The term "finance" in our simple understanding it is perceived as equivalent to 'Money'. We read about Money and banking in Economics, about Monetary Theory and Practice and about "Public Finance". But finance exactly is not money, it is the source of providing funds for a particular activity. Thus public finance does not mean the money with the Government, but it refers to sources of raising revenue for the activities and functions of a Government. Here some of the definitions of the word 'finance', both as a source and as an activity i.e. as a noun and a verb. The American Heritage® Dictionary of the English Language, Fourth Edition defines the term as under    The science of the management of money and other assets.; "The management of money, banking, investments, and credit.; finances Monetary resources; funds, especially those of a government or corporate body The supplying of funds or capital.

Finance as a function (i.e. verb) is defined by the same dictionary as under To provide or raise the funds or capital for": financed a new car  To supply funds to": financing a daughter through law school.  To furnish credit to. Another English Dictionary, "WordNet ® 1.6, © 1997Princeton University " defines the term as under the commercial activity of providing funds and capital  the branch of economics that studies the management of money and other assets  the management of money and credit and banking and investments The same dictionary also defines the term as a function in similar words as under obtain or provide money for; Can we finance the addition to our home?  sell or provide on credit All definitions listed above refer to finance as a source of funding an activity. In this respect providing or securing finance by itself is a distinct activity or function, which results in Financial Management, Financial Services and Financial Institutions. Finance therefore represents the resources by way funds needed for a particular activity. We thus speak of 'finance' only in relation to a proposed activity. Finance goes with commerce, business, banking etc. Finance is also referred to as "Funds" or "Capital", when referring to the financial needs of a corporate body. When we study finance as a subject for generalising its profile and attributes, we distinguish between 'personal finance" and "corporate finance" i.e. resources needed personally by an individual for his family and individual needs and resources needed by a business organization to carry on its functions intended for the achievement of its corporate goals.


It is an institutional framework existing in a country to enable financial transactions.

The economic development of a nation is reflected by the progress of the various economic units, broadly classified into corporate sector, government and household sector. While performing their activities these units will be placed in a surplus/deficit/balanced budgetary situations. There are areas or people with surplus funds and there are those with a deficit. A financial system or financial sector functions as an intermediary and facilitates the flow of funds from the areas of surplus to the areas of deficit. A Financial System is a composition of various institutions, markets, regulations and laws, practices, money manager, analysts, transactions and claims and liabilities. FINANCIAL SYSTEM

The word "system", in the term "financial system", implies a set of complex and closely connected or interlined institutions, agents, practices, markets, transactions, claims, and liabilities in the economy. The financial system is concerned about money, credit and finance-the three terms are intimately related yet are somewhat different from each other. Indian financial system consists of financial market, financial instruments and financial intermediation. STRUCTURE OF FINANCIAL SYSTEM IN INDIA Financial structure refers to the mix of financial institutions, instruments and markets that channel savings and other funds to businesses and other borrowers. In a bank-based system, banks play the major role in channeling funds to businesses. In a market-based system, capital markets - including the stock and bond markets - are the more important source of funds.










Financial Instruments:

A financial instrument is a claim against an institution or a person for payment at a future date of a sum of money in the form of dividend. It enables channelising funds from surplus units to deficit units. There are instruments for savers such as deposits, equities, mutual fund units, etc. Also there are instruments for borrowers such as loans, overdrafts, etc. Just like corporate, governments too raise funds through issuing of bonds, Treasury bills, etc. The Instruments like PPF, KVP, etc. are available to savers who wish to lend money to the government.

Money Market Instruments

The money market can be defined as a market for short-term money and financial assets that are near substitutes for money. The term short-term means generally a period upto one year and near substitutes to money is used to denote any financial asset which can be quickly converted into money with minimum transaction cost. Some of the important money market instruments are briefly discussed below;  Call/Notice Money  Treasury Bills  Term Money 3

 

Certificate of Deposit Commercial Papers

Capital Market Instruments

The capital market generally consists of the following long term period i.e., more than one year period, financial instruments; in the equity segment Equity shares, preference shares, convertible preference shares, non-convertible preference shares etc and in the debt segment debentures, zero coupon bonds, deep discount bonds etc.

 

Hybrid Instruments

Hybrid instruments have both the features of equity and debenture. This kind of instruments is called as hybrid instruments. Examples are convertible debentures, warrants etc.

Financial Institutions:

Financial Institution can be classified as banking and non banking institutions. Banking Institutions are creators and purveyors of credit while non banking financial institutions are purveyors of credit. Influence generation of savings by the community and gives long term loans to business community. Further, it offers the following;  Mobilization of savings  Effective distribution of savings  Institutions are banks, insurance companies and mutual funds- promote/mobilize savings  Individual investors, industrial and trading companies- borrowers

Financial markets:

A Financial Market can be defined as the market in which financial assets are created or transferred. As against a real transaction that involves exchange of money for real goods or services, a financial transaction involves creation or transfer of a financial asset. Financial Assets or Financial Instruments represents a claim to the payment of a sum of money sometime in the future and /or periodic payment in the form of interest or dividend.

Money Market

The money market is a wholesale debt market for low-risk, highly-liquid, short-term instrument. Funds are available in this market for periods ranging from a single day up to a year. This market is dominated mostly by government, banks and financial institutions.

 

Capital Market Forex Market

The capital market is designed to finance the long-term investments. The transactions taking place in this market will be for periods over a year. The Forex market deals with the multicurrency requirements, which are met by the exchange of currencies. Depending on the exchange rate that is applicable, the transfer of funds takes place in this market. This is one of the most developed and integrated market across the globe.

Credit Market

Credit market is a place where banks, FIs and NBFCs purvey short, medium and longterm loans to corporate and individuals.

Financial intermediaries:

Having designed the instrument, the issuer should then ensure that these financial assets reach the ultimate investor in order to garner the requisite amount. When the borrower of funds approaches the financial market to raise funds, mere issue of securities will not suffice. Adequate information of the issue, issuer and the security should be passed on to take place. There should be a proper channel within the financial system to ensure such transfer. To serve this purpose, financial intermediaries came into existence. Financial intermediation in the organized sector is conducted by a wide range of institutions functioning under the overall surveillance of the Reserve Bank of India. In the initial stages, the role of the intermediary was mostly related to ensure transfer of funds from the lender to the borrower. This service was offered by banks, FIs, brokers, and dealers. However, as the financial system widened along with the developments taking place in the financial markets, the scope of its operations also widened. Some of the important intermediaries operating in the financial markets include; investment bankers, underwriters, stock exchanges, registrars, depositories, custodians, portfolio managers, mutual funds, financial advertisers financial consultants, primary dealers, satellite dealers, self 4

regulatory organizations, etc. Though the markets are different, there may be a few intermediaries offering their services in more than one market e.g. underwriter. However, the services offered by them vary from one market to another.









The capital market has 3 components - the equity market, the debt market, and the derivative market. It consists of all those connected with issuing and trading in equity shares and also medium and long term debt instruments, namely, bonds and debentures. It is well accepted that tenures less than one year are considered as short term; while tenures more than one year and up to three years may be taken as medium term while more than three years can be considered as long term. Both equity and debt market have 2 segments - the primary market dealing with new issues of equity and debt instruments and the secondary market which facilitates trading in equity and debt instruments thereby imparting liquidity to the instruments and making it possible for people with different liquidity preferences to participate in the market. The capital market operations are regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India [SEBI].

Primary Market:

The primary market provides a channel for sale of new securities. This market provides opportunity to issuers of securities, the government as well as corporate, to raise resources to meet their requirements of investments and/or discharge their obligations. They may issue securities at face value, discount, or premium. They may also issue the securities in the domestic market and/or the international market.

 Initial Public Offering [IPO] - An initial public offering is when an unlisted company makes either a fresh issue of securities or an offer for sale of its existing securities or both for the first time to the public.  Further Issue - A follow on public offering is known as further issue. This is offered through an offer document when an already listed organization makes either a fresh issue of securities to the public or an offer for sale to the public.  Rights Issue - Here, a listed organization proposes to issue fresh securities to its existing shareholders as on a record date. The rights are offered in a particular ratio to the number of securities held prior to the issue. This route is best suited for organizations who would like to raise capital without diluting the stake of its existing shareholders.  Preferential Issue - This is an issue of either shares or convertible securities by listed organizations to a select group of people under Section 81 of the Companies Act, 1956. This issue is neither a Rights issue nor Public issue and is a faster way for any organization to raise capital.

Different kinds of issues:

Secondary Market:

The secondary market facilitates trading in equity and long term debt instruments, and therefore imparts liquidity and price discovery. It is an equity-trading venue in which the already existing or pre-issued securities are traded among investors. This market could be either the auction-market or the dealer market. While stock exchange is the part of the auction market, OTC is a part of the dealer market.  Concepts of secondary market: 6

 Corporate Action - Declaration of dividends, issue of bonus shares, and splitting shares into smaller denominations are called corporate actions. They impact the market price of shares as they alter the intrinsic value of the shares.  Buyback of Shares - Buyback is a method for an organization to invest by buying shares from other investors in the market. It is done by the organization for the purpose of improving the liquidity in its shares and enhancing the shareholders? wealth. As per SEBI regulations, the organization is permitted to buy back its shares from: i. Existing shareholders proportionately through an offer document

ii. iii.

 Index - Index shows how a specified portfolio of share prices is moving to give an indication of the market trends. It is a basket of securities and the average price movement of the basket of securities indicates the index movement, whether upwards or downwards. S& P CNX Nifty (Nifty), is a scientifically developed, 50stock index, reflecting accurately the market movement of the Indian markets.  Sensex - Sensex is an index based on shares traded on the BSE. The Sensex and Nifty are the barometers of the Indian markets. The indices are composite in nature in that they cover a large segment of industries.

Open market through stock exchanges using the book-building process Shareholders holding odd lot shares


Derivative is a product whose value is derived from the value of one or more basic variables, called underlying. The underlying asset can be equity, index, foreign exchange (Forex), commodity, or any other asset.

Types of derivatives:

Various types of derivatives relating to shares are:  Forwards - This is a customized contract between two entities, where settlement takes place on a specific date in the future at today?s pre-agreed price.  Futures - It is an agreement between two parties to buy or sell an asset at a certain time in the future at a certain price.  Options - An option is a contract which gives the right, but not an obligation, to buy or sell the underlying at a stated date and a stated price.  Warrants - Options generally have lives of up to one year. Most of the options on exchanges have maximum maturity of nine months. Longer dated options are called warrants and these are generally traded over-the-counter

Interest rate derivatives:

Swaps involve exchange of one stream of interest payments for another stream of interest payments. For example, an organization that has taken a loan at fixed interest rate may like to convert it to a floating rate loan. The organization can enter into a swap transaction with a bank to get interest at fixed rate and pay interest on the same notional capital, the amount of the loan at floating rate. Banks offer interest rate swaps to its customers.

Commodity derivatives:

A commodity exchange is an organization, such as stock exchange, organizing futures trading in commodities. The main commodity exchanges in India are the NCDEX and MCX both of which offer on line trading facility. These markets trade contracts for which the underlying asset is commodity. It can be an agricultural commodity such as wheat, soybeans, rapeseed, cotton, or precious metals like gold and silver.


A ―stock‖ is a share in the ownership of a company. It stock represents a claim on the company's assets and earnings. As you acquire more stocks, your ownership stake in the company becomes greater.

So what does ownership of a company give you?

Holding a company's stock means that you are one of the many owners (shareholders) of a company and, as such, you have a claim to everything the company owns. This means that technically you own a tiny little piece of all the furniture, every trademark, and every contract of the company. As an owner, you are entitled to your share of the company's earnings as well. These earnings will be given to you. These earnings are called ―dividends‖ and are given to the shareholders from time to time. A stock is represented by a "stock certificate". This is a piece of paper that is proof of your ownership. However, now-a-days you could also have a ―demat‖ account. This means that there will be no ―stock certificates‖. Everything will be done though the computer electronically. Selling and buying stocks can be done just by a few clicks. Being a shareholder of a public company does not mean you have a say in the day-to-day running of the business. Instead, ―one vote per share‖ to elect the board of directors of the company at annual meetings is all you can do. For instance, being a Microsoft shareholder doesn't mean you can call up Bill Gates and tell him how you think the company should be run. The management of the company is supposed to increase the value of the firm for shareholders. If this doesn't happen, the shareholders can vote to have the management removed. In reality, individual investors like you and I don't own enough shares to have a material influence on the company. It's really the big boys like large institutional investors and billionaire entrepreneurs who make the decisions. For ordinary shareholders, not being able to manage the company isn't such a big deal. After all, the idea is that you don't want to have to work to make money, right? The importance of being a shareholder is that you are entitled to a portion of the company‘s profits and have a claim on assets. Profits are sometimes paid out in the form of dividends as mentioned earlier. The more shares you own, the larger the portion of the profits you get. Your claim on assets is only relevant if a company goes bankrupt. In case of liquidation, you'll receive what's left after all the creditors have been paid. Another extremely important feature of stock is "limited liability", which means that, as an owner of a stock, you are "not personally liable" if the company is not able to pay its debts. In other legal structures such as partnerships, if the partnership firm goes bankrupt the creditors can come after the partners ―personally‖ and sell off their house, car, furniture, etc. Owning stock means that, no matter what happens to the company, the maximum value you can lose is the value of your stocks. Even if a company of which you are a shareholder goes bankrupt, you can never lose your personal assets. 8

A stock market or equity market is a public (a loose network of economic transactions, not a physical facility or discrete) entity for the trading of company stock (shares) and derivatives at an agreed price; these are securities listed on a stock exchange as well as those only traded privately. The size of the world stock market was estimated at about $36.6 trillion at the start of October 2008. The total world derivatives market has been estimated at about $791 trillion face or nominal value, 11 times the size of the entire world economy. The value of the derivatives market, because it is stated in terms of notional values, cannot be directly compared to a stock or a fixed income security, which traditionally refers to an actual value. Moreover, the vast majority of derivatives 'cancel' each other out (i.e., a derivative 'bet' on an event occurring is offset by a comparable derivative 'bet' on the event not occurring). Many such relatively illiquid securities are valued as marked to model, rather than an actual market price. The stocks are listed and traded on stock exchanges which are entities of a corporation or mutual organization specialized in the business of bringing buyers and sellers of the organizations to a listing of stocks and securities together. The largest stock market in the United States, by market cap, is the New York Stock Exchange, NYSE. In Canada, the largest stock market is the Toronto Stock Exchange. Major European examples of stock exchanges include the London Stock Exchange, Paris Bourse, and the Deutsche Bourse (Frankfurt Stock Exchange). Asian examples include the Tokyo Stock Exchange, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, the Shanghai Stock Exchange, and the Bombay Stock Exchange. In Latin America, there are such exchanges as the BM&F Bovespa and the BMV.


Participants in the stock market range from small individual stock investors to large hedge fund traders, who can be based anywhere. Their orders usually end up with a professional at a stock exchange, who executes the order. Some exchanges are physical locations where transactions are carried out on a trading floor, by a method known as open outcry. This type of auction is used in stock exchanges and commodity exchanges where traders may enter "verbal" bids and offers simultaneously. The other type of stock exchange is a virtual kind, composed of a network of computers where trades are made electronically via traders. Actual trades are based on an auction market model where a potential buyer bids a specific price for a stock and a potential seller asks a specific price for the stock. (Buying or selling at market means you will accept any ask price or bid price for the stock, respectively.) When the bid and ask prices match, a sale takes place, on a first-come-first-served basis if there are multiple bidders or askers at a given price. The purpose of a stock exchange is to facilitate the exchange of securities between buyers and sellers, thus providing a marketplace (virtual or real). The exchanges provide real-time trading information on the listed securities, facilitating price discovery. The New York Stock Exchange is a physical exchange, also referred to as a listed exchange – only stocks listed with the exchange may be traded. Orders enter by way of exchange members and flow down to a floor broker, who goes to the floor trading post specialist for that stock to trade the order. The specialist's job is to match buy and sell orders using open outcry. If a spread exists, no trade immediately takes place—in this case the specialist should use his/her own resources (money or stock) to close the difference after his/her judged time. Once a trade has been made the details are reported on the "tape" and sent back to the brokerage firm, which then notifies the investor who placed the order. Although there is a significant amount of human contact in this process, computers play an important role, especially for socalled "program trading". The NASDAQ is a virtual listed exchange, where all of the trading is done over a computer network. The process is similar to the New York Stock Exchange. However, buyers and sellers are electronically matched. One or more NASDAQ market makers will always provide a bid and ask price at which they will always purchase or sell 'their' stock. The Paris Bourse, now part of Euro next, is an order-driven, electronic stock exchange. It was automated in the late 1980s. Prior to the 1980s, it consisted of an open outcry exchange. Stockbrokers met on the trading floor or the Palais Brongniart. In 1986, the CATS trading system was introduced, and the order matching process was fully automated. 9

From time to time, active trading (especially in large blocks of securities) have moved away from the 'active' exchanges. Securities firms, led by UBS AG, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Credit Suisse Group, already steer 12 percent of U.S. security trades away from the exchanges to their internal systems. That share probably will increase to 18 percent by 2010 as more investment banks bypass the NYSE and NASDAQ and pair buyers and sellers of securities themselves, according to data compiled by Bostonbased Aite Group LLC, a brokerage-industry consultant. Now that computers have eliminated the need for trading floors like the Big Board's, the balance of power in equity markets is shifting. By bringing more orders in-house, where clients can move big blocks of stock anonymously, brokers pay the exchanges less in fees and capture a bigger share of the $11 billion a year that institutional investors pay in trading commissions as well as the surplus of the century had taken place.

