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102002/42012/4
1
003
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102012/32012/4
2
004
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102002/42012/4
3
005
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102002/92012/4
4
006
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NZD/USD
5

007
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USD/JPY

008
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009
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6001400
8001600
9001700
10001800
1600 000
1700 100
2200 600

06:00 08:00 10:00 12:00 14:00 16:00 18:00 20:00 22:00 00:00 02:00 04:00 06:00

GBP/JPY2011/12012/4

GBP/JPY 10
010
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011
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GBP/USD2011/12012/4


200%

GBP/USD

78

(2) USD/JPY

10 ASKBID

80

80

82

(1) USD/JPY

012
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11 EUR/USD

2008

013
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12 GBP/USD

2008

014
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13 EUR/USD

2011

015
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14 USD/CHF

2011

016
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Press Release

Release Date: December 13, 2011


For immediate release
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in November suggests that the
economy has been expanding moderately, notwithstanding some apparent slowing in global growth.
While indicators point to some improvement in overall labor market conditions, the unemployment
rate remains elevated. Household spending has continued to advance, but business fixed
investment appears to be increasing less rapidly and the housing sector remains depressed.
Inflation has moderated since earlier in the year, and longer-term inflation expectations have
remained stable.
Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and
price stability. The Committee continues to expect a moderate pace of economic growth over
coming quarters and consequently anticipates that the unemployment rate will decline only
gradually toward levels that the Committee judges to be consistent with its dual mandate. Strains in
global financial markets continue to pose significant downside risks to the economic outlook. The
Committee also anticipates that inflation will settle, over coming quarters, at levels at or below those
consistent with the Committees dual mandate. However, the Committee will continue to pay close
attention to the evolution of inflation and inflation expectations.
To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels
consistent with the dual mandate, the Committee decided today to continue its program to extend
the average maturity of its holdings of securities as announced in September. The Committee is
maintaining its existing policies of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt
and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over
maturing Treasury securities at auction. The Committee will regularly review the size and
composition of its securities holdings and is prepared to adjust those holdings as appropriate.
The Committee also decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent
and currently anticipates that economic conditions--including low rates of resource utilization and a
subdued outlook for inflation over the medium run--are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for
the federal funds rate at least through mid-2013.

15 FOMCsample
017
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16 20022012
018
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019
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17 Unemployment Rate, Jobless Rate

2008

18 Non Farm Payroll, NFP


020
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19 US CPI
021
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20 GDP
022
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21 Housing Starts
023
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22 Existing Home Sales


024
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23 New Home Sales


025
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24 ISM
026
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25 ISM
027
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028
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26 USD/JPY2011/92011/12

2011 10 31
9

27 Tankan
029
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28
030
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29 IFO

2009 3

031
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GDP

30 EU PMI v.s. EU GDP

PMI
032
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31 Black Wednesday, 1992

1992

033
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32 AUD v.s. NZD

AUDNZD
034
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33 AUD v.s. Crude Oil Future

AUD
035
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34 AUD v.s. Gold Future

AUD
036
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35 EUR/CHF

CHF
037
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36
038
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37
039
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38

040
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041
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39

26

/2

/2

/2

26

/2

52

042
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K
K

Ichimoku (USD/JPY)

40

77.00

77.50

78.00

78.50

77.50

78.00

78.50

41 1

SMA1 (USD/JPY)

043
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044
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42 2

SMA2 (GBP/JPY)

SMA

SMA

SMA
SMA

120

122.5

125

MA

43 MACD1

MACD

MA

045
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046
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44 MACDSignal

MACD (USD/JPY)

MACD

Signal

75.50

76.00

76.50

77.00

047
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45 BB

K2

BB (USD/JPY)

SMA

SMA2

79.50

80.00

80.50

81.00

30
pips

46

06 Aug 2012 07 Aug 2012


048
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i
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24

1.2.
3.4.
4

ii
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iii
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24

iv
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10

v
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24

Deloitte

(Eddie Chiu)

vi
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WTO

vii
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24

20

KPMG

10168

viii
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2011
21
10

14

IMF

10

ix
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24

3
45
235
33000

3
20%

3.5%

x
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24

2000

xi
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----------------------------002
-------------------------------005
-------------------------006
FX -------------------------------------------008
--------------------------------------------012
-------------------------017
1
----------------------020

xii
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----------------------------024
----------------------------------025
----025
USD -------------------------------------------027
JPY --------------------------------------------039
EUR--------------------------------------------047
GBP -------------------------------------------051
AUD -------------------------------------------055
CHF-----------------------------------------061
--------------------------------------------------------063

