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POLLING

MEMORANDUM

FR: Fritz Wenzel, President, Wenzel Strategies RE: Survey of Likely Voters Statewide in Virginia
Wenzel Strategies is an opinion research company established in 2005 and based in Columbus, Ohio. It serves clients nationwide in politics, media, non-profit, corporate, and government. It conducted a survey of likely General Election voters statewide in Virginia regarding the November election. The poll was conducted Oct. 19-20, 2012, and included 1000 respondents. The survey carries a margin of error of +/- 3.07 percentage points. The Wenzel Strategies survey of likely General Election voters in Virginia shows that Republican George Allen holds a three-point lead over Democrat Timothy Kaine in the race for the open U.S. Senate seat there, 49% to 46%. Another 5% are undecided. In the race for President, Republican challenger Mitt Romney leads incumbent Democrat Barack Obama by a narrow two-point edge, 49% to 47% with 1% divided between three other candidates and 3% undecided. Both races are firming up substantially. In the race for the Senate, 92% said they were “firm in their choice,” while 95% said the same about their selection in the presidential race. The poll includes a partisan sample of 46% Democrat, 39% Republican, and 15% independent voters. Allen’s advantage in the Senate race is a reflection of his higher favorability rating among likely voters, as 58% said they hold a favorable opinion of the one-time senator who lost his seat six years ago, and just 38% said they have an unfavorable opinion of him. For Kaine, 49% have a favorable opinion while 48% hold a negative overall view of him. Allen has strong support from fellow Republicans, winning 90% of their backing, while Kaine is lagging in support from his fellow Democrats – he wins just 84% support from them. It is important to note that Allen wins 14% support among Democrats, a significant advantage over Kaine, who wins just 4% support from Republicans across the aisle. Among independent voters, Allen holds a 51% to 39% advantage. Kaine leads in northern Virginia and the Washington D.C. suburbs by a 55% to 42% margin, while Allen leads in south and southwestern Virginia by 11%. Allen also leads in central and southeastern Virginia, 55% to 39%, the survey shows. Allen leads by 11 points among men, while Kaine leads by four points among women. In the race for President, Romney is seen favorably by 58%, while 42% hold an unfavorable opinion of him. He is six points better in this area than Obama, who wins a favorable rating of 52% and an unfavorable rating of 48%. Like Allen in the Senate race, Romney is winning a significant amount of support from across the political aisle. He wins 16% of the Democratic Party vote, while Obama wins 9% among Republicans. And, like Allen, Romney holds a big lead – 53% to 37% - among independents in Virginia. Geographically, Obama leads by a narrow four-point margin in northern Virginia, while Romney leads downstate. Romney leads by 16% among men, while Obama leads by 11% among women. ###