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Ipsos Poll Conducted for Reuters

Daily Election Tracking: 11.03.12
These are findings from an Ipsos poll conducted for Thomson Reuters from Oct. 30-Nov. 3, 2012. For the survey, a sample of 5,990 American registered voters and 4,920 Likely Voters (all age 18 and over) was interviewed online. On October 29th, Ipsos began boosting sample in four swing states, which accounts for the increase in our overall sample size. The data collected in these states are included in our national sample, although weighted appropriately to reflect the population of each state relative to the national population. The precision of the Reuters/Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll has a credibility interval of plus or minus 3.0 percentage points for Registered Voters and 3.4 for Likely Voters. Likely voter model adjusted to include all respondents who have voted, as of 10.15.12. For more information about credibility intervals, please see the appendix. The data were weighted to the U.S. current population data by gender, age, education, and ethnicity. Statistical margins of error are not applicable to online polls. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error and measurement error. Figures marked by an asterisk (*) indicate a percentage value of greater than zero but less than one half of one per cent. Where figures do not sum to 100, this is due to the effects of rounding.

VOTING INTENTION
Q1. If the 2012 Presidential Election were being held today and the candidates were [ROTATE] Barack Obama for president and Joe Biden for vice president, the Democrats, and Mitt Romney for president and Paul Ryan for vice president, the Republicans [END ROTATE], for whom would you vote?
All LIKELY Voters (LV) Barack Obama for president and Joe Biden for vice president, the Democrats Mitt Romney for president and Paul Ryan for vice president, the Republicans Wouldn’t vote None / Other Don’t know / Refused
47% 46% *% 3% 4%

All Registered Voters (RV)
46% 44% 1% 3% 6%

Democrats Republicans Independents (RV) (RV) (RV)
89% 6% 1% 1% 4% 8% 86% 1% 2% 3% 32% 35% 5% 15% 14%

Obama & Romney Vote Share Daily Data: 2012 Conventions to present (Likely Voters only) Obama
50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5
10/14/12 10/17/12 10/20/12 10/23/12 10/26/12 10/29/12 10/2/12 10/5/12 10/11/12 11/1/12 8/27/12 8/30/12 9/11/12 9/14/12 9/17/12 9/20/12 9/23/12 9/26/12 9/29/12 10/8/12

Romney

Wouldn't vote/None/Other/DK/Ref

0

9/2/12

9/5/12

9/8/12

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or by mailing in an early voting or absentee ballot. or not? All Registered Voters (RV) Yes No 29% 71% Democrats (RV) 31% 69% Republicans (RV) 30% 70% Independents (RV) 24% 76% [IF “Yes” at Q3.Ipsos Poll Conducted for Reuters Daily Election Tracking OTHER VOTING QUESTIONS [ASK IF OBAMA OR ROMNEY SELECTED IN Q1] Q2. And do you plan to vote at an early voting location or by mailing in an early voting or absentee ballot? (n=3. ASK Q4] Q4.430) Definitely will vote for candidate Could change my mind All Registered Voters (RV) 90% 10% Obama Voters (RV) 92% 8% Romney Voters (RV) 89% 11% Q3. or is there a chance you might change your mind before you vote? (n=5. Other All Registered Voters (RV) 50% 45% 5% Democrats (RV) 91% 6% 3% Republicans (RV) 10% 89% 1% Independents (RV) 37% 42% 21% [IF “No” at Q3.043 for Democrats. Have you definitely decided to vote for [INSERT RESPONSE FROM Q1].708) Yes – I plan to vote at an early voting location Yes – I plan to mail in an early voting ballot Yes – I plan to mail in an absentee ballot No – I do not plan to vote early PARTY ID Strong Democrat Moderate Democrat Lean Democrat Lean Republican Moderate Republican Strong Republican Independent None of these DK All Registered Voters (RV) 12% 5% 2% 81% Democrats (RV) 13% 7% 3% 77% Republicans (RV) 10% 3% 2% 85% Independents (RV) 18% 2% 2% 78% All Registered Voters (RV) 14% 20% 10% 8% 20% 13% 11% 1% 2% 2 . Have you already voted in the upcoming November general election by going to an early voting location. 1. 975 for Republicans. Mitt Romney for President and Paul Ryan for Vice President.282 for All RVs. 220 for Independents) Barack Obama for President and Joe Biden for Vice President. For whom did you vote for President? (n=2. ASK Q5] Q5.

