Newspoll in the field 19-21 October 17 Oct 17 Oct Kevin Rudd interview on Lateline, calling for more civility in politics
Robert McClelland criticises role of PM’s office in Australia Day kerfuffle Newspoll in the field 5-7 October Primary vote: ALP 33, Coalition 45 2PP: ALP 46, Coalition 54 PM approval: 50, disapproval 36 Preferred PM: Gillard 43, Abbott 33 3 Oct 28 Sept Kevin Rudd comments on car industry support debate Kevin Rudd holds press conference and defends Lindsay Tanner’s remarks. "Mr Swan's contributed to it, Mr Burke's contributed to it, Ms Roxon's contributed to it and now Mr Tanner has as well," Mr Rudd told reporters. Martin Ferguson swipes Julia Gillard over electricity prices Newspoll delayed by one week due to long weekend in most states 26 Sept Lindsay Tanner’s Gang of Four piece in The Australian and associated media appearances Peter Hartcher on latest Nielsen poll: Today's poll allows her defenders to make this case: stick with Gillard because her comeback is working, Abbott is in deepening difficulty, there is a year to the next election and she deserves a chance to continue to rebuild. Yet this is not an open-and-shut response to the prospect of another Kevin Rudd leadership challenge because today's poll also contains a striking finding - if Labor replaced Gillard with Rudd, its fortunes would be transformed. A Rudd leadership would give Labor the same scale of victory over the Abbott Coalition as Rudd delivered against the John Howard Coalition in 2007.
Rudd could do it again, on these numbers. Newspoll in the field 14-16 September Primary vote: ALP 36, Coalition 41 2PP: ALP 50, Coalition 50 PM approval: 36, disapproval 52 Preferred PM: Gillard 46, Abbott 32 15 Sept Peter Hartcher “It was a moment of ironic tang for some in the room. Some caucus members remembered hearing Julia Gillard justify her coup against Kevin Rudd by saying that she was not so much troubled by the Rudd government's difficulties but by the fact that he seemed to have no plan to get out of difficulty.” “The Gillard government says it is a year from an election, yet it is so busy campaigning that it is getting very sloppy at governing. The Labor caucus craves a strategy but it is getting a campaign and not a very rational one.” 12 Sept 10-12 Sept Rudd interviewed on 730 from China PM on bereavement leave Newspoll in the field 31 Aug – 2 September Primary vote: ALP 33, Coalition 46 2PP: ALP 45, Coalition 55 PM approval: 31, disapproval 57 Preferred PM: Gillard 39, Abbott 38 1 Sept Peter Hartcher on Rudd’s launch of the Whitlam biography: The truth is that the complaints about Rudd's temper and egosim, guilty though he was, were trivial in the scheme of things. They were an ex post facto rationalisation for an ill-considered coup. They were not a serious disqualification for a prime minister, especially a Labor one. The public, after all, heard all the stories yet still rate Rudd as preferred Labor leader by a factor of two to one. Only the caucus is having grave difficulty in getting over its own confected outrage. In the months ahead, the caucus will allow the polls to dictate whether it's time.
28 August 27 August
Rudd launches Whitlam biography
Peter Hartcher reports on the latest Nielsen poll, which shows a small recovery for Labor. In other words, as Stirton puts it, ''the result for Labor has gone from being catastrophic to standard, garden-variety landslide''. An election today would see Labor suffer a defeat of about the same magnitude as the Keating government suffered at the hands of John Howard in 1996. Now, as then, the mood is simply that Labor's time is up. The Gillard government has done nothing to change that mood.
Peter Hartcher: With an entire ecosystem of anti-Gillard activists, dedicated promoters of the Wilson scandal like Nowicki and Blewitt, a split and bitter Labor caucus, and the anti-Gillard agenda of The Australian, this affair is not going to fade away. Indeed, Gillard has now turbocharged this affair. She has elevated it to a legitimate subject of prime ministerial scrutiny. She said she would not lower herself to answer any future questions. But no matter how resolutely she tries to tough this out, new material and new questions will not stop coming.
Peter Hartcher says that despite the press conference, the PM has not put the issue to bed. One reason is that “there are also her enemies in caucus, who are aiding and encouraging the campaign.” Gillard holds press conference to answer Slater & Gordon allegations
Newspoll in the field 17-19 August Primary vote: ALP 35, Coalition 45 2PP: ALP 47, Coalition 53 PM approval: 27, disapproval 60 Preferred PM: Gillard 38, Abbott 38 18 August Three days after praising Gillard for the asylum seeker outcome, Peter Hartcher says she is Judy to Tony Abbott’s Punch, that she is the Coalition’s best asset and that Abbott would have no chance against Rudd’s popularity.
Barrie Cassidy: “It is of course in the interests of Rudd supporters to make it as difficult for the PM as they can. That has in the past meant manipulating the media to run negative stories on the eve of Newspolls. That didn’t happen I the run up to the last one when the ALP gained a 5% boost in its primary vote. The camp went quiet during the winter break, no doubt resting up for their spring offensive.” PM back from leave – runs on electricity prices
Week of 6 Aug
Newspoll in the field 3-5 August Primary vote: ALP 33, Coalition 45 2PP: ALP 46, Coalition 54 PM approval: 30, disapproval 60 Preferred PM: Gillard 36, Abbott 38 3 August 2012 Week of 30 Jul 27 July Hedley Thomas revives the union funds scandal
PM on leave
Laura Tingle: Rudd has run close to dead since the February ballot lest he be seen to do anything 4nstitutional… supporters of the PM see signs everywhere of Rudd … ever since late May, they argue, there has been a campaign to cause trouble for the PM on the weekends that Newspoll is in the field … It might be paranoia. There may well be something in it.
