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DMV

INTERNATIONAL NUTRITIONALS

SCENARIO PLANNING
INTERNATIONAL LIFESTYLE STUDIES JAVI BUS MAX JACOBS VERA LENSSINCK RENE QUEKEL JUNE 2012

FOREWORD
In the past ten weeks we Javi Bus, Max Jacobs, Vera Lenssinck and Rene Quekel worked on the process of scenario planning. By creating a business case, scope, analysing trends and finding uncertainties, we have developed four scenarios that will explain how the future of North America will be in 2020. According to these scenarios we developed products that go with the scenarios. We would like to thank DMV for giving us this opportunity. We would also thank our supervisor Erica Bol and teacher Matthijs Leendertse for giving us valuable advices and for sharing their knowledge and available information about scenario planning. We hope you enjoy reading. With kind regards, Javi Bus, Max Jacobs, Vera Lenssinck, Rene Quekel

PREFACE

PREFACE
The purpose of this report is to create strategic awareness for DMV about the developments in 2020, regarding to weight management, sport nutrients and health nutrients in North America. Our research in milk production, competitors, technologic developments, influence of the government and the behaviour of the consumers has led to this report of the four scenarios. The scenarios are based on personalization and knowledge about health and food. Each scenario is based on findings and gives a recommendation of a possible future product.

SUBJECT SCOPE TRENDS AND UNCERTAINTIES SCENARIO AXES SCENARIO FRAME SCENARIO VIDEOS SCENARIOS CONCEPTS STRATEGIC EVALUATION EPILOGUE ENCLOSURE: ASSUMPTIONS SOURCES

PAGE 4 6 10 11 12 13 25 34 36 37 52

SCOPE

Scenario question
What will the developments in North America be concerning the use of dairy products in relation to weight management, sport nutrients and health nutrients in 2020?

Business case With its milk proteins DMV wants to develop a new sports drink. This case shows a research result on the attitude of the North American society towards dairy products related to health and exercise in 2020. DMV would also like to know which consumer groups will use dairy products in the future and where, what and why they want to. Based on this information we will write scenarios that are filled with uncertainties that explore the future. We will discuss the uncertainties later in the report.

Time horizon Together with DMV we have chosen to write four scenarios for the year 2020. These short-time scenarios can help DMV to pay good attention to the future, to adapt to what will happen and to advise its clients on how they can adapt to their future. Key factors Milk production Technological developments Consumer behaviour Influence of the US government Competition from other brands

Stakeholders Intern: DMV Netherlands DMV North America Office (David Lee) DMV Fonterra (50% joint venture) FrieslandCampina Fontys Acadamy Extern: Milk suppliers Consumers

Information scope To identify the attitude of the North American society towards dairy products related to health and exercise, it is needed to do research on a couple topics. In the scheme below you can see the most important information sources that we used to fill the scenarios.

Key factors
Consumer behaviour

Information scope
Macro level (society based) United States Department of Agriculture Economic Reseach Service US. Dairy Export Council United States Department of Agriculture US. Dairy Export Council Products, Glanbia , GrandeCIG , Fonterra, HilmarIngredients Understanding Dairy Markets Meso level (consumer based)

Milk production Influence of the US government Technological developments Competition from other brands

Scheme 1: information scope key factors

Trend summary In the next scheme the most important trends will be shown. They will all have a positive, negative or uncertain influence on DMV. According to our textbook Scenario planning a trend is a constant pattern that shows when a long term of data is analyzed. This scheme is used to build our scenarios.

Source: Handboek Scenarioplanning: Future scenarios as strategical instrument for managing uncertainties, 2012. Kluwer, Mario van Rijn en Rene van der Burgt

Trend
Individualizing (1)

Positive influence
Better and more aimed food and health care for individuals. DMV can adapt to this by personalizing their sub-products (7) Possibility for quicker and more efficient production. Bio technology is used for a longer best before date of food.

Negative influence
Socialization as counter reaction/trend to individualzing. Society groups start to find cooperative more important. Newest Technologies are being bought and patented which creates a monopoly position for rival businesses.

Uncertain influence
The grade of personalization

The constantly increasing development of technology (2)

Transparency (3)

The bigger the better? (4)

The attitude of the consumer according to genetically manipulated food changes and the thrust and faith in food supplements grows. The US government starts sharing Suspicion in brands that have the The importancy of the grade of knowledge and information. tiniest mistake or secrecy of knowledge on healthty food and Consumers gain entrance to production methods. exercise (5) knowledge. Organizations can distinguish themselves by being transparent and honest. (6) Awareness; people are becoming A paradigma shift could happen. Will the Americans gain weight by The beauty ideal could change. the health stimulization of the more involved in weight Technological alternatives for government. management. healing different than food and exercise are created.

Scheme 2: Trends influences on DMV. The sources of the uncertainties will be shown on the page sources.

UNCERTAINTIES
Uncertainties
More personalization

Possible result
Personalized food nutrients

Postive impact on organization


Consumers want personalized health and food . DMV can adapt to this by delivering products on exact body needs DMV gets acces to specific information about consumers to gain insights in the motives of consumer behaviour

Negative impact on organization

Uncertain impact

The consumer wants are to Uncertainty specific and the demand for products is too big. DMV cannot fulfil the needs of the consumer The knowledge of consumers does not get better so they will not buy food because of how healthy it is but because of the taste or because it is convenience food Uncertainty

The accessibility of knowledge on healthy food and exercise

The smart society Health potential

Faith in food supplements Food can be replaced with The demand for food food supplements supplements grows and DMV can adapt to that. Government stimulance The new government The government stimulates its after Obama will continue citizens to take on a healthier stimulating its citizens to lifestyle. Food labels with gain knowledge about transparent information about health, food and exercise nutrients. DMV could play a big in 2020. role in supplieing the missing food nutrients for daily use. Scheme 3: Overview of uncertainties in relation to positive or negative impact on DMV

People lose faith in food Uncertainty supplements and go back to natural products The government stimulates its Uncertainty citizens to take proteints different from milk proteins. This will lead to a smaller intake of DMV product.

RELATIONS BETWEEN UNCERTAINTIES


Uncertainty 1: personalization Uncertainty 2: accessibility of knowledge Uncertainty 3: faith in food supplements Uncertainty 4: government stimulance

Uncertainties
Uncertainty 1

Uncertainty 1
x

Uncertainty 2
Influence on each other. Do not exclude each other

Uncertainty 3
Influence on each other. Do not exclude each other

Uncertainty 4
Influence on each other. Do not exclude each other

Uncertainty 2

Influence on each other. Do not exclude each other

Influence on each other. Do not exclude each other

Uncertainty 3

Influence on each other. Are both the same x

Uncertainty 4

Scheme 4: Relations between uncertainties

GRADE OF IMPACT ON DMV


The constantly increasing development of technology Faith in food supplemens Government stimulance Transparancy Accessibility of knowledge on health, food and exercise Individualizing Personalization The bigger the better? The uncertainties with the biggest and most uncertain impact on DMV are ofcourse the most interesting to explore. With such a high impact on DMV it is important to know what would happen in 2020 and how DMV could adapt to this. For our scenarios we chose the uncertainties that are in the top right angle. Impact

Uncertainty

Scheme 5: Grade of impact and uncertainty for DMV

SCENARIO AXES
DICHOTOMY OF THE TWO BIGGEST UNCERTAINTIES

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Personalization of food and sports

Grade of knowledge on healthy food and exercise

SCENARIO FRAME
The Horizontal axis The horizontal axis represents the uncertainty grade of knowledge on health, food and exercise of North America in 2020. The left side of the axis represents a low grade of knowledge and the right side represents the high grade of knowledge. Will there be more knowledge in 2020 or will it decrease? What will the effects of this be on DMV combined with a low or high grade of personalization of food and sports? A recent study shows that there are relations between a low economical status and the intake of food. (1) There are differences in the nutrition patterns of people with a low income too. (5) Because of the trend transparency more and more information about nutrition and its ingredients becomes accessible. (3) The Federal Interagency Council on Statistical Policy in the United States has set up a tool that precisely shows the ingredients and for instance fat percentage of a hamburger. (2) Transparency from the government is an extern factor that influences the knowledge of the North American society. (4)An intern factor could be the mentality and grade of knowledge of the citizens themselves. Knowledge on health, food and exercise could have a high impact on society and shows a very uncertain future. Because of this we chose to use this axis for our future scenarios.

