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Market Outlook

October 23, 2012

Dealers Diary

Domestic Indices

The Indian markets are expected to open flat with a positive bias following flattish
start to SGX Nifty and other Asian indices.
The U.S. markets on Monday ended in the green after a lackluster session that saw
losses for most of the day amid concerns over slowing corporate earnings growth.
The European markets were unable to hold on to early gains on Monday and
ended the session with modest losses as the markets were under pressure in the
afternoon due to the weak performance of the U.S. markets. Traders also had their
eyes on events in Europe, as European leaders continue to work towards a solution
to the region's debt crisis.
The Indian markets rose on Monday, lifted by upbeat earnings results, a stronger
rupee and a sharp fall in crude prices over the weekend on global growth worries.
However, global cues were mixed, limiting the upside to some extent. Looking
ahead, earnings news is likely to remain in focus throughout the week. Traders are
also likely to keep a close eye on the Federal Reserve, with the central bank due to
hold a two-day monetary policy meeting.

Markets Today

Chg (%)

(Pts)

(Close)

BSE Sensex

0.6

Nifty

0.6

32.9

5,717

(0.1)

(6.9)

6,665

SMALL CAP

0.3

21.9

7,192

BSE HC

1.1

80.8

7,601

BSE PSU

(0.0)

(1.1)

7,374

BANKEX

1.0

132.3 13,325

AUTO

(0.2)

(18.8) 10,231

METAL

(0.1)

MID CAP

111.1 18,793

(8.5) 10,343

OIL & GAS

0.7

61.7

8,499

BSE IT

0.8

47.7

,748

Chg (%)

(Pts)

(Close)

Global Indices

Dow Jones
NASDAQ
FTSE
Nikkei
Hang Seng

0.0

2.4 13,346

0.4

11.3

3,017

(0.2)

(13.2)

5,883

0.1

8.0

9,011

0.7

145.8 21,698

The trend deciding level for the day is 18,735 / 5,699 levels. If NIFTY trades above
this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally
up to 18,868 18,943 / 5,740 5,762 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below
18,735 / 5,699 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to
18,660 18,526 / 5,676 5,635 levels.

Straits Times

INFY

(1.7)

(0.8)

Indices
SENSEX
NIFTY

WIT

(2.4)

(0.2)

$8.2

IBN

(1.6)

(0.7)

$39.4

HDB

(0.5)

(0.2)

$36.9

S2
18,526
5,635

S1
18,660
5,676

PIVOT
18,735
5,699

R1
18,868
5,740

R2
18,943
5,762

News Analysis

DRL intends to make a recommended public offer for OctoPlus N.V


2QFY2013 Result Review: HDFC, L&T, Cairn India, Bank of Baroda, Idea,
Syndicate Bank, JK Lakshmi Cement
2QFY2013 Result Preview: Hero MotoCorp, Sterlite, Lupin, Yes Bank

Shanghai Com
Indian ADRs

Advances / Declines

(0.1)

(3.3)

3,046

0.2

4.5

2,133

Chg (%)

(Pts)

(Close)

$43.7

BSE

NSE

Advances

1,405

705

Declines

1,446

793

125

86

Unchanged

Refer detailed news analysis on the following page

Volumes (` cr)

Net Inflows (October 22, 2012)


` cr
FII
MFs

Purch
2,264
271

Sales
2,131
421

Net
134
(149)

MTD
17,239
(2,725)

YTD
58,009
(10,158)

FII Derivatives (October 22, 2012)


` cr
Index Futures
Stock Futures

Purch
4,786
8,995

Sales
4,550
8,700

Net
236
295

Open Interest
17,987
32,403

Gainers / Losers
Gainers
Company

Losers

Price (`)

chg (%)

Company

Price (`)

Emami-$

563

6.4

Exide Inds

143

(3.9)

JPPOWER

40

5.6

Coromandel Intl

280

(2.6)

130

3.9

TTK Prestige

3,155

(2.5)

ING Vysya Bank

465

3.9

GMR Infra

22

(2.4)

Indiabulls Fin

238

3.6

Voltas

115

(2.4)

Adani Ports

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chg (%)

BSE

1,817

NSE

9,293

Market Outlook
October 23, 2012

DRL intends to make a recommended public offer for OctoPlus N.V


Dr. Reddys Laboratories Limited (Dr. Reddys), together with its subsidiaries,
announces the intended public offer to acquire the issued and outstanding shares
of OctoPlus N.V. (OctoPlus), a service based specialty pharmaceutical company,
for an offer price of 27.39 mn (cum dividend) in cash, representing 100% of the
issued and outstanding ordinary shares. The offer price represents a premium of
30% over the closing price of OctoPlus as on October 19, 2012. Dr. Reddys
currently holds an irrevocable commitment from shareholders representing over
50% of OctoPluss issued and outstanding shares.
This deal will help expand the expertise and scientific capabilities of Dr. Reddy's.
OctoPlus develops formulations for injectables and proprietary drug delivery
technologies, and has a fee-for-service business. For the first six months of 2012, it
reported a loss of 5.8 mn on revenue of 4.8 mn. While the company is not
profitable, the company is looking at the acquisition from long term perspective, as
the acquisition will globalize its R & D efforts, along with the ramp up of its
technology capabilities in drug delivery.
As, the acquisition does not change our numbers significantly, we maintain our
numbers and target on the stock. We recommend an Accumulate on the stock.

Result Review
HDFC (CMP: 750/ TP: -/ Upside: -)
HDFC reported a healthy growth of 17.8% yoy at the net interest income level.
Consequently, the growth in PAT came in at a healthy 18.6% yoy. The asset quality
continued to be strong with gross NPA ratio at 0.77%, lower than the 0.82%
reported in 2QFY2012. The loan book of the company continued to grow at a
strong pace of 22.2% yoy, with loans to individuals growing at 23.8% yoy. HDFC
has been incrementally growing its individual loan book much faster than its
corporate book over the last 6 months in order to improve its margins and noninterest income such as processing fees. Including loans sold, around 80% loans
over the last 6 months have been disbursed to the individual segment. On account
of high valuations and significant premium to the Sensex, we recommend Neutral
on the stock.
Y/E
March

Op. Inc
(` cr)

NIM
(%)

PAT
(` cr)

EPS
(`)

ABV
(%)

ROA
(x)

ROE
(x)

P/E
(x)

P/ABV
(x)

FY2013
FY2014

7,340
8,805

3.5
3.5

4,828
5,792

31.5
37.8

157.7
176.9

1.0
1.0

34.8
32.2

23.8
19.8

4.8
4.2

L&T (CMP: `1,668/TP: Under review /Upside: -)


Larsen and Toubro (L&T) posted a good set of numbers for 2QFY2013, which
were above our and the streets expectations on both, the revenue and the
profitability fronts. The top-line stood at `13,195cr, registering a growth of 17.3%
yoy for the quarter, higher than our estimate of `12,634cr. This was mainly driven
by pick up in execution in the engineering and construction (E&C) segment. On the
EBITDA front, the company reported an EBITDA of `1,406cr indicating a growth of
19.8% yoy. The EBITDA margin came in at 10.7%, an increase of 30bp yoy, and

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Market Outlook
October 23, 2012

was below our estimate of 11.4%. On the bottom-line front, L&T reported a growth
of 42.6% yoy to `1,138cr against our estimate of `891cr owing to pick up in
execution and higher exceptional item arising out of divestment gains.
As of 2QFY2013, L&Ts order backlog stands at `1,58,528cr a growth of 11.5%
yoy. The company has secured orders worth `20,967cr and `40,561cr in
2QFY2013 and 1HFY2013 respectively.
For FY2013, the management has reiterated its guidance of 15-20% growth on
both - revenue and order inflow. Given the healthy order inflow in 1HFY2012 we
believe the company would meet its guidance, both on order inflows and the
revenue front.
We believe L&T is best placed to benefit from the gradual recovery in the capex
cycle, given its diverse exposure to sectors, strong balance sheet and cash flow
generation as compared to peers. We continue to remain positive on L&T;
however owing to surge in its stock price we recommend an Accumulate rating
while our target price is under review.
Y/E
March
FY2013
FY2014

Sales
(` cr)