Market participants:

A few decades ago, worldwide, buyers and sellers were individual investors, such as wealthy businessmen, usually with long family histories to particular corporations. Over time, markets have become more "institutionalized"; buyers and sellers are largely institutions (e.g., pension funds, insurance companies, mutual funds, index funds, exchange-traded funds, hedge funds, investor groups, banks and various other financial institutions). The rise of the institutional investor has brought with it some improvements in market operations. Thus, the government was responsible for "fixed" (and exorbitant) fees being markedly reduced for the 'small' investor, but only after the large institutions had managed to break the brokers' solid front on fees. (They then went to 'negotiated' fees, but only for large institutions. However, corporate governance (at least in the West) has been very much adversely affected by the rise of (largely 'absentee') institutional 'owners'.


In 12th century France the courratiers de change were concerned with managing and regulating the debts of agricultural communities on behalf of the banks. Because these men also traded with debts, they could be called the first brokers. A common misbelief is that in late 13th century Bruges commodity traders gathered inside the house of a man called Van der Beurze, and in 1309 they became the "Brugse Beurse", institutionalizing what had been, until then, an informal meeting, but actually, the family Van der Beurze had a building in Antwerp where those gatherings occurred; the Van der Beurze had Antwerp, as most of the merchants of that period, as their primary place for trading. The idea quickly spread around Flanders and neighboring counties and "Beurzen" soon opened in Ghent and Amsterdam. In the middle of the 13th century, Venetian bankers began to trade in government securities. In 1351 the Venetian government outlawed spreading rumors intended to lower the price of government funds. Bankers in Pisa, Verona, Genoa and Florence also began trading in government securities during the 14th century. This was only possible because these were independent city states not ruled by a duke but a council of influential citizens. The Dutch later started joint stock companies, which let shareholders invest in business ventures and get a share of their profits – or losses. In 1602, the Dutch East India Company issued the first share on the Amsterdam Stock Exchange. It was the first company to issue stocks and bonds. The Amsterdam Stock Exchange (or Amsterdam Beurs) is also said to have been the first stock exchange to introduce continuous trade in the early 17th century. The Dutch "pioneered short selling, option trading, debt-equity swaps, merchant banking, unit trusts and other speculative instruments, much as we know them". There are now stock markets in virtually every developed and most developing economies, with the world's biggest market being in the United States, United Kingdom, Japan, India, China, Canada, Germany's (Frankfurt Stock Exchange), France, South Korea and the Netherlands.

Importance of stock market:
Function and purpose

The stock market is one of the most important sources for companies to raise money. This allows businesses to be publicly traded, or raise additional capital for expansion by selling shares of ownership of the company in a public market. The liquidity that an exchange provides affords investors 10

the ability to quickly and easily sell securities. This is an attractive feature of investing in stocks, compared to other less liquid investments such as real estate. History has shown that the price of shares and other assets is an important part of the dynamics of economic activity, and can influence or be an indicator of social mood. An economy where the stock market is on the rise is considered to be an up-and-coming economy. In fact, the stock market is often considered the primary indicator of a country's economic strength and development. Rising share prices, for instance, tend to be associated with increased business investment and vice versa. Share prices also affect the wealth of households and their consumption. Therefore, central banks tend to keep an eye on the control and behavior of the stock market and, in general, on the smooth operation of financial system functions. Financial stability is the raison d'être of central banks. Exchanges also act as the clearinghouse for each transaction, meaning that they collect and deliver the shares, and guarantee payment to the seller of a security. This eliminates the risk to an individual buyer or seller that the counterparty could default on the transaction. The smooth functioning of all these activities facilitates economic growth in that lower costs and enterprise risks promote the production of goods and services as well as employment. In this way the financial system contributes to increased prosperity.

Relation of the stock market to the modern financial system

The financial system in most western countries has undergone a remarkable transformation. One feature of this development is disintermediation. A portion of the funds involved in saving and financing, flows directly to the financial markets instead of being routed via the traditional bank lending and deposit operations. The general public's heightened interest in investing in the stock market, either directly or through mutual funds, has been an important component of this process. Statistics show that in recent decades shares have made up an increasingly large proportion of households' financial assets in many countries. In the 1970s, in Sweden, deposit accounts and other very liquid assets with little risk made up almost 60 percent of households' financial wealth, compared to less than 20 percent in the 2000s. The major part of this adjustment in financial portfolios has gone directly to shares but a good deal now takes the form of various kinds of institutional investment for groups of individuals, e.g., pension funds, mutual funds, hedge funds, insurance investment of premiums, etc. The trend towards forms of saving with a higher risk has been accentuated by new rules for most funds and insurance, permitting a higher proportion of shares to bonds. Similar tendencies are to be found in other industrialized countries. In all developed economic systems, such as the European Union, the United States, Japan and other developed nations, the trend has been the same: saving has moved away from traditional (government insured) bank deposits to more risky securities of one sort or another.

The behavior of the stock market:

From experience we know that investors may 'temporarily' move financial prices away from their long term aggregate price 'trends'. (Positive or up trends are referred to as bull markets; negative or down trends are referred to as bear markets.) Over-reactions may occur—so that excessive optimism (euphoria) may drive prices unduly high or excessive pessimism may drive prices unduly low. Economists continue to debate whether financial markets are 'generally' efficient. According to one interpretation of the efficient-market hypothesis (EMH), only changes in fundamental factors, such as the outlook for margins, profits or dividends, ought to affect share prices beyond the short term, where random 'noise' in the system may prevail. (But this largely theoretic academic viewpoint—known as 'hard' EMH—also predicts that little or no trading should take place, contrary to fact, since prices are already at or near equilibrium, having priced in all public knowledge.) The 'hard' efficient-market hypothesis is sorely tested by such events as the stock market crash in 1987, when the Dow Jones index plummeted 22.6 percent—the largest-ever one-day fall in the United States. This event demonstrated that share prices can fall dramatically even though, to this day, it is impossible to fix a generally agreed upon definite cause: a thorough search failed to detect any 'reasonable' development that might have accounted for the crash. (But note that such events are predicted to occur strictly by chance, although very rarely.) It seems also to be the case more generally that many price movements (beyond that which are predicted to occur 'randomly') are not occasioned by new 11

information; a study of the fifty largest one-day share price movements in the United States in the postwar period seems to confirm this. However, a 'soft' EMH has emerged which does not require that prices remain at or near equilibrium, but only that market participants not be able to systematically profit from any momentary market 'inefficiencies'. Moreover, while EMH predicts that all price movement (in the absence of change in fundamental information) is random (i.e., non-trending), many studies have shown a marked tendency for the stock market to trend over time periods of weeks or longer. Various explanations for such large and apparently non-random price movements have been promulgated. For instance, some research has shown that changes in estimated risk, and the use of certain strategies, such as stop-loss limits and Value at Risk limits, theoretically could cause financial markets to overreact. But the best explanation seems to be that the distribution of stock market prices is non-Gaussian (in which case EMH, in any of its current forms, would not be strictly applicable). Other research has shown that psychological factors may result in exaggerated (statistically anomalous) stock price movements (contrary to EMH which assumes such behaviors 'cancel out'). Psychological research has demonstrated that people are predisposed to 'seeing' patterns, and often will perceive a pattern in what is, in fact, just noise. (Something like seeing familiar shapes in clouds or ink blots.) In the present context this means that a succession of good news items about a company may lead investors to overreact positively (unjustifiably driving the price up). A period of good returns also boosts the investor's self-confidence, reducing his (psychological) risk threshold. Another phenomenon—also from psychology—that works against an objective assessment is group thinking. As social animals, it is not easy to stick to an opinion that differs markedly from that of a majority of the group. An example with which one may be familiar is the reluctance to enter a restaurant that is empty; people generally prefer to have their opinion validated by those of others in the group. In one paper the authors draw an analogy with gambling. In normal times the market behaves like a game of roulette; the probabilities are known and largely independent of the investment decisions of the different players. In times of market stress, however, the game becomes more like poker (herding behavior takes over). The players now must give heavy weight to the psychology of other investors and how they are likely to react psychologically. The stock market, as with any other business, is quite unforgiving of amateurs. Inexperienced investors rarely get the assistance and support they need. In the period running up to the 1987 crash, less than 1 percent of the analyst's recommendations had been to sell (and even during the 2000–2002 bear market, the average did not rise above 5 %). In the run up to 2000, the media amplified the general euphoria, with reports of rapidly rising share prices and the notion that large sums of money could be quickly earned in the so-called new economy stock market. (And later amplified the gloom which descended during the 2000–2002 bear market, so that by summer of 2002, predictions of a DOW average below 5000 were quite common.)  Irrational behavior Sometimes the market seems to react irrationally to economic or financial news, even if that news is likely to have no real effect on the fundamental value of securities itself. But this may be more apparent than real, since often such news has been anticipated, and a counter reaction may occur if the news is better (or worse) than expected. Therefore, the stock market may be swayed in either direction by press releases, rumors, euphoria and mass panic; but generally only briefly, as more experienced investors (especially the hedge funds) quickly rally to take advantage of even the slightest, momentary hysteria. Over the short-term, stocks and other securities can be battered or buoyed by any number of fast market-changing events, making the stock market behavior difficult to predict. Emotions can drive prices up and down, people are generally not as rational as they think, and the reasons for buying and selling are generally obscure. Behaviorists argue that investors often behave 'irrationally' when making investment decisions thereby incorrectly pricing securities, which causes market inefficiencies, which, in turn, are opportunities to make money. However, the whole notion of EMH is that these non-rational reactions to information cancel out, leaving the prices of stocks rationally determined. The Dow Jones Industrial Average biggest gain in one day was 936.42 points or 11 percent, this occurred on October 13, 2008. 12


A stock market crash is often defined as a sharp dip in share prices of equities listed on the stock exchanges. In parallel with various economic factors, a reason for stock market crashes is also due to panic and investing public's loss of confidence. Often, stock market crashes end speculative economic bubbles. There have been famous stock market crashes that have ended in the loss of billions of dollars and wealth destruction on a massive scale. An increasing number of people are involved in the stock market, especially since the social security and retirement plans are being increasingly privatized and linked to stocks and bonds and other elements of the market. There have been a number of famous stock market crashes like the Wall Street Crash of 1929, the stock market crash of 1973–4, the Black Monday of 1987, the Dot-com bubble of 2000, and the Stock Market Crash of 2008. One of the most famous stock market crashes started October 24, 1929 on Black Thursday. The Dow Jones Industrial lost 50 % during this stock market crash. It was the beginning of the Great Depression. Another famous crash took place on October 19, 1987 – Black Monday. The crash began in Hong Kong and quickly spread around the world. By the end of October, stock markets in Hong Kong had fallen 45.5 %, Australia 41.8 %, Spain 31 %, the United Kingdom 26.4 %, the United States 22.68 %, and Canada 22.5 %. Black Monday itself was the largest one-day percentage decline in stock market history – the Dow Jones fell by 22.6 % in a day. The names ―Black Monday‖ and ―Black Tuesday‖ are also used for October 28–29, 1929, which followed Terrible Thursday—the starting day of the stock market crash in 1929. The crash in 1987 raised some puzzles-–main news and events did not predict the catastrophe and visible reasons for the collapse were not identified. This event raised questions about many important assumptions of modern economics, namely, the theory of rational human conduct, the theory of market equilibrium and the hypothesis of market efficiency. For some time after the crash, trading in stock exchanges worldwide was halted, since the exchange computers did not perform well owing to enormous quantity of trades being received at one time. This halt in trading allowed the Federal Reserve System and central banks of other countries to take measures to control the spreading of worldwide financial crisis. In the United States the SEC introduced several new measures of control into the stock market in an attempt to prevent a re-occurrence of the events of Black Monday. Computer systems were upgraded in the stock exchanges to handle larger trading volumes in a more accurate and controlled manner. The SEC modified the margin requirements in an attempt to lower the volatility of common stocks, stock options and the futures market. The New York Stock Exchange and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange introduced the concept of a circuit breaker. The circuit breaker halts trading if the Dow declines a prescribed number of points for a prescribed amount of time.

Stock market index:

The movements of the prices in a market or section of a market are captured in price indices called stock market indices, of which there are many, e.g., the S&P, the FTSE and the Euronext indices. Such indices are usually market capitalization weighted, with the weights reflecting the contribution of the stock to the index. The constituents of the index are reviewed frequently to include/exclude stocks in order to reflect the changing business environment.

Derivative instruments:

Financial innovation has brought many new financial instruments whose pay-offs or values depend on the prices of stocks. Some examples are exchange-traded funds (ETFs), stock index and stock options, equity swaps, single-stock futures, and stock index futures. These last two may be traded on futures exchanges (which are distinct from stock exchanges—their history traces back to commodities futures exchanges), or traded over-the-counter. As all of these products are only derived from stocks, they are sometimes considered to be traded in a (hypothetical) derivatives market, rather than the (hypothetical) stock market.

Leveraged strategies:

Stock that a trader does not actually own may be traded using short selling; margin buying may be used to purchase stock with borrowed funds; or, derivatives may be used to control large 13

blocks of stocks for a much smaller amount of money than would be required by outright purchase or sale.

Short selling:

In short selling, the trader borrows stock (usually from his brokerage which holds its clients' shares or its own shares on account to lend to short sellers) then sells it on the market, hoping for the price to fall. The trader eventually buys back the stock, making money if the price fell in the meantime and losing money if it rose. Exiting a short position by buying back the stock is called "covering a short position." This strategy may also be used by unscrupulous traders in illiquid or thinly traded markets to artificially lower the price of a stock. Hence most markets either prevent short selling or place restrictions on when and how a short sale can occur. The practice of naked shorting is illegal in most (but not all) stock markets.

Margin buying:

In margin buying, the trader borrows money (at interest) to buy a stock and hopes for it to rise. Most industrialized countries have regulations that require that if the borrowing is based on collateral from other stocks the trader owns outright, it can be a maximum of a certain percentage of those other stocks' value. In the United States, the margin requirements have been 50 % for many years (that is, if you want to make a $1000 investment, you need to put up $500, and there is often a maintenance margin below the $500). A margin call is made if the total value of the investor's account cannot support the loss of the trade. (Upon a decline in the value of the margined securities additional funds may be required to maintain the account's equity, and with or without notice the margined security or any others within the account may be sold by the brokerage to protect its loan position. The investor is responsible for any shortfall following such forced sales.) Regulation of margin requirements (by the Federal Reserve) was implemented after the Crash of 1929. Before that, speculators typically only needed to put up as little as 10 percent (or even less) of the total investment represented by the stocks purchased. Other rules may include the prohibition of free-riding: putting in an order to buy stocks without paying initially (there is normally a three-day grace period for delivery of the stock), but then selling them (before the three-days are up) and using part of the proceeds to make the original payment (assuming that the value of the stocks has not declined in the interim).

Investment strategies:

One of the many things people always want to know about the stock market is, "How do I make money investing?" There are many different approaches; two basic methods are classified as either fundamental analysis or technical analysis. Fundamental analysis refers to analyzing companies by their financial statements found in SEC Filings, business trends, general economic conditions, etc. Technical analysis studies price actions in markets through the use of charts and quantitative techniques to attempt to forecast price trends regardless of the company's financial prospects. One example of a technical strategy is the Trend following method, used by John W. Henry and Ed Seykota, which uses price patterns, utilizes strict money management and is also rooted in risk control and diversification. Additionally, many choose to invest via the index method. In this method, one holds a weighted or unweighted portfolio consisting of the entire stock market or some segment of the stock market (such as the S&P 500 or Wilshire 5000). The principal aim of this strategy is to maximize diversification, minimize taxes from too frequent trading, and ride the general trend of the stock market (which, in the U.S., has averaged nearly 10 %%/year, compounded annually, since World War II).


