Market Outlook Market Outlook: Dealer's Diary

Market Outlook
October 23, 2012
Dealers Diary
Domestic Indices
The Indian markets are expected to open flat with a positive bias following flattish
start to SGX Nifty and other Asian indices.
The U.S. markets on Monday ended in the green after a lackluster session that saw
losses for most of the day amid concerns over slowing corporate earnings growth.
The European markets were unable to hold on to early gains on Monday and
ended the session with modest losses as the markets were under pressure in the
afternoon due to the weak performance of the U.S. markets. Traders also had their
eyes on events in Europe, as European leaders continue to work towards a solution
to the region's debt crisis.
The Indian markets rose on Monday, lifted by upbeat earnings results, a stronger
rupee and a sharp fall in crude prices over the weekend on global growth worries.
However, global cues were mixed, limiting the upside to some extent. Looking
ahead, earnings news is likely to remain in focus throughout the week. Traders are
also likely to keep a close eye on the Federal Reserve, with the central bank due to
hold a two-day monetary policy meeting.
Markets Today
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
BSE Sensex
0.6
Nifty
0.6
32.9
5,717
(0.1)
(6.9)
6,665
SMALL CAP
0.3
21.9
7,192
BSE HC
1.1
80.8
7,601
BSE PSU
(0.0)
(1.1)
7,374
BANKEX
1.0
132.3 13,325
AUTO
(0.2)
(18.8) 10,231
METAL
(0.1)
MID CAP
111.1 18,793
(8.5) 10,343
OIL & GAS
0.7
61.7
8,499
BSE IT
0.8
47.7
,748
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
Global Indices
Dow Jones
NASDAQ
FTSE
Nikkei
Hang Seng
0.0
2.4 13,346
0.4
11.3
3,017
(0.2)
(13.2)
5,883
0.1
8.0
9,011
0.7
145.8 21,698
The trend deciding level for the day is 18,735 / 5,699 levels. If NIFTY trades above
this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally
up to 18,868 18,943 / 5,740 5,762 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below
18,735 / 5,699 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to
18,660 18,526 / 5,676 5,635 levels.
Straits Times
INFY
(1.7)
(0.8)
Indices
SENSEX
NIFTY
WIT
(2.4)
(0.2)
$8.2
IBN
(1.6)
(0.7)
$39.4
HDB
(0.5)
(0.2)
$36.9
S2
18,526
5,635
S1
18,660
5,676
PIVOT
18,735
5,699
R1
18,868
5,740
R2
18,943
5,762
News Analysis
DRL intends to make a recommended public offer for OctoPlus N.V

2QFY2013 Result Review: HDFC, L&T, Cairn India, Bank of Baroda, Idea,
Syndicate Bank, JK Lakshmi Cement
2QFY2013 Result Preview: Hero MotoCorp, Sterlite, Lupin, Yes Bank
Shanghai Com
Indian ADRs
Advances / Declines
(0.1)
(3.3)
3,046
0.2
4.5
2,133
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
$43.7
BSE
NSE
Advances
1,405
705
Declines
1,446
793
125
86
Unchanged
Refer detailed news analysis on the following page
Volumes (` cr)
Net Inflows (October 22, 2012)

` cr
FII
MFs
Purch
2,264
271
Sales
2,131
421
Net
134
(149)
MTD
17,239
(2,725)
YTD
58,009
(10,158)
FII Derivatives (October 22, 2012)

` cr
Index Futures
Stock Futures
Purch
4,786
8,995
Sales
4,550
8,700
Net
236
295
Open Interest
17,987
32,403
Gainers / Losers
Gainers
Company
Losers
Price (`)
chg (%)
Company
Price (`)
Emami-$
563
6.4
Exide Inds
143
(3.9)
JPPOWER
40
5.6
Coromandel Intl
280
(2.6)
130
3.9
TTK Prestige
3,155
(2.5)
ING Vysya Bank
465
3.9
GMR Infra
22
(2.4)
Indiabulls Fin
238
3.6
Voltas
115
(2.4)
Adani Ports
www.angelbroking.com
chg (%)
BSE
1,817
NSE
9,293
Market Outlook
October 23, 2012
DRL intends to make a recommended public offer for OctoPlus N.V

Dr. Reddys Laboratories Limited (Dr. Reddys), together with its subsidiaries,
announces the intended public offer to acquire the issued and outstanding shares
of OctoPlus N.V. (OctoPlus), a service based specialty pharmaceutical company,
for an offer price of 27.39 mn (cum dividend) in cash, representing 100% of the
issued and outstanding ordinary shares. The offer price represents a premium of
30% over the closing price of OctoPlus as on October 19, 2012. Dr. Reddys
currently holds an irrevocable commitment from shareholders representing over
50% of OctoPluss issued and outstanding shares.
This deal will help expand the expertise and scientific capabilities of Dr. Reddy's.
OctoPlus develops formulations for injectables and proprietary drug delivery
technologies, and has a fee-for-service business. For the first six months of 2012, it
reported a loss of 5.8 mn on revenue of 4.8 mn. While the company is not
profitable, the company is looking at the acquisition from long term perspective, as
the acquisition will globalize its R & D efforts, along with the ramp up of its
technology capabilities in drug delivery.
As, the acquisition does not change our numbers significantly, we maintain our
numbers and target on the stock. We recommend an Accumulate on the stock.
Result Review
HDFC (CMP: 750/ TP: -/ Upside: -)
HDFC reported a healthy growth of 17.8% yoy at the net interest income level.
Consequently, the growth in PAT came in at a healthy 18.6% yoy. The asset quality
continued to be strong with gross NPA ratio at 0.77%, lower than the 0.82%
reported in 2QFY2012. The loan book of the company continued to grow at a
strong pace of 22.2% yoy, with loans to individuals growing at 23.8% yoy. HDFC
has been incrementally growing its individual loan book much faster than its
corporate book over the last 6 months in order to improve its margins and noninterest income such as processing fees. Including loans sold, around 80% loans
over the last 6 months have been disbursed to the individual segment. On account
of high valuations and significant premium to the Sensex, we recommend Neutral
on the stock.
Y/E
March
Op. Inc
(` cr)
NIM
(%)
PAT
(` cr)
EPS
(`)
ABV
(%)
ROA
(x)
ROE
(x)
P/E
(x)
P/ABV
(x)
FY2013
FY2014
7,340
8,805
3.5
3.5
4,828
5,792
31.5
37.8
157.7
176.9
1.0
1.0
34.8
32.2
23.8
19.8
4.8
4.2
L&T (CMP: `1,668/TP: Under review /Upside: -)

Larsen and Toubro (L&T) posted a good set of numbers for 2QFY2013, which
were above our and the streets expectations on both, the revenue and the
profitability fronts. The top-line stood at `13,195cr, registering a growth of 17.3%
yoy for the quarter, higher than our estimate of `12,634cr. This was mainly driven
by pick up in execution in the engineering and construction (E&C) segment. On the
EBITDA front, the company reported an EBITDA of `1,406cr indicating a growth of
19.8% yoy. The EBITDA margin came in at 10.7%, an increase of 30bp yoy, and
Market Outlook
October 23, 2012
was below our estimate of 11.4%. On the bottom-line front, L&T reported a growth
of 42.6% yoy to `1,138cr against our estimate of `891cr owing to pick up in
execution and higher exceptional item arising out of divestment gains.
As of 2QFY2013, L&Ts order backlog stands at `1,58,528cr a growth of 11.5%
yoy. The company has secured orders worth `20,967cr and `40,561cr in
2QFY2013 and 1HFY2013 respectively.
For FY2013, the management has reiterated its guidance of 15-20% growth on
both - revenue and order inflow. Given the healthy order inflow in 1HFY2012 we
believe the company would meet its guidance, both on order inflows and the
revenue front.
We believe L&T is best placed to benefit from the gradual recovery in the capex
cycle, given its diverse exposure to sectors, strong balance sheet and cash flow
generation as compared to peers. We continue to remain positive on L&T;
however owing to surge in its stock price we recommend an Accumulate rating
while our target price is under review.
Y/E
March
FY2013
FY2014
Sales
(` cr)
OPM
(%)
PAT
(` cr)
EPS
(`)
ROE
(%)
P/E
(x)
P/BV
(x)
EV/EBITDA
(x)
EV/Sales
(x)
61,031
69,620
11.9
11.5
4,302
4,621
70.2
75.4
15.9
15.1
23.8
22.1
3.6
3.1
15.6
14.1
1.9
1.6
Bank of Baroda- (CMP: `785, TP: `864, Upside: 10%)

