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The Evolution of Citizenship Economic and Institutional Determinants ∗
ABSTRACT We investigate the evolution of the legal institution of citizenship from a political economy perspective. We first present a median voter model of citizenship laws determination. Next we test the implications of the model on a new dataset on citizenship laws across countries of the world. We show that citizenship laws have responded endogenously to economic and institutional determinants. When facing increasing immigration, countries with a jus soli tradition tend to restrict their legislation, while jus sanguinis countries resist innovation. The welfare burden proves not to be an obstacle for jus soli legislation, while demographic stagnation encourages it. A high degree of democracy promotes the adoption of jus soli elements, while the instability of state borders determined by decolonization impedes it. Religion and ethnic diversity have no residual impact. .Key Words: citizenship laws, international migration, legal origins, democracy, borders. 1
1. Introduction Each country of the world has established a complex system of rules that govern the attribution of citizenship. As a consequence of the increasing pressure of international migration, citizenship laws have moved to center stage on policy agendas, since citizenship laws not only affect the design of immigration policy, but also interact with the workings of labor markets, affect welfare programs, and influence demographic trends. Citizenship is the legal institution that designates full membership in a state and the associated rights and duties. It provides benefits such as the right to vote, better employment opportunities, and the ability to travel without restrictions, legal protection in case of criminal charges, and the possibility to obtain a visa for a relative. There are also costs to citizenship, such as the military draft, renunciation of the original citizenship, and the pecuniary and non-pecuniary costs that may be required for naturalization and for recognition at the age of majority. Examples are language and culture tests, waiting periods, and a commitment to avoid activities leading to disqualification. There are several ways to acquire citizenship: at birth, by naturalization, by marriage.
The regulation of citizenship at birth, which determines citizenship acquisition by second- generation immigrants, is rooted in the well-defined bodies of common and civil law. The former traditionally applies the jus soli principle, according to which citizenship is attributed by birthplace: this implies that the child of an immigrant is a citizen, as long as he is born in the country of immigration. The latter applies the jus sanguinis principle, which attributes citizenship by descent, so that a child inherits citizenship from his parents, independently of where he is born. Despite being rooted in these principles, during the 20th century - and especially after World War II - in many countries citizenship laws have gone through a process of continuous adaptation, in conjunction with the decolonization phase, the collapse of the socialist system, and the mounting pressure of international migration. In this paper we investigate the determinants and evolution of citizenship laws in the postwar period from a political economy perspective. To pursue this goal, we assemble a new dataset which codifies citizenship laws across the countries of the world, with a specific focus on the provisions that regulate the access to citizenship at birth. The dataset is then used to study the dynamic adaptation of these laws, by relating the observed patterns to a
number of potential determinants, including economic factors as well as other political and cultural factors which have been found relevant in related research on institutions. Modern sociopolitical theories have advanced several hypotheses concerning the determinants of citizenship laws dynamics, on the basis of case studies and nonquantitative cross country comparisons. The legal tradition established in a given country is generally believed to exert a persistent impact on current legislation. The relevance of migration has also been investigated. In particular, pressure from a large stock of migrants is perceived as a factor that shapes a country's attitude toward citizenship policy. On the one hand, it could push toward a legislation that allows automatic citizenship granting for all newborn. On the other, migration could also drive toward restrictions of the same principle in countries where it was originally applied. According to some sociopolitical theories, the combination of these forces tends to induce convergence toward a mix of jus soli and sanguinis provisions for countries coming from different legal traditions (Weil 2001). For the case of Europe, Baubock et al. (2006) instead stress the presence of divergent trends, towards liberalization in some countries and toward restriction of access to citizenship in others. The influence of other economic forces is also recognized. Since citizenship rights determine the ability to enjoy welfare benefits, the shaping of nationality laws has been linked with the nature of the welfare state, with a large government representing a potential obstacle to the retention of jus soli (Joppke 1998). This argument, however, has to be weighted against the potential gain coming from the acquisition of relatively young new citizens for countries with expensive
pension systems and in the midst of a demographic crisis. Political factors have also been found relevant. The presence of a consolidated democracy is expected to lead to the adoption of jus soli, viewed as a more equal treatment of aliens. Stabilization of state borders should reduce the pressure to preserve a national identity through jus sanguinis. Finally, an additional factor that has been the subject of debate is the influence of national character and culture. The theory advanced by Brubaker (1992) focuses on France and Germany as two antagonistic kinds of nationhood, the former more assimilationists, and the latter more ethnocentric, which also differ in their definitions of citizenship. In this paper we formalize the above hypotheses within a simple median voter model which can guide our empirical investigation by generating testable implications and by offering an interpretation of the resulting evidence.
The model is based on the assumption that the laws regulating citizenship acquisition can be viewed as the outcome of the decision problem faced by a native median voter, in a context where citizenship confers the right to vote over policy variables. In making this decision, the native median voter takes into account the associated benefits and costs, which depend on the share of migrants over population and the other factors suggested by the literature. The model indicates that the share of migrants has a potentially ambiguous impact on the decision to grant citizenship and voting rights to migrants, since it increases the loss, for the native median voter, of letting migrants vote, but it also increases the cost associated with their exclusion. Moreover, the natives' decision is positively influenced by a relatively high income level of the migrants, a small welfare state, a relatively old native population, a high level of democracy, a stable national border, and an inclusive national culture. We test the above empirical implications and find that in the postwar period citizenship laws have responded endogenously and systematically, through a slow but steady process of adaptation, to economic and institutional factors. Overall, our results suggest that migration pushes national legislations in the direction of jus sanguinis, not jus soli. In particular, when we take into account the legal tradition established in the matter of citizenship, we find that countries with a jus soli origin react to increasing migration by adding jus sanguinis elements. On the other hand, in jus sanguinis countries the impact of migration has been negligible. Therefore, the evidence does not support the hypothesis of convergence toward a mixed regime, since migration tends to induce restrictions, but not extensions. Other economic factors also matter. While the welfare burden proves not to be an obstacle for a jus soli legislation, demographic stagnation encourages the adoption of mixed and jus soli regimes.
Turning to institutional factors, we find that a high degree of democracy is significantly associated with a jus soli legislation while border instability, in particular following the decolonization phase, decreases its likelihood. Cultural characteristics captured by religion and ethic fractionalization are not found to play a significant role. The rest of the paper is organized as follows: Section 2 introduces the related literature. Section 3 reviews the historical and legal background for the issues we address. Section 4 presents our model of citizenship laws determination. Section 5 describes our dataset on citizenship laws around the world 4
Section 6 investigates empirically the determinants of current citizenship laws and presents our main results, together with a set of robustness checks. Section 7 develops an alternative empirical strategy that highlights the determinants of change in citizenship laws. Section 8 concludes and indicates directions for future research. The Data Appendix collects information about the data employed. 2. Related Literature Our work is related with several branches of the economic literature. First of all, this paper adds to research on international migration and migration policy. Timmer and Williamson (1998), Hatton and Williamson (2006) and Bertocchi and Strozzi (2008) empirically analyze immigration policies enacted at the end of the 19th century during the mass migration era, while O'Rourke and Sinnott (2006) and Mayda (2006) estimate voters' attitudes toward immigration in the postwar period. The political economy of migration has been modeled, among others, by Benhabib (1996), Gradstein and Schiff (2006), and DeVoretz (2006). More specifically, the role of citizenship policy has been discussed by DeVoretz and Pivnenko (2006), who investigate the economic costs and benefits derived from citizenship, by Pritchett (2006), who evaluates citizenship policy within a broader discussion on labor mobility and
Since our theory emphasizes that citizenship rights imply the right to vote. Acemoglu. . However. (1998). and Robinson (2001) contribute to the understanding of how institutions evolve by using historical variables as instruments for contemporary measures of the quality of institutions. the issue of franchise extension has recently received considerable attention within the literature. More broadly. our work contributes to the research program which has focused on the historical determinants of institutions. This paper also relates to the comparative legal approach initiated by La Porta et al. The basic premise of this research line is the recognition that laws in different countries are adopted or transplanted from a few legal traditions and that the resulting legislative bodies reflect both the influence of the legal origin and the subsequent revision specific to individual countries. Balas et al. our work is also related to Razin. and by Chiswick and Miller (2008). who compare the impact of migration on the welfare state with or without voting rights for the migrants. Engerman and Sokoloff (2002) highlight the relevance of wealth inequality and political factors in accounting for how fundamental economic 5 Page 7 institutions developed over time. (2008) specifically analyze the evolution of an index of formalism of legal procedure. but with a focus on the conflict between rich and poor. who evaluate the determinants of the decision to naturalize. Sadka. they do not examine the determinants of these alternative regimes.. Johnson.immigration policies. We add to this stream by focusing on the determinants of the dynamic adaptation of nationality rules. while Bertocchi (2007) concentrates on the conflict between men and women. and Swagel (2002) and Dolmas and Huffman (2004). On the other hand. Bertocchi and Spagat (2001). with contributions by Acemoglu and Robinson (2000).
At the same time.Finally. and thus state borders. following feudal traditions which linked human beings to the lord who held the land where they were born. and also because borders play an important role on the determination of citizenship rules. Japan also adopted jus sanguinis in this phase. Citizenship Laws in Historical Perspective Citizenship policy can be viewed as part of broader migration policy. starting with the United States where it was later encoded in 6 Page 8 the Constitution. the process of nation-state formation and the associated codification effort were completed in Continental Europe. the British preserved their jus soli tradition and spread it through their own colonies. In 18th century Europe jus soli was the dominant criterion. By the end of the 19th century. contrary to other migration policy measures such as quotas and visa requirements. However. . 3. The French Revolution broke with this heritage and with the 1804 civil code reintroduced the ancient Roman custom of jus sanguinis. citizenship laws reforms tend to be the outcome of long-term processes of adaptation often involving constitutional amendments. During the 19th century the jus sanguinis principle was adopted throughout Europe and then transplanted to its colonies. By imitation. both because country size in this literature is the same as population size and is potentially influenced by migration and by the legal status of immigrants. Continental modern citizenship law was subsequently built on these premises. is also relevant to our approach. recent work by Alesina and Spolaore (1997) and Bolton and Roland (1997) on the optimal determination of the size of nations. On the other hand. that are typically adjusted to the business cycle and to the current government orientation.
