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MEMORANDUM

TO: FROM: SUBJECT:

INTERESTED PARTIES ROBERT BLIZZARD – PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES RECENT NY CD-21 POLLING DATA

DATE: OCTOBER 30, 2012 ____________________________________________________________________________________ As you know, Public Opinion Strategies recently conducted a survey of 400 likely voters in New York Congressional District 21 on behalf of the Matt Doheny for Congress Campaign. The poll was conducted October 24-25, 2012 and has a margin of error of +/- 5% in 95 out of 100 cases. KEY DATA  Bill Owens is an extremely vulnerable incumbent. Just 38% of voters in the district believe that Bill Owens deserves re-election, with a nearly identical 37% who say it’s time for a new person. As nearly a quarter of North Country voters remain unsure (23%) about whether Owens deserves re-election or not, this has to be troubling news for the incumbent Congressman with a week to go until Election Day.  Voters still want a Republican Congressman as a check-and-balance on Obama’s policies. Fully 45% believe it is more important to elect a Republican who will be a check and balance to President Obama’s policies and programs, while just 37% say it is more important to elect a Democrat who will support President Obama’s policies and programs. This eight-point margin is unchanged from our previous poll (47% GOP/check-and-balance vs. 39% DEM/support Obama). This race remains a dead heat. According to our polling, among those voters most likely to turnout on Election Day, the race remains a statistical dead heat. In early October, Doheny trailed among these voters 43%-44%. Today, that’s virtually unchanged, with Doheny trailing by a narrow 40%-42% margin. Don’t believe the public polls – the race for Congress is completely wide open. Public polls have notoriously miscalculated this race in the past, with some showing Doheny losing to Owens by as many as eleven points in October 2010. Obviously, that wasn’t close to the final result on Election Day.

BOTTOM LINE With nearly 20% of likely voters undecided about who they’ll support for Congress – this race is wide open. However, given the vulnerability in Owens’ numbers and voters’ wanting a check-and-balance type Republican in Washington, Matt Doheny remains in good shape heading into the final week of this neck-and-neck campaign.
PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Page 1