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Ahmad Ijaz Center for Business and Economic Research Culverhouse College of Commerce and Business Administration The University of Alabama http://cber.cba.ua.edu (205) 348-6191

NAAACC Business and Economic Annual Expo
Huntsville, Alabama September 13, 2012

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!   Economic recovery has lost momentum, but has not

come to a halt
!   Inventory cycle caused relatively strong growth in

late 2011 and early 2012
!   2.1 percent economic growth expected for U.S. in

2012 and 1.8 percent for 2013, chance of another recession is currently at 25 percent
!   Commercial and industrial loan market is gradually

reviving
!   Economy will require much faster job growth for a

sustained recovery
Center for Business and Economic Research, The University of Alabama 2

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!   State and local governments continue to lay off

workers
!   Relatively tight credit and loan markets !   Housing markets remain weak and distressed !   Rising gasoline and food prices !   External risks (Eurozone and China) !   Lack of income growth !   Job growth stalling

Center for Business and Economic Research, The University of Alabama

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Source: University of Michigan.

Center for Business and Economic Research, The University of Alabama

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Source: Federal Reserve Board.

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Source:

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(Percent  change  unless  otherwise  noted)   Real GDP Consumption Residential Investment Commercial, Healthcare Structures Nonresidential Fixed Investment Federal Government State & Local Government Exports Imports Payroll Employment Unemployment Rate CPI Inflation Light Vehicle Sales (Millions)
Source: IHS Global Insight, August 2012.

2009 -3.5 -1.9 -22.2 -30.7 -18.1 6.1 2.2 -9.1 -13.5 -4.4 9.3 -0.3 10.40

2010 3.0 1.8 -3.7 -25.0 0.7 4.5 -1.8 11.1 12.5 -0.7 9.6 1.6 11.55

2011 1.7 2.5 -1.4 -2.3 8.6 -2.8 -3.4 6.7 4.8 1.2 9.0 3.1 12.73

2012 2.1 1.9 11.6 6.5 8.6 -2.8 -1.7 4.0 3.7 1.4 8.2 2.0 14.13

2013 1.8 2.1 11.2 4.9 4.8 -3.1 -0.9 4.3 3.8 1.4 8.0 1.6 14.81

Center for Business and Economic Research, The University of Alabama

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100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Retail Trade 12.44 Manufacturing 12.71 Share of Total Nonfarm Employment 1 Education and Health Services 11.52 Leisure and Hospitality 8.85 Professional and Business Services 11.60 Government 20.18 Education and Health Services 8.12 Leisure and Hospitality 2.77 Professional and Business Services 9.78 Government 17.12 Retail Trade 7.20 Manufacturing 16.31 Share of Alabama Gross Domestic Product 2
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Rest of Sectors 22.72 Rest of Sectors 38.71

Source: Alabama Department of Industrial Relations.

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Monthly Employment Indicators (July 2012)
Not Seasonally Adjusted Civilian Labor Force Percent Change from Year Ago Level Absolute Change from Year Ago Level Employed Percent Change from Year Ago Level Absolute Change from Year Ago Level Unemployed Percent Change from Year Ago Level Absolute Change from Year Ago Level 2,175,298 -1.2% -25,726 1,980,599 -0.5% -9,390 194,699 -7.7% -16,336 Seasonally Adjusted 2,157,890 -1.5% -31,920 1,978,355 -0.5% -9,144 179,535 -11.3% -22,776

Alabama Unemployment Rate 9.0% 8.3% Alabama Unemployment Rate (July 2011) 9.6% 9.2% U.S. Unemployment Rate 8.6% 8.3% U.S. Unemployment Rate (July 2011) 9.3% 9.1% Source: Alabama Department of Industrial Relations, Labor Market Information Division.

Center for Business and Economic Research, The University of Alabama

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Alabama Nonagricultural Employment Change in Number of Jobs
July 2010 to July 2011 Total Nonagricultural Natural Resources and Mining Construction Manufacturing Durable Goods Manufacturing Nondurable Goods Manufacturing Trade, Transportation and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government Federal Government State Government Local Government -6,700 400 -8,800 1,500 2,300 -800 6,400 700 3,600 2,100 -800 700 -1,900 -400 3,300 -300 -6,800 -3,000 -3,000 -800 July 2011 to July 2012 5,700 -200 -6,300 3,400 3,900 -500 3,400 -500 5,900 -2,000 -700 900 4,100 1,500 7,300 1,300 -9,000 -1,300 -8,000 300

Source: Alabama Department of Industrial Relations, Labor Market Information Division.