Debate about possible restrictions did arise recently. and jus sanguinis regulating citizenship law in most civil law countries. 1 In particular. jus soli came under attack in the 1980s regarding its applicability to the children of illegal immigrants. while civil law France. drawing mostly from Joppke (1998). The United States Jus soli was encoded in the US Constitution through the 1868 Fourteenth Amendment. civil law Latin America had embraced jus soli early on. with jus soli being the norm in common law countries. For instance. by that stage. and 19th century colonization had extended the process of transplantation of legal tradition to the rest of the world. the US approach is still remarkably consistent with its original attitude in all its aspects.the revolutionary phase was over in those countries that had been the subject of the earlier colonization era. ranging from immigration policy to naturalization requirements. with the specific purpose to protect the birthrights of black slaves. 2 Australia Current citizenship law in Australia differs considerably from that of the United . with its colonies. had by then already moved toward a mixed regime. 2001) and Brubaker (1992). However. Therefore. Below are some specific cases. Consistently with its history as a country of immigrants. and with a general positive attitude toward economic liberalism. despite important exceptions. but never led to actual change. the next century witnessed a continuous process of transformation of citizenship laws across the world. Aleinikoff and Klusmeyer (2000. A relatively young and thin welfare state contributes to the fiscal sustainability of jus soli in this country. most countries of the world had established specific provisions regarding citizenship acquisition within a relatively well-developed legal system.
7 Page 9 States. Jus soli had also been introduced in Australia by the colonists. Huntington (2004) has criticized current nationality regulations on the grounds that they represent a “devaluation of citizenship”. At independence.1 In his analysis of Mexican immigration. Jus soli survived until 1986. if compared to residency. Latin America In the face of a civil law tradition which had been transplanted by the European powers. Therefore. most of Latin America was already a jus soli country before the 19th century immigration waves began. in the sense that it confers few additional benefits if compared with residency. even if it is no longer attracting immigrants. Jus soli was encoded in the Constitution of Brazil in 1824. despite the common origin as countries of immigration. In the postwar period. Mexico represents a special case where jus soli was also . Pritchett (2006) discusses the possible advantages of guest-worker programs which do not contemplate citizenship. potentially relevant consideration: in the US. is a related. citizenship is relatively thin. while afterwards a person born in Australia must have at least one parent who is either an Australian citizen or a permanent resident in order to acquire citizenship. of Argentina in 1853. of Venezuela in 1830. most of the incipient states chose jus soli as a way to break with the colonial political order and to prevent the metropoles from making legitimate claims on citizens born in the new countries. the country went through numerous legislative and administrative reforms. for instance. this area has followed a rather peculiar pattern. from the perspective of poor countries. Jus soli is still the prevalent rule in the area. 2 The relative thickness of the concept itself of citizenship.
where jus sanguinis was first introduced with the 1804 Civil Code and maintained 8 Page 10 for the entire course of the 19th century. but was then abandoned in 1836. raised concern regarding assimilation. this open-door policy was progressively restricted. especially from North Africa. even though special status is still attributed to citizens of the British Commonwealth. France The emergence of the nation-state in Continental Europe was the main factor that shaped citizenship law in this area. The revolutionary experience was particularly important for France. only to come back to stay with a Constitutional Amendment in 1937. K. Redefinitions of national citizenship have been effectively employed. The 1948 Nationality Act created the status of Citizen of the United Kingdom and Colonies for people with a close connection to the UK and its colonies. Citizenship issues and the rights of immigrants became the object . making the experience of this country a unique one. in 1889 double jus soli became automatic. as a form of selective immigration policy. particularly extensive. Because of its colonial history. since the 1980s. large-scale immigration. since all subjects of the British Empire had equal access to British citizenship simply by establishing residence in the UK. The 1984 British Nationality Act restricts jus soli by establishing that a child born in the U. In order to secure immigrants' children born in France to the draft.adopted in the 1814 insurgent Constitution. even though military consideration introduced early on elements of jus soli. After World War II. The United Kingdom British nationality law has been deeply affected by the imperial experience. Following a postwar wave of colonial immigration. up to World War II. the concept of nationality in the UK was. qualifies for British citizenship only if at least one parents is a British citizen or resident.
mostly from Turkey but also from Southern Europe. and at the same time with millions of ethnic Germans living behind the Iron Curtain. following an intense political struggle. Germany The single most relevant event in the history of German citizenship law is certainly the fall of the Berlin wall. but to no avail. which had established strong sanguinis ties with German overseas emigrants. these restrictions were considerably revised. which turned naturalization from the discretionary exception into the rule. With the foundation of the GDR and the consolidation of the Eastern Block. and Germany to its ethnic identity.of heated debate in French politics. Germany found itself in the paradoxical situation of having to live with a large population of disenfranchised foreigners born on its soil at home. had started to put under strong pressure. the original Wilhelminian citizenship law of 1913. The case of France is frequently compared with Germany. With the Left regaining political power in 1997. was finally approved in . A major overhaul of the legislation. In 1993 Chirac introduced a restrictive revision to the legislation. Brubaker (2002) has influentially argued that the different path followed by these countries has been shaped by their cultural difference. nor declined it. the massive guest-worker immigration of the postwar period. that required a formal citizenship request from second-generation immigrants. with France sticking to its tradition of assimilationist nation. which paved the way for the achievement of stable national borders. A first step in this direction was the new Foreigner Law in 1990. Achieving border stability was a decisive factor in pushing Germany toward the longdelayed adoption of jus soli elements. Prior to that. with the automatic assignment of citizenship at age 18 to those immigrants' children born in France who had neither requested. however.
In the evaluation of the German experience. the strong ethnic character of German national identity.1999. as mentioned in the introduction. The vast majority of the African colonies that were subject to civil law countries practicing jus sanguinis stuck to this principle after independence. which recently adapted their legislation to the globalization of international migration and its increasing impact on Europe. As documented by Weil (2001). in the entire EU. On the other hand. access to citizenship by second and third generation is facilitated. in the vast majority of European countries. with the exceptions of Austria. and not only through the indirect impact on the metropolitan countries we previously examined. . The latter aspect may have played a role in shaping the evolution of citizenship policies in several other European countries and especially the Scandinavian ones. but had recently to adapt to the quickly changing conditions. Jus soli is now the norm in Germany (under the mild requirement that one parent has lived in the country for eight years). Greece and Luxembourg. For instance. many former British and Portuguese colonies rejected the jus soli tradition and switched to an often strongly ethnically-tinged version of jus sanguinis. restricted forms of double jus soli are de facto applied. where jus sanguinis was functional to the large past emigration flows. especially for high-immigration Sweden. by now. and the thick nature of the 9 Page 11 German welfare state. other factors that may have delayed the introduction of jus soli are. In particular. Decolonization Postwar decolonization had a major impact on citizenship rules applied around the world.
At the same time. Latvia and Lithuania in 1940. the associated exclusive notion of ethnic and tribal identity caused enormous problems in countries where colonial rule had left shaky democratic institutions.Sierra Leone's 1961 Constitution established that citizenship is transmitted only by descent and only to children whose father and a grandfather were Sierra Leoneans of AfricanNegro descent. jus sanguinis tended to prevail as a way to control more easily the formation of national entities. In 1981 Mobutu signed a new law on nationality requiring an ancestral connection to the population residing in the territory as far back as 1885. The Soviet Union had occupied Estonia. 10 Page 12 The disintegration of the USSR Another major wave of citizenship law codification followed the disintegration of the USSR. there had been considerable migration within. During the following decades millions of Russians were encouraged to settle in Latvia and Estonia (less so in Lithuania) in order to Russify them. Marginalization and de facto statelessness of significant strata of the population is the unavoidable outcome of these policies. stateless. in an effort to exclude Rwandan immigrants. however. To these days. To these days. The area had been sealed toward international migration but. The 1964 Congolese Constitution. In situations where instability was pushed to an extreme degree by the young age and the arbitrary borders of these countries. sizeable minorities . large Russian-speaking. ethnic conflict lies at the roots of a chronic manipulation of citizenship rules in favor of one ethnic group over others. and was compounded with deep ethnic division. as for all empires. recognized citizenship only for persons whose parents were members of one of the tribes established within the territory by 1908.
The issue for these states was how to balance a need to reconstitute their national identity around an ethnic model. The aim of the model is also to generate testable implications that can guide our interpretation of the empirical evidence. while most other countries of the area still persist with discriminatory policies. showed a more open approach. and a commitment to democratic values with respect to the rights of minorities. for the case of the Russian Federation. After independence.are still present. these recommendations were indeed fulfilled in the more recent legislation of the Baltics. We can view the laws regulating citizenship acquisition as the outcome of the decision problem faced by a median voter. 4. while Lithuania. this perception as a country of emigrants pushes toward the persistence of jus sanguinis as the main principle. The Model This section develops a simple theoretical model which formalizes the hypotheses that a widely interdisciplinary literature has advanced with respect to the determinants of citizenship laws. The hostile attitude toward ethnic Russians was especially strong in Latvia. Estonian and Latvian laws were sharply criticized by international organizations on the grounds of human rights. the new citizenship laws of these three states reflected this heritage with an emphasis on jus sanguinis as the basis for acquiring citizenship. even though small concessions to jus soli have been made. spread around the former regions of the USSR. In the anticipation of EU integration. the salient fact in shaping current citizenship policy is the perception that many of its citizens are outside its borders. By contrast. in a context where citizenship confers the right to vote . which was less affected by Soviet immigration policy. Again.
over policy variables. beside the right to vote. economic and social goals. and y = N P y . a redistributive tax scheme which finances a public good. before we present the model's details. where M + N = P and M < N. and 11 Page 13 thus the right to vote. respectively. Finally. even if the model concentrates on voting on a specific policy. We consider an economy where a population of mass P consists of natives with mass N and migrants with mass M. where y N and y M denote average income for natives and migrants. our focus on the right to vote as the main benefit of citizenship is easily justified. therefore the model's predictions can be applied to the laws concerning both citizenship at birth and naturalization. Second. Migrants are poorer than natives since they are relatively unskilled. to migrants. y N >y>y M . namely. the same approach could be extended to consider alternative agenda. is driven by the benefits and costs associated with this decision. in our oneperiod framework the distinction between different ways to acquire citizenship becomes irrelevant. and also implies some duties. since political rights can be viewed as an instrument through which migrants could achieve broader political. First. A few warnings are in order. namely. when considering the decision to grant citizenship. A native voter. while in practice citizenship acquisition implies a larger set of rights.
