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Quick Start to @RISK

Welcome to @RISK!

@RISK is the most powerful, flexible, and easy-to-use risk analysis tool available. You will see that in a few simple clicks analyze risks and gain new insights never before possible in static spreadsheets.

This Quick Start application is designed to get you up and running with a very basic risk analysis in just a few steps. The learn here apply to any risk analysis. @RISK has many features that improve analyses and enhance accuracy that will no tutorial. For more comprehensive video tutorials and resources, click Videos on the @RISK ribbon. For a detailed user m and Help documentation, see the Help menu on the @RISK ribbon. How to use this Quick Start file

First, make sure @RISK is loaded. It is loaded if you see an @RISK tab at the top of the Excel window. If it is not loaded, on your desktop or click the Windows Start button, find @RISK in the Palisade DecisionTools group in the All Programs other words, open it just like you open any other program. After a welcome message, you should see the @RISK tab an ribbon, shown below.

Now you can explore the financial @RISK model on the next worksheet. The logic of the model has already been develo Excel formulas. You can study this logic and then complete the model by following the six steps indicated by the button these buttons links to a short online video explaining the purpose of the step and how to implement it with @RISK. The yourself. All six videos take less than 20 minutes total. By the time you have gone through all of the steps, you will not o simulation on this particular model, but you will have learned the basic steps for any @RISK model. Also, you can click t Examples button to see many more examples that are packaged with @RISK.

When watching the videos, you can fit the video to your screen by clicking the Full Screen icon in the lower right corner An Internet connection is required to watch the step-by-step videos.

If you don't have Internet access or want an easy reference, the six steps are explained in written form in the embedde Quick Start.pdf next to the videos buttons. Simply click the Read PDF instructions button to open it.

@RISK ribbon

ll see that in a few simple clicks, you will be able to

analysis in just a few steps. The concepts you will d enhance accuracy that will not be covered in this SK ribbon. For a detailed user manual, references,

xcel window. If it is not loaded, click the @RISK icon ools group in the All Programs list, and click @RISK. In ou should see the @RISK tab and its associated

model has already been developed with appropriate x steps indicated by the buttons at the top. Each of o implement it with @RISK. Then it asks you to do it gh all of the steps, you will not only have run a RISK model. Also, you can click the More @RISK

n icon in the lower right corner of the video controls:

n written form in the embedded PDF file called Risk on to open it.

Known inputs Discount rate Bonus limit Uncertain inputs Investment cost Year 1 revenue Annual fixed cost Annual revenue growth rate Annual variable cost percentage Discounted cash flows calculations Year Investment cost Revenue Fixed cost Variable cost Cash flow Outputs NPV Bonus

12% $30,000 Distribution Triangular Triangular Triangular Normal Normal Parameters of distributions Parameter 1 Parameter 2 $40,000 $50,000 $80,000 $100,000 $32,000 $35,000 5% 8% 50% 2% Parameter 3 $90,000 $110,000 $38,000

$50,000 $100,000 $35,000 5% 50%

0 ($50,000)

1 $100,000 $35,000 $50,000 $15,000

2 $105,000 $35,000 $52,500 $17,500

3 $110,250 $35,000 $55,125 $20,125

4 $115,763 $35,000 $57,881 $22,881

5 $121,551 $35,000 $60,775 $25,775

6 $127,628 $35,000 $63,814 $28,814

7 $134,010 $35,000 $67,005 $32,005

8 $140,710 $35,000 $70,355 $35,355

9 $147,746 $35,000 $73,873 $38,873

10 $155,133 $35,000 $77,566 $42,566

($50,000)

$91,913 $61,913