The vertical axis Our vertical axis is based on the uncertainty grade of personalisation of the North American society. Will it proceed or will it drop? The top side of the axis represents a high grade of personalization and the bottom side represents a low grade of personalization. Today, we live in a world where we are constantly overwhelmed by information and the social media revolution has only stimulated this. There are over 290 million tweets per day, 48 hours of YouTube video uploaded every minute and the North-American Facebook user has an average of 214 friends who are becoming more and more active all the time. It doesnt stop here, 3D printers are becoming more common and not only materials, but even food and organs can be printed by the use of a 3D printer. Imaging having a printer in your house that not only prints your clothes but even your food just the way you like it. Thats real personalization right? On the other hand there are sources that show us that personalization is a dangerous phenomenon and will not proceed in the future. If you want it or not, companies are using all your information to personalize their products for you and to filter information so the topics youre interested in are at the top of any website and match your past behaviour. That can be an advantage, but through these personalized feeds, the things that really matter fall out of view. This is because of the filter bubble in which our personalized feeds show instead of the important news feeds etc. Our feeds also influence others feeds and so it goes on. This can harm our privacy.

Personalization of food and sports

Grade of knowledge on healthy food and exercise

SCENARIO 1: THE GOODWILL SOCIETY


LOW GRADE OF KNOWLEDGE ABOUT FOOD AND HEALTH X HIGH GRADE OF PERSONALIZATION

YOUTUBE bit.ly/MYz0Xq

SCENARIO 1: THE GOODWILL SOCIETY

We know what is good for you This part explores the world in 2020 based on a high grade of personalization on the community combined with a low grade of knowledge about food and health. In the recommendation there will be a proposal of what could be a future innovative product for DMV within this scenario. Assumptions In the year 2020 obese is the most common thought people have if you would ask them about the health of people living in North America. Over two-third of the Americans are overweight or obese. These Americans strongly believe in the fact that Google has the answer for their physical problems. But the internet in 2020 is so personalized that it overwhelms consumers with information that is related to their past internet usage. This makes a change of lifestyle more difficult because the answers of the health question do not lie in their past. Suppliers of nutrition could get a high position in determining what is good for consumers. Consumers are not able to find the right answers about food and health. They must learn to trust a product that can help them to have a healthy lifestyle. In 2020 the food industry could pretend that the addition of nutrients to food and drinks is good for the ignorant consumers. The influence of the health institutions and pharmacy is big. People get a full body scan every three months to check if they are still healthy. Almost every individual uses different medicines. Society is stressful. It is not always possible to spend enough time on physical activities and finding out about health. But why would they do that? Manufacturers want to make people believe that they know what is good for them. There will be a lot of alternatives for sports to reduce the body weight. An example: digesting intestinal bacteria of healthy people into the food of people that are overweight. Within the world of personalization it is not only possible to personalize healthcare, but there is also a big chance to personalize food. Organizations are able to define the needs of each single consumer and with those insights and this knowledge, nutritional suppliers made it possible to produce efficiently. This strongly decreases the spilling of raw materials. These manufacturers and suppliers make an indication, how to provide every consumer with what they need, by using consumer insights and information for decreasing the spilling of raw materials.

Because of the lack of transparency in the market of trading and speculating in the future, food prices could deliberately be kept high. Companies could protest against it. If transparency would increase, food prices would be influenced positively. The main target groups for the food industry would be organizations like schools or G.P. practices because people have confidence in them. Conclusion This society is a stressful society with a lot of unknown suspects like health and food. Organizations that are credible (honest and dishonest organizations) determine what is good for consumers, this became possible, mainly because organizations are able to get enough personal information about the consumer through data from their past internet usage. The personalized service made the food production more efficient in producing food, because food is produced on personal quantities (by gaining personal information to form a production database) instead of mass production. But the food prices can still be kept high. Consumers are ignorant because of their lack of knowledge about food and health. In this scenario it is important that there will be someone who gains the trust of the consumer and really tells them what is good for them. Transparency and a helping hand with differentiated products fits in this scenario. Their eating behaviour is time related and emotional. In this stressful and individual society, people do want to eat fast and do often eat more by lack of sleep (emotional).

SCENARIO 2
THE FOOD PRINT SOCIETY
HIGH GRADE OF KNOWLEDGE ABOUT FOOD AND HEALTH X HIGH GRADE OF PERSONALIZATION

YOUTUBE

bit.ly/L068UY

SCENARIO 2: THE FOOD PRINT SOCIETY

DMV as a provider of personal needs This part explores the world in 2020 based on a high grade of personalization on the community combined with a high grade of knowledge about food and health. In the recommendation there will be a proposal of what could be a future innovative product for DMV. Assumptions In 2020 people have more knowledge about food and health. Main reason is the increasing transparency of food in North America. People have the knowledge about healthy food and physical activities to maintain a healthy lifestyle. A good example of transparency in food is McDonalds that used to make pink slime from waist meat to manipulate its burgers. Knowing this as a customer led to less eating at McDonalds so they needed to change some things. These examples are not good for the conscious of the society and have led to a critical consumer. Also the need for personalization is high in this individualistic world. People get more medical information about their selves and the self-prevention from people is emerging. There will be a personalized health care system where people can buy help based on what they think they might need in the future. Consumers are increasingly critical about health and nutrition. In 2020 people are looking for healthy food alternatives and the guise of raw materials is less important for them. Eating because it is a habit no longer exists, eating is pure physiological and functional. The taste and content of food will be more important. Why should there be additions in your food, while you know that this is only for the durability of the best before date and the colour, instead of truly healthy products without additions? The use of additions are meaningless for people because they know what is good for them. Because of the specific demands of consumers it could be that there will be a food deficit or surplus through the absurd demand for specific nutrients. Food suppliers will be exclusive because of the high demand of specific food. People know what is good for them and so there is a high demand for these specific nutrients.