Bank of Baroda reported moderate 11.6% yoy growth in its net profits to
`1,301cr during 2QFY2013. Key highlight of the result was the pressure
witnessed on the asset quality front, with 10.5% and 29.3% sequential increase
in both gross and net NPA levels, respectively.
Advances for the bank grew by healthy pace of 22.2% yoy, while deposits
were up by robust 24.0% yoy. CASA ratio for the bank, both global and
domestic dipped sequentially by 28bp and 48bp, respectively to 25.8% and
31.7%. On the non-interest income front, growth was moderate at 12.8% yoy
largely aided by trading gains. Annualized slippages during the quarter came
in at 1.97% as against 1.8% in 1QFY2013 and 1.02% in 2QFY2012. The
bank witnessed 142.5% yoy increase in NPA provisioning (largely due to
higher write-offs). PCR dipped by 330bp qoq and 625bp yoy to 75.7%. The
bank restructured loans worth `993cr during the quarter taking its outstanding
domestic restructured book to `16,668cr (5.7% of net advances). At the CMP
the stock is trading at 0.9x FY2014 ABV. We maintain our accumulate
recommendation on the stock with a target price of `864.
Y/E
March
Op. Inc
NIM
PAT
EPS
ABV
(`)
ROA
ROE
P/E
P/ABV
(` cr)
(%)
(` cr)
(%)
(x)
(x)
(x)
(x)
FY2013E
15,473
2.6
4,754
115.3 756.0
1.0
16.2
6.9
1.0
FY2014E
18,142
2.6
5,748
139.4 864.0
1.0
17.2
5.6
0.9
Idea (CMP: `81 / TP: - / Upside: -)

Idea Cellular (Idea) reported its 2QFY2013, which were in-line with our estimates
on the revenue as well as profitability front. The revenues came in at `5,544cr,
Market Outlook
October 23, 2012
down 3.4% qoq, because of 5.3% qoq decline in MOU to 359min. Overall
network traffic declined by 4.0% qoq. This was due to decline in overall subscriber
base of Idea to 115.4mn from 117.2mn in 1QFY2013. ARPM remained flat qoq
at `0.41/month while APRU declined by 5.1% qoq to `148/month. EBITDA margin
increased by 70bp qoq to 26.8%. PAT came in at `240cr, up 2.5% qoq. The
company remain surrounded by regulatory uncertainties related to spectrum and
license fee payments. We maintain Neutral view on the stock.
Y/E
March
Sales
OPM
PAT
EPS
ROE
P/E
P/BV
EV/EBITDA
EV/Sales
(` cr)
(%)
(` cr)
(`)
(%)
(x)
(x)
(x)
(x)
FY2013E
22,582
26.4
1,097
3.3
7.8
24.4
1.9
6.1
1.6
FY2014E
24,684
26.9
1,559
4.7
9.9
17.2
1.7
5.3
1.4
Syndicate Bank- (CMP: `123/ TP: - / Upside: -)

For 2QFY2013, Syndicate Bank reported disappointing operating performance,
with 5.4% yoy decline in its operating profits to `843cr. However tax write-back of
`100cr as against tax expense of `61cr in 2QFY2012 aided the company to post
earnings growth of 36.6% yoy to `463cr.
On the NII front, the performance was subdued with 5.9% yoy growth. Growth in
non-interest income was moderate at 10.5% yoy to `270cr. On the asset quality
front, the bank witnessed stability with sequential increase in Gross NPA limited to
3.3%, while net NPA declined by 1.7% qoq. Advances for the bank grew by 12.7%
yoy, while deposits were up by 10.5% yoy. At the CMP the stock is trading at 0.7x
FY2014 ABV. We maintain our neutral recommendation on the stock.
Y/E
Op. Inc
NIM
PAT
EPS
ABV
ROA
ROE
P/E
P/ABV
(` cr)
(%)
(` cr)
(`)
(%)
(x)
(x)
(x)
(x)
FY2013E
6,722
2.9
1,461
24.3 152.0
0.7
17.0
4.7
0.7
FY2014E
7,719
3.0
1,640
27.2 172.8
0.7
16.8
4.2
0.7
March
JK Lakshmi Cement (CMP: `125/TP:-/Upside:-)

JK Lakshmi Cement (JK Lakshmi) posted a 38.8% yoy improvement in topline,
which was ahead of our estimates. The growth in topline was led by higher
realization as management indicated only a 7-8% yoy growth in volumes. OPM
surged by 1,135bp on a yoy basis and stood at 23% due to the strong
performance on the realization front. Robust operating performance resulted in the
bottomline expanding by multiple folds to `51cr (vs. 6.5cr in 2QFY2012).
Bottomline was also boosted by ~`9cr of recovery of old dues which were earlier
written off. We have a neutral rating on the stock.
Y/E
Sales
OPM
PAT
EPS
RoE
P/E
P/BV
EV/EBITDA
EV/tonne*
March
(` cr)
(%)
(` cr)
(`)
(%)
(x)
(x)
(x)
US ($)
FY2013E
1,964
19.5
177
16.3
14.7
7.7
1.1
4.3
FY2014E
2,278
20.4
194
17.8
14.6
7.0
1.0
5.7
53
Note:* computed on TTM basis
Cairn India (CMP: `338, TP: `380, Upside: 12%)

Cairn India announced better-than-expected 2QFY2013 results. The companys
top line increased by 67.5% yoy to `4,443cr (in line with our expectation of
Market Outlook
October 23, 2012
`4,418cr) led by higher crude oil sales volumes. The companys gross production
averaged 207,245boepd (+21.9% yoy) during the quarter. However, gross crude
oil realization decreased by 4.6% yoy to US$98.1/bbl (although in rupee terms
realizations were higher). Operating profit grew by 64.0% yoy to `3,452cr,
although operating margin contracted by 142bp yoy to 77.7% during the quarter.
The company recorded an exceptional forex loss of `786cr on account of forex
fluctuation during 2QFY2013. Excluding this exceptional gain, adjusted net profit
grew by 1,239.7% yoy to `3,108cr (above our estimate of `2,807cr). Reported net
profit grew by 204.3% yoy to `2,322cr. We maintain our Accumulate rating on the
stock with a target price of `380.
Y/E
Sales
OPM
PAT
EPS
ROE
P/E
P/BV
EV/EBITDA
EV/Sales
March
(` cr)
(%)
(` cr)
(`)
(%)
(x)
(x)
(x)
(x)
FY2013E
16,605
75.4
10,875
57.02
20.2
5.9
1.1
3.8
2.9
FY2014E
17,258
71.7
10,477
54.93
16.3
6.2
0.9
3.2
2.3
Result Preview
Hero MotoCorp (CMP: `1,831/ TP: `2,077/ Upside: 13%)
Hero MotoCorp (HMCL) is slated to announce its 2QFY2013 results today. We
expect the companys top-line to post a decline of 11.5% yoy (17.4% qoq) to
`5,160cr primarily on account of a 13.7% yoy (18.7% qoq) decline in total
volumes. The poor volume performance can be attributed to weak demand in
domestic markets coupled with rising inventory at the dealer end. We expect the
operating margin (adjusted for change in accounting for royalty payments) to
contract 125bp yoy (50bp qoq) to 11% on account of adverse product-mix and
reduced operating leverage benefits. As a result, we expect the bottom-line
(adjusted) to post a 23.5% yoy decline to `462cr. At `1,831, the stock is trading at
13.7x its FY2014E earnings. Currently, we have an Accumulate rating on the stock
with a target price of `2,077.
Y/E
March
Sales OPM
(` cr)
(%)
PAT
(` cr)
EPS ROE
(`)
(%)
P/E P/BV
EV/EBITDA
EV/Sales
(x)
(x)
(x)
(x)
FY2013E
24,941 15.0
2,447 122.5 49.6 14.9
6.6
7.9
1.1
FY2014E
28,706 15.5
2675.4 134.0 42.2 13.7
5.2
6.4
0.9
Sterlite Industries (CMP: `99/ TP: - / Upside: -)

