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Keunho Hwang, Jangkoo Kang and Doojin Ryu*

Preliminary Version: March 2007

ABSTRACT

Large fluctuations are observed in various financial variables, such as stock price, foreign exchange rate, interest rate, and trading volume. Many empirical evidences show that the Levy or power -law distributions can describe these movements. We elaborately investigate the movement of trading volume imbalances in KOSPI 200 index futures market. T he empirical phenomenon, so called two-phase behavior, that the distribution changes from unimodal to bimodal as the variation increases is observed. We also examine the statistical properties of trading volume and number of transactions, which determine the trading volume imbalance. The trading volume and number of transactions within one minute shows power-law property but individual trading volume does not. Contrary to Maria and Yamazaki (2005), the power-law of trading volume i not the necessary condition to generate the two-phase behavior. s JEL classification: C16, D39

*

Corresponding author: KAIS Graduate School of Finance 207-43, Cheongryangri2-Dong, T Dongdaemun-Gu, Seoul, 130 -012, Korea, Tel: +82-2-958-3693, E-mail: sharpjin@business.kaist.ac.kr

Plerou et. In recent years. the empirical evidence shows that it is hard to say the individual trading volume of 1 . The trading volume imbalance within one minute explicitly shows the twophase behavior. Many articles show that large fluctuati ns which cannot be explained by Gaussian o distribution are observed and that the power-law or Levy distribution can describe these movements. al. many researchers examined various financial markets and found the power-law distributions in stock price. we examine the distribution of trading volume imbalance in KOSPI 200 index futures market. see Gabaix et. If demand and supply for the assets are balanced. Gopikrishnan et. the change of price is mild. Though the trading volume which is accumulated within a fixed time interval has a power-law property. (2003) examined the distribution of trading volume imbalance within a fixed time interval and they empirically found that a unimodal distribution changed into a bimodal distribution as the variation increased. al. Maria and Yamazaki (2005) performed the numerical simulation w here trading volume and number of trades are sampled from power-law distribution and showed that the two-phase behavior is induced when the distribution of trading volume has fat-tail. W also examine the statistical properties of trading volume and number of e transactions. if a large information shock arrives in the market. As Martia and Yamazaki pointed out. Plerou et. (2003). the power -law distributions are observed in KOSPI 200 index futures market. (For example. al. As in other financial markets. trading volume. and number of transations. They interpreted this phenomenon that the market moves between the two phases as “equilibrium” state and “out-ofequilibrium” state. (1999). the two-phase behavior observed in KOSPI 200 index futures market may be a consequence of the statistical property of trading volume and number of trades. In the early 1960s. Mandelbrot (1963) and Fama (1965) documented that the distributions of returns can be well approximated by a Levy stable distribution. On the other hand. the imbalance between demand and supply can result in considerable price movement. (2000). In this paper. which determine the trading volume imbalance. the distributions of variables in the financial market have been studied extensively.) A large price fluctuation is induced by a large shock in the market.1. Introduction For many years. al.

689 contracts in 2002. In the emerging market dominated by individual traders. And section 5 suggests a potential explanation for the two-phase behavior and concludes briefly. 223. such as the KOSPI 200 index futures market. KOSPI 200 Index Futures Market and Data Sampling Since the KOSPI 200 index futures were introduced in May 1996. The average daily trading volume in 2003 wa s 251. 2 . Section 4 plots the distributions of other market variables and discusses the statistical properties of those variables. 2. the domestic individual investor’s trading volume is two times more than the sum of domestic and foreign institutional investors’. Aside from its sheer trading intensity. the KOSPI 200 index futures market has a peculiar characteristic compared to other derivative markets of developed countries. Section 3 shows the two phase behavior of trading volume imbalance in the KOSPI 200 index futures market. 175. the KOSPI 200 index futures market has become one of the top derivative markets in the world. This shows the two-phase behavior of trading volume imbalance is not the consequence of the power-law distribution of trading volume.058 contracts in 2001. uninformed or noise traders). they have grown tremendously. (i. The rest of this paper is organized as follows. 841 contracts2. who do not trade based on true information.e. Individual inves tors are generally considered unsophisticated traders.329 contracts in 2004 and 176. While the trading activit ies of institutional investors dominate those of individual investors in most derivative markets of developed countries. Based on its trading volume. Section 2 describes the properties of KOSPI 200 index futures market and presents how to construct our sample. there may be more room for sophisticated institutional investors to exploit less sophisticated individual investors using their information and trading 2 To more specific.KOSPI 200 index futures has a power -law distribution.099 contracts in 2005. 128.

