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# http://www.giaxaydung.vn/diendan/f382/huong-danchi-tiet-bai-toan-su-dung-crystal-ball-40792.

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## Hng dn chi tit bi ton s dng Crystal Ball

Theo kin ca cc bn v mc ch ca din n. Hm nay mnh xin vit bi hng dn chi tit v Crystal ball thng qua 1 v d c th. Rt mong cc bn nhn xt gp nhng bi vit sau c hon thin hn. Xin chn thnh cm n. Bi Ton: Mt ngi kinh doanh mt mt hng A vi gi mua : 8, gi bn : 10. Hy s dng phn mm Crystal Ball (CB) phn tch 2 yu t ( gi mua, gia bn) tc ng n doanh thu nh th no? Gii gi mua : 8, gi bn : 10 => tin li = 10 8 = 2. Cn lu tnh gi tr tin li ( C4) phi l mt cng thc tnh t hai , C2 v C3. Cng thc C4 nh sau: = C3 C2 BNG 9.1: Bi ton tnh Bi ton ng: Hy tnh tin li khi hoc gi mua thay i v gi bn thay i. Bit rng gi mua c dng phn phi chun, vi tr trung bnh l 8, lch chun l 1. Gi bn c dng phn phi chun, vi tr trung bnh l 10, lch chun l 1. Anh/ Ch hy chy m phng Crystal Ball v hy cho bit kh nng l l bao nhiu phn trm (%)?. Chun b trc khi chy m phng: Trc tin c th chy c m phng Crystal Ball, chng ta cn phi lm hai vic: 1. Thit lp bi ton tnh, nh m t bn trn. 2. a c phn mm Crystal Ball hin th trn Mn hnh Excel. Trong trng hp trn Mn hnh Excel cha c hin th Crystal Ball, Anh/ Ch xem hng dn cch a Crystal Ball ln Mn hnh Excel phn sau mc 9.6. Thanh Menu ca Mn hnh Excel sau khi a c Crystal Ball ln s c thm ba chc nng mi l Cell , Run v CBTools. ng thi Crystal Ball cng thm vo thanh cng c mi vo Excel:

Thao tc: Qu trnh chy m phng Crystal Ball c th c chia lm 4 giai on: 1. Khai bo bin gi thit, bin kt qu (cn gi l bin d bo) 2. Chy m phng 3. Xem kt qu chy c

4. Lp bo co v phn tch 9.1. Khai bo bin gi thit, bin kt qu a. Khai bo bin gi thit Gi mua: B1. Nhp chut chn C2 B2. Nhp chut vo ch Cell trn thanh thc n (thanh Menu). Khi mt ca s m ra. B3. Nhp chut vo Define Assumption..Khi mt bng cc dng phn phi s hin ln nh hnh 9.1 Hnh 9.1: Cc dng phn phi ca bin gi thit (bin u vo). B4. Nhp chut chn dng Normal (phn phi chun). B5. Nhp chut vo nt OK, khi mt mn hnh hin ra nh hnh 9.2 cho php chng ta a vo cc thng s ca phn phi. B6. a vo gi tr trung bnh = 8 khung ca s Mean B7. a vo gi tr lch chun = 1 khung ca s Std Dev B8. Nhp chut vo nt OK hon tt vic khai bo bin gi thit Gi mua. Hnh 9.2 : Cc thng s ca Phn phi chun (Normal) a. Khai bo bin gi thit Gi bn: Tng t nh phn khai bo bin gi thit Gi mua B1. Nhp chut chn C3 B2. Nhp chut vo ch Cell trn thanh thc n (thanh Menu). Khi mt ca s m ra. B3. Nhp chut vo Define Assumption..Khi mt bng cc dng phn phi s hin ln nh hnh 9.1 B4. Nhp chut chn dng Normal (phn phi chun). B5. Nhp chut vo nt OK, khi mt mn hnh hin ra nh hnh 9.2 cho php chng ta a vo cc thng s ca phn phi. B6. a vo gi tr trung bnh = 10 khung ca s Mean B7. a vo gi tr lch chun = 1 khung ca s Std Dev B8. Nhp chut vo nt OK hon tt vic khai bo bin gi thit Gi bn. b. Khai bo bin kt qu (cn gi l bin d bo): B1. Nhp chut chn C4 B2. Nhp chut vo ch Cell trn thanh thc n (thanh Menu). Khi mt ca s m ra. B3. Nhp chut vo DefineForcast..Khi mt ca s hin ra cho php chng ta nhp vo tn v n v ca bin kt qu hay cn gi l bin d bo (khng nhp vo cng khng sao). B4. Nhp chut vo nt OK, sau khi nhp vo tn v n v ca bit kt qu, hon tt vic khai bo bin kt qu (bin d bo). 9.1. Chy m phng a. Xc nh s ln chy

