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TO: Interested Parties FROM: Aaron Strauss, DCCC Director of Targeting and Data RE: CA-10 DCCC IVR

Results DATE: September 18, 2012 Astronaut and Democratic candidate Jose Hernandez has gained significant ground with likely voters in Californias 10th district in recent weeks, making the congressional race at least a tie and shifting the momentum of the race to his side. The DCCCs latest IVR survey indicates that Hernandez has slightly pulled ahead of incumbent Republican Jeff Denham 46% to 44%, with 11% of voters still undecided. Though Hernandezs lead is within the margin of error, this represents a 9 point shift compared to a publically released Democracy for America poll from August (Hernandez 41%, Denham 48%), and shows that the momentum in the race has swung in favor of Hernandez. The movement comes on the heels of Hernandezs first flight of televisions ads (over 1,300 gross ratings points in the past two weeks) which convey his strong personal connection to the Central Valley and his commitment to bring the values of hard work and common sense with him to Washington. It comes as little surprise that, after he has had the chance to communicate, Hernandez has been able to capitalize on Denhams vulnerabilities in a district that has undergone dramatic changes as a result of redistricting. Denham has only represented about a third (37%) of the new CA-10 previously, and despite his advantage as an incumbent, his name recognition is on par with the quickly-rising Hernandez (59% hard name ID for Denham, 57% hard name ID for Hernandez). Yet voters hold a much more favorable view of Hernandez than Denham. Hernandezs ratio of favorable to unfavorable ratings is more than 3 to 1 (43% favorable, 14% unfavorable), while voters opinions of Denham are comparatively mixed (39% favorable, 20% unfavorable). The newly-drawn 10th congressional district, which includes the city of Modesto, is a true swing district that presents a viable pickup opportunity for congressional Democrats in 2012. In 2008, Obama won 51% of the two-party vote in the district. When voters in this survey were asked about the 2008 election, Obama led McCain 47% to 46%very similar to the actual result.
The data in this memo is from a survey of 382 likely 2012 voters conducted September 10, 2012 in Californias new 10 Congressional district. Respondents information came from the voter file and respondents were interviewed over the phone by an automated survey. The margin of error is 5.0.
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