Liberal Democrats & the Voters

September 2012

The Times/Populus polls since the General Election
45%
Ed Miliband VAT increased elected Lab to 20% leader First tuition fees protest CSR announced Andy Coulson resigns Riots Milly Dowler phone hacking ‘revealed’ Budget 2011 Cameron at Leveson Olympics

Budget 2012 Tripoli falls

30%

French & Greek Cameron Elections vetoes EU Treaty

Lords Reform Reshuffle Rebellion

15% 10%

Economic Optimism
74% 58% 51% 45% 37% 6% -21% -21% -51% -61% -18% -40% -27% 59% 38% 23% 57% 39% 28% 34% 18% -11% -42% -14% -8% -28% -46% 79% 68% 61% 53% 42% 27% 55% 41% 26% 69% 72% 62% 52% 44% 34% Country as a whole - Badly Me & family - Badly Me & family - Well Country as a whole - Well Me & family – Net Country as a whole - Net

Framing the debate over the deficit
Britain has a severe debt crisis that threatens international confidence in our economy. Every year that the country borrows money it costs taxpayers millions in interest payments. The longer we go on borrowing, the more tax we pay to fund it and the less public services we can afford. So, even though this means bigger spending cuts over the next few years we must get back to balance by 2017, two years after the next election. Britain’s debt problem is serious and must be dealt with, but it would damage the economy and public services if cuts were made too quickly. So, even it means borrowing more for longer, we should slow the pace of cuts, rather than trying to deal with the problem completely by 2017.

55%

54%

55%

46%

49%

51%

45%

March 2011

May Sep 2011 May Sep 2012 2011 2012

45%

46%

54%

Best Economic Team
Coalition 44% 41% 37% 33% 23% 22% 16% 7% 15% 11% 11% 10% 28% 24% 28% 19% 18% 19% 33% Lab 42% None 40% 36% 32% DK

With our economy facing challenges in the months ahead, who do you most trust to manage the economy in the best interests of Britain? David Cameron, Nick Clegg and the Chancellor of the 13% Exchequer George Osborne, or Ed Miliband and the Shadow Chancellor Ed Balls?

Mar 2011 Jun 2011 Oct 2011 Mar 2012 May 2012Sept 2012

Politicians’ Ratings (0-100 scale)
Hague 46.8 Cameron 43.4 Cable 43.2 Miliband 42.2 Balls 39.2 Clegg 35.8 Osborne 34.6

Sept 2010

Feb 2011

Sept 2011

Feb 2012

Apr 2012

Sept 2012

44.8 34.5 80.0 47.2 39.7 33.0 49.8 62.2 39.2 53.8 31.6 42.0 43.4 31.3 67.8 46.0

Party Leader Ratings (0-100 scale)

Cameron

Apr 2012

Clegg Miliband Cameron Clegg Miliband 42.2 61.6 30.8 41.5 35.8 31.6 44.4 52.2

Sep 2012

Lib Dem Ratings (0-100 scale)
Apr 2012
62.2 57.5

Sep 2012
57.3 43.2 43.0 Cable 46.3

49.8

46.5

39.7

41.4

39.0

33.0

35.8

Clegg

Cable

31.6

Clegg

44.4

52.2

Views of the leaders – May 2011

Views of the leaders – September 2012

Views of the leaders – September 2012

Party Attributes: Has a good team of leaders
53% 44% 53% 44% 46% 41% 35% 31% 25% 24% 29% 31% 34% 31% 37% 33% 26% 37% 35% 25% 46%

Sept 2009 Sept 2010

Feb 2011

Sept 2011 Mar 2012

Jul 2012

Sept 2012

Party Attributes: Honest & Principled
57%

41% 41% 28% 39% 32% 30% 33% 25% 37% 35% 36%

42% 36% 33%

40% 32% 28%

Sept 2009

Sept 2010

Feb 2011

Sept 2011

Mar 2012

Sept 2012

Party Attributes: Is a united party
58% 55% 50% 40% 28% 22% 22% 40% 39% 43% 40% 27% 46% 42% 29% 46% 28% 28% 44% 30% 24%

Sept 2009 Sept 2010

Feb 2011

Sept 2011 Mar 2012

Jul 2012

Sept 2012

Party Attributes: Competent & Capable
55% 50% 44% 32% 41% 33% 39% 34% 24% 48% 36% 31% 46% 37% 30% 24% 21% 36% 34% 43% 39%