Ω (t ) = QB − QS = ∑ qi ai i =1 N (t ) (1) 3 TAQ data is not available from December 19. w e organize a limit order book. 3 . But only the nearest month’s future is actively trade d while other months’ futures are barely traded at any given time4. 760 trading days) 4 Even on the day of maturity of the nearest month’s future. quoted spreads and effective spreads just before every transaction.05 points.skill.000 Korean Won (KRW. ‘Roll Over’ does not exist. Ω (t ) . the transaction volume of that future is about five times more than that of the second nearest month’s future. as the volume weighted sum of trade indicators within ∆ t . 2004. There are four kinds of index futures that have different maturities. So. So. we discard those days. One futures contract size is 500. closing call market (15:05~15:15) and continuous double auction market (9:00~15:05). Because we found some errors (omission of raw data) on several days such as December 8. 2002 to March 31. Since all orders and trades are ten milliseconds time-stamped. to quantify demand.e. We use all trades and quotes recorded during continuous trading secession of each day and w e discard the call trading secession data. we define the volume imbalance. We calculate bid-ask price. hereafter) times the current level of the KOSPI 200 index value.000 KRW) Using the historical Trade and Quote (TAQ) database of the KOSPI 200 index futures provided by Korea Stock Exchange (KRX). we may observe some peculiar phenomenon unique to KOSPI 200 index futures market. we can easily identify who initiates trade (buyer or seller). (i. Two Phase Phenomenon As in Plerou et al (2003). The trading secession of KOSPI 200 index futures market consists of pre-opening call market (8:00~9:00). 3. 2004 or and D ecember 20. total sample size is about (little more than) three years. 2003. Our sample period is from September 2001. So we use only the nearest month future data. to December 2004 3. (36 months. 25. Tick size is 0.

We draw probability density functions conditional on Σ . In other words. qi denotes th e i-th transaction volume. So we let ai have only two values depending on who initiates the trade. we split local deviation to a tighter interval and calculate order parameter Ψ ( Σ) . Unlike a quote-driven market or a hybrid market such as NASDAQ or NYSE. the critical point of Σ ( Σc ) is where the behavior of system suffers qualitative change. 1 ai = −1 ai . there is no mid -quote transaction in a pure order-driven market. is defined as the first centered moment of volume weighted trade indicators. (1) Σ ≤ − 1 (2) −1 < Σ ≤ 0 (3) 0 < Σ ≤ 1 (4) 1 < Σ ≤ 2 (5) 2 < Σ ≤ 3 (6) 3 < Σ We find explicit two -phase behavior when order imbalance fluctuates.2.N denotes the number of transaction within time interval ∆t . [Figure 1 is about here] As in Plerou et al (2003). Σ(t ) = qi ai − qi ai . is 1 if i th transaction is buyer -initiated trade. PDF shows singlepeaked shape for small Σ values and double peaked shape for large Σ values. The order parameter Ψ = Ψ( Σ) is defined as the value of Ω ± where P( Ω | Σ) has its maximum value. trade indicator. (Normalized) Local deviation interval has following six intervals. to investigate wherein the phase shift phenomenon occurss. Figure 1 shows how P(Ω | Σ) change as Σ changes. Ω and Σ are normalized so that they have zero mean and first unite centered moment. and -1 if i-th - transaction if seller-initiated trade. at about -0. (2) where <> means local expectation value. and there 4 . Σ(t ) . We find a phase shift arise when Σ is around -0.2. The local noise density.

