Purchasing Managers’ Index – Services

October 3, 2012

Services PMI drops to 47.3 in September: activity in the
service sector is on the decline
The purchasing managers’ index for services (Services PMI) fell by 3.4 points from
50.7 in August to 47.3 in September. The upward trend of late summer has thus
ended and the index level indicates that the service economy has weakened.
All of the Services PMI’s component indices except for employment decreased in
September, and all of the indices landed outside of the growth zone. The index for
business activity made the largest negative contribution, closely followed by new
orders. The index for supplier delivery times also decreased somewhat.
The index for order backlogs decreased, as did the index for planned business
activity, indicating that while service companies are planning for continued
expansion, they are scaling back these plans somewhat. The employment index
rose, which suggests that service companies’ need to cut back on new hires has
moderated somewhat.
The index for suppliers’ intermediate goods prices fell from 51.2 in August to 50.7 in
September. A weaker global economy and faltering domestic demand probably
contributed to the decrease in price pressure.

Services PMI
(Purchasing Managers’
Index - Services)

Seasonally adjusted
2012 Sep. 47.3
Aug. 50.7
Jul. 54.7
Jun. 47.3
May 47.7
Apr. 48.5
Mar. 52.5
Feb. 54.0
2011 Jan. 54.3
Dec. 51.0
Nov. 48.8
Oct. 48.9
Sep. 51.7

Next publication of the Purchasing Managers’ Index – Services: Monday November 5, 2012

Magnus Alvesson Swedbank, , Economic Research Department, +46 (0)8-5859 3341
Administration, +46 (0)8-5859 7740, ek.sekr@swedbank.se
Sebastian Bergfelt, Silf, +46 (0)73-944 6450, professionals@silf.se
1 (4)

Silf/Swedbank’s Purchasing Managers’ Index Service Sector. seasonally adjusted
Components of PMI

2007 jan
feb
mar
apr
maj
jun
jul
aug
sep
okt
nov
dec
2008 jan
feb
mar
apr
maj
jun
jul
aug
sep
okt
nov
dec
2009 jan
feb
mar
apr
maj
juni
juli
aug
sep
okt
nov
dec
2010 jan
feb
mar
apr
maj
juni
juli
aug
sep
okt
nov
dec
2011 jan
feb
mar
apr
maj
juni
juli
aug
sep
okt
nov
dec
2012 jan
feb
mar
apr
maj
jun
jul
aug
sep

