Purchasing Managers’ Index

October 1, 2012

PMI drops to 44.7 in September – the downward trend in
industry continues
The PMI fell from 45.1 in August to 44.7 in September, landing outside the growth
zone for the second consecutive month. This indicates that Swedish industry’s
resistance to the poor global economy continues to weaken.
The indices for production and employment pulled the PMI downward while new
orders, inventories, and delivery times made positive contributions. All of the
component indices were outside of the growth zone, which indicates a broad
downward trend in the industrial economy.
Industrial companies’ production plans were scaled back, reaching 47.8 in
September, which is the lowest level since May 2009. Weak new orders and smaller
order backlogs are hampering companies’ plans to expand, which also has
consequences for their hiring plans.
Pressure from producers to increase prices remains low, though the index for
suppliers’ commodity and intermediate goods prices rose for the second
consecutive month from 41.5 in August to 42.4 in September. Falling global
commodity prices and the strong krona are contributing to the limited price pressure.
75

Purchasing Managers' Index
70

PMI

65

(Purchasing Managers’
Index)

Seasonally adjusted
60

55
50
45
40

Unadjusted
Seasonally adjusted

35
30
25

94 95

96

97

98

99

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

11 12

Next publication of Purchasing Managers’ Index: Thursday November 1, 2012

Jörgen Kennemar, Swedbank, Economic Research Department, +46 (0)8-5859 7730
Administration, +46 (0)8-5859 7740, ek.sekr@swedbank.se
Sebastian Bergfelt, Silf, +46 (0)73-944 6450, professionals@silf.se
1 (4)

2012 Sep. 44.7
Aug. 45.1
Jul. 50.6
Jun. 48.4
May 49.0
Apr. 50.2
Mar. 50.2
Feb. 50.3
Jan. 51.4
2011 Dec. 48.9
Nov. 47.6
Oct. 49.8
Sep. 48.1
aug 48,7
jul 50,1