Assume initially 12 Page 14 . We also assume that income distribution is skewed to the right for each group. Both natives and migrants derive utility from consumption of a private good. and a public good. such that 0 < τ < 1. namely. The tax rate is set through a political choice under majority voting. median income is lower than average income both for natives and migrants. Both groups pay taxes. and thus for the economy as a whole. c i . Each enfranchised individual casts a vote on the tax rate. according to u i =c i + λg (1) where λ is a positive preference parameter. Tax revenues are used by the government to finance the public good according to the following balanced budget constraint: g = τy − τ 2 2 y (2) where the second term captures tax collection costs. according to a proportional income tax rate τ. as in Meltzer and Richard (1981). g.N + M P y M is the economy-wide average income.
The cost enters the individual budget constraint as follows: c i ≤ (1 − τ)y i −k (4) where y i denotes individual income. reflecting the possibility that their disenfranchisement can lead to social unrest and even violence. according to k=K+h M P (3) where K reflects the degree of cultural inclusiveness and h > 0. Equivalently.that only natives are citizens and are therefore allowed to vote. The expression for the indirect utility function of a native voter with income y N i is given by v N i = (1 − τ)y N i − k + λ(τ − τ 2 2 . as captured. by a jus soli tradition. Assume also that society bears a cost k for the exclusion of migrants from citizenship. The cost is also affected by factors that determine the degree of inclusiveness of a country's culture. for instance. This cost increases with the share of migrants over population. k could enter directly the utility function.
according to which the equilibrium tax rate is the preferred tax rate of the native median voter with income y N ∗ . The native median voter could avoid the cost k by granting citizenship to the migrants and thus accepting the tax rate that would prevail under universal enfranchisement. which is given by . which is measured by the ratio of native median income over the economywide average income. since migrants also pay taxes. To be noticed is that under our assumptions about income distribution it is not necessarily the case that y N∗ y < 1. according to τ N ∗ =1− 1 λ y N ∗ y (6) The level of the tax rate increases with the intensity of the preference for public goods and with inequality. We can therefore apply the median voter theorem.which implies that the tax rate is going to be positive only if y N∗ y < λ.)y (5) which is single-peaked with respect to the tax rate.
it follows that τ N ∗ <τ ∗ . given our assumptions on income distribution. he has to pay more taxes but k is avoided. he has to face the cost k. The native median voter faces a simple set of costs and benefits when considering the decision to grant citizenship.τ ∗ =1− 1 λ y ∗ y (7) 13 Page 15 where y ∗ is the economy-wide median income. It follows that the native median voter decides to grant citizenship to migrants if and only if . the tax rate chosen by the native median voter is lower than the tax that applies under universal suffrage. If migrants vote. namely. The difference between τ N ∗ and τ ∗ increases with the income gap between natives and migrants and with the share of migrants over population. the latter is certainly positive. Since y N ∗ >y ∗ . If migrants cannot vote. but can enjoy a smaller tax. In particular.
the fiscal gain also increases with the income gap between natives and migrants.(1 − τ N ∗ )y N ∗ − k + λ(τ N ∗ − τ N ∗ 2 2 )y ≤ (1 − τ ∗ )y N ∗ + λ(τ ∗ − τ ∗2 2 )y (8) where following (5) we find on the left hand side his indirect utility function when migrants cannot vote and on the right hand side his indirect utility function when migrants can vote. Both the disenfranchisement cost and the fiscal gain associated with the no-franchise status quo increase in the share of migrants over the population. Even if the model is static. Besides. we can think of its dynamic implications in terms of a sequence . while the cost increases with the degree of inclusiveness K of the country's culture.
it follows that jus sanguinis countries will be more reluctant to change. The predictions so far obtained from the model indicate that a decision to extend citizenship and the associated voting rights is facilitated by a smaller income gap between natives and migrants and by a larger degree of inclusiveness of a country's culture. If we interpret a jus sanguinis tradition as a low degree of inclusiveness and thus a low cost of exclusion. since it is the share of migrants over population that matters. If. the economy is shocked by an increase of the migrants share. When the status quo is a jus soli regulation. or equivalently a particularly generous naturalization policy. since a higher share increases 14 Page 16 both the cost and the fiscal gain of disenfranchisement. generating a trade off. due to a large inflow. To be noticed is that a given stock of migrants has a stronger impact on countries with a relatively small native population. Finally. Together with the ethnic natives. migrants who are already in the country and have thus become citizens are simply to be considered as natives themselves. it can also encompass restriction. While the present formulation of the model is designed to establish conditions for extension of citizenship rights to migrants. The net effect will depend on which factor is stronger. the effect of an increase in the share of migrants is potentially ambiguous. they will decide whether or not restricting the current regulation taking into account the incoming waves of immigrants and following the simple logic previously illustrated.of repeated decisions. . the median voter will respond taking into considerations all the channels involved and this may result in an adaptation of the regulation. following a sequence of stationary decisions.
Third. we can interpret our tax as a life-long contribution. Second. as captured by λ. the associated tax rate will be higher than otherwise. While our one-period model cannot explicitly reflect these aspects. the impact of the size of government on citizenship laws can be captured by assuming that different countries exhibit different preference parameters toward government. which is higher for a migrant. First. the level of democracy can influence the outcome since it implies a constraint on the political rights of the natives themselves. If only rich natives are allowed to vote. at any given level of income. which can be modelled with an income franchise requirement. could make an open citizenship policy more costly. is subject to uncertainty. 15 Page 17 . demographic aspects could be considered by assuming that the migrants' younger average age implies a larger ability to contribute to the welfare state. border instability could be captured in a version of the model where the size of the native population. we should therefore expect a negative impact of the size of government on the degree of inclusiveness of citizenship laws. Empirically.The basic model can be extended to consider several other potentially relevant factors. The testable implication is that the decision to grant citizenship is positively influenced by the domestic level of democracy. thus amplifying the tax cost which follows the decision to allow migrants to vote. by increasing the tax differential. Thus a relatively large government size. and thus the population share of migrants. Fourth. This should facilitate the decision to grant them citizenship and implies that countries with a relatively old native population should be particularly sensitive to these considerations and thus display a more open attitude.
the share of migrants has a potentially ambiguous impact on the natives' decision to extend citizenship and voting right to migrants. a high level of democracy. to introduce a random component in the model should affect the voting decision by reducing the tax rate.Indeed. The Data: Citizenship Laws of the World We compile a dataset of citizenship laws across the countries of the world for the postwar period. Citizenship at Birth We attribute to each country an appropriate code for citizenship laws in 2001. and the survey in Weil (2001). The sources for this directory were Embassies. when the national border is unstable. for the native median voter. of letting migrants vote. the main problem is to establish who can be considered as a native. and a large native population. We supplement this information with additional one from the CIA World Factbook (2002). a stable national border. and the Department of State. so that . the Library of Congress. The principal focus of our codification is citizenship acquisition at birth. a relatively old native population. but we also collect information about naturalization requirements. a small welfare state. 5. We take 1948 as the starting point. but it also increases the cost associated with their exclusion. a relatively high income level of the migrants. which provides synopses of the citizenship laws currently practiced in 190 countries. since it increases the tax disadvantage. To summarize. even though there were nearly no reforms in citizenship laws during the first half of the century. 5. The principal source for the information we codify is a directory published by the Investigations Service of the United States Office of Personnel Management in 2001. Under standard risk aversion behavior. we expect the natives' decision to be positively influenced by an inclusive national culture. the United Nations High Commission for Refugees (2003). Moreover.1. 1975 and at the beginning of the postwar period.
despite the occurrence of major historical events such as World War I. For 1948. which gained independence from the British and French administration in the 1943-1948 period. and countries subject to full jus soli (Group 3). Indeed. 1975 and 2001. common law tradition. By coding citizenship laws in the intermediate year 1975. 4 Our dataset includes those 162 countries for which we were able to collect information on both original . we treat the specific legal provisions regulating access to citizenship in 1948 as predetermined. This approach is justified by our primary interest in the potential impact of citizenship laws on immigrants. 16 Page 18 the analysis of legal origins in La Porta et al. (1998). A mixed regime includes elements of both jus soli and jus sanguinis. rather than emigrants. we divide the postwar period into two subperiods of equal length. In our classification we focus on the presence of jus soli elements in a country's legislation. countries that apply a mixed regime (Group 2). we include the postwar decolonization phase with the exemption of the Middle East. the subsequent half century did not see further evolution. while the 19th century witnessed a first wave of adaptation of citizenship legislation from the civil vs. we divide countries into three groups: countries subject to jus sanguinis without any jus soli element (Group 1). at least relative to the subsequent developments that are the focus of the present investigation.most of the legislation in place in 1948 had actually been developed much earlier. 3 As in 3 By treating 1948 as the initial year.
