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SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 4, 2012

Obama 50%-Romney 47%

Obama Gains Edge in Campaigns Final Days

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Andrew Kohut President, Pew Research Center Carroll Doherty and Michael Dimock Associate Directors Scott Keeter Director of Survey Research 1615 L St, N.W., Suite 700 Washington, D.C. 20036 Tel (202) 419-4350 Fax (202) 419-4399 www.peoplepress.org

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Obama 50%-Romney 47%

Obama Gains Edge in Campaigns Final Days


Barack Obama has edged ahead of Mitt Romney in the final days of the presidential campaign. In the Pew Research Centers election weekend survey, Obama holds a 48% to 45% lead over Romney among likely voters. The survey finds that Obama maintains his modest lead when the probable decisions of undecided voters are taken into account. Our final estimate of the national popular vote is Obama 50% and Romney 47%, when the undecided vote is allocated between the two candidates based on several indicators and opinions. Obama Slightly Ahead, But Race Is Still Close
Sept 12-16 % 51 43 1 5 100 N Registered voters Obama Romney Other DK/Refused N 51 42 2 6 100 2,424 46 46 3 5 100 1,201 47 45 4 4 100 1,678 49 42 4 5 100 3,151 2,192 Oct 4-7 % 45 49 2 4 100 1,112 Oct 24-28 % 47 47 3 3 100 1,495 Oct 31Nov 3 % 48 45 4 4 100 2,709 Estimate w/ undecideds allocated % 50 47 3 -100

Likely voters* Obama Romney Other DK/Refused

PEW RESEARCH CENTER Oct. 31-Nov. 3, 2012. Figures may not add to 100% because of rounding. * Based on nine-question turnout scale and assumes 58% of the voting population will cast a vote.

A week ago the race was deadlocked, with each candidate drawing support from 47% of the likely electorate. Interviewing for the final pre-election survey was conducted Oct. 31Nov. 3 among 2,709 likely voters. The previous survey was conducted Oct. 24-28, before Hurricane Sandy made landfall along the East Coast.

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Obamas handling of the storms aftermath may have contributed to his improved showing. Fully 69% of all likely voters approve of the way Obama is handling the storms impact. Even a plurality of Romney supporters (46%) approve of Obamas handling of the situation; more important, so too do 63% of swing voters. Voter turnout, which may be lower than in 2008 and 2004, remains one of Romneys strengths. Romneys supporters continue to be more engaged in the election and interested in election news than Obama supporters, and are more committed to voting. The survey also indicates that voters in the nine battleground states are as closely divided as the national electorate: 49% of likely voters in battleground states support Obama while 47% back Romney. There are many good signs in the poll for Obama. He has regained much of the ground he lost following his lackluster performance in the first presidential debate. In mid-September, Obama led Romney by eight points among likely voters, but in early October, shortly after the debate, he trailed by four points.

Romney Supporters More Engaged, Certain to Vote


Given a lot of thought to the election All voters Romney supporters Obama supporters Following campaign news very closely All voters Romney supporters Obama supporters Definitely plan to vote All voters Romney supporters Obama supporters 84 86 84 R+2 85 90 83 R+7 84 88 83 R+5 88 92 86 R+6 44 44 46 O+2 47 53 44 R+9 61 66 60 R+6 55 61 54 R+7 Sept 12-16 % 70 73 69 R+4 Oct 4-7 % 73 82 67 R+15 Oct Oct 3124-28 Nov 3 % 78 82 78 R+4 % 81 87 79 R+8

PEW RESEARCH CENTER Oct. 31-Nov. 3, 2012. THOUGHT, CAMPNII & SCALE10. Based on registered voters.

Battleground States Divided


All likely voters Vote preference Obama Romney Other/Dont know % 48 45 7 100 N 2709 Blue States % 54 36 9 100 1228 Red States % 38 54 7 100 888 Battleground States % 49 47 5 100 708

PEW RESEARCH CENTER Oct. 31-Nov.3, 2012. Based on likely voters. Battleground states: CO, FL, IA, NC, NV, NH, OH, VA, WI. Figures may not add to 100% because of rounding.