According to much national or state legislation, a large array of fiscal obligations are taxed for capital gains. Taxes are charged by the state over the transactions, dividends and capital gains on the stock market, in particular in the stock exchanges. However, these fiscal obligations may vary from jurisdictions to jurisdictions because, among other reasons, it could be assumed that taxation is already incorporated into the stock price through the different taxes companies pay to the state, or that tax free stock market operations are useful to boost economic growth.


The Sensex is an "index". What is an index? An index is basically an indicator. It gives you a general idea about whether most of the stocks have gone up or most of the stocks have gone down. The Sensex is an indicator of all the major companies of the BSE. The Nifty is an indicator of all the major companies of the NSE. If the Sensex goes up, it means that the prices of the stocks of most of the major companies on the BSE have gone up. If the Sensex goes down, this tells you that the stock price of most of the major stocks on the BSE have gone down. Just like the Sensex represents the top stocks of the BSE, the Nifty represents the top stocks of the NSE. Just in case you are confused, the BSE, is the Bombay Stock Exchange and the NSE is the National Stock Exchange. The BSE is situated at Bombay and the NSE is situated at Delhi. These are the major stock exchanges in the country. There are other stock exchanges like the Calcutta Stock Exchange etc. but they are not as popular as the BSE and the NSE.Most of the stock trading in the country is done though the BSE & the NSE. Besides Sensex and the Nifty there are many other indexes. There is an index that gives you an idea about whether the mid-cap stocks go up and down. This is called the ―BSE Mid-cap Index‖. There are many other types of indexes. There is an index for the metal stocks. There is an index for the FMCG stocks. There is an index for the automobile stocks etc.

Sensex refers to "Sensitivity Index" and is generally associated with the stock market indices. There are currently two major stock exchanges in India, The Bombay Stock exchange (BSE) and The National Stock Exchange (NSE). The 'BSE SENSEX' is a value-weighted index composed of 30 stocks and was started in January 1, 1986. The Sensex is regarded as the pulse of the domestic stock markets in India. It consists of the 30 largest and most actively traded stocks, representative of various sectors, on the Bombay Stock Exchange. These companies account for around fifty per cent of the market capitalization of the BSE. The base value of the sensex is 100 on April 1, 1979, and the base year of BSE-SENSEX is 1978-79. The BSE SENSEX consistes of the following companies: 15

Bajaj Auto Limited, Bharti Airtel Ltd., Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd., Cipla Ltd., DLF Ltd., HDFC, HDFC Bank Ltd., Hero Honda Motors Ltd., Hindalco Industries Ltd., Hindustan Unilever Ltd., ICICI Bank Ltd., Infosys Technologies Ltd., ITC Ltd., Jaiprakash Associates Ltd., Jindal Steel & Power Ltd., Larsen & Toubro Ltd., Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd., Maruti Suzuki India Ltd., NTPC Ltd., ONGC Ltd., Reliance Industries Ltd., Reliance Communications Ltd., Reliance Infrastructure Ltd., State Bank of India, Sterlite Industries (India) Ltd., Tata Motors Ltd., Tata Power Company Ltd., Tata Steel Ltd., Tata Consultancy Services Ltd., Wipro Ltd., At regular intervals, the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) authorities review and modify its composition to be sure it reflects current market conditions. The index is calculated based on a free float capitalization method; a variation of the market cap method. Instead of using a company's outstanding shares it uses its float, or shares that are readily available for trading. The free-float method, therefore, does not include restricted stocks, such as those held by promoters, government and strategic investors. Initially, the index was calculated based on the ‗full market capitalization‘ method. However this was shifted to the free float method with effect from September 1, 2003. Globally, the free float market capitalization is regarded as the industry best practice. As per free float capitalization methodology, the level of index at any point of time reflects the free float market value of 30 component stocks relative to a base period. The Market Capitalization of a company is determined by multiplying the price of its stock by the number of shares issued by the company. This Market capitalization is multiplied by a free float factor to determine the free float market capitalization. Free float factor is also referred as adjustment factor. Free float factor represent the percentage of shares that are readily available for trading. The Calculation of Sensex involves dividing the free float market capitalization of 30 companies in the index by a number called Index divisor. The Divisor is the only link to original base period value of the Sensex. It keeps the index comparable over time and is the adjustment point for all Index adjustments arising out of corporate actions, replacement of scrips, etc. The index has increased by over ten times from June 1990 to the present. Using information from April 1979 onwards, the long-run rate of return on the BSE Sensex works out to be 18.6% per annum, which translates to roughly 9% per annum after compensating for inflation.

The National Stock Exchange (NSE) is a stock exchange located at Mumbai, India. It is the 10th largest stock exchange in the world by market capitalization and largest in India by daily turnover and number of trades, for both equities and derivative trading. NSE has a market capitalization of around US$1.59 trillion and over 1,552 listings as of December 2010. Though a number of other exchanges exist, NSE and the Bombay Stock Exchange are the two most significant stock exchanges in India, and between them are responsible for the vast majority of share transactions. The NSE's key index is the S&P CNX Nifty, known as the NSE NIFTY (National Stock Exchange Fifty), an index of fifty major stocks weighted by market capitalization. NSE is mutually-owned by a set of leading financial institutions, banks, insurance companies and other financial intermediaries in India but its ownership and management operate as separate entities. There are at least 2 foreign investors NYSE Euronext and Goldman Sachs who have taken a stake in the NSE. As of 2006, the NSE VSAT terminals, 2799 in total, cover more than 1500 cities across India. NSE is the third largest Stock Exchange in the world in terms of the number of trades in equities. It is the second fastest growing stock exchange in the world with a recorded growth of 16.6%. NIFTY is an Index computed from performance of top stocks from different sectors listed on NSE (National stock exchange). NIFTY consists of 50 companies from 24 different sectors. NIFTY stands for National Stock Exchange‘s Fifty. The companies which form index of NIFTY may vary from time to time based on many factors considered by NSE. NIFTY is for NSE similarly SENSEX is for BSE.


Some mutual funds use NIFTY index as a benchmark meaning the mutual funds‘ performance is compared against the performance of NIFTY. On NSE there are futures and options available for trading with NIFTY as underlying index. India Index Services and Products Ltd. (IISL) owns NIFTY. IISL is a joint venture of NSE and CRISIL. CRISIL is a subsidiary of Standard and Poor (S&P). And so NIFTY is also called as S&P CNX NIFTY.

  

The stocks were often described as "one-decision", as they were viewed as extremely stable, even over long periods of time. The most common characteristic by the constituents were solid earnings growth for which these stocks were assigned extraordinary high price-earnings ratios. Fifty times earnings was not uncommon. NIFTY means National Index for Fifty.

The National Stock Exchange of India was promoted by leading financial institutions at the behest of the Government of India, and was incorporated in November 1992 as a tax-paying company. In April 1993, it was recognized as a stock exchange under the Securities Contracts (Regulation) Act, 1956. NSE commenced operations in the Wholesale Debt Market (WDM) segment in June 1994. The Capital market (Equities) segment of the NSE commenced operations in November 1994, while operations in the Derivatives segment commenced in June 2000.


NSE has remained in the forefront of modernization of India's capital and financial markets, and its pioneering efforts include:  Being the first national, anonymous, electronic limit order book (LOB) exchange to trade securities in India. Since the success of the NSE, existent market and new market structures have followed the "NSE" model.  Setting up the first clearing corporation "National Securities Clearing Corporation Ltd." in India. NSCCL was a landmark in providing innovation on all spot equity market (and later, derivatives market) trades in India.  Co-promoting and setting up of National Securities Depository Limited, first depository in India  Setting up of S&P CNX Nifty.  NSE pioneered commencement of Internet Trading in February 2000, which led to the wide popularization of the NSE in the broker community.  Being the first exchange that, in 1996, proposed exchange traded derivatives, particularly on an equity index, in India. After four years of policy and regulatory debate and formulation, the NSE was permitted to start trading equity derivatives  Being the first and the only exchange to trade GOLD ETFs (exchange traded funds) in India.  NSE has also launched the NSE-CNBC-TV18 media centre in association with CNBC-TV18.  NSE.IT Limited, setup in 1999, is a 100% subsidiary of the National Stock Exchange of India. A Vertical Specialist Enterprise, NSE.IT offers end-to-end Information Technology (IT) products, solutions and services.

      

Currently, NSE has the following major segments of the capital market:

Equity Futures and Options Retail Debt Market Wholesale Debt Market Currency futures MUTUAL FUND STOCKS LENDING & BORROWING August 2008 Currency derivatives were introduced in India with the launch of Currency Futures in USD INR by NSE. Currently it has also launched currency futures in EURO, POUND & YEN. 17

Interest Rate Futures was introduced for the first time in India by NSE on 31 August 2009, exactly after one year of the launch of Currency Futures. NSE became the first stock exchange to get approval for Interest rate futures as recommended by SEBI-RBI committee, on 31 August 2009, a futures contract based on 7% 10 Year GOI bond (NOTIONAL) was launched with quarterly maturities.


NSE's normal trading sessions are conducted from 9:15 am India Time to 3:30 pm India Time on all days of the week except Saturdays, Sundays and Official Holidays declared by the Exchange (or by the Government of India) in advance. The exchange, in association with BSE (Bombay Stock Exchange Ltd.), is thinking of revising its timings from 9.00 am India Time to 5.00 pm India Time. There were System Testing going on and opinions, suggestions or feedback on the New Proposed Timings are being invited from the brokers across India. And finally on 18 November 2009 regulator decided to drop their ambitious goal of longest Asia Trading Hours due to strong opposition from its members. On 16 December 2009, NSE announced that it would advance the market opening to 9:00 am from 18 December 2009. So NSE trading hours will be from 9:00 am till 3:30 pm India Time. However, on 17 December 2009, after strong protests from brokers, the Exchange decided to postpone the change in trading hours till 4 Jan 2010. NSE new market timing from 4 Jan 2010 is 9:00 am till 3:30 pm India Time.

    

NSE also set up as index services firm known as India Index Services & Products Limited (IISL) and has launched several stock indices, including: S&P CNX Nifty(Standard & Poor's CRISIL NSE Index) CNX Nifty Junior CNX 100 (= S&P CNX Nifty + CNX Nifty Junior) S&P CNX 500 (= CNX 100 + 400 major players across 72 industries) CNX Midcap (introduced on 18 July 2005 replacing CNX Midcap 200)

Exchange Traded Funds on NSE:

NSE has a number of exchange. These are typically index funds and GOLD ETFs. Some of the popular etf's on NSE are.  NIFTYBEES - ETF based on NIFTY index Nifty BEES Live quote  GoldBees - ETF based on Gold prices. Tracks the price of Gold. Each unit is equivalent to 1 gm of gold and bears the price of 1gm of gold.  BankBees - ETF that tracks the CNX Bank Index.


NSE also conducts online examination and awards certification, under its programmes of NSE's Certification in Financial Markets (NCFM). Currently, certifications are available in 19 modules, covering different sectors of financial and capital markets. Branches of the NSE are located throughout India.


 India is an ` informationally' weak market.  Boosting capital market demands restoring the confidence of lay investors who have been beaten down by repeated scams.  Progressively softening interest rates and an under performing economy have eroded investment options, and require enhanced investing skills.

Mission of SEBI:

Securities & Exchange Board of India (SEBI) formed under the SEBI Act, with the prime objective of  Protecting the interests of investors in securities,  Promoting the development of, and  Regulating, the securities market and for matters connected therewith or incidental


Functions of SEBI:
Section 11 of the Securities and Exchange Board of India Act. 19

Regulation Of Business In The Stock Exchanges A review of the market operations, organizational structure and administrative control of the exchange  All stock exchanges are required to be Body Corporates  The exchange provides a fair, equitable and growing market to investors.  The exchange‘s organisation, systems and practices are in accordance with the Securities Contracts (Regulation) Act (SC(R) Act), 1956 Registration And Regulation Of The Working Of Intermediaries



          

 

regulates the working of the depositories [participants], custodians of securities, foreign institutional investors, credit rating agencies and such other intermediaries. Registration And Regulation Of Mutual Funds, Venture Capital Funds & Collective Investment Schemes AMFI-Self Regulatory Organization-'promoting and protecting the interest of mutual funds and their unit-holders, increasing public awareness of mutual funds, and serving the investors' interest by defining and maintaining high ethical and professional standards in the mutual funds industry'. Every mutual fund must be registered with SEBI and registration is granted only where SEBI is satisfied with the background of the fund. SEBI has the authority to inspect the books of accounts, records and documents of a mutual fund, its trustees, AMC and custodian where it deems it necessary. SEBI (Mutual Funds) Regulations, 1996 lays down the provisions for the appointment of the trustees and their obligations Every new scheme launched by a mutual fund needs to be filed with SEBI and SEBI reviews the document in regard to the disclosures contained in such documents. Regulations have been laid down regarding listing of funds, refund procedures, transfer procedures, disclosures, guaranteeing returns etc SEBI has also laid down advertisement code to be followed by a mutual fund in making any publicity regarding a scheme and its performance SEBI has prescribed norms / restrictions for investment management with a view to minimize / reduce undue investment risks. SEBI also has the authority to initiate penal actions against an erring MF. In case of a change in the controlling interest of an asset management company, investors should be given at least 30 days time to exercise their exit option. Promoting & Regulating Self Regulatory Organizations In order for the SRO to effectively execute its responsibilities, it would be required to be structured, organized, managed and controlled such that it retains its independence, while continuing to perform a genuine market development role Prohibiting Fraudulent And Unfair Trade Practices In The Securities Market SEBI is vested with powers to take action against these practices relating to securities market manipulation and misleading statements to induce sale/purchase of securities. Prohibition Of Insider Trading Stock Watch System, which has been put in place, surveillance over insider trading would be further strengthened. Investor Education And The Training Of Intermediaries 20

  

SEBI distributed the booklet titled ―A Quick Reference Guide for Investors‖ to the investors SEBI also issued a series of advertisement /public notices in national as well as regional newspapers to educate and caution the investors about the risks associated with the investments in collective investment schemes SEBI has also issued messages in the interest of investors on National Channel and Regional Stations on Doordarshan. Inspection And Inquiries Regulating Substantial Acquisition Of Shares And Take-overs Performing Such Functions And Exercising Such Powers Under The Provisions Of The Securities Contracts (Regulation) Act, 1956 As May Be Delegated To It By The Central Government; Levying Fees Or Other Charges For Carrying Out The Purposes Of This Section Conducting Research For The Above Purposes

Vetting by SEBI:
A company cannot come out with public issue unless Draft Prospectus is filed with SEBI. Prospectus is a document by way of which the investor gets all the information pertaining to the company in which they are going to invest. It gives the detailed information about the Company, Promoter / Directors, group companies, Capital Structure, Terms of the present issue etc. A company cannot file prospectus directly with SEBI. It has to be filed through a merchant banker. After the preparation of prospectus, the merchant banker along with the due diligence certificates and other compliances and sends the same to SEBI for Vetting. SEBI on receiving the same scrutinizes it and may suggest changes within 21 days of receipt of prospectus The company can come out with a public issue any time within 180 days from the date of the letter from SEBI or if no letter is received from SEBI, within 180 days from the date of expiry of 21 days of submission of prospectus with SEBI.

  

Corporate Governance:
The listing requirements, are ensured in two ways. Corporates are expected to submit compliance reports as per clause 49 of the listing agreement They are also required to provide details of the same in their annual reports.

       

Initial Public Offer:
In case of an Initial Public Offer (IPO) i.e. public issue by unlisted company, the promoters have to necessarily offer at least 20% of the post issue capital. In case of public issues by listed companies, the promoters shall participate either to the extent of 20% of the proposed issue or ensure post-issue share holding to the extent of 20% of the postissue capital. In case of any issue of capital to the public the minimum contribution of promoters shall be locked in for a period of 3 years, both for an IPO and Public Issue by listed companies. In case of an IPO, if the promoters‘ contribution in the proposed issue exceeds the required minimum contribution, such excess contribution shall also be locked in for a period of one year. In case of a public issue by a listed company, participation by promoters in the proposed public issue in excess of the required minimum percentage shall also be locked-in for a period of one year as per the lock-in provisions as specified in Guidelines on Preferential issue. paid up share capital prior to IPO and shares issued on a firm allotment basis along with issue shall be locked-in for a period of one year from the date of allotment in public issue. In case of over-subscription in a fixed price issue the allotment is done in marketable lots, on a proportionate basis In case of a book building issue, allotment to Qualified Institutional Buyers and Non-Institutional buyers are done on a discretionary basis. Allotment to retail investors is done on a proportionate basis


all steps for completion of the necessary formalities for listing and commencement of trading at all stock exchanges where the securities are to be listed are taken within 7 working days of finalization of basis of allotment.

   

Evaluation Of SEBI’s Performance:
Enhancing disclosures In most case only the minimum information required under the Companies Act is made available The manner in which the swap ratio is fixed and what the management thinks of the same is largely taken for granted. valuation reports are made available for inspection, but access is not easy for all investors.

