Polling Memo from Donna Victoria for David Gill for Congress...

http://www.gill2012.org/polling-memo-from-donna-victoria/

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Polling Memo from Donna Victoria

Published on: October 1, 2012
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TO: FROM: DATE:

David Gill for Congress, IL-13 Donna Victoria, Victoria Research & Consulting September 30, 2012

This memorandum reports on the ndings of a poll taken in the 13th Congressional District of Illinois September 26-27, 2012. Four hundred registered, likely voters for November 2012 were interviewed. The poll was designed to track the progress of the congressional campaign of Dr. David Gill for Congress. All questions about this memo or its contents should be referred to Donna Victoria ( donnaV@victoriaresearch.com ). We knew that in the post-Citizens United, anything goes political environment of 2012, a candidate like Democratic nominee Dr. David Gill in the 13th District would face unrestrained,

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10/1/12 11:07 AM

Polling Memo from Donna Victoria for David Gill for Congress...

http://www.gill2012.org/polling-memo-from-donna-victoria/

negative, and false attacks from the corporate special interests and lobbyists who fear a candidate who says he will not take one penny of their money that tries to inuence his vote. We knew that. What we did not know was just how tough the good doctor could be in the face of such attacks. The amounts spent to smear Dr. Gill have been astounding. So far, at least $1 milion has been spent by his opponents on mostly negative attacks against Dr. Gill on the airwaves and yet, Dr. David Gill still holds the slimmest of leads over his Republican opponent, career political operative Rodney Davis. Key results are as follows:

The initial trial heat in this district is 40% for David Gill, 8% for John Hartman (Independent), and 39% for Rodney Davis, with the remainder undecided. Davis continues to run a weak and substance-free campaign, and it shows; only 17% of voters say they have heard anything in the campaign that makes them feel more positive towards Davis. He has coalesced the Republican base in the district, but he has been unable to expand his appeal to the middle of the electorate. Dr. Gill, on the other hand, is building support among key voter cohorts that he needs in order to win, and leads over Rodney Davis on all the substantive measures in this brief poll:

When asked who will prevent tax increases on the middle class a plurality of voters chooses Gill over Davis. When asked who understands the challenges facing ordinary working people voters choose Gill over Davis by an even wider margin. There is one item where Rodney Davis is in the lead; when voters are asked who will cut your Medicare coverage Rodney is in the lead by 23 percentage points! Apparently, all the big-money negative attacks in the world are not going to convince the sensible voters of central and southwest Illinois that a family physician and ER doctor who has been a long-time advocate of expanding Medicare for All is the one who is going to gut Medicare. In fact, the latest attack ad against Dr. Gill on this issue was so outrageous it got the Liar, Liar, Pants on re rating from Politifact.

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Polling Memo from Donna Victoria for David Gill for Congress...

http://www.gill2012.org/polling-memo-from-donna-victoria/

This race will be close right down to the wire, and we can count on the big money continuing its scurrilous course while Dr. Gill continues to talk about creating good jobs here instead of shipping them overseas, about the importance of a safety net for seniors after they have paid into Social Security and Medicare with a lifetime of work, and the real-life concerns he hears from people he meets on the campaign trail and in the ER every day. We hope that the voters will be able to hear his positive message over the din. #END#

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davidgill2012 politifact.com/trutho-meter/ via @politifact #IL13 #rodneydavis #PANTSONFIRE

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davidgill2012 Politifact: The NRCC ad

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saying that Gill would end Medicare "completely distorts the plan in an attempt to scare seniors. Pants on Fire!"
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Polling Memo from Donna Victoria for David Gill for Congress...

http://www.gill2012.org/polling-memo-from-donna-victoria/

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