Paul Kelly: Events of the past 10 days affirm that public destabilization of Gillard’s leadership is institutionalised. What is Rudd waiting for? For the Labor Party to sink into the depths of despair. In truth, it is only when Labor is absolutely desperate that it can form a collective view on the historic crisis it confronts. That may or may not happen. With Gillard’s primary vote at 28 per cent, Labor must choose between oblivion and making Rudd’s return a viable project.
Newspoll in the field 20-22 July Primary vote: ALP 28, Coalition 46 2PP: ALP 44, Coalition 56 PM approval: 29, disapproval 62 Preferred PM: Gillard 36, Abbott 40 21 Jul Peter van Onselen says Rudd backers have renewed backgrounding – tired of waiting for polls to improve. Shorten and Howes seen in lengthy talks with Rudd in the US. Fitzgibbon’s comment “wasn't a frank slip of the tongue either. Rudd supporters had earlier in the day shopped around that Q&A was not to be missed that Monday night, anticipating that comments from Fitzgibbon would cause a stir.” 21 July 21 July Melbourne by-election Caroline Overington story about Rudd’s interview in the Women’s Weekly Union leaders’ meeting said to have canvassed change of PM Rudd and senior colleagues in US attending annual leadership dialogue
18 July Week of 16-20 July 16 July 14-15 July
Joel Fitzgibbon on Q&A NSW ALP State Conference debate on green preferences
Newspoll in the field 6-8 July Primary vote: ALP 31, Coalition 48 2PP: ALP 44, Coalition 56 PM approval: 27, disapproval 61 Preferred PM: Gillard 36, Abbott 39 7 July 7 July Therese Rein’s “ready to serve” comment Sam Dastyari moves to change automatic preferencing to Greens, casting shadow on wisdom of Gillard to form minority government with them Peter Hartcher on Nielsen poll following asylum seeker bill failure:
“Curiously, this proportion blaming the Gillard government - six in 10 comes up again and again across the poll results. Six out of 10 oppose the carbon tax; six out of 10 disapprove of Gillard; and six out of 10 votes would go to the Coalition on a two-party preferred basis in an election held now.” 27-28 June Oakeshott’s asylum seeker bill fails
Newspoll in the field 22-24 June Primary vote: ALP 30, Coalition 46 2PP: ALP 45, Coalition 55 PM approval: 30, disapproval 59 Preferred PM: Gillard 39, Abbott 38 23 June 21 June Peter Hartcher on 2nd anniversary of Gillard becoming PM Robert McClelland resurrects the 1995 union funds scandal by making a speech in federal parliament in which he speaks of Gillard's role then, and his own role as a lawyer for an opposing side. Peter Hartcher commenting on Gillard’s Q&A performance: Rudd demonstrated this at the 2007 election when he made fiscal restraint, not extravagance, a virtue. “This sort of reckless spending has to stop!" Rudd exclaimed as he deliberately underbid Howard. Gillard failed to learn the lesson. Labor, it seems, is fated to learn it all over again. Voters will take the money, Prime Minister, but they will not respect you for it. You saw that firsthand on Monday. The electoral gratitude you court is a figment of your political imagination. The cost to the national Treasury is not. 11 June PM appears on Q&A Newspoll in the field 7-10 June Primary vote: ALP 31, Coalition 44 2PP: ALP 46, Coalition 54 PM approval: 32, disapproval 58 Preferred PM: Gillard 42, Abbott 38 9 June AFR story that three Labor Senators (Rudd supporters) said they would lose their seats with Gillard as leader, on the basis of the latest
Nielsen poll 6 June Paul Kelly: Rudd’s ambition is an elemental force. Rudd faces a conflict between his vaulting ambition and his calculating mind. There is only one situation in which Labor would reconsider the Rudd option. It is when Labor's prospects are finished. It is when the party has passed the threshold of utter despair, after it has entered the gates of hell, when its soul is lost and its pain unbearable. Only when Labor's doom is irreversible and all hope is abandoned, only at this point might the caucus, weak, frightened and shamefaced, ask Kevin to forgive and return. Only then.
Peter Hartcher reports on Nielsen poll Abbott and Gillard are equally unpopular leaders - the difference between Abbott's disapproval rating of 57 per cent and Gillard's 60 per cent is a ''statistically insignificant'' three percentage points in a poll with a margin of error of 2.6 per cent, Stirton points out. Yet there are other politicians the voters quite like - the immediate predecessors of today's leaders, Kevin Rudd and Malcolm Turnbull.
Peter Hartcher uses leaked information from unions’ private meeting with PM on importing workers for Roy Hill iron ore mine: “The Australian electorate has long suspected that neither was a true leader of real stature. This past eight days has added new weight to an old suspicion.” Newspoll in the field 25-27 May Primary vote: ALP 32, Coalition 46 2PP: ALP 46, Coalition 54 PM approval: 30, disapproval 60 Preferred PM: Gillard 40, Abbott 37