There could be ingredient stores where you can buy your own nutrients belonging to your personal needs. Companies could give personal assistance in determining what is good for you and people could use a nutrient meter for their body, just like the old insulin meter, which measures what you do and do not need. People are going to buy a food printer because they know they can control their healthy lifestyle better with the right ingredients. The only problem is that food is getting expensive. With efficient use, the prices relatively stay the same. Finished products are declining as the use of fuel will be too expensive. It is important to make less use of oil. Supermarkets have less power, but will focus more on health, food for the sick, or specialty foods. Drugstores could be under the roof of the supermarkets. Conclusion Customers are getting more and more critical about products because of the increasing knowledge they have about food and health. In the individualistic world, the special needs for an individual are getting more and more specific. With the increasing transparency in food the customers want to see what the product is made of and where it came from. Because of the self prevention people want to know what their body needs are. With the technology of the food printers, people can exactly consume what they need and want. Taste is getting more important than the looks and customers prefer food that is good for them. This is the main reason that food is not just a behaviour anymore, we eat because of its functions. Is the energy level of our body and mind good, then we can focus more on personal developments. It could be that the ideal image of beauty changes, but at the moment you can only see this in the catwalk scene, where models are allowed to have a bigger size. In 2020 supermarkets do not have the possibilities to compete with the specialized demands of the individual customers with an aversion against mass produced food products. If everybody knows what is really good for them by using the food printer, then the supermarkets should make a deal with the new trendsetters. The eating behaviour is time related and functional. In this individual society, the experience of "eating" had become less pleasurable, but the results of this functional eating satisfies individuals (functional). Of course there is enough space to eat unhealthy food, but after that you'll have to compensate that.

SCENARIO 3: THE McDONALDs SOCIETY


LOW GRADE OF KNOWLEDGE ABOUT FOOD AND HEALTH X LOW GRADE OF PERSONALIZATION

YOUTUBE bit.ly/MYDXzw

SCENARIO 3: THE McDONALDs SOCIETY

The bigger the better - a wakeup call for the government This part explores the world in 2020 based on a low grade of personalization of the community combined with a low grade of knowledge about food and health. There will be a proposal in the recommendation of what could be a future based innovative product for DMV. Assumptions In 2020 the Americans will have become bigger and dumber. Mainly because of the lack of knowledge about health and food and the eating habits there is overconsumption of unhealthy products. Health care systems become too expensive for the Americans because more people will become ill. More than two-third of the population has problems with being overweight or obese and the government will interfere a lot to solve these health problems. Unfortunately there is not a solution for every health problem. Most of the prevention is to be paid to prevent obesity and to support a healthy lifestyle but the lack of knowledge keeps the urge for sugar, convenience food and fast food alive. This is because an ignorant society eats whatever it likes and taste and easiness are the core-values belonging to the eating habits of the North Americans. The government should provide the people with more information. Products could be labelled with a bad-for-your health-label. This is to protect the citizens and to give them the choice to buy healthier products or to be aware of what they buy. The government maintains its role as a watching big brother. Insurances become cheaper for the healthy but being fat comes with a hefty price tag. The government is controlling the conditions of sale through direct restrictions or limits. Weight scales might get integrated in the supermarkets. Weight scales will decide by the LBS of the consumer what the prices of the fat-and sugar rich food will be.

The government tries to control the lifestyle of its citizens, but the citizens are looking for other solutions. Instant beauty is wanted! Not only pills for losing weight without moving, but also products that really make you look thinner and more beautiful by using them are the new itproducts. The ideal beauty image fades a little. It is accepted by society that models are not skinny any more and are allowed to have wrinkles. The image of obesity is nothing against the image of the models. A lot of people think obese people are unhealthy and are very expensive for the health care system. Conclusion More than two-third of the population has problems with their weight and that entails in a lot of trouble for people and society. The government opens its eyes and starts measuring to improve the national health. The government will think of strategies to restrict the production of unhealthy products and wants to have products labelled at their rate of health. People are looking for an easy way to stay healthy or get healthier. The eating behaviours are emotional. In this society food is mostly eaten for the taste (emotional), but thereby is would be nice if it is healthy.

SCENARIO 4:
DECENTRALIZED DEVELOPMENT SOCIETY
HIGH GRADE OF KNOWLEDGE ABOUT FOOD AND HEALTH X LOW GRADE OF PERSONALIZATION

YOUTUBE bit.ly/MypYVF

SCENARIO 4: DECENTRALIZED DEVELOPMENT SOCIETY

We do it ourselves together This part explores the world in 2020 based on a low grade of personalization and a high grade of knowledge in the community about food and health. Assumptions The society is transparent. Business strategies of organizations and the government are user centered and they are in service of the consumer, because the consumer has the knowledge and is suspicious about chaotic food chains and health care. Sharing of information and knowledge is easy and is done en masse so research can easily be done by people themselves. Thus every individual does contribute in this period that is also known for its fast development in knowledge and possibilities. Trust in the government and organizations is relatively low, the consumers have the knowledge and adapt by taking control of their own matters. By this critical attitude unhealthy food, whose production process is wasteful and harmful and is being supplied by producers that are not transparent and honest, is massively rejected. Large organizations are being tested and forced to follow a transparent strategy and if necessary, to change their complete production process. The process of food production cannot be adjusted quickly enough to the demand for fair and healthy products. Many food organizations are forced into bankruptcy. Especially the market for meat (and therefore the wheat market too) are collapsing. Meat becomes a luxury product with strict requirements. Animal proteins are expensive and hard to obtain and the demand for alternative, (high quality) proteins is high and still growing.

There is abundance of land that was formerly used for mass production of meat. Governments initiate projects to use the abundance of agricultural land for mass production of basic nutrients from plant products or products derived from animals (E.G. dairy, eggs, etc.) to provide the world of food. Healthcare is being criticized for its closed attitude to consumers and medical professionals start sharing their knowledge and are more transparent towards the consumer. Detection of diseases and disorders can easily be done by consumers themselves. The food production in this slightly socialistic society continues in the process of decentralization. The regional environment is important because that is where more of your daily food find its source. Food is regionally bonded and the citizens are becoming aware of the fact that they depend on the agricultural hinterland. Being together is a daily, healthy activity and eating together is normal. Conclusion Transparency is a core factor in this scenario and it is integrated in the whole society. The government and organizations have to adapt their strategies to fulfill the consumers needs. The consumer has the knowledge about food and health and is willing to take initiative when something is missing. Decentralization is also an important development, which means that centrally organized businesses / policies will decentralize. More independency for the people, but more responsibility. The society is a little bit socialistic and communities are more important. The pressure on the world food production drives people to keep continuing with innovation. The eating behaviour of this society is functional and emotional. In this socialistic society people do eat more together for health reasons and because they provide their food mostly together. Eating together (emotional) and eating to feed our bodies (functional).

CONCEPT 1: DMV DROPS


LOW GRADE OF KNOWLEDGE ABOUT FOOD AND HEALTH X HIGH GRADE OF PERSONALIZATION

CONCEPT 1: EXPLANATION

The target group This will be a business to business product but the target group will indirectly be all citizens. Anyone could use these drops since they will be so personalized but in a we know what is good for you society, the North Americans will only trust the knowing organisations. Our goal is to have them as regulators and to have them sell it to the citizens as health improvers or as medicine. When there is faith, the consumers will pay.

Recommendation In a world full of stress , with and a low grade of knowledge about food and health, society trusts the people that do know what is good for them. Which are the knowing organisations that have direct contact with citizens such as the government, dieticians, maternity care and doctors. With such a high level of obesity, people are drastically trying to lose weight in an easy and efficient way. Our recommendation is for DMV to produce a range of supplement drops which people can use to drop in their food or drinks. The drops will be for losing weight against obesity, growing in a healthy way for kids , muscle building for sportsmen, bone amplifiers for the elderly, substitutes for breast feeding for babies etcetera. With the increasing role of health controllers such as dieticians there already is control on the peoples health and needs. The knowing organisations can simply pick one of the drops that suits the client best that they can add into their food habits. Product A range of supplement drops which people can use to drop in their food or drinks. The drops will be for losing weight against obesity (with casein), growing in a healthy way for kids (with vitamin C and minerals) , muscle building for sportsmen (with whey protein), bone amplifiers for the elderly (with calcium), substitutes for breast feeding for babies (amino acids from casein) etcetera. Every person will get drops with different ingredients and an advise on the amount of drops they need to take adjusted to their needs. This will make it more personalized and better for their health.