Other indicies

Forecast

Total index

Business
activity

Delivery
times

New
orders

Employment

Back -log
of orders

Prices

Planned
business

65.6

70.3

60.9

66.7

62.5

62.1

57.6

73.7

62.1

69.8

60.0

61.9

55.2

61.6

59.9

69.6

58.8

59.9

54.4

61.0

58.0

56.2

55.6

67.8

66.1

73.4

59.5

69.6

57.2

64.5

57.7

66.2

60.9

62.3

59.3

62.4

58.4

66.6

60.1

66.4

63.0

62.8

57.5

65.6

64.1

63.3

55.5

64.2

59.6

62.9

61.3

59.9

53.1

59.0

58.9

65.1

57.1

57.7

58.9

54.9

58.4

53.1

58.6

61.4

59.1

60.6

58.0

56.4

63.3

57.8

53.0

63.3

57.6

56.5

56.9

57.2

60.3

53.7

57.4

69.9

61.1

67.3

55.4

61.6

58.3

59.2

61.4

55.2

62.1

66.9

57.1

61.2

62.8

64.8

62.0

60.2

57.2

59.4

52.6

55.7

61.6

55.0

63.0

67.3

55.8

56.3

54.2

57.8

53.3

58.7

61.0

63.8

54.0

53.3

52.0

53.2

58.1

52.0

59.0

70.5

52.6

53.6

48.7

49.6

60.5

53.0

55.9

61.4

60.8

68.7

50.3

57.9

66.5

56.2

56.4

63.7

53.0

56.3

49.9

48.5

59.5

46.6

64.0

64.3

52.5

56.6

45.5

48.2

62.1

43.8

66.7

59.8

50.6

52.7

49.4

45.4

58.2

49.2

57.5

61.2

53.1

57.8

48.4

48.3

60.2

39.4

58.3

57.6

42.9

44.7

45.9

36.0

49.6

44.8

58.1

49.0

44.2

44.1

50.1

37.5

50.2

36.3

53.5

43.3

38.1

37.7

39.9

36.7

39.4

37.1

45.1

40.3

34.7

32.7

42.3

34.5

30.0

27.1

48.4

33.7

37.6

36.4

38.7

35.2

42.2

34.7

47.2

40.4

40.1

43.3

41.1

41.7

32.3

38.6

47.9

35.8

40.1

41.4

38.5

40.0

40.0

38.9

42.4

46.0

40.8

44.4

42.3

44.1

29.1

38.7

40.8

43.9

42.3

43.8

40.3

47.0

34.2

45.0

35.5

51.9

41.9

44.1

38.3

46.1

35.7

41.6

40.6

55.1

45.8

51.0

40.8

50.4

36.1

47.5

45.8

56.2

49.6

54.2

46.5

56.6

34.9

54.9

49.5

60.0

55.5

62.6

47.4

63.3

41.2

63.2

45.1

62.1

51.7

56.9

48.3

57.3

38.7

57.5

44.6

68.2

47.5

52.5

46.8

49.6

38.3

48.6

52.3

61.3

54.6

58.9

50.7

58.2

46.9

55.0

48.4

61.6

60.3

63.1

53.9

66.8

51.9

60.8

46.2

74.8

60.9

64.4

58.0

63.1

55.5

59.8

55.6

70.9

62.3

66.6

60.4

64.5

55.2

61.0

60.1

73.6

59.5

60.5

59.3

61.0

55.8

59.3

62.6

68.9

60.2

61.7

62.3

61.8

53.4

62.1

62.2

69.5

62.3

65.6

61.2

64.8

55.0

62.0

63.5

71.5

64.0

66.0

61.9

67.6

57.4

63.9

62.3

70.9

62.0

61.0

65.2

65.0

54.7

60.8

63.8

74.7

64.2

65.7

61.9

68.1

57.8

61.9

60.4

77.3

64.5

65.3

59.2

68.1

62.4

64.4

65.7

78.5

65.8

69.7

64.6

65.6

62.7

60.8

63.5

76.9

65.0

70.1

61.2

65.0

62.4

63.5

66.9

77.7

61.4

61.7

62.5

60.5

61.5

58.4

68.8

69.1

60.3

63.8

60.1

58.3

59.8

55.2

64.3

68.7

61.0

63.2

59.7

61.4

58.9

58.1

65.0

67.1

56.8

56.3

58.0

55.9

57.9

50.9

60.1

67.0

53.8

58.8

54.8

48.5

55.8

48.8

57.7

62.6

53.4

54.1

55.7

51.2

54.3

52.2

54.5

62.3

53.5

53.3

55.4

53.1

52.5

49.2

55.1

59.7

51.7

53.2

52.1

48.7

54.7

47.9

54.3

57.8

48.9

48.6

50.9

45.3

53.5

45.6

52.7

53.5

48.8

49.8

49.2

46.7

50.8

45.6

53.5

54.3

51.0

50.6

50.5

50.6

52.7

47.6

54.2

57.6

54.3

54.2

50.7

56.4

54.3

55.5

54.9

58.8

54.0

57.2

50.0

54.0

53.8

48.1

53.7

60.6

52.5

54.2

52.5

52.3

50.9

51.4

53.6

61.0

48.5

47.7

51.4

47.2

49.1

48.0

51.9

56.6

47.7

48.7

49.7

45.5

48.2

44.5

50.9

56.3

47.3

49.2

48.2

46.8

44.8

45.2

50.7

53.9

54.7

57.6

49.2

57.3

52.0

55.9

49.5

56.0

50.7

54.8

49.9

52.1

44.0

50.8

51.2

56.2

47.3

46.7

47.4

46.6

49.1

49.3

50.7

53.8

2 (4)

Silf/Swedbank’s Purchasing Managers’ Index Service Sector, orginal
Components of PMI

