Universidade do Minho Departamento de Engenharia Civil

SEMINAR AND LUNCH ON EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING AND HISTORIC MASONRY
July 12, 2010

EARTHQUAKE LOSS ESTIMATION AND RISK ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY FROM CONCEPT TO REAL APPLICATIONS YASIN M. FAHJAN
Department of Earthquake and Structural Sciences Gebze Institute of Technology, Gebze, Kocaeli, Turkey

fahjan@gyte.edu.tr

HAZARD ASSESSMENT INVENTORY OF ELEMENTS AT RISK VULNERABILITIES RISK ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY LOSS RESULTS

Event Attenuation of Seismic Energy

Local Site Effects:

Seismic Risk Assessment Procedure at City Level

distance. distance and number of .SEISMIC HAZARD Deterministic Consider small number of scenarios: magnitude. number of standard deviation of ground motion Choose the largest ground motion from cases considered Probabilistic Consider all possible scenarios: all magnitude.

DETERMINISTIC APPROACH Attenuation Relationship .

PROBABILISTIC SEISMIC HAZARD Seismic source characterization Estimation of seismicity (recurrence) parameters for each source Selection of ground motion attenuation models Quantification of the seismic hazard pga. Sa. Ai Faults (line sources) SOURCE MODELS log(N) RECURRENCE F1 GROUND MOTION ATTENUATION F2 Area source M distance SEISMIC HAZARD MAP Probability of exceedance SEISMIC HAZARD CURVES Acceleration .

SOURCE CHARACTERIZATION
Active faults of eastern Marmara region during the last century (Akyuz et al., 2000)

The recent high-resolution bathymetric map obtained from the survey of the Ifremer RV Le Suroit vessel that indicates a single, thoroughgoing strike-slip fault system (LePichon et al., 2001)

Historical Earthquakes: the Earthquake Catalog

The long-term seismicity of the Marmara region (Seismicity between 32 AD –1983 taken from Ambraseys and Finkel, 1991)

The sequence of earthquakes in the 18th century (after HubertFerrari, 2000).

2002 .The seismic activity of the Marmara region with M>3 events from August 17. 1999 to present Koeri.

Koeri. 2002 .

2002 .Source Zonation Scheme Koeri.

2002 .RECURRENCE RELATIONSHIPS Koeri.

2002 .The NEHRP-based Soil Classification Koeri.

the short period site-correction defined in the 1997 NEHRP Provisions (NEHRP 1997) Fv.Site-correction Defined in the 1997 NEHRP Provisions (NEHRP 1997). Fa. the long period site correction defined in 1997 NEHRP Provisions (NEHRP 1997) .

Site dependent seismic hazard assessment Koeri. 2002 Site dependent SA (T=0.2 s) map for 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years .

Site dependent seismic hazard assessment Koeri. 2002 Site dependent SA (T=1.0 s) map for 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years .

4 S MS T0 TS 1.Standard Shape of the Design Spectrum (NEHRP 1997) Sa SMS Sa=S M1 / T SM1 0.0 Period .

RISK ASSESSMENT ANALYSIS LEVELS National Level City Level (District & Sub-district) Building Level .

Risk Assessment At NATIONAL Level Intensity based estimation for the total damage for each city .

Assessment Procedures At Building Level Members Capacity Strong Ground Motion Time Histroy .

Seismic Risk Assessment Procedure at City Level .

ELEMENTS AT RISK • Buildings • Lifeline Systems • Population • Socio-Economic Activities Built Environment .

Vulnerability Estimation Methodology Observed Vulnerability Based on Previous Earthquake Damage Data Calculated Vulnerability Based on computed performance of the building class .

Observed Vulnerability Advantage Based on Observed Damage in previous Earthquakes Simple Concept Limitations Intensity Based that does not fit to Current Engineering parameters Regional Building Class Can not apply to New Classes of building .

HAZUS. 2003 .

Classification of Structural Damages EMS-1998 .

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2002 .Koeri.

Calculated Vulnerability Advantage Based on Engineering Ground Motion Parameters Applied to all building classes Based on Soil and Structural Response Limitations Not based on damage data Non-structural failure can not be considered .

2003 .HAZUS.

2004 .General Analysis Procedure For Buildings Loss Estimation IST.

Line plot for vulnerability curves .

Classification of Structural Damage (1) (2) (3) (4) Slight damage Moderate damage Extensive damage Complete damage Classification of Casualties Severity 1 Severity 2 Severity 3 Severity 4 Injuries requiring basic medical aid without requiring hospitalization Injuries requiring a greater degree of medical care and hospitalization Injuries that pose an immediate life threatening condition if not treated adequately and expeditiously Instantaneously killed or mortally injured .

2. 1. 2. Construction year: Pre-1985 Construction year: Post-1985 . 3. 2.Example for Classification of Building Types According to Existing Database Construction Type ( I ) 1. Skeleton type reinforced concrete building Reinforced concrete shear wall buildings Masonry and plain concrete buildings Low rise (1-3 stories) Mid rise (4-6 stories) High-rise (more than 6 stories) Number of stories ( J ) Construction date ( K ) 1. 3.