Silf/Swedbanks’ Purchasing Managers’ Index. seasonally adjusted
PMI

Components of PMI

Total
Index

New
orders

Production

Employment

Other indices
Delivery
times

Inventories

Export
orders

Forecast
Domestic Back-log
orders
of orders

Prices

Planned
Import Production

2009 Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec

50.5
54.3
52.4
55.9
56.7
56.0
58.2

54.7
60.5
57.8
59.2
60.8
57.9
63.7

55.8
61.0
56.1
60.5
61.7
59.0
59.7

36.0
40.3
40.6
45.0
43.8
48.7
49.5

42.4
44.4
46.4
53.7
56.2
55.0
56.3

34.0
38.4
40.4
40.6
41.6
41.3
42.7

54.4
56.4
61.1
61.1
60.7
59.7
58.1

49.2
58.1
50.1
55.0
55.8
53.6
66.3

47.4
54.1
54.3
54.0
58.9
53.6
56.6

43.3
46.9
52.6
54.5
56.7
59.8
57.3

47.3
51.0
50.7
55.7
55.8
57.0
59.0

55.2
59.1
61.7
63.3
62.2
62.2
67.4

2010 Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec

61.7
61.5
61.1
64.0
66.0
62.4
64.2
60.6
63.3
61.8
61.3
60.2

66.8
67.5
63.8
68.1
68.8
61.1
67.3
61.8
65.8
63.0
60.4
63.6

70.2
65.3
63.7
66.3
71.0
66.8
72.2
61.9
67.4
63.5
64.2
62.8

49.6
55.0
54.9
56.6
60.1
60.3
56.3
60.5
60.3
59.0
60.2
57.1

61.5
61.4
67.0
68.3
71.5
69.2
66.4
64.5
66.3
66.8
67.2
64.5

48.3
53.6
50.2
46.0
50.7
50.4
51.4
52.0
52.9
47.9
50.2
55.5

62.3
62.7
62.3
64.6
62.6
57.4
61.4
57.4
61.4
61.6
58.9
60.5

64.8
63.6
58.9
63.2
64.1
60.1
63.2
58.7
62.9
58.2
56.3
63.6

62.6
64.2
60.6
62.5
64.3
60.9
63.4
59.7
62.2
61.7
58.2
59.5

61.2
61.3
65.7
75.6
71.0
71.1
70.9
68.5
71.1
66.4
70.8
71.9

61.3
59.7
62.3
60.3
59.9
59.5
60.9
56.1
58.6
59.3
61.4
59.7

69.5
68.1
69.6
77.5
73.0
73.1
72.0
72.4
70.8
72.4
72.5
74.0

2011 Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec

61.5
60.9
58.6
59.8
56.1
52.9
50.1
48.7
48.1
49.8
47.6
48.9

64.2
59.5
56.1
61.5
55.4
52.3
45.4
47.0
46.5
50.5
47.1
47.0

64.9
65.0
61.4
61.9
59.8
54.0
49.4
48.6
48.9
48.2
46.2
49.2

57.7
61.1
58.3
57.7
54.4
51.3
53.7
50.9
50.0
50.7
48.3
49.5

64.6
67.2
66.0
65.1
61.0
58.1
55.4
49.1
47.5
47.8
45.6
49.9

51.9
54.4
52.0
54.6
55.6
51.4
50.1
51.5
52.0
47.1
46.0
48.3

61.9
58.8
54.7
58.3
52.8
52.5
46.9
48.0
48.3
48.9
47.5
48.7

62.1
56.3
54.0
56.9
56.4
48.8
43.4
42.3
46.2
49.1
46.1
45.1

60.2
58.0
54.3
57.3
55.3
51.0
49.1
47.9
47.0
48.9
45.1
46.4

77.1
77.1
73.8
74.5
63.5
60.5
51.5
47.4
47.0
39.9
42.6
42.6

58.6
60.2
58.9
58.5
56.2
52.2
50.4
48.5
45.8
46.8
44.5
46.5

70.9
71.0
71.6
70.5
69.1
64.5
63.1
55.8
53.8
53.6
51.6
59.3

2012 Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep

51.4
50.3
50.2
50.2
49.0
48.4
50.6
45.1
44.7

52.0
49.5
50.5
51.2
49.2
46.4
51.2
41.1
42.1

52.9
51.9
48.6
51.2
51.2
50.9
54.0
45.8
43.9

48.0
48.3
49.5
46.7
46.3
46.7
47.7
45.1
43.0

51.0
52.6
49.3
49.3
46.9
46.8
46.9
45.1
45.2

47.0
51.2
43.7
46.3
47.9
46.0
48.2
45.2
42.9

49.9
48.7
50.1
52.3
51.1
50.3
52.3
43.2
41.4

49.0
48.5
48.6
48.3
44.9
44.1
47.3
41.3
40.0

50.6
48.0
48.6
52.7
47.0
46.9
48.5
41.9
40.3

50.3
52.5
55.3
52.3
45.8
44.0
38.7
41.5
42.4

50.3
50.6
47.9
48.6
46.5
48.5
52.4
45.5
45.3

56.2
57.7
56.5
55.0
54.5
53.7
54.9
48.6
47.8

2 (4)

