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Khng hong h thng ti chnh M, nguyn nhn, din bin v gii php ca chnh ph M

1. Nguyn nhn khng hong ti chnh M. 1.1 Nguyn nhn su xa: Nguyn nhn su xa ca cuc khng hong bt u t cuc khng hong 1970. Trong sut thi gian ny, s liu cho thy thu nhp thc t ca ngi lao ng khng tng mc d nng sut lao ng tng ng k( Wolff, 2008). Ni cch khc, xt v mt tng th, mc d s lng hng ha tng ln ng k nhng kh nng thanh ton ca a s ngi lao ng li khng tng ln. Do vy , vic cho vay tiu dng l tt yu. Vic cho vay tiu dng nh vy r rng l ch c th tr hon c khng hong ch khng cha c cn bnh kinh nin l ngi lao ng tiu dng phn khoog phi thuc v mnh trong tng sn phm. Phn khng thuc v mnh l tiu im ca s xem xt Mc xt nh chng ta bit, v ang ra n( sn phm thng d phi thuc v ngi lao ng), nhng cu trc s hu v h thng chnh tr php l m bo rng n thuc v gii ch t bn. y l nguyn nhn su xa m nu khng gii quyt mc h thng, s khng bao gi gii quyt c bnh cn ca khng hong chu k. 1.2 Nguyn nhn gin tip: Paul Krugman, ngi ot gii Nobel kinh t 2008, ng thi l mt nh bo chuyn mc ca t New York Times, v cu B trng B Ti chnh M Henry Paulson, cng c quan im cho rng, s mt cn i ton cu c th c hiu l nhng khon thng d thng mi khng l ca mt s quc gia nh Trung Quc, v thm ht thng mi cng v i khng km ca mt s nc khc nh M - l nguyn nhn gin tip gy ra khng hong ti chnh. Nhng ngi c quan im cho rng mt cn i ton cu (global imbalances) gy ra cuc khng hong nhn nhn, mt lng tin d tha t nhng quc gia c t l tit kim cao, nh Trung Quc v cc nc xut khu du la, chy vo nc M. Nhng dng tin ny khin li sut

ti M c duy tr mc thp v to ra s bng n trong lnh vc cho vay tn dng, tip l s tng vt ca gi cc loi ti sn nh nh t v chng khon. Rt cc, khi nhng bong bng ny v, khng hong ti chnh n ra theo. 1.3 Nguyn nhn trc tip: S suy sp ca th trng bt ng sn M, gn nh hu ht ngi dn khi mua nh l phi vay tin ngn hng v tr li li ln vn trong mt thi gian di sau . Do , c mt s lin h rt cht ch gia tnh hnh li sut v tnh trng ca th trng bt ng sn C th ni mt cch n gin l t lu nay a s ngi M vay tin t cc ngn hng mua nh, vi thi hn hp ng t 10 nm n 30 nm. l vic bnh thng. Nhng trong 10 nm tr li y th trng nh t pht trin mnh, cc ngn hng v cc t chc cho vay o t tip th to ra nhng hp ng cho vay khng t tiu chun v khuyn khch c nhng ngi khng kh nng ti chnh cng i vay tin mua nh. C bn yu t chnh khi to nn bong bng trong th trng bt ng sn. u tin quan trng nht l gia tng ngun vn ti tr mua bn nh thng qua k thut chng khon ha bt ng sn th chp trong khi h thng kim sot khng theo kp l nguyn nhn su xa ca khng hong. Trc y M, ngun vn cho vay mua bt ng sn ch yu do ngn hng cung cp, v vy lng tin cho vay c gii hn ty thuc vo lng tin gi ca ngi dn v nhng hn ch v t l cho vay cng nh t l d tr bt buc ca Chnh ph i vi ngn hng. Bt u t nm 2001, gip nn kinh t thot khi tr tr, Cc D tr lin bang M (Fed) lin tc h thp li sut, dn n vic cc ngn hng cng h li sut cho vay tin mua bt ng sn (mc d nhng loi li sut cho vay tin mua nh do cc ngn hng thng mi n nh bao gi cng cao hn nhiu so vi li sut c bn ca Fed, nhng mc cao hay thp ca chng bao gi cng ph thuc vo li sut c bn). Vo gia nm 2000 th li sut c bn ca Fed l trn 6% nhng sau li sut ny lin tc c ct gim, cho n gia nm 2003 th ch cn 1%. Nm 1980 Chnh ph M ban hnh Lut Giao dch Th chp Tng ng (Alternative Mortgage Transaction Parity Act), ni rng nhng quy tc cho vay v khuyn khch nhng knh ti tr khc phi ngn hng. o lut ny gp phn cho ra i ca nhiu cng ty cho vay th

chp v khng b rng buc bi cc lut l ca ngn hng. Ngay c nhng ngn hng cng thnh lp hoc lin kt vi cc cng ty cho vay th chp lm bng n cc knh cung cp vn cho th trng bt ng sn.

th 2.1: Din bin thay i ca li sut chnh sch Hoa K (ng mu xanh). Ngun: FED Th nh, cc nh u t a c m rng th trng bt k quyn li ca ngi tiu dng, gy vn cho vay c nhng ngi thu nhp thp t kh nng tr n, bng cch khuyn khch vay vi li sut lc u tht thp, v sau t lu tng ln theo li sut th trng. Nhng ngi i vay ny tng rng gi nh s ln mi mi, li sut s thp mi, nn h m u thi nhau mua nh. y l th trng c gi l th trng di chun. Khng nhng dn chng mua, m cc ngn hng, cng ty ti chnh, qu tn dng, nh u t nc ngoi cng tin tng m qung vo tng lai ca th trng nh ca. Ngn hng thay v hot ng mi gii gia ngi k gi tin v ngi i vay th h cng xng vo u t, mua gi cc CMO rc ny. Ch trong vng 6 thng u nm 2007, 8 ngn hng ln v cng ty ti chnh ln ca M nh Merrill Lynch, Golden Sachs, City Group, Morgan Chase, Bank of America pht hnh 286 t CMO di chun. V vic phi n n. Khi li sut tng, d khng nhiu, tin mn mua nh mt kh nng chi tr, cc CMO tr thnh rc tht, khng cn mang gi tr g na v chng ch c gi khi c tin chi tr ca ngi i vay. Cc ngn hng, cng ty ti chnh, khng nhng M m khp th gii ang mt vn ln v c th i n ph sn. Thng 10 v 11 va qua, tp on City