----------------------------------065

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Support LineResistance
Line -----------------------------------------------------068
Ichimoku ----------------------------070
Simple Moving Average,
SMA ----------------------------------------------------073
Exponential Moving Average,
EMA ----------------------------------------------------074
Moving Average
Convergence Divergence, MACD -------------074
BBBollinger Bands, BB ---------------------075

Range Trading Strategy ------077

xiv
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-------------------------------082
----------------------------082
FX ----------------------------------------086
-------------------087

-------------------------------------091
--------------------------------------------------------094

xv
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24

Mutual Fund
REITs
Hedge FundPrivate Equity

Foreign ExchangeForexFX
FX

BIS47
19

24
(Professional Traders)24
EURO MONEY2011
3Deutsche Bank
BarclaysUBS9

Amateur Traders
33
002
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Globalization

Galaxy

Default

201110
8.3%1108.5%
23102%
4
003
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24

U.S. Treasury Bills, T-Bills201185


Standard & Poors
AAAAA+1941AAA
70
20118

CAPMCapital Asset Pricing Model

Risk-free Interest Rate


T-Bills

004
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2011
3

Principal Reserve Currency

USD/JPY
6

Interbank Market

005
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24

8A

Dirty
Floating Rate

FX

006
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FX

EPSP/E P/B
FX
Pairs

2
10

2001

FX2003
007
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24

Foreign Exchange Broker


FX
10

FX
24
1998

FX
7
24

24

Leverage
Margin

008
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40020005

USD/
JPYFX10USD/
JPY80101
810,000USD80800,000YEN
800,000YEN/100,000YEN8

400
1:1001:2001:400
1:100100100
1095

1:501:25
1:10050
202011FX
25

50-100

009
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24

Overnight Swap PointSwap


Rollover
17:0017:00
FX2
A
A
USD/JPY
10
1
1210120
161410
140
Long

Short

010
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1-1

Pair

Swap Short (YEN)

Swap Long (YEN)

EUR/USD

20

16

USD/JPY

14

12

GBP/USD

12

USD/CHF

EUR/CHF

27

18

AUD/USD

106

86

USD/CAD

16

-21

NZD/USD

50

37

EUR/GBP

EUR/JPY

29

24

GBP/JPY

31

26

CHF/JPY

AUD/JPY

115

104

CAD/JPY

40

27

NZD/JPY

106

90

Resource: FXCM, 2011

24
24

FX
011
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24

Event

Factors

Scenario
Unemployment Rate

4
Radical Move

012
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Risk Control & Risk Management


ExposureFX

FX

GBP/JPY8GBP/USD9GBP/
CHF

102USD/JPY

1. 1USD80Yen100,000 USD1USD82Yen
[100,000(8280)]/822439 USD
2. 1USD80Yen100,000 USD1USD78Yen
[100,000(8078)]/782564 USD
100,000 USD
5%5,000 USD
100,000 USD100,000
USD/5,000 USD20
013
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24

2
10,000 USD
%

10010,000 USD

2,564 USD/5000 USD100148%


70%50%

FX

Federal Funds Rate20062007


4.5%5.25%20090.00%0.25%

014
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2005FX8
8
1

Proprietary Trader

200512
8Mizuho Securities Co.
161
161
015
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24

407

FX

FX
2

Trend
016
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USD
USD

USD/JPY
JPY/USD
USD/JPY80
1801
USD/JPY79
8079
8079EUR/USD
EUR1

USD/JPY
781
76
7876
017
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24

178
762011Q3USD/
JPY

Pips

100
21
4
201112
AUD/JPY77.31
1002

AUD/JPY77.31
0.01

GBP/USD1.5672
EUR/CHF1.2358
018
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1
4GBP/USD1.5672
0.0001

1-2

USD

TWD

JPY

CNY

EUR

HKD

GBP

KRW

AUD

SGD

NZD

IDR

CHF

INR

CAD

THB

ZAR

PHP

BRL

MYR

RUB

TRY

019
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24

21.
2.

1
ReutersBloombergDow Jones
Morning Star

020
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2
29.0

Consensus Estimate/Forecast

8.59.0
9.59.0
9.0

Surprise

Surprise

021
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24

10
FX
USD/JPY24
60-70pips10
1
100pips

Trend
5Trend

022
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24

2-1BIS2010

024
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24 . .
, 2012. 11

ISBN 978-986-121-791-8
1. 2. 3.
563.23

101018718

3GA4

24

106 339 4

(02)2705-5066

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(02)2706-6100

shuchuan@shuchuan.com.tw
01303853

(02)2249-7714

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(02)2249-8716


2012 11

250

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