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TO: FROM: DATE: RE:

Interested Parties Project New America and USAction November 3, 2012 New Statewide Poll in Iowa Shows President Obama up by Three

A statewide telephone survey of 500 likely voters in Iowa was conducted by Grove Insight November 12, 2012 using professional interviewers. Quotas were set to ensure calling into cell phone only households. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.4 percentage points at the 95% level of confidence.

Close race in Iowa, though Obama leads the early vote Barack Obama has a slim, three-point lead over Mitt Romney (47% to 44%) in Iowa. As in many other states, Obama is leading among the early vote here (59% to 33%). One reason the race is tight here is that voters are divided over which candidate has a concrete plan to move America forward (43% Obama, 41% Romney), though the President has the edge for rebuilding the economy for the middle class (45% to 39%). As we have seen elsewhere, voters are increasingly

Presidential Vote Iowa

80% 60% 40% 20%

+3 47% 44%

1%
0%

8%

starting to question the veracity of Romneys claims. By six points, hes the one Iowans say you cant really believe what (35% Obama, 41% Romney).

Obama 39% Other Lean Obama 8% Romney 39% Lean Romney 5% he says

Undecided

While its stating the obvious that the President leads with voters under 50 (50% to 43%), whats telling is that the race is close with every older age group: 50-59 (+4 Romney), 60-69 (+4 Obama), 70+ (+1 Romney).
Who does it better describe Democrat Barack Obama or Republican Mitt Romney? [Names rotated] Obama Romney 39 41 41

Will work to re-build the middle class economy Has a concrete plan to move our country forward You cant really believe what he says

45 43 35

Demographic comparisons between this Grove Insight poll, the voterfile and other recent public surveys conducted in Iowa
Grove Insight Poll November 1-2 The actual voter file Gravis Marketing November 1 Call Fire October 29-31

Voters under age 30 Voters age 30-49 Voters over age 50 Women Men Self IDd Republican Self IDd independent Self IDd Democrat Registered Republicans Registered Independents Registered Democrats

17 32 51 53 47 30 33 35 33 35 32

19 32 48 53 47 NA NA NA 31 36 33

17 31 52 53 47 35 24 41 NA NA NA

61 (Under 60) 39 (Over 60) 51 49 31 35 33 NA NA NA

www.projectnewamerica.com @PNAmerica

www.usaction.org @USAction