and current citizenship laws, and for which migration data were available for the postwar period. 5 INSERT TABLE 1 The differential patterns of evolution that citizenship laws generate in 1948, 1975 and 2001 are summarized by the transition matrices in Table 1, which reveals considerable variations both across countries and over time. The table shows that in 1948 jus soli was the rule in about 47% (namely, 76 out of 162) of the countries, while jus sanguinis dominated in 41% (namely, 67 out of 162), and the mixed regime was adopted in the remaining 12% (19 countries). Among the countries that were under jus soli in 1948, we find the United States, Canada, all the Oceanian countries, most of Latin America, within Africa and Asia the British and Portuguese colonies, within Europe the UK, Ireland and Portugal. On the other hand, in 1948 jus sanguinis predominated in most of Europe, including its Eastern part. As explained in Section 3, France was unique in its early choice of a mixed regime. Since we 4 For details on our classification criteria see the Data Appendix, part A. 5 For details on migration data see the Data Appendix, part C. 17
treat colonial territories as subject to the metropolitan countries' regime until independence, the group applying the mixed regime in 1948 includes France and its colonies. By 1975, 31% (namely, 50 out of 162) of the countries had jus soli, 62% (101) jus sanguinis, and 7% (11) a mixed regime. The main event justifying this evolution is decolonization, with many former colonies switching to jus sanguinis, from jus soli when the UK and Portugal
were the metropolitan country, and from the mixed regime in the case of France (see Section 3). As of 2001, 24% (namely, 39 out of 162) of the countries apply jus soli, 54% (88) jus sanguinis, and 22% (35) a mixed regime. It has mostly been the adaptation of the legislation of many European countries, relaxing pure jus sanguinis in favor of a mixed regime, that explains the pattern observed for the second subperiod. Among the countries that still adhere to the jus soli principle in 2001 are the United States, Canada, New Zealand, and Ireland (which - however - recently introduced restrictions to jus soli with a June 2004 referendum). The United Kingdom and Australia, on the contrary, no longer adhere to it and now adopt a mixed regime. Overall, jus sanguinis is currently the most common regime, with 69% of the countries in Africa, 83% in Asia, and 41% (down from 88%) in Europe. The growing group where a mix of provisions is applied is particularly well-represented in Europe, with 56% of the European countries including the formerly jus soli United Kingdom. On the other hand, jus soli predominates in the Americas, with 89% of the countries in Latin America, and the entire North America (namely, the U. S. and Canada). Table 1 reveals three different patterns of transitional dynamics: stability, switch, and convergence. Stable countries lie along the diagonal. Looking at the 1948 to 2001 transition, we see that a large fraction (28%, namely, 46 out of 162) have started and ended as jus sanguinis. In other words, it is 69% (namely, 46 out of 67) of the originally jus sanguinis countries that have remained so. By contrast, 22% (36 out of 162) are steadily jus soli countries: this means that only 47% (36 out of 76) of the originally jus soli countries have not changed their policies. Off diagonal, there is a sizeable proportion of countries (19%, or 31 out of 162) that have switched from jus soli to sanguinis, by completely eliminating
birthplace as a criterion: most of them - as mentioned - are former African colonies of the UK and Portugal, which made this radical choice at independence. Looking at the two 18
subperiods, we see most of these switches occur between 1948 and 1975. Finally, there is evidence of a process of convergence to a soli/sanguinis mix, which affects 18% of the countries (29 out of 162, of which 20 converge from jus sanguinis by adding jus soli elements, while 9 converge from jus soli by restricting it) and intensifies between 1975 and 2001. INSERT TABLE 2 In Table 2 we present further information on citizenship laws evolution by reporting changes in citizenship laws, organized by original laws. Over the 1948-2001 period, 74 countries (46%) have gone through a change in the laws. Of these, 51 have changed toward jus sanguinis and 23 toward jus soli, while 45 changes have occurred in the first subperiod and 33 in the second. 6 In particular, in the first subperiod, the majority of the countries that went through a change (29, or 64%) were originally jus soli. As mentioned, this pattern is determined largely by the behavior of former colonies. In the second subperiod, the majority of the countries that went through a change (20, or 61%) were originally jus sanguinis, most of which adopting a more open legislation. The above discussion suggests a relevant role of border stability. To investigate this issue, we introduce a set of dummies capturing a country's history of border changes. In particular, we distinguish across three different causes of border instability: decolonization, Berlin wall, other border changes. 7 If we compare the transitional dynamics of the full sample with those
of the subsample of countries that did not go through a border change, we count for the latter a much smaller proportion of switches from jus soli to jus sanguinis. This pattern confirms the relevance of border changes, especially those due to decolonization. INSERT TABLE 3 Summary statistics for our citizenship laws dataset are reported in Table 3. The correlation between 1948 and 2001 citizenship laws is 0.42, which points to some persistence, as confirmed by the even higher correlation between 1948 and 1975 (0.60) and 1975 and 2001 laws (0.81). 6 A few countries went through more than one change. 7 The Data Appendix, part B describes how the three border change dummies are constructed. 19
5.2. Citizenship by Naturalization and the Citizenship Policy Index Naturalization policies are also relevant to the issues at hand. Indeed, to facilitate naturalization for immigrant parents may represent a substitute mechanism to attribute citizenship to children born in jus sanguinis countries. Besides, the general attitude revealed by a country's regulation of citizenship at birth may be reflected in its naturalization laws, with jus soli countries traditionally making naturalization much easier, at least for resident aliens. Within jus sanguinis countries, naturalization requirements again tend to be correlated with the revisions introduced for citizenship at birth. Basic rules for naturalization may include a period of residence, renunciation of other citizenship, familiarity with the language and customs of the country, and the availability of adequate means of support. We code naturalization only for 2001, on the basis of the available information on 142 of our 162 countries. We classify countries on the basis of the number of years of residence
required for naturalization. To construct the index.37. 8 In our dataset 62 countries (namely. we treat citizenship laws in 2001 as an ordinal variable. 10 8 We do not consider naturalization by marriage. 6 to 14 years. 10 For European countries only. even though data on naturalization are only available for the year 2001 and for a subset of countries. by associating jus soli elements with lower number of years of residence required for naturalization. while Baubock et al. 9 Dual citizenship provisions constitute another potentially relevant aspect of citizenship policy. Alternative ways to define naturalization classes yielded similar conclusions. 9 Table 3 reports summary statistics for naturalization and the citizenship policy index. We construct an index of citizenship policy defined on the 0-1 interval. The corrected Cronbach's alpha of the indicator is 0. since it is heavily dependent on family law. 44%) require five years of residence. by constructing four classes (more than 14 years.54. 4 years or fewer). 20 Page 22 . We then combine the information we collected on citizenship at birth and naturalization within a single measure. while 46% require more time and only 10% are more open. 5 years. (2006) collect statistics on acquisition of nationality. which can be explained by the fact that the correlation between citizenship laws and naturalization is only 0. which can be considered a relatively open attitude. but we do not use this variable due to limited information. the British Council has compiled an index of civic citizenship and inclusion (see British Council Brussels 2005).
The Determinants of Citizenship Laws 6. and jus sanguinis with minimal inclusiveness. and 3 if the country has a jus soli regime. 2 if the country has a mixed regime. with jus soli being associated with maximal. we also consider religion and ethnic diversity. in principle those regressors that affect the probability of being a jus soli country may not always have the opposite effect on the probability of being a jus sanguinis country.1. this choice does not impose any ex ante ordering among the three regimes. Empirical Specification In bringing our theoretical model to the data. we select the following variables. Further discussion on this point is postponed to the sub-section on robustness.6. . for example. The dependent variable is citizenship laws. and the age structure of the population. Border stability is measured through our border changes dummies. The empirical investigation is performed using a panel sample which includes information on two cross sections of 162 countries: the first cross section refers to the 1950-1975 subperiod. In fact. or else may not have any effect at all (and vice versa). the size of government. Moreover. while we cannot gauge the impact of the income gap between natives and migrants due to lack of data. Among regressors. which is categorical and can take three values: 1 if the country has a jus sanguinis regime. To control for other cultural characteristics. We also control for countries with a particularly small population size. we employ measures of migration. in order to investigate the determinants of citizenship laws evolution in the postwar period. We interpret the presence of a jus soli tradition as an indicator of the degree of inclusiveness of national culture. an ordering by increasing inclusiveness toward immigrants. We use a multinomial logit specification to achieve maximum generality.
S it is a dummy for the presence of jus sanguinis in country i at the beginning of each subperiod. the multinomial logit model we run has the following form: L it = a + bM it + cS it + dM it S it + eT t +Z 0 it f+ it . M it S . In the full specification we present.the second cross section to the 1976-2000 subperiod.2 (where t = 1 refers to the 1950-1975 period and t = 2 refers 21 Page 23 to the 1976-2000 period)... 11 In specification (9).. L it represents citizenship laws in country i at the end of period t.162 and t = 1. M it is migration stock as a percentage of the population in country i at the beginning of period t. (9) with i = 1.. a is a constant term.
it is the interaction between the previous two variables. we will organize our comments in terms of the effects of each of our regressors on the probability of adopting either a mixed or a jus soli regime instead of jus sanguinis. Migration (M . regarding the potential role of the above mentioned factors. namely. starting with the variables we consider focal to our analysis. Southern European and small countries. This follows the specification of our multinomial logit estimates. consistent with the model previously outlined. 12 The set of explanatory variables Z it can be divided into two groups. the share of young in the population. immigration and legal tradition. The second group of explanatory variables includes the size of government as a share of GDP. The Data Appendix collects information on the definitions and sources of all variables we employed. and a measure of democracy. proxies for cultural characteristics such as religious affiliation and ethnolinguistic fractionalization. T t is a period dummy. Throughout the following. The first group includes dummies capturing the country's geopolitical position. and it is an error term. where we take jus sanguinis as the reference category. Table 4 presents their summary statistics. Within this group we consider the border changes dummies and dummies for Latin American. INSERT TABLE 4 We can now suggest a number of specific hypotheses. Z it is a vector of additional explanatory variables.
