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B Ogedengbe Department: Mechanical Engineering (Thermofluids Option) University of Lagos, Akoka-Yaba, Lagos, Nigeria. Term Paper Submitted in Partial Fulfillment for the Requirement of MEE 800 ABSTRACT A unique forecast model is developed based on criterion data supplied from energhx and prediction data gathered over the internet. A combination of Excel and Matlab programming was used and the outcome is presented. It was discovered that Temperature change is the most important weather factor influencing consumption of Natural Gas. INTRODUCTION Background In operation and planning of utility companies, make or buy decisions on electric power generations, load switching and infrastructure development are greatly enhanced by the development of accurate models for electric power load forecasting. [1] The timely implementations of decisions lead to improvement of network reliability and help reduces equipment failures and blackouts. Electricity cannot be stored, hence the amounts sold, amounts bought and amounts consumed must all coincide each and every time [4]. Demand Side Monitoring is one of the mechanisms that can be used to ensure compatibility between the commercial side of the business (buying and selling) and its technical side (generation and consumption). Hence, we can see that load forecasting is a major tool that can be used by the energy planner to balance the demand and supply of energy via Demand Side Management (DSM). Types of Forecasting Load forecasting analyses are of three (3) types; they are short term, mid-term and long-term in general. [1][2] Short Term Forecasting: Hourly and daily forecasts are classified as short term load forecasting. Usually, short term load variations are non-linear due to dependence on knowledge measured in short times which can vary from several minutes to an hour or 168 hours.[9] However, consumers load profiles can be obtained from short term estimations. [3] Basically, short term load forecasting aids the scheduling of functions that determine the most economic commitment of generation sources consistent with reliability requirements, operational constraints and policies, and physical, environmental and equipment limitations.[4]

Mid Term Demand Forecasting: are also known as intermediate forecasting, here time domain is from a few days to several months. Long Term Demand Forecasting: this can range from few to more than 10 years. Generally, all the types of forecasting methods can be differentiated in terms of time window, Forecasted values, and aims of forecasts.

Source: Pituk Bunnoon, Kusumal Chalermyanont, and Chusak Limsakul, "A Computing Model of Artificial Intelligent Approaches to Mid - term Load Forecasting: A State - of - the - Art surver for the Researcher", International Journal of Engineering and Technology, Vol 2, No 1, February 2010. Page The Role of Forecasting in Demand Side Monitoring

The purpose of Demand Side Monitoring (DSM) of domestic and non-domestic energy stocks is to optimize their constitutive energy components and consequently lower their natural gas consumption and electricity usage [5]. It was further asserted that the employment of the DSM approach would be evidenced by increase in the usage efficiencies of the energy stocks [5]. Forecasters combine techniques and experience to obtain aggregate annual forecasts as well as a prediction of hour by hour demand for electricity in individual sectors. This results in a useful tool for tariff setting and in designing demand side management programs. [6], [7].

Methods of Forecasting Meetamehra [7] identified five major methods of load forecasting for Demand Side Monitoring as enumerated below i. Trend Analysis: Trend analysis presumes that the pattern of the variable in the past will continue in the future, without regards to other demographic, policy and technical variables. Hence defining energy demand as purely a function of time. The major merit of this method is the simplicity and ease of use but it is constrained for short terms projections only as the possible interactions of other variables especially economic factors would have been ignored. End Use Method: The basis of this method is that energy is required for the service that it delivers and not as a final good. The Energy Consumption in kwh(E), penetration level in terms of number of such appliances per customer(S), Number

ii.

of customers(N), Power required by appliance in kW(P), hours of appliance use (H) is given as E=SxNxPxH The process the approach implicitly captures the price, income and other economic and policy effects as well. The end-use approach is most effective when new technologies and fuels have to be introduced and when there is lack of adequate time-series data on trends in consumption and other variables. However, the approach demands a high level of detail on each of the end-uses. One criticism raised against the method is that it may lead to a mechanical forecasting of demands, without adequate regard for behavioral responses of consumers. Also, it also does not give regard to the variations in the consumption patterns due to demographic, socio-economic, or cultural factors. iii. Econometric Method: This approach combines economic theory with statistical methods to produce a system of equations for forecasting energy demand. Taking time-series or cross-sectional/pooled data, causal relationships could be established between electricity demand and other economic variables. These variables could be population, income per capita or value added or output (in industry or commercial sectors), price of power, price(s) of alternative fuels (that could be used as substitutes), proxies for penetration of appliances/equipment (capture technology effect in case of industries) etc. Thus, one would have: ED = f (Y, Pi, Pj, POP, T) Where, ED = electricity demand Y Pj = price of related fuels = output or income Pi = own price -----------------------------eq 1