  

Change In Market:
The complete transformation of the trading, clearing and settlement infrastructure Dramatic transformation to a paperless market and transparent trading system. All trades on the National Stock Exchange are settled in demat (paperless mode). By also moving towards rolling settlement (albeit after a considerable and unnecessary delay), cutting the settlement cycle and now going forward towards a T+1 settlement system, SEBI has made the markets much safer for investors

Risk Management System:

SEBI has taken several measures to improve the integrity of the secondary market. Legislative and regulatory changes have facilitated the corporatization of stockbrokers. Capital adequacy norms have been prescribed and are being enforced. A mark-to-market margin and intraday trading limit have also been imposed. Further, the stock exchanges have put in place circuit breakers, which are applied in times of excessive volatility. The disclosure of short sales and long purchases is now required at the end of the day to reduce price volatility and further enhance the integrity of the secondary market. Mark-to-market margin & intraday limit Under the current clearing and settlement system, if an Indian investor buys and subsequently sells the same number of shares of stock during a settlement period, or sells and subsequently buys, it is not necessary to take or deliver the shares. The difference between the selling and buying prices can be paid or received. In other words, the squaring-off of the trading position during the same settlement period results in non delivery of the shares that the investor traded. A short-term and speculative investment is thus possible at a relatively low cost. FIIs and domestic institutional investors are, however, not permitted to trade without delivery, since non delivery transactions are limited only to individual investors. One of SEBI‘s primary concerns is the risk of settlement chaos that may be caused by an increasing number of non delivery transactions as the stock market becomes excessively speculative. Accordingly, SEBI has introduced a daily mark-to-market margin and intraday trading limit. The daily mark-to-market margin is a margin on a broker‘s daily position. The intraday trading limit is the limit to a broker‘s intraday trading volume. Every broker is subject to these requirements. Each stock exchange may take any other measures to ensure the safety of the market. BSE and NSE impose on members a more stringent daily margin, including one based on concentration of business. A daily mark-to-market margin is 100 percent of the notional loss of the stockbroker for every stock, calculated as the difference between buying or selling price and the closing price of that stock at the end of that day. However, there is a threshold limit of 25 percent of the base minimum capital plus additional capital kept with the stock exchange or Rs1 million, whichever is lower. Until the notional loss exceeds the threshold limit, the margin is not payable. This margin is payable by a stockbroker to the stock exchange in cash or as a bank guarantee from a scheduled commercial bank, on a net basis. It will be released on the pay-in day for the settlement period. The margin money is held by the exchange for 612 days. This costs the broker about 0.4-1.2 percent of the notional loss, assuming that the broker‘s funding cost is about 24-36 percent (Endo 1998). Thus, speculative trading without the delivery of shares is no longer cost-free. Each broker‘s trading volume during a day is not allowed to exceed the intraday trading limit. This limit is 33.3 times the base minimum capital deposited with the exchange on a gross basis, i.e., purchase plus sale. In the event of brokers wishing to exceed this limit, they have to deposit additional capital with the exchange and this cannot be withdrawn for six months. Circuit breaker 22

SEBI has imposed price limits for stocks whose market prices are above Rs10 up to Rs20, a daily price change limit and weekly price change limit of 25 percent. BSE imposes price limits as a circuit breaker system to maintain the orderly trading of shares on the exchange. BSE‘s computerized trading system rejects buy or sell orders of a stock at prices outside the price limits. The daily price limit of a stock is measured from the stock‘s closing price in the previous trading session. The weekly price limit is based on its closing price of the last trading in the previous week, usually its closing price on the previous Friday.


Short sales & long purchases SEBI regulates short selling in the stock market by requiring all stock exchanges to enforce reporting by members of their net short sale and long purchase positions in each stock at the end of each trading day.

The Wall Street Crash of 1929 (October 1929), also known as the Great Crash, and the Stock Market Crash of 1929, was the most devastating stock market crash in the history of the United States of America, taking into consideration the full extent and duration of its fallout. The crash signaled the beginning of the 12-year Great Depression that affected all the Western industrialized countries and that 23

did not end in the United States until the onset of American mobilization for World War II at the end of 1941.


The Roaring Twenties, the decade that led up to the Crash, was a time of wealth and excess. Despite caution of the dangers of speculation, many believed that the market could sustain high price levels. Shortly before the crash, economist Irving Fisher famously proclaimed, "Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau." However, the optimism and financial gains of the great bull market were shattered on "Black Tuesday", October 29, 1929, when share prices on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) collapsed. Stock prices plummeted on that day, and continued to fall at an unprecedented rate for a full month. The October 1929 crash came during a period of declining real estate values in the United States (which peaked in 1925) near the beginning of a chain of events that led to the Great Depression, a period of economic decline in the industrialized nations. In the days leading up to "Black Thursday" (called "Black Friday" in Europe due to the time difference) and "Black Tuesday" the following week, the market was severely unstable. Periods of selling and high volumes of trading were interspersed with brief periods of rising prices and recovery. Economist and author Jude Wanniski later correlated these swings with the prospects for passage of the Smoot–Hawley Tariff Act, which was then being debated in Congress. After the crash, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) partially recovered in November–December 1929 and early 1930, only to reverse and crash again, reaching a low point of the great bear market in 1932. On July 8, 1932, the Dow reached its lowest level of the 20th century and did not return to pre-1929 levels until November 1954. After a six-year run when the world saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average increase in value fivefold, prices peaked at 381.17 on September 3, 1929. The market then fell sharply for a month, losing 17% of its value on the initial leg down. Prices then recovered more than half of the losses over the next week, only to turn back down immediately afterward. The decline then accelerated into the so-called "Black Thursday", October 24, 1929. A then-record number of 12.9 million shares were traded on that day. At 1 p.m. on the same day (October 24), several leading Wall Street bankers met to find a solution to the panic and chaos on the trading floor. The meeting included Thomas W. Lamont, acting head of Morgan Bank; Albert Wiggin, head of the Chase National Bank; and Charles E. Mitchell, president of the National City Bank of New York. They chose Richard Whitney, vice president of the Exchange, to act on their behalf. With the bankers' financial resources behind him, Whitney placed a bid to purchase a large block of shares in U.S. Steel at a price well above the current market. As traders watched, Whitney then placed similar bids on other "blue chip" stocks. This tactic was similar to a tactic that ended the Panic of 1907, and succeeded in halting the slide that day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average recovered with a slight increase, closing with it down only 6.38 points for that day. In this case, however, the respite was only temporary. Over the weekend, the events were covered by the newspapers across the United States. On Monday, October 28, the first "Black Monday", more investors decided to get out of the market, and the slide continued with a record loss in the Dow for the day of 38 points, or 13%. The next day, "Black Tuesday", October 29, 1929, about 16 million shares were traded, and the Dow lost an additional 30 points. The volume on stocks traded on October 29, 1929 was "...a record that was not broken for nearly 40 years, in 1968". Author Richard M. Salsman wrote that "on October 29—amid rumors that U.S. President Herbert Hoover would not veto the pending Hawley-Smoot Tariff bill—stock prices crashed even further". William C. Durant joined with members of the Rockefeller family and other financial giants to buy large quantities of stocks in order to demonstrate to the public their confidence in the market, but their efforts failed to stop the slide. The DJIA lost another 12% that day. The ticker did not stop running until about 7:45 that evening. The market lost over $14 billion in value that day, bringing the loss for the week to $30 billion. Dow Jones Industrial Average for 10/28/1929 and 10/29/1929 Date Change % Change Close October 28, 1929 −38.33 −12.82 260.64 October 29, 1929 −30.57 −11.73 230.07 24

350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 JAN APR JUL OCT 1929 1930


An interim bottom occurred on November 13 with the Dow closing at 198.60 that day. The market recovered for several months from that point, with the Dow reaching a secondary closing peak (i.e., bear market rally) of 294.07 on April 17, 1930. The market embarked on a steady slide in April 1931 that did not end until 1932 when the Dow closed at an all-time low of 41.22 on July 8, concluding a shattering 89% decline from the peak. This was the lowest the stock market had been since the 19th century.

Economic fundamentals:

The crash followed a speculative boom that had taken hold in the late 1920s, which had led hundreds of thousands of Americans to invest heavily in the stock market. A significant number of them were borrowing money to buy more stocks. By August 1929, brokers were routinely lending small investors more than two thirds of the face value of the stocks they were buying. Over $8.5 billion was out on loan, more than the entire amount of currency circulating in the U.S. at the time. The rising share prices encouraged more people to invest; people hoped the share prices would rise further. Speculation thus fueled further rises and created an economic bubble. Because of margin buying, investors stood to lose large sums of money if the market turned down—or even failed to advance quickly enough. The average P/E (price to earnings) ratio of S&P Composite stocks was 32.6 in September 1929, clearly above historical norms. Most economists view this event as the most dramatic in modern economic history. On October 24, 1929, with the Dow just past its September 3 peak of 381.17, the market finally turned down, and panic selling started. In 1932, the Pecora Commission was established by the U.S. Senate to study the causes of the crash. The U.S. Congress passed the Glass-Steagall Act in 1933, which mandated a separation between commercial banks, which take deposits and extend loans, and investment banks, which underwrite, issue, and distribute stocks, bonds, and other securities. After the experience of the 1929 crash, stock markets around the world instituted measures to suspend trading in the event of rapid declines, claiming that the measures would prevent such panic sales. Even more severe than the crash of 1929, however, was the one-day crash of Black Monday, October 19, 1987, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 22.6%.

Effects and academic debate:

Together, the 1929 stock market crash and the Great Depression formed "...the biggest financial crisis of the 20th century." "The panic of October 1929 has come to serve as a symbol of the economic contraction that gripped the world during the next decade." "The crash of 1929 caused 'fear mixed with a vertiginous disorientation', but 'shock was quickly cauterized with denial, both official and 25

mass-delusional'." "The falls in share prices on October 24 and 29, 1929 ... were practically instantaneous in all financial markets, except Japan."The Wall Street Crash had a major impact on the U.S. and world economy, and it has been the source of intense academic debate—historical, economic and political— from its aftermath until the present day. "Some people believed that abuses by utility holding companies contributed to the Wall Street Crash of 1929 and the Depression that followed." "Many people blamed the crash on commercial banks that were too eager to put deposits at risk on the stock market." "The 1929 crash brought the Roaring Twenties shuddering to a halt." As "tentatively expressed" by "economic historian Charles Kindleberger", in 1929 there was no "...lender of last resort effectively present", which, if it had existed and were "properly exercised", would have been "key in shortening the business slowdown[s] that normally follows financial crises." The crash marked the beginning of widespread and long-lasting consequences for the United States. The main question is: Did the "'29 Crash spark The Depression?", or did it merely coincide with the bursting of a credit-inspired economic bubble? Only 16% of American households were invested in the stock market within the United States during the period leading up to the depression, suggesting that the crash carried somewhat less of a weight in causing the depression. However, the psychological effects of the crash reverberated across the nation as business became aware of the difficulties in securing capital markets investments for new projects and expansions. Business uncertainty naturally affects job security for employees, and as the American worker (the consumer) faced uncertainty with regards to income, naturally the propensity to consume declined. The decline in stock prices caused bankruptcies and severe macroeconomic difficulties including contraction of credit, business closures, firing of workers, bank failures, decline of the money supply, and other economic depressing events. The resultant rise of mass unemployment is seen as a result of the crash, although the crash is by no means the sole event that contributed to the depression. The Wall Street Crash is usually seen as having the greatest impact on the events that followed and therefore is widely regarded as signaling the downward economic slide that initiated the Great Depression. True or not, the consequences were dire for almost everybody. "Most academic experts agree on one aspect of the crash: It wiped out billions of dollars of wealth in one day, and this immediately depressed consumer buying." The failure set off a worldwide run on US gold deposits (i.e., the dollar), and forced the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates into the slump. Some 4,000 banks and other lenders ultimately failed. Also, the uptick rule, which "...allowed short selling only when the last tick in a stock's price was positive", "...was implemented after the 1929 market crash to prevent short sellers from driving the price of a stock down in a bear run." Economists and historians disagree as to what role the crash played in subsequent economic, social, and political events. The Economist argued in a 1998 article, "Briefly, the Depression did not start with the stock market crash." Nor was it clear at the time of the crash that a depression was starting. On November 23, 1929, The Economist asked: "Can a very serious Stock Exchange collapse produce a serious setback to industry when industrial production is for the most part in a healthy and balanced condition? ... Experts are agreed that there must be some setback, but there is not yet sufficient evidence to prove that it will be long or that it need go to the length of producing a general industrial depression." But The Economist cautioned: "Some bank failures, no doubt, are also to be expected. In the circumstances will the banks have any margin left for financing commercial and industrial enterprises or will they not? The position of the banks is without doubt the key to the situation, and what this is going to be cannot be properly assessed until the dust has cleared away." Many academics see the Wall Street Crash of 1929 as part of a historical process that was a part of the new theories of boom and bust. According to economists such as Joseph Schumpeter and Nikolai Kondratieff the crash was merely a historical event in the continuing process known as economic cycles. The impact of the crash was merely to increase the speed at which the cycle proceeded to its next level.

The financial crisis from 2007 to the present is considered by many economists to be the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression of the 1930s. It was triggered by a liquidity shortfall in the United States banking system, and has resulted in the collapse of large financial institutions, the bailout of banks by national governments, and downturns in stock markets around the world. In many areas, the housing market has also suffered, resulting in numerous evictions, foreclosures and prolonged 26

vacancies. It contributed to the failure of key businesses, declines in consumer wealth estimated in the trillions of U.S. dollars, substantial financial commitments incurred by governments, and a significant decline in economic activity. Many causes for the financial crisis have been suggested, with varying weight assigned by experts. Both market-based and regulatory solutions have been implemented or are under consideration, while significant risks remain for the world economy over the 2010–2011 period.


The collapse of the U.S. housing bubble, which peaked in 2006, caused the values of securities tied to U.S. real estate pricing to plummet, damaging financial institutions globally. Questions regarding bank solvency, declines in credit availability and damaged investor confidence had an impact on global stock markets, where securities suffered large losses during late 2008 and early 2009. Economies worldwide slowed during this period, as credit tightened and international trade declined. Critics argued that credit rating agencies and investors failed accurately to price the risk involved with mortgage-related financial products, and that governments did not adjust their regulatory practices to address 21st-century financial markets. Governments and central banks responded with unprecedented fiscal stimulus, monetary policy expansion and institutional bailouts.


The immediate cause or trigger of the crisis was the bursting of the United States housing bubble which peaked in approximately 2005–2006. Already-rising default rates on "subprime" and adjustable rate mortgages (ARM) began to increase quickly thereafter. As banks began to increasingly give out more loans to potential home owners, the housing price also began to rise. In the optimistic terms the banks would encourage the home owners to take on considerably high loans in the belief they would be able to pay it back more quickly overlooking the interest rates. Once the interest rates began to rise in mid 2007 the housing price started to drop significantly in 2006 leading into 2007. In many states like California refinancing became more difficult. As a result the number of foreclosed homes began to rise as well.