Sterlite Industries is slated to announce its 2QFY2013 results today. The top-line is
expected to grow by 9.7% yoy to `11,121cr. However, the EBITDA margin is
expected to contract by 477bp yoy to 19.7% due to decrease in realizations and
increase in prices of key inputs. The bottom-line is expected to increase by 26.4%
yoy to `1,299cr. We maintain our Neutral view on the stock.
Y/E
Sales OPM
March
(` cr)
(%)
FY2013E
41,680
FY2014E
45,382
PAT
EPS
(` cr)
(`)
ROE P/E P/BV
EV/EBITDA
EV/Sales
(x)
(x)
(x)
(x)
24.2
5,464 16.3 11.3 6.1
0.7
3.2
0.8
23.2
5,687 16.9 10.7 5.9
0.6
3.0
0.7
(%)
Market Outlook
October 23, 2012
Lupin (CMP: `570/ TP: `647/ Upside: 14%)

For 2QFY2013, Lupin is expected to register a revenue growth of 18.2% to end the
period at `2,058cr vs `1,742cr in 2QFY2012. OPMs are expected to decline by
234bps during the period, which along with higher interest expenditure would limit
the net profit growth to 1.3% yoy. We expect the company to post a net profit of
`270cr vs `267cr (in 2QFY2013). We maintain our Accumulate rating on the stock
with a target price of `647.
Y/E
Sales OPM
March
(` cr)
(%)
FY2013E
8,426
FY2014E
10,082
PAT
EPS
(` cr)
(`)
ROE P/E P/BV
EV/EBITDA
EV/Sales
(x)
(x)
(x)
(x)
19.7
1,167 26.1 25.821.8
5.1
16.0
3.2
20.0
1,388 31.1 24.718.4
4.1
12.9
2.6
(%)
Yes Bank- (CMP: `387 / TP: `452 / Upside: 16.7%)

Yes Bank is slated to announce its 2QFY2013 results today. We expect the bank to
report a strong net interest income (NII) growth of 34.6% yoy to `519cr. The noninterest income is expected to increase by 25.5% yoy to `269cr. The operating
expenses of the bank are expected to be higher by 46.6% yoy to `313cr. The net
profit is expected to increase by 22.6% yoy to `288cr. At the current market price,
the stock trades at a valuation of 2.0x FY2014E ABV. We maintain our Buy
recommendation on the stock with a target price of `452.
Y/E
Op. Inc
NIM
PAT
EPS
ABV
ROA
ROE
P/E
P/ABV
(` cr)
(%)
(` cr)
(`)
(%)
(x)
(x)
(x)
(x)
FY2013E
3,270
2.8
1,197
33.9 161.2
1.5
23.1
11.2
2.4
FY2014E
4,253
3.0
1,491
42.2 196.4
1.5
23.6
9.0
1.9
March
Quarterly Bloomberg Brokers Consensus Estimate

Hero Moto Corp (23/10/2012)
Particulars (` cr)
Net sales
2QFY13E
2QFY12
y-o-y (%)
1QFY13
q-o-q (%)
5,104
5,784
(12)
6,208
(18)
EBITDA
661
919
(28)
937
(29)
EBITDA margin (%)
13.0
15.9
Net profit
445
604
(26)
615
(28)
2QFY13E
2QFY12
y-o-y (%)
1QFY13
q-o-q (%)
2,199
1,742
26
2,219
(1)
EBITDA
445
404
10
458
(3)
EBITDA margin (%)
20.2
23.2
Net profit
284
218
15.1
Lupin Consolidated (23/10/2012)

Particulars (` cr)
Net sales
20.6
30
285
(0)
Market Outlook
October 23, 2012
Sterlite Industries Consolidated (23/10/2012)

Particulars (` cr)
2QFY13E
2QFY12
y-o-y (%)
1QFY13
q-o-q (%)
10,431
10,134
10,591
(2)
2,366
2,482
(5)
2,308
22.7
24.5
1,214
1,500
Net sales
EBITDA
EBITDA margin (%)
Net profit
21.8
(19)
1,779
(32)
United Phosphorous Consolidated (23/10/2012)

Particulars (` cr)
2QFY13E
2QFY12
y-o-y (%)
1QFY13
q-o-q (%)
2,032
1,721
18
2,180
(7)
EBITDA
353
325
386
(9)
EBITDA margin (%)
17.4
18.9
Net profit
159
43
266
172
(8)
2QFY13E
2QFY12
y-o-y (%)
1QFY13
q-o-q (%)
297
235
26
290
Net sales
17.7
Yes Bank Ltd (23/10/2012)

Particulars (` cr)
Net profit
Asian Paints Consolidated (25/10/2012)

Particulars (` cr)
2QFY13E
2QFY12
y-o-y (%)
1QFY13
q-o-q (%)
2,565
2,251
14
2,539
21
447
(12)
Net sales
EBITDA
392
323
EBITDA margin (%)
15.3
14.3
Net profit
252
218
16
299
(16)
2QFY13E
2QFY12
y-o-y (%)
1QFY13
q-o-q (%)
Net sales
9,548
7,307
31
9,248
EBITDA
1,133
874
30
1,109
EBITDA margin (%)
11.9
12.0
Net profit
830
737
17.6
Mahindra & Mahindra (25/10/2012)

Particulars (` cr)
12.0
13
726
14
Kotak Mahindra Bank Consolidated (25/10/2012)

Particulars (` cr)
2QFY13E
2QFY12
y-o-y (%)
1QFY13
q-o-q (%)
500
446
12
452
11
Net profit
Economic and Political News
Odisha achieves 84% electrification target by September

Karnataka's IT/ITeS sector exempted from Industrial Employment Act till 2013
Milk output may touch new high of 135mn tonne next year
Corporate News
L&T Finance Holdings buys FamilyCredit for `120cr

Suzlon Group enters Romanian wind energy market
Vedanta Aluminium resumes Odisha refinery at reduced capacity
Dr Reddy's to acquire OctoPlus NV for EUR27.4mn
Source: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Financial Express, Mint
Market Outlook
October 23, 2012
Result Calendar
Date
Company
October 23, 2012
Hero Motocorp, Sterlite Inds, Lupin, Yes Bank, United Phosphorus, Bank of Maharashtra
October 24, 2012

October 25, 2012
Adani Enterp., M&M, Kotak Mah. Bank, Asian Paints, Nalco, Oriental Bank, Ipca labs, Bajaj Electrical, KPIT Cummins
October 26, 2012
NTPC, ICICI Bank, HUL, GAIL, Punjab Natl.Bank, Sesa Goa, IDFC, Dabur India, IOB, United Bank, Hind. Const.
October 27, 2012
IDBI Bank, Sarda Energy, Siyaram Silk Mills
October 28, 2012
JSW Steel
October 29, 2012
October 31, 2012
BHEL, Bank of India, Colgate, Styrolution

Maruti, Dr Reddy's, Grasim Inds, Shriram Trans., Mahindra Satyam, Glenmark Pharma., IRB Infra, Thermax, Taj GVK,
PVR
J & K Bank, Power Grid Corpn, NHPC, Titan Inds., LIC Housing Fin., Bharat Forge, Tata Global, Aventis, TVS Motor
November 01, 2012
Hexaware, BGR Energy , Jyothy Laboratories
November 02, 2012
Wipro, Rural Elec.Corp., Union Bank, Marico, Apollo Tyres, Indoco Remedies, Dishman Pharma
November 03, 2012
Godrej Consumer, Divi's Lab.
October 30, 2012
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Global economic events release calendar