The need of the target group There is a need for transparency, personalization and easy products. The citizens will trust their doctors anyway, but they do want to know what is in the drops so we need to be clear about that. They do not want drastic changes of lifestyle or food habits, just some easy and healthy drops. Distribution Our advice is to distribute the product through knowing organizations that the citizens will trust. As we mentioned before; dieticians, maternity care and doctors will be good options. Again our opinion is that Fonterra, who already has a joint venture with DMV as DFE could be an important partner, who also could produce the product or make the ingredients.

CONCEPT 2:
DMV INGRIEDENT STORE
HIGH GRADE OF KNOWLEDGE ABOUT FOOD AND HEALTH X HIGH GRADE OF PERSONALIZATION

CONCEPT 2: EXPLANATION

The target group Individuals or groups of consumers with general interest from all ages, that have the knowledge about food and health and are critical about what they do for their lifestyle and the products they buy. The eating habits are time related and functional. The experience of "eating" has become less pleasurable, but the results of this functional eating satisfies individuals. Of course there is enough space to eat unhealthy food, but after that you will have to compensate that.

Recommendation It is recommended that there will be a place where critical consumers can meet advisors in a store who have knowledge about health and food. The store will have the latest technologies People have the knowledge, but do not have the money and the specific instruments to measure their physical needs. By releasing these technologies to costumers and by creating direct contact with customers it is easy to build a relation based on trust. Therefore it is recommended that DMV introduces the "nutrition store" where their premium products will be sold to consumers 'in a perfect fit' (Business to consumer) way. With the special needs of the customers it is recommended that they get specialized care depending on the demands of the individual customers. A mix between science and personal needs gives personalization. People have the knowledge and use food for functional needs. With the cooperation of doctors and dieticians it is possible to give the customers what they want. Healthy food, the right information and specification of the individual body.

Need of the target group: Food is something functional, these consumers want to have the ability to give their body what is healthy and what they need. Taste is less important than functionality and they rather want healthy products instead of products that taste good. Taste will still be important, but the taste is not the main reason this target group chooses their food. These consumers want to prevent their selves against an unhealthy lifestyle and demand transparency from the food and health companies.

Distribution Within the description of the product it will become clear that we recommend a DMV nutrient store. If DMV chooses to realize a (both B to C / B to B) consumer aimed nutrient store that is directly available for consumers, the entire distribution should be in the hands of DMV (Perhaps in association with another company). This means that DMV must change its business process by forward integration that makes it able for DMV to sell its own products to the consumers. Professional advisers and retail managers should be involved. A potential stakeholder could be Philips (Philips engages in the process of food printing and nutrient meters) because cooperation is the key for success for the DMV nutrient store and both companies can share their expertise. On the other hand, if DMV chooses to stay on as a supplier (Business to business) we recommend DMV to set up the nutrient store and to (also) sell ingredients that fit into a food printer. In this case Philips could be a potential client of DMV. Product In 2020 the food printer will be the number one appliance in the household. DMV introduces a personal fit nutrient store called the DMV Nutrient Store. The basic function of this service store is to provide people with ingredients for in their food printer. The ingredients will be basic need of proteins and other nutrients derived from dairy products. Additional services in the store provide consumers with their specific personal needs. To reach this goal a few technological examples, like the food printer in store for people that do not have one at home yet and the nutrient meter, could be very helpful in producing and retrieving information for realizing your personal diet whether you are a baby, a growing teenager, a professional sportsman, a pregnant woman or an elderly man. Because there is a cooperation with doctors and dieticians in the DMV nutrient store consumers are guaranteed for the specialized care on their food behaviour.

CONCEPT 3:
NOVEL FOODS: HEALTHY FAST FOOD BAR
LOW GRADE OF KNOWLEDGE ABOUT FOOD AND HEALTH X LOW GRADE OF PERSONALIZATION

HEALTHY FAST FOOD?

CONCEPT 3: EXPLANATION

The target group People with bad eating habits and who have an unhealthy lifestyle are the main target group for DMV. It is difficult to reach them in a world where they are overwhelmed with mass products that contain fat and sugar. The government should be the most important regulator to integrate the bars in the life of the North Americans. Distribution Our opinion is that Fonterra (who already has a joint venture with DMV and DFE) could be an important partner that can also produce the products. The distribution channels for consumption should be integrated in caterers, schools, vending machines and restaurants, but also in the supermarkets.

Recommendation It is recommended that DMV introduces a sugar and fat free supplement bar. Considering the snacking frequency of the Americans it is recommended to give them something that will contain nutrients that are an addition to the fast-food eating habits and will still have the taste of fat and sugar. People do not have the knowledge about food and health and it must be known that this bar is good for them and that can be eaten all day long.

Product Novel Foods: Healthy Fast Food Bar DMV could introduce a new bar, developed by an innovative recombinant DNA-process where the sugar and fat are being replaced by another nutrient. The reason for this process is that the taste of fat and sugar is not wasted during the process. This bar should also contain dairy, natural products or products that are really good for you. DMV could differentiate the products to each category group: one for weight management, one for the body maintenance and one for rehydration. All the bars are an addition to a healthier lifestyle and need to be trusted by the consumer. DMV simply trusted.

Need of the target group The direct need of the target group is a simple and relatively cheap product, that is edible anywhere and helps them to remain healthy. With their urge for sugar and fat the product needs to contain natural replacements that still satisfy the consumer needs.

CONCEPT 4: DMV NUTRIENT KIT


HIGH GRADE OF KNOWLEDGE ABOUT FOOD AND HEALTH X LOW GRADE OF PERSONALIZATION

CONCEPT 4: EXPLANATION
The target group consumer communities who are willing to buy the Basic Nutrient Kit to boost their diet in a more natural and easy way. The consumer will have the knowledge about food and consumers will buy their food as a group (community) in big numbers. As soon as this product keep its transparency it is wanted.

Recommendation It is recommended that DMV will introduce the Basic Nutrient Kit which contains of all the basic products of DMV. Cause of the independency and high knowledge of the American consumer (communities) there is need for products that are not processed between the food supplier (DMV) and the seller (the supermarket for example). DMV will satisfy consumer by offering the ultra transparent Basic Nutrient Kit that is directly available for consumers. This means that DMV must change its business process by forward integration that makes it able for DMV to sel its own products to the consumers. People do have the knowledge about food and health and it must be known that with this Basic Nutrient Kit the ultimate transparent product will be being offered by DMV, that is available for consumers to let them combine their own food. Product The Basic Nutrient Kit contains the main products of DMV, like dry caseinates, dry whey proteins, isolation of milk fat and an isolation of lactose. These isolated nutrients aren't combined into a substance, but separately packed. These different nutrient packs are put together in a specially designed kit that regulates the best temperature for these products. It is also able to separately purchase specific nutrients (for the single clients). The packs arent special, theyll do what they have to do. Functional, like the consumers want it to be. the consumer will keep buying this daily used product, because it will be being seen as a standard and transparent collection of basic nutrients (commodities) that arent ruined by additional product processes.

Need of the target group An optimal health, which means they need an optimal nutrition that is functional on the first place. Core values in this scenario are: honesty, transparency, independency, development, decentralization and expression. Distribution DMV will sell this product(s) to consumer directly. Easy for DMV and wanted by the consumer. The longer shelf life of these basic nutrients makes transport oversea more easy.