Group khai mt 8,4 t vn, cng ty Morgan-Stanley mt 3,7 t vn v nhiu ngn hng nh Bank of America v nhiu qu ti chnh khc mt vn ln hng t. Nhiu tn tui khc s tip tc khai mt vn v y ch l khi u ca khng hong. Th ba, l vic cho vay mua nh d di di chun nhng thiu c ch kim sot. Thng thng mun vay ngn hng mua nh tr gp M, ngi vay phi m bo chun gm 3 iu kin c bn l: c tin t cc t nht bng 10% s tin mua nh; chng minh c thu nhp n nh sao cho s tin tr gp hng thng khng qu 28% thu nhp v c im tn nhim vay tr sng phng. Tuy nhin, h tr cc gia nh c thu nhp thp v thu nhp khim tn (low- and monderate - income) c iu kin s hu nh , Chnh ph M c chng trnh cho vay di chun. h tr cho vic ny, Chnh ph M cho lp Hip hi quc gia ti tr bt ng sn (Federal National Mortgage Association gi tt l Fannie Mae) v Tp on cho vay th chp quc gia (Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation - gi tt l Freddie Mac). Hot ng chnh ca Fannie Mae v Freddie Mac l mua li nhng mn n vay th chp bng bt ng sn, c bit l cc khon vay th chp "di chun" (subprime mortgages) ca cc ngn hng ri dng bt ng sn th chp pht hnh tri phiu ti th chp (Mortgage-backed Securities) bn cho cc nh u t khc nhm tng tnh thanh khon cho ngn hng. Nh vy nhng mn n nh c tri phiu ha thnh sn phm ti chnh thng dng c th mua bn d dng trn th trng tin t. Cc t chc gim nh h s tn nhim (Credit rating agencies) nh gi cao loi sn phm phi sinh ny. V th, vi nim tin vo tng lai bt ng sn M tng gi lin tc nn cc tp on ti chnh, ngn hng , cc cng ty bo him , qu hu tr, qu u t v ngay c cc nh u t c nhn cc nc khc cng mua i bn li tri phiu ti th chp c cho l an ton v c li sut cao. Nhng khi th trng bt ng sn suy thoi, gi bt ng sn gim thm ch di mc cho vay, cc t chc ti chnh, ngn hng nm gi nhiu tri phiu ti th chp ngoi vic t l cn b ngi gi tin hong lon i rt tin hng lot, trong khi cc ngn hng khc cng d dt cho vay (trong th trng lin ngn hng) dn n mt kh nng thanh khon, in hnh nh Northen Rock ca Anh v Lehman Brothers ca M. im c bit y l bi v vic hnh thnh, mua bn, v bo him MBS l v cng phc tp cho nn n din ra gn nh l ngoi tm kim sot thng thng ca chnh ph. Bi v thiu s kim sot cn thit cho nn lng tham v tnh mo him tr nn ph bin cc nh u t.

Vic cho vay di chun l khng xt kh nng chi tr v im tn dng theo quy nh, nhng i li ngi vay phi tr li sut cao hn t 1 n 2%. Ngoi ra vic cho vay di chun cn th hin mc cho vay cao ti 85% gi tr bt ng sn th chp, ngi mua ch cn ng gp 15%. Ngha l ngi dn ch cn c 150.000 USD l c th c vay 850.000 USD mua cn nh 1 triu USD. Nhiu cng ty cho vay th chp hoc ngn hng cn cnh tranh thu ht khch hng bng cc gi tn dng hp dn khc. y l c hi cho cc nh u c bt ng sn v khi th trng bt ng sn ang ln, ch cn c mt t tin l c th t cc mua nh, vi thng sau gi nh ln bn ly li. Ngoi ra, vic cho vay d di di chun cn do tin cho vay c thu v thng qua chng khon ha, thng qua pht hnh tri phiu ti th chp bt ng sn th chp. Di hnh thc ny ngi cho vay v ngi vay khng bit nhau, ngn hng ch cn l n v trung gian cho vay sau chuyn nhng khon vay cho cng ty cho vay th chp cng ty pht hnh tri phiu ti th chp chuyn nhng trn th trng l xong. V d Ngn hng Northen Rock c c cu vn 25% vn t khon gi tit kim, 25% t th trng tin t lin ngn hng, 50% t vic chng khon ha. y l khuyt tt nghim trng ca vic chng khon ha bt ng sn th chp nhng thiu kim sot. Cui cng, l do gi bt ng sn ti M tng lin tc li ko cc nh u t v c ngi dn x vo kinh doanh bt ng sn lm cung vt qu cu. Vic cho vay d di to iu kin cho ng o cc nh u t tham gia u c bt ng sn, to cu o y bong bng bt ng sn ln cao. Th trng bt ng sn M tng lin tc trong vng nhiu nm qua. Theo thng k ca C quan Ti chnh nh Lin bang (OFHEO) th nu Ch s gi nh (HPI) trung bnh ca ton Lin bang nm 1980 l 100 im, th ti nm 1998 Ch s gi nh l 206 im v ti Qu 4/2007 l 387 im, c bit c nhng Bang nh New England l 613 im. Cng theo thng k ca c quan ny th gi nh Qu I/2005 tng 12,5% so vi Qu I/2004, trong khi gi cc loi hng ha v dch v khc ch tng 3,1% cng thi k. Chnh gi nh tng lin tc thc y ngi dn x vo mua bn bt ng sn, lm cho cung cu mt cn i, cung vt xa cu. Theo thng k ca C quan Thng k Hoa k th t nm 1997n nm 2007, bnh qun mi nm M xy dng thm 1.233.000 ngi nh . Nu bnh qun mi ngi nh c din tch khong 150 m2 sn th hng nm nc M xy dng

c gn 200 triu m2 nh . Ring nm 2007 c ti 17.958.000 ngi nh b khng, trong c n 13.276.000 ngi nh b khng sut nm.