Date
Country
Event Description
October 23, 2012
Euro Zone
October 24, 2012
Germany
Euro-Zone Consumer
Confidence
PMI Services
Germany
PMI Manufacturing
US
New home sales
US
October 25, 2012
Unit
Period
Bloomberg Data
Last Reported
Estimated
Value
Oct A
(25.90)
(25.90)
Value
Oct A
49.70
50.00
Value
Oct A
47.40
48.00
Thousands
Sep
373.00
385.00
FOMC rate decision
Oct 24
0.25
0.25
US
Initial Jobless claims
Thousands
Oct 20
388.00
370.00
UK
GDP (YoY)
% Change
3Q A
(0.50)
(0.50)
October 26, 2012
US
GDP Qoq (Annualised)
3Q A
1.30
1.80
October 30, 2012
US
Consumer Confidence
Oct
70.30
73.00
India
RBI Repo rate
% Change
S.A./
1985=100
%
Oct 30
8.00
8.00
India
RBI Cash Reserve ratio
Oct 30
4.50
4.25
India
RBI Reverse Repo rate
Oct 30
7.00
7.00
October 31, 2012
Germany
Unemployment change (000's)
Thousands
Oct
9.00
--
November 01, 2012
UK
PMI Manufacturing
Value
Oct
48.40
--
China
PMI Manufacturing
Value
Oct
49.80
--
US
Change in Nonfarm payrolls
Thousands
Oct
114.00
120.00
November 02, 2012
US
Unnemployment rate
November 06, 2012
UK
Industrial Production (YoY)
November 08, 2012
UK
BOE Announces rates
Euro Zone
ECB announces interest rates
China
China
November 09, 2012
Oct
7.80
7.90
% Change
Sep
(1.20)
--
% Ratio
Nov 8
0.50
0.50
Nov 8
0.75
--
Industrial Production (YoY)
% Change
Oct
9.20
--
Consumer Price Index (YoY)
% Change
Oct
1.90
--
Market Strategy
October 23, 2012
Macro watch
Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends
Exhibit 2: IIP trends
(%)
(%)
10.0
8.0
9.2
9.0
8.5
9.0
8.2
7.5
8.0
6.0
8.0
7.6
6.0
6.7
7.0
6.1
5.7
5.3 5.5
5.0
(%)
Aug-12
Jul-12
Jun-12
May-12
Apr-12
Mar-12
Feb-12
(2.8)
(4.0)
(1.8)
(6.0)
(5.0)
Mfg. PMI
60.0
Services PMI
58.0
9.5
7.7
8.0
(0.2)
Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI
12.0
9.9
(1.3)
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: Monthly WPI inflation trends
10.0
Jan-12
Dec-11
Nov-11
1QFY13
4QFY12
3QFY12
2QFY12
1QFY12
4QFY11
3QFY11
2QFY11
1QFY11
4QFY10
3QFY10
2QFY10
1QFY10
Source: CSO, Angel Research
Oct-11
(2.0)
4QFY09
1.0
3.5
3.0
6.9
7.4
7.7
7.5
7.6
7.6
7.5
7.6
7.8
56.0
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Sep-12
Aug-12
Jul-12
Jun-12
May-12
Apr-12
Mar-12
Feb-12
Jan-12
Dec-11
Nov-11
Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion
Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends

(%)
Sep-11
Sep-12
Aug-12
Jul-12
Jun-12
May-12
Apr-12
Mar-12
Feb-12
48.0
Jan-12
50.0
0.0
Dec-11
2.0
Nov-11
52.0
Oct-11
4.0
Oct-11
54.0
6.0
Exhibit 6: Key policy rates
60.0
(%)
9.00
45.0
8.00
30.0
7.00
Exports yoy growth
Imports yoy growth
Repo rate
Reverse Repo rate
CRR
8.00
7.00
6.00
4.50
5.00
Source: RBI, Angel Research
Aug-12
Jul-12
Jun-12
May-12
Apr-12
Mar-12
Feb-12
Jan-12
Dec-11
Nov-11
Jul-12
Jun-12
May-12
Apr-12
Mar-12
Feb-12
4.00
Sep-11
(30.0)
Jan-12
Dec-11
Nov-11
Oct-11
Sep-11
Aug-11
0.0
Sep-12
15.0
(15.0)
2.5
2.7
2.5
2.0
Oct-11
4.0
4.3
2.7
Sep-11
6.0
4.0
Market Outlook
October 23, 2012
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
Agri / Agri Chemical