Share in GDP of U.S. financial sector since 1860

Steadily decreasing interest rates backed by the U.S Federal Reserve from 1982 onward and large inflows of foreign funds created easy credit conditions for a number of years prior to the crisis, fueling a housing construction boom and encouraging debt-financed consumption. The combination of easy credit and money inflow contributed to the United States housing bubble. Loans of various types (e.g., mortgage, credit card, and auto) were easy to obtain and consumers assumed an unprecedented debt load. As part of the housing and credit booms, the number of financial agreements called mortgagebacked securities (MBS) and collateralized debt obligations (CDO), which derived their value from mortgage payments and housing prices, greatly increased. Such financial innovation enabled institutions and investors around the world to invest in the U.S. housing market. As housing prices declined, major global financial institutions that had borrowed and invested heavily in subprime MBS reported significant 27

losses. Falling prices also resulted in homes worth less than the mortgage loan, providing a financial incentive to enter foreclosure. The ongoing foreclosure epidemic that began in late 2006 in the U.S. continues to drain wealth from consumers and erodes the financial strength of banking institutions. Defaults and losses on other loan types also increased significantly as the crisis expanded from the housing market to other parts of the economy. Total losses are estimated in the trillions of U.S. dollars globally. While the housing and credit bubbles built, a series of factors caused the financial system to both expand and become increasingly fragile, a process called financialization. U. S. Government policy from the 1970s onward has emphasized deregulation to encourage business, which resulted in less oversight of activities and less disclosure of information about new activities undertaken by banks and other evolving financial institutions. Thus, policymakers did not immediately recognize the increasingly important role played by financial institutions such as investment banks and hedge funds, also known as the shadow banking system. Some experts believe these institutions had become as important as commercial (depository) banks in providing credit to the U.S. economy, but they were not subject to the same regulations. These institutions, as well as certain regulated banks, had also assumed significant debt burdens while providing the loans described above and did not have a financial cushion sufficient to absorb large loan defaults or MBS losses. These losses impacted the ability of financial institutions to lend, slowing economic activity. Concerns regarding the stability of key financial institutions drove central banks to provide funds to encourage lending and restore faith in the commercial paper markets, which are integral to funding business operations. Governments also bailed out key financial institutions and implemented economic stimulus programs, assuming significant additional financial commitments. The U.S. Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission reported its findings in January 2011. It concluded that "the crisis was avoidable and was caused by: Widespread failures in financial regulation, including the Federal Reserve‘s failure to stem the tide of toxic mortgages; Dramatic breakdowns in corporate governance including too many financial firms acting recklessly and taking on too much risk; An explosive mix of excessive borrowing and risk by households and Wall Street that put the financial system on a collision course with crisis; Key policy makers ill prepared for the crisis, lacking a full understanding of the financial system they oversaw; and systemic breaches in accountability and ethics at all levels.‖

Growth of the housing bubble:


A graph showing the median and average sales prices of new homes sold in the United States between 1963 and 2008 (not adjusted for inflation)

Between 1997 and 2006, the price of the typical American house increased by 124%. During the two decades ending in 2001, the national median home price ranged from 2.9 to 3.1 times median household income. This ratio rose to 4.0 in 2004, and 4.6 in 2006. This housing bubble resulted in quite a few homeowners refinancing their homes at lower interest rates, or financing consumer spending by taking out second mortgages secured by the price appreciation. In a Peabody Award winning program, NPR correspondents argued that a "Giant Pool of Money" (represented by $70 trillion in worldwide fixed income investments) sought higher yields than those offered by U.S. Treasury bonds early in the decade. This pool of money had roughly doubled in size from 2000 to 2007, yet the supply of relatively safe, income generating investments had not grown as fast. Investment banks on Wall Street answered this demand with the MBS and CDO, which were assigned safe ratings by the credit rating agencies. In effect, Wall Street connected this pool of money to the mortgage market in the U.S., with enormous fees accruing to those throughout the mortgage supply chain, from the mortgage broker selling the loans, to small banks that funded the brokers, to the giant investment banks behind them. By approximately 2003, the supply of mortgages originated at traditional lending standards had been exhausted. However, continued strong demand for MBS and CDO began to drive down lending standards, as long as mortgages could still be sold along the supply chain. Eventually, this speculative bubble proved unsustainable. The CDO in particular enabled financial institutions to obtain investor funds to finance subprime and other lending, extending or increasing the housing bubble and generating large fees. A CDO essentially places cash payments from multiple mortgages or other debt obligations into a single pool, from which the cash is allocated to specific securities in a priority sequence. Those securities obtaining cash first received investment-grade ratings from rating agencies. Lower priority securities received cash thereafter, with lower credit ratings but theoretically a higher rate of return on the amount invested. By September 2008, average U.S. housing prices had declined by over 20% from their mid-2006 peak. As prices declined, borrowers with adjustable-rate mortgages could not refinance to avoid the higher payments associated with rising interest rates and began to default. During 2007, lenders began foreclosure proceedings on nearly 1.3 million properties, a 79% increase over 2006. This increased to 2.3 million in 2008, an 81% increase vs. 2007. By August 2008, 9.2% of all U.S. mortgages outstanding were either delinquent or in foreclosure. By September 2009, this had risen to 14.4%.

Easy credit conditions:

Lower interest rates encourage borrowing. From 2000 to 2003, the Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate target from 6.5% to 1.0%. This was done to soften the effects of the collapse of the dot-com bubble and of the September 2001 terrorist attacks, and to combat the perceived risk of deflation. 29

U.S. current account or trade deficit

Additional downward pressure on interest rates was created by the USA's high and rising current account (trade) deficit, which peaked along with the housing bubble in 2006. Ben Bernanke explained how trade deficits required the U.S. to borrow money from abroad, which bid up bond prices and lowered interest rates. Bernanke explained that between 1996 and 2004, the USA current account deficit increased by $650 billion, from 1.5% to 5.8% of GDP. Financing these deficits required the USA to borrow large sums from abroad, much of it from countries running trade surpluses, mainly the emerging economies in Asia and oil-exporting nations. The balance of payments identity requires that a country (such as the USA) running a current account deficit also have a capital account (investment) surplus of the same amount. Hence large and growing amounts of foreign funds (capital) flowed into the USA to finance its imports. This created demand for various types of financial assets, raising the prices of those assets while lowering interest rates. Foreign investors had these funds to lend, either because they had very high personal savings rates (as high as 40% in China), or because of high oil prices. Bernanke referred to this as a "saving glut." A "flood" of funds (capital or liquidity) reached the USA financial markets. Foreign governments supplied funds by purchasing USA Treasury bonds and thus avoided much of the direct impact of the crisis. USA households, on the other hand, used funds borrowed from foreigners to finance consumption or to bid up the prices of housing and financial assets. Financial institutions invested foreign funds in mortgage-backed securities. The Fed then raised the Fed funds rate significantly between July 2004 and July 2006. This contributed to an increase in 1-year and 5-year adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) rates, making ARM interest rate resets more expensive for homeowners. This may have also contributed to the deflating of the housing bubble, as asset prices generally move inversely to interest rates and it became riskier to speculate in housing. USA housing and financial assets dramatically declined in value after the housing bubble burst.

Weak and fraudulent underwriting practice:

Testimony given to the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission by Richard M. Bowen, III on events during his tenure as Citi's Business Chief Underwriter for Correspondent Lending in the Consumer Lending Group (where he was responsible for over 220 professional underwriters) suggests that by the final years of the US housing bubble (2006–2007), the collapse of mortgage underwriting standards was endemic. His testimony states that by 2006, 60% of mortgages purchased by Citi from some 1,600 mortgage companies were "defective" (were not underwritten to policy, or did not contain all policy-required documents). This, despite

the fact that each of these 1,600 originators were contractually responsible (certified via representations and warrantees) that their mortgage originations met Citi's standards. Moreover, during 2007, "defective mortgages (from mortgage originators contractually bound to perform underwriting to Citi's standards) increased... to over 80% of production". In separate testimony to Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission, officers of Clayton Holdings—the largest residential loan due diligence and securitization surveillance company in the United States and Europe—testified that Clayton's review of over 900,000 mortgages issued from January 2006 to June 2007 revealed that scarcely 54% of the loans met their originators‘ underwriting standards. The analysis (conducted on behalf of 23 investment and commercial banks, including 7 "Too Big To Fail" banks) additionally showed that 28% of the sampled loans did not meet the minimal standards of any issuer. Clayton's analysis further showed that 39% of these loans (i.e. those not meeting any issuer's minimal underwriting standards) were subsequently securitized and sold to investors.

Sub-prime lending:

The term subprime refers to the credit quality of particular borrowers, who have weakened credit histories and a greater risk of loan default than prime borrowers. The value of U.S. subprime mortgages was estimated at $1.3 trillion as of March 2007, with over 7.5 million first-lien subprime mortgages outstanding.

U.S. subprime lending expanded dramatically 2004-2006

In addition to easy credit conditions, there is evidence that both government and competitive pressures contributed to an increase in the amount of subprime lending during the years preceding the crisis. Major U.S. investment banks and government sponsored enterprises like Fannie Mae played an important role in the expansion of higher-risk lending. Subprime mortgages remained below 10% of all mortgage originations until 2004, when they spiked to nearly 20% and remained there through the 2005-2006 peak of the United States housing bubble. A proximate event to this increase was the April 2004 decision by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to relax the net capital rule, which permitted the largest five investment banks to dramatically increase their financial leverage and aggressively expand their issuance of mortgage-backed securities. This applied additional competitive pressure to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which further expanded their riskier lending. Subprime mortgage payment delinquency rates remained in the 10-15% range from 1998 to 2006, then began to increase rapidly, rising to 25% by early 2008. Some, like American Enterprise Institute fellow Peter J. Wallison, believe the roots of the crisis can be traced directly to sub-prime lending by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which are government sponsored entities. 31

A 2000 United States Department of the Treasury study of lending trends for 305 cities from 1993 to 1998 showed that $467 billion of mortgage lending was made by Community Reinvestment Act (CRA)-covered lenders into low and mid level income (LMI) borrowers and neighborhoods, representing 10% of all US mortgage lending during the period. The majority of these were prime loans. Sub-prime loans made by CRA-covered institutions constituted a 3% market share of LMI loans in 1998. Nevertheless, only 25% of all sub-prime lending occurred at CRA-covered institutions, and a full 50% of sub-prime loans originated at institutions exempt from CRA. For at least one mortgage lender,CRA loans were the more "vulnerable during the downturn, to the detriment of both borrowers and lenders. For example, lending done under Community Reinvestment Act criteria, according to a quarterly report in October of 2008, constituted only 7% of the total mortgage lending by the Bank of America, but constituted 29% of its losses on mortgages." Others have pointed out that there were not enough of these loans made to cause a crisis of this magnitude. In an article in Portfolio Magazine, Michael Lewis spoke with one trader who noted that "There weren‘t enough Americans with [bad] credit taking out [bad loans] to satisfy investors‘ appetite for the end product." Essentially, investment banks and hedge funds used financial innovation to enable large wagers to be made, far beyond the actual value of the underlying mortgage loans, using derivatives called credit default swaps, CDO and synthetic CDO. As long as derivative buyers could be matched with sellers, the theoretical amount that could be wagered was infinite. "They were creating [synthetic loans] out of whole cloth. One hundred times over! That‘s why the losses are so much greater than the loans." Economist Paul Krugman argued in January 2010 that the simultaneous growth of the residential and commercial real estate pricing bubbles undermines the case made by those who argue that Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, CRA or predatory lending were primary causes of the crisis. In other words, bubbles in both markets developed even though only the residential market was affected by these potential causes.

Predatory lending:

Predatory lending refers to the practice of unscrupulous lenders, to enter into "unsafe" or "unsound" secured loans for inappropriate purposes. A classic bait-and-switch method was used by Countrywide Financial, advertising low interest rates for home refinancing. Such loans were written into extensively detailed contracts, and swapped for more expensive loan products on the day of closing. Whereas the advertisement might state that 1% or 1.5% interest would be charged, the consumer would be put into an adjustable rate mortgage (ARM) in which the interest charged would be greater than the amount of interest paid. This created negative amortization, which the credit consumer might not notice until long after the loan transaction had been consummated. Countrywide, sued by California Attorney General Jerry Brown for "unfair business practices" and "false advertising" was making high cost mortgages "to homeowners with weak credit, adjustable rate mortgages (ARMs) that allowed homeowners to make interest-only payments". When housing prices decreased, homeowners in ARMs then had little incentive to pay their monthly payments, since their home equity had disappeared. This caused Countrywide's financial condition to deteriorate, ultimately resulting in a decision by the Office of Thrift Supervision to seize the lender. Former employees from Ameriquest, which was United States's leading wholesale lender, described a system in which they were pushed to falsify mortgage documents and then sell the mortgages to Wall Street banks eager to make fast profits. There is growing evidence that such mortgage frauds may be a cause of the crisis.

Increased debt burden or over-leveraging:

U.S. households and financial institutions became increasingly indebted or overleveraged during the years preceding the crisis. This increased their vulnerability to the collapse of the housing bubble and worsened the ensuing economic downturn. Key statistics include:  Free cash used by consumers from home equity extraction doubled from $627 billion in 2001 to $1,428 billion in 2005 as the housing bubble built, a total of nearly $5 trillion dollars over the period, contributing to economic growth worldwide. U.S. home mortgage debt relative to GDP increased from an average of 46% during the 1990s to 73% during 2008, reaching $10.5 trillion.  USA household debt as a percentage of annual disposable personal income was 127% at the end of 2007, versus 77% in 1990. 32

 

In 1981, U.S. private debt was 123% of GDP; by the third quarter of 2008, it was 290%.[87] From 2004-07, the top five U.S. investment banks each significantly increased their financial leverage (see diagram), which increased their vulnerability to a financial shock. These five institutions reported over $4.1 trillion in debt for fiscal year 2007, about 30% of USA nominal GDP for 2007. Lehman Brothers was liquidated, Bear Stearns and Merrill Lynch were sold at fire-sale prices, and Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley became commercial banks, subjecting themselves to more stringent regulation. With the exception of Lehman, these companies required or received government support.

Leverage ratios of investment banks increased significantly 2003-2007

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, two U.S. Government sponsored enterprises, owned or guaranteed nearly $5 trillion in mortgage obligations at the time they were placed into conservatorship by the U.S. government in September 2008. These seven entities were highly leveraged and had $9 trillion in debt or guarantee obligations, an enormous concentration of risk; yet they were not subject to the same regulation as depository banks.

Financial innovation and complexity:

The term financial innovation refers to the ongoing development of financial products designed to achieve particular client objectives, such as offsetting a particular risk exposure (such as the default of a borrower) or to assist with obtaining financing. Examples pertinent to this crisis included: the adjustable-rate mortgage; the bundling of subprime mortgages into mortgage-backed securities (MBS) or collateralized debt obligations (CDO) for sale to investors, a type of securitization; and a form of credit insurance called credit default swaps (CDS). The usage of these products expanded dramatically in the years leading up to the crisis. These products vary in complexity and the ease with which they can be valued on the books of financial institutions. CDO issuance grew from an estimated $20 billion in Q1 2004 to its peak of over $180 billion by Q1 2007, then declined back under $20 billion by Q1 2008. Further, the credit quality of CDO's declined from 2000-2007, as the level of subprime and other non-prime mortgage debt increased from 5% to 36% of CDO assets. As described in the section on subprime lending, the CDS and portfolio of CDS called synthetic CDO enabled a theoretically infinite amount to be wagered on the finite value of housing loans outstanding, provided that buyers and sellers of the derivatives could be found. For example, selling a CDS to insure a CDO ended up giving the seller the same risk as if they owned the CDO, when those CDO's became worthless. 33

Martin Wolf wrote in June 2009 that certain financial innovations enabled firms to circumvent regulations, such as off-balance sheet financing that affects the leverage or capital cushion reported by major banks, stating: " enormous part of what banks did in the early part of this decade – the off-balance-sheet vehicles, the derivatives and the 'shadow banking system' itself – was to find a way round regulation."

IMF Diagram of CDO and RMBS

Incorrect pricing of risk:

The pricing of risk refers to the incremental compensation required by investors for taking on additional risk, which may be measured by interest rates or fees. For a variety of reasons, market participants did not accurately measure the risk inherent with financial innovation such as MBS and CDO's or understand its impact on the overall stability of the financial system. For example, the pricing model for CDOs clearly did not reflect the level of risk they introduced into the system. Banks estimated that $450bn of CDO were sold between "late 2005 to the middle of 2007"; among the $102bn of those that had been liquidated, JPMorgan estimated that the average recovery rate for "high quality" CDOs was approximately 32 cents on the dollar, while the recovery rate for mezzanine CDO was approximately five cents for every dollar. Another example relates to AIG, which insured obligations of various financial institutions through the usage of credit default swaps. The basic CDS transaction involved AIG receiving a premium in exchange for a promise to pay money to party A in the event party B defaulted. However, AIG did not have the financial strength to support its many CDS commitments as the crisis progressed and was taken over by the government in September 2008. U.S. taxpayers provided over $180 billion in government support to AIG during 2008 and early 2009, through which the money flowed to various counterparties to CDS transactions, including many large global financial institutions. The limitations of a widely-used financial model also were not properly understood. This formula assumed that the price of CDS was correlated with and could predict the correct price of 34

mortgage backed securities. Because it was highly tractable, it rapidly came to be used by a huge percentage of CDO and CDS investors, issuers, and rating agencies. As financial assets became more and more complex, and harder and harder to value, investors were reassured by the fact that both the international bond rating agencies and bank regulators, who came to rely on them, accepted as valid some complex mathematical models which theoretically showed the risks were much smaller than they actually proved to be. George Soros commented that "The super-boom got out of hand when the new products became so complicated that the authorities could no longer calculate the risks and started relying on the risk management methods of the banks themselves. Similarly, the rating agencies relied on the information provided by the originators of synthetic products. It was a shocking abdication of responsibility." Moreover, a conflict of interest between professional investment managers and their institutional clients, combined with a global glut in investment capital, led to bad investments by asset managers in over-priced credit assets. Professional investment managers generally are compensated based on the volume of client assets under management. There is, therefore, an incentive for asset managers to expand their assets under management in order to maximize their compensation. As the glut in global investment capital caused the yields on credit assets to decline, asset managers were faced with the choice of either investing in assets where returns did not reflect true credit risk or returning funds to clients. Many asset managers chose to continue to invest client funds in over-priced (under-yielding) investments, to the detriment of their clients, in order to maintain their assets under management. This choice was supported by a ―plausible deniability‖ of the risks associated with subprime-based credit assets because the loss experience with early ―vintages‖ of subprime loans was so low. Despite the dominance of the above formula, there are documented attempts of the financial industry, occurring before the crisis, to address the formula limitations, specifically the lack of dependence dynamics and the poor representation of extreme events. The volume "Credit Correlation: Life After Copulas", published in 2007 by World Scientific, summarizes a 2006 conference held by Merrill Lynch in London where several practitioners attempted to propose models rectifying some of the copula limitations. See also the article by Donnelly and Embrechts and the book by Brigo, Pallavicini and Torresetti, that reports relevant warnings and research on CDOs appeared in 2006.