OPM
(%)

PAT
(` cr)

EPS
(`)

ROE
(%)

P/E
(x)

P/BV
(x)

EV/EBITDA
(x)

EV/Sales
(x)

61,031
69,620

11.9
11.5

4,302
4,621

70.2
75.4

15.9
15.1

23.8
22.1

3.6
3.1

15.6
14.1

1.9
1.6

Bank of Baroda- (CMP: `785, TP: `864, Upside: 10%)


Bank of Baroda reported moderate 11.6% yoy growth in its net profits to
`1,301cr during 2QFY2013. Key highlight of the result was the pressure
witnessed on the asset quality front, with 10.5% and 29.3% sequential increase
in both gross and net NPA levels, respectively.
Advances for the bank grew by healthy pace of 22.2% yoy, while deposits
were up by robust 24.0% yoy. CASA ratio for the bank, both global and
domestic dipped sequentially by 28bp and 48bp, respectively to 25.8% and
31.7%. On the non-interest income front, growth was moderate at 12.8% yoy
largely aided by trading gains. Annualized slippages during the quarter came
in at 1.97% as against 1.8% in 1QFY2013 and 1.02% in 2QFY2012. The
bank witnessed 142.5% yoy increase in NPA provisioning (largely due to
higher write-offs). PCR dipped by 330bp qoq and 625bp yoy to 75.7%. The
bank restructured loans worth `993cr during the quarter taking its outstanding
domestic restructured book to `16,668cr (5.7% of net advances). At the CMP
the stock is trading at 0.9x FY2014 ABV. We maintain our accumulate
recommendation on the stock with a target price of `864.
Y/E
March

Op. Inc

NIM

PAT

EPS

ABV

(`)

ROA

ROE

P/E

P/ABV

(` cr)

(%)

(` cr)

(%)

(x)

(x)

(x)

(x)

FY2013E

15,473

2.6

4,754

115.3 756.0

1.0

16.2

6.9

1.0

FY2014E

18,142

2.6

5,748

139.4 864.0

1.0

17.2

5.6

0.9

Idea (CMP: `81 / TP: - / Upside: -)


Idea Cellular (Idea) reported its 2QFY2013, which were in-line with our estimates
on the revenue as well as profitability front. The revenues came in at `5,544cr,

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Market Outlook
October 23, 2012

down 3.4% qoq, because of 5.3% qoq decline in MOU to 359min. Overall
network traffic declined by 4.0% qoq. This was due to decline in overall subscriber
base of Idea to 115.4mn from 117.2mn in 1QFY2013. ARPM remained flat qoq
at `0.41/month while APRU declined by 5.1% qoq to `148/month. EBITDA margin
increased by 70bp qoq to 26.8%. PAT came in at `240cr, up 2.5% qoq. The
company remain surrounded by regulatory uncertainties related to spectrum and
license fee payments. We maintain Neutral view on the stock.
Y/E
March

Sales

OPM

PAT

EPS

ROE

P/E

P/BV

EV/EBITDA

EV/Sales

(` cr)

(%)

(` cr)

(`)

(%)

(x)

(x)

(x)

(x)

FY2013E

22,582

26.4

1,097

3.3

7.8

24.4

1.9

6.1

1.6

FY2014E

24,684

26.9

1,559

4.7

9.9

17.2

1.7

5.3

1.4

Syndicate Bank- (CMP: `123/ TP: - / Upside: -)


For 2QFY2013, Syndicate Bank reported disappointing operating performance,
with 5.4% yoy decline in its operating profits to `843cr. However tax write-back of
`100cr as against tax expense of `61cr in 2QFY2012 aided the company to post
earnings growth of 36.6% yoy to `463cr.
On the NII front, the performance was subdued with 5.9% yoy growth. Growth in
non-interest income was moderate at 10.5% yoy to `270cr. On the asset quality
front, the bank witnessed stability with sequential increase in Gross NPA limited to
3.3%, while net NPA declined by 1.7% qoq. Advances for the bank grew by 12.7%
yoy, while deposits were up by 10.5% yoy. At the CMP the stock is trading at 0.7x
FY2014 ABV. We maintain our neutral recommendation on the stock.
Y/E

Op. Inc

NIM

PAT

EPS

ABV

ROA

ROE

P/E

P/ABV

(` cr)

(%)

(` cr)

(`)

(%)

(x)

(x)

(x)

(x)

FY2013E

6,722

2.9

1,461

24.3 152.0

0.7

17.0

4.7

0.7

FY2014E

7,719

3.0

1,640

27.2 172.8

0.7

16.8

4.2

0.7

March

JK Lakshmi Cement (CMP: `125/TP:-/Upside:-)


JK Lakshmi Cement (JK Lakshmi) posted a 38.8% yoy improvement in topline,
which was ahead of our estimates. The growth in topline was led by higher
realization as management indicated only a 7-8% yoy growth in volumes. OPM
surged by 1,135bp on a yoy basis and stood at 23% due to the strong
performance on the realization front. Robust operating performance resulted in the
bottomline expanding by multiple folds to `51cr (vs. 6.5cr in 2QFY2012).
Bottomline was also boosted by ~`9cr of recovery of old dues which were earlier
written off. We have a neutral rating on the stock.
Y/E

Sales

OPM

PAT

EPS

RoE

P/E

P/BV

EV/EBITDA

EV/tonne*

March

(` cr)

(%)

(` cr)

(`)

(%)

(x)

(x)

(x)

US ($)

FY2013E

1,964

19.5

177

16.3

14.7

7.7

1.1

4.3

FY2014E

2,278

20.4

194

17.8

14.6

7.0

1.0

5.7

53

Note:* computed on TTM basis

Cairn India (CMP: `338, TP: `380, Upside: 12%)


Cairn India announced better-than-expected 2QFY2013 results. The companys
top line increased by 67.5% yoy to `4,443cr (in line with our expectation of

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Market Outlook
October 23, 2012

`4,418cr) led by higher crude oil sales volumes. The companys gross production
averaged 207,245boepd (+21.9% yoy) during the quarter. However, gross crude
oil realization decreased by 4.6% yoy to US$98.1/bbl (although in rupee terms
realizations were higher). Operating profit grew by 64.0% yoy to `3,452cr,
although operating margin contracted by 142bp yoy to 77.7% during the quarter.
The company recorded an exceptional forex loss of `786cr on account of forex
fluctuation during 2QFY2013. Excluding this exceptional gain, adjusted net profit
grew by 1,239.7% yoy to `3,108cr (above our estimate of `2,807cr). Reported net
profit grew by 204.3% yoy to `2,322cr. We maintain our Accumulate rating on the
stock with a target price of `380.
Y/E

Sales

OPM

PAT

EPS

ROE

P/E

P/BV

EV/EBITDA

EV/Sales

March

(` cr)

(%)

(` cr)

(`)

(%)

(x)

(x)

(x)

(x)

FY2013E

16,605

75.4

10,875

57.02

20.2

5.9

1.1

3.8

2.9

FY2014E

17,258

71.7

10,477

54.93

16.3

6.2

0.9

3.2

2.3

Result Preview
Hero MotoCorp (CMP: `1,831/ TP: `2,077/ Upside: 13%)
Hero MotoCorp (HMCL) is slated to announce its 2QFY2013 results today. We
expect the companys top-line to post a decline of 11.5% yoy (17.4% qoq) to
`5,160cr primarily on account of a 13.7% yoy (18.7% qoq) decline in total
volumes. The poor volume performance can be attributed to weak demand in
domestic markets coupled with rising inventory at the dealer end. We expect the
operating margin (adjusted for change in accounting for royalty payments) to
contract 125bp yoy (50bp qoq) to 11% on account of adverse product-mix and
reduced operating leverage benefits. As a result, we expect the bottom-line
(adjusted) to post a 23.5% yoy decline to `462cr. At `1,831, the stock is trading at
13.7x its FY2014E earnings. Currently, we have an Accumulate rating on the stock
with a target price of `2,077.
Y/E
March

Sales OPM
(` cr)

(%)

PAT
(` cr)

EPS ROE
(`)

(%)

P/E P/BV

EV/EBITDA

EV/Sales

(x)

(x)

(x)

(x)

FY2013E

24,941 15.0

2,447 122.5 49.6 14.9

6.6

7.9

1.1

FY2014E

28,706 15.5

2675.4 134.0 42.2 13.7

5.2

6.4

0.9

Sterlite Industries (CMP: `99/ TP: - / Upside: -)


Sterlite Industries is slated to announce its 2QFY2013 results today. The top-line is
expected to grow by 9.7% yoy to `11,121cr. However, the EBITDA margin is
expected to contract by 477bp yoy to 19.7% due to decrease in realizations and
increase in prices of key inputs. The bottom-line is expected to increase by 26.4%
yoy to `1,299cr. We maintain our Neutral view on the stock.