Center for Business and Economic Research, The University of Alabama

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Tax

Total Collection

Percent Change From Year Ago 3.9% 3.8% 4.4%

Change in Revenue from Year Ago Level $283,458,365 $117,921,941 $77,724,003

Total Income (Individual) Sales

$8,202,824,805 $3,231,344,136 $1,829,759,457

Source: Alabama Department of Revenue.

Center for Business and Economic Research, The University of Alabama

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Total Monthly Nonfarm Employment and Unemployment Rate
2,050 2,000 Nonfarm Employment 1,950 1,900 1,850 1,800 1,750 1,700 1,650 1,600 JAN 1990

Employment (Thousands), Unemployment Rate (Percent) January 1990 – July 2012

11 10 Unemployment Rate
12

Employment

9 8 7 6 5 4 3

Unemployment Rate
JAN 1993 JAN 1995 JAN 1997 JAN 1999 JAN 2001 JAN 2003 JAN 2005 JAN 2007 JAN 2009 JAN 2011 JAN 2012

2

Source: Alabama Department of Industrial Relations. Center for Business and Economic Research, The University of Alabama

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Total Annual Nonfarm Employment and Unemployment Rate
2,100

Employment (Thousands), Unemployment Rate (Percent) 1990-2012

12

2,000

10

Employment
Nonfarm Employment
1,900 8

1,800

6

1,700

4

Unemployment Rate
1,600 2

1,500 199 0 199 1 199 2 199 3 199 4 199 5 199 6 199 7 199 8 199 9 200 0 200 1 200 2 200 3 200 4 200 5 200 6 200 7 200 8 200 9 201 0 201 1 201 2

0

Source: Alabama Department of Industrial Relations. Center for Business and Economic Research, The University of Alabama 13

Unemployment Rate

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Change in Alabama Employment From the Beginning of the Recession
104 102 100 98 96 94 92 90 88 86 84 1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 Number of months 41 46 51 56
14

(Number of Months)

1980 1981 1990 2001 2007

Center for Business and Economic Research, The University of Alabama

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70 65 60 55

Index

50 45 40 35 30

50.2

31.5
Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

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Q3 2012 compared to Q2 2012
Much Better Somewhat Better Remain the Same Somewhat Worse Much Worse 0 1.1 6.6 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 23.8 32.6 1.1 1.1 19.4 44.7 40.3

Alabama
29.3

National

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Q3 2012 compared to Q2 2012
Strong Increase 0.0 0.4 33.0 39.2 38.5 40.7 27.1 18.7 1.5 1.1 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

Sales

Profits

Moderate Increase

No Change

Moderate Decrease

Strong Decrease

Center for Business and Economic Research, The University of Alabama

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Q3 2012 compared to Q2 2012
Strong Increase 1.1 0.4 24.2 20.5 54.5 59.7 16.9 16.5 3.3 2.9 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Hiring Plans Capital Expenditures

Moderate Increase

No Change

Moderate Decrease

Strong Decrease

Center for Business and Economic Research, The University of Alabama

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100 90 80 70

Index

60 50 40 30 20 10 0

51.6

55.0 55.8 47.9

51.4

45.5

50.8

56.8 50.2

Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2010 2011 2012

Center for Business and Economic Research, The University of Alabama

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! 

This Alabama GDP and employment forecast summary is the CBER July 2012 preliminary forecast Preliminary 2013 forecast included below

! 

Probability: Forecast (60 Percent) and Range (90 percent) (Percent  change)   Real GDP range Employment range Total Tax Receipts, FY range -2.5 5.0 -0.8 2010 2.3 2011 1.5 0.5 to 2.5 -0.2 2012 2.0 1.5 to 3.0 0.5 0.1 to 1.5 4.0 3.5 to 4.5 2013 2.1 1.8 to 3.5 1.5 0.7 to 2.3 4.1 3.0 to 7.0

CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH, THE UNIVERSITY OF ALABAMA

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100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
2.11 2.16 31.20 20.05

100% Non-metro areas 90% 80%
4.94 8.65 9.18 23.65

Tuscaloosa Montgomery Mobile Huntsville

5.13

70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%

8.72 9.36

Gadsden
12.11 1.53 2.38 2.67 2.83 11.04 1.88 3.00 3.00 2.85

Florence-Muscle Shoals Dothan Decatur Birmingham-Hoover

26.10

Auburn-Opelika
2.87 2.58

Anniston-Oxford

Alabama GDP by Metro Area

Alabama Employment by Metro Area

Source: Alabama Department of Industrial Relations, U.S. Bureau for Economic Analysis.