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Nearly four-in-ten (39%) likely voters support Obama strongly, while 9% back him only moderately. A third of likely voters support Romney strongly, compared with 11% who back him moderately. In past elections, dating to 1960, the candidate with the higher percentage of strong support has usually gone on to win the popular vote. Similarly, a much greater percentage of Obama supporters than Romney supporters are voting for him rather than against his opponent (80% for Obama vs. 60% for Romney), another historical indicator of likely victory. And far more registered voters expect an Obama victory than a Romney victory on Nov. 6 (52% vs. 30%).

Most Expect Obama Victory


Who is most likely to win the election? Mar June Sept All Voters Obama Romney Other/ Dont know Among Obama Supporters Obama Romney Other/ Dont know Among Romney Supporters Obama Romney Other/ Dont know 26 64 10 100 21 63 16 100 22 53 26 100 17 64 19 100 16 66 18 100 86 8 6 100 81 8 11 100 82 3 15 100 82 3 15 100 83 2 14 100 % 59 32 9 100 % 52 34 15 100 % 53 24 23 100 Oct % 49 31 19 100 Nov % 52 30 18 100

Based on registered voters. Obamas increases in likely voter support are Figures may not add to 100% because of rounding. most notable among women, older voters, and political moderates. Women now favor Obama by a 13-point margin (53% to 40%), up from six points a week ago and reflecting a shift toward Obama since early October. Right after the first presidential debate, the womens vote was split evenly (47% each). Men, by comparison, favor Romney by a 50% to 42% margin, with little change in the past month.

PEW RESEARCH CENTER Oct. 31-Nov. 3, 2012. Q15.

Romney continues to lead among voters age 65 and older, by a nine point margin (51% to 42%) in the current survey. But that is only about half of the 19-point lead he held among seniors just a week ago. Political moderates now favor Obama by 21 points (56%-35%).

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Another notable gain for Obama, perhaps reflecting Hurricane Sandys effect on the race, comes in a region he was already secure in: the Northeast. He has increased his lead over Romney from nine points (52%-43%) to 21 points (56%-35%) there over just the past week. While the storms impact on many parts of the Northeast has been substantial, an analysis of the polling data shows no substantial underrepresentation of voters in the most heavily affected counties. Early voting makes up a large share of votes cast, but there is no sign that they are breaking decisively toward either candidate. Among the 34% of likely voters say they have already cast their ballot, 48% say they supported Obama, 46% Romney. That is roughly the same margin as among likely voters who plan to vote on Election Day (47% Obama, 45% Romney).

Strength of Candidate Support: 1960-2012


Strong % 2012 Romney Obama 2008 McCain Obama 2004 Bush Kerry 2000 Bush Gore 1996 Dole Clinton 1988 Bush Dukakis 1984 Reagan Mondale 1980 Reagan Carter 1976 Ford Carter 1972 Nixon McGovern 1968 Nixon Humphrey 1964 Goldwater Johnson 1960 Nixon Kennedy 33 39 24 36 39 32 32 26 20 29 27 22 39 25 25 20 26 26 41 19 25 22 15 42 35 33 Not strong % 11 9 18 13 9 13 14 17 18 23 26 19 18 14 22 24 23 22 20 16 17 18 14 22 13 16 Total % 45 48 42 49 48 45 46 43 38 52 53 41 57 39 47 44 49 48 61 35 42 40 29 64 48 49

PEW RESEARCH CENTER Oct. 31-Nov. 3, 2012. Based on likely voters. All measures from pre-election or late October surveys. Gallup Poll findings 1960-1988.