They insist that the fat tail property of power law distribution relates the two phase behavior of the volume imbalance ( Ω ) when it is volatile. [Figure 2 is about here]\ 4. qi can sometimes have a very large value. So we can find any fat tailed property of empirical PDF of qi and we are sure that qi doesn’t follow power-law distribution. Matia and Yamasaki (2005) finds that two-phase behavior arises when the market variable. the large portion of qi is just 1. They explain since the volume imbalance. and this directly relates to bifurcation of conditional PDF. And since institutional traders often summit very large orders. qi . Figure 2 shows that Ψ (Σ ) =0 where Σ < Σc and Ψ ( Σ ) = (Σ − Σ c ) / 3 where Σ > > Σc . Using simulation. follows power -law distribution. This is because the individual trader (who are mostly regarded as noisy traders) dominates other type of traders in our market. one can observe a two-phase behavior irrespective of other variables’ distributions such as the number of transactions( N ) or the trade indicator( ai ).exists only one peak in conditional PDF P( Ω | Σ) if Σ is smaller than Σ c and there exists double peaks in conditional PDF P( Ω | Σ ) if Σ is larger than Σ c . Their results show that if each transaction volume( qi ) generated by power-law distribution. In the case of KOSPI 200 index futures market. is function of qi . But we suspect their argument because qi 5 . Ω . then Ω also has a functional form of power-law. P( Ω | Σ) . The Characteristics of Market Variables The two-phase behavior that we reported in the last section can be relate to the properties of variables that compose Ω and Σ as pervious works pointed. Matia and Yamasaki (2005) insist that the only important factor that generates the two phase behavior is the power-law distribution of qi and the distribution of N or ai doesn’t matter.

N (t ) i =1 i N ( t) i =1 (3) Q(t ) : Summation of whole trans action volume during ∆ t . For example. proxies for liquidity (number of transaction. ∆t =1min. ∆t . they are skewed and fat-tailed.16(%) of the transaction volume is more than one hundred contracts. [Figure 4 is about here] 5 It is usually known. Basic time interval is one-minute. the market microstructure variables. We investigate how market variables are empirically distributed. trading volume. [Table 1 is about here] Figure 3 shows the PDF of log transformation of the following variables5. Q(t ) = ∑ q i All market variables are calculated during time interval. To eliminate this trend. Nearly half of the transaction volume is just one contract and 1. Table 1 shows the rough distribution of qi . Comparing Gaussian distribution.doesn’t follow as power law distribution of fat-tail distribution. Market variables (1) N : number of transactions during ∆ t (2) q (t ) : Average transaction volume during ∆ t . 2001 should be divided by the mean value of the variables calculated from 9:00 to 9:01 of whole sample day. they are more similar to power -law distribution which has fat tail. When compared to Gaussian distribution. bid-ask spread) show intra day U-shape or downward sloping patterns. we divide each variable by the mean value which is estimated by the values included in the same intraday interval of whole sample day. 6 . [Figure 3 is about here] Figure 4 shows the CDF of above variables. the variables calculated from 9:00 to 9:01 of September 2. q (t ) = 1 N (t ) ∑q .

