TO: Interested Parties

FROM: Project New America and USAction

DATE: November 3, 2012

RE: New Statewide Poll in Wisconsin Shows President Obama up by Six Points

A statewide telephone survey of 500 likely voters in Wisconsin was conducted by Grove Insight November 1
st
± 2
nd
using
professional interviewers. Quotas were set to ensure calling into cell phone only households. The margin of error is plus or
minus 4.4 percentage points at the 95% level of confidence.

Obama has a lead - and he may have room to grow
x Barack Obama is currently ahead of Mitt Romney by
six percentage points (48% to 42%).
x The President has better numbers than Romney for
working "to re-build the middle class economy¨ (+10
Obama) and for having a concrete plan to move our
country forward (+8). Because both of these metrics
impact vote choice and run ahead Obama's support,
this may indicate that he has not yet hit his ceiling.
x The gender gap here is quite pronounced, with
Obama up 20 points among women (56% to 36%).
He trails by less than half that among men (40% to
48%).
x By nine points, Wisconsin voters say it's Romney÷not Obama÷who
"you can't really believe what he says¨ (34% Obama, 43% Romney). In a state that is fatigued by politics,
this is telling.
x The president leads in every single media market across Wisconsin except the out-of-state markets, where
he trails by four points (44% Romney, 40% Obama).
x As we would expect to see, Obama leads among those under 50 (52% to 38%). The race is tied among
voters over 50 ÷ with each of the candidates garnering 46% of the vote. This division among older voters is
reflective of a similar division among Wisconsin independents÷39% of whom are voting for Romney, 38%
of whom chose Obama, and 17% of whom are undecided.







Who does it better describe ± Democrat Barack Obama or Republican Mitt Romney?
[Names rotated]
Obama Romney
Will work to re-build the middle class economy 47 37
Has a concrete plan to move our country forward 46 38
You can't really believe what he says 34 43
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2%
8%
Presidential Vote ± Wisconsin
+6
48%
42%
Romney 37%
Lean Romney 5%
Obama 44%
Lean Obama 4%
Undecided Other


Demographic comparisons between this Grove Insight poll, the voterfile and other recent public
surveys conducted in Wisconsin

Grove Insight Poll
November 1-2
The actual
voter file
MSNBC
October 31
PPP October
29-30
The Wisconsin
Survey (WPR)
October 25-29
Voters under age 30 12 NA
12
9
45 (Ages 18-
44)
Voters age 30-59 54 NA 55
71 (Ages
30-65)
Voters over age 60 31 NA 33
20 (Over
65)
55 (Ages 45+)





Women 52 52
52
53 49
Men 48 48
48
47 51





Self ID'd RepubIican 32 NA
29
30 32
SeIf ID'd independent 31 NA
35
36 22
SeIf ID'd Democrat 36 NA
34
34 42





www.projectnewamerica.com www.usaction.org
@PNAmerica @USAction


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