Input Building Inventory Database for Geo-Cells Input Spectral Acceleration for Geo-Cells Input Spectral Displacement Based Vulnerabilities Calibration with Intensity Based Vulnerabilities Spectral Displacement Based Loss Spectral Displacement Based Loss Estimation Analysis Estimation Analysis Input Capacity Curve for each Building Type Compute Building Damage Ratio for each Building Types Compute Number of Damaged Buildings for each building Class Input Economic Loss Data Parameters Compute Direct Economic Loss for each Building Damage State Input Demographic Database for Geo-Cells Input Casualties Loss data Parameters Compute Casualties for each Injury Groups Casualtie s Losses for geoCells. Subdistrict. Subdistrict. Districts Buildings Damages for geoCells. Subdistrict. Districts Economi c Losses for geoCells. Districts .

and replacement cost of the system components) Highway Roads Major Roads Urban Roads Highway Bridges . bridges and tunnels. classification.Transportation Systems Highway Systems: A highway transportation system consists of roadways. ( geographical location.

%11 for MMI VII. According to ATC 25. and %32 for MMI VIII .Transportation system: Earthquake Vulnerability and Damage Road damages consist of the surface damages and collapse of the neighboring slopes or retaining walls. %4 for MMI VI. the ratio of damage of local roads during an earthquake are given as %2 for MMI V. Also collapsed underpasses or buildings can block the traffic even if the motorway is not damaged.

Waste Water . storage tanks and pumping stations. ( geographical location and classification of system components. wells. water treatment plants. Water Treatment Plants Pumping Plants A waste water system consists of pipelines. Water Storage Tanks. (geographical location and classification of system components. repair cost for pipelines). repair cost for pipelines ) Brittle Pipe Ductile Pipe Wells. waste water treatment plants and lift stations.Lifeline Utility Systems Potable Water System A potable water system consists of pipelines.

Damage Functions for Water Pipelines .

. Provide Intensity range outputs of the results for each damage states of each building types. • Major Updates Integrate the deterministic hazard into the software for widely used attenuation relationships computation is integrated.4 SOFTWARE (Updated Version of KoeriLoss 1.STRUCLOSS 1.4 is an updated version of Koeriloss software. Turkey.0) • StrucLoss 1. The updated version is developed by Earthquake and Structural Department of Gebze Institute of Technology. Calibration and testing the capacity curve and fragility curve parameters can be done more accurately and in fast way.

Adnalyis Method Options Options Icons Input and Control Data Files Start Analyis .

Integration of KOERILoss and MapInfo Graphics .

ISTANBUL EARTHQUAKE RISK ASSESSMENT PROJECT .

Deterministic Seismic Hazard Mw=7.5 scenario earthquake for Istanbul and vicinity .

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GRID BASED BUILDING DISTRIBUTION .

Site dependent deterministic intensity distribution .

2 sec) values in units of g .Site-dependent deterministic SA(T=0.

Site-dependent deterministic SA(T=1.0 sec) values in units of g .

Moderate Damage Distribution of Mid-Rise Pre-1980 R/C Buildings .

Extensive Damage Distribution of Mid-Rise Pre-1980 R/C Buildings .

Complete Damage Distribution of Mid-Rise Pre-1980 R/C Buildings .

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GREATER AMMAN MUNICIPALITY (GAM)-JORDAN EARTHQUAKE RISK ASSESSMENT PROJECT .

Boundaries of Greater Amman Municipality districts .

Geo-Grid mesh for the study (cell size 500x500m). .

Geological map of GAM .

A census block at city center of GAM with 500x500 Geo-Grid layer .

1-3 Floors (One Building of 2 Floors ) Before After > <1985 1985 Concrete Type Reinforced Steel Type X Grids Spaces Y Grids Spaces Floor Height Internal Column Dimension (Floor 1) Internal Column Dimension (Floor 2) External Column Dimesinon (Floor 1) External Column Dimesinon (Floor 2) Shear wall Thickness Internal Beam Dimensions External Beam Dimesions Slab Type Slab Thickness Average Percenatge of Steel in Columns (%) Average Percenatge of Steel in Beam (%) 200 kg/cm2 275 Mpa 4.6 0.Building Parameters for Skeleton Type.5 m 4.8 0.0 m 4.0 m 3.8 .0 m 30 x 30 cm 30 x 30 cm 30 x 30 cm 30 x 30 cm no 30 x 50 cm 30 x 50 cm RC solid slab 15 cm 0.5-3.0 -2.5 m 3.5 300 kg/cm2 400 Mpa 4.75 m 25 x 50 cm 25 x 50 cm 25 x 50 cm 25 x 50 cm 30 cm 70x25 cm 50x25 cm Rib slap 25 0.

1-3 Stories.Structural Model RC skeleton. post 1985 Buildings Type (112) . 1-3 Stories. pre 1985 Buildings Type (111) Structural Model RC skeleton.

05 0.25 0.20 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.15 0.10 Capacity Curve Linearized Bilinear 0.30 0.Capacity Curve Computations Capacity Curve ( +X Direction) 0.00 0.00 0.20 Sa (g) 0.25 Sd (m) .

Fragility Curve Estimation .

Example of site-dependent deterministic strong ground motion distribution ..

Thank you .

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