N1 + N 2 + N 3 . z (n ) = an + b is local trend For example.. al. First. 1 4 2 ∑ ε for each interval.. use the linear least square method to get the locally detrended residual (detrended fluctuation function) in each interval. The detrended fluctuation function is calculated from F 2 (τ ) = 1 kτ 2 ∑τ +1 y (n) − z(n) k = 1.2. refer Vandewalle et. “Detrended fluctuation analysis of the foreign exchange market” 7 . Finally we 4 i =1 1 4 2 ∑ ε and this average value is the one point in figure 4 i =1 6 For more details on this procedure. For normalized market variables which eliminate intraday pattern. we make integrated process. we divide the whole sequence of each market variable into N/t non-overlapping interval. N1 + N2 + N 3 + N 4 are regressed local time points 1. N1 + N2 ..3. 3. And we get the residual and calculate average the time series of corresponding τ =4. The procedure of detrended fluctuation analysis 6 follows. Figure 5 shows detrended fluctuation of each market variable. The 4 points N1 .. N / τ τ n =( k −1) y(n) is market variable.And we use the method of detrended fluctuation to measure power -law time correlations in each market variable if it follows power-law distribution. 4. in the case of N ( n ) for the τ =4. 2. [Figure 5 is about here] Each point is calculated as follows. We make integrated process and . In each time interval the number of data points is t.

5. Namely. Q(t ) ) seem to follow power-law distribution and have fat tailed property. This state corresponds to ‘ Σ < Σ c ’ market phase. qi does not. 512. it is swiftly reflected to price and volume imbalance. The Possible Cause of Two Phase Behavior and Concluding Remarks The two phase behavior may be generated by power-law distribution property of market variables as Matia and Yamasaki (2005) insist. In Matia and Yamasaki (2005). But according to their argument. they can’t observe a two-phase behavior. they ignore serial correlatio n of each variable. if the information shock arrives at the liquidity-abundant and efficient derivative market. 8. So if this happens. 32. 64. 8 . if qi does not follow power-law distribution. If the information shock arrives at the market. We can observe symmetric single modal distribution of the volume imbalance if the net demand stays in the equilibrium state. depending on the sign of information shock (positive or negative information). the transactions are d erived by one side. the probability that a transaction is initiated by buyer is equal to the probability that a transaction is initiated by seller.Second we average detrended fluctuation function. 256. ask or bid side. even in the case when N is generated from power -law distribution. Without information shock in the market. there is no reason to occur statistically net demand or net supply. the loglog plot of detrended fluctuation function versus interval size τ is straight line. Or the autocorrelation of ai is an important factor for two -phase behavior. We set time size t as 4. such as KOSPI 200 index futures market. F (τ ) . 128. over the N / τ intervals and get a function whic h depends on the interval size τ . however. 1024 and 2048 minutes. although three market variables ( N . q (t ) . But in our market. 16. If the F (τ ) follows power -law distribution ( F ~ t α ). the fluctuation and local noise intensity of volume imbalance increase. It still may be important for q (t ) or Q(t ) to have fat tailed property for twophase behavior. Furthermore.

This state corresponds to ‘ Σ > Σc ’ market phase. 9 . This may be the important reason we can still find the two-phase behavior even when qi doesn’t follow power-law distribution. The two-phase behavior is not just an echo of qi ’s power -law distribution as Matia and Yamasaki(2005) insist. rather it relates to the information effect. When information shock arrives. the autocorrelation of trader indicator ai is not zero. It will show that price continuation and this reflects that the transactions are biased on one side.This is why we can observe a two-phase behavior when the local noise intensity is large enough. We can observe symmetric bimodal distribution of the volume imbalance.