th 2.3: Din bin thay i gi nh trong thi k bong bng th trng nh . Ngun: WB S mt cn bng trong nn kinh t, chi tiu vt qu kh nng Trong khi hu ht cc quc gia trn th gii thc y tng trng kinh t thng qua u t v y mnh xut khu th nc M chn cho mnh mt con ng ring duy tr tng trng kinh t l khuyn khch v y mnh tiu dng ni a. Trong nhng nm qua tiu dng ca ngi dn lun chim t trng ngy cng cao trong c cu GDP ca nc ny v hin ang t trng ln n 70% GDP. Chin lc ny trong mt thi gian t ra rt hiu qu khi lng tin ca ngi tiu dng vo trin vng ca nn kinh t ang mc cao nhng n to nn mt l hng to ln trong nn kinh t chnh l lm cho nn kinh t tr nn mt cn bng. Tiu dng ca ngi dn M dn dn tr nn qu mc bi t tng lc quan thi v c khuyn khch bi s d di ca cc t chc tn dng trong cho vay tiu dng. K t nm 2001, thu nhp thc s Hoa K st khong t 2,5 n 3 phn trm. Ngi M b vo ch thiu ht da vo vic vay tin mt cch d dng vi li sut tng i nh. V d nh cc cng ty th tn dng cho vay nhng khon tin ln vi li sut thp hn. V cc ngn hng bt u cho vay tin mua nh cho nhiu ngi hn vi cc

iu kin rt hp dn trong tng thi k. Mi ngi c chp thun cho vay cc khon tin mua nh c th cao t gp i cho n gp ba hay gp bn ln kh nng thc s ca h. H c th vay mt s tin mua nh li sut tri ni m hai nm u mc chng 1,9 n 2,9 phn trm.Cc khon cho vay sau s c nh li li sut cao hn nhiu v s tin m ngi vay n phi tr hng thng s tng ln. Chnh iu to khon thm ht thng mi cc ln v c du hiu ngy cng tng, ng thi h thng kinh t tr nn d b tn thng hn bao gi ht bi cc mi quan h vay n d di v chng cho. ti tr cho khon thm ht thng mi cc ln ca mnh nc M s dng bin php vay n nc ngoi bng cch pht hnh tri phiu ra ton th gii v cc nc hng hi mua cc tri phiu ny c bit l Trung Quc v cc nc Chu . Tnh chung cho 5 nm tr li y trung bnh mi ngy nc M vay n thm 2 t USD. V cc nh kinh t theo ch ngha hoi nghi cnh bo nguy c khng hong nhng cc cnh bo ny b b qua. Thm ch c nhiu nh kinh t cho rng thm ht thng mi ca M s c b p bi cc khon u t ca cc nc trn th gii quay ngc tr li nc M v cn cn thanh ton vn cn bng. H lp lun rng h thng kinh t bao gi cng c kh nng t iu chnh v mc cn bng do khng c vn g ng lo ngi. Tuy nhin cc nh kinh t lc quan v tnh b qua mt yu t ht sc quan trng trong nhn nh ca mnh. Bi l khi thm ht thng mi ca mt quc gia tng ln lin tc trong nhiu nm thi nghim nhin ng tin ca quc gia nhiu kh nng s phi gim gi do ngn hng trung ng c th phi in thm tin nhm ti tr cho khon thm ht ny. Ngoi ra nu nc M tip tc s dng cc khon n nc ngoi nhm ti tr cho tiu dng th khi cc khon n ny o hn ng USD s c in ra tr n vi khi lng ln do khng cn hp dn gii u t. Xu hng ny nu xy ra s tip tc kch thch gii u c thc hin mt cuc tn cng tin t chng li ng USD v do trong hon cnh xu nht c th gy ra khng hong nghim trng. ng USD mt gi, lng tin ca cng chng vo trin vng kinh t xu i lp tc s dn ti ngi tiu dng ct gim chi tiu v

nc M mt i ng lc chnh ca mnh cho tng trng v chm vo suy thoi ton din. Cc t chc tn dng phi gnh chu hu qu u tin bi cc khon cho vay d di ca h khng c kh nng thu hi. Cc khon vay ny li c chng khon ha v bn cho gii u t khin cho tnh hnh cng tr nn ti t hn khi gii u t b thit hi nng n. n lt mnh gii u t li bn tho cc khon u t ang nm trong tay khin chng rt gi thm hi gy thit hi nng cho cc ngn hng u t. Cc ngn hng u t sp khin cc khon y thc u t ca cng chng bc hi v y hng trm ngn ngi vo cnh khnh kit. Bn cnh cc t chc kinh t ln ph sn s khin hng triu ngi khc lm vo cnh mt vic v n lt h li ct gim chi tiu ti a hoc khng thanh ton c cc khon n ca mnh. Tnh trng mua bn khng trn th trng ti chnh Ai cng bit, quy tc u tin trong lnh vc u t chng khon l mua gi thp v bn gi cao. Nu nh u t trn thc t cha mua c mt hng m h c nh u t, h c th mn ngi khc mt hng bn gi cao, ri mua tr li ngi cho mn mt khi gi gim. V chnh l quy tc u tin ca hot ng bn khng (short-selling): bn gi cao, mua li vi mc gi thp, b ti phn chnh lch. Tuy nhin, iu ng lu trong thi gian qua ti M, nhiu nh u t thm ch bn ra c phiu trc khi vay mn, cn gi l bn khng v cn c. Hnh ng ny trong nhiu phin giao dch to nn p lc bn mnh y ton b th trng i xung. Bn khng v cn c l vic bn ra th m nh u t khng s hu, thm ch khng tn ti. Bi th, bn khng v cn c c xem l hung thn ca th trng chng khon, nht l trong thi im y kh khn hin nay. Theo cc chuyn gia, hnh vi bn khng v cn c thc s y gi c phiu i xung. Nu lc bn mnh v ko di t cc nh u t bn khng, gi c phiu s gim ngy cng mnh n mc gn nh ph hu hon ton gi tr ca cng ty nim yt. Mi khi th trng st gim, hot ng bn khng li b ln n mnh m. V ngay c nhng giao dch bn khng hp