B1. Nhp chut vo ch Run trn thanh thc n (thanh Menu). Khi mt ca s m ra. B2. Nhp chut vo Run Preference.Mt ca s hin ra nh hnh 9.3 Hnh 9.3: Xc nh s ln chy B3. G vo s ln mun chy ca s Maximum number of trials. V d: G vo s 2000 Crystal Ball thc hin 2000 ln m phng. B4. Nhp chut vo nt OK. a. Thc hin lnh chy B1. Nhp chut vo ch Run trn thanh thc n (thanh Menu). Khi mt ca s m ra. B2. Tip tc nhp chut vo Run, khi ca s chy m phng s hin ra cng vi cc kt qu ca cc ln chy. Sau khi thc hin s ln m phng, ca s chy m phng s dng li. B3. Nhp chut vo nt OK kt thc qu trnh chy m phng, kt qu chy c s hin ra nh hnh 9.4 Hnh 9.4: Kt qu chy m phng (Dng Biu Tn s) 9.1. Xem kt qu chy c C nm dng xem kt qu chy m phng l: ? Dng Thng k (Statistics) ? Dng Phn trm (Percentiles) ? Dng Biu Tn s (Frequency Chart) ? Dng Biu Tch ly (Cumulative Chart) ? Dng Biu Tch ly Nghch o (Reverse Cumulative Chart) Trong nm dng trn, tht ra ch c bn dng u tin thng dng, cn dng Biu Tch ly Nghch o t thng dng. Dng Biu Tn s l dng mc nhin, kt qu m phng cho ra sau khi chy, nh hnh 9.4. xem cc dng khc, chng ta c th thc hin nh sau: a. Xem kt qu dng Thng k B1. T ca s Kt qu m phng (ca s Forcast) nh hnh 9.4, nhp chut vo ch View trn thanh thc n. Khi mt ca s m ra. Trong trng hp Anh/Ch l tt ca s Kt qu m phng (ca s Forcast), c th m li bng cch nhp chut vo Run, sau nhp chut vo Forcast windows, cui cng l nhp chut vo Open All Forcarsts. B2. Nhp chut vo Statistics, khi mt ca s Kt qu m phng di dng Thng k s m ra nh hnh 9.5. Hnh 9.5: Kt qu m phng dng Thng k a. Xem kt qu dng Phn trm B1. T ca s Kt qu m phng (ca s Forcast) nh hnh 9.5, nhp chut vo ch View trn thanh thc n. Khi mt ca s m ra. Trong trng hp Anh/Ch l tt ca s Kt qu m phng (ca s Forcast), c th m li bng cch nhp chut vo

Run, sau nhp chut vo Forcast windows, cui cng l nhp chut vo Open All Forcarsts. B2. Nhp chut vo Percentiles, khi mt ca s Kt qu m phng di dng Phn trm s m ra. b. Xem kt qu dng Biu Tn s B1. T ca s Kt qu m phng (ca s Forcast) nh hnh 9.5, nhp chut vo ch View trn thanh thc n. Khi mt ca s m ra. Trong trng hp Anh/Ch l tt ca s Kt qu m phng (ca s Forcast), c th m li bng cch nhp chut vo Run, sau nhp chut vo Forcast windows, cui cng l nhp chut vo Open All Forcarsts. B2. Nhp chut vo Frequency Chart, khi mt ca s Kt qu m phng di dng Biu Tn s s m ra nh hnh 9.4. c. Xem kt qu dng Biu Tch ly B1. T ca s Kt qu m phng (ca s Forcast) nh hnh 9.5, nhp chut vo ch View trn thanh thc n. Khi mt ca s m ra. Trong trng hp Anh/Ch l tt ca s Kt qu m phng (ca s Forcast), c th m li bng cch nhp chut vo Run, sau nhp chut vo Forcast windows, cui cng l nhp chut vo Open All Forcarsts. B2. Nhp chut vo Cumulative Chart, khi mt ca s Kt qu m phng di dng Biu Tch ly s m ra nh hnh 9.6

Hnh 9.6: Kt qu m phng dng Biu Tch ly a. Xem Phn trm l B1. T ca s Kt qu m phng (ca s Forcast) nh hnh 9.5, nhp chut vo ch View trn thanh thc n, khi mt ca s m ra. B2. Nhp chut vo Frequency Chart, xem Kt qu m phng di dng Biu Tn s nh hnh 9.4. B3. Nhp chut vo khung ca s trng (c hin ch +Infinity) bn tay phi di Biu . B4. Xa ch +Infinity, v nh vo s zero (s 0). B5. G phm Enter, v quan st thy Biu s hin th xc sut m, ng thi bn di, chnh gia biu s c khung Certainty cho kt qu xc sut m, nh hnh 9.7.