Boom and collapse of the shadow banking system:

In a June 2008 speech, President and CEO of the New York Federal Reserve Bank Timothy Geithner — who in 2009 became Secretary of the United States Treasury — placed significant blame for the freezing of credit markets on a "run" on the entities in the "parallel" banking system, also called the shadow banking system. These entities became critical to the credit markets underpinning the financial system, but were not subject to the same regulatory controls. Further, these entities were vulnerable because of maturity mismatch, meaning that they borrowed short-term in liquid markets to purchase long-term, liquid and risky assets. This meant that disruptions in credit markets would make them subject to rapid deleveraging, selling their long-term assets at depressed prices. Paul Krugman, laureate of the Nobel Prize in Economics, described the run on the shadow banking system as the "core of what happened" to cause the crisis. He referred to this lack of controls as "malign neglect" and argued that regulation should have been imposed on all banking-like activity. The securitization markets supported by the shadow banking system started to close down in the spring of 2007 and nearly shut-down in the fall of 2008. More than a third of the private credit markets thus became unavailable as a source of funds. According to the Brookings Institution, the traditional banking system does not have the capital to close this gap as of June 2009: "It would take a number of years of strong profits to generate sufficient capital to support that additional lending volume." The authors also indicate that some forms of securitization are "likely to vanish forever, having been an artifact of excessively loose credit conditions."


Securitization markets were impaired during the crisis

Economist Mark Zandi testified to the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission in January 2010: "The securitization markets also remain impaired, as investors anticipate more loan losses. Investors are also uncertain about coming legal and accounting rule changes and regulatory reforms. Private bond issuance of residential and commercial mortgage-backed securities, asset-backed securities, and CDOs peaked in 2006 at close to $2 trillion...In 2009, private issuance was less than $150 billion, and almost all of it was asset-backed issuance supported by the Federal Reserve's TALF program to aid credit card, auto and small-business lenders. Issuance of residential and commercial mortgage-backed securities and CDOs remains dormant."

Commodities boom:

Rapid increases in a number of commodity prices followed the collapse in the housing bubble. The price of oil nearly tripled from $50 to $147 from early 2007 to 2008, before plunging as the financial crisis began to take hold in late 2008. Experts debate the causes, with some attributing it to speculative flow of money from housing and other investments into commodities, some to monetary policy, and some to the increasing feeling of raw materials scarcity in a fast growing world, leading to long positions taken on those markets, such as Chinese increasing presence in Africa. An increase in oil prices tends to divert a larger share of consumer spending into gasoline, which creates downward pressure on economic growth in oil importing countries, as wealth flows to oil-producing states. A pattern of spiking instability in the price of oil over the decade leading up to the price high of 2008 has been recently identified. The destabilizing effects of this price variance has been proposed as a contributory factor in the financial crisis. In testimony before the Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation on June 3, 2008, former director of the CFTC Division of Trading & Markets (responsible for enforcement) Michael Greenberger specifically named the Atlanta-based Intercontinental Exchange, founded by Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and BP as playing a key role in speculative run-up of oil futures prices traded off the regulated futures exchanges in London and New York. However, the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) had been regulated by both European and US authorities since its purchase of the International Petroleum Exchange in 2001. Mr. Greenberger was later corrected on this matter.


Global copper prices

Copper prices increased at the same time as the oil prices. Copper traded at about $2,500 per tonne from 1990 until 1999, when it fell to about $1,600. The price slump lasted until 2004 which saw a price surge that had copper reaching $7,040 per tonne in 2008. Nickel prices boomed in the late 1990s, then the price of nickel imploded from around $51,000 /£36,700 per metric ton in May 2007 to about $11,550/£8,300 per metric ton in January 2009. Prices were only just starting to recover as of January 2010, but most of Australia's nickel mines had gone bankrupt by then. As the price for high grade nickel sulphate ore recovered in 2010, so did the Australian nickel mining industry. Coincidentally with these price fluctuations, long-only commodity index funds became popular – by one estimate investment increased from $90 billion in 2006 to $200 billion at the end of 2007, while commodity prices increased 71% – which raised concern as to whether these index funds caused the commodity bubble. The empirical research has been mixed.

Role of economic forecasting:

The financial crisis was not widely predicted by mainstream economists, who instead spoke of The Great Moderation. A number of heterodox economists predicted the crisis, with varying arguments. Dirk Bezemer in his research credits (with supporting argument and estimates of timing) 12 economists with predicting the crisis: Dean Baker (US), Wynne Godley (UK), Fred Harrison (UK), Michael Hudson (US), Eric Janszen (US), Steve Keen (Australia), Jakob Brøchner Madsen & Jens Kjaer Sørensen (Denmark), Kurt Richebächer (US), Nouriel Roubini (US), Peter Schiff (US), and Robert Shiller (US). Examples of other experts who gave indications of a financial crisis have also been given. A cover story in Business Week magazine claims that economists mostly failed to predict the worst international economic crisis since the Great Depression of 1930s. The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania's online business journal examines why economists failed to predict a major global financial crisis. Popular articles published in the mass media have led the general public to believe that the majority of economists have failed in their obligation to predict the financial crisis. For example, an article in the New York Times informs that economist Nouriel Roubini warned of such crisis as early as September 2006, and the article goes on to state that the profession of economics is bad at predicting recessions. According to The Guardian, Roubini was ridiculed for predicting a collapse of the housing market and worldwide recession, while The New York Times labelled him "Dr. Doom". Within mainstream financial economics, most believe that financial crises are simply unpredictable, following Eugene Fama's efficient-market hypothesis and the related random-walk hypothesis, which state respectively that markets contain all information about possible future movements, and that the movement of financial prices are random and unpredictable. Lebanese-American trader and financial risk engineer Nassim Nicholas Taleb author of The Black Swan spent years warning against the breakdown of the banking system in particular and the economy in general owing to their use of bad risk models and reliance on forecasting, and their reliance on bad models, and framed the problem as part of "robustness and fragility". He also reacted against the cold of the establishment by making a big financial bet on banking stocks and making a fortune from the 37

crisis ("They didn't listen, so I took their money") . According to David Brooks from the New York Times, "Taleb not only has an explanation for what‘s happening, he saw it coming."

Financial markets impacts:

Impacts on financial institutions: The International Monetary Fund estimated that large U.S. and European banks lost more than $1 trillion on toxic assets and from bad loans from January 2007 to September 2009. These losses are expected to top $2.8 trillion from 2007-10. U.S. banks losses were forecast to hit $1 trillion and European bank losses will reach $1.6 trillion. The IMF estimated that U.S. banks were about 60% through their losses, but British and eurozone banks only 40%. One of the first victims was Northern Rock, a medium-sized British bank. The highly leveraged nature of its business led the bank to request security from the Bank of England. This in turn led to investor panic and a bank run in mid-September 2007. Calls by Liberal Democrat Treasury Spokesman Vince Cable to nationalize the institution were initially ignored; in February 2008, however, the British government (having failed to find a private sector buyer) relented, and the bank was taken into public hands. Northern Rock's problems proved to be an early indication of the troubles that would soon befall other banks and financial institutions. Initially the companies affected were those directly involved in home construction and mortgage lending such as Northern Rock and Countrywide Financial, as they could no longer obtain financing through the credit markets. Over 100 mortgage lenders went bankrupt during 2007 and 2008. Concerns that investment bank Bear Stearns would collapse in March 2008 resulted in its fire-sale to JP Morgan Chase. The financial institution crisis hit its peak in September and October 2008. Several major institutions either failed, were acquired under duress, or were subject to government takeover. These included Lehman Brothers, Merrill Lynch, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Washington Mutual, Wachovia, and AIG.  Credit markets and the shadow banking system: During September 2008, the crisis hit its most critical stage. There was the equivalent of a bank run on the money market mutual funds, which frequently invest in commercial paper issued by corporations to fund their operations and payrolls. Withdrawal from money markets were $144.5 billion during one week, versus $7.1 billion the week prior. This interrupted the ability of corporations to rollover (replace) their short-term debt. The U.S. government responded by extending insurance for money market accounts analogous to bank deposit insurance via a temporary guarantee and with Federal Reserve programs to purchase commercial paper. The TED spread, an indicator of perceived credit risk in the general economy, spiked up in July 2007, remained volatile for a year, then spiked even higher in September 2008, reaching a record 4.65% on October 10, 2008. In a dramatic meeting on September 18, 2008, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke met with key legislators to propose a $700 billion emergency bailout. Bernanke reportedly told them: "If we don't do this, we may not have an economy on Monday." The Emergency Economic Stabilization Act, which implemented the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP), was signed into law on October 3, 2008. Economist Paul Krugman and U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner explain the credit crisis via the implosion of the shadow banking system, which had grown to nearly equal the importance of the traditional commercial banking sector as described above. Without the ability to obtain investor funds in exchange for most types of mortgage-backed securities or asset-backed commercial paper, investment banks and other entities in the shadow banking system could not provide funds to mortgage firms and other corporations. This meant that nearly one-third of the U.S. lending mechanism was frozen and continued to be frozen into June 2009. According to the Brookings Institution, the traditional banking system does not have the capital to close this gap as of June 2009: "It would take a number of years of strong profits to generate sufficient capital to support that additional lending volume." The authors also indicate that some forms of securitization are "likely to vanish forever, having been an artifact of excessively loose credit conditions." While traditional banks have raised their lending standards, it was the collapse of the shadow banking system that is the primary cause of the reduction in funds available for borrowing. 38

TED spread and components during 2008

Wealth effects: There is a direct relationship between declines in wealth, and declines in consumption and business investment, which along with government spending represent the economic engine. Between June 2007 and November 2008, Americans lost an estimated average of more than a quarter of their collective net worth. By early November 2008, a broad U.S. stock index the S&P 500, was down 45% from its 2007 high. Housing prices had dropped 20% from their 2006 peak, with futures markets signaling a 30-35% potential drop. Total home equity in the United States, which was valued at $13 trillion at its peak in 2006, had dropped to $8.8 trillion by mid-2008 and was still falling in late 2008. Total retirement assets, Americans' second-largest household asset, dropped by 22%, from $10.3 trillion in 2006 to $8 trillion in mid-2008. During the same period, savings and investment assets (apart from retirement savings) lost $1.2 trillion and pension assets lost $1.3 trillion. Taken together, these losses total a staggering $8.3 trillion. Since peaking in the second quarter of 2007, household wealth is down $14 trillion. Further, U.S. homeowners had extracted significant equity in their homes in the years leading up to the crisis, which they could no longer do once housing prices collapsed. Free cash used by consumers from home equity extraction doubled from $627 billion in 2001 to $1,428 billion in 2005 as the housing bubble built, a total of nearly $5 trillion over the period. U.S. home mortgage debt relative to GDP increased from an average of 46% during the 1990s to 73% during 2008, reaching $10.5 trillion. To offset this decline in consumption and lending capacity, the U.S. government and U.S. Federal Reserve have committed $13.9 trillion, of which $6.8 trillion has been invested or spent, as of June 2009. In effect, the Fed has gone from being the "lender of last resort" to the "lender of only resort" for a significant portion of the economy. In some cases the Fed can now be considered the "buyer of last resort."  Effects on the global economy:  Global effects: A number of commentators have suggested that if the liquidity crisis continues, there could be an extended recession or worse. The continuing development of the crisis has prompted in some quarters fears of a global economic collapse although there are now many cautiously optimistic forecasters in addition to some prominent sources who remain negative. The financial crisis is likely to yield the biggest banking shakeout since the savings-and-loan meltdown. Investment bank UBS stated on October 6 that 2008 would see a clear global recession, with recovery unlikely for at least two years. Three days later UBS economists announced that the "beginning of the end" of the crisis had begun, with the world starting to make the necessary actions to fix the crisis: capital injection by governments; injection made systemically; interest rate cuts to help borrowers. The United Kingdom had started systemic injection, and the world's central banks were now cutting interest rates. UBS emphasized 39

the United States needed to implement systemic injection. UBS further emphasized that this fixes only the financial crisis, but that in economic terms "the worst is still to come". UBS quantified their expected recession durations on October 16: the Eurozone's would last two quarters, the United States' would last three quarters, and the United Kingdom's would last four quarters. The economic crisis in Iceland involved all three of the country's major banks. Relative to the size of its economy, Iceland‘s banking collapse is the largest suffered by any country in economic history. At the end of October UBS revised its outlook downwards: the forthcoming recession would be the worst since the early 1980s recession with negative 2009 growth for the U.S., Eurozone, UK; very limited recovery in 2010; but not as bad as the Great Depression. The Brookings Institution reported in June 2009 that U.S. consumption accounted for more than a third of the growth in global consumption between 2000 and 2007. "The US economy has been spending too much and borrowing too much for years and the rest of the world depended on the U.S. consumer as a source of global demand." With a recession in the U.S. and the increased savings rate of U.S. consumers, declines in growth elsewhere have been dramatic. For the first quarter of 2009, the annualized rate of decline in GDP was 14.4% in Germany, 15.2% in Japan, 7.4% in the UK, 18% in Latvia, 9.8% in the Euro area and 21.5% for Mexico. Some developing countries that had seen strong economic growth saw significant slowdowns. For example, growth forecasts in Cambodia show a fall from more than 10% in 2007 to close to zero in 2009, and Kenya may achieve only 3-4% growth in 2009, down from 7% in 2007. According to the research by the Overseas Development Institute, reductions in growth can be attributed to falls in trade, commodity prices, investment and remittances sent from migrant workers (which reached a record $251 billion in 2007, but have fallen in many countries since). This has stark implications and has led to a dramatic rise in the number of households living below the poverty line, be it 300,000 in Bangladesh or 230,000 in Ghana. The World Bank reported in February 2009 that in the Arab World, was far less severely affected by the credit crunch. With generally good balance of payments positions coming into the crisis or with alternative sources of financing for their large current account deficits, such as remittances, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) or foreign aid, Arab countries were able to avoid going to the market in the latter part of 2008. This group is in the best position to absorb the economic shocks. They entered the crisis in exceptionally strong positions. This gives them a significant cushion against the global downturn. The greatest impact of the global economic crisis will come in the form of lower oil prices, which remains the single most important determinant of economic performance. Steadily declining oil prices would force them to draw down reserves and cut down on investments. Significantly lower oil prices could cause a reversal of economic performance as has been the case in past oil shocks. Initial impact will be seen on public finances and employment for foreign workers.