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Y/E

Sales OPM

March

(` cr)

(%)

FY2013E

41,680

FY2014E

45,382

PAT

EPS

(` cr)

(`)

ROE P/E P/BV

EV/EBITDA

EV/Sales

(x)

(x)

(x)

(x)

24.2

5,464 16.3 11.3 6.1

0.7

3.2

0.8

23.2

5,687 16.9 10.7 5.9

0.6

3.0

0.7

(%)

Market Outlook
October 23, 2012

Lupin (CMP: `570/ TP: `647/ Upside: 14%)


For 2QFY2013, Lupin is expected to register a revenue growth of 18.2% to end the
period at `2,058cr vs `1,742cr in 2QFY2012. OPMs are expected to decline by
234bps during the period, which along with higher interest expenditure would limit
the net profit growth to 1.3% yoy. We expect the company to post a net profit of
`270cr vs `267cr (in 2QFY2013). We maintain our Accumulate rating on the stock
with a target price of `647.
Y/E

Sales OPM

March

(` cr)

(%)

FY2013E

8,426

FY2014E

10,082

PAT

EPS

(` cr)

(`)

ROE P/E P/BV

EV/EBITDA

EV/Sales

(x)

(x)

(x)

(x)

19.7

1,167 26.1 25.821.8

5.1

16.0

3.2

20.0

1,388 31.1 24.718.4

4.1

12.9

2.6

(%)

Yes Bank- (CMP: `387 / TP: `452 / Upside: 16.7%)


Yes Bank is slated to announce its 2QFY2013 results today. We expect the bank to
report a strong net interest income (NII) growth of 34.6% yoy to `519cr. The noninterest income is expected to increase by 25.5% yoy to `269cr. The operating
expenses of the bank are expected to be higher by 46.6% yoy to `313cr. The net
profit is expected to increase by 22.6% yoy to `288cr. At the current market price,
the stock trades at a valuation of 2.0x FY2014E ABV. We maintain our Buy
recommendation on the stock with a target price of `452.
Y/E

Op. Inc

NIM

PAT

EPS

ABV

ROA

ROE

P/E

P/ABV

(` cr)

(%)

(` cr)

(`)

(%)

(x)

(x)

(x)

(x)

FY2013E

3,270

2.8

1,197

33.9 161.2

1.5

23.1

11.2

2.4

FY2014E

4,253

3.0

1,491

42.2 196.4

1.5

23.6

9.0

1.9

March

Quarterly Bloomberg Brokers Consensus Estimate


Hero Moto Corp (23/10/2012)
Particulars (` cr)
Net sales

2QFY13E

2QFY12

y-o-y (%)

1QFY13

q-o-q (%)

5,104

5,784

(12)

6,208

(18)

EBITDA

661

919

(28)

937

(29)

EBITDA margin (%)

13.0

15.9

Net profit

445

604

(26)

615

(28)

2QFY13E

2QFY12

y-o-y (%)

1QFY13

q-o-q (%)

2,199

1,742

26

2,219

(1)

EBITDA

445

404

10

458

(3)

EBITDA margin (%)

20.2

23.2

Net profit

284

218

15.1

Lupin Consolidated (23/10/2012)


Particulars (` cr)
Net sales

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20.6
30

285

(0)

Market Outlook
October 23, 2012

Sterlite Industries Consolidated (23/10/2012)


Particulars (` cr)

2QFY13E

2QFY12

y-o-y (%)

1QFY13

q-o-q (%)

10,431

10,134

10,591

(2)

2,366

2,482

(5)

2,308

22.7

24.5

1,214

1,500

Net sales
EBITDA
EBITDA margin (%)
Net profit

21.8
(19)

1,779

(32)

United Phosphorous Consolidated (23/10/2012)


Particulars (` cr)

2QFY13E

2QFY12

y-o-y (%)

1QFY13

q-o-q (%)

2,032

1,721

18

2,180

(7)

EBITDA

353

325

386

(9)

EBITDA margin (%)

17.4

18.9

Net profit

159

43

266

172

(8)

2QFY13E

2QFY12

y-o-y (%)

1QFY13

q-o-q (%)

297

235

26

290

Net sales

17.7

Yes Bank Ltd (23/10/2012)


Particulars (` cr)
Net profit

Asian Paints Consolidated (25/10/2012)


Particulars (` cr)

2QFY13E

2QFY12

y-o-y (%)

1QFY13

q-o-q (%)

2,565

2,251

14

2,539

21

447

(12)

Net sales
EBITDA

392

323

EBITDA margin (%)

15.3

14.3

Net profit

252

218

16

299

(16)

2QFY13E

2QFY12

y-o-y (%)

1QFY13

q-o-q (%)

Net sales

9,548

7,307

31

9,248

EBITDA

1,133

874

30

1,109

EBITDA margin (%)

11.9

12.0

Net profit

830

737

17.6

Mahindra & Mahindra (25/10/2012)


Particulars (` cr)

12.0
13

726

14

Kotak Mahindra Bank Consolidated (25/10/2012)


Particulars (` cr)

2QFY13E

2QFY12

y-o-y (%)

1QFY13

q-o-q (%)

500

446

12

452

11

Net profit

Economic and Political News

Odisha achieves 84% electrification target by September


Karnataka's IT/ITeS sector exempted from Industrial Employment Act till 2013
Milk output may touch new high of 135mn tonne next year

Corporate News

L&T Finance Holdings buys FamilyCredit for `120cr


Suzlon Group enters Romanian wind energy market
Vedanta Aluminium resumes Odisha refinery at reduced capacity
Dr Reddy's to acquire OctoPlus NV for EUR27.4mn
Source: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Financial Express, Mint

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Market Outlook
October 23, 2012

Result Calendar
Date

Company

October 23, 2012

Hero Motocorp, Sterlite Inds, Lupin, Yes Bank, United Phosphorus, Bank of Maharashtra

October 24, 2012


October 25, 2012

Adani Enterp., M&M, Kotak Mah. Bank, Asian Paints, Nalco, Oriental Bank, Ipca labs, Bajaj Electrical, KPIT Cummins

October 26, 2012

NTPC, ICICI Bank, HUL, GAIL, Punjab Natl.Bank, Sesa Goa, IDFC, Dabur India, IOB, United Bank, Hind. Const.

October 27, 2012

IDBI Bank, Sarda Energy, Siyaram Silk Mills

October 28, 2012

JSW Steel

October 29, 2012

October 31, 2012

BHEL, Bank of India, Colgate, Styrolution


Maruti, Dr Reddy's, Grasim Inds, Shriram Trans., Mahindra Satyam, Glenmark Pharma., IRB Infra, Thermax, Taj GVK,
PVR
J & K Bank, Power Grid Corpn, NHPC, Titan Inds., LIC Housing Fin., Bharat Forge, Tata Global, Aventis, TVS Motor

November 01, 2012

Hexaware, BGR Energy , Jyothy Laboratories

November 02, 2012

Wipro, Rural Elec.Corp., Union Bank, Marico, Apollo Tyres, Indoco Remedies, Dishman Pharma

November 03, 2012

Godrej Consumer, Divi's Lab.