STRATEGIC EVALUATION
The foodprint society decentralized development society The goodwill society tact option (product / service) Scenarios The MacDonalds society future stability

Flash recovery drink Muscle maintenance powder shake Nutrition store Healthy fast food bar Basic Nutrition Kit Drops Scheme 6 Value ++ + o -Scheme 7

+ + ++ ++ ++

o o ++ o o

+ o ++ o + +

+ ++ +

Semi-stable Specific Stable Semi-stable Semi-stable Stable

Effect in scenario Very positive Positive Neutral Negative Very negative

Conclusion According to the data in scheme 6, we can see that the nutrition store and the Drops scored the best at future stability in the scenarios (3x stable). Choosing these products means that the risks are lower to realize a product that is not wanted. But this does not mean that the other products cannot be the best choice for the future. If scenario The goodwill society will come true, this means that almost every product, besides the DMV Nutrient Kit, can be successful. Sometimes you only have to change a tiny component of the product to make it fit in a particular scenario, for example: The flash recovery drink in The Mcdonalds society could be wanted, but because of the knowledge about food and health and because of DMVs relatively high prices, people would prefer to buy a cheaper product that is similar instead of the flash recovery drink.

Recommendation To make a safe choice, we recommend DMV to go into the direction of a more personalized society (not as extreme as in the scenarios) where people do have (and do want) more knowledge about what they eat and are willing to give more money for the best products, that have proven they work. In this case (scheme 6.) we recommend DMV to aim at consumer groups and/or categories to make a range of products that fits to the need of the consumers. Therefore the DMV Drops and the DMV Ingredient Store could be a good choice. Besides the DMV Ingredient Store, selling your primary products (intact milk proteins, hydrolysed proteins and diary-based ingredients), as the DMV Nutrient Kit, is an opportunity for DMV to also sell products in a business to consumer strategy to completely control the process.

EPILOGUE
During our process, we found out that scenario planning is not easy, but very interesting and instructive to do. The past 10 weeks we worked hard on this project and we have learned a lot from this experience and we hope that our scenarios are appropriate for DMV. We hope you enjoyed reading our findings and recommendations. With kinds regards, Javi Bus, Max Jacobs, Vera Lenssinck, Rene Quekel

ENCLOSURE: EXPLANATIONS OF SCNENARIO ASSUMPTIONS


SCENARIO 1: THE GOODWILL SOCIETY
We know what is good for you This part explores the world in 2020 based on a high grade of personalization on the community combined with a low grade of knowledge about food and health. In the recommendation there will be a proposal of what could be a future innovative product for DMV within this scenario. Assumptions In the year 2020 obese is the most common thought people have if you would ask them about the health of people living in North America. Over two-third of the Americans are overweight or obese. These Americans strongly believe in the fact that Google has the answer for their physical problems. (assumption 1) But the internet in 2020 is so personalized that it overwhelms consumers with information that is related to their past internet usage. (2) This makes a change of lifestyle more difficult because the answers of the health question do not lie in their past. Suppliers of nutrition could get a high position in determining what is good for consumers. (3) Consumers are not able to find the right answers about food and health. They must learn to trust a product that can help them to have a healthy lifestyle. In 2020 the food industry could pretend that the addition of nutrients to food and drinks is good for the ignorant consumers. (4) The influence of the health institutions and pharmacy is big. People get a full body scan every three months to check if they are still healthy. Almost every individual uses different medicines. Society is stressful. It is not always possible to spend enough time on physical activities and finding out about health. But why would they do that? Manufacturers want to make people believe that they know what is good for them. (5) There will be a lot of alternatives for sports to reduce the body weight. An example: digesting intestinal bacteria of healthy people into the food of people that are overweight. Within the world of personalization it is not only possible to personalize healthcare, but there is also a big chance to personalize food. Organizations are able to define the needs of each single consumer and with those insights and this knowledge, nutritional suppliers made it possible to produce efficiently. This strongly decreases the spilling of raw materials. These manufacturers and suppliers make an indication, how to provide every consumer with what they need, by using consumer insights and information (6) for decreasing the spilling of raw materials.

Because of the lack of transparency in the market of trading and speculating in futures, food prices could still manually be kept high.. (7) Companies could protest against it. If transparency would increase, food prices would be influenced positively. The main target groups for the food industry would be organizations like schools or G.P. practices because people have confidence in them.

EXPLANATION ASSUMPTIONS SCENARIO 1


Assumption 1. Americans strongly believe in the fact that Google has the answer for their physical problems. http://www.nghealthcareeurope.com/news/do-you-google-your-health-problems/ This article is based on the United Kingdom, but specialist agree the British copied the food and health behaviour of the Americans. In the article you can read how Google influences the health of people all over the world. It is difficult to find the right answers and to do not get emotional influenced by the wrong information. Google already tries to give the best answers for your query. http://online.wsj.com/article_email/SB10001424052702304459804577281842851136290-lMyQjAxMTAyMDEwNDExNDQyWj.html

A2. The internet is in 2020 so personalized that it overwhelms consumers with information that is related to their past internet usage. See the rise of the web 4.0 about how internet collects the data of users and predict what they want to know by using the history of your internet usage. http://sethgodin.typepad.com/seths_blog/2007/01/web4.html Simply go to your own hotmail or YouTube account when you are watching a video or by checking your mail. You will see products from websites you visited in the past. In the book De Datameesters you can read that in North-America there are people that have the fulltime job to collect data from users all day long. By using the internet cookies they can gather information that is useful for other companies. You can also take a look at the commercials when you enter a query in Google. Because users mostly choose the first answer in their query from Google users get overwhelmed with useless advertising information for commercial purpose. Because of the lack of knowledge users can not choose what the right information is to change their lifestyle. The internet is so overwhelmed with personal information that even finding a job is difficult.70% of the HR professionals rejects people by finding information on the internet that is not acceptable for the job. http://reputationrhino.com/what-is-online-reputation-management A3. Suppliers of nutritions could get a high position in determining what is good for consumers. See Nutricias Moeders van nu in this short movie Nutricia shows their customers that they have the knowledge about what is the best for the children of the insecure parents. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eTktp-k6HpQ This is because of the lack of knowledge about health and food and the need for an advisor that is simply trusted.

A4+A5. 2020 the food industry could pretend that the addition of nutrients in food and drinks are good for the nescience consumer/ Manufacturers already claim to know what is good for them. The best example for transparency of the addition of nutrients in food is the Dutch Becel. Becel pretends they sell white bread with the addition of nutrients for brown bread. Research has noticed that this is not true. The bread won the price of most misleading product in stores. http://www.foodwatch.nl/misleid/gouden_windei_verkiezing_2012. In the United Kingdom the government starts an initiative where students in schools get warnings about several E-numbers Some of the E-numbers in products have bad http://www.actiononadditives.com/images2/Additives_pack_primary_student.pdf . influences on the schoolchildren like ADHD or asthma. But the government has the needs to protect the citizens against the manufacturers. There are sites that pronounce what is good for us. http://nutrition.about.com/od/healthyshopping/p/food_ingredient.htm But how can customers find the right site and determine if the information is trustful to use? Nutricias Moeders van nu shows in a television program that they have the knowledge about what is the best for the children of the insecure parents. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eTktp-k6HpQ A6. These manufacturers and suppliers do that by making an indication, how many products should be realized to provide every consumer in their needs, by using consumers insights and information. By using the customer insights, customer data and product selling information, manufacturers can have a competitive advantage. http://blogs.sap.com/wp-content/blogs.dir/15/files/2012/02/EIU_Levelling_The_Playing_Field_1.pdf . In the following article you can read about how you can use data mining techniques for relationship management http://www.huaat.net/download/DMtechniques.pdf. By knowing what your customers want, buy and what they are willing to buy in the future, manufacturers can produce efficiently. A7. Because of the lack of transparency in the market of trading and speculating in futures, food prices could still manually be kept high. In the documentary http://tegenlicht.vpro.nl/afleveringen/2011-2012/speculeren-met-voedsel-en-land/de-voedselspeculant.html showed on the Dutch television from the VPRO the makers of the documentary explain how the prices of the food industry are manually kept high because of the financial needs of investors. By speculating about the food prices in combination with buying futures they make it possible or impossible for others to buy it. The government has started an initiative http://www.cftc.gov with governmental restrictions but it is not sure how this would work because of the enormous power of companies like Goldman Sachs or JPMorgan