Recession in India:

Global economic meltdown has affected almost all countries. Strongest of American, European and Japanese companies are facing severe crisis of liquidity and credit. India is not insulated, either. However, India‘s cautious approach towards reforms has saved it from possibly disastrous implications. The truth is, Indian economy is also facing a kind of slowdown. The prime reason being, world trade does not functions in isolation. All the economies are interlinked to each other and any major fluctuation in trade balance and economic conditions causes numerous problems for all other economies. According to official data, industrial growth in august has plummeted to mere 1.3% compared to the same month in 2007. That definitely is cause of concern for policy makers and industries. This data also raised fear of low GDP growth of India. It is being suspected that, our country will face huge problems in achieving even 7.5% growth rate in this fiscal. 1.3 percent industrial growth is the lowest IIP (index of industrial production) data ever registered since last ten years. April-august industrial growth rate is 4.9% which is also the lowest for the first five months of a financial year in 14-year period except 1998 and 2001. To make matters worst, a member of the PM‘s economic advisory council and director of the National Institute of Public Finance and Policy have confessed that India is going through industrial recession. Several crucial sectors of Indian economy are likely to face serious problems in coming months. Foremost among them is real estate sector. The demand for houses have reduced significantly 40

and property prices across India has registered 15-20% fall. Things are likely to get worst as another 20 percent drop in prices is quite possible in coming six months. The woes of real estate have spread to construction industry as well. Because of less demand for houses, construction companies are going to suffer big time. Financial services segment is also likely to be a major victim of economic slowdown because of less demand for credit and reduced liquidity in market. These three segments account for almost one third of services GDP and because of their current and impending plight, attaining 7.5% GDP growth in this current year is quite improbable. Industrial slowdown will also affect transport services. Transport companies are likely to witness drastic fall in their business and profits. Global recession will also lead to less tourists coming to India. That will negatively affect tours and travels industry.  How India survived recession: Recession stuck, and the share brokers, analysts, economists, experts, theoreticians and politicians were taken unawares! Share market proved again that is doesn‘t bow before anyone and it is the master of its destiny. To a great extent India survived recession and for that whom do you wish to give the credit? The political leadership? The Reserve Bank of India? The giants of industries in India? None of this….One may try to prove issues through statistics and quote the best of the economic theories to convince you that recession has been contained through prudent economic policies. Such policies have provided marginal help to contain recession. You need to give credit to the poor of India, about 70% of the total population, and the corrupt population of India, which could be any figure between 15 to 20%. And for the rest, recession did impact to some extent. For the poor in India, what happens in the stock market, what happens about the space research, which car models are introduced, how many Mercedes cars are sold, are of no consequence. He is concerned with his dal-roti. If he can‘t afford dal, he will carry on with potato, which is normally cheap. If he cannot afford potato, he eats roti with onion, chili or even salt. He has great capacity to come to terms with life! Poor man has no purchasing power so how can recession affect him? The poor man’s personal life can never be into recession in India as it was always under recession for the last several decades. His economic position is stationary like the polestar. No credit can be given for the politicians and planners of India to brag about halting the recession. The vehicle has not moved at all. Where is the question of applying breaks? It goes to the credit of the mindset of the Indian poor people. Did the corrupt which are about 20% of the population of India (broad assumption), as mentioned above, suffer from recession? They will also never suffer. This population mainly consists of politicians and their henchmen, those associated with the drugs and peddling/selling other goods of addiction, rich bureaucrats, and corrupt employees in the government departments etc and the flamboyant executives of top industrial houses that have lost touch with the common man, and are busy partying in the five-start hotels. These people live by ―Uoopar ki Amdani‖ and save their salary. They have enough money earned through corrupt sources. Whether ‗cauliflower‘ costs Rs.20/- per kg or 80/- per kg, doesn‘t bother them. Some have so much money which is sufficient for the next 7 generations to come, even if they are not gainfully employed or do any business. But there is the brighter side that continues to have positive impact on the Indian economy, and influences to check recession. We are not totally dependent for export/import on U.S or other countries that suffered to a great extent due to recessionary trends. So the tremors are not felt in India when the ‗economic earthquake‘ shakes those countries. This is due to the IT and other sectors whose market is spread over in a number of European countries, apart from the domestic market. The employment position also remained steady. Outsourcing by the companies from foreign countries, to fulfill their own economic needs, has a favorable impact on the Indian employment situation. What if low salaries, the educated youngsters are getting some employment, to cover up their day to day expenses. Nationalization of 20 important commercial banks about 4 decades ago also helped to some extent to avert recession. Government banks won‘t crash and majority of them are run efficiently procedure-wise. State Bank, which is the biggest Commercial Bank in India, is a state-owned bank. India‘s economy is not totally unbridled, just like some western countries.


Impact of global recession on India:

Recessions are the result of reduction in the demand of products in the global market. Recession can also be associated with falling prices known as deflation due to lack of demand of products. Again, it could be the result of inflation or a combination of increasing prices and stagnant economic growth in the west. Recession in the West, specially the United States, is a very bad news for our country. Our companies in India have most outsourcing deals from the US. Even our exports to US have increased over the years. Exports for January have declined by 22 per cent. There is a decline in the employment market due to the recession in the West. There has been a significant drop in the new hiring which is a cause of great concern for us. Some companies have laid off their employees and there have been cut in promotions, compensation and perks of the employees. Companies in the private sector and government sector are hesitant to take up new projects. And they are working on existing projects only. Projections indicate that up to one crore persons could lose their jobs in the correct fiscal ending March. The one crore figure has been compiled by Federation of Indian Export Organizations (FIEO), which says that it has carried out an intensive survey. The textile, garment and handicraft industry are worse effected. Together, they are going to lose four million jobs by April 2009, according to the FIEO survey. There has also been a decline in the tourist inflow lately. The real estate has also a problem of tight liquidity situations, where the developers are finding it hard to raise finances. IT industries, financial sectors, real estate owners, car industry, investment banking and other industries as well are confronting heavy loss due to the fall down of global economy. Federation of Indian chambers of Commerce and Industry (FICCI) found that faced with the global recession, inventories industries like garment, gems, textiles, chemicals and jewellery had cut production by 10 per cent to 50 per cent. How to tackle the global slump? “Our economy is shrinking, unemployment rolls are growing, businesses and families can’t get credit and small businesses can’t secure the loans they need to create jobs and get their products to market,” Obama said. ―With the stakes this high, we cannot afford to get trapped in the same old partisan gridlock.

Reasons for global recession:

These days the most talked about news is the current financial crisis that has engulfed the world economy. Every day the main headline of all newspapers is about our falling share markets, decreasing industrial growth and the overall negative mood of the economy. For many people an economic depression has already arrived whereas for some it is just round the corner. In my opinion the depression has already arrived and it has started showing its effect on India. So what has caused this major economic upheaval in the world? What is the cause of falling share markets the world over and bankruptcy of major banks? In this article, I shall try to explain the reasons for recent economic depression for all those who find it difficult to understand the complex economics lingo and are looking for a simple explanation.  It all started in US… In order to understand what is now happening in the world economy, we need to go a little back in past and understand what was happening in the housing sector of America for past many years. In US, a boom in the housing sector was driving the economy to a new level. A combination of low interest rates and large inflows of foreign funds helped to create easy credit conditions where it became quite easy for people to take home loans. As more and more people took home loans, the demands for property increased and fueled the home prices further. As there was enough money to lend to potential borrowers, the loan agencies started to widen their loan disbursement reach and relaxed the loan conditions. The loan agents were asked to find more potential home buyers in lieu of huge bonus and incentives. Since it was a good time and property prices were soaring, the only aim of most lending institutions and mortgage firms was to give loans to as many potential customers as possible. Since almost everybody was driving by the greed factor during that housing boom period, the common sense practice of checking the customer‘s repaying capacity was also ignored in many cases. As a result, many people with low income & bad credit history or those who come under the NINJA (No Income, No Job, No Assets) category were given housing loans in disregard to all principles of financial prudence. These 42

types of loans were known as sub-prime loans as those were are not part of prime loan market (as the repaying capacity of the borrowers was doubtful). Since the demands for homes were at an all time high, many homeowners used the increased property value to refinance their homes with lower interest rates and take out second mortgages against the added value (of home) to use the funds for consumer spending. The lending companies also lured the borrowers with attractive loan conditions where for an initial period the interest rates were low (known as adjustable rate mortgage (ARM). However, despite knowing that the interest rates would increase after an initial period, many sub-prime borrowers opted for them in the hope that as a result of soaring housing prices they would be able to quickly refinance at more favorable terms.  Bubble that burst… However, as the saying goes, ―No boom lasts forever‖, the housing bubble was to burst eventually. Overbuilding of houses during the boom period finally led to a surplus inventory of homes, causing home prices to decline beginning from the summer of 2006. Once housing prices started depreciating in many parts of the U.S., refinancing became more difficult. Home owners, who were expecting to get a refinance on the basis of increased home prices, found themselves unable to re-finance and began to default on loans as their loans reset to higher interest rates and payment amounts. In the US, an estimated 8.8 million homeowners – nearly 10.8% of total homeowners – had zero or negative equity as of March 2008, meaning their homes are worth less than their mortgage. This provided an incentive to ―walk away‖ from the home than to pay the mortgage. Foreclosures ( i.e. the legal proceedings initiated by a creditor to repossess the property for loan that is in default ) accelerated in the United States in late 2006. During 2007, nearly 1.3 million U.S. housing properties were subject to foreclosure activity. Increasing foreclosure rates and unwillingness of many homeowners to sell their homes at reduced market prices significantly increased the supply of housing inventory available. Sales volume (units) of new homes dropped by 26.4% in 2007 as compare to 2006. Further, a record nearly four million unsold existing homes were for sale including nearly 2.9 million that were vacant. This excess supply of home inventory placed significant downward pressure on prices. As prices declined, more homeowners were at risk of default and foreclosure. Now you must be wondering how this housing boom and its subsequent decline is related to current economic depression? After all it appears to be a local problem of America.  What complicated the matter?… Unfortunately, this problem was not as straightforward as it appears. Had it remained a matter between the lenders (who disbursed risky loans) and unreliable borrowers (who took loans and then got defaulted) then probably it would remain a local problem of America. However, this was not the case. Let us understand what complicated the problem. For original lenders these subprime loans were very lucrative part of their investment portfolio as they were expected to yield a very high return in view of the increasing home prices. Since, the interest rate charged on subprime loans was about 2% higher than the interest on prime loans (owing to their risky nature); lenders were confidant that they would get a handsome return on their investment. In case a sub-prime borrower continued to pay his loans installment, the lender would get higher interest on the loans. And in case a sub-prime borrower could not pay his loan and defaulted, the lender would have the option to sell his home (on a high market price) and recovered his loan amount. In both the situations the Sub-prime loans were excellent investment options as long as the housing market was booming. Just at this point, the things started complicating. With stock markets booming and the system flush with liquidity, many big fund investors like hedge funds and mutual funds saw subprime loan portfolios as attractive investment opportunities. Hence, they bought such portfolios from the original lenders. This in turn meant the lenders had fresh funds to lend. The subprime loan market thus became a fast growing segment. Major (American and European) investment banks and institutions heavily bought these loans (known as Mortgage Backed Securities, MBS) to diversify their investment portfolios. Most of these loans were brought as parts of CDOs (Collateralized Debt Obligations). CDOs are just like mutual funds with two significant differences. First unlike mutual funds, in CDOs all investors do not assume the risk equally and each participatory group has different risk profiles. Secondly, in contrast to mutual funds which normally buy shares and bonds, CDOs usually buy securities that are backed by loans (just like the MBS of subprime loans.) 43

Owing to heavy buying of Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) of subprime loans by major American and European Banks, the problem, which was to remain within the confines of US propagated into the word‘s financial markets. Ideally, the MBS were a very attractive option as long as home prices were soaring in US. However, when the home prices started declining, the attractive investments in Subprime loans become risky and unprofitable. As the home prices started declining in the US, sub-prime borrowers found themselves in a messy situation. Their house prices were decreasing and the loan interest on these houses was soaring. As they could not manage a second mortgage on their home, it became very difficult for them to pay the higher interest rate. As a result many of them opted to default on their home loans and vacated the house. However, as the home prices were falling rapidly, the lending companies, which were hoping to sell them and recover the loan amount, found them in a situation where loan amount exceeded the total cost of the house. Eventually, there remained no option but to write off losses on these loans. The problem got worsened as the Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), which by that time had become parts of CDOs of giant investments banks of US & Europe, lost their value. Falling prices of CDOs dented banks‘ investment portfolios and these losses destroyed banks‘ capital. The complexity of these instruments and their wide spread to major International banks created a situation where no one was too sure either about how big these losses were or which banks had been hit the hardest.  Mayhem in the banks…. The effects of these losses were huge. Global banks and brokerages have had to write off an estimated $512 billion in subprime losses so far, with the largest hits taken by Citigroup ($55.1 billion) and Merrill Lynch ($52.2 billion). A little over half of these losses, or $260 billion, have been suffered by US-based firms, $227 billion by European firms and a relatively modest $24 billion by Asian ones. Despite efforts by the US Federal Reserve to offer some financial assistance to the beleaguered financial sector, it has led to the collapse of Bear Sterns, one of the world‘s largest investment banks and securities trading firm. Bear Sterns was bought out by JP Morgan Chase with some help from the US Federal Bank (The central Bank of America just like RBI in India) The crisis has also seen Lehman Brothers – the fourth largest investment bank in the US and the one which had survived every major upheaval for the past 158 years – file for bankruptcy. Merrill Lynch has been bought out by Bank of America. Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, two giant mortgage companies of US, have effectively been nationalized to prevent them from going under. Reports suggest that insurance major AIG (American Insurance Group) is also under severe pressure and has so far taken over $82.9 billion so far to tide over the crisis. From this point, a chain reaction of panic started. Since banks and other financial institutes are like backbone for other major industries and provide them with investment capital and loans, a loss in the net capital of banks meant a serious detriment in their capacity to disburse loans for various businesses and industries. This presented a serious cash crunch situation for companies who needed cash for performing their business activities. Now it became extremely difficult for them to raise money from banks. What is worse is the fact that the losses suffered by banks in the subprime mess have directly affected their money market the world over.  Now what is a money market? Money Market is actually an inter-bank market where banks borrow and lend money among themselves to meet short-term need for funds. Banks usually never hold the exact amount of cash that they need to disburse as credit. The ‗inter-bank‘ market performs this critical role of bringing cashsurplus and cash-deficit banks together and lubricates the process of credit delivery to companies (for working capital and capacity creation) and consumers (for buying cars, white goods etc). As the housing loan crisis intensified, banks grew increasingly suspicious about each other‘s solvency and ability to honour commitments. The inter-bank market shrank as a result and this began to hurt the flow of funds to the ‗real‘ economy. Panic begets panic and as the loan market went into a tailspin, it sucked other markets into its centrifuge. The liquidity crunch in the banks has resulted in a tight situation where it has become extremely difficult even for top companies to take loans for their needs. A sense of disbelief and extreme precaution is prevailing in the banking sectors. The global investment community has become extremely risk-averse. They are pulling out of assets that are even remotely considered risky and buying things 44

traditionally considered safe-gold, government bonds and bank deposits (in banks that are still considered solvent). As such this financial crisis is the culmination of the above mentioned problems in the global banking system. Inter-bank markets across the world have frozen over. The meltdown in stock markets across the world is a victim of this contagion. Governments and central banks (like Fed in US) are trying every trick in the book to stabilize the markets. They have pumped hundreds of billions of dollars into their money markets to try and unfreeze their inter-bank and credit markets. Large financial entities have been nationalized. The US government has set aside $700 billion to buy the ‗toxic‘ assets like CDOs that sparked off the crisis. Central banks have got together to co-ordinate cuts in interest rates. None of this has stabilized the global markets so far. However, it is hoped that proper monitoring and controlling of the money market will eventually control the situation.


According to Standard and Poor‘s, the S&P 500 is down 40.29% for the year. And just in case you thought that was a typo, I‘ll repeat myself: the S&P 500 is down forty point twenty-nine percent so far in 2008. Ouch! Now here is something that is far more important. How you handle your stock market investments during a market crash is arguably the single most important determinant of your investing performance over your lifetime. In other words, the investing decisions you make during a market crash will impact your investment returns forever. And, if you make the right decisions in a falling market, you can profit handsomely. The fact is, however, that many people lose money (and lots of it) during a stock market crash, but it does not have to be so. So let‘s take a look at what‘s going on here, and how we can profit during this (and any) down market.

Investors are scared of the stock market:

There is a simple reason why so many investors and even professional money managers are scared of the stock market–in the short term, stock prices seem arbitrary. Up one day and down the next, watching the ticker every second the market is open can cause one to wonder just what in St. Peter‘s name is going on. Warren Buffett described this phenomenon like only Warren Buffett can: In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run it is a weighing machine. Actually, Benjamin Graham first said this, and it has stuck with Mr. Buffett, who repeats it often. But the wisdom behind this statement should be taken to heart. In the short term, stock prices reflect all kinds of noise. The Fed Chairman says this or that, and stocks fluctuate. Unemployment numbers come out, and the market reacts. A politician says something to get elected, and the stock market traders do their thing. The point is that in the short term (I‘d say 1 year or less), stock prices are often the result of factors that do not bear on the long-term value of the enterprise. When viewed long term, however, the market truly does reflect the underlying value of public companies. By long term I mean really long term (10 years or more). Stocks can be undervalued or overvalued for a decade (see 1960s or 1990s). But given enough time, stocks will reflect the underlying value of the corporation that issued the security.

Investors sell on fear and buy on greed:

While most would not quarrel with the above comments, many do not take them to heart. It is not easy to hold on to your investments when they fall 40%. You start to lose confidence in your investing decisions. Then you start to wonder if there has been some seismic shift in the markets. Remember the Internet bubble? I recall investors talking about how the world was totally different with the Internet, and they used this lie to convince themselves to buy stocks of dot com companies with zero revenue. Remember the housing bubble? Folks would tell me that they are not making any more land, so prices must keep going up. Those folks are renting now and proclaiming that owning a home is NOT the financially prudent thing to do. Oh, brother! The point is that many investors do exactly the opposite of what they should do. When stocks are going up, they buy, buy, and buy. When the markets crash, out of fear, they sell, sell, sell. All I can say is that this is wrong, wrong, wrong.

