Platform  Wars

Benedict  Evans @benedictevans Enders  Analysis

‘The  Year  Of  Mobile’
Use  of  the  term  ‘Year  of  Mobile’  online

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012
Google

One  Billion  Smart  Devices
Million  cumulative  activations 600

450

300

150

0 Jun-­‐07 iOS

May-­‐08

Apr-­‐09

Mar-­‐10

Feb-­‐11

Jan-­‐12

Dec-­‐12

Android

Apple,  Google,  Enders  Analysis

Mobile  Overtaking  PC
Million  quarterly  unit  shipments 150 125 100 75 50 25 0 2009 PCs 2010 Smartphones Tablets 2011 2012
Gartner,  Enders  Analysis

Speed  Accelerating
Million  cumulative  shipments  by  quarters  from  launch 90 75 60 45 30 15 0

1 iPhone

2 iPad

3

4

5

6

7

8

9
Apple

Social
Million  Facebook  active  users 1,000

750

500

250

0 March  2009 Mobile PC  only

March  2010

March  2011

March  2012
Facebook

Scale
Billion  users 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Mobile  connections Internet  users Smartphone  users Facebook  users
Enders  Analysis

Four  Platforms
Million  platform  users 500 400 300 200 100 0

Apple  iOS

Google  Android

Facebook  mobile

Amazon

Apple,  Google,  Facebook,  Amazon,  Enders  Analysis

Platforms  Capture  Value
Apple Google Facebook Amazon

Sell  devices Apps  and   content  lock-­‐in

Advertising

Advertising

Ecommerce

Search

Social

Scale  and  cost

Devices
Quarterly  mobile  phone  revenue  ($bn) 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Apple Q2  2011 Samsung Nokia Others Q2  2012
Companies,  Enders  Analysis

Advertising
2011  global  internet  advertising  revenue  (bn)

2011  global  internet  ad   market:  $73bn Google  had  about  half 1.5bn  internet  users $49  per  user
Google 3 33 37

• • •

Facebook

Other

Facebook,  Google,  Enders  Analysis

Same  tactic,  different  strategy
Base  model  tablet  pricing  ($) 500 400 300 200 100 0

Fire Amazon

Fire  HD Apple

Fire  HD  9"

iPad  Mini?

iPad  2

iPad

Amazon,  Apple,  Enders  Analysis

Amazon
Amazon  as  %  US  non-­‐food  retail  revenue 3%

2%

1%

0% Dec  2009

June  2010

Dec  2010

June  2011

Dec  2011

June  2012

Amazon,  Federal  Reserve

Ecommerce  Machine
Amazon  North  American  revenue  ($m) 10,000

7,500

5,000

2,500

0

Dec  2009

Jun  2010

Dec  2010

Jun  2011

Dec  2011

Jun  2012
Amazon

Media

General  Merchandise

Not  A  Books  Company
Media  as  a  percentage  of  Amazon’s  North  America  revenue 50 40 30 20 10 0 Dec  2009

Jun  2010

Dec  2010

Jun  2011

Dec  2011

Jun  2012
Amazon

So  What  About  Books?

“Our  competitors  aren't  taking  our  market  share   with  devices;  they  are  taking  our  market  share   with  an  entire  ecosystem.”

Nokia

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