php (nh u t t lnh bn khng c phiu m h thc s mn c) cng y gi c phiu gim nhanh hn. M, tnh trng cho vay di chun lm h thng ti chnh b lung lay, cng thm s xut hin ca hin tng bn khng c phiu trn th trng chng khon v bt dng sn cng lm cho nn kinh t ri vo khng hong. Khi gii u c on chc rng c phiu ca nhng tp on dnh lu n cho vay di chun s st gim, h t vay nhng c phiu ny ri t bn ra, to nn mt p lc gim gi ln khng g cu vn ni. Sau khi gi gim n mt mc no , h s mua v tr li ni cho vay cng thm mt t ph, cn bao nhiu tin chnh lch h s hng trn. Thm ch, h cn p dng cch thc mua bn khng n hai ln (naked short sale), tc l khng thm vay chng khon na m c ra lnh bn theo kiu nh xung v li dng khe h, mua bn ba ngy sau mi giao c phiu. B trng T php bang New York, Andrew Cuomo than: H ging nh k hi ca sau mt cn bo. Khng hong nim tin Dn chng, thnh vin t chc, vi nhiu l do khc nhau, khng cn tin tng ni thnh phn lnh o. Theo GS. Joseph Stiglitz, cuc khng hong Hoa K bt u t s sp thm khc ca nim tin: s b tc ti Washington xung quanh vn trn n, S&P h xp hng tn dng M, Cc ngn hng nh ln nhau v mc cho vay cng nh ti sn. Nhng giao dch phc tp c to ra loi b ri ro v che giu nhng trt gi gi tr ti sn thc ca ngn hng. Trn thc t, theo s liu ca FED cng b ngy 18/12, lng thanh khon d tr vt mc cn thit trong cc t chc nhn gi tit kim M tng t mc di 2 t USD trong thng 8 ln mc k lc 774 t USD vo gia thng 12. Mc d vy, cc ngn hng ca nc ny khng tn dng ngun tin tha ny tng cng hot ng cho vay. Theo Gio s Officer, l v nc M ang i mt mt cuc khng hong nim tin, thay v khng hong thanh khon. Vi lng tin d tr d tha khng l nh trn, r rng, l do khin cc ngn hng ngi cho vay khng phi v h khng c tin cho vay. iu m cc ngn hng lo ngi y l i tng vay tin ca h, trong bao c cc ngn hng khc s

khng tr n cho h. R rng, cc ngn hng M mt nim tin vo nhau. Cc doanh nghip cng ngi vay tin v s ri ro. Ngi tiu dng cng khng dm chi tiu v lo c ngy mt vic. Thc t l, cc ngn hng M hin nay khng c ng lc cho vay vi li sut thp, khi m bo ton vn vn l u tin hng u ca h. y l mt tr chi m con ngi ta khi bt u cm nhn thy mi ca s thua l v nhn vo h thng ti chnh, khi thua l xut hin, c th trng xung dc v tt c mi ngi u b thua l. Th trng ti chnh xoay quanh trc nguyn tc tin cy, v tin cy b xi mn, xung cp. S sp ca Lehman l biu tng nh du mc tin cy xung mt mc thp mi v d m ca n s cn tip tc. 2. Din bin ca khng hong ti chnh ca M. Nm 2002-2004: Gi c cc bang Arizona,California, Florida, Hawaii, v Nevada tng trn 25% mt nm. S bng n nh t M bt u.

Nm 2005: Bong bng nh t M v vo thng 08/2005. Th trng bt ng sn tm gin on trn mt vi bang M vo cui ma h nm 2005 khi t l li sut tng t 1% ln n 5.35% do c nhiu nh kinh doanh bt ng sn nh gi thp th trng.

Nm 2006: Th trng bt ng sn tip tc suy gim. Gi gim, kinh doanh bt ng sn, dn n mt lng nh d tha ng k. Ch s Xy dng Nh ti M hi gia thng 08 gim hn 40% so vi mt nm trc .

Nm 2007: Kinh doanh bt ng sn tip tc tht bi. S lng nh tn c tnh cao nht t nm 1989. Ngnh kinh doanh bt ng sn suy gim vi hn 25 t chc cho vay di chun tuyn b ph sn. Gn 1,3

triu bt ng sn nh b tch thu th chp n, tng 79% t nm 2006. Th k b ti chnh M gi bong bng bt ng sn ln ny l mi nguy him nh hng trc tip n nn kinh t.

Ngy 05/02: Cng ty Mortage Lenders Network USA ng th 15 trong s cc nh cho vay di chun nhiu nht M, vi tng d n 3.3 t USD thi im Qu III / 2006, tuyn b ph sn. Ngy 02/04: New Century Financial, nh cho vay di chun ln nht M, tuyn b ph sn. Thng 6: Hai qu phng h (Hedge fund - mt loi qu c tnh i chng thp v khng b qun ch qu cht) ca Bear Stearns - ngn hng u t ln th 5 ca M - qu ng sau khi nh cc vo cc chng khon c m bo bng cc khon cho vay bt ng sn di chun M. Ngy 19/07: Ch s Dow Jones ng ca vi mc 14.000 im, ln u tin trong lch s. Thng 8: Khng hong tn dng ton cu, m chnh xc l chng khon da trn cc khon n th chp di chun, c pht hin trong cc danh mc vn u t v qu trn khp th gii t BNP Paribas cho n Ngn hng Trung Quc. Nhiu nh cho vay ngng cho vay tn dng mua nh. Cc d tr lin bang (FED) cho cc ngn hng vay 100 t USD vi li sut thp. Ngy 16/08: Tp on ti chnh Countrywide, n v cho vay th chp ln nht nc M, phi trnh ph sn bng cch vay khn cp 11 USD t mt nhm cc ngn hng khc. Ngy 17/08: Cc d tr lin bang (FED) phi h mc h s chiu khu 50 im c bn t mc 6.25% xung 5.75% . Ngy 15/10: Citigroup - Tp on ngn hng hng u nc M cng b li nhun Qu 3 bt ng gim 57% do cc khon thua l v trch lp d phng ln ti 6,5 t USD. Gim c iu hnh Citigroup Charles Prince t chc vo ngy 4/11. Ngy 1517/10: Lin minh cc ngn hng M c h tr bi chnh ph thng bo lp mt siu qu tr gi 100 t USD mua li cc

chng khon c m bo bng ti sn th chp m gi tr th trng b st gim do khng hong vay di chun. Ch tch Cc d tr Lin bang Ben Bernake v B trng B ti chnh M u a ra nhng cnh bo v mi nguy him ca vic v bong bng bt ng sn.