L i1 and L i2 are citizenship laws in country i in 1975 and 2001. S i1 = 1 if country i has jus sanguinis in 1948 and S i2 = 1 if country i has jus sanguinis in in 1975. for comparison purposes. 12 In particular. the available data refer to the stock in 11 We also run multinomial logit models for two types of more parsimonious specifications. 13 while for the second they refer to the stock in 1980.it ) is measured by the stock of migrants in percent of the population at the beginning of each subperiod. since it is unlikely that stocks evaluated at the beginning of the period can be affected by subsequent changes in citizenship laws. 22 Page 24 1960. we avoid any potential endogeneity problem of migration with respect to citizenship laws. M i1 is migration stock in country i in 1960 and M i2 is migration stock in country i in 1980. By entering the migrant stock near the beginning of each period. T 1 = 0 and T 2 = 1. For the first subperiod. respectively. 14 A positive coefficient .
its coefficients would indicate that those jus sanguinis countries facing high migration tend to add jus soli elements. On the other hand. if border stability really counts as a prerequisite for the introduction of automatic birthrights for the immigrants. thus suggesting a particularly significant role of this initial legislation. As explained in Section 3. a positive coefficient for the mixed regime would suggest convergence toward the intermediate group. The interaction between the jus sanguinis dummy and migration should reveal additional information: if positive. Turning to our geopolitical dummies. the coefficients of the interaction could also turn out to be negative since. we should expect negative signs for the coefficients for our border change dummies. the natives' reaction could be a conservative one. To assess the total impact of migration for jus sanguinis countries we also need to take into account the interaction's coefficients. A crucial control in our regressions. and similarly for the jus soli regime. We measure it with a dummy for countries that apply jus sanguinis at the beginning of each subperiod (S it ). We select this dummy because jus sanguinis is the most persistent of the three regimes. most of Latin America 13 . thus confirming persistence of the original laws. We introduce the Latin America dummy to capture the peculiarity of this continent's experience. in the presence of a large stock of migrants. A negative value of the dummy's coefficient for a mixed and jus soli regime would imply that jus sanguinis countries are less likely to end up in the mixed and jus soli groups.for the mixed regime would indicated that high migration pushes toward it rather than toward jus sanguinis. In particular. is the legal tradition in the matter of citizenship. as previously discussed. as suggested by some of the political theories introduced in Section 1.
part C. Finally. so its current position is not determined by postwar developments and in particular by its postwar migration experience. it should exhibit a positive coefficient for this kind of legislation.1. we should expect negative signs for this dummy's coefficients. see the Data Appendix.3.Earlier data are not available. with a disproportionately small impact on their legislation. more expensive and more redistributive structure would represent an obstacle to automatic citizenship granting to the children of relatively poor immigrants. with most of the revision to the legislation toward mixed regimes occurring in the past 15 years or so. we would found negative coefficients. On the other hand. For Southern Europe. 14 Even taking into account the anticipation of future changes of citizenship laws in making migration decisions. The size of government is meant to proxy for the nature of the welfare state: if a thicker. since migration data reveal that countries with a small population tend to have large and erratic figures. where alternative measures of migration are introduced. 23 Page 25 adopted jus soli long before our sample period. If indeed the behavior of Latin America differs significantly from the rest of the sample in being associated with a higher probability of adopting jus soli. if young immigrants could offer a solution to domestic demographic imbalances. the endogeneity of our migration measure is ruled out by the fact that such changes had been extremely rare during the first half of the 20th century. we would find that countries with a higher share of young in . we should expect a positive coefficient for the mixed regime since these countries have been experiencing quickly increasing migration during the second subperiod. The potential endogeneity of migration is further addressed in sub-sub-section 6.
The Latin America dummy is positively associated with the Catholic share (0. The dummy reflecting jus sanguinis as the initial law is negatively correlated with decolonization (-0. beside legal tradition.64).35).36). Citizenship laws are also significantly 24 Page 26 correlated with migration. Political rights tend to be low in countries with high ethnolinguistic fractionalization (-0. The establishment of a consolidated democracy . Current citizenship laws. these stylized facts are in line with previous research and economic intuition.should exert a positive effect on the probability of a jus soli legislation even though even in a democratic country hostility toward the assimilation of outsiders may persist for a protracted period of time.15). is highly correlated with the initial citizenship laws as identified by the jus sanguinis dummy (-0.measured by the political rights variable . the small country dummy. Overall. . INSERT TABLE 5 Pairwise correlations among our dependent and independent variables are presented in Table 5.52). the Catholic share.43). The share of young in population is positively associated with migration stocks (0. the dependent variable.31) and Latin America (-0. thus displaying negative coefficients. while its correlation with the civil law dummy is much lower (-0. In an effort to capture additional dimensions of cultural differences.total population would be less prone to adopt jus soli elements. political rights. and ethnolinguistic fractionalization. we include the share of Catholics in total population and an index of ethnolinguistic fractionalization. Pairwise correlations between all our independent variables are not reported for brevity and can be summarized as follows.
which includes the dummies. This means that high migration and a jus sanguinis origin decrease the probability of applying a mixed or a jus soli legislation rather than jus sanguinis. and that in the second subperiod the probability of applying a mixed or jus soli legislation increases. The table reports three different specifications. 6. The period .2. Hence. which includes only the core variables. In particular. migration and jus sanguinis as initial citizenship law. the jus sanguinis origin still exerts a negative impact on the probability of applying a mixed or jus soli regime. Finally. we find that the core variables are all significant. migration and jus sanguinis display negative coefficients for both the mixed regime and jus soli. INSERT TABLE 6 Starting with the core specification (a). relative to jus sanguinis. the results reported in the table indicate the impact of the explanatory variable on the probability of choosing either the mixed or the jus soli regimes. namely. which adds to (b) the other potentially relevant economic and institutional regressors. Multinomial logit (a) is the core specification. plus the period dummy. while migration 25 Page 27 only remains significantly negative for the probability of applying a mixed regime. Results The results of our multinomial logits are presented in Table 6.It is also clear that several of our independent variables are closely interrelated and that it may be difficult to disentangle their specific effect on the evolution of citizenship laws. multinomial logit (c) is our full specification. Jus sanguinis is the reference category for all the results shown. which adds to (a) the dummies we discussed above. In specification (b). Multinomial logit (b) is an expanded specification. while both coefficients are positive for the period dummy.
15 The interaction term between migration and jus sanguinis origin is significant and positive for both the mixed regime and jus soli. confirming that Southern European countries have a higher probability of becoming mixed. However. As expected. the total effect of migration becomes negligible. uncovering a tendency for countries with a jus sanguinis origin which are exposed to high migration to add jus soli elements. the decolonization dummy displays two negative coefficients. since these countries have a higher probability of applying this regime. The share of Catholics and ethnolinguistic fractionalization are both insignificant. a jus sanguinis origin and the period dummy are confirmed. while a high degree of democracy . The size of government has a positive and significant coefficient for the probability of applying a jus soli regime. Latin America has a positive coefficient for jus soli. while the small country dummy now reveals a negative impact on the probability of applying a mixed regime. if one evaluates the coefficients of migration and of the interaction together. having gone through a decolonization border change negatively affects the probability of applying either a mixed or jus soli regime. namely. Finally.dummy is significantly positive only for the probability of a mixed regime. The role of the Latin America and Southern Europe dummies is confirmed. in the full specification (c). In this extended version the coefficient for decolonization loses significance. in support of the hypothesis that countries with a relatively old population are more likely to choose mixed and jus soli regimes. while the share of young in the population exerts a negative impact. the impact of migration. the strength of this tendency is questioned by the fact that. South Europe has a positive coefficient for the mixed regime. The small country dummy is not significant in this specification.
7%. while an increase in migration of one percentage point increases the probability of being a jus sanguinis country by about 2. an increase in migration of one percentage point for a jus sanguinis country decreases the probability of being jus sanguinis by about 2. 17 Moreover. 16 For the full specification (c).3%. 16 For all three specifications. The marginal effects also allow to quantify the impact of our regressors. we verified that our results are not driven by outliers. Besides. consistently with the positive coefficients for jus soli and a mixed regime in Table 6. 17 The estimated marginal effects are calculated by holding all the independent variables at their mean 26 Page 28 decolonization reveals that this regressor retains a significantly negative impact on the probability of jus soli.5% increase due to direct effect of migration. to be evaluated together with the 2. having gone through a decolonization border change decreases the probability of being jus soli by about 14%.5%. In particular. .positively affects the probability of applying either a mixed or jus soli regime. the marginal effect of 15 For both multinomial logit (a) and (b) we obtain the same results using a balanced sample composed by the 224 countries which constitute the reference sample for the estimation of our full specification. inspection of the marginal coefficients in Table 7 confirms that migration increases the probability of jus sanguinis and decreases that of a mixed regime and that the interaction between jus sanguinis and migration is negative. and decreases the probability of having a mixed regime by 2.
our results indicate that migration.48. due to the fact that all countries identified by them do not exhibit enough variability with respect to the dependent variable. the original laws and our geopolitical dummies exert a significant impact on current citizenship laws. Quantitative and qualitative development indicators such as income per capita and inequality could reveal if a richer. and also with democracy and fractionalization. However. demographics and democracy also contribute to their determination. we cannot include in the regressions the socialist and oil dummies. a dummy for oil countries could account for the fact that most of them have been experiencing huge immigration which has had no impact on their still very restrictive legislation (often based on Islamic family law). 19 INSERT TABLE 7 Overall. For dichotomous independent variables the marginal effect is the change from 0 to 1 holding all other variables at their means. and that other factors such as government size. In levels. Moreover. as well as the Berlin wall and the other border changes dummies. more equal country is more prone to adopting jus soli elements. . 18 The correlation between Berlin wall and socialist is 0. In fact they fail to add any further significance to the previous results. so they are unlikely to add independent explanatory power to a regression. both per capita GDP and the Gini index of inequality tend to be associated with migration.We also consider additional covariates that have often been found significant in related research on the determinants of institutions. 18 However. A dummy for socialist countries could instead work as an alternative to our Berlin wall border change dummy.
In addition. because liberal countries tend to restrict while restrictive countries tend to resist innovation. However. Indeed. countries affected by Berlin wall have always applied jus sanguinis. this could be explained by the fact many of the countries with extended welfare systems may favor immigration because of their demographic crisis. the welfare burden proves not to be an obstacle for a jus soli legislation. even though the process of transplantation can prove discontinuous in the case of former colonies. as predicted by the model. On the one hand. On the other hand. Therefore. the evidence does not the hypothesis of convergence toward a mix of provisions suggested by some political theories (see Section 1).19 For example. the legal tradition interacts with the way countries react to migration in a complex way. for countries with a jus sanguinis origin which have experienced more immigration. countries with a jus soli origin react to increasing migration by adding jus sanguinis elements. Overall. on balance. 27 Page 29 particular. our results suggest that migration pushes national legislations in the direction of jus sanguinis. demo- . there is evidence of a tendency toward adding jus soli provisions so that. in jus sanguinis countries the impact of migration turns out to be negligible. The presence of countervailing forces highlighted by the model is therefore confirmed by our findings. we show that the legal tradition tends to affect the current legislation persistently. Contrary to the model's implications. However. this correlation covers a more complex pattern which can be revealed once the interaction between migration and the legal tradition in the matter of citizenship is considered. not jus soli.
the impact we observe for the size of government could be explained by the fact that it proxies for European-style. in particular as far as the impact of migration is concerned. our migration measure was chosen to minimize a potential endogeneity bias. Robustness In this section we present a number of alternatives to our benchmark regressions to investigate whether they are robust to different specifications. while cultural traits captured by religious affiliation and ethnolinguistic fractionalization appears to be irrelevant. and provide a deeper understanding of the forces shaping citizenship laws.3.3. When we replace our migrations stocks with average migration flows (computed with reference to each subperiod). . In sum. First.graphic stagnation encourages the adoption of mixed and jus soli regimes. Alternative Specifications We experiment our multinomial logit specifications with alternative covariates. the evidence confirms that a higher degree of democracy is associated with more jus soli elements. Moreover. Finally. our empirical findings match the theoretical insights coming from the model.1. 6. samples and estimation techniques. 21 In the Table Appendix. relative open socialdemocracies. As outlined above. 20 the coefficients for migration turns out to be insignificant in all three specifications. we replace our measure of migration with a range of alternative measures. 28 Page 30 6. This could suggest that migration flows are endogenous with respect to citizenship laws. Further tests involve alternative measures of migration stocks.