2007 jan
feb
mar
apr
maj
jun
jul
aug
sep
okt
nov
dec
2008 jan
feb
mar
apr
maj
jun
jul
aug
sep
okt
nov
dec
2009 jan
feb
mar
apr
maj
juni
juli
aug
sep
okt
nov
dec
2010 jan
feb
mar
apr
maj
juni
juli
aug
sep
okt
nov
dec
2011 jan
feb
mar
apr
maj
juni
juli
aug
sep
okt
nov
dec
2012 jan
feb
mar
apr
maj
jun
jul
aug
sep

Other indicies

Forecast

Total index

Business
activity

Delivery
times

New
orders

Employment

Back -log
of orders

Prices

Planned
business
activity

60.9
61.7
60.6
68.7
63.8
68.0
56.1
58.8
60.4
56.7
59.1
58.4
52.5
55.3
55.8
55.2
63.6
58.0
49.1
52.3
54.3
42.0
42.2
34.4
30.0
37.1
41.9
42.7
43.6
47.3
38.5
47.5
50.9
54.7
49.7
43.7
49.9
59.8
62.7
65.0
62.3
65.2
58.9
65.8
63.2
63.4
62.5
62.1
60.3
60.9
62.2
63.6
59.6
58.8
50.0
55.2
53.0
48.0
46.8
47.2
49.6
53.5
54.4
51.2
50.5
52.3
51.2
52.3
48.6

63.3
68.9
63.4
76.2
66.3
69.0
56.3
60.0
63.1
55.6
65.8
62.5
52.4
55.4
56.8
56.4
72.7
62.5
50.0
55.0
60.3
43.8
42.6
33.3
25.7
35.5
46.8
44.2
48.4
50.0
37.5
53.3
56.7
61.7
55.4
48.1
51.9
62.2
67.9
69.4
64.5
67.9
59.0
68.3
63.5
64.8
63.8
65.3
63.1
60.8
67.3
66.0
60.3
65.0
47.5
55.6
55.7
47.7
48.3
46.2
47.2
56.3
57.7
50.5
52.7
55.4
51.0
57.1
49.2

58.3
60.0
52.4
59.5
60.5
60.7
64.1
57.8
58.1
57.8
55.3
54.7
50.0
54.2
50.0
48.7
51.5
53.1
48.3
48.3
48.5
46.8
50.0
37.5
39.7
38.7
39.1
38.5
43.5
43.5
41.1
39.7
46.6
48.3
48.2
44.4
48.1
53.9
56.0
60.4
60.5
65.5
64.0
60.8
65.3
62.8
59.1
62.2
58.6
62.5
58.1
59.7
59.2
58.0
58.5
54.3
52.2
51.8
49.1
48.1
48.1
50.0
50.5
51.4
50.9
51.4
52.0
48.8
47.5

62.2
62.2
64.6
73.8
65.1
70.2
53.1
57.8
58.1
55.6
57.9
57.8
51.2
58.1
56.8
53.8
60.6
53.1
41.4
48.3
50.0
34.4
33.8
33.3
30.0
35.5
45.3
44.2
46.8
51.6
39.3
53.3
58.3
61.7
53.6
46.2
53.7
67.1
66.7
68.7
63.7
66.4
58.0
70.5
66.7
66.5
64.4
62.2
60.5
60.8
61.9
65.6
58.6
53.1
44.4
56.0
50.4
43.7
43.0
47.2
51.9
54.3
55.9
51.4
48.2
51.4
50.5
55.0
48.3

58.2
53.3
58.5
59.5
61.6
70.2
53.1
60.2
63.4
59.1
56.6
57.8
57.3
51.4
58.6
62.8
69.7
65.6
62.1
60.0
60.3
48.4
48.5
34.4
25.7
40.3
32.8
42.3
32.3
40.3
35.7
37.9
35.0
40.0
37.0
33.3
42.6
50.0
56.0
57.5
59.0
59.5
55.0
59.2
54.8
56.6
60.7
57.7
58.1
59.6
60.3
61.2
61.1
61.9
54.3
54.3
54.8
52.3
49.1
47.7
50.0
51.9
51.4
51.4
51.4
50.9
52.0
45.8
49.2

