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Quinnipiac University/CBS News Poll For Release: Monday, October 22, 2012 7:00 am ET The Battle for Ohio: President

Obama Holds Lead, But the Race Tightens
October 17-20, 2012

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President Barack Obama is holding on to a lead over Republican Mitt Romney in the Buckeye State, but that margin has been cut in half since September. The President is viewed as better on foreign policy, which will be the focus of tonight’s debate, but his lead has shrunk on this measure. The candidates are now even on handling the economy; last month, the President led by six points on this issue. Romney has also widened his lead over the President on handling the budget deficit. More Ohio voters see Romney as having strong qualities of leadership (64%) than the President (58%), but more continue to say Mr. Obama cares about their needs and problems. A gender gap persists: President Obama still has a double-digit advantage among women, while Romney leads with men.

President Obama now has a 5 point advantage over Romney in this poll, smaller than the 10 point lead he held last month, in the weeks following the Democratic convention and before the Presidential debates. 2012 Vote for President (Among Ohio likely voters) Now 9/26 8/23 8/1 50% 53% 50% 50% 45 43 44 44 3 3 4 4

Obama Romney Don’t know

Early or absentee voting has already begun in most states across the country. One in five Ohio likely voters in this poll say they have already cast their ballot, and the President leads Romney among this group. Among likely voters who have yet to cast their ballot, the race is much closer. 2012 Vote for President (Among Ohio likely voters) Early/Absentee Voters Election Day Voters Obama 54% 49% Romney 39 47 No answer/Don’t know 6 3 As has been the case throughout this election campaign, Ohio Republicans continue to be more enthusiastic than Democrats about voting this year. Enthusiasm among both Republicans and Democrats has increased since last month, but Republicans still have the advantage. More Enthusiastic About Voting this Year (Among Ohio likely voters) Now 9/26 8/23 8/1 Among Republicans 52% 43% 45% 37% Among Democrats 40% 33% 34% 32%

In addition, Romney’s supporters in Ohio are now more strongly behind him. 63% strongly favor him now, up from 51% last month. But the President still has the advantage on this: 74% of his voters strongly back him. Ohio: Who’s Supporting Who? There continues to be a gender gap. The President enjoys a 15-point lead with women, while Romney is ahead by seven points among men. Mr. Obama has a nearly two to one lead with unmarried women, but married women are more divided in their vote preferences. While seniors were split in their support last month, they are now backing Romney over the President by seven points. Young voters still support President Obama by a large margin. Romney has made some inroads with independents; he now leads among this group by seven points. 2012 Vote for President - Ohio (Among likely voters) Now 9/26/2012 Obama Romney Obama Romney 50% 45 53% 43 54% 49% 44% 55% 49% 62% 59% 51% 44% 6% 93% 42% 39 47 51 40 47 33 34 45 51 93 5 49 51 54 49 5 n/a n/a 44% 60% 50% 70% 66% 51% 48% 6% 96% 46% 46% 48% 46% n/a n/a n/a 52 35 46 26 31 46 47 92 2 47 49 49 49 n/a

All Early voters Election Day voters Men Women Married women Unmarried women Age 18-34 Age 35-64 Age 65+ Republicans Democrats Independents

Whites 44% White, coll degree 43% White, no coll degree 45% African Americans The Debate 91%

The two presidential candidates met for a second debate last week, and Ohio likely voters think President Obama came out the winner. Partisanship plays a role here: Most Democrats think Mr. Obama won the debate, while most Republicans say Romney was the winner. Independents choose President Obama as the winner.