Mitt Romney for President and Paul Ryan for Vice President. jobs Healthcare generally Deficit/budget Social issues like abortion and same-sex marriage Taxes Social Security Medicare/Medicaid Education The environment Energy. I not contacted 9% 7% 16% 68% Democrats (RV) 17% 3% 14% 66% Republicans (RV) 3% 12% 17% 67% Independents (RV) 4% 3% 19% 74% Q9. What is the most important issue in determining your vote? All Registered Voters (RV) Economy in general Unemployment. who would you pick to win the presidential race in your state? All Registered Voters (RV) Barack Obama for President and Joe Biden for Vice President. for both Obama and Romney No. Regardless of how you will vote. Other Don’t know 50% 33% 1% 17% Democrats (RV) 80% 7% % 12% Republicans (RV) 22% 63% % 15% Independents (RV) 43% 23% 5% 30% Q7. law & order Other (specify) 40% 13% 10% 7% 7% 3% 4% 3% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% % 6% Democrats (RV) 31% 12% 13% 3% 9% 5% 6% 4% 5% 2% 1% 1% 2% 1% 7% Republicans (RV) 50% 12% 7% 12% 6% 2% 2% 1% % % 1% 1% 1% % 5% Independents (RV) 37% 17% 8% 8% 5% 3% 5% 5% 2% 1% 1% % 2% % 6% 3 .Ipsos Poll Conducted for Reuters Daily Election Tracking GENERAL QUESTIONS Q6. Regardless of how you will vote. for Mitt Romney Yes. if you were to wager money. who would you pick to win the presidential race? All Registered Voters (RV) Barack Obama for President and Joe Biden for Vice President. Mitt Romney for President and Paul Ryan for Vice President. gas prices Immigration International issues/conflicts abroad Crime. if you were to wager money. Has anyone called you or talked to you in person on behalf of either major presidential campaign about coming out to vote? All Registered Voters (RV) Yes. for Barack Obama Yes. Other Don’t know 45% 42% 1% 13% Democrats (RV) 68% 22% % 9% Republicans (RV) 25% 65% 1% 10% Independents (RV) 36% 37% 3% 24% Q8.

and aggregated poll data. IPSOS ELECTORAL COLLEGE PROJECTION # of # of Electoral states College Votes Likely Obama 13 177 Lean Obama (Toss-up) 6 61 Toss-up (Too close to call) Lean Romney (Toss-up) Likely Romney 9 6 17 110 60 130 4 . data from other pollsters. previous election outcome data. In our projection. which are the ‘Likely Romney’ states. the two candidates are within 3 points of each other (on average). Some states are close but tend to ‘lean’ towards one candidate or the other. the projected winner has a lead of between 3 and 6 in the polls (on average). In these states. In these states. the projected winner has a lead of 7 or more in the polls (on average). which represent 177 Electoral College votes. these are the ‘Lean Obama’ (61 EC votes) or ‘Lean Romney’ (60 EC votes) states. These are the ‘Likely Obama’ states. The remaining 9 states (representing 110 Electoral College votes) are too close to call.Ipsos Poll Conducted for Reuters Electoral College Projection Ipsos’ Electoral College model includes our own data. In these states. Romney has a solid lead over Obama in 17 states (130 EC votes). The most recent projection shows that Obama has a solid lead over Romney in 13 states.

(1992).θ). the posterior distribution is also a beta distribution (π(θ/y)~β(y+a.000 750 500 350 200 100 Credibility intervals 2. John B. Sample size 2. Donald B.9 11. The posterior distribution represents our opinion about which are the plausible values for θ adjusted after observing the sample data. Statistics.5 4. we will compute the largest possible credibility interval for any observed sample.9 3. Stern. the posterior distribution is one’s knowledge base updated using the latest survey information. Y counts the number of “yes”. Weighting for unequal Pi . so that the sample mean (y ̅) is a natural estimate of the true population proportion θ.1 5. Rubin. 1 Bayesian 5 . This model is often called the likelihood function.0 6. Since we want only one measure of precision for all variables in the survey. 183200.n-y+b)). Our credibility interval for θ is based on this posterior distribution. Ipsos does not publish data for base sizes (sample sizes) below 100. In this setting. and it is a standard concept in both the Bayesian and the Classical framework. There are different ways to calculate these intervals based on . 2. The worst case occurs when we assume that a=1 and b=1 and . approximately: For this poll.e. L. In reality.Ipsos Poll Conducted for Reuters Daily Election Tracking How to Calculate Bayesian Credibility Intervals The calculation of credibility intervals assumes that Y has a binomial distribution conditioned on the parameter θ\. Y|θ~Bin(n. the Bayesian Credibility Interval was adjusted using standard weighting design effect 1+L=1. For the prior and likelihood functions specified here. Carlin. Journal of Official.5 2. where n is the size of our sample. Using a simple approximation of the posterior by the normal distribution. 8. the 95% credibility interval is given by. but with updated hyper-parameters. Andrew Gelman.0 7. observed in the sample. Chapman & Hall/CRC | ISBN: 158488388X | 2003 2 Kish.500 1. analogous to what is done within the Classical framework. Hal S. As mentioned above. The Bayesian 1 statistics combines both the prior distribution and the likelihood function to create a posterior distribution..3 to account for complex weighting2 Examples of credibility intervals for different base sizes are below.000 1. i. or “1”.2 Data Analysis. these intervals represent our belief about which are the most plausible values for θ given our updated knowledge base. Second Edition.