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About the Survey


The analysis in this report is based on telephone interviews conducted October 31-November 3, 2012, among a national sample of 3,815 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia (2,262 respondents were interviewed on a landline telephone, and 1,553 were interviewed on a cell phone, including 784 who had no landline telephone). Data collection was managed by Princeton Survey Research Associates International and conducted by interviewers at Princeton Data Source and Abt SRBI. A combination of landline and cell phone random digit dial samples were used; both samples were provided by Survey Sampling International. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish. Respondents in the landline sample were selected by randomly asking for the youngest adult male or female who is now at home. Interviews in the cell sample were conducted with the person who answered the phone, if that person was an adult 18 years of age or older. For detailed information about our survey methodology, see http://people-press.org/methodology/ The combined landline and cell phone sample are weighted using an iterative technique that matches gender, age, education, race, Hispanic origin and nativity and region to parameters from the March 2011 Census Bureau's Current Population Survey and population density to parameters from the 2010 Census. The sample also is weighted to match current patterns of telephone status and relative usage of landline and cell phones (for those with both), based on extrapolations from the 2011 National Health Interview Survey. The weighting procedure also accounts for the fact that respondents with both landline and cell phones have a greater probability of being included in the combined sample and adjusts for household size among respondents with a landline phone. Sampling errors and statistical tests of significance take into account the effect of weighting. The following table shows the unweighted sample sizes and the error attributable to sampling that would be expected at the 95% level of confidence for different groups in the survey:
Group Total Registered voters Likely voters Among registered voters Obama supporters Romney supporters 1,552 1,343 2.9 percentage points 3.1 percentage points Unweighted sample size 3,815 3,151 2,709 Plus or minus 1.8 percentage points 2.0 percentage points 2.2 percentage points

Sample sizes and sampling errors for other subgroups are available upon request. In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.

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Likely Voter Scale


Likely voter estimates are based on a 9-item turnout scale that includes the following questions: thought, campnii, precinct, oftvote, where, plan1/plan3, folgov, pvote08a and scale10. The turnout estimate used in identifying likely voters is 58%. More details about the Pew Research Centers methodology for estimating likelihood to vote are available at http://www.peoplepress.org/files/2011/01/UnderstandingLikelyVoters.pdf.

Battleground States
Battleground states were identified using ratings for each state from: The Cook Political Report, MSNBC, The New York Times, Real Clear Politics, Karl Rove, CNN, Pollster.com, and the Washington Post. The ratings by these different groups yield 9 battleground states (rated as tossup or lean Republican or Democrat) and 42 safe states, including Washington, D.C. Battleground states are: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin. Solid or likely Republican states are: Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia and Wyoming. Solid or likely Democratic states are: California, Connecticut, Delaware, Washington D.C., Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont and Washington.

Hurricane Sandy
The poll was conducted in the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy, which affected a large area of the Northeastern coastal region of the United States. To assess the potential impact of the storm damage on the representativeness of the polls results, respondents living in counties judged to be highly affected were grouped into one stratum. The assignment of counties was based on a combination of ratings of storm impact from Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and reports of the percentage of households without power in each county. Pew Research polling over the course of 2012 prior to the storm found that an average of 5.7% of interviews (on an unweighted basis) were obtained from counties affected by the storm. In the current poll, 5.8% of respondents interviewed live in the affected counties.

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Sample Composition
The following table shows the profile of all adults interviewed, compared with population parameters from government surveys, as well as the profile of registered and likely voters interviewed.
Oct 31-Nov 3, 2012 Political Weighted Group Gender Men Women Age 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ Education College grad + Some college High school or less Race/Ethnicity White non-Hispanic Black non-Hispanic Hispanic Other non-Hispanic Region Northeast Midwest South West Phone use Landline only Dual landline and cell Cell phone only Unweighted N 7 58 35 -7 58 33 3,815 6 64 27 3,151 6 68 25 2,709 18 22 37 23 19 23 37 22 19 24 37 21 18 24 37 21 68 12 14 7 67 11 13 6 72 12 8 5 74 12 7 5 28 28 44 29 29 41 34 30 35 37 30 32 13 18 17 19 16 17 13 17 16 19 16 17 9 15 16 20 17 19 7 15 15 21 19 20 Population Parameter % 49 51 General Public % 48 52 Registered Voters % 47 53 Likely Voters % 46 54

Population parameters for all adults from the March 2011 Current Population Survey except phoneuse, which is based on projections from the 2011 National Health Interview Survey. All figures are based on weighted data. Dont know responses for the current survey are not shown. Whites, blacks and other race are non-Hispanic; Hispanics are of any race.