Who Won the Second Presidential Debate? (Among Ohio likely voters) All Reps Dems Inds Obama 48% 11% 81% 43% Romney 27 57 4 29 Tie (vol.) 12 19 4 13 Still, most Ohio voters (more than six in 10) say the second debate will not impact their vote choice. Among those who say it will, 19% say it makes them more likely to vote for President Obama, while 14% say it makes them more likely to vote for Romney. Impact of Second Debate on Your Vote (Among Ohio likely voters) All Reps Dems Inds More likely to vote for Obama 19% 2% 36% 14% More likely to vote for Romney 14 28 2 14 No effect 63 66 58 65 Heading into the final debate, 40% of Ohio voters expect President Obama to win that debate, while 31% think Romney will be the winner. Qualities and Issues The President continues to be seen by Ohio voters as caring about their needs and problems – 60% say he does while just 37% he does not – similar to last month. While Mitt Romney has improved on this measure, more voters continue to think he does not care about their needs and problems than think he does. Do They Care About Your Needs and Problems? (Among Ohio likely voters) Barack Obama Mitt Romney Now 9/26 Now 9/26 60% 59% 45% 38% 37 38 50 57

Yes No

Men and women view Mitt Romney differently on this characteristic. While 51% of men think Mitt Romney does care about their needs and problems, most women do not. Majorities of both men and women think Barack Obama cares. Do They Care About Your Needs and Problems? (Among Ohio likely voters) Barack Obama Mitt Romney All Men Women All Men Women 60% 58% 63% 45% 51% 39% 37 39 35 50 44 56

Yes No

Mitt Romney does better on leadership. More Ohio voters think Romney has strong qualities of leadership than think so of Mr. Obama, though majorities say both candidates do. Do They Have Strong Qualities of Leadership? Barack Obama Mitt Romney 58% 64% 40 32

Yes No

The President leads on handling foreign policy and taxes, but his lead on foreign policy is down from last month. President Obama is now polling even with his Republican opponent on the economy – but Mr. Obama led by six points on handling the economy in September. Meanwhile, Mitt Romney has doubled his advantage over Barack Obama on handling the budget deficit, from four points to eight points. Who Would Do a Better Job Handling…? (Among Ohio likely voters) Now 9/26/2012 Obama Romney Obama Romney 51% 43 53% 43 50% 43 54% 41 48% 48 51% 45 43% 51 45% 49

Taxes Foreign policy The economy Budget deficit

But when it comes to who would do a better job helping the middle class, Barack Obama has a 13 point lead over Mitt Romney. Who Would Do a Better Job Helping the Middle Class? (Among Ohio likely voters) Barack Obama 54% Mitt Romney 41 Overall views of Barack Obama remain good; 51% of Ohio voters have a favorable view of him. Views of Mitt Romney are more divided, though favorable views of him have improved since September. Views of the Candidates (Among Ohio likely voters) Barack Obama Mitt Romney Now 9/26 Now 9/26 51% 54% 46% 41% 45 43 48 49

Favorable Unfavorable The Economy

Voters in Ohio are more optimistic now about both the national and state economies than they were in the summer. Now, 37% of Ohio voters think the nation’s economy is getting better – up from 26% at the beginning of August - while 46% believe Ohio’s economy is improving – up from 33%. Direction of the Economy (Among Ohio likely voters) National Economy Ohio Economy Now 8/1/2012 Now 8/1/2012 37% 26% 46% 33% 36 39 22 26 25 34 30 40

Better Worse The same The 2012 Senate Race

In the race for U.S. Senate in Ohio, Democratic incumbent Sherrod Brown continues to lead his Republican rival Josh Mandel.

Brown (D) Mandel (R)

2012 Senate Race (Among Ohio likely voters) Now 9/26 51% 50% 42 40

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------This poll was conducted by telephone from Quinnipiac University’s interviewing facility October 17-20, 2012. The number of Ohio likely voters interviewed is 1,548. Phone numbers were dialed from samples of both standard land-line and cell phones. The error due to sampling for results based on the sample could be plus or minus three percentage points. The error for subgroups may be higher. This poll release conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY/CBS NEWS POLL Ohio October 17-20, 2012 >attn< How much attention have you been paying to the election campaign for President, a lot, some, only a little, or none at all? ****** Tot 73% 20 6 2 TOTAL OHIO LIKELY VOTERS ****** Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 79% 71% 72% 76% 70% 15 21 20 16 23 4 6 6 6 5 1 2 1 1 2 -

A lot Some Only a little None at all DK/NA

1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Mitt Romney the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or Romney? (Table includes leaners and early voters) Obama Romney SMONE ELSE(VOL) DK/NA Tot 50% 45 1 3 Rep 6% 93 2 Dem 93% 5 2 Ind 42% 49 2 7 Men 44% 51 1 3 Wom 55% 40 1 3 Already Voted 54% 39 1 6