Ngy 31/10: Cc d tr lin bang h li sut qu lin bang 25 im xung 4.5%. Thng 11: Cc d tr lin bang (FED) bm thm 41 t USD cho cc ngn hng vay vi li sut thp. y l ln xut tin ln nht ca FED k t 19 thng 9 nm 2001 (50.35 t USD).

Ngy 11/1/2008: Bank of America - ngn hng ln nht nc M v tin gi v vn ho th trng - b ra 4 t USD mua li Countrywide Financial sau khi ngn hng cho vay th chp a c ny thng bo ph sn do cc khon cho vay kh i qu ln.

Ngy 16-17/03: Bear Stearns - mt trong 5 ngn hng u t hng u ca ph Wall - c bn cho Ngn hng u t M JP Morgan Chase vi mc gi 240 triu USD, tng ng 2USD / c phiu. Cch mt nm, gi c phiu ca tp on ny l 170USD / c phiu.

Ngy 01/07: Countrywide Financial - T chc tit kim v cho vay ln th 3, ng thi l ngn hng c tc pht trin nhanh nht trong lch s nc M, vi tng ti sn l 211 t USD - b bn cho ngn hng M vi gi 4,1 t USD.

Ngy 11/07: Chnh quyn lin bang M ot quyn kim sot Ngn hng IndyMac Bancorp. y l mt trong nhng v ng ca ngn hng ln nht t trc ti nay sau khi nhng ngi gi tin rt ra hn 1,3 t USD trong vng 11 ngy.

Ngy 07/09: Cc D tr Lin bang (FED) v B Ti chnh M ot quyn kim sot hai tp on chuyn cho vay th chp Fannie Mae v Freddie Mac nhm h tr th trng nh t M.

Ngy 11/09: Lehman Brothers tuyn b ang n lc tm kim i tc bn li chnh mnh. C phiu ca ngn hng u t ny tt gim 45%.

Ngy 14/09: Bank of America cho bit s mua Merrill Lynch vi gi

29 USD/c phiu sau khi t chi ngh mua li ca Lehman Brothers. Ngy 15/09: y l ngy ti t nht ti Ph Wall k t khi th trng ny m ca tr li sau v khng b 2 to thp i ti M vo Thng 9 nm 2001. Lehman Brothers sp nh du v ph sn ln nht ti M; Merrill Lynch b Bank of America Corp thu tm; American International Group (AIG) - tp on bo him ln nht th gii mt kh nng thanh ton do nhng khon thua l lin quan ti n cm c.

Ngy 16/09: C phiu AIG gim gn mt na. FED cng b k hoch bm 85 t USD vo AIG v nm gi 80% c phn. Ngn hng Barclays ca Anh mua li mt phn ti sn ti Bc M ca Lehman vi tr gi 1,75 t USD.

Ngy 17/09: Cc d tr lin bang M cho AIG vay 85 t la gip cng ty ny trnh ph sn. C phiu ca Goldman Sachs v Morgan Stanley gim mnh; U ban Chng khon M kim ch tnh trng bn khng.

Ngy 19/09: C quan Bo him tin gi Lin bang M (FDIC) tip qun Ameri Bank ngn hng c tng ti sn l 115 triu USD.

Ngy 20-21/09: Cng b cc chi tit bn k hoch gii cu 700 t USD. Hai ngn hng u t cn "sng st" trong nhm 5 ngn hng u t hng u ca ph Wall l Goldman Sachs v Morgan Stanley chuyn i thnh tp on ngn hng a nng, nh du s kt thc m hnh ngn hng u t ti Ph Wall.

Ngy 22/09: Tp on Nomura Holdings ca Nht tr 525 triu USD thu tm hot ng ca Lehman ti chu . Sau , Nomura cng mua li Lehman ti chu u v Trung ng. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial ng mua 20% c phn Morgan Stanley.

Ngy 23/09: Warren Buffett tr 5 t USD mua 9% c phn Goldman Sachs; Cc iu tra lin bang M (FBI) iu tra Fannie, Freddie, AIG v Lehman v nghi ng c s gian ln trong cuc khng hong ti chnh ti M.

Ngy 25/09: Washington Mutual Inc. (WaMu) - mt trong nhng ngn hng tit kim ln nht M sp cng do nh cc rt ln vo

th trng cho vay th chp. C quan Bo him tin gi Lin bang M (FDIC) ot quyn kim sot WaMu v sau bn cc ti sn ca ngn hng tit kim ln nht M cho JPMorgan Chase & Co. vi gi 1,9 t USD. Vi 307 t USD tng ti sn, WaMu tr thnh ngn hng b ph sn ln nht trong lch s M. Trong khi ti Washington D.C., cc thnh vin ch cht trong quc hi ng v nhng iu khon chnh trong k hoch gii cu 700 t USD. Ngy 29/09: H vin M bt ng khng thng qua k hoch gii cu th trng ti chnh M. Phn ng ngay lp tc vi quyt nh trn, ch s cng nghip Dow Jones tt gim gn 780 im - mc gim trong mt ngy mnh nht t trc ti nay.

Ngy 30/09: Vachovia - ngn hng ln th 6 M, vi tng ti sn l 327,9 t USD - b bn li cho CitiGroup vi gi 2.16 t USD.

