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CONTINGENCY AND RISK ANALYSIS

CONTINGENCIES (provisions for own cost overrun)


Contingency value
ESTIMATED COST %
1) Material and equipment 0.00%
2) Manufacturing
3) Engineering 0.00%
4) Outside erection, comm. and start-up 0.00%
5) Project management 0.00%
6) Other special direct costs 0.00%

Contingency value (to be included in the full cost calculation)


Contingency value (%)

RISKS (provisions for other identified risks, e.g. political etc.)


Risk provision
Risk factor EXPOSURE %
1)
2)
3)
4)
5)
6)

Total risk provision (to be included in the full cost calculation)


Total risk provision (%)
tingency value
Amount
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
#DIV/0!

isk provision
Amount
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
#DIV/0!
The purpose of the Scenario analysis is to illustrate the "what if" effects. The bid case shall show what is included in the bid, e.g the amounts in
A2, B2 and C2 shall in the bid case column be the amounts included in the full cost estimate. The best and worst case shall show the upside and
downside of the project. Both best and worst case shall be realistic. Please note that for the worst case situation it is expected that all
consequenses shall be incorporated. I.e. if the project is 30 days delayed, it is not likely that the only costs incurred are the delay penalties.

SCENARIO ANALYSIS BID CASE BEST CASE WORST CASE

I. ASSUMPTIONS

A1) Cost over- / underrun (in % of cost)


1) Material and Equipment
2) Manufacturing
3) Engineering
4) Outside erection, comm. and start-up
5) Project management
6) Other special direct costs

B1) Other identified costs (in % or amount)


1)
2)
3)

C1) Guarantee/ rework cost assumption


1)
2)
3)

D1) Schedule - Delay (number of days)

E1) Process guarantees (in % or other)

II. SCENARIO NET RESULTS based on above assumptions


(All amounts in tender currency)
NET RESULT BID CASE #REF! #REF! #REF!

A2) Cost over- / underrun -> consequences of A1


1) Material and Equipment
2) Manufacturing
3) Engineering
4) Outside erection, comm. and start-up
5) Project management
6) Other special direct costs

B2) Other identified costs -> consequences of B1


1)
2)
3)

C2) Guarantee / rework costs -> consequences of C1


1)
2)
3)

D2) Delay penalties (Liquidated damages) -> consequences of D1

E2) Process guarantees -> consequences of E1

COST COVERAGE AND NET RESULT EFFECT


Reversal of the Contingency, Risk and Warranty provisions
included in Full Cost Calculation

NET RESULT OF SCENARIOS #REF!


Material Cash Flow Table
Prepare by : PERIOD ----------------- 1 2
Item Description Sales price Cost price IN OUT IN OUT

Grand Total 0 0 0 0 0 0
3 4 5 6 7
IN OUT IN OUT IN OUT IN OUT IN OUT

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
8 9 10 11 12
IN OUT IN OUT IN OUT IN OUT IN OUT

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1,424,441 766,973 969,920 1,142,879 1,265,820 1,900,015 2,422,282
13 14 15
IN OUT IN OUT IN OUT

0 0 0 0 0 0
2,567,890 5,144,028 4,331,738 3,899,442 4,166,585 3,232,164
16 17 18 19
IN OUT IN OUT IN OUT IN OUT

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
3,275,705 3,379,860 3,238,917 3,338,540 5,020,512 8,178,599 7,880,383 7,147,180
20 21 22 23 24
IN OUT IN OUT IN OUT IN OUT IN OUT

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
7,005,697 6,222,383 7,393,147 4,119,341
Accumulated Gross Paid Result

0.95

0.9

0.85

0.8

0.75

0.7

0.65

0.6

0.55

0.5

0.45

0.4

0.35

0.3

0.25

0.2

0.15

0.1

0.05

0
Row 1
CASH-FLOW
Project name: North Helwan 4 Stations Period -> 1 2 3
Country: Egypt
Currency: EGP Milestones ->
Responsible: Mohamed Moneim
Date: 6/3/2000
A . "CASH FLOW"

Cash In

Openning Balance 0 0 0
Payments received (incl. calc. interest on advances) 0 0 0
Other Cash In
Total Cash IN 0 0 0

