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The use of GIS for hazard assessment

RISK = HAZARD * VULNERABILITY * AMOUNT Hazard = PROBABILITY of event with a certain magnitude Degree of damage. Function of: magnitude of event, and type of elements at risk

Vulnerability =

Cees van Westen International Institute for Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC), Enschede, The Netherlands. E-mail: westen@itc.nl
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Hazard, vulnerability and risk?

RISK = HAZARD * VULNERABILITY * AMOUNT


Hazard= PROBABILITY of event with a certain magnitude Vulnerability = Degree of damage. Function of: magnitude of event, and type of elements at risk Amount = Quantification of the elements at risk e.g. Replacement costs of buildings, infrastructure etc. Loss of function or economic activities Number of people

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Hazard, vulnerability and risk?


Example:
US $ 50.000

10 years RP

V=1

Hazard Risk

= probability within a given period = 0.1 / year = hazard * vulnerability * amount = 0.1 * 1 *50.000 = 5.000 US $

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Hazard, vulnerability and risk?


Example: US $ 200.000
V = 0.5 V = 0.1 10 years RP V=1 US $ 50.000 US $ 100.000

Risk

= hazard * vulnerability * amount = 0.1 * ( (0.5*200.000)+ (0.1*100.000)+ (1 * 50.000)) = 0.1 * 160.000 = 16.000 $

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Hazard, vulnerability and risk?


Example:
50 years RP 10 years RP 2 years RP US $ 50.000

V=1 V = 0.1 V = 0.01

Hazard =

0.5 * 0.01 * 50.000 + 0.1 * 0.1 * 50.000 + 0.02 * 1 * 50.000 = = 250 + 500 + 1000 = 1750 US $

1 Risk curve 0.5 0.1 0.02 0 0 1000 10000

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In reality
Example:
Price is ???

Depth = ???? RP = ?? V = ????

= hazard * vulnerability * amount = ? * ? * ? = unknown What is needed: hazard assessment , elements at risk mapping, vulnerability assessment, cost estimation.
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Risk

Risk is a spatial problem


Hazard: How much water when and where? Elements at risk: Which elements where, and how many/much ? Vulnerability: How much water where which elements at risk are?

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Risk is a multidisciplinary spatial problem


Hazard assessment: done by earth scientists, hydrologists, volcanologists, seismologists etc. Elements at risk: done by geographers, urban planners, civil engineers Cost estimation: done by economists Vulnerability: done by structural engineers, civil engineers Risk assessment: Done by GIS experts Hazard map
Aerial photographs

Elements at risk
Satellite images

Risk assessment needs GIS Cost information


GPS Statistical tables

Vulnerability map Risk map

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Procedure
The use of GIS will: Decrease the time for data collection (mobile GIS) Increase the time for data management (digitizing) Decrease the time for data analysis very much (to 5% of total time).

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What are you going to do?


First define the objective of the study. Danger exists that the data that will be collected will not be in accordance with the scale of analysis, or the method of analysis. This might lead to a waste of time and money if too detailed data is collected, or an oversimplification if too general data is collected. The following things should be considered: The objective of the study The scale of the study The type of analysis that will be followed The types of input data that will be collected.

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Defining objective
Hazard studies can be made for any different purposes. Some of these might be: For an environmental impact study for engineering works; For the disaster management of a town or city; For the modelling of sediment yield in a catchment ; For a watershed management project; For a community participation project in disaster management; For a the generation of awareness among decision makers; For scientific purposes. Each of these objectives will lead to specific requirements with respect to the scale of work, the method of analysis and the type and detail of input data to be collected.
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Scales of analysis (1)

National scale Smaller than 1:1.000.000, covering an entire country, mainly intended to generate awareness among decision makers and the general public. Maps on this scale are often intended to be included in national atlases.

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Scales of analysis (2)

Regional scale Between 1:100.000 and 1:1.000.000, covering a large catchment area, or a political entity of the country. The maps at this scale are mostly intended for reconnaissance phases for planning projects for the construction of infrastructural works, or large development projects.

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Scales of analysis (3)

Medium scale Between 1:25.000 and 1:100.000, covering a municipality or smaller catchment area. Intended for the detailed planning phases of projects for the construction of infrastructural works, environmental impact assessment and municipal planning.

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Scales of analysis (4)

Large scale Between 1:2.000 and 1:25.000, covering a town or (part of) a city. They are used for generation of detailed risk maps.

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Scales of analysis (5)

Site investigation scale Between 1:200 to 1:2.000, covering the area where engineering works will be carried out, or covering a single problem area. They are used for the detailed design of engineering works, such as roads, bridges, tunnels, dams, and for the construction of mitigation works.