Rallis
Neutral
136
2,653
1,466
1,686
14.8
14.8
7.0
8.1
19.5
16.8
4.1
3.5
22.6
22.5
1.9
1.6
United Phosphorus
Buy
119
170
5,476
8,421
9,263
16.5
16.5
15.0
17.0
7.9
7.0
1.2
1.0
15.6
15.5
0.8
0.7
Amara Raja Batteries
Neutral
238
4,071
2,844
3,275
15.4
15.6
15.9
18.8
15.0
12.7
3.9
3.1
28.9
26.9
1.4
1.2
Apollo Tyres
Buy
85
99
4,262
13,412
15,041
11.3
11.0
12.1
14.2
7.0
6.0
1.3
1.1
19.6
19.2
0.5
0.4
Ashok Leyland
Buy
23
30
6,226
14,920
16,850
9.0
9.3
2.2
2.8
10.8
8.5
2.0
1.7
13.3
15.6
0.5
0.4
Automotive Axle#
Accumulate
396
430
598
993
1,140
11.6
11.5
36.9
43.0
10.7
9.2
2.1
1.8
21.2
21.3
0.7
0.5
Bajaj Auto
Neutral
1,770
51,224
21,121
23,642
18.4
18.5
108.7
122.6
16.3
14.4
6.8
5.4
46.2
41.6
2.1
1.8
Bharat Forge
Buy
304
351
7,076
7,004
7,985
16.2
16.4
20.3
25.1
15.0
12.1
2.8
2.3
20.0
20.9
1.2
1.0
Bosch India*
Neutral
8,851
27,790
8,793
10,294
17.4
18.5
348.3
435.8
25.4
20.3
4.9
4.1
19.4
20.1
2.8
2.3
CEAT
Buy
117
164
400
4,989
5,634
8.7
8.5
32.7
41.1
3.6
2.8
0.5
0.5
15.8
16.9
0.3
0.2
Exide Industries
Neutral
148
12,610
6,229
7,200
14.8
15.8
7.2
9.0
20.7
16.6
3.6
3.1
18.5
19.9
1.7
1.4
FAG Bearings*
Neutral
1,822
3,028
1,505
1,768
17.5
18.0
111.2
132.7
16.4
13.7
3.4
2.8
22.8
22.2
1.8
1.4
Hero Motocorp
Accumulate
1,849
2,077
36,930
24,941
28,706
15.0
15.5
122.5
134.0
15.1
13.8
6.6
5.2
49.6
42.2
1.2
1.0
JK Tyre
Buy
108
135
444
7,517
8,329
6.1
6.3
26.2
38.5
4.1
2.8
0.5
0.5
13.4
17.2
0.3
0.3
Auto & Auto Ancillary
Mahindra and Mahindra Accumulate
823
944
50,555
37,434
42,860
11.6
11.5
50.4
56.3
16.4
14.6
3.4
2.9
22.6
21.5
1.1
0.9
1,369
39,556
41,796
49,350
7.6
8.6
66.6
92.6
20.6
14.8
2.4
2.1
12.0
14.8
0.7
0.6
150
159
8,839
24,285
27,317
6.7
7.2
8.1
10.6
18.7
14.2
3.9
3.2
22.9
24.7
0.5
0.5
Buy
29
34
175
1,230
1,378
8.8
8.6
4.5
5.7
6.5
5.1
0.6
0.6
9.8
11.8
0.4
0.3
Tata Motors
Buy
269
316
71,665 195,096 219,428
12.8
13.0
39.0
44.9
6.9
6.0
2.0
1.5
32.6
28.8
0.4
0.4
TVS Motor
Accumulate
43
49
2,029
7,611
8,443
7.9
7.9
4.7
5.4
9.1
7.9
1.5
1.3
17.9
18.1
0.2
0.2
Maruti
Neutral
Motherson Sumi
Accumulate
Subros
Capital Goods
ABB*
Sell
780
593
16,526
8,760
10,023
6.2
8.7
14.5
24.7
54.0
31.6
5.9
5.1
11.6
17.6
1.9
1.6
BGR Energy
Neutral
273
1,972
3,669
4,561
11.0
11.0
24.7
29.6
11.1
9.2
1.6
1.5
15.3
16.7
1.1
1.0
BHEL
Neutral
242
59,256
47,801
43,757
19.0
18.8
25.3
22.8
9.6
10.6
2.9
2.5
34.3
25.3
1.1
1.2
Blue Star
Buy
214
249
1,924
2,763
2,948
3.2
5.6
3.5
9.1
61.9
23.5
4.6
4.0
7.7
18.4
0.8
0.7
Crompton Greaves
Accumulate
130
141
8,333
12,691
14,126
7.4
8.9
7.0
9.7
18.6
13.4
2.1
1.9
11.9
15.0
0.7
0.6
Jyoti Structures
Accumulate
48
54
392
2,622
2,744
10.7
10.5
9.6
12.2
5.0
3.9
0.5
0.5
10.8
12.3
0.4
0.3
KEC International
Accumulate
71
78
1,814
6,858
7,431
7.1
7.5
8.3
9.8
8.5
7.2
1.4
1.2
25.1
24.0
0.4
0.4
LMW
Neutral
2,040
2,298
2,369
2,727
11.7
11.7
143.4
166.0
14.2
12.3
2.4
2.2
17.4
18.4
0.5
0.4
Thermax
Neutral
575
6,849
5,514
5,559
8.9
10.2
26.9
30.3
21.4
19.0
3.7
3.2
18.4
18.2
1.1
1.1
Market Outlook
October 23, 2012
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
Cement
ACC
Neutral
1,408
26,438
11,085
12,415
21.6
21.4
79.4
83.1
17.7
17.0
3.4
3.1
20.1
19.2
2.1
1.8
Ambuja Cements
Neutral
206
31,802
10,272
11,884
26.4
26.1
11.5
12.9
18.0
16.0
4.0
3.5
20.8
21.1
2.7
2.2
India Cements
Neutral
98
3,021
4,354
4,929
18.6
18.7
9.8
12.3
10.0
8.0
0.8
0.8
8.6
10.2
1.2
1.0
J K Lakshmi Cements
Neutral
116
1,415
1,964
2,278
19.5
20.4
16.3
17.9
7.1
6.5
1.0
0.9
14.7
14.6
0.9
1.2
Madras Cements
Neutral
187
4,455
3,608
3,928
27.6
27.0
15.7
18.3
11.9
10.3
1.9
1.6
16.9
17.0
1.9
1.6
Shree Cements^
Neutral
4,206
14,654
5,701
6,210
29.7
28.1
240.7
260.7
17.5
16.1
4.2
3.5
27.1
23.6
2.0
1.6
UltraTech Cement
Neutral
2,010
55,082
20,913
23,530
21.3
22.7
93.2
110.5
21.6
18.2
3.7
3.2
18.4
18.7
2.6
2.3
220
304
1,158
2,034
2,315
22.4
22.4
27.1
31.7
8.1
6.9
1.0
0.9
13.1
13.4
1.8
2.1
Construction
Ashoka Buildcon
Buy
Consolidated Co
Neutral
14
259
2,262
2,522
6.7
7.5
1.5
2.7
9.4
5.3
0.4
0.4
4.4
7.5
0.4
0.4
Hind. Const.
Neutral
17
1,049
4,239
4,522
9.9
11.2
(2.3)
(1.0)
(7.7)
(17.9)
1.0
1.1
(11.4)
(5.6)
1.2
1.2
IRB Infra
Accumulate
146
166
4,856
3,964
4,582
42.3
40.2
15.7
16.9
9.3
8.6
1.5
1.3
16.6
15.8
2.8
2.6
ITNL
Buy
184
232
3,581
6,840
7,767
26.4
26.1
24.4
30.3
7.5
6.1
1.1
1.0
16.0
16.2
2.7
2.8
IVRCL Infra
Accumulate
45
51
1,375
5,510
6,722
8.8
9.0
2.5
4.6
17.7
9.8
0.6
0.6
3.4
5.8
0.7
0.7
Jaiprakash Asso.
Neutral
93
19,872
15,259
17,502
25.7
24.7
4.0
4.8
23.3
19.6
1.8
1.7
8.5
9.3
2.6
2.3
Larsen & Toubro
Accumulate
1,633
1,721
100,217
60,474
69,091
12.1
11.5
79.7
85.4
20.5
19.1
3.5
3.0
16.3
15.1
1.8
1.6
Madhucon Proj
Buy
34
56
249
2,206
2,502
10.7
10.7
4.6
4.7
7.3
7.2
0.4
0.4
5.2
5.0
0.7
0.7
Nagarjuna Const.
Reduce
48
45
1,225
5,804
6,513
8.0
8.6
3.0
3.5
15.7
13.7
0.5
0.5
3.2
3.6
0.6
0.7
Patel Engg.
Neutral
80
559
3,609
3,836
13.1
13.1
14.0
14.6
5.7
5.5
0.4
0.3
6.3
6.1
1.0
1.0
Punj Lloyd
Neutral
52
1,719
11,892
13,116
8.9
8.9
1.7
3.1
30.5
16.8
0.6
0.6
1.9
3.4
0.6
0.5
Sadbhav Engg.
Buy
139
182
2,096
2,506
3,147
10.3
10.7
7.5
10.4
18.6
13.4
2.3
2.0
13.5
16.0
1.0
0.8
Simplex Infra
Buy
218
265
1,080
6,732
7,837
8.1
8.4
23.4
29.4
9.3
7.4
0.8
0.8
9.2
10.6
0.5
0.5
Allahabad Bank
Reduce
143
131
7,133
6,944
7,884
3.0
3.1
35.5
37.0
4.0
3.9
0.7
0.6
17.2
15.7
Andhra Bank
Reduce
Axis Bank
Accumulate
Bank of Baroda
Financials
114
97
6,388
4,929
5,633
3.1
3.1
23.7
24.5
4.8
4.7
0.8
0.7
16.6
15.3
1,200
1,328
49,722
15,686
18,687
3.1
3.2
116.8
138.0
10.3
8.7
1.9
1.6
20.0
20.2
Neutral
797
31,204
15,473
18,142
2.6
2.6
115.3
139.4
6.9
5.7
1.1
0.9
16.2
17.2
Bank of India
Accumulate
301
330
17,279
12,573
14,971
2.3
2.4
58.2
68.0
5.2
4.4
0.9
0.7
15.9
16.3
Bank of Maharashtra
Neutral
50
2,924
3,442
3,802
3.1
3.2
8.9
11.4
5.6
4.3
0.7
0.6
13.5
15.5
Canara Bank
Reduce
447
421
19,780
10,905
12,783
2.1
2.2
74.9
85.1
6.0
5.3
0.9
0.8
15.1
15.3
Central Bank
Neutral
76
5,558
7,095
8,102
2.5
2.7
15.6
21.0
4.8
3.6
0.8
0.7
12.2
14.7
Market Outlook
October 23, 2012
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
Financials
Corporation Bank
Accumulate
409
447
6,061
4,886
5,669
2.1
2.2
101.3
101.8
4.0
4.0
0.7
0.6
17.0
15.1
Dena Bank
Neutral
110
3,866
3,147
3,495
2.8
2.9
24.8
24.4
4.5
4.5
0.8
0.7
18.7
15.9
Federal Bank
Reduce
482
450
8,244
2,593
3,009
3.2
3.2
44.9
52.5
10.7
9.2
1.3
1.2
12.8
13.5
HDFC
Neutral
752
115,787
7,340
8,805
3.5
3.5
31.5
37.8
23.9
19.9
4.8
4.3
34.8
32.2
HDFC Bank
Neutral
628
148,374
21,696
26,811
4.4
4.5
28.7
36.0
21.9
17.4
4.2
3.5
20.7
22.0
ICICI Bank
Buy
1,056
1,245
121,364
22,304
26,855
2.9
3.0
68.6
82.0
15.4
12.9
1.9
1.7
14.2
15.6
IDBI Bank
Neutral
99
12,707
7,761
9,484
1.9
2.2
17.1
22.9
5.8
4.3
0.7
0.6
11.9
14.4
Indian Bank
Neutral
184
7,886
6,062
6,818
3.4
3.4
40.5
41.6
4.5
4.4
0.8
0.7
18.1
16.3
IOB
Accumulate
81
87
6,468
7,343
8,391
2.5
2.5
16.0
21.3
5.1
3.8
0.6
0.5
11.3
13.6
J & K Bank
Reduce
1,155
1,021
5,597
2,600
2,850
3.6
3.5
192.3
188.0
6.0
6.1
1.2
1.0
21.0
17.7
LIC Housing Finance
Buy
248
301
12,495
1,867
2,338
2.4
2.4
21.1
28.5
11.7
8.7
1.9
1.6
17.5
20.4
Oriental Bank
Neutral
294
8,589
6,278
7,125
2.7
2.8
56.7
62.6
5.2
4.7
0.7
0.6
14.1
13.9
Punjab Natl.Bank
Accumulate
822
941
27,886
19,934
22,705
3.3
3.3
147.8
166.2
5.6
5.0
1.0
0.8
17.7
17.3
South Ind.Bank
Accumulate
23
25
3,132
1,535
1,760
2.9
2.8
3.5
3.9
6.6
6.0
1.1
1.0
19.5
17.1
St Bk of India
Neutral
2,257
151,431
63,806
73,435
3.5
3.6
225.7
258.4
10.0
8.7
1.7
1.4
17.7
17.8
Syndicate Bank
Reduce
123
117
7,431
6,722
7,719
2.9
3.0
24.3
27.2
5.1
4.5
0.8
0.7
17.0
16.8
UCO Bank
Neutral
78
5,215
5,411
6,124
2.4
2.5
17.0
16.5
4.6
4.8
0.9
0.8
16.7
14.4
Union Bank
Accumulate
209
226
11,501
9,924
11,647
2.8
2.9
38.6
46.3
5.4
4.5
0.9
0.7
15.4
16.3
United Bank
Accumulate
68
78
2,455
3,572
4,041
2.8
2.9
17.2
22.1
4.0
3.1
0.6
0.5
14.2
16.2
Vijaya Bank
Neutral
57
2,822
2,490
2,881
2.1
2.2
9.2
11.4
6.2
5.0
0.8
0.7
11.5
13.0
Yes Bank
Buy
383
452
13,635
3,270
4,253
2.8
3.0
33.9
42.2
11.3
9.1
2.4
2.0
23.1
23.6
3,882
37,233
11,198
13,184
16.3
16.3
121.0
144.8
32.1
26.8
10.8
8.5
37.4
35.3
3.3
2.7
487
584
5,815
5,835
6,824
5.7
6.0
20.7
25.4
23.5
19.2
9.3
7.1
43.1
41.9
0.9
0.8
1,249
16,981
3,018
3,429
20.9
22.2
35.7
42.3
35.0
29.5
32.3
24.0
101.0
93.5
5.5
4.8
FMCG
Asian Paints
Neutral
Britannia
Buy
Colgate
Neutral
Dabur India
Neutral
131
22,806
6,124
7,030
17.0
16.8
4.5
5.2
29.3
25.3
12.1
9.6
43.2
41.5
3.7
3.2
GlaxoSmith Con*
Neutral
3,058
12,861
3,124
3,663
17.1
17.6
104.5
123.8
29.3
24.7
9.1
7.3
34.4
32.8
3.8
3.2
Godrej Consumer
Neutral
690
23,493
6,097
7,233
18.4
18.6
21.9
26.5
31.6
26.1
7.0
5.8
25.5
25.4
4.0
3.4
HUL
Neutral
567
122,483
25,350
28,974
13.9
13.9
14.3
16.5
39.7
34.4
23.7
18.2
70.9
59.8
4.6
4.0
ITC
Neutral
298
233,725
29,513
33,885
35.4
35.8
9.3
10.8
32.1
27.6
10.6
8.9
35.6
35.0
7.6
6.6
Market Outlook
October 23, 2012
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY13E
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FMCG
Marico
Neutral
205
13,194
4,840
5,643
13.1
13.1
6.8
8.5
30.2
24.2
8.3
6.3
31.4
29.7
2.8
2.3
Nestle*
Neutral
4,775
46,042
8,610
10,174
20.9
21.2
114.8
139.8
41.6
34.2
25.1
17.5
71.2
60.3
5.4
4.5
Tata Global
Neutral
158
9,768
7,207
7,927
9.7
10.0
6.6
7.8
23.9
20.2
2.4
2.3
8.6
9.5
1.3
1.1
HCL Tech^
Accumulate
604
648
41,906
24,214
26,772
19.5
18.1
44.0
48.0
13.7
12.6
3.3
2.7
24.0
22.0
1.7
1.4
Hexaware*
Buy
110
140
3,255
1,966
2,161
22.5
21.4
11.6
12.2
9.5
9.0
2.5
2.1
26.8
23.9
1.4
1.2
Infosys
Accumulate
2,383
2,573
136,857
39,174
41,580
29.5
30.4
159.2
171.6
15.0
13.9
3.6
3.2
24.1
23.1
2.9
2.7
Infotech Enterprises
Neutral
194
2,163
1,886
2,032
17.9
17.3
18.7
20.2
10.4
9.6
1.6
1.4
14.9
14.0
0.8
0.7
KPIT Cummins
Buy
116
142
2,065
2,191
2,364
16.1
16.5
11.3
13.0
10.3
8.9
2.3
1.8
21.8
20.0
0.9
0.8
Mahindra Satyam
Neutral
107
12,534
7,628
8,062
19.9
18.4
9.7
10.0
10.9
10.6
3.0
2.4
27.7
22.2
1.2
1.1
Mindtree
Accumulate
655
747
2,679
2,324
2,437
20.0
17.7
73.3
74.7
8.9
8.8
2.1
1.7
24.1
19.7
0.9
0.8
Mphasis&
Neutral
401
8,417
5,700
5,993
18.0
16.9
37.0
37.3
10.8
10.7
1.6
1.4
14.3
12.6
1.0
0.9
NIIT
Neutral
35
576
1,034
1,146
9.9
11.0
5.2
6.4
6.7
5.5
0.9
0.8
12.8
14.3
0.4
0.3
Persistent
Reduce
465
420
1,860
1,207
1,278
26.2
24.3
42.4
44.3
11.0
10.5
1.9
1.6
17.1
15.5
1.2
1.1
TCS
Accumulate
1,290
1,405
252,540
61,611
67,507
29.3
29.1
69.0
74.0
18.7
17.5
6.1
5.0
32.4
28.6
3.9
3.5
Tech Mahindra
Accumulate
927
1,046
11,837
6,603
7,196
18.2
17.1
92.7
99.6
10.0
9.3
2.4
1.9
23.6
20.5
1.9
1.6
Wipro
Buy
344
421
84,803
43,800
48,332
19.5
19.3
25.6
28.1
13.5
12.3
2.6
2.2
18.9
17.9
1.6
1.4
D B Corp
Buy
221
259
4,060
1,581
1,784
23.3
25.0
11.6
14.4
19.1
15.4
3.7
3.2
21.0
22.3
2.5
2.1
HT Media
Accumulate
101
113
2,376
2,111
2,272
15.0
15.2
7.4
8.3
13.7
12.3
1.5
1.3
11.3
11.4
0.8
0.7
Jagran Prakashan
Accumulate
104
112
3,289
1,488
1,664
22.7
22.8
6.2
7.1
16.7
14.6
4.1
3.6
25.2
26.3
2.4
2.1
PVR
Neutral
215
560
625
732
17.4
17.1
13.3
15.6
16.2
13.8
1.8
1.6
13.2
13.8
1.3
1.1
Sun TV Network
Neutral
363
14,293
1,981
2,239
77.0
76.7
18.6
21.3
19.5
17.0
4.9
4.3
27.1
27.5
6.7
5.7
Bhushan Steel
Neutral
499
10,598
11,979
14,584
31.6
31.0
49.2
61.4
10.2
8.1
1.3
1.2
14.1
15.2
2.9
2.4
Coal India
Accumulate
354
385
223,410
69,808
75,550
27.4
27.4
26.0
28.3
13.6
12.5
3.9
3.2
32.5
28.1
2.3
1.9
Electrosteel Castings
Buy
24
29
820
1,984
2,074
10.6
11.6
0.8
2.0
28.4
11.7
0.5
0.2
1.7
4.1
0.6
0.6
Hind. Zinc
Accumulate
134
145
56,725
12,446
13,538
52.3
52.9
15.0
16.4
9.0
8.2
1.8
1.5
21.4
19.7
2.7
2.0
Hindalco
Neutral
115
21,999
84,855
92,446
8.7
9.3
13.2
16.2
8.7
7.1
0.7
0.6
7.8
8.9
0.6
0.6
JSW Steel
Neutral
734
16,373
38,740
41,459
17.3
17.0
79.9
89.4
9.2
8.2
0.9
0.8
10.4
10.6
0.9
0.8
MOIL
Accumulate
248
271
4,167
918
993
50.7
50.9
24.5
26.1
10.1
9.5
1.5
1.4
16.0
15.5
2.2
1.9
Monnet Ispat
Buy
295
379
1,895
2,511
3,303
23.8
26.0
46.3
57.3
6.4
5.1
0.7
0.6
12.4
13.7
1.7
1.2
IT
Media
Metals & Mining
Market Outlook
October 23, 2012
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
Sales ( cr )
FY13E
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
EV/Sales(x)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
Metals & Mining