SCENARIO 2: THE FOOD PRINT SOCIETY


DMV as a provider of personal needs This part explores the world in 2020 based on a high grade of personalization on the community combined with a high grade of knowledge about food and health. In the recommendation there will be a proposal of what could be a future innovative product for DMV. Assumptions In 2020 people have more knowledge about food and health. Main reason is the increasing transparency of food in North America. People have the knowledge about healthy food and physical activities to maintain a healthy lifestyle. A good example of transparency in food is McDonalds that used to make pink slime from waist meat to manipulate its burgers. Knowing this as a customer led to less eating at McDonalds so they needed to change some things. These examples are not good for the conscious of the society and have led to a critical consumer. Also the need for personalization is high in this individualistic world. People get more medical information about their selves and the selfprevention from people is emerging. There will be a personalized health care system where people can buy help based on what they think they might need in the future. (assumption 1) Consumers are increasingly critical about health and nutrition. (2) In 2020 people are looking for healthy food alternatives (3) and the guise of raw materials is less important for them. Eating because it is a habit no longer exists, eating is pure physiological and functional. The taste and content of food will be more important. (4) Why should there be additions in your food, while you know that this is only for the durability of the best before date and the colour, instead of truly healthy products without additions? The use of additions are meaningless for people because they know what is good for them. Because of the specific demands of consumers it could be that there will be a food deficit or surplus through the absurd demand for specific nutrients. (5) Food suppliers will be exclusive because of the high demand of specific food. (6) People know what is good for them and so there is a high demand for these specific nutrients. There could be ingredient stores (7) where you can buy your own nutrients belonging to your personal needs. Companies could give personal assistance in determining what is good for you and people could use a nutrient meter for their body, just like the old insulin meter, which measures what you do and do not need. (8) People are going to buy a food printer (9) because they know they can control their healthy lifestyle better with the right ingredients. The only problem is that food is getting expensive. (10) With efficient use, the prices relatively stay the same. Finished products are declining as the use of fuel will be too expensive. It is important to make less use of oil. Supermarkets have less power, but will focus more on health, food for the sick, or specialty foods. Drugstores could be under the roof of the supermarkets.

EXPLANATION ASSUMPTIONS SCENARIO 2


A1. There will be a personalized health care system where people can buy help based on what they think they might need in the future. See the example of Unive Zekur https://www.zekur.nl/, a Dutch Health Insurance that is the first health insurance specified where the care you do not need is taken out of the insurance coverage. Normally the insurance covers a lot of meaningless care. For example; why should men pay to be secure of care from a midwife? It is meaningless. The Dutch healthcare system that is actually based on the German health system is the biggest example for North America. A2. Consumers are increasingly critical about health and nutrition. http://www.ehealthmedicare.com/ http://www.eufic.org/article/en/artid/consumer-food-safety/ http://www.foodinsight.org/Content/3840/2011%20IFIC%20FDTN%20Food%20and%20Health%20Survey.pdf

A3. In 2020 people are looking for healthy food alternatives. This article shows alternatives for fat containing foods http://www.nhlbi.nih.gov/health/public/heart/obesity/lose_wt/lcal_fat.htm

A4. The taste and content of food will be more important. http://www.foodinsight.org/Content/3840/2011%20IFIC%20FDTN%20Food%20and%20Health%20Survey.pdf A5+A6. Because of the specific demands of consumers it could be that will be an food deficit or surplus by absurd demand for specific nutrients/ Food suppliers will be exclusively by the high demand of specific food. People have the knowledge about food and health and are getting a helping hand with the food. Because the possibilities are endless with the 3D printer and consumers can add ingredients that are really good for you it is possible that everybody wants the same ingredient. It also could be that nobody wants a specific ingredient. http://www.fao.org/organicag/oa-faq/oa-faq5/en/. http://www.aahf.info/test/pdf/youth_articles/PIIS0749379705003351.pdf

A7. There could be ingredient stores where you can buy your own nutrients belonging to your personal needs. See the example of the Amsterdam ingredient store. http://www.deliciousfood.nl/index.php?menu_id=58 This store has nuts, seeds, diverse pastas, muesli and other products in over 10 different sorts. The food printer makes it possible that everybody can use other products. And more products then there ever were. A8. People could use a nutrient meter for the body that measures what you need and do not need. See the example of the spoon that measures the salt level in your soup http://www2.produktinfo.conrad.com/datenblaetter/5000074999/066216-an-01-fr-T_app_mesure_salinite_temperatur.pdf. But also the information doctors could get by examining the blood of the customer. There already are a lot of products to self prevent you for diseases or other physical problems but also products that give you motivation for sport. A9. People are going to buy a food printer. The development of the food printer is getting better and better. In 2011 the first 3D printer for consumers has already found its place in the displays in some stores in the Netherlands. Philips created some better versions to settle in the consumer market. A10. The only problem is that food is getting expensive Because of the fat taxes http://www.fao.org/organicag/oa-faq/oa-faq5/en/ http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/05/16/healthy-food-expensive-junk-food-cost_n_1521882.html

SCENARIO 3: THE McDONALDs SOCIETY


The bigger the better - a wakeup call for the government This part explores the world in 2020 based on a low grade of personalization of the community combined with a low grade of knowledge about food and health. There will be a proposal in the recommendation of what could be a future based innovative product for DMV. Assumptions In 2020 the Americans will have become bigger and dumber. Mainly because of the lack of knowledge about health and food and the eating habits there is overconsumption of unhealthy products. (assumption 1) Health care systems become too expensive for the Americans (2) because more people will become ill. More than two-third of the population has problems with being overweight or obese and the government will interfere a lot to solve these health problems. (3) Unfortunately there is not a solution for every health problem. Most of the prevention is to be paid to prevent obesity and to support a healthy lifestyle but the lack of knowledge keeps the urge for sugar, convenience food and fast food alive. This is because an ignorant society eats whatever it likes (4) and taste and easiness are the core-values belonging to the eating habits of the North Americans. The government should provide the people with more information. Products could be labelled with a bad-for-your health-label. (5) This is to protect the citizens and to give them the choice to buy healthier products or to be aware of what they buy. The government maintains its role as a watching big brother. Insurances become cheaper for the healthy (6) but being fat comes with a hefty price tag. (7) The government is controlling the conditions of sale through direct restrictions or limits. Weight scales might get integrated in the supermarkets. Weight scales will decide by the LBS of the consumer what the prices of the fat-and sugar rich food will be. The government tries to control the lifestyle of its citizens, but the citizens are looking for other solutions. Instant beauty is wanted! (8) Not only pills for losing weight without moving, but also products that really make you look thinner and more beautiful by using them are the new it-products. The ideal beauty image fades a little. (9) It is accepted by society that models are not skinny any more and are allowed to have wrinkles. (10) The image of obesity is nothing against the image of the models. A lot of people think obese people are unhealthy and are very expensive for the health care system.