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Input data for hazard analysis


The type of input data for a GIS-based hazard study depends on: The type of hazard studied (e.g. earthquake hazard assessment requires very different input data than flood hazard assessment) The analysis method that will be used (more complex methods are more data demanding). The scale of the study (the larger the area the more data collection is needed) The availability of resources (money and manpower) The amount of available data.

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Basic data for hazard analysis (1)


Altitude information: Existing digital elevation models Topographic maps at right scale digitizing Photogrammetrical methods with airphotos Photogrammetrical methods with satellite images Lidar (Light detection and ranging) best Radar interferometry.

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Basic data for hazard analysis (2)


Historical information of hazardous events: Existing catalogs/ records (seismic catalog, discharge measurements, rainfall records)
What is the timespan?? / completeness

Historical study of archieves (newspapers, log books etc.) Using multi-temporal imagery (satellite images or airphotos)
How often can you get them? Scale? During the event?

Field mapping (e.g. landslides, flood marks)


Should not be too long ago.

Interviewing population / participatory approach

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Basic data for hazard analysis (3)


Collecting data on factors that determine hazards: Geological maps (e.g. landslides, earthquakes) Geotechnical maps (e.g. landslides, earthquakes) Landuse maps (e.g. landslides, floods, forest fires)
May have to be multi-temporal

Slope maps, aspect maps, slope length (e.g. landslides) Field data collection (e.g. boreholes, geophysical studies, river cross sections, landslide characteristics) Laboratory analysis (e.g. soil strength, rock composition)

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Types of hazard assessment


The past is the key to the future:
Historical analysis:
Mapping historic events and determining return period and magnitude (e.g. flooding)

Heuristic analysis:
Expert determines susceptibility to particular type of hazard using decision rules, or weighting methods

Statistical analysis:
Analyze the conditions under which hazardous events occurred in the past using statistical relations.

Deterministic analysis:
Simulation of the hazardous events using computer models based on physical understanding of the processes involved.

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Examples: landslides
Fall Topple Slide

Spread

Flow

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Historical landslide hazard assessment

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Heuristic landslide hazard analysis (1)

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Heuristic landslide hazard analysis (2)

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Statistical landslide hazard analysis (1)

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Statistical landslide hazard analysis (2)

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Deterministic landslide hazard assessment (1)

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Deterministic landslide hazard assessment (2)

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Case study Tegucigalpa

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Lidar and Landslides

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Stereo image interpretation

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View 3-D using analgyph image

Mapping landslides
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Volume calculation of landslide using DEMs

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Examples: Flooding

New Choluteca Bridge

Inundated area

New Choluteca Bridge

Location of Destroyed Neighborhoods

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Assessment of inundation hazard: land and water boundaries.


Example from Bangladesh using SPOT.
Processing: in SPOT band 3/Band 1 density slicing.

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Example 2: Flood modeling in Bangladesh

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Flood mapping through interviews

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Hydrological modelling

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Example: simulation of dike breach in dutch polder.


non flooded

flooded Flood extent map; water height 260 cm.

DEM :height in cm AMSL

Resultling flood depth map.

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Modelling hazard areas for cyclone storm surge

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Modelling lahars
Arequipa Peru

Previous works

DTM 25 m

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Historical analysis: Pinatubo

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Multi-temporal DEMs for erosion modelling (1)

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Multi-temporal DEMs for erosion modelling (2)

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Seismic hazard assessment


Seismic macrozonation
Define seismic source zones Characterize source zones Calculate Peak Ground Acceleration for different return periods

Seismic microzonation
Determine site response Soil amplification / topographic amplification Secondary seismic hazards Relation with buildings

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Overview of seismic zonation methods


Direct characterization of ground motion

Damage mapping Instrumental observation Regional ground shaking hazard Deterministic calculation of ground motion Empirical methods
(Soil category mapping, Intensity anomaly mapping Shear wave velocity mapping, Earthquake spectral ration techniques, Microtremor techniques (e.g. Nakamura)

Prediction of ground motion


Characterization of site

Numerical simulation methods


- E.g. SHAKE

Topography effects

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Data needed for seismic microzonation


Representative strong motion data from dense network of stations Detailed geological information Borehole data, reaching up to bedrock level Standard penetration test data (SPT) Digital Terrain Model Shear wave velocity data

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Seismic Intensity Map

I. Mid Nepal Earthquake

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Seismic Intensity Map

II.North Bagmati Earthquake

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Seismic Intensity Map

III. KV Local Earthquake

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GIS & RS case study available on Blackboard site of CASITA from Asia
Flood hazard assessment: Bangladesh Coastal hazard assessment: Bangladesh Landslide hazard assessment: Kakani, Nepal Volcanic hazard assessment: Pinatubo, Phillipines Seismic hazard assessment: Kathmandu, Nepal Liquefaction hazard assessment: Bhuj, India
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THANK YOU

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