57.1
64.0
59.8
67.9
69.8
66.7
53.1
55.6
58.1
52.2
55.3
62.5
50.0
61.1
55.6
56.4
59.4
50.0
37.9
51.7
39.7
43.3
32.4
34.8
22.1
37.1
42.2
42.3
41.9
48.4
35.7
50.0
55.2
61.7
53.6
46.3
50.0
63.2
63.4
64.4
62.5
65.5
56.1
66.4
61.1
60.4
60.5
58.5
58.5
60.8
58.8
61.5
54.1
52.2
46.3
51.7
48.2
44.1
41.7
45.3
50.5
50.5
55.0
51.4
47.7
48.6
50.0
53.3
49.6

59.2
61.1
56.1
59.5
62.8
57.1
59.4
57.8
53.5
55.6
57.9
57.8
64.6
62.2
59.5
57.7
59.1
65.6
67.2
56.7
58.8
56.3
50.0
40.9
50.0
48.4
48.4
44.2
43.5
37.1
41.1
45.0
50.0
43.3
41.1
48.1
50.0
47.4
56.1
61.9
65.3
63.8
64.0
61.5
64.3
58.6
62.2
59.3
68.5
70.0
64.8
66.8
62.8
59.3
55.0
54.3
54.8
50.9
50.0
50.0
56.5
54.9
54.1
53.7
53.6
52.3
50.0
50.4
51.2

71.4
71.1
69.5
70.2
70.9
67.1
65.6
60.2
61.6
67.8
51.3
56.3
65.0
65.3
72.2
65.4
68.2
67.2
60.3
60.0
55.9
46.9
39.4
36.4
31.4
41.9
37.5
50.0
48.4
54.8
55.6
55.0
58.3
60.0
64.3
57.4
59.3
76.3
72.6
77.6
73.4
72.4
72.0
69.7
73.0
75.2
74.6
73.0
75.4
70.6
70.4
71.1
71.5
65.5
62.8
58.5
56.1
51.4
50.4
53.7
56.5
62.1
62.7
60.6
60.8
56.8
56.5
55.0
52.1

3 (4)

Silf/Swedbank’s

Purchasing Managers’ Index – Services
- objectives and methodology
History

Silf and Swedbank AB publ. made the first joint – internal – calculation of
the “Purchasing Managers’ Index” for the service sector of the four
indexes (PMI) during 2005. The model for PMI – Services is the U.S.
based Non-Manufacturing Index and the Swedish PMI, which has been
published since November 1994

Participants

About 200 purchasing managers in the service sector.

Publication

Third weekday of each month, 8:30 am.

Analysis Period

Comparison with previous month.

Composition
of PMI – Services (%)

New orders (within the company)
Business activity (within the company)
Employment (within the company)
Suppliers’ Delivery Times

35
25
20
20

Other leading indicators
(not included in PMI – Services) Backlog of Orders
Suppliers’ intermediate goods prices
Planned business activity next six months
Objective

Quick economic indicator
Simple statistics
Statistics with relatively short publication intervals
Constant contact with a well-informed professional group

Calculation

According to “diffusion index”. Positive changes are noted in percent for
the four sub indexes. The percentage of unchanged replies, multiplied by
0.5, is added to this figure. Then the different sub indexes are weighted as
described above to reach the total index. The Purchasing Managers’
Index – Services does not indicate activity levels but rather monthly
changes in activity in the service sector.

“Break-even”

The dividing line between growth and decline – in line with US praxis –
has been drawn at a total index of 50. However, this boundary or “neutral
growth zone” should not be applied excessively. Rather, “Break-even” at
50 indicates a target value.

We believe we have used reliable sources and procedures to generate and analyze the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI –
Services). However, Swedbank AB (publ) and SILF (earlier Organisationen för Inköp och Logistik, /I&L/ – The Organization
for Purchasing and Logistics) cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the analyses and cannot be responsible for
any errors or omissions in the basic data or processing thereof. The reader should base any decisions on other background
material as well.
Swedbank AB (publ), SILF. their employees, and other coworkers accept no liability whatsoever for any direct or
consequential loss or injury of any kind arising from any errors or omissions in the analyses presented in the Purchasing
Managers’ Index – Services.

4 (4)

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