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MEMORANDUM
TO:
Interested Parties
FROM:
Jefrey Pollock & James Delorey
RE:
New Hampshire 1st Congressional District Survey
DATE:
October 19, 2012
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SHEA-PORTER LEADS IN RACE FOR CONGRESS
A poll of likely 2012 General Election voters, conducted October 13-16, shows Carol
Shea-Porter leading Frank Guinta by three points, 46% to 43%, with Libertarian Brendan
Kelly drawing 6%. Just 5% of voters are undecided.
If the election for United States Congress were held today and the candidates were Carol
Shea-Porter, the Democrat, Frank Guinta, the Republican, and Brendan Kelly, the
Libertarian, for whom would you vote?
CAROL SHEA-PORTER .........................................................................................................................................................................
46%
FRANK GUINTA ......................................................................................................................................................................................
43%
BRENDAN KELLY ...................................................................................................................................................................................
6%
(Undecided/Refused) ...............................................................................................................................................................................
5%

Just 36% of voters approve of the job Guinta is doing as congressman. Over half
(51%) rate Guinta’s performance as only fair (28%) or poor (24%).

The partisan composition of the survey was 37% Independent, 36% Republican
and 27% Democratic.

METHODOLOGICAL NOTE
Global Strategy Group conducted telephone interviews with 401 likely 2012 General
Election voters in New Hampshire’s First Congressional District. Interviewing for the poll
was conducted October 13-16, using live interviewers. Special care was taken to ensure
that the geographic and demographic divisions of the actual electorate are properly
represented. The estimation error associated with a sample of 401 is +/-4.9% at the 95%
confidence interval. This means that in 95 of 100 cases, the results of this poll are within
plus or minus 4.9 points of the results that would have been obtained if all likely voters had
been interviewed.

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