Ngy 01/10: Thng vin M thng qua bn k hoch gii cu 700 t USD (t l 74-25) vi mt s im c thay i, bao gm: gia hn o lut ct gim thu thu nhp cho doanh nghip v c nhn (tnh s lm ngn sch tht thu 149 t USD); tng hn mc bo him tin gi ti C quan Bo him tin gi Lin bang t 100.000 USD ln 250.000 USD

Ngy 03/10: H vin M b phiu ln th hai v thng qua d lut 700 t USD gii cu ph Wall vi s phiu thun p o 263-171. Khng y 2 gi sau , tng thng Bush t bt k chnh thc chuyn d lut thnh o lut 700 t USD gii cu th trng.

Ngy 06/10: Cc d tr lin bang M( FED) cng b k hoch mua mt lng ln cc khon n ngn hn t cc cng ty nhm khai thng th trng tin t ang ng bng.

Ngy 14/10: Chnh ph M cng b dnh 250 t USD trong gi gii cu 700 t USD rt vo cc ngn hng ln, i li s nhn c c phiu u i ca cc ngn hng ny.

Ngy 05/11: ng Barack Obama c c tng thng M, vi ng li kinh t c th gii k vng thay i hin trng kinh t M v ton cu.

Ngy 09/11: AIG c thm h tr ti chnh ca Chnh ph M, nng tng khon tin nhn cu tr ln 150 t USD.

Ngy 12/11: Cc nh chc trch M t b k hoch dng mt phn trong 700 t USD mua li khon n xu ca ngn hng. Thay vo , s tp trung mua c phiu ca cc nh cho vay ang gp kh khn. y l bc thay i ln trong chin lc gii cu, v trong k hoch ban u, Chnh ph vn hng n gii php mua li n xu ngn hng, khng mua c phn.

Ngy 25/11: Gi gii php mi vi tng s tin ln ti 800 t USD c cng b.

Ngy 01/12: Cc nh kinh t thuc cc Nghin cu Kinh t Quc gia (NBER) tuyn b " Nc M lm vo suy thoi t thng 12/2007" v c Chnh ph M chnh thc tha nhn.

Ngy 11/12: V la o 50 t USD ca Bernard Madoff v l, vi hng nghn nn nhn.

Ngy 16/12: Cc D tr lin bang M (FED) mnh tay ct gim li sut USD t 1% xung cn 0,25%.

Ngy 13/2/2009: Hai vin ca Quc hi M ln lt thng qua k hoch kch thch kinh t ln nht lch s 787 t USD ca Tng thng Obama. n 17/2, Tng thng M Obama k ban hnh Lut ti u t v khi phc nc M.

Trong qu 2: Mt lot ngn hng phc hi v thm ch cn thu li k lc nh Goldman Sachs vi mc li nhun t 3,4 t USD, tng ti 89% v l k lc trong lch s 140 nm ca ngn hng ny.

Ngy 24/07: Chng trnh p xe c mua xe mi ca Chnh ph M c chnh thc p dng.

Ngy 20/09: Vn phng Nghin cu kinh t quc gia M chnh thc cng b "Kinh t M thot khi khng hong t thng 6/2009". Tuy nhin ln sng sp ca cc ngn hng vn tip tc din ra.

Ngy 14/08: Ngn hng Colonial BancGroup b ng ca, vi gi tr ti sn khong 25 t USD.

Ngy 29/10: B Thng mi M cho bit kinh t nc ny trong qu 3/2009 ln u tin tng trng tr li sau 4 qu suy gim. C th, GDP ca M tng 3,5% trong qu 3/2009 sau khi gim 0,7% trong qu

2/2009.

Biu tng trng GDP ca M trong nhng qu gn y (n v: %) Ngun: B Thng mi M.

Kt lun:

Qua cc mc s kin trn, c th thy rng, khng hong kinh t M lm th trng ti chnh b ng bng (s ngn hng M phi gii th trong nm 2007 l 3 ngn hng, nm 2008 ln n 25 ngn hng, v nm 2009 c ti 140 ngn hng), dn n s gim st trong cc hot ng sn xut ca doanh nghip cng nh chi tiu ca ngi dn. H qu ca tnh trng trn l nhiu doanh nghip ph sn v y t l tht nghip tng cao, chi tiu v ch s lng tin ca ngi dn ri xung mc thp nht trong nhiu nm. C th nh sau: Trong 3 thng, tnh ti cui thng 9/2008, c hn 30.000 doanh nghip M ph sn. Theo t l tht nghip ti quc gia ny tnh ti 6/12/2008 ln ti 6,7%, mc cao nht trong vng 15 nm qua. Ngoi ra, mt s k lc bun tn ti hng nm v s ngi mi tht nghip theo tun v thng cng b ph trong 3 thng cui nm 2008. Danh sch cc t chc ti chnh b ph sn hoc phi sp nhp trong cuc khng hong M

Tn

Quy m Tng ti sn: 639 t la Tng vn gp c phn: $22490 t la S lng nhn vin: 26200 ngi L mt trong 4 ngn hng u t ln nht ca Hoa K Tng ti sn: 1,02 nghn t la S lng nhn vin: 60.000 ngi Xp th 32 trong danh sch Global 2000 (cc cng ty ln nht th gii) Tng ti sn: 1,05 nghn t la Tng vn gp phn 78,09 t la S lng nhn vin: 116.000 ngi Xp th 6 trong danh sch Global 2000 (cc cng ty ln nht th gii) Tng ti sn: 211 t la L tp on chim 20% tng th chp ca M, tng ng 3,5 GDP T chc tit kim v cho vay ln th 3,

Thit hi N ngn hng: 613 t la N tri phiu: 155 t la C phiu mt gi trn 90% vo ngy 15/09/2008

Gii php

Lehman Brothers

15/09/2008: np n ph sn theo chng 1 Lut Ph sn M L v ph sn ln nht trong lch s Hoa K