Sept 2009 Sept 2010

Feb 2011

Sept 2011 Mar 2012

Jul 2012

Sept 2012

Party Attributes: Shares my values
44% 42% 33% 41% 39% 38% 40% 31% 27% 41% 36% 36% 41% 37% 34% 42%

31% 30%

Sept 2009

Sept 2010

Feb 2011

Sept 2011

Mar 2012

Sept 2012

Party Attributes: For ordinary people not just the better off
66% 57% 52% 48% 43% 47% 31% 34% 30% 25% 52% 52% 45% 46% 31% 24% 43% 57%

Sept 2009

Sept 2010

Feb 2011

Sept 2011

Mar 2012

Sept 2012

Party Attributes: Clear ideas to deal with Britain’s problems
52% 48% 42% 33% 44% 40% 30% 25% 37% 31% 38% 32% 36% 33% 23% 42% 41% 25%

Sept 2009 Sept 2010

Feb 2011

Sept 2011 Mar 2012

Jul 2012

Sept 2012

Who do you trust more … to cut the deficit without hurting the most vulnerable
46% 43% 37% 26% 23% 19% 19% 20% 22% 20% 16% 47%

Sept 2010

Sept 2011

Mar 2012

Sept 2012

Who do you trust more … to get the balance right between tax rises & spending cuts
39% 38% 31% 28% 20% 37% 33% 37% 31%

18%

16% 13%

Sept 2010

Sept 2011

Mar 2012

Sept 2012

Who do you trust more … to tackle abuse in the welfare system
54% 47% 47% 42% 30% 32%

28% 20% 14% 12%

12%

9%

Sept 2010

Sept 2011

Mar 2012

Sept 2012

Who do you trust more … to deal with immigration
51% 43% 42% 41%

26% 21% 17% 13% 12% 13%

25%

11%

Sept 2010

Sept 2011

Mar 2012

Sept 2012

Who do you trust more … to look after the NHS
52% 43% 53% 52%

27% 22% 16% 16% 19% 17% 20% 11%

Sept 2010

Sept 2011

Mar 2012

Sept 2012

Who do you trust more … to improve standards in schools
38% 33% 39% 34% 31% 31% 40% 38%

17%

16%

16%

14%

Sept 2010

Sept 2011

Mar 2012

Sept 2012

Who do you trust more … to help business to grow & recover
43% 44% 37% 32% 33% 35%

11%

11%

11%

Sept 2011

Mar 2012

Sept 2012

Who do you trust more … to steer the economy through difficult times
42% 42% 39% 35% 31% 32%

12%

11% 7%

Sept 2011

Mar 2012

Sept 2012

Who do you trust more … to get a grip on crime and disorder
45% 43% 40% 32% 28% 33%

10%

10% 7%

Sept 2011

Mar 2012

Sept 2012

How well or badly to you think the Coalition is doing (overall & economic measures) …
64% 59% 56% 55% 50% 45% 42% 41% 36% 37% 34% 33% 28% 53% 48% 39% 39% 34% 30%
Handling the economy Overall

On public spending cuts

On tax rates

June 2010 Sept 2010 Sept 2011 Apr 2012 Sep 2012

How well or badly to you think the Coalition is doing (non-economic measures) …
On Europe

53% 50% 45% 38% 36% 35% 31% 29% 42% 36% 35% 33% 40% 37% 35% 31%
On tackling waste & fraud in the benefits system On running the NHS

On restoring discipline in schools On keeping crime low

June 2010 Sept 2010 Sept 2011 Apr 2012 Sep 2012

Statements about the Coalition
May 2011
74% 36% 27% 42% 38% 52% 24% 85% 41% 78% 55% 29% 42% 35% 54% 32% 20% 55% 29% 75% 48% 35% 20% 53% 55% 67% 44% 31% 81% 61% 45% 34% 65% 37% 24% 82% 52% 63% 30% 19% 44% 61%

May 2012
73% 39% 35% 48%

79%

Sept 2012
41%

That a vote for the Liberal That the Liberal Democrats That coalition That the Liberal Democrats Democrats is not a wasted are a responsible party of governments can be strong have made a difference to vote Government and decisive the direction of the Government

Don’t panic
% Currently saying they'll vote for that party (Sept 2011 figures) Conservative Saying they would seriously consider voting … at the next General Election Conservative Labour Liberal Democrat 59% (63%) 64% (64%) 24% (35%) Labour Liberal Democrat

Liberal Democrats & the Voters
September 2012