Pew Research Center, 2012

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PRESIDENTIAL TRIAL HEAT


Pew Research Center for the People and the Press, Oct 31-Nov 3, 2012

Q.5 If the presidential election were being held today, would you vote for the Republican ticket of Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan, the Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden, the Libertarian Party ticket headed by Gary Johnson or the Green Party ticket headed by Jill Stein?/Q.5a As of today, who do you lean more to? -----------------BASED ON LIKELY VOTERS----------------Oct 31-Nov 2, 2012 Current Oct 4-7, 2012 Oct 24-28, 2012 Other/ Unwgted Obama Romney Obama Romney Obama Romney DK/Ref N % % % % % % % 45 49 47 47 48 45 7 2709 43 47 46 45 -42 51 37 43 44 49 46 --------37 92 -48 41 47 41 44 60 7 94 42 22 56 85 6 -92 97 51 47 49 48 -54 42 58 51 50 47 47 --------58 3 -47 54 46 55 51 35 91 5 46 74 36 9 92 -6 1 44 50 52 43 56 50 46 38 48 40 55 46 36 56 42 59 44 43 49 50 37 93 -49 43 47 45 47 55 6 94 40 23 52 89 4 12 91 97 51 44 41 52 35 44 49 57 44 57 39 48 59 38 52 34 51 51 45 44 57 2 -45 51 48 52 47 38 92 5 48 74 39 6 95 85 8 2 42 53 51 46 59 47 49 42 43 41 58 50 34 56 45 64 34 45 54 54 39 93 66 50 46 48 44 47 61 5 95 41 22 56 89 3 14 93 98 50 40 42 48 31 46 46 51 48 53 35 43 58 36 48 30 58 47 40 40 54 4 27 43 46 45 52 46 31 93 4 44 73 35 4 96 82 6 1 8 7 8 6 10 7 6 7 8 6 7 6 8 8 7 6 8 8 6 7 7 4 7 7 8 7 4 7 8 2 1 15 5 8 7 2 4 2 1 1171 1538 867 1770 223 644 883 887 420 738 447 1032 764 404 810 713 301 868 318 1211 2107 289 147 1267 791 631 902 861 554 843 1007 761 1125 889 590 650 184 525 443

ALL LIKELY VOTERS GENDER Men Women AGE 18-49 50+ DETAILED AGE 18-29 30-49 50-64 65+ GENDER BY AGE Men 18-49 Men 50+ Women 18-49 Women 50+ MARITAL STATUS BY GENDER Married men Unmarried men Married women Unmarried women PARENT (CHILD < 18) BY GENDER Male parent Male, not a parent Female parent Female, not a parent RACE White, non-Hispanic Black, non-Hispanic Hispanics EDUCATION College grad+ Some college High school or less FAMILY INCOME $75,000+ $30,000-$74,999 Less than $30,000 PARTY ID Republican Democrat Independent IDEOLOGY Conservative Moderate Liberal PARTY AND IDEOLOGY Conservative Republican Mod/Lib Republican Mod/Cons Democrat Liberal Democrat