Nalco
Neutral
NMDC
Accumulate
50
12,770
7,401
7,841
16.7
19.2
3.4
4.1
14.5
12.1
1.0
1.0
7.4
8.4
1.3
1.2
186
214
73,823
12,934
14,266
79.4
80.1
21.1
23.4
8.8
8.0
2.4
1.9
29.6
26.5
3.9
3.2
SAIL
Sesa Goa
Neutral
82
33,953
47,252
60,351
14.2
14.8
9.6
11.7
8.6
7.0
0.8
0.7
9.4
10.6
1.2
1.0
Neutral
169
14,675
7,704
8,034
33.6
34.6
42.0
43.1
4.0
3.9
0.8
0.7
22.3
19.2
2.2
2.0
Sterlite Inds
Neutral
100
33,724
41,680
45,382
24.2
23.2
16.3
16.9
6.2
5.9
0.7
0.6
11.3
10.7
0.8
0.7
Tata Steel
Buy
407
481
39,538 145,799 150,431
10.3
11.2
48.6
63.3
8.4
6.4
0.8
0.8
10.5
12.4
0.5
0.5
Sarda
Buy
128
148
458
1,251
1,321
22.7
23.4
33.0
37.1
3.9
3.4
0.6
0.5
15.1
14.8
0.7
0.7
Prakash Industries
Godawari Power and
Ispat
Oil & Gas
Buy
53
73
714
2,694
2,906
14.6
16.6
16.4
20.8
3.2
2.6
0.3
0.3
11.4
12.8
0.5
0.4
Buy
119
161
378
2,341
2,425
15.6
17.3
33.3
43.2
3.6
2.8
0.4
0.4
13.2
14.4
0.5
0.5
Cairn India
Accumulate
334
380
63,702
16,605
17,258
75.4
71.7
57.0
54.9
5.9
6.1
1.1
0.9
20.2
16.3
2.9
2.2
GAIL
Neutral
360
45,659
50,176
55,815
15.5
15.8
35.4
36.5
10.2
9.9
1.8
1.6
18.9
17.0
0.6
0.5
ONGC
Accumulate
279
312
238,741 147,139 154,821
33.9
33.7
30.7
32.3
9.1
8.6
1.6
1.4
18.3
17.2
1.4
1.2
Reliance Industries
Neutral
803
263,012 362,700 380,031
7.9
8.0
60.0
63.3
13.4
12.7
1.3
1.2
11.1
10.6
0.7
0.7
Gujarat Gas*
Neutral
297
3,819
11.5
11.3
19.2
22.1
15.5
13.5
4.1
3.7
28.7
29.0
1.1
0.9
Indraprastha Gas
Neutral
254
3,553
3,040
3,135
24.3
26.7
24.8
27.9
10.2
9.1
2.4
2.0
25.5
23.6
1.2
1.0
Petronet LNG
Gujarat State Petronet
Ltd.
Pharmaceuticals
Accumulate
169
183
12,660
30,077
33,570
6.6
6.3
15.1
15.3
11.2
11.1
2.8
2.3
28.4
23.1
0.5
0.4
79
4,448
1,041
939
91.8
91.9
8.5
7.4
9.3
10.7
1.6
1.4
18.1
14.0
5.2
5.7
Alembic Pharma
Buy
70
91
1,314
1,624
1,855
14.2
15.6
6.6
9.1
10.6
7.7
2.6
2.0
27.9
29.9
0.9
0.8
Aurobindo Pharma
Neutral
157
4,565
5,243
5,767
14.6
14.6
11.8
12.6
13.3
12.4
1.7
1.4
17.9
16.4
1.4
1.2
Aventis*
Neutral
2,209
5,088
1,482
1,682
15.5
15.5
95.1
104.4
23.2
21.2
4.1
3.2
18.6
17.0
3.2
2.8
Cadila Healthcare
Accumulate
851
953
17,418
6,148
7,386
18.6
19.6
36.0
46.1
23.6
18.5
5.6
4.5
25.8
26.8
3.1
2.5
Cipla
Accumulate
359
399
28,833
8,031
9,130
23.4
22.4
18.4
20.0
19.5
18.0
3.2
2.8
17.8
16.6
3.4
2.9
Dr Reddy's
Accumulate
1,701
1,859
28,877
10,696
11,662
20.7
21.0
83.7
92.9
20.3
18.3
4.2
3.5
22.4
20.8
3.0
2.6
Dishman Pharma
Neutral
97
785
1,280
1,536
17.8
17.8
9.2
11.3
10.6
8.6
0.8
0.7
7.7
8.5
1.3
1.1
GSK Pharma*
Neutral
1,995
16,896
2,651
2,993
31.7
31.2
76.0
82.4
26.3
24.2
7.6
6.8
20.1
26.3
5.6
4.8
Indoco Remedies
Buy
65
92
596
685
837
15.2
15.2
7.4
8.9
8.7
7.3
1.3
1.2
16.4
17.0
1.1
0.9
Ipca labs
Neutral
458
5,775
2,850
3,474
20.7
20.7
29.2
36.6
15.7
12.5
3.7
2.9
26.1
26.1
2.2
1.8
Lupin
Accumulate
571
647
25,549
8,426
10,082
19.7
20.0
26.3
31.3
21.7
18.3
5.1
4.1
26.0
24.7
3.1
2.5
Orchid Chemicals
Neutral
109
767
1,667
1,835
13.9
13.9
11.4
13.3
9.6
8.2
0.6
0.6
6.6
7.3
0.9
0.8
Neutral
3,811
3,228
Market Outlook
October 23, 2012
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
Pharmaceuticals
Ranbaxy*
Neutral
540
22,790
12,046
11,980
18.0
15.8
31.3
29.8
17.2
18.1
5.9
4.7
39.1
28.9
1.9
1.9
Sun Pharma
Neutral
694
71,805
9,752
12,134
41.6
41.6
26.0
28.2
26.7
24.6
5.0
4.3
20.3
18.8
6.6
5.1
CESC
Neutral
339
4,236
5,218
5,644
24.2
23.8
44.6
47.6
7.6
7.1
0.8
0.7
11.0
10.6
1.6
1.6
GIPCL
Accumulate
NTPC
Neutral
Power
69
77
1,043
1,557
1,573
29.3
28.7
10.8
11.0
6.4
6.3
0.7
0.6
10.8
10.2
1.1
1.0
166
137,122
74,111
85,789
22.7
23.1
12.1
13.7
13.8
12.1
1.7
1.5
12.6
13.2
2.5
2.3
Real Estate
Anant Raj
Neutral
77
2,263
657
875
52.0
56.1
8.4
12.7
9.1
6.0
0.6
0.5
6.3
8.9
4.7
3.5
DLF
Neutral
206
34,999
9,878
12,033
44.7
46.1
9.6
13.4
21.5
15.4
1.4
1.3
6.4
8.7
6.0
5.0
HDIL
Accumulate
103
115
4,307
2,441
3,344
55.1
48.2
22.7
26.6
4.5
3.9
0.4
0.4
8.8
9.4
3.6
2.7
MLIFE
Neutral
403
1,644
813
901
26.2
26.6
32.0
37.1
12.6
10.9
1.3
1.2
10.4
11.0
2.4
2.1
Bharti Airtel
Neutral
267
101,261
79,147
86,745
31.1
32.5
9.9
15.1
26.9
17.7
1.9
1.7
7.0
9.7
2.0
1.7
Idea Cellular
Neutral
81
26,768
22,582
24,684
26.4
26.9
3.3
4.7
24.3
17.1
1.9
1.7
7.8
9.9
1.6
1.4
Rcom
Neutral
60
12,374
20,650
20,935
32.3
33.0
4.2
5.8
14.2
10.4
0.3
0.3
2.3
3.1
2.2
2.1
Abbott India
Neutral
1,483
3,152
1,602
1,833
10.4
11.8
54.7
71.7
27.1
20.7
5.1
4.4
20.0
22.7
1.8
1.5
Bajaj Electricals
Neutral
228
2,270
3,670
4,290
7.6
8.8
15.0
23.0
15.2
9.9
2.8
2.2
18.6
22.4
0.6
0.5
Cera Sanitaryware
Neutral
376
476
396
470
16.7
16.6
31.0
35.0
12.1
10.7
2.7
2.2
24.8
23.0
1.3
1.1
Cravatex
Buy
457
682
118
289
340
5.2
5.9
41.0
57.0
11.2
8.0
2.8
2.1
25.2
26.5
0.5
0.4
CRISIL
Neutral
969
6,800
982
1,136
34.3
34.3
34.3
40.0
28.2
24.2
12.8
10.2
50.9
46.9
6.5
5.5
Finolex Cables
Buy
48
61
727
2,334
2,687
6.2
6.5
8.0
10.0
5.9
4.8
0.8
0.7
13.0
14.9
0.2
0.2
Force Motors
Buy
421
591
548
2,214
2,765
4.5
5.4
39.0
74.0
10.8
5.7
0.5
0.4
4.4
7.6
0.1
0.1
Goodyear India
Neutral
317
732
1,543
1,654
6.5
7.3
24.8
31.1
12.8
10.2
2.1
1.8
17.1
19.0
0.3
0.2
Disa India
Accumulate
2,947
3,353
445
176
203
22.7
22.6
182.5
209.6
16.2
14.1
8.4
6.6
51.8
47.1
2.3
1.9
Greenply Industries
Buy
254
309
613
1,925
2,235
10.6
10.9
29.6
44.1
8.6
5.8
1.4
1.1
16.8
21.0
0.6
0.5
Hitachi
Reduce
139
130
320
868
977
3.9
6.6
2.7
10.9
50.8
12.8
1.8
1.7
3.7
13.6
0.5
0.4
2,667
2,842
2,358
1,847
2,162
4.3
7.3
69.0
135.0
38.7
19.8
3.5
3.0
9.3
16.3
1.2
1.0
1,099
1,056
1,081
8.1
10.6
34.0
47.0
18.4
13.3
2.6
2.2
14.7
17.5
1.1
1.0
Telecom
zOthers
Honeywell Automation* Accumulate