Several functional forms and combinations of these and other variables may have to be tried till the basic assumptions of the model are met and the relationship is found statistically significant. iv. Fuel Share Models: A variant of econometric models involving two step approaches to energy demand forecast. First, the total energy consumption by a sector is estimated, which is then used in the determination of fuel shares, defined as ratios of individual fuels consumed to the total energy consumption by the sector. Time Series Method: An ordered set of data values of a certain variable is regarded as a Time Series. Time series models are, essentially, econometric models where the only explanatory variables used are lagged values of the variable to be explained and predicted. The intuition underlying time-series processes is that the future behavior of variables is related to its past values, both actual and predicted,

v.

with some adaptation/adjustment built-in to take care of how past realizations deviated from those expected. Thus, the essential prerequisite for a time series forecasting technique is data for the last 20 to30 time periods. The difference between econometric models based on time series data and time series models lies in the explanatory variables used. It is worthwhile to highlight here that in an econometric model, the explanatory variables (such as incomes, prices,

PROPOSED METHODOLOGY The energy stock being considered in this paper is Natural Gas Consumed by R1 Ottawa. Based on predictor data given; an approach suitable for medium forecasting should be adopted. Mid and long-term forecasts should take into account the historical load and weather data, the number of customers in dierent categories, the appliances in the area and their characteristics including age, the economic and demographic data and their forecasts, the appliance sales data, and other factors. [1] This paper will consider the impact of historical weather on monthly records of Natural Gas Consumption, using simple regression analysis. The analysis will involve multiple regressions of Mean Temperature, Total Rain, Total Snow and Speed of Max Gust winds with the given consumption data. This is a problem where, based on observation of a dependent variable Y and a large set of potential predictors X1, ...., Xp, one could build the "best" multiple regression model. More precisely, one would like to find and fit the "best" linear regression model of the form Y=X*1B*1 +......+X*qB*q which is a selectedd subset of X1, ....., Xp. Two stages are involved, 1. Selection: to use a criterion based on the data to select X*1,....,X*q, 2. 2. Estimation: of the coefficients B*1,.....B*q by least squares".[10] This is because, it is necessary to achieve a level of tradeoff between predictive or explanatory power and parsimony. It is academic to consider a risk inflation factor i.e. the maximum increase in the risk of usage of natural gas in this case. Mean Temperature, Total Precipitation and Speed of Max Gust winds were subjectively considered as factors influencing Domestic Water Heating (DWH) and Space Heating. Since, DHW and Space Heating have been identified as the end use of Natural Gas [5]. This will account for end use requirements of the natural gas consumed. Hence, this approach is closest to the end use method because while the information on the end equipment are not available, factors driving the use of these equipment have been identified and considered in the model development. The predictor Mean Temperature takes into account Mean Max Temperature mean Min Temperature, Extra Max Temperature and Extra Min Temperature for the month as seen on chart. While the Total precipitation is usually a combination of rainfall and snow falls. Speed of maximum gust wind is an indirect measure of the amount of sunshine since wind is produced as a result of the uneven heating of the earth surface by the sun. It is logical to say that these three criterions play important role in the degree of Thermal Comfort which is the actual risk inflation factor as it determines the need for DHW and Space heating.

Y = Natural Gas Consumption (m3) X1 = Mean Temperature in Ottawa (oC) X2 = Total Precipitation X3 = Speed of Max Gust Wind. For any given individual linear regression

, Y = XiBi +

----------eq 2

Where

=

on

Calculations, Results and Discussions Data The criterion variable, the natural gas consumption in OTTAWA Residential Area 1, is as shown below

Data was gathered on Ottawa for typical years as shown in charts and tables below

Fig 2: Average min and max temperatures in Ottawa, Canada Source: www.weather-and-climate.com

Fig 3: Average min and max temperatures in Ottawa, Canada Source: www.weather-and-climate.com

Fig 3: Average min and max temperatures in Ottawa, Canada Source: www.weather-and-climate.com

Calculations Step 1: The data was regrouped as shown in the table below

Natural Gas Consumption (m3) (Y) 98.00 74.00 7.0 0 15.00 22.00 83.00 438.00 398.00 623.00 389.00 196.00 200.00 31.00 44.00 42.00 43.00 38.00 65.00 435.00 418.00 541.00 402.00 249.00 159.00 Mean Temperature (X1) 17.80 19.00 19.80 14.60 6.50 4.10 6.50 7.50 5.40 3.10 9.50 15.60 17.90 22.70 20.50 15.10 8.00 1.60 5.60 10.70 8.10 2.50 6.40 13.90 Total Precipitation (X2) 120.2 0 50.00 173.4 0 170.0 0 67.20 79.20 66.20 54.50 49.20 45.20 89.00 84.20 69.80 243.6 0 90.60 61.00 106.6 0 41.00 90.40 30.20 43.40 81.60 167.0 0 94.80 Speed of max Gust (X3) 50.00 46.00 80.00 65.00 57.00 82.00 63.00 72.00 59.00 70.00 61.00 59.00 37.00 52.00 56.00 48.00 57.00 56.00 57.00 54.00 83.00 59.00 95.00 57.00

