Interested Parties Project New America and USAction October 26, 2012 Obama now up by 3 points in North Carolina

A statewide survey of 500 likely voters in North Carolina was conducted by Grove Insight October 23-24 using professional interviewers. Quotas were set to ensure calling into cell phone only households. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.4 percentage points at the 95% level of confidence. The data reported here closely mirrors party registration in North Carolina -- 37% of the sample are registered Republicans, 38% are registered Democrats, and 25% are not affiliated with either party.

President Obama Leads in North Carolina
 The race in North Carolina has begun to stabilize with Obama and Romney receiving the same as they did last week (47% to 44%). The President’s lead can be attributed to a widening gender gap. Last week, women gave Obama a six point advantage; this week the margin has grown to seven (50% to 43%). Romney is now up by one point among men (44% to 45%), whereas the race was tied several days ago..

Presidential Vote – North Carolina

80% 60% 40% 20%

+3 47% 44%

0% Obama
41% Lean Obama 6% Other


The typical generational divides can be found Romney 39% here with younger voters offering a double-digit Lean Romney 5% lead to the President (52% to 40%) and Romney has the advantage with the over-50 crowd (42% to 48%). Though it is worth noting that the President has picked up a little steam with voters 70+ -- his vote totals increased by seven points since last week’s track. Obama wins Independent voters right now (49% Obama, 36% Romney), though he’s running behind among white Independents (38% to 44%). The difference is explained by Obama’s performance among African American Independents (77% to 9%). While Obama is more likely to be thought to “understand the struggles middle class families face” by a wide, 10point margin, the difference between the two when it comes to steady leadership (+6) and trusted decision making (+4 Obama) are closer.
Who does it better describe – Democrat Barack Obama or Republican Mitt Romney? [Names rotated]
Obama Romney

Understands the struggles middle class families face Offers calm and steady leadership in a time of crisis Trust to make decisions that are in the best interest of people like you Too willing to say or do anything to get elected

47 45 46 39

37 39 42 40 @PNAmerica @USAction

Demographic comparisons between this Grove Insight poll, the voterfile and other recent public surveys conducted in North Carolina
Grove Insight Poll October 23-24 The Voterfile PPP Poll October 23-25 Tel Opinion Research October 12-13

Voters under age 40 Voters under age 50 Voters over age 50 Voters over age 70 White voters African American Voters Women Men Registered Republicans Registered Independents Registered Democrats Self ID’d Republican Self ID’d independent Self ID’d Democrat

28% 45% 54% 16% 73% 22% 52% 48% 37% 26% 37% 36% 27% 35%

33% 52% 48% 14% 72% 24% 53% 47% 30% 26% 44% NA NA NA

NA NA NA NA 71% 22% 55% 45% NA NA NA 35% 21% 44%

NA NA NA NA 76% 21% 53% 47% 31% 25% 44% NA NA MA @PNAmerica @USAction

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