Styrolution ABS India*
Buy
625
744
ITD Cementation
Neutral
240
276
1,451
1,669
12.3
12.4
32.4
41.5
7.4
5.8
0.7
0.6
9.4
10.9
0.6
0.6
Jyothy Laboratories
Neutral
173
2,784
1,248
1,468
9.8
10.4
5.9
7.2
29.1
24.1
4.2
3.8
15.0
16.6
2.6
2.2
MCX
Neutral
1,400
7,138
553
624
65.3
66.3
62.5
72.0
22.4
19.4
6.2
5.3
27.5
27.4
9.9
8.3
MRF
Buy
10,165
12,884
4,311
11,804
12,727
10.4
10.5 1,289.9 1,431.3
7.9
7.1
1.5
1.3
21.3
19.4
0.5
0.4
Market Outlook
October 23, 2012
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
3,342
729
821
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
3,728
887
1,108
18.3
18.6
95.0
120.9
35.2
27.6
18.4
14.9
57.4
59.5
4.2
3.4
875
1,019
1,208
12.3
13.0
51.0
68.4
14.3
10.7
3.8
2.8
30.3
30.2
1.0
0.8
zOthers
Page Industries
Neutral
Relaxo Footwears
Accumulate
Sintex Industries
Accumulate
71
79
1,929
4,751
5,189
16.3
16.6
13.6
15.8
5.2
4.5
0.7
0.6
12.9
13.2
0.8
0.6
Siyaram Silk Mills
Buy
295
392
276
1,042
1,173
12.4
12.5
66.3
78.5
4.5
3.8
0.9
0.7
21.1
20.8
0.5
0.4
S. Kumars Nationwide
Buy
18
24
547
7,134
7,985
19.7
19.4
12.2
14.1
1.5
1.3
0.2
0.1
11.3
11.5
0.6
0.6
SpiceJet
Buy
34
43
1,666
5,720
6,599
5.3
6.8
3.6
5.4
9.5
6.4
13.8
4.4
0.4
0.3
TAJ GVK
Buy
75
108
469
300
319
35.8
36.2
7.9
9.1
9.5
8.2
1.3
1.1
13.9
14.4
1.9
1.6
Tata Sponge Iron
Buy
322
384
496
750
803
18.6
18.4
65.4
69.1
4.9
4.7
0.8
0.7
16.5
15.3
0.3
0.2
TVS Srichakra
Accumulate
311
335
238
1,476
1,643
7.0
8.2
32.6
55.9
9.5
5.6
1.5
1.3
16.8
24.8
0.4
0.3
United Spirits
Neutral
1,274
16,661
10,289
11,421
13.5
14.3
31.0
42.9
41.0
29.7
3.2
2.9
8.1
10.3
2.3
2.1
Vesuvius India
Neutral
355
721
560
611
16.1
17.0
24.7
28.8
14.4
12.4
2.1
1.9
15.8
16.2
1.2
1.1
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on October 22, 2012
Market Outlook
October 23, 2012