Silf/Swedbanks’ Purchasing Managers’ Index
PMI

Components of PMI

Total
Index

Neworders

Production

Employment

Other indices
Delivery
times

Inventories

Export
orders

Domestic Back-log
orders
of orders

Forecast
Prices

Planned
Import Production

2009 Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec

53.9
50.7
56.2
57.7
56.1
53.9
54.2

59.4
55.7
62.9
59.9
58.6
53.8
57.9

60.8
51.3
62.9
63.6
61.1
56.1
53.5

39.1
40.8
41.9
46.7
43.6
48.1
47.2

45.5
46.9
49.3
56.6
57.2
53.5
52.8

37.3
40.7
41.5
40.4
40.4
39.3
39.3

58.3
53.5
64.6
61.2
58.1
56.1
61.6

53.5
53.6
55.3
57.1
54.7
50.8
52.8

50.3
53.1
60.2
54.0
55.0
48.5
50.8

45.1
47.4
54.5
57.0
56.8
56.9
52.8

50.0
47.3
53.9
57.8
54.7
55.4
56.0

54.6
59.2
64.7
62.9
59.6
59.5
65.7

2010 Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec

59.7
62.2
62.4
66.0
67.8
65.3
60.3
63.9
64.8
60.9
58.9
56.0

65.4
70.4
66.7
70.9
70.8
64.9
62.1
66.3
66.2
60.5
55.9
57.6

67.7
66.3
66.4
69.6
73.6
71.2
62.4
68.0
70.2
62.5
61.0
56.2

47.2
54.3
54.5
58.0
62.1
63.2
56.3
61.5
61.7
58.4
59.4
54.3

57.9
59.4
66.6
69.2
73.6
71.8
68.2
66.7
68.7
67.3
65.3
60.5

49.2
52.9
51.4
46.8
52.5
53.6
53.6
53.0
52.6
46.3
47.9
52.1

61.7
65.5
64.8
66.6
64.0
60.4
58.0
60.4
61.4
58.9
55.2
55.9

62.3
65.0
60.3
65.4
66.1
63.7
58.4
63.4
64.9
56.6
53.1
58.3

61.5
66.9
63.4
64.9
66.9
63.2
62.1
65.1
61.9
57.6
52.8
53.4

59.4
60.6
66.1
79.3
74.4
72.5
70.8
69.7
73.2
65.8
67.6
67.2

60.1
59.8
64.2
61.7
61.6
61.6
56.8
58.7
60.3
57.9
59.7
56.6

70.6
70.2
71.6
79.9
73.4
72.0
71.6
75.0
70.0
69.5
69.6
72.2

2011 Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec

59.4
61.5
59.6
61.7
57.7
55.6
45.8
51.7
49.4
48.9
45.2
44.8

62.7
62.2
58.6
64.3
57.3
56.1
39.7
51.3
46.8
48.1
42.6
41.2

62.3
65.9
63.9
65.0
62.3
58.1
39.2
54.4
51.6
47.1
42.9
42.8

54.9
60.3
57.6
58.9
56.1
54.1
53.5
51.7
51.3
50.0
47.4
46.7

60.6
65.0
65.4
65.8
62.9
59.9
56.9
50.7
49.4
48.1
43.5
46.0

50.7
53.7
53.1
55.4
57.5
54.8
52.0
52.4
51.6
45.1
43.4
44.8

61.5
61.6
56.9
60.3
54.0
55.8
43.1
50.7
48.1
46.2
43.8
44.2

59.6
57.4
55.1
59.0
58.4
52.4
38.1
46.6
48.1
47.7
42.9
39.9

59.0
60.5
56.8
59.6
57.8
53.7
47.5
53.0
46.5
44.9
39.6
40.4

75.3
76.4
74.0
78.1
66.2
61.8
50.5
47.7
48.4
38.5
39.0
37.7

57.3
60.3
60.8
59.9
57.8
54.0
46.0
50.7
47.1
45.2
42.6
43.4

71.7
72.8
73.4
72.8
69.4
63.1
62.4
57.8
52.5
50.3
48.4
57.7

2012 Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep

49.6
51.1
51.5
52.4
50.8
51.2
46.6
48.0
45.9

51.0
52.4
53.3
54.4
51.3
50.0
45.8
45.0
42.1

50.7
53.1
51.3
54.7
54.0
55.3
44.2
51.5
46.3

45.2
47.6
49.0
48.0
48.0
49.4
47.7
45.9
44.2

47.3
50.7
49.0
50.3
49.0
49.4
48.7
46.8
47.2

45.5
50.7
44.6
47.2
50.0
49.1
50.3
46.1
42.5

49.7
51.7
52.6
54.7
52.6
53.4
48.7
45.6
40.9

46.9
50.0
50.0
50.7
47.0
47.5
42.2
45.3
41.7

49.7
50.7
51.3
55.5
50.0
49.1
47.1
46.8
39.6

49.0
52.5
56.3
56.5
49.0
45.1
37.7
41.9
43.9

49.3
51.0
50.0
50.3
48.3
50.6
48.4
47.7
46.6

57.2
59.8
58.6
57.5
55.0
52.5
54.5
50.6
46.4

3 (4)

4 (4)

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