Cash Out
- Material
- Enineering (Manpower)
- Erection
- Commissioning
- Training
- Special Selling Cost
- Finance Cost
- Paid Sales & Admin Cost
- Others
= Direct Cost Paid 0 0 0
- Project costs incurred, but not paid
= Exposure A 0 0 0
B. OTHER EXPOSURE DURING DELIVERY PERIOD
- Committed project costs
+ Covered by cancellation
= Cancellation costs 0 0 0
+ Residual Value
+ Insurance Coverage (incl. Export Guarantee Institute)
- Rest exposure on On-demand guarantees
= Exposure B 0 0 0
C. RESIDUAL RISK ON FINANCING
- Net Present Value of Residual Risk on Financing
= Exposure C 0 0 0
= Total Project Exposure (PE) (A+B+C) 0 0 0
CALCULATION OF POLITICAL RISK PROVISION FOR FINANCING
Net Present Value of Residual Risk on Financing 0 0 0
Net Present Value of Retention Money
Total NPV 0 0 0
Political Risk Provision for Financing/Retention Money

Total Cash Out 0 0 0

Cash Balance 0 0 0

Summary Of Cashflow
Opening Balance 0 0 0
Cash In 0 0 0
Cash Out 0 0 0
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ---------------------- ---------------------- ----------------------
Balance 0 0 0

Max Project Exposure (A+B+C) 0


In Period #VALUE!

MAPE for this country


4

0
0

0
0

0
0
0
----------------------
0
5 6 7 8

0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
---------------------- ---------------------- ---------------------- ----------------------
0 0 0 0
9 10 11 12 13 14 15

0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
---------------------- ---------------------- ---------------------- ---------------------- ---------------------- ---------------------- ----------------------
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
16 17 18 19 20 21 22

0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
---------------------- ---------------------- ---------------------- ---------------------- ---------------------- ---------------------- ----------------------
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
23 24

0 0
0 0 0

0 0

0 ###
0 -284000
0 -565000
0 -104000
0 -208000
0 -1280
0 -347000
0

0 0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0
0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0
0 0
0 0
---------------------- ----------------------
0 0
Total Project Exposure

1
1

1
0

0
0

0
0

0
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D E F G H K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z AA
Risk Analysis Checklist
(Optional. All boxes are extendible. Add rows if necessary.)

Project:
Date: 1/23/2009 RISK MITIGATION
App. 2 RISK FACTOR REMARKS Risk Provision Contingency Contract Insurance Co-suppliers
2.0 SCOPE OF WORK
1
2
3
4
3.0 CUSTOMER AND CUSTOMER COUNTRY
1
2
3
4
4.0 CONSORTIUM/JOINT VENTURE
1
2
3
4
5.0 BASIS FOR EXECUTION
1
2
3
4
6.0 CONTRACTUAL ISSUES
1
2
3
4
7.0 PRICE
1
2
3
4
8.0 CASH FLOW/PAYMENT
1
2
3
4
9.0 OTHER IMPORTANT ISSUES
1
2
3
4
Risk Analysis Checklist EXAMPLE
(Optional. All boxes are extendible. Add rows if necessary.)
Project:
Date: 1/23/2009 RISK MITIGATION
App. 2 RISK FACTOR REMARKS Risk Provision Contingency Contract Insurance Co-suppliers
2.0 SCOPE OF WORK
1 Scope of Work definition Good condition. X X
2 Engineering Minor risks, typical work. X
3 Procurement Worldwide procurement. Client purchased
equipment. X
4 Construction By consortium partner. X X
3.0 CUSTOMER AND CUSTOMER COUNTRY
1
2
3
4
4.0 CONSORTIUM/JOINT VENTURE
1 JV organisation risks Working with consortium partner. X
2
3
4
5.0 BASIS FOR EXECUTION
1 Site conditions X
2 Project logistics X
6.0 CONTRACTUAL ISSUES
1 Defects in warranty period X
2 Reperformance of engineering X
3 Reperformance of construction X X
4 Consequential losses Waived.
5 Damage to client property liabilities Proposed reciprocal indemnities. X
6 Damage to contract works liabilities X
7 Third party liabilities X
8 Technology ownership and use X
9 Liability for pollution Qualified. X
10 Overall limit of liability Proposed.
7.0 PRICE
1 Completeness of data for equipment,
engineering and commissioning Well known. X
2 Labour costs By consortium partner. X X
3 Freight costs X
4 Currency exposure To be hedged. X
8.0 CASH FLOW/PAYMENT
1
2
3
4
9.0 OTHER IMPORTANT ISSUES
1
2
3
4