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October 10, 2012 r

Steve Pestka Makes Gains in MI-03 n
Within Margin of Error Ag f gainst Justin Amash h To: Interested Parties

aumann an Angela Kuefler, GQ nd K QRR From: Andrew Ba
Michigan 3rd Distric is still challenging, but it is a real, a improvin pickup o n’s ct and ng, opportunity fo or Democra Steve Pes at stka. The Gra Rapidsand -based distri ct continues to lean Rep s publican and in d some me easures has shifted more to the right since Augu but Pest ust, tka’s strong profile and m message is re esonating as voters are starting to move away from Justin Amash. s m In the 6 weeks since our last poll, Pestka has moved to w w within 4 poin of Amash He has innts h. creased his net favor rability amon voters by double digit and has made impor ng y ts, rtant gains among key voting blo ocs, notably independen If Pestka can continue to communicate and get nts. a his mess sage out to voters, he ca continue to make gain and tighte this race further. v an t ns en The following are key findings fro a poll of 400 likely vo y om oters conduc cted Octobe 8-9. Margin of er error is +/- 4.9 percentage points + s.

Key Fin ndings

Pestk cuts Amash’s lead in half; now only down by 4 point At the en of August ka w n ts. nd Pestk trailed Am ka mash by 8 po oints (42–50 As the ca mpaign has intensified, a still less w 0). wellknow Pestka ha cut Amash’s lead to only 4 points (44-48)—w wn as o within the margin of error r. Pestk ka’s profile as an indepe a endent small-business ow wner has re esonated par rticularly with inh with ed dependents, whe has gaine a net 20 points, and w modera ere ed ates, where he has gaine a net 23 points.

Pestk improves his standing. As the race has en gaged with Pestka’s firs round of adverka st tising Pestka’s net favorability has increa g, n ased 10 poin since the end of Aug nts e gust, as he h has flippe his person standing from a sligh net negatiive to a net p ed nal ht positive. Pes stka now has an s impre essive +15 net favorabili with indep n ity pendents (28 favorable/ unfavora 8 /13 able), signific cantly better than Amas sh’s +5 rating and has also gained w women and seniors g, a with s. Pestk likely has more room to grow. The survey indicates th Peskta h not yet h his ka y hat has hit ceilin He is still less well kn ng. nown than Amash, with a 58 percen name ID c A nt compared to the incum mbent’s 74 percent mark p k.

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