has in abundance) and thus overcome its dependence on imported oil altogether. any collision over Middle Eastern oil is more a potential than an actual threat. The U. the report took special notice of China's growing dependence on imported oil.org/sinosaudi. And as for China.” Commentary Magazine. and Sudan. and Anne. Then.China Economic and Security Review Commission. This was characterized as "an increasing threat to U.8 To support this argument is China’s bid for the 2008 Olympic Games in Beijing and the drive for admission into the World Trade Organization (WTO). even if stellar economic growth continues. No US-China conflict in the Middle East Luft and Korin 2004 (Gal. issued a warning in 2002 over China's provision of "technology and components for weapons of mass destruction and their delivery systems" to such Middle Eastern states as Iran.iags. since it has not yet invested heavily in an expensive petroleum infrastructure.S.S.ASU 2011 Steven Murray 53 Saudi DA A/T: China Aggression China is pursuing a peaceful entrance into the international order Heller 2003 (Eric Nathaniel. Great powers are rewarded if they appear both strong and potentially dangerous because states ally with the strongest and most threatening powers.S. however. would ever choose to exercise its leverage is another matter. the Chinese may find attractive alternatives to oil: the country is extremely rich in coal and natural gas. “The Sino-Saudi Connection.