October 30, 2012

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

Global economic events release calendar


Date

Country

Event Description

October 23, 2012

Euro Zone

October 24, 2012

Germany

Euro-Zone Consumer
Confidence
PMI Services

Germany

PMI Manufacturing

US

New home sales

US
October 25, 2012

Unit

Period

Bloomberg Data
Last Reported

Estimated

Value

Oct A

(25.90)

(25.90)

Value

Oct A

49.70

50.00

Value

Oct A

47.40

48.00

Thousands

Sep

373.00

385.00

FOMC rate decision

Oct 24

0.25

0.25

US

Initial Jobless claims

Thousands

Oct 20

388.00

370.00

UK

GDP (YoY)

% Change

3Q A

(0.50)

(0.50)

October 26, 2012

US

GDP Qoq (Annualised)

3Q A

1.30

1.80

October 30, 2012

US

Consumer Confidence

Oct

70.30

73.00

India

RBI Repo rate

% Change
S.A./
1985=100
%

Oct 30

8.00

8.00

India

RBI Cash Reserve ratio

Oct 30

4.50

4.25

India

RBI Reverse Repo rate

Oct 30

7.00

7.00

October 31, 2012

Germany

Unemployment change (000's)

Thousands

Oct

9.00

--

November 01, 2012

UK

PMI Manufacturing

Value

Oct

48.40

--

China

PMI Manufacturing

Value

Oct

49.80

--

US

Change in Nonfarm payrolls

Thousands

Oct

114.00

120.00

November 02, 2012

US

Unnemployment rate

November 06, 2012

UK

Industrial Production (YoY)

November 08, 2012

UK

BOE Announces rates

Euro Zone

ECB announces interest rates

China
China

November 09, 2012

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

www.angelbroking.com

Oct

7.80

7.90

% Change

Sep

(1.20)

--

% Ratio

Nov 8

0.50

0.50

Nov 8

0.75

--

Industrial Production (YoY)

% Change

Oct

9.20

--

Consumer Price Index (YoY)

% Change

Oct

1.90

--

Market Strategy
October 23, 2012

Macro watch
Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends

Exhibit 2: IIP trends

(%)

(%)

10.0

8.0

9.2

9.0

8.5

9.0

8.2

7.5

8.0

6.0
8.0

7.6

6.0
6.7

7.0

6.1

5.7

5.3 5.5

5.0

(%)

Aug-12

Jul-12

Jun-12

May-12

Apr-12

Mar-12

Feb-12

(2.8)

(4.0)

(1.8)

(6.0)

(5.0)

Mfg. PMI

60.0

Services PMI

58.0

9.5
7.7

8.0

(0.2)

Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI

12.0
9.9

(1.3)

Source: MOSPI, Angel Research

Exhibit 3: Monthly WPI inflation trends

10.0

Jan-12

Dec-11

Nov-11

1QFY13

4QFY12

3QFY12

2QFY12

1QFY12

4QFY11

3QFY11

2QFY11

1QFY11

4QFY10

3QFY10

2QFY10

1QFY10

Source: CSO, Angel Research

Oct-11

(2.0)

4QFY09

1.0

3.5

3.0

6.9

7.4

7.7

7.5

7.6

7.6

7.5

7.6

7.8

56.0

Source: MOSPI, Angel Research

Sep-12

Aug-12

Jul-12

Jun-12

May-12

Apr-12

Mar-12

Feb-12

Jan-12

Dec-11

Nov-11

Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion

Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends


(%)

Sep-11

Sep-12

Aug-12

Jul-12

Jun-12

May-12

Apr-12

Mar-12

Feb-12

48.0

Jan-12

50.0

0.0

Dec-11

2.0

Nov-11

52.0

Oct-11

4.0

Oct-11

54.0

6.0

Exhibit 6: Key policy rates

60.0

(%)
9.00

45.0

8.00

30.0

7.00

Exports yoy growth

Imports yoy growth

Repo rate

Reverse Repo rate

CRR
8.00
7.00

6.00
4.50

5.00

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

www.angelbroking.com

Source: RBI, Angel Research

Aug-12

Jul-12

Jun-12

May-12

Apr-12

Mar-12

Feb-12

Jan-12

Dec-11

Nov-11

Jul-12

Jun-12

May-12

Apr-12

Mar-12

Feb-12

4.00

Sep-11

(30.0)

Jan-12

Dec-11

Nov-11

Oct-11

Sep-11

Aug-11

0.0

Sep-12

15.0

(15.0)

2.5

2.7

2.5

2.0

Oct-11

4.0

4.3
2.7

Sep-11

6.0

4.0

Market Outlook
October 23, 2012

Stock Watch
Company Name

Reco

CMP

Target

Mkt Cap

Sales ( cr )

OPM(%)

EPS ( )

( )

Price ( )

( cr )

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

PER(x)

P/BV(x)

RoE(%)

EV/Sales(x)

