SISMADEN OpenSoftware p InfrastructureforEarlyWarning Systems S stems

www.dpi.inpe.br/sismaden/english
LarcioMassaruNamikawa Eymar Silva Sampaio Lopes EymarSilvaSampaioLopes JooBoscoCouradosReis ThiagoLoboCordeiro

EarlyWarningSystem Early Warning System

NaturalDisaster Natural Disaster Risks Vulnerable Areas

Weather/ Environment Environment Observationsand Forecasts

Extreme Event

Spatial Spat a Analysis

Additional Information

Alerts

EarlyWarningSystem Early Warning System Requirements

DynamicData minutestodays D i D t i t t d reliable,updated,online,forecasted StaticRiskMaps monthstoyears correctscale,updated correct scale, updated RiskModel Probabilitybasedondynamicandstaticdata P b bilit b d d i d t ti d t Actions centralandlocalgovernment,civildefense,local communities,plans

System System Architecture

SIStema deMonitoramento eAlerta deDEsastres Naturais

OpenSourceCode GNU Li O S C d GNULicense Availableatwww.dpi.inpe.br/sismaden/english

Features
Configurablethroughuserinterfaces: C fi bl th h i t f Dynamicdatasourcesandformats Riskmodels Webmapserver Web map server Usermanagement Datamanagement D t t StudyModule

System System Architecture

System System Architecture

System System Architecture

WeatherData fromINPECPTEC Centerfor WeatherForecastandClimateStudies

Grid format (Grads, TIFF ( , image, ASCII-text) - Hydro estimator - Lightning - Weather Radar - ETA forecast model

Points (ASCII-text)
Data Collection Platforms

Precipitationbysatellite Hydroestimator GOESImageryevery15min Availableasmm/hour

File 1

n observation files with 1 band each

File 2 File 3 File n- current

Risk Polygon

Forecast ETAModel
2runs/day(0hand12h) Valuesinmm/hour(eta5x5km) Valuesinmm/6hours(eta20x20km) Values in mm/6 hours (eta 20 x 20 km)
1 file with n bands

Risk Polygon

minutes

RiskMapsandGrids Risk Maps and Grids

RiskMaps:polygonswithattributes Ri k M l ith tt ib t

Grids:Elevation,Slope
Inserted in the database using:

AdditionalMaps Additional Maps

Vectordata rivers,roads,pipelines,urbanareas,...

Raster(gridsandbackgroundimages) Raster (grids and background images)

CBERS-2 CCD, Minas Gerais, Brazil

Brasilia: HRC + CCD

Inserted in database using :

CaseStudy Objectives
Monitor and create early warnings related M it d t l i l t d extreme precipitation events in Angra dos Reis region, as part of th study case using municipalities i t f the t d i i i liti of So Paulo, Rio de Janeiro and Minas Gerais states. Study Data St d D t are observations and f b ti d forecasts f th t for the period between 28th December, 2009 and 2nd January, 2010 J 2010.

CaseStudy: AngradosReis NewYear20092010

63deathsinRiodeJaneiro 63 deaths in Rio de Janeiro State 21 at Morro da Carioca 32 at Praia do Bananal

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0 12/27/2009 00:00:00 12/27/2009 08:00:00 12/27/2009 16:00:00 12/28/2009 00:00:00 12/28/2009 08:00:00 12/28/2009 16:00:00 12/29/2009 00:00:00 12/29/2009 08:00:00 12/29/2009 16:00:00 12/30/2009 00:00:00 12/30/2009 08:00:00 12/30/2009 16:00:00 12/31/2009 00:00:00 12/31/2009 08:00:00 12/31/2009 16:00:00 01/01/2010 00:00:00 01/01/2010 08:00:00 01/01/2010 16:00:00 01/02/2010 00:00:00 01/02/2010 08:00:00 01/02/2010 16:00:00 01/03/2010 00:00:00

ObservationData:PluviometeratAngradosReis g

31/12/2009 9:00

100 mm total rain in 24h

Source: Eletronuclear

Hourly Chuva Horria

Total 24h Chuva Acum.24h

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0 12/27/2009 00:00:00 12/27/2009 08:00:00 12/27/2009 16:00:00 12/28/2009 00:00:00 12/28/2009 08:00:00 12/28/2009 16:00:00 12/29/2009 00:00:00 12/29/2009 08:00:00 12/29/2009 16:00:00 12/30/2009 00:00:00 12/30/2009 08:00:00 12/30/2009 16:00:00 12/31/2009 00:00:00 12/31/2009 08:00:00 12/31/2009 16:00:00 01/01/2010 00:00:00 01/01/2010 08:00:00 01/01/2010 16:00:00 01/02/2010 00:00:00 01/02/2010 08:00:00 01/02/2010 16:00:00 01/03/2010 00:00:00

31/12/2009 16:00

140 mm total rain in 24h

PluviometeratAngradosReis g

Source: Eletronuclear

Hourly Chuva Horria

Total 24h Chuva Acum.24h

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0 12/27/2009 00:00:00 12/27/2009 08:00:00 12/27/2009 16:00:00 12/28/2009 00:00:00 12/28/2009 08:00:00 12/28/2009 16:00:00 12/29/2009 00:00:00 12/29/2009 08:00:00 12/29/2009 16:00:00 12/30/2009 00:00:00 12/30/2009 08:00:00 12/30/2009 16:00:00 12/31/2009 00:00:00 12/31/2009 08:00:00 12/31/2009 16:00:00 01/01/2010 00:00:00 01/01/2010 08:00:00 01/01/2010 16:00:00 01/02/2010 00:00:00 01/02/2010 08:00:00 01/02/2010 16:00:00 01/03/2010 00:00:00

