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October 29, 2012 Page 1
!": LllsabeLh Þearson, uCA and 8ebecca Þearcev, Creaa for Covernor#
$%"&: uavld 8adloff and uan CasLleman
'()*: CcLober 29, 2012
+,&&(%-: lndlana Covernor and SenaLe races boLh compeLlLlve headlna lnLo Lhe flnal week

1hls survev was conducLed from CcLober 24
Lh
Lhrouah 26
Lh
amona llkelv voLers sLaLewlde ln
lndlana. Llve operaLors connecLed voLers ln Lhe sample Lo an auLomaLed poll, whlch enabled us
Lo approprlaLelv conLacL boLh cell phones and landllnes. We use full voLer flle records for
evervone aL each phone number Lo maLch and welahL Lhe sample, whlch ls more accuraLe and
provldes hlaher quallLv resulLs Lhan oLher meLhods. 1hls survev has a sample slze of 823
lndlvldual voLers and a maraln of error of +/- 3.36° aL 93° confldence lnLerval.
1he resulLs are remarkablv poslLlve for Lhe uemocraLlc candldaLes ln boLh Covernor and SenaLe
races. ln splLe of a +7° 8epubllcan ÞarLv self-ldenLlflcaLlon advanLaae lncludlna leaners on Lhe
welahLed Lopllnes, !ohn Creaa has pulled wlLhln Lhe maraln of error aL -3° on Lhe lnlLlal head Lo
head wlLh 44° Lo 47° for Mlke Þence and 9° undeclded.
.*-#$/01/023##
• ln Lhe SenaLe race, !oe uonnellv has a sLaLlsLlcallv slanlflcanL lead aL 49° for a +7°
maraln over 8lchard Mourdock whose recenL remarks hlahllahL slanlflcanL room for
arowLh for oLher uemocraLs ln Lhe sLaLe.
• When asked abouL Lhelr sLance on aborLlon onlv 14° of respondenLs sav aborLlon
should alwavs be llleaal wlLh no excepLlons for rape (verv slmllar number Lo polls we
have conducLed ln Mlssourl) - Lhls ls kev as Lo whv we see such bla effecLs on race
dvnamlcs even ln soclallv conservaLlve sLaLes when boLh 8lchard Mourdock and 1odd
Akln publlcallv express such exLreme poslLlons on women's rlahLs.
• Creaa's messaalna ls acLuallv more convlnclna Lo llkelv voLers, wlLh 38° savlna aL leasL
'somewhaL convlnclna', compared Lo 32° who sav Lhe same for Þence's messaalna (ln
splLe of hlahllahLlna hls proposed 10° Lax cuL).
• AfLer recelvlna boLh candldaLe's messaalna Creaa acLuallv Lakes a +2 lead wlLh 43° Lo
Þence's 43° and 12° now undeclded.
ulLlmaLelv Lhe race for Covernor ln lndlana ls an exLremelv close, fluld race and lf !ohn Creaa
can aeL hls messaae ln fronL of a few more voLers ln Lhe closlna week Lhls race could be veL
anoLher surprlse uemocraLlc vlcLorv ln a solldlv red sLaLe Lhls vear.

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