Some differences emerge in the coefficients for migration and its interaction with jus sanguinis. and the 1960-70 and 1980-90 averages. for the first and the second subperiod we select the years 1970 and 1990. respectively. 21 Namely. with the latter losing significance.45. respectively. 23 If the coefficients of the two alternative dummies were the same. Results from this instrumented specification are similar to those presented in Table 6. our beginning-of-period migration stocks prove to be the most adequate measures of the role of migration. To sum up. 24 When we replace the jus sanguinis with the civil law dummy (see Table A. respectively. column (1) presents the full specification with the 1960-70 and 1980-90 average migration stock. one could conclude that our detailed codification of the original citizenship laws does not add much to what we can already learn from a country’s broader legal tradition. and citizenship laws could be viewed as part of migration policy. the influence of the legal tradition can also be analyzed through a dummy capturing the presence of a civil law tradition.1. 22 Since jus sanguinis and jus soli are in principle closely linked to the civil and common systems of laws.Table A.1. . column (2)). as possible alternatives. the simultaneous determination of citizenship laws and migration does represent a concern when we enter within-the-period data on migration instead of beginning-of-period data. the latter turns out to be substantially less significant and reduces the 20 Migration stocks and flows show a correlation of 0. Since in the postwar period migration has been highly regulated by policy in most receiving countries. 22 We also experiment with a specification entering the migrant stock in 1960 for both subperiods.
we find that its coefficient is insignificant. Alternative Estimation Techniques Alternative estimation techniques broadly confirm the same results from Table 6. which we assume here to be ordered by increasing inclusiveness.2 and A.23 The dummy is equal to 1 if a country belongs to the civil law tradition and to 0 if a country belongs to common law. These results are reported in Table A. We also replace our decolonization dummy with a dummy for British or Portuguese colonies (identifying those countries that were characterized by a jus soli legislation during the colonial period). we assume that jus sanguinis corresponds to minimal and jus soli to maximal inclusiveness. and with the subSaharan Africa dummy. possibly because flows are multicollinear with respect to stocks and endogenous with respect to the dependent variable. The correlation between civil law and jus sanguinis is 0. namley.35. When we replace the Southern Europe dummy with migration flows.3. since it is the quickly increasing second-subperiod immigration which determines the peculiar behavior of this region.2. suggesting that civil law is a much weaker predictor of current citizenship laws than the original citizenship laws. 6. 24 The correlation between the two dummies is 0. We also run ordered logit regressions where current citizenship laws are explicitly treated as an ordinal variable. In particular. an (unreported) alternative multinomial probit model delivers the same qualitative results.3.35. Our previous conclusions . 25 but both alternatives are associated with insignificant coefficients. 29 Page 31 significance of most other regressors.
an alternative ordered logit regression also achieves much weaker results than in the panel. 1950-1975 and 1976-2000. we run a test for the parallel regression assumption. Our multinomial logit specification is hence superior to an ordered logit specification. with migration and a jus sanguinis origin exerting a negative impact on the application of jus soli. For the same cross section.are confirmed. 27 The results for this cross section reveal a much lower level of significance for several covariates. 28 The same applies to alternative variants with a cross section over each subperiod. while migration stock refers to 1960 and jus sanguinis in 1948 is the initial law.31). Alternative Sample Criteria We also run multinomial logit regressions on a cross-sectional sample composed by country averages over the 1950-2000 period.3.3. namely.30) and for sub-Saharan Africa (0. The test is an approximate likelihood-ratio test of proportionality of odds across response categories. In all cases. the test provides evidence that the parallel regression assumption has been violated. 30 Page 32 with the initial laws. 26 6. 29 while ordinary least squares regressions with our citizenship policy index in 2001 and an indexed version of . 26 For all specifications. 27 Here the dependent variable is citizenship laws in 2001. in particular for migration and for its interaction 25 Decolonization shows a significant correlation with the dummies for British or Portuguese colony (0.
7. and 1 if the country changes its laws toward jus soli.2001 citizenship laws as alternative dependent variables both show an insignificant coefficient for migration (see Table A.1. we developed an alternative specification which is designed to capture more specifically the determinants of a change in the laws. Empirical Specification In the alternative specification. For our panel.4). An Alternative Approach: The Determinants of Change in Citizenship Laws In this section we study citizenship laws evolution using an alternative approach which is able to provide additional insights. 30 These results may be due to the fact that a single cross section of countries includes less information than our panel. we run a multinomial logit model of the following form for its full specification: V it = α + βM it + γT t +Z 0 it δ+η it . the dependent variable is categorical and can take three values: -1 if the country changes its laws toward jus sanguinis. 0 if no change occurs. Z it contains all the variables previ- . (10) where α is a constant term and η it is an error term. 7. While specification (9) focuses on current citizenship laws as the dependent variable.
where the reference category is no change. the results reported in the table indicate the impact of the explanatory variable on the probability of choosing either restriction toward jus sanguinis (first column) or expansion toward jus soli (second column). The period dummy indicates that the second subperiod witnesses an increase in the probability to expand. its interaction with migration. Decolonization and Southern Europe exert a positive impact on change in both directions. Results Regression results for the multinomial logit model are presented in Table 8. jus sanguinis as the initial citizenship law. except for those which present zero-cell problems. more significantly so for restriction for the case of decolonization. showing that migration is again negative correlated with the dependent variable. Pairwise correlations among our new dependent variable.ously described. while the opposite holds for Southern Europe. The size of government's negative coefficient . 30 The same qualitative results arise in an unreported regression with naturalization in 2001 as dependent variable. Hence. with similar results. Migration has a positive impact on the probability to restrict and a non significant impact on the probability to expand. 29 We apply to the above results the Cook's distance method. and the Latin America dummy. namely. to show that they are not driven by outliers. changes in citizenship laws. 7. 31 Page 33 the independent variables are presented in Table 5.2. and with average migration flows. and 28 We also experiment with migration stocks in 1970 and 1980.
these results are complementary to those of Section 6 since they highlight which . When we replace our decolonization dummy with the dummy for British or Portuguese colonies. meaning that relatively old countries are more likely to liberalize their legislation. while again a relatively young population provokes resistance to extension. INSERT TABLE 9 As for specification (9). we perform a full set of robustness checks for (10). it emerges as a factor that facilitates change toward sanguinis. Alternative measures of migration confirm an irrelevant impact on change in the laws. which reports the marginal effects for the multinomial logit specification. The Gini index once again fails to add any significance. Ethnic diversity emerges as a significant factor of change toward jus sanguinis. For instance. The subSaharan Africa dummy is not significant when entered instead of decolonization. INSERT TABLE 8 Table 9 reports the marginal coefficients for the regressions in Table 8 and confirms the restrictive impact of migration emerging from Table 8. due to the removal of the Latin America dummy which comprises several former Portuguese colonies. Overall. the alternative dummy is again significant. which is consistent with the fact that. 31 Moreover. in Table 9. the implications of Table 9 are in line with those of Table 7.for restriction confirms that this factor actually prevents it. 32 Page 34 impact on expansion. in Table 7 decolonization exerts a significantly negative impact on the probability of having a jus soli legislation. while per capita GDP reveals a significant 31 The estimated marginal effects are calculated as explained in footnote 17.
Therefore. Moreover.factors have induced the observed evolution of the legislation. older population and more extended political rights tend to be associated with more diffused elements of jus soli. . Our investigation reveals that migration has had an overall negative impact on liberalization of the legislation and the adoption of jus soli elements. migration is confirmed as a factor that favors change toward restriction. while in jus sanguinis countries the impact of migration has been negligible. we found that indeed citizenship laws have responded endogenously and systematically to a number of economic and institutional factors. particularly in connection with the decolonization phase. the legal tradition has affected the way countries have responded to migration. We developed a simple median voter model where citizenship rights are granted by natives to migrants on the basis of the associated benefits and costs. as reflected by the original citizenship legislation. jus soli countries have reacted to increasing migration through restriction. In particular. on the basis of a new dataset we compiled. In bringing the model to the data. the evidence does not support the hypothesis of convergence toward a mixed regime that includes both jus soli and jus sanguinis elements. In particular. reflecting discontinuities for the transplanting process of legal institutions. Border instability emerges as a decisive factor in shaping citizenship laws. The model predicts that migration has a potentially ambiguous impact on the legislation and that this impact is also affected by cultural factors including a country's degree of inclusiveness. Conclusion We studied the theoretical and empirical determinants of the legal institution of citizenship in the postwar period. Countries with larger welfare systems. 8. for each possible direction of change.
have already been investigated.More generally. we also establish that different institutions are interrelated. This represents another challenge for further research on the process of formation of legal rules and on the impact of institutions on economic outcomes. and women's rights. and where citizenship is not granted due to birth within the country. Our methodology can be extended to the study of other evolving bodies of the law. countries may differ on some . In the application of jus sanguinis. between the public and the private sphere of influence.such as commercial law. and government activities . Further research will study the future evolution of citizenship policy. by using projections of international migration patterns in combination with the available predictions about the future course of democratization and border changes. rules of inheritance. The endogeneity of institutions to economic factors represents a challenge for research aimed at demonstrating that institutions are crucial determinants of economic performances. By showing that citizenship laws are shaped not only by the broader legal origins. Data Appendix A. regardless of the child's actual country of birth. The Citizenship-at-birth Classification Group 1 (jus sanguinis countries): We include countries where citizenship is passed on to a child based upon at least one of the parents being a citizen of that country. citizenship laws can be viewed as a link. such as family law. a clear implication of our investigation is that institutions should not be 33 Page 35 presumed to be exogenous. Citizenship laws are still changing. Finally. within a legal system. labor regulation. but also by other institutions such as the internal system of political rights and the international system of relations as reflected by state borders. Many issues that fall within the former . since they do adapt both to economic and non-economic factors.