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PRESIDENTIAL TRIAL HEAT


Pew Research Center for the People and the Press, Oct 24-28, 2012

Q.5 If the presidential election were being held today, would you vote for the Republican ticket of Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan, the Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden, the Libertarian Party ticket headed by Gary Johnson or the Green Party ticket headed by Jill Stein?/Q.5a As of today, who do you lean more to? -----------------BASED ON LIKELY VOTERS----------------Oct 31-Nov 2, 2012 Current Oct 4-7, 2012 Oct 24-28, 2012 Other/ Unwgted Obama Romney Obama Romney Obama Romney DK/Ref N % % % % % % % RELIGIOUS PREFERENCE Total Protestants White NH evang. Prot. White NH mainline Prot. Black NH Prot. Total Catholic White NH Cath. Unaffiliated ATTEND RELIGIOUS SERVICES Weekly or more Less than weekly LABOR UNION Labor household Non-labor household REGION Northeast Midwest South West 37 20 34 44 38 64 33 55 --53 44 40 51 58 76 60 50 56 26 62 39 --41 50 53 46 39 16 36 -47 39 67 38 53 59 45 52 51 42 46 56 78 60 -49 57 21 57 41 37 49 43 45 51 46 42 16 41 93 47 41 66 40 54 57 47 56 48 43 50 52 78 52 3 49 55 24 52 40 37 46 35 44 51 42 6 6 8 3 4 4 10 7 7 6 7 8 7 7 8 1445 565 532 234 607 487 413 1164 1493 310 2372 475 626 1011 597

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PRESIDENTIAL TRIAL HEAT AMONG WHITES


Pew Research Center for the People and the Press, Oct 31-Nov 3, 2012

Q.5 If the presidential election were being held today, would you vote for the Republican ticket of Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan, the Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden, the Libertarian Party ticket headed by Gary Johnson or the Green Party ticket headed by Jill Stein?/Q.5a As of today, who do you lean more to? -----------------BASED ON LIKELY VOTERS----------------Oct 31-Nov 2, 2012 Current Oct 4-7, 2012 Oct 24-28, 2012 Other/ Unwgted Obama Romney Obama Romney Obama Romney DK/Ref N % % % % % % % 37 58 37 57 39 54 7 2107 36 38 34 40 -31 45 33 32 39 35 41 43 33 36 51 36 31 35 38 45 5 91 39 12 49 86 47 37 27 45 59 57 63 54 -66 47 62 64 55 63 53 53 61 61 46 58 63 61 58 49 93 7 52 85 43 10 46 58 68 52 35 39 39 36 -39 38 34 38 32 40 39 44 32 40 47 31 34 39 36 41 6 91 35 12 43 91 42 45 27 40 60 54 54 59 -55 57 63 55 64 52 56 51 61 56 47 63 60 58 56 53 92 7 53 85 47 6 52 52 67 52 36 42 39 40 46 36 41 37 37 35 41 43 45 35 40 49 33 38 39 39 45 4 92 37 10 50 89 51 42 27 45 57 51 53 54 44 57 53 56 55 59 51 51 48 57 53 44 59 55 58 52 46 94 6 49 85 41 6 41 51 66 48 7 7 8 6 10 7 6 7 8 6 8 6 7 8 7 7 8 7 3 8 9 2 2 15 6 9 6 8 7 7 7 936 1170 589 1468 134 455 697 772 309 621 280 847 1034 1062 498 536 433 629 733 694 366 759 660 622 915 684 446 384 517 736 469

ALL WHITE NON-HISP LVS GENDER Men Women AGE 18-49 50+ DETAILED AGE 18-29 30-49 50-64 65+ GENDER BY AGE Men 18-49 Men 50+ Women 18-49 Women 50+ EDUCATION College grad+ Some college or less GENDER BY EDUCATION College grad+ men College grad+ women Some coll or less men Some coll or less women FAMILY INCOME $75,000+ $30,000-$74,999 Less than $30,000 PARTY ID Republican Democrat Independent IDEOLOGY Conservative Moderate Liberal REGION Northeast Midwest South West

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PROFILE OF REGISTERED AND LIKELY VOTERS


