Western New England University Polling Institute Massachusetts Statewide Telephone Survery Conducted in Partnership with Masslive.

com and The Republican Newspaper (October 26 – November 1, 2012)
METHODOLOGY The Western New England University Polling Institute survey consists of telephone interviews with 685 adults ages 18 and older drawn from across Massachusetts using random-digit-dialing Sept. 28 – Oct. 4, 2012. The sample yielded 644 adults who said they are registered to vote in Massachusetts, and 535 adults who are classified as likely to vote in the Nov. 6, 2012 general election. Unless otherwise noted, the figures in this release are based on the statewide sample of likely voters. The Polling Institute classified likely voters based on voters’ responses to questions about interest in the election, likelihood of voting in the election, ability to identify their polling place, and whether they reported voting in the 2008 presidential election. The Polling Institute dialed household telephone numbers, known as “landline numbers,” and cell phone numbers for the survey. In order to draw a representative sample from the landline numbers, interviewers first asked for the youngest male age 18 or older who was home at the time of the call, and if no adult male was present, the youngest female age 18 or older who was at home at the time of the call. Interviewers dialing cell phone numbers interviewed the respondent who answered the cell phone after confirming three things: (1) that the respondent was in a safe setting to complete the survey; (2) that the respondent was an adult age 18 or older; and (3) that the respondent was a resident of Massachusetts. The landline and cell phone data were combined and weighted to reflect the adult population of Massachusetts by gender, race, age, and county of residence using U.S. Census estimates for Massachusetts. The full text of the questionnaire for this survey is available at www1.wne.edu/pollinginst. All surveys are subject to sampling error, which is the expected probable difference between interviewing everyone in a population versus a scientific sampling drawn from that population. The sampling error for a sample of 535 likely voters is +/- 4.2 percent at a 95 percent confidence interval. Thus if 55 percent of likely voters said they approved of the job that Barack Obama is doing as president, one would be 95 percent sure that the true figure would be between 50.8 percent and 59.2 percent (55 percent +/- 4.2 percent) had all Massachusetts likely voters been interviewed, rather than just a sample. The margin of sampling error for the sample of 644 registered voters is +/- 3.9 percent at a 95 percent confidence interval. Sampling error increases as the sample size decreases, so statements based on various population subgroups are subject to more error than are statements based on the total sample. Sampling error does not take into account other sources of variation inherent in public opinion studies, such as non-response, question wording, or context effects.

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Western New England University Polling Institute
TABLES Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president? Job Approval – Barack Obama Approve Oct. 26 – Nov. 1, 2012 Party ID** Likely voters Democrat Republican Independent Gender Age Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65 and older Education High school or less Some college College graduate Western MA Central MA North / South Shore Boston and suburbs Oct. 26 – Nov. 1, 2012 Sept. 28 – Oct. 4, 2012 Sept. 6-13, 2012 Adults Registered voters Adults Registered voters Likely voters Adults Registered voters Likely voters 58% 94% 7% 40% 48% 67% 79% 49% 55% 58% 54% 43% 62% 75% 45% 47% 62% 59% 58% 61% 60% 60% 60% 60% 57% Disapprove 38% 4% 90% 53% 47% 29% 20% 45% 41% 38% 40% 51% 34% 21% 52% 47% 33% 35% 36% 33% 35% 37% 30% 32% 36% Don’t know/ Refused 4% 2% 3% 7% 5% 4% 2% 7% 4% 4% 6% 6% 4% 4% 4% 6% 4% 6% 6% 6% 5% 3% 9% 8% 7% N* 535 203 70 240 265 270 39 124 196 156 87 105 340 99 69 142 223 685 644 567 516 440 588 545 444

Region

* Subsamples are unweighted N’s, and consist of likely voters. Row percentages may not sum to 100 percent due to rounding. ** Party identification was measured with the following question: “In politics today, do you consider yourself a Democrat, Republican, Independent or something else?”

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Next, please tell me if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the following people. If you haven't heard of them or don't have an opinion of them, just tell me and we'll move on. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of (name). (Names of the presidential candidates were rotated in random order in the survey.)

Favorable – Unfavorable Ratings for Barack Obama Favorable Oct. 26 – Nov. 1, 2012 Party Identification Likely voters Democrat Republican Independent Gender Oct. 26 – Nov. 1, 2012 Sept. 28 – Oct. 4, 2012 Sept. 6-13, 2012 Sept. 6-13, 2012 May 29 – 31, 2012 Feb. 23 – March 1, 2012 Male Female Registered voters Likely voters Registered voters Likely voters Registered voters Registered voters Registered voters 61% 96% 10% 45% 52% 70% 60% 62% 62% 60% 64% 57% 61% Unfavorable 34% 2% 87% 47% 42% 27% 34% 33% 32% 34% 29% 33% 34% Haven’t heard of 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% No opinion 4% 2% 2% 7% 5% 3% 5% 4% 6% 6% 6% 8% 3% Refused 1% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 1% N* 535 203 70 240 265 270 644 440 516 444 545 504 527

* Subsamples are unweighted N’s, and consist of likely voters. Row percentages may not sum to 100 percent due to rounding.

