You are on page 1of 1

October 01, 2012 To: Interested Parties Fr: John Anzalone / Zac McCrary Re: Summary of Polling Results

among Likely Voters in Texas 14th Congressional District Recent polling shows former Congressman Nick Lampson in a highly competitive race with Republican Randy Weber in the race for Texas new 14th Congressional District. Polling conducted post-Republican primary and runoff, after Weber was the benefit of significant free media and hundreds of thousands of dollars in paid media, reveals a very narrow Weber lead within the margin of error. However, this poll was taken before Lampson began to leverage his anticipated significant advantage in general election communications. Beyond the current head-to-head scenario, Lampson shows the expansion potential necessary to secure a majority of the vote. Given the resources to fund an aggressive grassroots and media plan to introduce himself to new voters and rebut Republican attacks, Nick Lampson has a clear path to victory in November. Even before his paid communications program begins, Nick Lampson is well-known and popular among 14th District voters. Roughly two-in-three voters are already familiar with Lampson (65% name-identification), with 40% districtwide viewing him favorably and 25% viewing him unfavorably. Lampsons name-ID is 26 points higher than Webers name-ID (39%) an advantage worth hundreds of thousands of dollars of paid communications in a district dominated by the expensive Houston media market. When identified as a Democratic former member of Congress, 47% of district voters give Lampson a positive job rating for his previous congressional tenure to just one-in-three (33%) who rate his previous service negatively. The race is within the margin-of-error, but Lampson is over 50% among voters who are familiar with him. Weber did receive a modest bump after securing the GOP nomination, but the vote is still within the margin of error (43% Lampson / 46% Weber). Lampsons vote share has remained in the mid 40s throughout the 2012 cycle, showing sustained strength despite conserving the entirety of his paid media budget for a post-Labor Day push. More than one-third (35%) of Weber voters indicate there is still at least a small chance they will vote for Lampson with 13% indicating there is a fair chance they will ultimately side with Lampson. Among the 65% of voters initially familiar with Lampson, he earns majority support (Lampson 51% / Weber 42%). The Lampson campaigns robust television and mail communications will introduce him to the rest of the electorate over the last two months of the campaign and address the disparity in Lampson support among voters who are familiar with and those who are not.

Anzalone Liszt Research conducted N=500 live telephone interviews with likely 2012 general election voters in the new Texas 14 th Congressional District. Interviews were conducted between August 14-19, 2012. Respondents were selected at random, with interviews apportioned geographically based on past voter turnout. Expected margin of sampling error is 4.4% with a 95% confidence level.