EXPLANATION ASSUMPTIONS SCENARIO 3


A1.In 2020 the Americans become bigger and bigger, mainly because of the lack of knowledge about health and food and their eating habits where overconsumption of unhealthy mass products is part of. Several studies have proven that the intake of nutrition may help against diseases and could increase your quality of life http://naldc.nal.usda.gov/download/12538/PDF . The research in this report was done to prove the difference between nutritional intake of low and high poverty. The conclusion of the report is that the low poverty has a lower intake of nutrition. But that does not mean they eat less. In the United States the government yearly spent almost $150 billion against childhood obesity. http://www.letsmove.gov/sites/letsmove.gov/files/TaskForce_on_Childhood_Obesity_May2010_FullReport.pdf .Many schools started with healthier food, but the results of the interference on the food patterns will be known later. Dean D. Krahn, M.D (2011) thedoctorwillseeyounow.com. Addiction, What We Know about Unhealthy Behaviors and How You Can Change Them. http://www.thedoctorwillseeyounow.com/content/addiction/art1966.html

Dietsinreview.com (2012) Why Americans trust themselves when it comes to their health, http://www.dietsinreview.com/diet_column/05/why-americans-trustthemselves-when-it-comes-to-their-health/

NIDDK (2010) Overweight and obesity statistics. http://www.win.niddk.nih.gov.

A2.The health care system becomes too expensive for the Americans. - Reawakening Liberty (2012) Thomas Mullen http://communities.washingtontimes.com/neighborhood/reawakening -liberty/2012/mar/29/why-health-care-so-expensive/

Obamacare: Good for expensive insurance, bad for your health? (2012) Greata van Susteren http://www.foxnews.com/on-air/on-therecord/2012/06/14/obamacare-good-expensive-insurance-badyour-health A3.More than two-third of the population has problems with overweight or obese and the government will interface a lot to solve these health problems. The government started in 2010 with activities to solve the problems with overweight and obese in the United Stated. Not only preventing activities like the support of breastfeeding but also fat and sugar taxes. USA Today (2012). An overweight America comes with a hefty price tag. http://www.usatoday.com/news/health/2003-05-13obesity-usat_x.htm "The fact that Medicaid and Medicare, and ultimately taxpayers, are financing half the cost lends credence to the notion that obesity is not solely a personal issue." ABC (2012) Ads use obese kids to scare parents http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pY6XBhdP-1M "Being fat takes the fun out of being a kid" Extension Journal (2011). Need for Integrated Parenting and Nutrition Programs. http://www.joe.org/joe/2011april/tt5.php

A4.But the lack of knowledge keeps the hunger for sugar and fat rich fast-food alive.An ignorant society eats whatever it likes. Extension Journal (2011). Need for Integrated Parenting and Nutrition Programs. http://www.joe.org/joe/2011april/tt5.php Parents reported that lacking knowledge about nutrition limits their ability to buy, prepare, or introduce their children to healthier foods (Birkett, Johnson, Thompson, & Oberg, 2004). A5.Because of the government litigation against producers of unhealthy substances, producers must mark their products with a bad for your health label. Julie A. Caswell & Eliza M. Mojduszka (1996). Using informational labelling to influence the market for Quality in food products. In the United States, the federal government is increasingly using requirements for informational labelling on food products to influence consumers knowledge and purchasing patterns and manufacturers products offerings and marketing practises. Chicago Tribune (2012). Politicians, health advocates seek transparency, restrictions in food stamp program http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2012-06-20/news/ct-nw-foodstamp-spending-20120620_1_food-stamp-junk-food-supplementalnutrition-assistance-program Goal is for better accounting of billions spent, healthier choices Some politicians and health advocates want that to change, saying restricting food stamp purchases to healthier items would encourage better diets, reduce health care costs and make better use of precious tax dollars.

A6.Insurances become cheaper for healthy people People who are able to be disciplined and lose weight should be rewarded," said Topol. Cheap whole life insurance for healthy people(2012) Beneficial Times http://beneficialfinance.net/cheap-whole-life-insurance-healthypeople.htm People must have the choice to be ensured against whatever they want and dont want A7.But being fat comes with a hefty price tag USA Today (2012). An overweight America comes with a hefty price tag. http://www.usatoday.com/news/health/2003-05-13obesity-usat_x.htm "As the population ages and the prevalence of obesity continues to rise, medicare is going to be picking up the health care tab for these people." Phalanx Investment Partners LLC. Forbes.com (2012). Is A Fat Tax In America's Future? http://www.forbes.com/sites/davidmaris/2012/04/19/is-a-taxon-obesity-in-americas-future/ 1 in 3 Americans believe that obese people should pay more in taxes than healthy weight people In addition, a higher percentage of Americans believe we should tax obese people rather than tax high-fat and high-sugar foods. Us government info (2012). Big Brother - Thinner Brother, http://usgovinfo.about.com/cs/consumer/a/aathinner.htm

The people ruining our health care economics [the obese] would pay the standard tax." A8.Instant beauty is wanted FIT Master (2010) Beauty 2020: The future of beauty. http://www.fitnyc.edu/files/pdfs/CFMM_Beauty2010.pdf Her iBeautyFINDER can even make every day a good hair day by recommending the right product based on her environment. A9.The ideal beauty image fades FIT Master (2010) Beauty 2020: The future of beauty. http://www.fitnyc.edu/files/pdfs/CFMM_Beauty2010.pdf In 2020, women will no longer want to be told what to look like. The narrow Western beauty idea of young, thin, and blond will no longer be true. Instead, women will want and will require being part of the conversation, rather than just the recipient of the message. A10. It is accepted that models are not skinny anymore, models are bigger and are allowed to have wrinkles. FIT Master (2010) Beauty 2020: The future of beauty. http://www.fitnyc.edu/files/pdfs/CFMM_Beauty2010.pdf She will be more likable, more reliable, and more real than previous generations. She will embrace her perfectly imperfect self, realizing that its really all about how she defines herself at any given moment in time. Womens Health (2011) Can you be healthy at any size? http://www.womenshealthmag.com/health/fat-acceptance The rising fat acceptance movement says being overweight isnt necessarily bad for youand some doctors agree.