01/01/2009 8:00

173 mm total rain in 24h

PluviometeratAngradosReis g

Source: Eletronuclear

Hourly Chuva Horria

Total 24h Chuva Acum.24h

Forecast Data: Total rain in 24 hs forecasted for 01/JAN/2010 - ETA-20 km 24hs in advance Red: total rain > 100 mm/day

Dearuser, Therehasbeenachangeinthewarninglevelofoneormorezonesintheriskmapofa analysisassociatedtoyou.Seebelowthefullreportofchanges: l i i t dt S b l th f ll t f h AnalysisName:Analise_Municipios_Hidroestimador RiskZones ID Nome 01 AngradosReis d 02 IlhaGrande 03 Parati

Final Product: Warning

PreviousWarningLevel 2 2 1

CurrentWarningLevel 3 3 2

Attached Image 31/12/2009 14:00 h

Maximum Alert

Alert

Attention

Observation

AnalysisExample:totalrain+forecasted
Define warning level if total rain now is 45 mm in the last 6 hours and forecasted rain is 20 mm more in the next 4 hours? Precipitation by satellite Hydroestimator - GOES Images every 15 minutes - Values in mm/hour

Forecast ETA Model - Runs: 2 x /day (0h and 12h GMT) - Values in mm/hour (ETA 5 x 5 km)

localvar1=prec_historico_grid(hidro',6) localvar2=maximo_eta(eta5km',4) l l 2 i t ( t 5k ' 4)

local var3 = var1 + var2
Total rain in 6 hours

Forecasted rain in 4 hours

The past

Current Time

The future

localvar1=prec_historico_grid(hidro',6) localvar2=maximo_eta( eta5km 4) local var2 = maximo eta (eta5km',4)

local var3 = var1 + var2
Total rain in 6 hours

Forecasted rain in 4 hours

The past

Current Time

The future

localvar1=maximo_eta(eta5km',4) localvar2=prec_historico_grid( hidro 6) local var2 = prec historico grid (hidro',6)

local var3 = var1 + var2

Total rain in 6 hours

Forecasted rain in 4 hours

The past

Current Time

The future

MunicipalitiesLocalization SP,MGandRJStates Municipalities Localization SP, MG and RJ States

LEGEND:
Angra dos Reis Municipalities State borders

Analysis
local max_prec = prec_historico_grid('hidro', 24) or 0 local prev24h = maximo_eta('eta5km', 12) if max prec == nil then max_prec max_prec = 0 end if prev24h == nil then prev24h = 0 end local chuvaTotal = max_prec + prev24h if chuvaTotal == nil or chuvaTotal < 50 then return 0 elseif chuvaTotal < 100 then return 1 elseif chuvaTotal < 120 then return 2 elseif chuvaTotal < 140 then return 3 else return 4 end

WritteninLua tte ua

Analysis Hidro24hrs ETA12hrs

Analysis
local chuvaAcumulada = 0 local pcd = influencia_pcd('PCD') for i, v in ipairs(pcd) do chuvaAcumulada = chuvaAcumulada + ( soma_historico_pcd('PCD', 'prec', v,72) ) end print(nome, ' ',chuvaAcumulada, ' ') if chuvaAcumulada < 50 then return 0 elseif chuvaAcumulada < 100 then return 1 elseif chuvaAcumulada < 140 then return 2 elseif chuvaAcumulada < 160 then return 3 else return 4 end DCP Cumulated Rain Analysis local chuvaAcumulada = 0 local pcd=influencia_pcd('PCD') for i v in ipairs(pcd) do i,v chuvaAcumulada = chuvaAcumulada + (soma_historico_pcd('PCD', 'prec', v, 24)) end local prev24h = maximo eta('eta5km' 24) maximo_eta('eta5km', if prev24h == nil then prev24h = 0 end local chuvaTotal = chuvaAcumulada + prev24h if chuvaTotal == nil or chuvaTotal < 80 then return 0 elseif chuvaTotal < 120 then return 1 elseif chuvaTotal < 140 then return 2 elseif chuvaTotal < 160 then return 3 else return 4 end PCD24hrs ETA24hrs Analysis Conditioned - to be executed only if the previous analysis reaches a pre-defined total rain

CaseStudyconclusions
Gradualevolutionofthe numberofwarnings. Itispossibletoidentifywith 18hoursinadvancethehigh risk(MaximumAlertinRed) k( l d) fortheRegionmunicipalities, includingAngradosReis. Importanceofinvestingin monitoringnaturaldisasters anddefiningriskmaps. g p Capabilitytooverlayrealtime weatherdataand vulnerabilitydata.

SummaryandCollaborationOpportunities Summary and Collaboration Opportunities

Usersfromlocaltonational/regional/global U f l lt ti l/ i l/ l b l individuals,NGOs,Government Implementedatsomecivilprotectionagenciesand companies Continuousimprovements Version2.0 Opensourcecodemodel Open source code model InterfaceandmanualsinPortuguese anyhelpis welcome Availableatwww.dpi.inpe.br/sismaden/english

Availableat www.dpi.inpe.br/sismaden/english
SourceCode S C d Installationfiles:LinuxandWindows VirtualMachine:VirtualBox FullLinuxwith Webserver Manuals:Users,Installation,Codedocumentation Tutorial Course:fromcreatingriskmapstousingwarnings ExampleofWarningwebpage

Thankyou! Thank you!

laercio@dpi.inpe.br eymar@dpi.inpe.br eymar@dpi inpe br joaoreis@dpi.inpe.br cordeiro@dsr.inpe.br http://www.dpi.inpe.br/sismaden/english/