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

Agri / Agri Chemical


Rallis

Neutral

136

2,653

1,466

1,686

14.8

14.8

7.0

8.1

19.5

16.8

4.1

3.5

22.6

22.5

1.9

1.6

United Phosphorus

Buy

119

170

5,476

8,421

9,263

16.5

16.5

15.0

17.0

7.9

7.0

1.2

1.0

15.6

15.5

0.8

0.7

Amara Raja Batteries

Neutral

238

4,071

2,844

3,275

15.4

15.6

15.9

18.8

15.0

12.7

3.9

3.1

28.9

26.9

1.4

1.2

Apollo Tyres

Buy

85

99

4,262

13,412

15,041

11.3

11.0

12.1

14.2

7.0

6.0

1.3

1.1

19.6

19.2

0.5

0.4

Ashok Leyland

Buy

23

30

6,226

14,920

16,850

9.0

9.3

2.2

2.8

10.8

8.5

2.0

1.7

13.3

15.6

0.5

0.4

Automotive Axle#

Accumulate

396

430

598

993

1,140

11.6

11.5

36.9

43.0

10.7

9.2

2.1

1.8

21.2

21.3

0.7

0.5

Bajaj Auto

Neutral

1,770

51,224

21,121

23,642

18.4

18.5

108.7

122.6

16.3

14.4

6.8

5.4

46.2

41.6

2.1

1.8

Bharat Forge

Buy

304

351

7,076

7,004

7,985

16.2

16.4

20.3

25.1

15.0

12.1

2.8

2.3

20.0

20.9

1.2

1.0

Bosch India*

Neutral

8,851

27,790

8,793

10,294

17.4

18.5

348.3

435.8

25.4

20.3

4.9

4.1

19.4

20.1

2.8

2.3

CEAT

Buy

117

164

400

4,989

5,634

8.7

8.5

32.7

41.1

3.6

2.8

0.5

0.5

15.8

16.9

0.3

0.2

Exide Industries

Neutral

148

12,610

6,229

7,200

14.8

15.8

7.2

9.0

20.7

16.6

3.6

3.1

18.5

19.9

1.7

1.4

FAG Bearings*

Neutral

1,822

3,028

1,505

1,768

17.5

18.0

111.2

132.7

16.4

13.7

3.4

2.8

22.8

22.2

1.8

1.4

Hero Motocorp

Accumulate

1,849

2,077

36,930

24,941

28,706

15.0

15.5

122.5

134.0

15.1

13.8

6.6

5.2

49.6

42.2

1.2

1.0

JK Tyre

Buy

108

135

444

7,517

8,329

6.1

6.3

26.2

38.5

4.1

2.8

0.5

0.5

13.4

17.2

0.3

0.3

Auto & Auto Ancillary

Mahindra and Mahindra Accumulate

823

944

50,555

37,434

42,860

11.6

11.5

50.4

56.3

16.4

14.6

3.4

2.9

22.6

21.5

1.1

0.9

1,369

39,556

41,796

49,350

7.6

8.6

66.6

92.6

20.6

14.8

2.4

2.1

12.0

14.8

0.7

0.6

150

159

8,839

24,285

27,317

6.7

7.2

8.1

10.6

18.7

14.2

3.9

3.2

22.9

24.7

0.5

0.5

Buy

29

34

175

1,230

1,378

8.8

8.6

4.5

5.7

6.5

5.1

0.6

0.6

9.8

11.8

0.4

0.3

Tata Motors

Buy

269

316

71,665 195,096 219,428

12.8

13.0

39.0

44.9

6.9

6.0

2.0

1.5

32.6

28.8

0.4

0.4

TVS Motor

Accumulate

43

49

2,029

7,611

8,443

7.9

7.9

4.7

5.4

9.1

7.9

1.5

1.3

17.9

18.1

0.2

0.2

Maruti

Neutral

Motherson Sumi

Accumulate

Subros

Capital Goods
ABB*

Sell

780

593

16,526

8,760

10,023

6.2

8.7

14.5

24.7

54.0

31.6

5.9

5.1

11.6

17.6

1.9

1.6

BGR Energy

Neutral

273

1,972

3,669

4,561

11.0

11.0

24.7

29.6

11.1

9.2

1.6

1.5

15.3

16.7

1.1

1.0

BHEL

Neutral

242

59,256

47,801

43,757

19.0

18.8

25.3

22.8

9.6

10.6

2.9

2.5

34.3

25.3

1.1

1.2

Blue Star

Buy

214

249

1,924

2,763

2,948

3.2

5.6

3.5

9.1

61.9

23.5

4.6

4.0

7.7

18.4

0.8

0.7

Crompton Greaves

Accumulate

130

141

8,333

12,691

14,126

7.4

8.9

7.0

9.7

18.6

13.4

2.1

1.9

11.9

15.0

0.7

0.6

Jyoti Structures

Accumulate

48

54

392

2,622

2,744

10.7

10.5

9.6

12.2

5.0

3.9

0.5

0.5

10.8

12.3

0.4

0.3

KEC International

Accumulate

71

78

1,814

6,858

7,431

7.1

7.5

8.3

9.8

8.5

7.2

1.4

1.2

25.1

24.0

0.4

0.4

LMW

Neutral

2,040

2,298

2,369

2,727

11.7

11.7

143.4

166.0

14.2

12.3

2.4

2.2

17.4

18.4

0.5

0.4

Thermax

Neutral

575

6,849

5,514

5,559

8.9

10.2

26.9

30.3

21.4

19.0

3.7

3.2

18.4

18.2

1.1

1.1

www.angelbroking.com

Market Outlook
October 23, 2012

Stock Watch
Company Name

Reco

CMP

Target

Mkt Cap

Sales ( cr )

OPM(%)

EPS ( )

PER(x)

P/BV(x)

RoE(%)

EV/Sales(x)

( )

Price ( )

( cr )

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

Cement
ACC

Neutral

1,408

26,438

11,085

12,415

21.6

21.4

79.4

83.1

17.7

17.0

3.4

3.1

20.1

19.2

2.1

1.8

Ambuja Cements

Neutral

206

31,802

10,272

11,884

26.4

26.1

11.5

12.9

18.0

16.0

4.0

3.5

20.8

21.1

2.7

2.2

India Cements

Neutral

98

3,021

4,354

4,929

18.6

18.7

9.8

12.3

10.0

8.0

0.8

0.8

8.6

10.2

1.2

1.0

J K Lakshmi Cements

Neutral

116

1,415

1,964

2,278

19.5

20.4

16.3

17.9

7.1

6.5

1.0

0.9

14.7

14.6

0.9

1.2

Madras Cements

Neutral

187

4,455

3,608

3,928

27.6

27.0

15.7

18.3

11.9

10.3

1.9

1.6

16.9

17.0

1.9

1.6

Shree Cements^

Neutral

4,206

14,654

5,701

6,210

29.7

28.1

240.7

260.7

17.5

16.1

4.2

3.5

27.1

23.6

2.0

1.6

UltraTech Cement

Neutral

2,010

55,082

20,913

23,530

21.3

22.7

93.2

110.5

21.6

18.2

3.7

3.2

18.4

18.7

2.6

2.3

220

304

1,158

2,034

2,315

22.4

22.4

27.1

31.7

8.1

6.9

1.0

0.9

13.1

13.4

1.8

2.1

Construction
Ashoka Buildcon

Buy

Consolidated Co

Neutral

14

259

2,262

2,522

6.7

7.5

1.5

2.7

9.4

5.3

0.4

0.4

4.4

7.5

0.4

0.4

Hind. Const.

Neutral

17

1,049

4,239

4,522

9.9

11.2

(2.3)

(1.0)

(7.7)

(17.9)

1.0

1.1

(11.4)

(5.6)

1.2

1.2

IRB Infra

Accumulate

146

166

4,856

3,964

4,582

42.3

40.2

15.7

16.9

9.3

8.6

1.5

1.3

16.6

15.8

2.8

2.6

ITNL

Buy

184

232

3,581

6,840

7,767

26.4

26.1

24.4

30.3

7.5

6.1

1.1

1.0

16.0

16.2

2.7

2.8

IVRCL Infra

Accumulate

45

51

1,375

5,510

6,722

8.8

9.0

2.5

4.6

17.7

9.8

0.6

0.6

3.4

5.8

0.7

0.7

Jaiprakash Asso.

Neutral

93

19,872

15,259

17,502

25.7

24.7

4.0

4.8

23.3

19.6

1.8

1.7

8.5

9.3

2.6

2.3

Larsen & Toubro

Accumulate

1,633

1,721

100,217

60,474

69,091

12.1

11.5

79.7

85.4

20.5

19.1

3.5

3.0

16.3

15.1

1.8

1.6

Madhucon Proj

Buy

34

56

249

2,206

2,502

10.7

10.7

4.6

4.7

7.3

7.2

0.4

0.4

5.2

5.0

0.7

0.7

Nagarjuna Const.

Reduce

48

45

1,225

5,804

6,513

8.0

8.6

3.0

3.5

15.7

13.7

0.5

0.5

3.2

3.6

0.6

0.7

Patel Engg.

Neutral

80

559

3,609

3,836

13.1

13.1

14.0

14.6

5.7

5.5

0.4

0.3

6.3

6.1

1.0

1.0

Punj Lloyd

Neutral

52

1,719

11,892

13,116

8.9

8.9

1.7

3.1

30.5

16.8

0.6

0.6

1.9

3.4

0.6

0.5

Sadbhav Engg.

Buy

139

182

2,096

2,506

3,147

10.3

10.7

7.5

10.4

18.6

13.4

2.3

2.0

13.5

16.0

1.0

0.8

Simplex Infra

Buy

218

265

1,080

6,732

7,837

8.1

8.4

23.4

29.4

9.3

7.4

0.8

0.8

9.2

10.6

0.5

0.5

Allahabad Bank

Reduce

143

131

7,133

6,944

7,884

3.0

3.1

35.5

37.0

4.0

3.9

0.7

0.6

17.2

15.7

Andhra Bank

Reduce

Axis Bank

Accumulate

Bank of Baroda

Financials
114

97

6,388

4,929

5,633

3.1

3.1

23.7

24.5

4.8

4.7

0.8

0.7

16.6

15.3

1,200

1,328

49,722

15,686

18,687

3.1

3.2

116.8

138.0

10.3

8.7

1.9

1.6

20.0

20.2

Neutral

797

31,204

15,473

18,142

2.6

2.6

115.3

139.4

6.9

5.7

1.1

0.9

16.2

17.2

Bank of India

Accumulate

301

330

17,279

12,573

14,971

2.3

2.4

58.2

68.0

5.2

4.4

0.9

0.7

15.9

16.3

Bank of Maharashtra

Neutral

50

2,924

3,442

3,802

3.1

3.2

8.9

11.4

5.6

4.3

0.7

0.6

13.5

15.5

Canara Bank

Reduce

447

421

19,780

10,905

12,783

2.1

2.2

74.9

85.1

6.0

5.3

0.9

0.8

15.1

15.3

Central Bank

Neutral

76

5,558

7,095

8,102

2.5

2.7

15.6

21.0

4.8

3.6

0.8

0.7

12.2

14.7

www.angelbroking.com

Market Outlook
October 23, 2012

Stock Watch
Company Name

Reco

CMP

Target

Mkt Cap

Sales ( cr )

OPM(%)

EPS ( )

PER(x)

P/BV(x)

RoE(%)

EV/Sales(x)

( )

Price ( )

( cr )