Nov 1996 RV Sex Male Female Race White Black Hispanic* Other/Mixed Age 18-29 30-49 50-64 65+ Education College grad+ Some college High school or less Family income More than $75,000 $50,000-$74,999 $30,000-$49,999 $20,000-$29,999 Less than $20,000 Party identification Republican Democrat Independent Party with leaners Republican/Lean Rep Democrat/Lean Dem Ideology Conservative Moderate Liberal Marital status Married Divorced/Separated/Widowed Living with a partner Never married Parental status Parent Non-parent 32 68 31 69 36 63 34 65 35 65 34 65 33 66 33 66 30 69 29 70 57 24 n/a 19 60 24 n/a 16 58 21 n/a 18 63 21 n/a 15 57 22 n/a 20 61 22 n/a 16 54 19 6 20 59 19 6 15 56 18 6 19 59 18 5 16 ------38 39 16 42 37 16 41 36 17 44 35 17 40 35 19 42 33 19 41 33 21 43 32 21 39 50 42 50 41 48 44 47 44 46 47 46 39 51 42 49 43 48 46 48 28 37 29 31 37 27 29 36 28 33 35 25 33 35 26 37 35 23 28 38 28 31 37 26 30 35 30 32 36 29 10 14 26 16 20 12 15 28 16 16 19 15 21 12 14 21 16 22 11 11 23 15 21 11 14 26 16 20 10 12 29 14 17 10 14 31 15 18 9 12 30 14 17 10 16 32 15 17 10 13 26 24 49 28 26 45 28 25 47 32 26 41 30 26 44 34 26 40 30 25 43 33 26 39 34 30 35 37 30 32 18 41 21 19 11 42 24 22 17 42 22 18 13 41 26 21 19 38 24 18 14 38 26 20 19 35 26 17 15 36 29 18 16 32 29 19 13 32 31 20 84 9 4 1 86 9 3 1 79 10 8 2 84 8 6 2 76 9 9 4 79 8 7 4 73 11 9 5 75 10 8 5 72 12 8 5 74 12 7 5 % 47 53 LV % 48 52 Nov 2000 RV % 47 53 LV % 49 51 Nov 2004 RV % 47 53 LV % 47 53 Nov 2008 RV % 48 52 LV % 48 52 Nov 2012 RV % 47 53 LV % 46 54

PEW RESEARCH CENTER 2012. Dont know responses not shown. * Spanish language interviewing for election weekend surveys began in 2012.

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PEW RESEARCH CENTER FOR THE PEOPLE & THE PRESS NOVEMBER 2012 ELECTION WEEKEND SURVEY FINAL TOPLINE October 31-November 3, 2012 N=3,815 ASK ALL: THOUGHT How much thought have you given to the coming presidential election...Quite a lot or only a little? BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS [N=3,151]: 2012 Election Oct 31-Nov 3, 2012 Oct 24-28, 2012 Oct 4-7, 2012 Sep 12-16, 2012 Jul 16-26, 2012 Jun 28-Jul 9, 2012 Jun 7-17, 2012 May 9-Jun 3, 2012 Apr 4-15, 2012 Mar 7-11, 2012 2008 Election November, 2008 Late October, 2008 Mid-October, 2008 Early October, 2008 Late September, 2008 Mid-September, 2008 August, 2008 July, 2008 June, 2008 Late May, 2008 April, 2008 March, 2008 Late February, 2008 2004 Election November, 2004 Mid-October, 2004 Early October, 2004 September, 2004 August, 2004 July, 2004 June, 2004 May, 2004 Late March, 2004 Mid-March, 2004 2000 Election November, 2000 Late October, 2000 Mid-October, 2000 Early October, 2000 September, 2000 July, 2000 June, 2000 May, 2000 April, 2000 Quite a lot 81 78 73 70 61 65 67 61 64 66 81 81 81 81 80 78 74 74 72 75 77 78 74 82 76 74 71 69 67 58 59 60 65 72 66 67 60 59 46 46 48 45 (VOL.) Only a (VOL.) (VOL.) Some little None DK/Ref 2 14 2 1 3 15 3 1 3 21 2 1 4 23 2 1 5 28 6 1 3 29 3 * 1 30 2 1 2 33 3 1 2 30 4 1 2 30 1 1 3 3 3 2 3 4 6 2 2 4 7 3 3 3 5 4 3 2 2 3 6 4 2 6 6 9 8 8 6 6 4 7 13 13 13 14 14 14 17 20 23 17 13 15 19 12 15 19 22 26 28 36 30 31 31 19 24 19 27 29 45 43 42 41 2 2 3 2 2 3 2 3 2 3 2 3 2 2 3 2 3 2 2 2 4 4 2 2 4 4 4 3 3 5 5 7 1 1 * 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 * 1 * 1 1 1 * * 1 *