Merrill 2 Lynch

Thua l qu IV/2007: 9,83 t Thua l rng qu Bn cho ngn hng M I/2008: 1,97 t (BoA) vi gi 50 t la la mt gi ti sn (2007): 16,7 t la

3 AIG

C phiu mt gi 60% vo ngy 16/09/2008 Thua l 6 thng u nm 2008: 13,2 t la

16/09/2008: Cc D tr Lin bang M (FED) cp tn dng 80 t tng ng 79,9 % c phn

4 Countrywi de Financial

Thua l (2007): 01/07/2008: Bn cho 2,5 t la ngn hng M vi gi Mt gi ti sn 4,1 t la (2007): 1 t la

Bear 5 Stearns

ng thi l ngn hng c tc pht trin nhanh nht trong lch s nc M Tng ti sn: 350,4 t la Tng vn gp c phn: 66,7 t la S lng nhn vin: 15.500 ngi L cng ty chng khoans ln th 7 th gii Tng ti sn: 32 t L t chc cho vay v gi tit kim ln nht Los Angeles. ng thi l t chc th chp ln th 7 Hoa K Tng ti sn: 794,4 t la Tng vn gp c phn: 26,7 t la S lng nhn vin: 5.281 ngich L cng ty cng ln th 20 trn th gii l cng ty ti chnh ln th 2 v th chp ti M Tng ti sn: 882,5 t la Tng vn gp c phn: 44 t la

Thit haiij qu IV/2007: 859 triu 30/05/2008: Bn cho la JP Morgan Chase vi Mt gi ti sn gi 1,1 t la (2007): 1,9 t la

6 IndyMac

Tin gi khch hng: 19 t Chi ph 8,9 t cho bo him tin gi Chi ph 541 triu cho cc khon tin gi vt mc bo him

11/07/2008: Tp on Bo him Tin gi Lin bang M FDIC tip qun

Freddie Mac

Thua l (2007): 4,6 t la Thua llox qu II/2008: 821 triu la

07/09/2008: FED k hp ng b ra 1 t h tr cho Freddie Mac, i li ginh quyn kim sot cc c phiu u i c bit ca cng ty ny.

8 Fannie Mae

Thua l (2007): 2 07/09/2008: cng vi t la Freddie Mac b FED Thua l qu tip qun II/2008: 2,3 t

New Century 9 Financial Corp

L t chc hng u trong th trng th chp di chun ca M Tng thu nhp (nm 2006): 417 triu la Gi bn trn th trng: 1,75 t la S lng ngn vin: 7.200 ngi L tp on cho vay di chun ln nht ca M

la

C phiu mt 90% gi tr (thng Np n ph sn theo 03/2007) chng 11 Lut Ph Gi tr th trng sn M gim xung cn 55 triu la

Tin gi khch hng: 102 triu Ameri Tng ti sn: 115 la 10 Bank triu la Chi ph 42 triu la cho qu bo him tin gi Tng ti sn: 307 t Thua l 53 t la Washingto la t thng 6 v 11 n Mututal Washington Mutual 17 t la trong 2 Inc l ngn hng tit tun gn y kim ln nht M Gi c phiu ca Wachovia st L ngn hng ln th gim ti 81,6%, 6 M cn 1,84 USD/ c 12 Wachovia Tng ti sn: 327,9 phiu t la Thua l 9,7 t la trong na u nm nay

19/09/2008: Tp on Bo him Tin gi Lin Bang M FDIC tip qun 26/09/2008: Chnh ph tip qun v sau bn li cho JP Morgan Chase & Co vi gi 1,9 t la

30/09/2008: b bn li hco Citi Group vi gi 2,16 t la

Cha dng li , mi chuyn cn c th ti t hn na nu ba nh sn xut xe hi hng u l Ford, Geeneral Motors (GM) v Chrysler ph sn. K t u nm 2008, ngnh cng nghip xe hi ca M b khng hong ti chnh "qut" cho ti t. Vi vic doanh s bn xe

trong thng 10 ca M tt xung mc thp nht trong vng 25 nm qua, d on s ti hn do khng hong ti chnh. Chrysler t ngy 18/12 ngng hon ton hot ng sn xut ti khu vc Bc M. Chnh ph M ang cn nhc k hoch cho GM v Chrysler, hai tp on nguy ngp nht, "vay nng" 14 t USD, c trch t ngun h tr 700 t USD, tuy nhin khon tin trn ch mang tnh tm thi hai hng "sng st" n ht qu I 2009. Theo c tnh ca cc nh kinh t, nu cc tp on trn ph sn, s c thm khong 2,5 triu lao ng mt vic lm, t l tht ngip ti M t cng s leo thang vi tc chng mt. Tnh n thng 10/2009, nc M mt 7,2 triu vic lm, a t l tht nghip trong thng 9/2009 ln mc 9,8%.

Tiu dng gim, hng ha tha dn ti mc gi chung ca nn kinh t gim lin tc, y kinh t Hoa K ti nguy c c th b gim pht.

th 3.1: Ch s bnh qun cng nghip Dow-Jones gim lin tc t cui qu III nm 2007. Ngun: World-Crisis.net

3. Gii php ca chnh ph M Cc D tr Lin bang

- Ngay khi khng hong tn dng nh th cp n ra, Fed bt u can thip bng cch h li sut v tng mua MBS. n khi tnh hnh pht trin thnh khng hong ti chnh t thng 8 nm 2007, Cc D tr Lin bang Hoa K (Fed) tip tc tin hnh cc bin php ni lng tin t tng thanh khon cho cc t chc ti chnh. C th l li sut cho vay qua m lin ngn hng c gim t 5,25% qua 6 t xung cn 2% ch trong vng cha y 8 thng (18/9/2007-30/4/2008). Li sut ny sau cn tip tc gim v n ngy 16/12/2008 ch cn 0,25%, mc li sut gn 0 him thy. - Fed cn thc hin nghip v th trng m (mua li cc tri phiu chnh ph Hoa K m cc t chc ti chnh nc ny c) v h li sut ti chit khu. Gia thng 12 nm 2008, Fed tuyn b c k hoch thc hin chnh sch ni lng tin t mt lng. - Thng 12 nm 2007, Chnh ph Hoa K lp ra v giao cho Fed ch tr chng trnh Term Auction Facility cp cc khon vay ngn hn c k hn t 28 n 84 ngy theo li sut cao nht m cc t chc ti chnh tr qua u gi. Tnh n thng 11 nm 2008, c 300 t dollar c FED em cho vay theo chng trnh ny. FED cn tin hnh cho vay th chp i vi cc t chc ti chnh vi s tin tng cng ti 1,6 nghn t tnh n thng 11 nm 2008. Chnh ph