Center for Business and Economic Research, The University of Alabama

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4/1/2010 Alabama Anniston-Oxford Auburn-Opelika Birmingham-Hoover Decatur Dothan Florence-Muscle Shoals Gadsden Huntsville Mobile Montgomery Tuscaloosa
Source: U.S. Census Bureau.

4/1/2000 to 4/1/2010 Number Percent Change Change 332,636 6,323 25,155 75,809 7,962 14,778 4,187 971 75,217 13,149 28,008 27,427 7.5 5.6 21.9 7.2 5.5 11.3 2.9 0.9 22.0 3.3 8.1 14.3

4,779,736 118,572 140,247 1,128,047 153,829 145,639 147,137 104,430 417,593 412,992 374,536 219,461

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July 2011

July 2012

Alabama
Anniston-Oxford Auburn-Opelika Birmingham-Hoover Decatur Dothan Florence-Muscle Shoals Gadsden Huntsville Mobile Montgomery Tuscaloosa

9.6%
9.8 7.8 8.8 9.3 8.7 9.1 9.8 8.1 10.7 9.4 9.8

9.0%
9.4 8.1 7.9 8.7 8.4 8.6 8.8 7.7 10.1 8.9 9.2

Source: Alabama Department of Industrial Relations, Labor Market Information Division.

Center for Business and Economic Research, The University of Alabama

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Nonfarm Employment Alabama Anniston-Oxford Auburn-Opelika Birmingham-Hoover Decatur Dothan Florence-Muscle Shoals Gadsden* Huntsville* Mobile* Montgomery Tuscaloosa* Net Jobs in Metropolitan Areas Net Jobs in Nonmetro Counties

2007 or 2008 Peak Year 2,003,800 53,500 54,800 531,300 58,500 63,100 57,300 38,100 214,300 184,700 179,200 98,500

Job Loss to 2011 Number Percent -134,800 -6.7 -4,800 -9.0 -2,200 -4.0 -43,200 -8.1 -5,100 -8.7 -7,000 -11.1 -1,800 -3.1 -2,900 -7.6 -6,600 -3.1 -9,800 -5.3 -13,200 -7.4 -5,800 -5.9 -102,400 -32,400

* Gadsden, Huntsville, Mobile, and Tuscaloosa employment peaked in 2008; all others saw peaks in 2007. Note: Nonfarm employment (jobs) is by place of work. Data are January to November averages. Source: Alabama Department of Industrial Relations and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Center for Business and Economic Research, The University of Alabama

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July  2012   Net  change     July  2011   Net  change     Industry   employment   since  July  2011   employment   since  July  2010   Total  Non-­‐agricultural   204,600   -­‐2,100   206,700   -­‐2,100   Goods  Producing   27,700   -­‐1,700   29,400   -­‐1,700   Natural  Resources,  Mining,  &  ConstrucBon   6,600   -­‐500   7,100   -­‐400   Manufacturing   21,100   -­‐1,200   22,300   -­‐1,300   -­‐Durable  Goods   18,200   -­‐900   19,100   -­‐1,300   -­‐-­‐Computer  &  Electronic  Products   5,900   -­‐600   6,500   -­‐700   -­‐-­‐TransportaBon  Equipment   6,600   100   6,500   -­‐800   -­‐Nondurable  Goods   2,900   -­‐300   3,200   0   Service  Providing   176,900   -­‐400   177,300   -­‐400   Trade,  TransportaBon,  Warehousing,  &  UBliBes   30,200   100   30,100   200   -­‐Wholesale  Trade   5,600   100   5,500   0   -­‐Retail  Trade   22,100   0   22,100   300   -­‐-­‐General  Merchandise  Stores   5,800   -­‐300   6,100   200   -­‐TransportaBon,  Warehousing,  and  UBliBes   2,500   0   2,500   -­‐100   InformaBon   2,500   -­‐100   2,600   0   Financial  AcBvity   6,200   100   6,100   -­‐100   Professional  and  Business  Services   45,200   -­‐1,800   47,000   -­‐1,500   -­‐Professional,  ScienBfic,  and  Technical  Services   31,300   -­‐1,200   32,500   -­‐1,000   EducaBon  and  Health  Services   17,500   300   17,200   200   Leisure  and  Hospitality   18,800   600   18,200   -­‐200   -­‐Food  Services  and  drinking  places   15,100   400   14,700   0   Other  Services   7,700   200   7,500   100   Government   48,800   200   48,600   900   Source:    Alabama  Department  of  Industrial  RelaBons,  U.S.  Bureau  of  20,900   Labor  StaBsBcs.   -­‐Federal   -­‐200   21,100   1,100   -­‐State   5,800   300   5,500   0   Center for Business and Economic Research,22,000   The University of Alabama -­‐Local   22,100   100   -­‐200  