Timing the stock market is a fool’s game:

I have a friend who sold all of his equity investments (a 7 if not 8 figure portfolio) earlier this year before the market crash. At a party at his house the other day, friends were congratulating him on such a wise move. So I asked him if he was going to get back into the market now. He said no. Then I asked when he was going to get back into the market. He did not know. So I reminded everybody that his decision to sell will have been a good one only if he buys at the right time, too. 46

Successful market timing requires you to be right twice–once when you sell, and once when you buy. And over the lifetime of an investor, you must be correct over and over and over again. Good luck.

How to profit from a stock market crash:

The simple and easy way to profit from a stock market crash is to do one of the hardest things in life: nothing. ―Don‘t just do something, stand there!‖ is the best strategy, in my opinion. Of course, this assumes that your asset allocation plan is appropriate for your investing horizon and risk tolerance. It also assumes that your investments have gone down because the market has gone down, not because you invested in some silly dot com company with no revenue. So that‘s what I‘ve done. I‘ve not changed my asset allocation plan. I have continued to invest on a regular basis just as before. I‘ve only sold one fund, and that was for tax reasons. The proceeds will be going right back into the market to maintain my asset allocation.

A side benefit of a market crash:

One last thing. A market crash presents a great opportunity to determine just what your risk tolerance is. Many mutual fund companies and brokerage houses offer a short survey to help you determine your risk tolerance. The survey asks questions like what you would do if the market fell 20%. Would you sell, do nothing, or buy. Once you‘ve answered these questions, the survey suggests an asset allocation based on your answers. Those surveys are all well and good, but there is nothing like losing $10,000, or $100,000, or even $1 million to really gauge your risk tolerance. So after this market crash, you should know your risk tolerance very well. If you sold your investments over the past month or so, you make want to revisit your asset allocation plan. It may have been more risky than you can bear. Sound money management includes investing for the long term. As difficult as it may be, this means not making investing decisions based on fear. So let‘s hear how you have handled your investments during this down market.


Inflation rate also affect more about the stock market. Due to this trading in the stock market i.e. selling and buying the shares of the company takes place. Inflation greatly affects the other financial institution also, due to this all the loans issue by the bank also increase their rate of interest which greatly affects people. Due to this volatility people doesn‘t count or pay much interest to the investment in the stock market, somewhat it can also be true that volatility is a sign of untrustworthy by people who doesn‘t know the working and the functioning of stock market and how it works because of this instead of investing in the stock market people used to save their money with less interest in a bank and so on. Since stock market is not only played by a single company, thousands of competitors come up with news which results in variation in stock market points. During the election the economy was very low due to internal disturbances and interferences and sensex was up again on the very minute when the parliamentary election was over. It is advisable to get good knowledge on NASDAQ, BSE, NSE…etc. Stock market points also greatly varies from different points and become low when the country had a new development like manufacturing nuclear bomb because this has a deep impact on the country as well as with the foreign countries, by that time some countries stop trade with India as they want to punish for what they possess and even others countries stop supplying weapons to India. In this case the sensex is low because trading cannot be done and there is less cash revolve and circular or cash chain in the Indian stock market. But like the history Stock market never remains in the same points Even though the market might slashes within a short span of time comes out with the normal routine of ups and downs points since No company wants to remain the same ,every company wants to survive so in order to survive they have their own special team who will create new thinking even though they might be top in the market they still wants to control the market, they want to show themselves that they are unbeatable this in turn will leads to the changing of the sensex, and when big companies change their project also sensex in influence , because they normally done quite lots of things like the Tata company they have change the manufacturing place for their new products where they have spent quite lots of money. So, as the stock market is formed by different company, each performance affects the stock market and makes stock market volatility.


Optimum Investing Timing
To earn money in the stock market, it is important for investors to study the overall stock market because the market exerts a significant influence on the behavior of individual stocks. Since the market risk is a major contributing factor in a stock performance, the ability to understand the market reduces the number of surprises for investors. Generally, the stock market depends on many components, and often it is hard to predict its next move. However, it is not a chaotic thing but rather a complicated system with a certain degree of volatility and uncertainly. Neither bear nor bull market is bad for knowledgeable investors because both can be used to their benefits - the most important thing is stock market predictability. Basically, the stock market prediction can be built on the following approaches: Efficient Market Hypothesis (it states that the prices captures all known information), Fundamental analysis (it considers companies performance), or Technical analysis (it uses historical prices and volumes statistics to detect trend). Using the combination of these methods may improve the accuracy of prediction. However, even a prediction based on many techniques can fail. Fortunately, there are some principles that work in worst-case scenarios, like these: "everything is subject to change," "it is always darkest before sunrise," or "the good times come back when you least expect them." While prices are low and the stock market is down, there is a good argument to buy the solid stocks that are likely to make a good recovery. When the market failed and started bottoming the question is if there is only way up left or still some room to go lower. How to identify correctly the current situation? To solve a complicated problem, such science as mathematics uses different kinds of transformation. If a problem exists in time domain, one can transform data into another space (for example, frequency domain), relatively easy get a solution there, and then make an inverse transformation. Since frequencies and periods are just inversely proportional quantities, either of them can be used in a transformed space. S&P 500 Index (^GSPC) can be considered as a model of the overall market. By looking at the historical stock price chart of ^GSPC, one can notice that the market does not follow just a linear trend - it has some deviations from a linear function. Some cycles are well-known, such as, four-year presidential cycle or annual and quarterly fiscal reporting cycles. In addition, some cycles are defined by intrinsic characteristic properties of the system. The stock market performance curve can be considered as a sum of the cyclical functions with different periods and amplitudes. It would be easy to analyze the repetition of typical patterns in stock market performance if they did not mask themselves. In other words, sometimes cycles overlap to form an abnormal extremum or offset to form a flat period. It is clear that a simple chart analysis has a certain limit in identifying and predicting the trend. Fortunately, mathematics is able to extract basic cycles so that historical quote curve can be decomposed into a set of sinus (or cosines) functions with different periods, amplitudes, and phases that is something similar to a spectral analysis or a time series analysis. By selecting data with different historical periods, such spectral analysis can identify the major cycles, which have a dominant effect in a particular time frame. The recent research helped to detect for 40, 20, 10, and 5-year periods of ^GSPC the following major cycles (lines): 10, 8, 5, and 1.6 year. Since each line has own amplitude it is easy to estimate the significance of timing analysis for overall investment performance. For example, an average annual return for the last 5 years approximated by linear function equals around 13% and the amplitude of cycle with 1.6-year period is equal 4.8%. Therefore, in case of 1.6-year cycle only, the return can be diminished to 13-4.8*2= 3.4% with the worst timing or it can be maximized to 13+4.8*2= 22.6% with the best timing. 49

One of the techniques to build an extrapolation (forecasted curve) is to use the following two steps: (1) applying spectral (or time series) analysis to decompose the curve into basic functions, (2) composing these functions beyond the historical data. As a practical example by Addaptron software, the stock market prediction for the next five years on the basis of spectrum analysis: the stock market will suffer some volatility within the next several months but eventually it will go up until 2010-2011. Then it will crash in 2012-2013. Note, these years are approximate because the phase of cycles is fluctuating and, of course, something extraordinary can change the prediction picture. This prediction can be strengthened or weakened by comparing with other forecasting techniques. To summarize, the direction of the overall market influences significantly an individual stock. There is no method that has been successfully enough to consistently beat the market. The same is applied to a simple combination of different methods. If all predictions fail, everybody scared, and nothing seems to work, one of the approaches to try is a time series prediction because it analyzes historical data and then builds prediction on the basis of changing performance "as is," objectively, without any pressure of emotion or external information.


Selecting the right stocks for investment is an important part of making investment at the stock market but that is not the only thing that you have to consider. More important than the selection of stocks is determining the perfect time for investing is that stocks. Stocks have price movement at the stock market everyday. There are ups and downs that come in a cyclic way. As an investor you have to determine what is the exact time or more precisely the optimum price range for investing in that stock. The reason behind this is that every stock has a potential price for a given time. It takes certain time to reach that point and once the stock reaches that price, it is most likely to fall or stand still at that level with least movement in the price. In both the scenario it is not profitable to invest in stock that has already reached that optimum level, as you will either make loss or get least profit. Therefore, it is not worth investing in the stocks that are already reached the potential high for the time being. So as a trader it is important to know what is the optimum price range for the stock as that will help you to decide whether it is the right time to invest in a certain stock or not. Technical analysis is the process that does exactly that. Technical analysis can give you the idea of the future price movement of that stock. Based on that analysis you can decide whether it is profitable in that stock at that point. In technical analysis certain information like the past performance of the stock, current price of the stock, trading volume of the stock are considered. With these information and one the basis of certain principles different types of graphs and charts are prepared. By comparing these graphs of the price movements with that of the previous years it is decided by the experts how the stock will perform in the near future. So, basically technical analysis is the scientific way of predicting the movement of the stock price in the market. Technical analysis is performed by the analysts on the basis of different indicators such as cycles regressions, relative strength index, moving averages, regressions, and inter-market and intra-market price correlations. Different principles are followed by the analysts to prepare the charts and graphs of the price movements of the stocks on the basis of these indicators. These indicators are basically mathematically transformed date derived from the price of the stocks and trading volume. Here we are presenting some of the most popular models of technical analysis.  Candle Stick Charting: This method was developed by Homma Munehisa during 18th century. In candle chart method the price movement of a certain stock is predicted through the bar style chart. This chart is basically a combination of the simple line chart and colored bar chart. The candle stick chart gives a graphical presentation of the opening price, closing price, high and low price of the stock in a single day for over a period of time. This graphical presentation helps to predict the future movements by comparing the previous patterns of price movement of that stock.  Dow Theory: This theory is named after its inventor Charles H. Dow. He was the first editor of the Wall Street Journal and co-founder of Dow Jones and Company. The Dow Theory is based on six basic principles.  There can be three different types of movements in the stock market.  There are three different phases in the market trends.  Stock market discounts all news.  Market trends need to be confirmed by trading volume.  Market average should always confirm each other.  Market trend can be said have ended only when the definitive signals prove that. 51

 Elliott wave principle: This theory was developed by Ralph Nelson Elliott and published for the first time in his book The Wave Principle in the year 1938. In his theory Elliott proclaimed that the psyche of the stock market investors moves from pessimism to optimism and this creates the swing creates the price pattern. This pattern is projected by the three wave structure of increasing degree in this theory.

This philosophy (Stat-think) relates to how people take in and process information (learning) as well as how they respond to it (action). It is based on the following:  Variation exists in all processes.  That is always true, a fact of life!  All variation is the result of two separate causal systems: Dr. Walter A. Shewhart, of Bell Telephone Laboratories, developed a theory in the 1920's where he identified two components of variation; a steady component and an intermittent component. The first, called common or random variation, is caused by chance or undiscovered causes. Intermittent variation results from assignable causes (causes that can be discovered).  A look at any stock price chart will show both systems of causes;  A trend is the result of an assignable cause, for instance, a company demonstrating improving business fundamentals.  The day to day variations in stock prices have a lot of noise (random variation) along with any assignable variation.  Understanding this principle of variation is an important key to our investment success.  "Stat-Think" separates statistical thinking from methods. ("Methods" use statistics to measure or to model behavior, kindly referred to as number crunching. We're more interested in the "Thinking" aspect)  By proper use of "Stat-think," we are more apt to understand and to take advantage of the variation we deal with in all things, specifically in the market.

So, how do we use Stat-Think in investing?
 A person with his Stat-Think cap on looks at the volatility in market prices and sees a wealth of opportunity. Peter Lynch: "I have traditionally liked a certain formation. It's what I call the EKG of a rock. It's never changing. Now you know if something goes right with this company, the stock is going north. In reality, its probably just going to go sideways forever. So if you're right it goes north and if your wrong it goes sideways."  Peter Lynch sets up both causal systems in this paragraph. When he speaks of a 'never-changing' stock chart he is referring to one with no "assignable" trend. As that chart goes sideways, however, there will always be a system of random variation. Therein lies the opportunity.  It is this principle of variation that provides such an unlimited opportunity to take advantage of market variation. Stephen R. Covey (The 7 Habits of Highly Effective People, and Principle-Centered Leadership, Simon and Schuster) has trained us well in the use of principles, that is, natural systems that work under all conditions. Stat-think is such a principle.


 publicly known about the stock is reflected in its market price.

Consider two popular market theories: Efficient market theory: Stocks are always correctly priced since everything that is

 Random walk theory: The thesis that the majority of market behavior is random. Therefore, attempts to predict prices are useless and unprofitable.  If the market is efficient, nothing is required for success except rich and thorough business analysis of existing securities.  If stock prices are merely a random throw of the dice, in all the meaning of the term "random," stock picks can be made with darts and the financial page (this has been done with a 10% to 12% return).  The truth lies somewhere in the middle. Opportunity exists because:  Warren Buffet tell us the most common cause of low prices is pessimism. He likes to do business in such an environment because of the prices it produces. He says that optimism is the enemy of the rational buyer.  The market will continue to overvalue and undervalue common stocks because of the human emotion that drives it. This pattern can be exploited to our great advantage with modern computerized tools that can sort through thousands of stocks and zero in on the ones that are the most undervalued.


Stock market prediction is the act of trying to determine the future value of a company stock or other financial instrument traded on a financial exchange. The successful prediction of a stock's future price could yield significant profit. Some believe that stock price movements are governed by the random walk hypothesis and thus are unpredictable. Others disagree and those with this viewpoint possess a myriad of methods and technologies which purportedly allow them to gain future price information.

The random walk hypothesis:

When applied to a particular financial instrument, the random walk hypothesis states that the price of this instrument is governed by a random walk and hence is unpredictable. If the random walk hypothesis is false then there will exist some (potentially non-linear) correlation between the instrument price and some other indicator(s) such as trading volume or the previous day's instrument closing price. If this correlation can be determined then a potential profit can be made.

Prediction methods:

Prediction methodologies fall into three broad categories which can (and often do) overlap. They are fundamental analysis, technical analysis (charting) and technological methods.  Fundamental analysis Fundamental Analysts are concerned with the company that underlies the stock itself. They evaluate a company's past performance as well as the credibility of its accounts. Many performance ratios are created that aid the fundamental analyst with assessing the validity of a stock, such as the P/E ratio. Warren Buffett is perhaps the most famous of all Fundamental Analysts.  Technical analysis Technical analysts or chartists are not concerned with any of the company's fundamentals. They seek to determine the future price of a stock based solely on the (potential) trends of the past price (a form of time series analysis). Numerous patterns are employed such as the head and shoulders or cup and saucer. Alongside the patterns, statistical techniques are utilised such as the exponential moving average (EMA).  Technological methods With the advent of the digital computer, stock market prediction has since moved into the technological realm. The most prominent technique involves the use of artificial neural networks (ANNs) and Genetic Algorithms. ANNs can be thought of as mathematical function approximators. Their value in stock market prediction is that if a (potentially non-linear) relationship exists then it is possible that it could be found with enough indicators, the correct network structure and a large enough dataset. The most common form of ANN in use for stock market prediction is the feed forward network utilising the backward propagation of errors algorithm to update the network weights. These networks are commonly referred to as Back propagation networks. Since NNs require training and have a large parameter space, it is useful to modify the network structure for optimal predictive ability. Recently this has involved pairing NNs with genetic algorithms, a method of finding optima in multi-dimension parameter spaces utilising the biological concepts of evolution and natural selection. Moreover, some researchers have tried to 54

extract meaningful indicators from the news flash and discussion rooms about a certain stock using Data Mining techniques. But people can have different opinion about the same stock at the same time.

I, Susmita Panda sincerely thank all those who have contributed a part of their precious time helping me take up & successfully completing this seminar report on “THE WORLD OF STOCK MARKETS.” A note of special thanks to the commerce faculty members of my college to give me an opportunity to choose a topic apart from the topics given for our 6th semester seminar report & for their timely needful assistance. When preparing this report I got an opportunity to learn many facts about the stock market, role of SEBI, market variations, the big crashes like the Wall Street crash & the Recession, reasons & causes for crashes, what to do when market crashes & market prediction. The wide arena of the internet has greatly influenced my writings in this project report. Some of the reports or writings that have helped me are the following: I. An overview of Indian Financial System : By: D. Aruna Kumar (Asst. Prof. Lokmanya Tilak PG College of Management) Financial Crisis (2007-Present) By: Wikipedia How India survived Recession By: Chandrakant Mallya Impact of Global Recession By: Merinews-Citizen Indian Financial System- An Appraisal By: Economics Study Blog National Stock Exchange By: Wikipedia Nifty Fifty By: Wikipedia Optimum investment timing By: Alex Shmatov Reasons for global recession By: Eklavya Stock market crash By: Wikipedia 55










Stock market prediction By: Wikipedia The logic behind technical analysis Wall street crash of 1929 By: Wikipedia SEBI-Role & Functions By: K . K. Jindal



Sign up to vote on this title
UsefulNot useful