Interested Parties Project New America and USAction October 26, 2012 Obama now up by 5 points in Wisconsin

A statewide survey of 500 likely voters in Wisconsin was conducted by Grove Insight October 24-25 using professional interviewers. Quotas were set to ensure calling into cell phone only households. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.4 percentage points at the 95% level of confidence.

Obama up, Senate race close  Barack Obama is ahead by five percentage points, capturing 48% of the vote to Romney’s 43%. While women (52% to 39%) and voters under 50 (54% to 36%) help give the President his lead, Obama is competitive with Romney among men (44% to 47%) and older voters (44% to 48%). The President also outpaces Romney among Independent voters by double-digits (45% to 33%).

Presidential Vote – Wisconsin


60% 40% 20%



Obama 41% Lean Obama 7% Romney 38% Lean Romney 5%


While neither candidate is winning a popularity contest anytime soon, we do find the President slightly better liked (49% favorable, 46% unfavorable) than Romney (44% favorable, 48% unfavorable). Obama has a double-digit advantage for “understands the struggles middle class families face” (+10), but the race is very close on the three other measures we tested, as the chart below indicates. Though it bodes well for the President that undecided voters are much more likely to believe Obama gets their middle class angst (+28), is to be trusted to make decisions that are in the best interests of people like them (+13) and offers measured leadership (+8). When asked who is too willing to “say or do anything to get elected,” undecided voters give Romney the edge (+7), but their resounding answer is both (69%).
Who does it better describe – Democrat Barack Obama or Republican Mitt Romney? [Names rotated] Obama Romney

 

Understands the struggles middle class families face Trust to make decisions that are in the best interest of people like you Offers calm and steady leadership in a time of crisis Too willing to say or do anything to get elected

47% 45% 44% 36% @USAction

37% 42% 41% 37% @PNAmerica

Demographic comparisons between this Grove Insight poll, the voterfile and other recent public surveys conducted in Wisconsin Grove Insight Poll October 24-25 The actual voter file WSJ-Marist Poll October 18

Voters under age 30 Voters age 30-59 Voters over age 60 White voters Black Voters Women Men Self ID’d Republican Self ID’d independent Self ID’d Democrat

11 54 34 92 5 52 48 31 36 30

NA NA NA 90 7 52 48 NA NA NA

9 54 37 89 5 52 48 28 38 33 @PNAmerica @USAction

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