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Industry   Total  Non-­‐agricultural   Goods  Producing   Natural  Resources,  Mining,  &   ConstrucBon   Manufacturing   Service  Providing   Trade,  TransportaBon,  Warehousing,  &   UBliBes   -­‐Wholesale  Trade   -­‐Retail  Trade  

July  2012   employment   54,900   11,000   3,200   7,800   43,900   11,600   2,300   8,300  

Net  change     since  July  2011   1,000   -­‐100   -­‐200   100   1,100   400   0   400   0   0   0   0   100   300   100   200   -­‐100   300  

July  2011   employment   53,900   11,100   3,400   7,700   42,800   11,200   2,300   7,900   1,000   500   2,100   4,100   6,700   5,500   3,400   9,300   1,400   7,900  

Net  change     since  July  2010   -­‐300   500   200   300   -­‐800   -­‐300   -­‐500   200   0   0   0   -­‐100   -­‐100   100   0   -­‐400   0   -­‐400  

-­‐TransportaBon,  Warehousing,  and   1,000   UBliBes   InformaBon   500   Financial  AcBvity   2,100   Professional  and  Business  Services   4,100   EducaBon  and  Health  Services   6,800   Leisure  and  Hospitality   5,800   Other  Services   3,500   Government   9,500   -­‐Federal   1,300   -­‐State  a  nd  Local   epartment  of  Industrial  RelaBons,  U.S.  Bureau  of  Labor  StaBsBcs.   8,200   Source:   Alabama  D

Center for Business and Economic Research, The University of Alabama

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102   101   100   99   98   97   96   95   94   93   92   1   4   7   10   13   16   19   22   25   28   31   34   37   40   43   46   49   52   55   58  
Source:    EsBmates  based  on  Alabama  Department  of  Industrial  RelaBons  data.  

1990   2001   2007  

Center for Business and Economic Research, The University of Alabama

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102   101   100   99   98   97   96   95   94   93   92   1   5   9   13   17   21   25   29   33   37   41   45   49   53   57   1990   2001   2007  

Source:    EsBmates  based  on  Alabama  Department  of  Industrial  RelaBons  data.  

Center for Business and Economic Research, The University of Alabama

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Alabama Birmingham-Hoover Huntsville Mobile Montgomery 0 10 20 30

50.2 52.8 48.3 48.9 53.1
40 50 60

Center for Business and Economic Research, The University of Alabama

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100 90 80

Index

70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Q3 Q4 2010

60.3 55.3 45.6 54.5 49.9 43.7 47.0 55.0 48.3

Q1

Q2 Q3 2011

Q4

Q1

Q2 2012

Q3

Center for Business and Economic Research, The University of Alabama

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Business Environment Expectations Q3 2012 compared to Q2 2012
National Economic Outlook
Better Remain the Same Worse 0 10 20 30

15.4 42.3 42.3
40 50

Percent

Alabama Economic Outlook
Better Remain the Same Worse 0 10

21.8 53.8 24.4
20 30 40 50 60

Percent

Center for Business and Economic Research, The University of Alabama

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Industry Performance Expectations Q3 2012 compared to Q2 2012
Sales
Increase No Change Decrease 0 10

35.8 38.5 25.6
20 30 40 50 60

Percent

Profits
Increase No Change Decrease 0 10

26.9 43.6 29.5
20 30 40 50 60

Percent

Center for Business and Economic Research, The University of Alabama

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Industry Performance Expectations Q3 2012 compared to Q2 2012
Hiring Plans
Increase No Change Decrease 0 10

21.8 52.6 25.6
20 30 40 50 60

Percent

Capital Expenditures
Increase No Change Decrease 0 10

20.5 55.1 24.4
20 30 40 50 60

Percent

Center for Business and Economic Research, The University of Alabama

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65 60 55

Huntsville

Index

50 45 40 35 30 25 Q1 Q3 2007 Q1 Q3 2008 Q1 Q3 2009 Q1 Q3 2010 Q1 Q3 2011 Q1 Q3 2012

Alabama

Center for Business and Economic Research, The University of Alabama

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Ahmad Ijaz Center for Business and Economic Research Culverhouse College of Commerce and Business Administration The University of Alabama http://cber.cba.ua.edu (205) 348-6191

Center for Business and Economic Research, The University of Alabama

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