Memo To Doherty Campaign Leadership From: Date: Re

METHODOLOGY The following survey was conducted by OnMessage Inc. for Brendan Doherty for Congress in Rhode Island’s 1 Congressional District. The survey consists of 400 likely voters. Live interviews were conducted via telephone October 24-25, 2012, and were stratified by township to reflect historic turnout patterns. The margin of error is +/- 4.9% . Bottom line – Brendan Doherty is leading incumbent Congressman David Cicilline by a 6% margin with Doherty at 45%, Cicilline at 39%, 6% for David Vogel and 11% undecided.    Doherty is viewed favorably by 42% of the electorate with 33% holding an unfavorable view. Cicilline is viewed favorably by only 39% of the electorate with 46% holding an unfavorable view. st The ballot test finds Doherty leading in all three of the counties within the 1 District with his most significant lead in the largest, Providence County, at 46% for Doherty to 40% for Cicilline. o By partisanship we find Doherty winning by a large margin among independents at 53% with only 28% for Cicilline. o By vote behavior (how do you usually vote) Doherty’s lead with voters in the middle is even greater. Among Ticketsplitters (those who say they vote for both a mix of Democrats and Republicans) the ballot stands at 55% Doherty to just 24% for Cicilline. Additionally, this critical st cell makes up the majority of the undecided voters in the 1 at 63%. Not surprisingly, President Obama leads Governor Romney 55% to 34%. Obama is likely to finish with st near 60% of the vote in the 1 District. As an incumbent Congressman, David Cicilline is in a precarious situation, well below 50% with an image that is 7 points more unfavorable than favorable. In nearly every case, history tells us an incumbent in that position loses. Without question that’s the likely outcome in this race but given the significant partisan advantage Democrats enjoy in this district the race will undoubtedly tighten with a Doherty win on Election Day. We draw that conclusion because Cicilline is in the extremely difficult position of having to overcome a significant deficit while holding a net negative image against an opponent with a net favorable image.

Wes Anderson, OnMessage Inc. October 26, 2012 New Survey In Rhode Island’s 1st U.S. Congressional District

 

Wes Anderson is a leading GOP pollster with 20 years of experience in opinion research. As a founding partner Wes now leads the polling divisions of OnMessage Inc. and OnMessage Sports, providing political and corporate clients with a full spectrum of quantitative and qualitative opinion research products. In 2010 and 2012 Wes served as the lead pollster for the NRCC's Independent Expenditure efforts. You can read more about Wes Anderson at

Sign up to vote on this title
UsefulNot useful