the existence of a provision that birth in the country matters for naturalization. the age of maturity) subject to either residence requirements or application. For example. mother's right to transmit citizenship by descent. Group 2 (countries with a mixed regime): We include those countries where elements of jus soli are recognized. the requirement of citizenship for one or both parents. . and the requirement that parents must be citizens other than by descent. residence requirements for parents. A common exception to the general principle of jus sanguinis is automatic citizenship attribution to children of unknown parents. we interpret as an element of jus soli. Since we focus on the presence of jus soli elements in a country's legislation. albeit in a restrictive form. to acquire citizenship at some later point (for example. the relevance of the marital status of the parents. Examples of restrictions are generational requirements limiting the principle of citizenship by descent to the first or second generations of individuals born and residing abroad. Most of these factors depend on the interaction between local family law and citizenship law. Group 3 (jus soli countries): We include those countries where citizenship is automatically granted due to birth within the country. that justifies the inclusion of a country within Group 2. automatic citizenship for the children of those immigrants who were also born in the country). Moreover. a frequent provision that limits jus soli is double jus soli (namely. Another is the ability. our classification does not emphasize how narrowly 34 Page 36 jus sanguinis can be specifically applied to emigrants. for a child born in a country were jus sanguinis prevails. regardless of the parents' citizenship or status.factors. and coexist with varying degrees of jus sanguinis. for example on the father's vs.
and State Creation. State Transformation. from the Polity IV variable CHANGE we record information on four types of events capable of affecting state borders. Clearly. B. residence requirements). and the USSR in 1991. In particular. for example.Normally countries that apply jus soli combine it with jus sanguinis provisions for the children of their citizens born outside of their territory (although limitations to the ability to transmit citizenship acquired in this manner to the next generation usually apply through. for border changes we include a few earlier events occurred in the 1943-1948 period that fit within the phase of post-colonial independence. The countries affected by State Creation are the most numerous. West Germany in 1945. We refer to Bertocchi and Strozzi (2009) for further detail on the data set on citizenship laws. the State Transformation of Germany in 1990. Decolonization. Examples of the events contained in the Polity IV 35 Page 37 (2002) dataset are the State Disintegration of Yugoslavia in 1991.and therefore state borders . and Russia in 1992). Even if we set 1948 as the initial date for our citizenship laws analysis.in the postwar decolonization phase. plus a few additional observations not linked to these two waves. East Germany in 1945. namely. State Disintegration. State Demise. The Border Change Dummies We construct three border change dummies (namely. They include the new countries gaining independence . the State Demise of Germany in 1945. and Other Border Changes) based on data collected from Polity IV (2002). West Germany in 1990. Berlin Wall. We . East Germany in 1990. there is substantial overlap among the observations recorded in the Polity IV dataset. the new countries formed in Europe after the fall of the Berlin wall.
and the unification of Vietnam). and other border changes (identifying countries which went through other types of boundary changes. Berlin wall (identifying countries which went through a post-1989 Berlin wall border change). the separation of Bangladesh from Pakistan counts for two events. occurring again to Germany. namely. C. Net migration flows: International net migration rate. occurring to Germany. Definitions and Sources of Other Covariates Migration stock: International migration stock (% population). 1970. Migration stock is the number of people born in a country other than that in which they live. more than the direction of a change in terms of a country's size. 1980. Likewise. the absence of border changes. On the other hand. The data refer 36 Page 38 to incoming international migrants less outgoing international migrants. The data are taken from United Nations (2003) and are available for 1960. 1990 and 2000. was obtained from the CIA (2002). To be noticed is that the way our variables are coded reflects stability of borders.000 total . we construct our three border change dummies for each period under consideration: Decolonization (identifying countries which went through a post-colonial redefinition of their borders). including refugees.adapt these data to our needs by matching them to the 162 countries appearing in our citizenship laws dataset. For instance. Additional information. when necessary. but also the State Demise of Germany in the same year. the State Transformation of East and West Germany in 1945. because it concerns two countries which are in our sample. we count as a single event. per 1. we treat as another single event. of which examples are the split between Pakistan and Bangladesh. On this basis. the State Transformation of Germany in 1990 and the State Demise of East and West Germany in the same year.
(1999). Small country: Dummy for countries with a population size of less than one million over all available years between 1960 and 1995.population. Angola. The data are taken from United Nations (2005). The data are available over five year intervals from 1950. and Brunei). Catholic share: Percentage of Catholics in 1980. The classification is from UN (2002). British or Portuguese colony: Dummy for countries that were British or Portuguese colonies any time after 1918. among the French. Gini index: Gini index of inequality. Qatar. since they do not present any significant difference for the issue of citizenship. (1999). taken from Freedom House (1996). (1999) introduce a separate class for socialist-law countries. as in Easterly and Kraay (2000). Southern Europe and sub-Saharan Africa: Dummies for countries belonging to Latin America. Southern Europe and subSaharan Africa. The source is the Correlates of War 2 Project (2004). Share of young: Share of young between age 15 and 34 (% population). within the broader civil law tradition. The source is the United Nations (2005). Moreover. taken from Penn World Tables (2002). INSERT TABLE APPENDIX References 37 . (1999). Information is from La Porta et al. Latin America. we assign them to their own class of common or civil law as it prevailed before the communist period. without distinguishing. Ethnolinguistic fractionalization: Composite index of ethnolinguistic fractionalization. taken from Easterly and Levine (1997). and Scandinavian versions. while La Porta et al. taken from La Porta et al. Oil: Dummy for oil countries (OPEC countries plus Oman. Government consumption: Government share of GDP in current prices. We retain only the two main families of common and civil law. GDP per capita: Logarithm of real GDP per capita at current international prices. with projections until 2050. Socialist: Dummy for socialist countries. Civil law: The source is the legal origin classification in La Porta et al. Political rights: Political rights index. taken from Penn World Tables (2002). Bahrain. taken from Deininger and Squire (1996). German.
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ITIZENSHIP L AWS E VOLUTION :T RANSITION M ATRICES Citizenship laws in 2001 Jus sanguinis regime Mixed regime Jus soli regime Total Citizenship laws in 1948: Jus sanguinis regime 46 20 1 67 Mixed regime 11 6 2 19 Jus soli regime 31 9 36 76 Total 88 35 39 162 Citizenship laws in 1975 Jus sanguinis regime Mixed regime Jus soli regime Total Citizenship laws in 1948: .
Jus sanguinis regime 63 3 1 67 Mixed regime 10 7 2 19 Jus soli regime 28 1 47 76 Total 101 11 50 162 Citizenship laws in 2001 Jus sanguinis regime Mixed regime Jus soli regime Total Citizenship laws in 1975: Jus sanguinis regime 81 20 0 101 Mixed regime 2 9 0 11 Jus soli regime 5 6 39 50 .
Total 88 35 39 162 Page 45 Table 2 C HANGES IN C ITIZENSHIP L AWS Changes in citizenship laws (1948 to 2001) No change Toward jus sanguinis Toward jus soli Total Citizenship laws in 1948: Jus sanguinis regime 46 0 21 67 Mixed regime 6 11 2 19 Jus soli regime 36 40 0 76 Total 88 51 23 162 Changes in citizenship laws (1948 to 1975) No change .
Toward jus sanguinis Toward jus soli Total Citizenship laws in 1948: Jus sanguinis regime 63 0 4 67 Mixed regime 7 10 2 19 Jus soli regime 47 29 0 76 Total 117 39 6 162 Changes in citizenship laws (1975 to 2001) No change Toward jus sanguinis Toward jus soli Total Citizenship laws in 1975: Jus sanguinis regime 81 0 20 101 Mixed regime 9 2 0 11 Jus soli regime 39 11 .
698 .916 1 3 .835 1 3 Citizenship laws in 1975 162 1.685 .0 50 Total 129 13 20 162 Page 46 Table 3 C ITIZENSHIP L AWS D ATA S ET :S UMMARY S TATISTICS Variable Observations Mean Standard deviation Minimum Maximum Citizenship laws in 2001 162 1.
173 .204 .458 . laws (1948 to 1975) 162 .655 -1 1 Naturalization in 2001 142 2.056 .941 1 3 Changes in cit.488 -1 1 Changes in cit.920 1 4 Citizenship policy index in 2001 142 .415 .Citizenship laws in 1948 162 2.451 -1 1 Changes in cit.299 0 1 Page 47 Table 4 S UMMARY .043 . laws (1948 to 2001) 162 -. laws (1975 to 2001) 162 -.
691 .011 70.646 9.673 .485 -1 1 Jus sanguinis as initial cit. law 324 .875 1 3 Changes in citizenship laws 324 -.080 .116 .500 0 1 Civil legal origin 324 .S TATISTICS Variable Observations Mean Standard deviation Minimum Maximum Current citizenship laws 324 1.470 0 1 Migration stock 300 5.519 .673 Net migration flows 318 -.713 .
173 .204 0 1 Small country 324 .160 .368 0 1 Sub-Saharan Africa 324 .223 0 1 Other border changes 324 .434 0 1 Berlin wall 324 .35 Decolonization 324 .551 -47.250 .146 0 1 Latin America 324 .052 .95 63.8.022 .043 .379 0 1 Southern Europe 324 .
442 0 1 British or Portuguese colony 324 .265 .730 2.349 ..299 0 .379 0 1 Oil 324 .472 0 1 Socialist 324 .040 1 7 Catholic share 324 31.535 35.281 0 1 Political rights 276 3.890 Government consumption .572 0 97.333 .173 .086 .3 Ethnolinguistic fractionalization 272 .