1a. (If candidate chosen q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election? Tot Obama Romney Voters Voters Voters 95% 95% 95% 4 5 4 -

Mind made up Might change DK/NA

2. Is your opinion of Mitt Romney favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Favorable Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED Tot 46% 48 4 2 Rep 92% 6 1 Dem 8% 87 4 1 Ind 50% 42 5 3 Men 53% 42 4 1 Wom 40% 53 4 2

3. Is your opinion of Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Favorable Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED Tot 51% 45 2 2 Rep 8% 89 2 1 Dem 92% 6 1 1 Ind 45% 50 2 3 Men 46% 50 1 2 Wom 56% 40 2 2

4. (If Obama q1) Would you describe your support for Barack Obama as strongly favoring him, or do you like him but with reservations, or do you support him because you dislike Mitt Romney? ****** TOTAL OHIO LIKELY VOTERS ****** OBAMA VOTERS Q1......... Tot Men Wom Strongly favor 74% 72% 76% Like/Reservations 19 21 18 Dislike Romney 6 7 5 DK/NA 1 1 5. (If Romney q1) Would you describe your support for Mitt Romney as strongly favoring him, or do you like him but with reservations, or do you support him because you dislike Barack Obama? ROMNEY Tot 63% 27 10 1 VOTERS Men 59% 29 11 1 Q1........ Wom 66% 25 9 -

Strongly favor Like/Reservations Dislike Obama DK/NA

6. If the election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Sherrod Brown the Democrat and Josh Mandel the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Brown or Mandel? (Table includes leaners and early voters) Brown Mandel SMONE ELSE(VOL) DK/NA Tot 51% 42 1 7 Rep 11% 83 6 Dem 90% 6 1 4 Ind 45% 46 1 8 Men 46% 48 1 6 Wom 56% 36 1 8

6a. (If Senate candidate chosen q6) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election? CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q6 Tot Brown Mandel Voters Voters Voters 89% 90% 88% 10 10 12 -

Mind made up Might change DK/NA

7. Is your opinion of Sherrod Brown favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Favorable Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED Tot 48% 36 16 1 Rep 10% 69 20 1 Dem 82% 4 12 1 Ind 43% 41 14 2 Men 45% 41 13 1 Wom 50% 30 18 2

8. Is your opinion of Josh Mandel favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? ****** Tot 34% 42 23 1 TOTAL OHIO LIKELY VOTERS ****** Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 69% 5% 35% 39% 30% 11 68 40 39 44 19 25 23 22 24 1 1 2 2

Favorable Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED

9. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? Approve Disapprove DK/NA Tot 50% 47 4 Rep 7% 91 2 Dem 92% 6 2 Ind 40% 53 7 Men 44% 53 3 Wom 55% 42 4

10. Compared to past presidential elections, how would you describe your level of enthusiasm about voting in this year's presidential election; are you more enthusiastic than usual, less enthusiastic, or about the same as usual? More Less About the same DK/NA Tot 41% 12 46 1 Rep 52% 8 38 1 Dem 40% 9 51 Ind 35% 18 46 Men 42% 11 46 1 Wom 41% 13 46 -

11. (If already voted) Did you vote early by mail or absentee ballot, or did you vote at an early voting location? * OHIO LIKELY VOTERS WHO ALREADY VOTED * Tot Men Wom Mail/Absentee 75% 69% 79% Early voting location 25 30 21 DK/NA 1 12. Do you think the nation's economy is getting better, getting worse, or staying about the same? ****** Tot 37% 36 25 1 TOTAL OHIO LIKELY VOTERS ****** Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 6% 70% 30% 37% 38% 68 6 41 38 35 25 23 27 25 25 1 1 2 1 2

Better Worse The same DK/NA

13. Do you think Ohio's economy is getting better, getting worse, or staying about the same? Better Worse The same DK/NA Tot 46% 22 30 1 Rep 30% 35 33 2 Dem 65% 8 25 2 Ind 42% 26 31 1 Men 50% 20 29 1 Wom 43% 24 31 2