Market Outlook Market Outlook: Dealer's Diary

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Market Outlook Market Outlook: Dealer's Diary

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Market Outlook

October 23, 2012

OIL & GAS

DRL intends to make a recommended public offer for OctoPlus N.V

Refer detailed news analysis on the following page

Net Inflows (October 22, 2012)

FII Derivatives (October 22, 2012)

ING Vysya Bank

DRL intends to make a recommended public offer for OctoPlus N.V

L&T (CMP: `1,668/TP: Under review /Upside: -)

Bank of Baroda- (CMP: `785, TP: `864, Upside: 10%)

Idea (CMP: `81 / TP: - / Upside: -)

Syndicate Bank- (CMP: `123/ TP: - / Upside: -)

JK Lakshmi Cement (CMP: `125/TP:-/Upside:-)

Note:* computed on TTM basis

Cairn India (CMP: `338, TP: `380, Upside: 12%)

2,447 122.5 49.6 14.9

2675.4 134.0 42.2 13.7

Sterlite Industries (CMP: `99/ TP: - / Upside: -)

ROE P/E P/BV

5,464 16.3 11.3 6.1

5,687 16.9 10.7 5.9

Lupin (CMP: `570/ TP: `647/ Upside: 14%)

ROE P/E P/BV

1,167 26.1 25.821.8

1,388 31.1 24.718.4

Yes Bank- (CMP: `387 / TP: `452 / Upside: 16.7%)

Quarterly Bloomberg Brokers Consensus Estimate

EBITDA margin (%)

EBITDA margin (%)

Lupin Consolidated (23/10/2012)

Sterlite Industries Consolidated (23/10/2012)

United Phosphorous Consolidated (23/10/2012)

EBITDA margin (%)

Yes Bank Ltd (23/10/2012)

Asian Paints Consolidated (25/10/2012)

EBITDA margin (%)

EBITDA margin (%)

Mahindra & Mahindra (25/10/2012)

Kotak Mahindra Bank Consolidated (25/10/2012)

Economic and Political News

Odisha achieves 84% electrification target by September

L&T Finance Holdings buys FamilyCredit for `120cr

October 23, 2012

October 24, 2012

October 26, 2012

October 27, 2012

IDBI Bank, Sarda Energy, Siyaram Silk Mills

October 28, 2012

October 29, 2012

October 31, 2012

BHEL, Bank of India, Colgate, Styrolution

November 01, 2012

Hexaware, BGR Energy , Jyothy Laboratories

November 02, 2012

November 03, 2012

Godrej Consumer, Divi's Lab.

October 30, 2012

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

Global economic events release calendar

October 23, 2012

October 24, 2012