Plerou V. European Physical Journal B 3. and Stanley H. 226-251. Mandelbrot. 38. Meyer M. 513 -517. 2. 2003. Xavier Gabaix. 5. Vol 62. 267–270.. K.. Yamasaki. 2002. vol. 64. vol. Gopikrishnan P. Ausloos. 34-105. Meyer M. 130..A. vol 1. 394-419. number 3 Vandewalle.. Gopikrishnan P. 5305–5316. Inverse cubic law for the distribution of stock price variations. and H.. Statistical properties of demand fluctuation in the financial market. 4.6. B. 10 . Rev.Eugene Stanley . H. K.Reference s Fama. Luis A. 2005. 423... . Two-phase behavior of financial markets. and St anley H. Parameswaran Gopikrishnan.. 1999. Gopikrishnan P. A brief history of generative models for power law and lognormal distributions.. M. pp. and Stanley H. 1. Parameswaran Gopikrishnan. 36. Eugene F. Vasiliki Plerou.. Plerou V.. The Journal of Business. N. no. The variation of certain speculative prices. vol..E.. M. 2001. Scaling of the distributions of fluctuations of financial market indices. working paper .1963. Nature. pp. Matia. The Journal of Business. Vasiliki Plerou. Mitzenmacher. 1965. no. Quantifying and interpreting collective behavior in financial markets. The behavior of stock-market prices. Boveroux. Economic fluct uations and anomalous diffusion.. 139–140. 1998. Detrended fluctuation analysis of the foreign exchange market... Nature. Vasiliki Plerou..E. no.A. Quantitative Finance. Vol 421. Amaral L. Physical review. Eugene Statnley. pp. Vol. A theory of power -law distributions in financial market fluctuations. Eugene Stanley. Gabaix X. Physics Review E 60. No. 2000. Nunes Amaral.. Phys. Ph. Gopikrishnan P..E. and H. Amaral L. Bernd Rosenow. Internet Mathematics . vol.N.N.

651 2.Table 1 qi q=1 1<q<=5 5<q<=10 10<q<=50 50<q<=100 100<q (%) 47.858 10.1617 11 .612 8.1834 1.534(%) 29.

(1) Σ ≤ −1 (2) − 1 < Σ ≤ 0 (3) 0 < Σ ≤ 1 (4) 1 < Σ ≤ 2 (5) 2 < Σ ≤ 3 (6) 3 < Σ Ω is the volume imbalance. .5 0 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 Volume imbalance 2 3 4 5 12 . Ω and Σ are normalized so that they have zero mean and first unite 2. Ω (t ) = QB − QS = ∑ qi ai and Σ is the local noise intensity.5 sigma<-1 -1<sigma<=0 0<sigma<=1 1<sigma<=2 2<sigma<=3 3<sigma 2 Conditioanl density 1. P( Ω | Σ ) for varying Σ interval. i =1 N (t ) Σ(t ) = qi ai − qi ai centered moment.5 1 0.Figure 1 Figure 1 shows conditional density of the volume imbalance.

where the maximum value of the conditional density of the volume imbalance.6 0.5 13 .2 0 -0.5 -1 -0.Figure 2 Order parameter Ψ = Ψ( Σ) means.5 0 0.4 -0.8 -1 -1. 1 0.6 -0.5 1 Local Deviation 1.5 2 2.4 Order Parameter 0.2 -0.1 interval to calculate order parameter Ψ (Σ ) . We split local deviation to 0.8 0. given Σ .

Figure 3 0.3 pdf 0.5 pdf 0.2 0.6 0.05 0 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 Volume -1 0 1 2 3 14 .7 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.15 0.2 0.4 pdf 0.8 0.35 0.2 0.45 0.1 0 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 N 0 1 2 3 4 0.9 0.25 0.3 0.1 0 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 AverageVolume 3 4 5 0.7 0.5 0.

5 3 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 1-CDF -6 -7 -8 -9 -10 -11 -12 0 0.Figure 4 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 1-CDF -6 -7 -8 -9 -10 -11 -12 0 0.5 1 1.5 1 1.5 N 2 2.5 N 2 2.5 AverageVolume 2 2.5 3 15 .5 1 1.5 3 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 CDF -6 -7 -8 -9 -10 -11 -12 0 0.

5 Volume 2 2.5 1 1.-1 -2 -3 -4 -5 CDF -6 -7 -8 -9 -10 -11 -12 0 0.5 AverageVolume 2 2.5 3 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 CDF -6 -7 -8 -9 -10 -11 -12 0 0.5 3 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 1-CDF -6 -7 -8 -9 -10 -11 -12 0 0.5 3 16 .5 1 1.5 Volume 2 2.5 1 1.

8 -1 -1.Figure 5 N 0.2 0 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0 -0.2 -0.6 -0.2 -1.2 -0.2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 17 .4 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Volume 0.4 -0.8 -1 -1.

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