Month Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11

Step 2: The coefficient of correlation was done as shown in the red cells find in the attached excel files. The Correlate Command was used based on the General formula

(Xi2) 1/n(Xi)2 (Yi2) 1/n(Yi)2

Step 3: Standardized Regression Coefficients were calculated using a matlab m file that solves a 3x3 matrix via Gaussian eliminations. The outputs of the matlab command window is as pasted below: (Please note that the matlab file was created during the previous assignments). And it is attached to the document also. >> GESolve

A= 1.0000 0.5800 -0.3474 0.5800 1.0000 0.1880 -0.3474 0.1880 1.0000 Supply right hand side vector matric b>>>b b= -0.8036 -0.4401 0.2781 Solution of Linear Equations -0.8437 0.0540 -0.0252 >> Note this solutions corresponds with regression coefficients t1 = -0.8437, t2=0.0540 and t3= 0.0252.

This result was inputted back into the excel file and i i was computed in the excel file. Finally

tr

R was computed.

Mean Temperature(X1), Total Precipitation(X2), and Speed of Max Gust (X3) along with Natural Gas Consumption were standardized and unstandardized coefficients of regression were calculated. The Slope of the Equation, Standard Error of Estimates was calculated as shown in the attached excel file. The final Equation of Prediction is obtained and written as Shown Below NGc = 12.73 - 0.707T + 0.141P - 0.553G. ----------eq 4 Note that equation four is the same as equation 3, where Y = NGc (i.e. Natural Gas Consumption)

A = Constant T = Forecasted/Given Temperature P = Total Precipitation Forecast And G = Speed of max Gust Wind. Hence the prediction model m file was written based on this equation. This model implies that gas consumption increases with increase in Temperature and Speed of Gust Wind while it decreases with Total Precipitation. Observations, Results and Recommendations Using the Weather information from aforementioned sources source for June, 2011, the model(Forecast) was ran as captured below in the matlab command window

4/4/12 12:57 PM MATLAB Command Window 1 of 1 >> forecast provide the Forecasted Temperature >>> 19.40 provide the Forecasted Total Precipitation >>> 130 provide the Forecasted speed of max gust wind data>>> 70 The estimated gas consumption for the month is = -21.3658

The negative answer in the result implies the depletion or consumption of the Natural Gas Increases with the major predictor(Temperature). Mean Temperature explains 67.8% usage of Natural Gas in Residential Buildings of Ottawa, hence the use of Total Precipitation and Speed of Max Gust wind will not be justified as not too significant contributions were made to this model by the later factors. With a standard error of estimate of about 1.53 more can be done to improve the model by considering only a single predictor, Mean Temperature and by considering the economic factors given availability of data. The model predicted a gas consumption of 21.3658m3 in June 2011. The accuracy of the model should be verified by more experimental data gathering.

References

1. Eugene A. Feinberg, LOAD FORECASTING, Chapter 12. 2. Lacir J. Soares, Marcelo C. Medeiros, Modeling and Forecasting Short - Term Electric

3. Korhan Karabulut, Ahmet Alkan, Ahmet S. Yilmaz, Long Term Energy Consumption

Forecasting Using Genetic Programming, Mathematical and Computational Applications, Vol. 13, No. 2 pp 71 80, 2008.

4. George Kourtis, Ioannis Hadjipaschalis, Andreas Poulikkas, "An Overview of Load

Demand and Price Forecasting Methodologies", International Journal of Energy and Environment, Vol 2, Issue 1, 2011 pp. 123 - 150.

5. E.O.B. Ogendengbe, D.Krachling and Z.A Adem Demand Side Monitoring of Energy

Systems in Ontarios Residential and Commercial Sectors, Energhx School of Energy Management Studies, 2011.

6. Prognos Inc, Collaboration between the Demand Planner and the Statistical Forecast,

2011.

7. Meetamehra, Demand Forecasting for Electricity.

9. Pituk Bunnoon, Kusumal Chalermyanont, and Chusak Limsakul, "A Computing Model of Artificial Intelligent Approaches to Mid - term Load Forecasting: A State - of - the - Art surver for the Researcher", International Journal of Engineering and Technology, Vol 2, No 1, February 2010. 10. Dean P. Foster; Edward I. George The Risk Inflation Criterion for Multiple Regression, Annals of Statistics, Volume 22, Issue 4 (Dec, 1994), 1947 1975.

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