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

Financials
Corporation Bank

Accumulate

409

447

6,061

4,886

5,669

2.1

2.2

101.3

101.8

4.0

4.0

0.7

0.6

17.0

15.1

Dena Bank

Neutral

110

3,866

3,147

3,495

2.8

2.9

24.8

24.4

4.5

4.5

0.8

0.7

18.7

15.9

Federal Bank

Reduce

482

450

8,244

2,593

3,009

3.2

3.2

44.9

52.5

10.7

9.2

1.3

1.2

12.8

13.5

HDFC

Neutral

752

115,787

7,340

8,805

3.5

3.5

31.5

37.8

23.9

19.9

4.8

4.3

34.8

32.2

HDFC Bank

Neutral

628

148,374

21,696

26,811

4.4

4.5

28.7

36.0

21.9

17.4

4.2

3.5

20.7

22.0

ICICI Bank

Buy

1,056

1,245

121,364

22,304

26,855

2.9

3.0

68.6

82.0

15.4

12.9

1.9

1.7

14.2

15.6

IDBI Bank

Neutral

99

12,707

7,761

9,484

1.9

2.2

17.1

22.9

5.8

4.3

0.7

0.6

11.9

14.4

Indian Bank

Neutral

184

7,886

6,062

6,818

3.4

3.4

40.5

41.6

4.5

4.4

0.8

0.7

18.1

16.3

IOB

Accumulate

81

87

6,468

7,343

8,391

2.5

2.5

16.0

21.3

5.1

3.8

0.6

0.5

11.3

13.6

J & K Bank

Reduce

1,155

1,021

5,597

2,600

2,850

3.6

3.5

192.3

188.0

6.0

6.1

1.2

1.0

21.0

17.7

LIC Housing Finance

Buy

248

301

12,495

1,867

2,338

2.4

2.4

21.1

28.5

11.7

8.7

1.9

1.6

17.5

20.4

Oriental Bank

Neutral

294

8,589

6,278

7,125

2.7

2.8

56.7

62.6

5.2

4.7

0.7

0.6

14.1

13.9

Punjab Natl.Bank

Accumulate

822

941

27,886

19,934

22,705

3.3

3.3

147.8

166.2

5.6

5.0

1.0

0.8

17.7

17.3

South Ind.Bank

Accumulate

23

25

3,132

1,535

1,760

2.9

2.8

3.5

3.9

6.6

6.0

1.1

1.0

19.5

17.1

St Bk of India

Neutral

2,257

151,431

63,806

73,435

3.5

3.6

225.7

258.4

10.0

8.7

1.7

1.4

17.7

17.8

Syndicate Bank

Reduce

123

117

7,431

6,722

7,719

2.9

3.0

24.3

27.2

5.1

4.5

0.8

0.7

17.0

16.8

UCO Bank

Neutral

78

5,215

5,411

6,124

2.4

2.5

17.0

16.5

4.6

4.8

0.9

0.8

16.7

14.4

Union Bank

Accumulate

209

226

11,501

9,924

11,647

2.8

2.9

38.6

46.3

5.4

4.5

0.9

0.7

15.4

16.3

United Bank

Accumulate

68

78

2,455

3,572

4,041

2.8

2.9

17.2

22.1

4.0

3.1

0.6

0.5

14.2

16.2

Vijaya Bank

Neutral

57

2,822

2,490

2,881

2.1

2.2

9.2

11.4

6.2

5.0

0.8

0.7

11.5

13.0

Yes Bank

Buy

383

452

13,635

3,270

4,253

2.8

3.0

33.9

42.2

11.3

9.1

2.4

2.0

23.1

23.6

3,882

37,233

11,198

13,184

16.3

16.3

121.0

144.8

32.1

26.8

10.8

8.5

37.4

35.3

3.3

2.7

487

584

5,815

5,835

6,824

5.7

6.0

20.7

25.4

23.5

19.2

9.3

7.1

43.1

41.9

0.9

0.8

1,249

16,981

3,018

3,429

20.9

22.2

35.7

42.3

35.0

29.5

32.3

24.0

101.0

93.5

5.5

4.8

FMCG
Asian Paints

Neutral

Britannia

Buy

Colgate

Neutral

Dabur India

Neutral

131

22,806

6,124

7,030

17.0

16.8

4.5

5.2

29.3

25.3

12.1

9.6

43.2

41.5

3.7

3.2

GlaxoSmith Con*

Neutral

3,058

12,861

3,124

3,663

17.1

17.6

104.5

123.8

29.3

24.7

9.1

7.3

34.4

32.8

3.8

3.2

Godrej Consumer

Neutral

690

23,493

6,097

7,233

18.4

18.6

21.9

26.5

31.6

26.1

7.0

5.8

25.5

25.4

4.0

3.4

HUL

Neutral

567

122,483

25,350

28,974

13.9

13.9

14.3

16.5

39.7

34.4

23.7

18.2

70.9

59.8

4.6

4.0

ITC

Neutral

298

233,725

29,513

33,885

35.4

35.8

9.3

10.8

32.1

27.6

10.6

8.9

35.6

35.0

7.6

6.6

www.angelbroking.com

Market Outlook
October 23, 2012

Stock Watch
Company Name

Reco

CMP

Target

Mkt Cap

Sales ( cr )

( )

Price ( )

( cr )

FY13E

OPM(%)

EPS ( )

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

PER(x)

P/BV(x)

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

RoE(%)

EV/Sales(x)