14. Would you say that Barack Obama cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not? ****** Tot 60% 37 3 TOTAL OHIO LIKELY VOTERS ****** Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 26% 94% 55% 58% 63% 71 5 42 39 35 3 1 3 3 2

Yes No DK/NA

15. Would you say that Mitt Romney cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not? Yes No DK/NA Tot 45% 50 5 Rep 88% 9 3 Dem 11% 86 3 Ind 46% 47 7 Men 51% 44 5 Wom 39% 56 5

16. Would you say that Barack Obama has strong leadership qualities or not? Yes No DK/NA Tot 58% 40 1 Rep 19% 80 1 Dem 93% 6 1 Ind 54% 45 2 Men 54% 45 2 Wom 62% 37 1

17. Would you say that Mitt Romney has strong leadership qualities or not? Yes No DK/NA Tot 64% 32 5 Rep 94% 4 2 Dem 36% 59 5 Ind 67% 26 7 Men 69% 26 5 Wom 59% 36 5

18. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on - the economy, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney? Obama Romney DK/NA Tot 48% 48 4 Rep 5% 94 1 Dem 89% 7 4 Ind 40% 53 7 Men 42% 55 3 Wom 54% 41 5

19. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on foreign policy, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney? Obama Romney DK/NA Tot 50% 43 7 Rep 10% 87 3 Dem 90% 6 5 Ind 42% 48 10 Men 46% 49 5 Wom 54% 38 8

20. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on taxes, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney? Obama Romney DK/NA Tot 51% 43 6 Rep 9% 88 4 Dem 90% 5 5 Ind 44% 47 8 Men 46% 50 4 Wom 55% 38 8

21. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on - the budget deficit, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney? ****** TOTAL OHIO LIKELY VOTERS ****** Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 43% 4% 83% 33% 36% 49% 51 95 11 59 59 44 6 1 6 9 5 7

Obama Romney DK/NA

22. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on helping the middle class, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney? Tot 54% 41 4 Rep 10% 86 4 Dem 94% 4 2 Ind 49% 44 7 Men 49% 47 4 Wom 59% 36 5

Obama Romney DK/NA

23. Which candidate do you think did the best job, or won, the second presidential debate Barack Obama or Mitt Romney? Obama Romney TIE (VOL) DIDN'T WATCH(VOL) DK/NA Tot 48% 27 12 11 3 Rep 11% 57 19 11 2 Dem 81% 4 4 9 2 Ind 43% 29 13 11 4 Men 46% 31 13 8 1 Wom 49% 25 10 13 4

24. Did you watch or listen to the second presidential debate between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney or not? Yes No DK/NA Tot 84% 15 Rep 85% 14 Dem 84% 15 Ind 85% 15 Men 87% 13 Wom 82% 18 -

25. Did the second presidential debate make you more likely to vote for Barack Obama, more likely to vote for Mitt Romney, or did it have no effect on your vote choice? Obama Romney No effect LESS LIKELY EITHER (VOL) ALREADY VOTED(VOL) DK/NA Tot 19% 14 63 1 4 Rep 2% 28 66 1 3 Dem 36% 2 58 3 Ind 14% 14 65 1 1 5 Men 15% 14 67 1 1 3 Wom 22% 13 59 1 5 -

26. Do you plan on watching or listening to the third presidential debate on Monday, October 22nd, or not? Yes No DK/NA Tot 85% 11 4 Rep 88% 10 2 Dem 83% 11 6 Ind 86% 11 3 Men 86% 11 3 Wom 84% 12 5

27. Who do you think will win the third presidential debate, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney? ****** Tot 40% 31 3 26 TOTAL OHIO LIKELY VOTERS ****** Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 7% 73% 32% 36% 43% 65 4 33 35 28 4 1 4 4 3 25 21 32 26 27

Obama Romney TIE (VOL) DK/NA

---------------------------------------------------------------------------Sample: 1,548 Likely Voters Margin of error: 3pts. PARTY IDENTIFICATION Republican Democrat Independent Other DK/NA – LIKELY VOTERS 26% 35 34 3 1