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Favorable – Unfavorable Ratings for Mitt Romney Favorable Oct. 26 – Nov. 1, 2012 Party Identification Likely voters Democrat Republican Gender Oct. 26 – Nov. 1, 2012 Sept. 28 – Oct. 4, 2012 Sept. 6-13, 2012 Sept. 6-13, 2012 May 29 – 31, 2012 Feb. 23 – March 1, 2012 Independent Male Female Registered voters Likely voters Registered voters Likely voters Registered voters Registered voters Registered voters 40% 7% 95% 55% 47% 34% 39% 35% 33% 34% 31% 36% 41% Unfavorable 54% 89% 2% 37% 44% 63% 56% 58% 58% 56% 60% 50% 46% Haven’t heard of 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% No opinion 5% 4% 1% 7% 8% 3% 4% 7% 8% 9% 8% 12% 11% Refused 1% 0% 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 1% 0% 2% 2% N* 535 203 70 240 265 270 644 440 516 444 545 504 527

* Subsamples are unweighted N’s, and consist of likely voters. Row percentages may not sum to 100 percent due to rounding.

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As you may know, Massachusetts voters will vote for president and a United States Senator in November. How much interest do you have in this election – a lot, some, a little, or none at all?

Interest in the Upcoming Election Don’t know / Refused 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

A lot Oct. 26 – Nov. 1, 2012 Party Identification Likely voters Democrat Republican Independent Oct. 26 – Nov. 1, 2012 Sept. 28 – Oct. 4, 2012 Sept. 6-13, 2012 Sept. 6-13, 2012 Registered voters Likely voters Registered voters Likely voters Registered voters 92% 95% 91% 89% 82% 84% 80% 88% 76%

Some 6% 4% 7% 8% 10% 14% 16% 11% 18%

A little 1% 1% 1% 0% 3% 2% 3% 1% 4%

None at all 1% 0% 0% 2% 4% 0% 0% 0% 2%

N* 535 203 70 240 644 440 516 444 545

* Subsamples are unweighted N’s, and consist of likely voters. Row percentages may not sum to 100 percent due to rounding.

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If the election for president were held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama, the Democrat, and Mitt Romney, the Republican, would you vote for Barack Obama, Mitt Romney, or some other candidate for president? (If no preference is stated): At this moment do you lean more toward Barack Obama, the Democrat, or Mitt Romney, the Republican? (Names were rotated in random order in the initial and follow-up questions. Initial preferences and preferences of leaning voters in the follow-up question were combined in the table below.) Voter Preferences for the Presidency – Likely and Registered Voters Obama Oct. 26 – Nov. 1, 2012 Party Identification Likely voters Democrat Republican Independent Gender Age Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65 and older Education High school or less Some college College graduate Western MA Central MA North / South Shore Boston and suburbs Registered voters Likely voters Registered voters Likely voters Registered voters 58% 96% 5% 40% 47% 68% 77% 47% 56% 60% 52% 44% 62% 74% 44% 45% 64% 58% 63% 64% 60% 64% Romney 40% 4% 95% 57% 48% 32% 18% 49% 44% 40% 45% 54% 35% 21% 53% 50% 35% 38% 33% 32% 38% 32% Don’t know / Undecided 2% 0% 0% 4% 5% 0% 4% 4% 1% 1% 2% 2% 3% 3% 2% 5% 1% 4% 3% 3% 3% 4% Refused 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 0% 0% N* 535 203 70 240 265 270 39 124 196 156 87 105 340 99 69 142 223 644 440 516 444 545

Region

Oct. 26 – Nov. 1, 2012 Sept. 28 – Oct. 4, 2012 Sept. 6-13, 2012

* Subsamples are unweighted N’s, and consist of likely voters. Row percentages may not sum to 100 percent due to rounding.

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Initial Voter Preferences for the Presidency (Without Leaners) – Likely and Registered Voters Obama Oct. 26 – Nov. 1, 2012 Party Identification Gender Age Likely voters Democrat Republican Independent Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65 and older Education High school or less Some college College graduate Western MA Central MA North / South Shore Boston and suburbs Registered voters Likely voters Registered voters Likely voters Registered voters 56% 96% 5% 36% 45% 67% 73% 47% 54% 58% 52% 41% 61% 71% 43% 45% 62% 56% 60% 62% 56% 60% Romney 38% 3% 95% 54% 46% 31% 18% 46% 41% 38% 41% 51% 34% 20% 52% 48% 33% 36% 31% 30% 36% 29% Some other candidate 3% 0% 0% 5% 5% 1% 9% 1% 2% 1% 5% 4% 2% 5% 0% 4% 2% 5% 4% 4% 5% 6% Wouldn’t vote 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Don’t know / Undecided 3% 1% 0% 4% 5% 1% 0% 6% 2% 2% 3% 3% 3% 5% 4% 3% 2% 3% 3% 2% 4% 5% Refused 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 0% 0% N* 535 203 70 240 265 270 39 124 196 156 87 105 340 99 69 142 223 644 440 516 444 545

Region

Oct. 26 – Nov. 1, 2012 Sept. 28 – Oct. 4, 2012 Sept. 6 – 13, 2012

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