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FMCG
Marico

Neutral

205

13,194

4,840

5,643

13.1

13.1

6.8

8.5

30.2

24.2

8.3

6.3

31.4

29.7

2.8

2.3

Nestle*

Neutral

4,775

46,042

8,610

10,174

20.9

21.2

114.8

139.8

41.6

34.2

25.1

17.5

71.2

60.3

5.4

4.5

Tata Global

Neutral

158

9,768

7,207

7,927

9.7

10.0

6.6

7.8

23.9

20.2

2.4

2.3

8.6

9.5

1.3

1.1

HCL Tech^

Accumulate

604

648

41,906

24,214

26,772

19.5

18.1

44.0

48.0

13.7

12.6

3.3

2.7

24.0

22.0

1.7

1.4

Hexaware*

Buy

110

140

3,255

1,966

2,161

22.5

21.4

11.6

12.2

9.5

9.0

2.5

2.1

26.8

23.9

1.4

1.2

Infosys

Accumulate

2,383

2,573

136,857

39,174

41,580

29.5

30.4

159.2

171.6

15.0

13.9

3.6

3.2

24.1

23.1

2.9

2.7

Infotech Enterprises

Neutral

194

2,163

1,886

2,032

17.9

17.3

18.7

20.2

10.4

9.6

1.6

1.4

14.9

14.0

0.8

0.7

KPIT Cummins

Buy

116

142

2,065

2,191

2,364

16.1

16.5

11.3

13.0

10.3

8.9

2.3

1.8

21.8

20.0

0.9

0.8

Mahindra Satyam

Neutral

107

12,534

7,628

8,062

19.9

18.4

9.7

10.0

10.9

10.6

3.0

2.4

27.7

22.2

1.2

1.1

Mindtree

Accumulate

655

747

2,679

2,324

2,437

20.0

17.7

73.3

74.7

8.9

8.8

2.1

1.7

24.1

19.7

0.9

0.8

Mphasis&

Neutral

401

8,417

5,700

5,993

18.0

16.9

37.0

37.3

10.8

10.7

1.6

1.4

14.3

12.6

1.0

0.9

NIIT

Neutral

35

576

1,034

1,146

9.9

11.0

5.2

6.4

6.7

5.5

0.9

0.8

12.8

14.3

0.4

0.3

Persistent

Reduce

465

420

1,860

1,207

1,278

26.2

24.3

42.4

44.3

11.0

10.5

1.9

1.6

17.1

15.5

1.2

1.1

TCS

Accumulate

1,290

1,405

252,540

61,611

67,507

29.3

29.1

69.0

74.0

18.7

17.5

6.1

5.0

32.4

28.6

3.9

3.5

Tech Mahindra

Accumulate

927

1,046

11,837

6,603

7,196

18.2

17.1

92.7

99.6

10.0

9.3

2.4

1.9

23.6

20.5

1.9

1.6

Wipro

Buy

344

421

84,803

43,800

48,332

19.5

19.3

25.6

28.1

13.5

12.3

2.6

2.2

18.9

17.9

1.6

1.4

D B Corp

Buy

221

259

4,060

1,581

1,784

23.3

25.0

11.6

14.4

19.1

15.4

3.7

3.2

21.0

22.3

2.5

2.1

HT Media

Accumulate

101

113

2,376

2,111

2,272

15.0

15.2

7.4

8.3

13.7

12.3

1.5

1.3

11.3

11.4

0.8

0.7

Jagran Prakashan

Accumulate

104

112

3,289

1,488

1,664

22.7

22.8

6.2

7.1

16.7

14.6

4.1

3.6

25.2

26.3

2.4

2.1

PVR

Neutral

215

560

625

732

17.4

17.1

13.3

15.6

16.2

13.8

1.8

1.6

13.2

13.8

1.3

1.1

Sun TV Network

Neutral

363

14,293

1,981

2,239

77.0

76.7

18.6

21.3

19.5

17.0

4.9

4.3

27.1

27.5

6.7

5.7

Bhushan Steel

Neutral

499

10,598

11,979

14,584

31.6

31.0

49.2

61.4

10.2

8.1

1.3

1.2

14.1

15.2

2.9

2.4

Coal India

Accumulate

354

385

223,410

69,808

75,550

27.4

27.4

26.0

28.3

13.6

12.5

3.9

3.2

32.5

28.1

2.3

1.9

Electrosteel Castings

Buy

24

29

820

1,984

2,074

10.6

11.6

0.8

2.0

28.4

11.7

0.5

0.2

1.7

4.1

0.6

0.6

Hind. Zinc

Accumulate

134

145

56,725

12,446

13,538

52.3

52.9

15.0

16.4

9.0

8.2

1.8

1.5

21.4

19.7

2.7

2.0

Hindalco

Neutral

115

21,999

84,855

92,446

8.7

9.3

13.2

16.2

8.7

7.1

0.7

0.6

7.8

8.9

0.6

0.6

JSW Steel

Neutral

734

16,373

38,740

41,459

17.3

17.0

79.9

89.4

9.2

8.2

0.9

0.8

10.4

10.6

0.9

0.8

MOIL

Accumulate

248

271

4,167

918

993

50.7

50.9

24.5

26.1

10.1

9.5

1.5

1.4

16.0

15.5

2.2

1.9

Monnet Ispat

Buy

295

379

1,895

2,511

3,303

23.8

26.0

46.3

57.3

6.4

5.1

0.7

0.6

12.4

13.7

1.7

1.2

IT

Media

Metals & Mining

www.angelbroking.com

Market Outlook
October 23, 2012

Stock Watch
Company Name

Reco

CMP

Target

Mkt Cap

( )

Price ( )

( cr )

Sales ( cr )
FY13E

OPM(%)

EPS ( )

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

PER(x)

P/BV(x)

RoE(%)

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

EV/Sales(x)

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

Metals & Mining


Nalco

Neutral

NMDC

Accumulate

50

12,770

7,401

7,841

16.7

19.2

3.4

4.1

14.5

12.1

1.0

1.0

7.4

8.4

1.3

1.2

186

214

73,823

12,934

14,266

79.4

80.1

21.1

23.4

8.8

8.0

2.4

1.9

29.6

26.5

3.9

3.2

SAIL
Sesa Goa

Neutral

82

33,953

47,252

60,351

14.2

14.8

9.6

11.7

8.6

7.0

0.8

0.7

9.4

10.6

1.2

1.0

Neutral

169

14,675

7,704

8,034

33.6

34.6

42.0

43.1

4.0

3.9

0.8

0.7

22.3

19.2

2.2

2.0

Sterlite Inds

Neutral

100

33,724

41,680

45,382

24.2

23.2

16.3

16.9

6.2

5.9

0.7

0.6

11.3

10.7

0.8

0.7

Tata Steel

Buy

407

481

39,538 145,799 150,431

10.3

11.2

48.6

63.3

8.4

6.4

0.8

0.8

10.5

12.4

0.5

0.5

Sarda

Buy

128

148

458

1,251

1,321

22.7

23.4

33.0

37.1

3.9

3.4

0.6

0.5

15.1

14.8

0.7

0.7

Prakash Industries
Godawari Power and
Ispat
Oil & Gas

Buy

53

73

714

2,694

2,906

14.6

16.6

16.4

20.8

3.2

2.6

0.3

0.3

11.4

12.8

0.5

0.4

Buy

119

161

378

2,341

2,425

15.6

17.3

33.3

43.2

3.6

2.8

0.4

0.4

13.2

14.4

0.5

0.5

Cairn India

Accumulate

334

380

63,702

16,605

17,258

75.4

71.7

57.0

54.9

5.9

6.1

1.1

0.9

20.2

16.3

2.9

2.2

GAIL

Neutral

360

45,659

50,176

55,815

15.5

15.8

35.4

36.5

10.2

9.9

1.8

1.6

18.9

17.0

0.6

0.5

ONGC

Accumulate

279

312

238,741 147,139 154,821

33.9

33.7

30.7

32.3

9.1

8.6

1.6

1.4

18.3

17.2

1.4

1.2

Reliance Industries

Neutral

803

263,012 362,700 380,031

7.9

8.0

60.0

63.3

13.4

12.7

1.3

1.2

11.1

10.6

0.7

0.7

Gujarat Gas*

Neutral

297

3,819

11.5

11.3

19.2

22.1

15.5

13.5

4.1

3.7

28.7

29.0

1.1

0.9

Indraprastha Gas

Neutral

254

3,553

3,040

3,135

24.3

26.7

24.8

27.9

10.2

9.1

2.4

2.0

25.5

23.6

1.2

1.0

Petronet LNG
Gujarat State Petronet
Ltd.
Pharmaceuticals

Accumulate

169

183

12,660

30,077

33,570

6.6

6.3

15.1

15.3

11.2

11.1

2.8

2.3

28.4

23.1

0.5

0.4

79

4,448

1,041

939

91.8

91.9

8.5

7.4

9.3

10.7

1.6

1.4

18.1

14.0

5.2

5.7

Alembic Pharma

Buy

70

91

1,314

1,624

1,855

14.2

15.6

6.6

9.1

10.6

7.7

2.6

2.0

27.9

29.9

0.9

0.8

Aurobindo Pharma

Neutral

157

4,565

5,243

5,767

14.6

14.6

11.8

12.6

13.3

12.4

1.7

1.4

17.9

16.4

1.4

1.2

Aventis*

Neutral

2,209

5,088

1,482

1,682

15.5

15.5

95.1

104.4

23.2

21.2

4.1

3.2

18.6

17.0

3.2

2.8

Cadila Healthcare

Accumulate

851

953

17,418

6,148

7,386

18.6

19.6

36.0

46.1

23.6

18.5

5.6

4.5

25.8

26.8

3.1

2.5

Cipla

Accumulate

359

399

28,833

8,031

9,130

23.4

22.4

18.4

20.0

19.5

18.0

3.2

2.8

17.8

16.6

3.4

2.9

Dr Reddy's

Accumulate

1,701

1,859

28,877

10,696

11,662

20.7

21.0

83.7

92.9

20.3

18.3

4.2

3.5

22.4

20.8

3.0

2.6

Dishman Pharma

Neutral

97

785

1,280

1,536

17.8

17.8

9.2

11.3

10.6

8.6

0.8

0.7

7.7

8.5

1.3

1.1

GSK Pharma*

Neutral

1,995

16,896

2,651

2,993

31.7

31.2

76.0

82.4

26.3

24.2

7.6

6.8

20.1

26.3

5.6

4.8

Indoco Remedies

Buy

65

92

596

685

837

15.2

15.2

7.4

8.9

8.7

7.3

1.3

1.2

16.4

17.0

1.1

0.9

Ipca labs

Neutral

458

5,775

2,850

3,474

20.7

20.7

29.2

36.6

15.7

12.5

3.7

2.9

26.1

26.1

2.2

1.8

Lupin

Accumulate

571

647

25,549

8,426

10,082

19.7

20.0

26.3

31.3

21.7

18.3

5.1

4.1

26.0

24.7

3.1

2.5

Orchid Chemicals

Neutral

109

767

1,667

1,835

13.9

13.9

11.4

13.3

9.6

8.2

0.6

0.6

6.6

7.3

0.9

0.8

Neutral

www.angelbroking.com

3,811

3,228

Market Outlook
October 23, 2012

Stock Watch
Company Name

Reco

CMP

Target

Mkt Cap

Sales ( cr )