979 10.617 11. The reference period is 19502000. The first cross section refers to the 1950-1975 subperiod while the second cross section refers to the 1976-2000 subperiod.060 Gini index 155 40.54 3.180 N OTE .488 1.966 20.01 53.342 2.233 Share of young 324 34.263 19.249 4. The sample includes two cross sections of 162 countries. For details about the construction of the variables see the text. Page 49 Table 5 P AIRWISE C ORRELATIONS A .425 9.36 Page 48 Log GDP per capita 263 7.47 27.492 72.495 63.
24** Other border changes -.12* Net migration flows -.05 .04 Southern Europe -.06 Jus sanguinis as initial cit.MONG D EPENDENT AND I NDEPENDENT V ARIABLES Citizenship laws Changes in citizenship laws Migration stock -.09 -.15** .14* -.02 Latin America .33** Decolonization -.48** Civil legal origin -.64** .12* -.42** Berlin wall -.08 .07 -.10 + Small country .11 + -.60** .12* . law -.
The reference period is 1950-2000.22** -.05 .03 .24** Page 50 N OTE .13* -.39** .29** .19** British or Portuguese colony .03 -.12* -.10 + Ethnolinguistic fractionalization -.Sub-Saharan Africa -.20** Log GDP per capita .25** .20** Government consumption -.06 Share of young -. The sample includes two cross sections of 162 countries.18** Catholic share .14* Oil -. .10 + -.02 -.26** Socialist -.34** Gini index .06 Political rights .
** p < .The first cross section refers to the 1950-1975 subperiod while the second cross section refers to the 1976-2000 subperiod. For details about the construction of the variables see the text.051 + -. * p < . + p < . Page 51 Table 6 T HE D ETERMINANTS OF C ITIZENSHIP L AWS :M ULTINOMIAL L OGIT E STIMATES Specification (a) Specification (b) Specification (c) Mixed regime Jus soli regime Mixed regime Jus soli regime Mixed regime Jus soli regime Migration stock -.055** .01.05.10.
568** -7.28) (3.90) (-5.99) (-4.193** 1.048** -2.-.53) Jus sang.61) (-2.712** -6.79) (-1.27) Decolonization -1.045 (-1.032 -.28) (-.09) (-1.409* -.054 + -.55) .65) (.02) (2.59** (-4.24) (-4.117** -4.084 -1.523 (-1.167* -.43) (-4.41) (-.272 2. law -2.86) (-2.81) (-1.044** -6.887** 1. cit.87) (-3.385** .47) (2.39) (-5. as init.30) (-1.38) Period 1.211** -.211 (4.296 + -2.
69) (-1.234 + 1.523 (-1.14) (1.804 .224* -.87) Latin America -.153 1.084 + (1.035 .51) (2.187 (2.495** (-.866** -.75) Government consumption .68) .415 -2.88) (.69) (.70) (3.23) (.93) Small country -.Southern Europe 1.73) (-.621 4.03) (-.799 2.063** (1.81) (1.156 + .64) Jus san.07) (2.566 + . X migration stock .
024 1.48) (-.43) Page 52 Catholic share .70) Ethno.05) (2.548** .626* -.46) (.01 (1.277 (.84) (2. fractionalization .02) (1.353* 3.73) (2.426* (2.43) (1.092** .012 .75) (-2.02) Political rights .165* (-2.716 11.09) N 300 300 300 300 .397* (-1.193 + -.023 1.46) Constant -1.03) (2.Share of young -.
57 McFadden's Adjusted R 2 .64 N OTE .77 -155.32 .53 .81 .45 . Robust z statistics in brackets.71 . clustered at country level.224 224 Log likelihood -195.4 .46 .24 Maximum Likelihood R 2 . .83 Adjusted Count R 2 .29 .79 Count R 2 .58 . The reference period is 1950-2000.55 .94 -95.68 McFadden's R 2 . Jus sanguinis is the reference category.68 .32 .44 Cragg & Uhler's R 2 .
+ P < .681** (18.49) (-2.09) (-.193* -. law .001 (2. ** P < .10. Page 53 Table 7 T HE D ETERMINANTS OF C ITIZENSHIP L AWS :M ARGINAL E FFECTS (M ULTINOMIAL L OGIT .34) Jus sanguinis as initial cit.F ULL S PECIFICATION ) Jus sanguinis regime Mixed regime Jus soli regime Migration stock .05.025* -.01.7) .023* -.875** -. * P < .
86) Jus sanguinis X migration stock -.13) (-1.034 (-1.203** .15) (-2.805** (-4.77) Southern Europe -.80) (.194** .121 (-1.51) Latin America -.51) (1.016 -.75) Small country .56) (-7.85) (5.123 .088 -.59) (-3.95) (2.44) Decolonization .611** -.16) (.027* .86) (-.170 .336** -.92) Period -.139 + (.(-2.03) (.114 (.303 + .291 .
010* .50) Ethno.50) (.152 (-.001 Page 54 (-1.006 (-2.002 .50) .01) Share of young .65) (-1.021 .061** -.16) (.107** .028 . fractionalization -.76) (2.037 + (-3.007* (-1.004 .14) (.29) (1.36) (1..018 -.069** .043* (2.98) (.124 -.96) Political rights -.001 .56) (-.15) Catholic share -.92) Government consumption -.18) (-2.
05. + P < . The reference period is 1950-2000. clustered at country level.(2.10. * P < . ** P < .01.90) N 224 224 224 N OTE . Robust z statistics in brackets.61) (1. The above marginal effects refer to the multinomial logit estimates of our full specification (specification (c) in Table 6).039 + . Page 55 Table 8 T HE D ETERMINANTS OF C HANGE IN C ITIZENSHIP L AWS :M ULTINOMINAL L OGIT E STIMATES Toward jus sanguinis Toward jus soli Migration stock .
90) (.50) (.05 + .68) Southern Europe 2.341 -.70) .001 (.493** (.006 .12) Period .82) (1.12) Share of young .652 1.44) Small country -.2 + 2.15) (2.95) (1.155** (1.-.032 (1.898** 2.60) Government consumption -.94) (3.736 + (.65) (1.593 (.006 (1.02 -.058 + (2.73) Decolonization 2.82) Catholic share -.
58 Maximum Likelihood R 2 .508 (2.15 Cragg & Uhler's R 2 .96) (2.33 McFadden's R 2 .04) N 224 224 Log likelihood -107.12) Ethnolinguistic fractionalization 1.08) Constant -4.981* 2.771* Page 56 (.16 .81 Adjusted Count R 2 .3 McFadden's Adjusted R 2 .84) (1.52) Political rights .104 .23) (1.364 9.234 (.(.45 Count R 2 .
+ P < . The reference period is 1950-2000.26) .01) (-1.01.003* -. * P < .003 -. No change in citizenship laws is the reference category. ** P < . Robust z statistics in brackets.000 (2. Page 57 Table 9 T HE D ETERMINANTS OF C HANGE IN C ITIZENSHIP L AWS :M ARGINAL E FFECTS (M ULTINOMIAL L OGIT ) Toward jus sanguinis No change Toward jus soli Migration stock .05.10. clustered at country level.N OTE .
65) Government consumption -.001 (-2.19) Period .299 -.016** (.069 (2.33) (1.022 .02) (1.31) (2.003 .044 -.015 (-.10) (-2.415* .(-.00) (-2.038 -.442* .004* .58) (-1.29) .102 .013 -.53) (.374* -.28) Share of young .06) Small country -.42) (1.003 .16) Southern Europe .74) (-.05) Decolonization .058* (.116 (1.27) (1.
12) N 224 224 224 Page 58 N OTE .10.145* -. Page 59 Table Appendix Table A.74) Catholic share -.10) (1.015 .19) Ethnolinguistic fractionalization .75) (-1.000 .39) (1.077 + (2.007 (. ** P < .223* .12) (-2.05.71) (.60) (.(1. clustered at country level. The reference period is 1950-2000.01.18) (-2.007 -. * P < . The above marginal effects refer to the multinomial logit estimates in Table 8. Robust z statistics in brackets.000 (-.1 .000 .89) Political rights . + P < .
12) (-1.T HE D ETERMINANTS OF C ITIZENSHIP L AWS :M ULTINOMIAL L OGIT E STIMATES .013 (-.36) Average migration stock -.052 (-2.533** -7.152* -.62) Jus sanguinis as initial citizenship law -4.81) (-.A LTERNATIVE C OVARIATES Specification (a) Specification (b) Mixed regime Jus soli regime Mixed regime Jus soli regime Migration stock -.344** .056 -.
834** -.(-5.941 -1.397** .09) (-4.01) Southern Europe 1.54) (1.908 .12) Civil legal origin .22) (.667 4.003 (-.79) (-.649 (2.42) Latin America -.84) (-1.218 1.33) (2.76) (1.16) (-1.260 1.317** -.31) Decolonization -.742 + (1.595 (1.68) (.509 + -.525 1.046 5.436** .88) Period 2.140 -1.062 .64) (.21) (-1.
894 + 1.197 + -.23) (-1.03) (3.89) (1.65) (.040 Page 60 (1.29) Jus san.(-.043 .09) (2.128 (-1.59) Share of young -.402* .036 .140 + .67) (-1.64) Small country -2.90) (.55) (2.560 -1.73) (-.10) Government consumption .068** (1.019 -.61) Civil legal origin X migration stock . X average migration stock .25) (2.110 (.503 + .063** .65) (1.
58) (1.436* .012 .011 .08) (2.096 -.950 + (-.52) (.78) (2.11) .035 1.81) (1.52) (2.006 .831 11.539** .56) Constant 3.75) (.273* -3.03) (.276 (2.567 4.03) (1.98) Catholic share .85) (1.78) (-2.74) Political rights .46) (-1.563* .16) (-1.290 1.017 (1.38) Ethnolinguistic fractionalization -.-.527 (1.247* (-1.029 1.
(-1.04) (1. Jus sanguinis is the reference category.55 McFadden's R 2 .57 .74 -132.83 .48 N OTE .75 Adjusted Count R 2 .64 Count R 2 .64 . .44 .01.10.01 Maximum Likelihood R 2 . clustered at country level. The reference period is 1950-2000. * P < . + P < .41 McFadden's Adjusted R 2 .78 . Robust z statistics in brackets.05. ** P < .01) N 224 224 224 224 Log likelihood -95.28 Cragg & Uhler's R 2 .68 .
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