Hnh 9.7: Biu hin th xc sut m Trn hnh 9.7, chng ta c th thay i gi tr hai khung trng hai bn pha di biu , ri g phm Enter, Crystal Ball tnh ton xc sut v v biu cc khong m chng ta mong mun. 9.4. Lp bo co v phn tch a. Lp bo co n gin Mt cch n gin lp bo co l trong qu trnh chng ta thc hin xem cc dng th phn trn, nhng biu no chng ta cn in ra bo co, chng ta c th thc hin thao tc copy ri sau dn biu va copy c vo nn Excel, ni s

c vit bo co. Nh vy trong v d trn, chng ta c th copy biu tn s cho xc sut l (lnh copy: Ctrl + C) trong hnh 9.7 dn vo v tr bt k trn nn Excel (bng lnh Ctrl + V). b. Lp bo co theo khun mu Trong trng hp chng ta mun in ra tt cc, hay nhiu dng kt qu d bo cng lc, v mun bo co k c dng phn phi ca cc bin gi thit. Khi chng ta s thc hin bo co theo khun mu. Thao tc: B1. Nhp chut vo ch Run trn thanh thc n, khi mt ca s m ra. B2. Nhp chut vo Create Report, khi mt ca s nh hnh 9.8 s m ra. B3. Trn hnh 9.8, nhp chut vung Forcasts, sau chn cc dng kt qu d bo mun in ra bo co. B4. Trn hnh 9.8, nhp chut vung Assumptions, sau chn cc thng s v th cc bin gi thit mun in ra bo co. Hnh 9.8: To Bo co 9.1. Chy li bi ton vi cc bin gi thit v bin kt qu mi Trong trng hp, Anh/Ch mun chy li bi ton vi cc bin gi thit hay cc bin kt qu thay i, chng ta phi xa b cc kt qu m phng chy trc , xa b cc bin kt qu (bin d bo), v cc bin gi thit m chng ta khai bo trc . Sau mi thc hin khai bo li cc bin gi thit v bin kt qu nh giai on 1 ca chy m phng. Thao tc: B1. Nhp chut vo ch Run trn thanh thc n, khi mt ca s m ra. B2. Nhp chut vo Reset loi b tt c cc kt qu d bo trc chy trc . B3. Nhp chut vo ch Cell trn thanh thc n, khi mt ca s m ra. B4. Nhp chut vo Select All Forcasts, chn tt c cc bin kt qu. B5. Nhp chut vo Clear Assumptions/Forcasts xa cc bin kt qu B6. Nhp chut vo ch Cell trn thanh thc n, khi mt ca s m ra. B7. Nhp chut vo Select All Assumptions, chn tt c cc bin gi thit. B8. Nhp chut vo Clear Assumptions/Forcasts xa cc bin gi thit. n y, chng ta hon chnh vic xa cc kt qu d bo, cc bin gi thit v bin kt qu, v c th bt u cho mt bi ton m phng mi, theo cc giai on 1,2,3,4. -----------9.1. a Crystal Ball hin th trn Mn hnh Excel. Trong trng hp my ca cc Anh/Ch cha ci phn mm Crystal Ball th phi ci vo phn mm Crystal Ball vo my trc khi Anh/Ch mun a phn mm ny vo mn hnh Excel. Trong trng hp Anh/Ch ci Crystal Ball, nhng trn mn hnh Excel vn khng

hin ln hai ch View v Run trn thanh thc n, khi chng ta thc hin nh sau. Thao tc: Cch 1 Cch d nht cho Crystal Ball hin th trong Excel l m trc tip t Start ri vo Programs, sau vo Crystal Ball ri chn Crystal Ball. Crystal Ball s t ng m Excel v thm cc nt cng c ca n vo. Cch 2 B1. Nhp chut vo ch Tools trn thanh thc n ca Excel, khi mt ca s m ra. B2. Nhp chut vo Add-Ins.. khi mt ca s s hin ra nh hnh 9.9. Hnh 9.9: Ca s Add-Ins... B3. Nhp chut chn khung Crystal Ball trn bng Add-Ins...nh Hnh 9.9. Trng hp khng thy khung Crystal Ball trong danh sch Add-Ins th nhn vo nt Browse, sau tm n v tr cha phn mm Crystal Ball trong my (thng thng trong C:\>Program Files \ Crystal Ball) ri chn file CB.xla. Nhn OK.

Hnh 9.10: Ca s Browse B4. Nhp chut vo nt OK, khi trn thanh thc n ca mn hnh Excel s xut hin hai chc nng ca Crystal Ball l View v Run, v xin mi Anh/Ch nhp cuc.