OPM(%)

EPS ( )

PER(x)

P/BV(x)

RoE(%)

EV/Sales(x)

( )

Price ( )

( cr )

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

Pharmaceuticals
Ranbaxy*

Neutral

540

22,790

12,046

11,980

18.0

15.8

31.3

29.8

17.2

18.1

5.9

4.7

39.1

28.9

1.9

1.9

Sun Pharma

Neutral

694

71,805

9,752

12,134

41.6

41.6

26.0

28.2

26.7

24.6

5.0

4.3

20.3

18.8

6.6

5.1

CESC

Neutral

339

4,236

5,218

5,644

24.2

23.8

44.6

47.6

7.6

7.1

0.8

0.7

11.0

10.6

1.6

1.6

GIPCL

Accumulate

NTPC

Neutral

Power
69

77

1,043

1,557

1,573

29.3

28.7

10.8

11.0

6.4

6.3

0.7

0.6

10.8

10.2

1.1

1.0

166

137,122

74,111

85,789

22.7

23.1

12.1

13.7

13.8

12.1

1.7

1.5

12.6

13.2

2.5

2.3

Real Estate
Anant Raj

Neutral

77

2,263

657

875

52.0

56.1

8.4

12.7

9.1

6.0

0.6

0.5

6.3

8.9

4.7

3.5

DLF

Neutral

206

34,999

9,878

12,033

44.7

46.1

9.6

13.4

21.5

15.4

1.4

1.3

6.4

8.7

6.0

5.0

HDIL

Accumulate

103

115

4,307

2,441

3,344

55.1

48.2

22.7

26.6

4.5

3.9

0.4

0.4

8.8

9.4

3.6

2.7

MLIFE

Neutral

403

1,644

813

901

26.2

26.6

32.0

37.1

12.6

10.9

1.3

1.2

10.4

11.0

2.4

2.1

Bharti Airtel

Neutral

267

101,261

79,147

86,745

31.1

32.5

9.9

15.1

26.9

17.7

1.9

1.7

7.0

9.7

2.0

1.7

Idea Cellular

Neutral

81

26,768

22,582

24,684

26.4

26.9

3.3

4.7

24.3

17.1

1.9

1.7

7.8

9.9

1.6

1.4

Rcom

Neutral

60

12,374

20,650

20,935

32.3

33.0

4.2

5.8

14.2

10.4

0.3

0.3

2.3

3.1

2.2

2.1

Abbott India

Neutral

1,483

3,152

1,602

1,833

10.4

11.8

54.7

71.7

27.1

20.7

5.1

4.4

20.0

22.7

1.8

1.5

Bajaj Electricals

Neutral

228

2,270

3,670

4,290

7.6

8.8

15.0

23.0

15.2

9.9

2.8

2.2

18.6

22.4

0.6

0.5

Cera Sanitaryware

Neutral

376

476

396

470

16.7

16.6

31.0

35.0

12.1

10.7

2.7

2.2

24.8

23.0

1.3

1.1

Cravatex

Buy

457

682

118

289

340

5.2

5.9

41.0

57.0

11.2

8.0

2.8

2.1

25.2

26.5

0.5

0.4

CRISIL

Neutral

969

6,800

982

1,136

34.3

34.3

34.3

40.0

28.2

24.2

12.8

10.2

50.9

46.9

6.5

5.5

Finolex Cables

Buy

48

61

727

2,334

2,687

6.2

6.5

8.0

10.0

5.9

4.8

0.8

0.7

13.0

14.9

0.2

0.2

Force Motors

Buy

421

591

548

2,214

2,765

4.5

5.4

39.0

74.0

10.8

5.7

0.5

0.4

4.4

7.6

0.1

0.1

Goodyear India

Neutral

317

732

1,543

1,654

6.5

7.3

24.8

31.1

12.8

10.2

2.1

1.8

17.1

19.0

0.3

0.2

Disa India

Accumulate

2,947

3,353

445

176

203

22.7

22.6

182.5

209.6

16.2

14.1

8.4

6.6

51.8

47.1

2.3

1.9

Greenply Industries

Buy

254

309

613

1,925

2,235

10.6

10.9

29.6

44.1

8.6

5.8

1.4

1.1

16.8

21.0

0.6

0.5

Hitachi

Reduce

139

130

320

868

977

3.9

6.6

2.7

10.9

50.8

12.8

1.8

1.7

3.7

13.6

0.5

0.4

2,667

2,842

2,358

1,847

2,162

4.3

7.3

69.0

135.0

38.7

19.8

3.5

3.0

9.3

16.3

1.2

1.0

1,099

1,056

1,081

8.1

10.6

34.0

47.0

18.4

13.3

2.6

2.2

14.7

17.5

1.1

1.0

Telecom

zOthers

Honeywell Automation* Accumulate


Styrolution ABS India*

Buy

625

744

ITD Cementation

Neutral

240

276

1,451

1,669

12.3

12.4

32.4

41.5

7.4

5.8

0.7

0.6

9.4

10.9

0.6

0.6

Jyothy Laboratories

Neutral

173

2,784

1,248

1,468

9.8

10.4

5.9

7.2

29.1

24.1

4.2

3.8

15.0

16.6

2.6

2.2

MCX

Neutral

1,400

7,138

553

624

65.3

66.3

62.5

72.0

22.4

19.4

6.2

5.3

27.5

27.4

9.9

8.3

MRF

Buy

10,165

12,884

4,311

11,804

12,727

10.4

10.5 1,289.9 1,431.3

7.9

7.1

1.5

1.3

21.3

19.4

0.5

0.4

www.angelbroking.com

Market Outlook
October 23, 2012

Stock Watch
Company Name

Reco

CMP

Target

Mkt Cap

( )

Price ( )

( cr )

3,342

729

821

Sales ( cr )

OPM(%)

EPS ( )

PER(x)

P/BV(x)

RoE(%)

EV/Sales(x)

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

3,728

887

1,108

18.3

18.6

95.0

120.9

35.2

27.6

18.4

14.9

57.4

59.5

4.2

3.4

875

1,019

1,208

12.3

13.0

51.0

68.4

14.3

10.7

3.8

2.8

30.3

30.2

1.0

0.8

zOthers
Page Industries

Neutral

Relaxo Footwears

Accumulate

Sintex Industries

Accumulate

71

79

1,929

4,751

5,189

16.3

16.6

13.6

15.8

5.2

4.5

0.7

0.6

12.9

13.2

0.8

0.6

Siyaram Silk Mills

Buy

295

392

276

1,042

1,173

12.4

12.5

66.3

78.5

4.5

3.8

0.9

0.7

21.1

20.8

0.5

0.4

S. Kumars Nationwide

Buy

18

24

547

7,134

7,985

19.7

19.4

12.2

14.1

1.5

1.3

0.2

0.1

11.3

11.5

0.6

0.6

SpiceJet

Buy

34

43

1,666

5,720

6,599

5.3

6.8

3.6

5.4

9.5

6.4

13.8

4.4

0.4

0.3

TAJ GVK

Buy

75

108

469

300

319

35.8

36.2

7.9

9.1

9.5

8.2

1.3

1.1

13.9

14.4

1.9

1.6

Tata Sponge Iron

Buy

322

384

496

750

803

18.6

18.4

65.4

69.1

4.9

4.7

0.8

0.7

16.5

15.3

0.3

0.2

TVS Srichakra

Accumulate

311

335

238

1,476

1,643

7.0

8.2

32.6

55.9

9.5

5.6

1.5

1.3

16.8

24.8

0.4

0.3

United Spirits

Neutral

1,274

16,661

10,289

11,421

13.5

14.3

31.0

42.9

41.0

29.7

3.2

2.9

8.1

10.3

2.3

2.1

Vesuvius India

Neutral

355

721

560

611

16.1

17.0

24.7

28.8

14.4

12.4

2.1

1.9

15.8

16.2

1.2

1.1

Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on October 22, 2012

www.angelbroking.com

Market Outlook
October 23, 2012

www.angelbroking.com