SCENARIO 4: DECENTRALIZED DEVELOPMENT SOCIETY


We do it ourselves together This part explores the world in 2020 based on a low grade of personalization and a high grade of knowledge in the community about food and health. Assumptions The society is transparent. (assumption 1) Business strategies of organizations and the government are user centered and they are in service of the consumer, (2) because the consumer has the knowledge and is suspicious about chaotic food chains and health care. Sharing of information and knowledge is easy and is done en masse (3) so research can easily be done by people themselves. Thus every individual does contribute in this period that is also known for its fast development in knowledge and possibilities. Trust in the government and organizations is relatively low, the consumers have the knowledge and adapt by taking control of their own matters. By this critical attitude unhealthy food, whose production process is wasteful and harmful and is being supplied by producers that are not transparent and honest, is massively rejected. Large organizations are being tested and forced to follow a transparent strategy and if necessary, to change their complete production process. (4) The process of food production cannot be adjusted quickly enough to the demand for fair and healthy products. Many food organizations are forced into bankruptcy. (5) Especially the market for meat (and therefore the wheat market too) are collapsing. Meat becomes a luxury product with strict requirements. (6) Animal proteins are expensive and hard to obtain and the demand for alternative, (high quality) proteins is high and still growing. (7) There is abundance of land that was formerly used for mass production of meat. (8) Governments initiate projects to use the abundance of agricultural land for mass production of basic nutrients from plant products or products derived from animals (E.G. dairy, eggs, etc.) to provide the world of food. Healthcare is being criticized for its closed attitude to consumers and medical professionals start sharing their knowledge and are more transparent towards the consumer. Detection of diseases and disorders can easily be done by consumers themselves. The food production in this slightly socialistic society continues in the process of decentralization. The regional environment is important because that is where more of your daily food find its source. Food is regionally bonded and the citizens are becoming aware of the fact that they depend on the agricultural hinterland. (9) Being together is a daily, healthy activity and eating together is normal. (10)

EXPLANATION ASSUMPTIONS SCENARIO 3


A1.The society is transparent. GOP(2010) A PLEDGE TO AMERICA http://www.scribd.com/cbsnews/d/37958976-GOP-Pledge-toAmerica We pledge to make the government more transparent in its actions, careful in its stewardship, and honest in its dealings. We will fight to ensure transparency and accountability in Congress and throughout government. The American people do not accept these counsels of timidity, failure, and despair. In town halls and on public squares, in every corner of this country, people have gathered and spoken out in small groups and larger crowds, through phone calls and in letters, through websites and new technologies BARACK OBAMA (-)Transparency and Open Government http://www.whitehouse.gov/the_press_office/TransparencyandOpe nGovernment My Administration is committed to creating an unprecedented level of openness in Government. We will work together to ensure the public trust and establish a system of transparency, public participation, and collaboration. Openness will strengthen our democracy and promote efficiency and effectiveness in Government.

A2.Business strategies of organizations and the government are user centred and they are in service of the consumer. GOP (2010) A PLEDGE TO AMERICA http://www.scribd.com/cbsnews/d/37958976-GOP-Pledge-toAmerica A3.Sharing of information and knowledge is easy and is done en masse. Sciencedaily (2012) 'Cloud' Computing Technology Should Make Sharing Medical Images Easier and More Efficient http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/04/120430135915.ht m "It gives the patient ownership over their records and makes the information more accessible to physicians. BARACK OBAMA (-)Transparency and Open Government http://www.whitehouse.gov/the_press_office/TransparencyandOpe nGovernment Transparency promotes accountability and provides information for citizens about what their Government is doing. Information maintained by the Federal Government is a national asset. My Administration will take appropriate action, consistent with law and policy, to disclose information rapidly in forms that the public can readily find and use. Executive departments and agencies should harness new technologies to put information about their operations and decisions online and readily available to the public. Executive departments and agencies should also solicit public feedback to identify information of greatest use to the public.

A4. Large organizations are being tested and forced to follow a transparent strategy and if necessary, to change their complete production process. Foodnews (2012) GMOs making Americans fat http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=19_VSXWh3t4 Jeffrey Smith, the author of Seeds of Deception, points to the mass production and consumption of genetically modified foods in the U.S. as a possible source of the problem. See example of Dutch dairy plans: LTO Nederland (2011) Melkveehouderij midden in de maatschappij. http://www.lto.nl/media/default.aspx/emma/org/10709400/11051 8+LTO+NL-melkveehouderij-def-webversie.pdf A5. The process of food production cannot be adjusted quickly enough to the demand for fair and healthy products and many food organizations are forced into bankruptcy. Louise Fresco on feeding the whole world (2010) http://www.ted.com/talks/louise_fresco_on_feeding_the_whole_w orld.html International Food Policy Research Institute (2001). 2020 Global Food Outlook http://www.fcrn.org.uk/sites/default/files/fpr30_0.pdf Steps toward a future of global food security will have enormous payoffs worldwide, offering all people a higher quality of life and greater economic potential. In contrast, if decision makers fail to reform key policies or make adequate investmentsor even if they reduce policy efforts slightly from those described in the baseline scenariothe costs in terms of human misery and wasted potential will be enormous.

A6. Meat becomes a luxury product with strict requirements. Futureagenda (-) Alternative proteins http://www.futureagenda.org/pg/cx/view#390 In 2009, Dutch scientists, supported by government funding, grew meat in the laboratory using cells from a live pig and they are now also focused on using chicken cells. Cost wise, current estimates suggest that, with likely technology improvements, in vitro meat would be about twice the price of conventional chicken but with the advantage that only the bits that we want are grown rather than the whole chicken. A7. Animal proteins are expensive and hard to obtain and the demand for alternative, (high quality) proteins is high and still growing. Futureagenda (-) Alternative proteins http://www.futureagenda.org/pg/cx/view#390 The fact is, we need other alternatives and the main focus is on manufacturing proteins. As highlighted by Jim Kirkwood in the initial perspective on the future of food: The development of nonmeat, high-protein foods as meat alternatives or acceptable protein vegetable alternatives could help us more efficiently meet the increasing world protein demand. A8.There is abundance of land that was formerly used for mass production of meat. Well-fed world (2000) feeding the world to 2020. http://awellfedworld.org/sites/awellfedworld.org/files/pdf/BR2020. pdf

Reduced meat consumption will drastically increase plant-based food availability, while reducing prices of primary grains, soy and other feed (as global demand decreases). Reduced meat consumption also protects the land, air and water. Of note, reduced meat consumption will reduce global warming and its consequences. International Food Policy Research Institute (2001). 2020 Global Food Outlook http://www.fcrn.org.uk/sites/default/files/fpr30_0.pdf When the meat production will be decreasing in a fast way. You can see in the report how many land is used to provide the world in their demand for food (and cereals).

Shocks to agriculture, particularly failure to meet farmers needs for water and other inputs, could push food prices up significantly. Futureagenda (-) Local foods http://www.futureagenda.org/pg/cx/view#419 Especially as diets change and increasing numbers of us consume more meat, the knock-on effects on other foods as well as on water and farming mean that in many parts of the world there will be conflicting pressures around land use.

A9.Food is regionally bonded and the population in cities is becoming aware of the fact that they depend on the agricultural hinterland. Futureagenda (-) Local foods http://www.futureagenda.org/pg/cx/view#419 Around the world, people and governments are starting to shift urban farming up the list of priorities to a point where it will have a significant impact on parts of the food system. We need to produce more food. We need to do it sustainably. And we need to make sure that what we eat safeguards our health. Across the world, countries are taking the food security issue very seriously and the goal of increasing the amount of locally produced food is a key component. Curiosity.com (-) 10 Quirky Facts About Mass-produced Food http://curiosity.discovery.com/topic/everyday-science/10-quirky-facts-about-mass-produced-food.html Wandering through a modern grocery store, it's easy to forget there was a time when all food was local. People baked their own bread, churned their own butter and slaughtered their own chickens, or else they bought these staples from a small, local supplier. A10. Being together is a daily, healthy activity and eating together is normal. Green Dean (2012). Eat Together for Better Health http://greendean.com.au/green/eat-together-for-better-healt/ Recent research findings are confirming what most people and many cultures have known for perhaps t thousands of years that eating together with family and friends is better for your health and wellbeing. Futureagenda (-) community living http://www.futureagenda.org/pg/cx/view#412 At the same time, within each local area, the rise of community hubs where people can connect both socially and for work is expected to increase.

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