Tng thng George W. Bush trong mt bui lm vic ti Nh Trng vi mt s thnh vin ca Quc hi. Hai ng vin Tng thng John McCain v Barack Obama cng c mt. Ngy 13 thng 2 nm 2008, Tng thng George W. Bush k Economic Stimulus Act of 2008 theo chnh ph s p dng mt chng trnh kch cu tng hp tr gi 168 t dollar ch yu di hnh thc hon thu thu nhp c nhn. Trc tnh hnh khng hong ti chnh nghim trng, chnh quyn Bush trnh quc hi thng qua gi ti chnh 700 t dollar. Ban u H vin Hoa K do ng Dn ch Hoa K chim a s bc b v cho rng

khng th ph tin cu khng c qu nhiu t chc ti chnh gp kh khn. Song sau khi k hoch s dng 700 t dollar c iu chnh sang hng chi cho c cc chng trnh phc v ng o ngi dn nhm kch thch tiu dng (nh tr gip cho ngi tht nghip, h tr dinh dng cho ngi ngho v ngi thu nhp thp, pht trin c s h tng), qua vc dy nn kinh t, n c Thng vin thng qua. Ngy 3 thng 10 nm 2008, Tng thng Bush kEmergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008 cho php thc hin gi kch thch 700 t dollar ny. Ngy 16/7/2010, d lut ph Wall c Thng ngh vin M chnh thc thong qua v n ngy 21/7/2010 Tng thng chnh thc k thnh lut. o lut ci cch ph Wall c xem l bc ngot mang tnh lch s, khi nh gi li ton b cc quy nh trong h thng ti chnh M. D lut dy 2300 trang c mt s t ph: +, Th nht, 10 thnh vin Hi ng cc nh gim st ti chnh di s lnh o ca B trng Ti chnh M s gim st cht ch hn cc nh ch ti chnh ln c th gy hi cho h thng ti chnh. Hi ng cng c th bc b cc lut mi c xut bi c quan bo v khch hng trong bi cnh quan im bo v khch hng ang lan rng trong gii ti chnh. +, Th hai, mt c quan c lp mi thuc Fed s gim st cc sn phm v dch v ti chnh nh cho vay th chp, th tn dng v cc khon vay ngn hn. +, Th ba, quan h gia FED vi cc Ngn hng s c Vn phng kim ton Lin bang M - GAO, c quan kim tra ca Quc hi gim st. GAO c th kim ton cc khon vay khn cp m Fed dnh cho cc ngn hng trong cuc khng hong 2008, vic Fed mua bn c phiu m bo chnh sch li sut. Fed s gim gii hn i vi cc khon ph khi s dng th ghi n. +, Th t, ngn hng ln cng phi d tr tin nh ngn hng nh. Cc ngn hng ln phi loi b cc loi hnh chng khon u i u thc (trust preferred securities) vi cc cc c phiu thng v cc loi chng khon khc. Cc ngn hng di 15 t la ti sn khng phi loi b cc loi chng khon ny nhng khng c a vo cc Qu d tr. +, Th nm, cc ngn hng ch giao dch nhng chng khon phi sinh lin quan ti li sut, t gi hi oi, vng v bc. Cc giao dch

ny c thc hin qua cc cng ty con c lp v ti chnh, tr khi cc ti khon ngn hng c bo v bi chnh ph. +, Th su, cc ngn hng ch c u t 3% vn ca mnh vo gp vn t nhn (Private Equity) v cc Qu phng h (Hedge Funds), hai trong s cc loi hnh u t mo him. +, Th by, cc c ng s c quyn b phiu quyt nh thu nhp ca cc nh iu hnh cc ngn hng. Fed s gim st lng thng ca cc nh iu hnh. +, Th tm, cc c quan nh gi tn nhim phi ng k vi U ban chng khon - SEC. o lut ny s gip ngn chn kh nng xy ra mt cuc khng hong ti chnh tng t nh cn bo ti chnh 2007 2009. K hoch ca Barack Obama Barack Obama, tng thng th 44 ca Hoa K, sau khi trng c nu ra mt chng trnh kch thch kinh t trong Hoa K s tin hnh kch cu bng: Nhng d n pht trin c s h tng cha tng c k t thp nin 1950; Nng cp h thng s dng nng lng ca cc vn phng c quan chnh ph Hoa K theo hng tit kim nng lng; u t ln cho pht trin cng ngh nht l thng tin y t in t, h thng my tnh cho cc trng ph thng v pht trin mng Internet bng thng rng; Cp thm ngn sch cho Chng trnh bo him y t (Medicaid). Cp thm 50 t dollar ngoi khon 20 t dollar c ng cho ngnh cng nghip t vi iu kin l ngnh ny phi ci t ng k.

The Obama-Biden Plan

Obama k American Recovery and Reinvestment Act

Chng trnh ngh s phc hi kinh t ca Tng thng v Ph Tng thng mi c ni dung: Hnh ng khn cp to vic lm cho ngi M; Tr gip khn cp cho cc h gia nh gp kh khn; Tr gip trc tip v khn cp cho ngi s hu nh, thay v cu tr cc t chc ti chnh cho vay nh th chp v trch nhim; Phn ng nhanh, mnh vi khng hong ti chnh bng tt c cc cng c m nc M c.

Ngy 17 thng 2 nm 2009, Barack Obama k American Recovery and Reinvestment Act. o lut ny cho php Chnh ph thc hin gi kch thch th hai k t khi khng hong n ra. Gi kch thch ny tr gi 787 t dollar.