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Currencies Daily Report

Tuesday| October 23, 2012

Content
Overview US Dollar Euro GBP JPY Economic Indicators
Overview:

Research Team
Fundamental Team Nalini Rao - Sr. Research Analyst Nalini.rao@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6135 Anish Vyas - Research Associate anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6104

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Currencies Daily Report


Tuesday| October 23, 2012 Market Highlights (% change)
Last Prev. day
0.6 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1

as on October 22, 2012 WoW


0.5 0.4 -0.6 -0.4 1.8 0.8

MoM
0.8 0.6 -1.6 -1.8 0.0 -3.1

YoY
13.2 12.0 13.0 15.8 -1.5 5.6

Highlights
For the current month FII inflows totaled at Rs. 11,247.40 crores. Indian Rupee appreciated 0.5 percent yesterday. Asian markets are trading on a mixed note on the back of slowing corporate earnings and as European leaders make efforts to contain the Euro zone debt crisis.

NIFTY SENSEX DJIA S&P FTSE KOSPI BOVESPA NIKKEI Nymex Crude (Nov12) - $/bbl Comex Gold (Dec12) - $/oz Comex Silver(Dec12) $/oz LME Copper (3 month) -$/tonne CRB Index (Industrial) G-Sec -10 yr @7.8% Yield

5717.2 18793.4 13345.89 1433.8 15866.8 1941.6

US Dollar Index
US Dollar Index swung between gains and losses and ended 0.1 percent higher due to rise in the risk aversion amongst the market participants and thereby increase in the demand for the low yielding currency that is US Dollar Index (DX). US equities ended on a flat note as worries of global growth has seen hitting the corporate sales amidst better earnings. Gains were witnessed Technology shares which kept led the markets to end on a flat note. The currency touched high of 79.76 and closed at 79.74 levels on Monday.

58700.3 9010.7 88.73 1725.10

-0.4 0.1 -1.5 0.1

-1.5 -0.1 -3.4 -0.6

-5.2 -0.6 -3.5 -2.1

6.2 3.8 1.5 5.5

3222.70

0.5

-1.5

-5.0

3.4

7944.00

-0.6

-2.2

-2.9

11.2

100.09

0.0

0.2

0.2

7.0

Dollar/INR
The Indian Rupee appreciated by 0.7 percent in the yesterdays trading session. The currency appreciated taking cues from rise in risk appetite in the global markets in the later part of the trade along with weakness in the DX. Additionally, upbeat domestic market sentiments also supported an upside in the currency. However, sharp upside in the currency was capped as result of dollar demand from oil importers. The currency touched a high of 53.435 in yesterdays trade and closed at 53.74 on Monday. For the current month FII inflows totaled at Rs. 11,247.40 crores till nd 22 October 2012. While year to date basis, net capital inflows stood nd at Rs. 93,578.20 crores till 22 October 2012.

Source: Reuters

US Dollar (% change)
Last Dollar Index US $ / INR (Spot) US $ / INR Oct12 Futures (NSE) US $ / INR Oct12 Futures (MCX-SX)
79.74 53.55 53.51 53.51

as on October 22, 2012 Prev. day


0.1 0.5 -0.88 -0.87

WoW
-0.1 -1.1 0.90 0.89

MoM
0.2 -0.2 0.04 0.05

YoY
4.1 -6.9 6.16 6.71

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart USD/INR

Outlook From the intra-day perspective, we expect rupee to appreciate due to proposed auction of Rs 5,385 crore (about $1 billion) of State Government Securities today (October23,2012) by the Reserve Bank of India on behalf of eight states in the country. This is expected to attract inflows. Additionally, mixed global market sentiments along with weakness in the DX are expected to support appreciation in the currency.

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Trend US Dollar/INR Oct12 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways

valid for October 23, 2012 Support 53.35/53.15 Resistance 53.85/54.2

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Currencies Daily Report


Tuesday| October 23, 2012

Euro/INR
Euro gained 0.3 percent on the back of optimism that efforts by Spains Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy to cut the deficit were supported by the public. However, strength in the DX restricted sharp gains in the currency. The currency touched a high of 1.3083 and closed at 1.3059 on Monday. Outlook In todays session we expect Euro to appreciate on the back of mixed global market sentiments along with weakness in the DX. Additionally favorable data from the region is expected to support upside in the currency. Technical Outlook
Trend Euro/INR Oct12 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways 69.65/69.35 70.3/70.7 valid for October 23, 2012 Support Resistance

Euro (% change)
Last Euro /$ (Spot) Euro / INR (Spot) Euro / INR Oct12 Futures (NSE) Euro / INR Oct12 Futures (MCX-SX)
1.3059 69.95 69.90

as on October 22, 2012 Prev. day


0.3 0.2 -0.71

WoW
0.9 -2.0 1.66

MoM
1.0 -1.2 0.72

YoY
-6.0 -1.0 0.85

69.9

-0.76

1.61

0.75

1.22

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Euro

GBP/INR
The Pound appreciated by 0.1 percent yesterday taking cues from upbeat global market sentiments. However, sharp upside in the currency was capped as a result of strength in the DX. The currency touched an intra-day high of 1.6052 and closed at 1.6012 on Monday. Outlook From the intra-day perspective, we expect Pound to appreciate on the back of rise in risk appetite in the global markets along with weakness in the DX. Additionally, expectations of favorable economic data from the country will also support an upside in the currency. Technical Outlook
Trend GBP/INR Oct 12 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways valid for October 23, 2012 Support 85.55/85.25 Resistance 86.1/86.5

Source: Telequote

GBP (% change)
Last $ / GBP (Spot) GBP / INR (Spot) GBP / INR Oct12 Futures (NSE) GBP / INR Oct12 Futures (MCX-SX)
1.6012 85.74 85.81

as on October 22, 2012

Prev. day
0.1 0.5 -0.94

WoW
-0.3 -0.7 0.78

MoM
-1.3 1.1 -1.32

YoY
0.4 -7.9 7.54

85.82

-0.88

0.83

-1.31

7.88

Source: Reuters

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Currencies Daily Report


Tuesday| October 23, 2012

JPY/INR
JPY (% change) The Japanese Yen depreciated by 0.8 percent yesterday on the back of rise in risk appetite in the global markets which led to decline in demand for the low yielding currency. It touched an intra-day low of 79.96 and closed at 79.94 on Monday. Outlook In todays session, we expect to depreciate on account of rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments along with expectation of stimulus measures to be announced by the government to boost the economy which will lead to decline in demand for the low yielding currency. Technical Outlook
Trend JPY/INR Oct 12 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways valid for October 23, 2012 Support 66.70/66.20 Resistance 67.40/67.90 Last JPY / $ (Spot) JPY / INR (Spot) JPY 100 / INR Oct12 Futures (NSE) JPY 100 / INR Oct12 Futures (MCX-SX)
79.94 0.6696 66.95

as on October 22, 2012 Prev day


0.8 1.3 -1.71

WoW
1.7 0.5 -0.60

MoM
2.7 2.4 -2.00

YoY
4.8 -2.5 2.10

66.93

-1.71

-0.63

-2.03

2.37

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart JPY

Source: Telequote

Economic Indicators to be released on October 23, 2012


Indicator BBA Mortgage Approvals Belgium NBB Business Climate BOE Gov King Speaks Country UK Euro UK Time (IST) 2:00pm 6:30pm 10:30pm Actual Forecast 30.9K -10.8 Previous 30.5K -11.6 Impact Medium Medium High

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