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THOUGHT CONTINUED 1996 Election November, 1996 October, 1996 Late September, 1996 Early September, 1996 July, 1996 June, 1996 1992 Election Early October, 1992 September, 1992 August, 1992 June, 1992 1988 Election Gallup: November, 1988 Gallup: October, 1988 Gallup: September, 1988 Gallup: August, 1988 ASK ALL: CAMPNII Quite a lot 67 65 61 56 55 50 77 69 72 63 73 69 57 61 (VOL.) Only a (VOL.) (VOL.) Some little None DK/Ref 8 7 7 3 3 5 5 3 4 6 8 9 18 10 22 26 29 36 41 41 16 26 23 29 17 20 23 27 3 1 2 4 1 3 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 * 1 1 1 * 1 1 1 * 1 0 0 0 0

How closely have you been following news about candidates for the 2012 presidential election very closely, fairly closely, not too closely, or not at all closely?

BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS [N=3,151]: Very Fairly Not too closely closely closely 55 61 47 44 37 56 53 54 50 52 39 34 55 31 27 33 34 35 33 33 35 38 36 44 45 36 8 8 13 15 18 8 9 7 8 8 12 15 7 Not at all closely 5 3 5 7 9 3 4 4 4 4 5 6 2 (VOL.) DK/Ref 1 * 1 * * * 1 * * * * * 0

2012 Election Oct 31-Nov 3, 2012 Oct 24-28, 2012 Oct 4-7, 2012 Sep 12-16, 2012 Jun 7-17, 20121 2008 Election November, 2008 Late October, 2008 Mid-October, 2008 Mid-September, 2008 2004 Election November, 2004 2000 Election November, 2000 1996 Election November, 1996 1992 Election October, 1992

For June 7-17, 2012, question was asked as part of a list.

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ASK ALL: REG Which of these statements best describes you? Are you ABSOLUTELY CERTAIN that you are registered to vote at your current address, are you PROBABLY registered, but there is a chance your registration has lapsed, or are you NOT registered to vote at your current address? ASK IF NOT REGISTERED (REG=3,4,9): NREG Have you previously been registered to vote, or have you never been registered? ASK ALL REGISTERED VOTERS (REG=1) AND PROBABLY REGISTERED (REG=2): STATEREG Are you registered to vote in [INSERT STATE FROM SAMPLE], or in another state? IF REGISTERED IN ANOTHER STATE: And what state is that? ASK ALL NON-REGISTERED VOTERS (REG=3,4,9): STATENV Do you live in [INSERT STATE FROM SAMPLE], or in another state? IF LIVE IN ANOTHER STATE: And what state is that? IF STATENV IS DAY OF STATE AND REG=3, 4, 9 PLANREG Do you plan to register so that you can vote in the upcoming election? A PERSON IS COUNTED AS REGISTERED (REGFINAL=1) IF ANY OF THE FOLLOWING: 1) ANSWERED ABSOLUTELY CERTAIN TO REG (REG=1) 2) ANSWERED PROBABLY TO REG (REG=2) AND STATEREG IS DAY OF STATE 3) ANSWERED YES TO PLANREG (PLANREG=1) 4) STATEREG OR STATENV IS NORTH DAKOTA ALL OTHER RESPONDENTS ARE NOT REGISTERED (REGFINAL=2) REGFINAL Voter registration, based on total [N=3,815]:

Oct 31-Nov 3 2012 76 Total registered voters 24 Total not registered ASK ALL REGISTERED VOTERS (REGFINAL=1): PRECINCT Have you ever voted in your precinct or election district? BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS [N=3,151]: Oct 31-Nov 3 2012 83 Yes 17 No * Don't know/Refused (VOL.) ASK ALL REGISTERED VOTERS (REGFINAL=1): OFTVOTE How often would you say you vote... [READ] BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS [N=3,151]: Nearly always 23 24 20 22 24 29 24 24 24 27 26 31 23 Part of the time 7 8 6 7 6 8 8 8 11 10 9 11 7 (VOL.) Never vote 2 3 1 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 1 (VOL.) Other 1 1 1 1 * * 1 * 1 1 * 1 1 (VOL.) DK/Ref * * 0 * * * * * * * * 1 1

Oct 31-Nov 3, 2012 Oct 24-28, 2012 Oct 4-7, 2012 Sep 12-16, 2012 Jun 7-17, 2012 Apr 4-15, 2012 Jan 4-8, 2012 Feb 22-Mar 14, 2011 Oct 27-30, 2010 Oct 13-18, 2010 Aug 25-Sep 6, 2010 June 16-20, 2010 Mar 31-Apr 6, 2009

Always 62 59 67 64 64 57 60 62 58 57 59 52 62

Seldom 5 5 4 4 4 4 6 4 5 4 4 5 5

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OFTVOTE CONTINUED Always 60 57 57 53 55 54 55 53 58 58 58 47 56 60 60 64 62 63 58 58 56 54 57 56 55 50 55 55 54 53 48 52 50 59 53 53 57 52 54 51 61 48 58 52 50 49 53 50 39 40 56 50 53 48 49 Nearly always 23 26 27 27 27 28 29 30 29 26 27 36 28 26 24 22 21 22 25 27 28 31 29 27 29 31 30 29 30 30 36 30 33 25 32 31 26 30 27 29 21 30 26 29 30 34 32 34 47 47 28 32 33 35 33 Part of the time 8 8 7 9 9 10 9 10 9 8 9 10 9 8 9 8 7 7 9 9 9 9 7 10 9 11 9 12 10 10 11 11 11 11 10 9 8 9 10 10 9 13 10 12 12 12 10 12 9 9 10 11 9 13 12 Seldom 5 5 5 6 6 5 4 4 3 5 4 3 6 4 4 4 6 5 4 5 5 4 5 4 5 6 5 3 4 5 3 6 4 4 4 5 6 6 6 6 7 6 4 6 6 4 4 4 2 3 5 5 4 4 5 (VOL.) Never vote 2 3 3 3 2 2 2 1 1 2 1 2 1 1 2 1 3 2 2 2 2 1 1 2 1 1 1 * 2 1 1 1 * 1 1 1 2 1 * 3 2 2 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 * (VOL.) Other 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 * 1 1 1 * * 1 * 1 1 1 1 * * 1 1 1 * * * 1 * * 0 1 * * * 1 2 3 1 * 1 1 1 1 1 0 * * * * 1 1 0 1 (VOL.) DK/Ref * * * 1 * * * 1 * * * 1 * 1 1 1 * * 1 1 1 * 1 1 1 1 * * * * 0 1 1 * * 1 * 0 * * * * * * * 0 * * * * * * * * 0

November, 2008 Late October, 2008 Mid-October, 2008 Early October, 2008 Late September, 2008 Mid-September, 2008 August, 2008 July, 2008 January, 2007 November, 2006 Late October, 2006 Early October, 2006 September, 2006 May, 2006 December, 2005 December, 2004 November, 2004 Mid-October, 2004 Early October, 2004 September, 2004 August, 2004 July, 2004 June, 2004 May, 2004 April, 2004 Late March, 2004 Mid-March, 2004 February, 2004 January, 2004 August, 2003 June, 2003 Early November, 2002 Early October, 2002 Early September, 2002 August, 2002 May, 2002 Early November, 2000 Late October, 2000 Mid-October, 2000 Early October, 2000 September, 2000 July, 2000 June, 2000 May, 2000 April, 2000 March, 2000 February, 2000 January, 2000 October, 1999 Late September, 1999 Late October, 1998 Early October, 1998 Early September, 1998 Late August, 1998 June, 1998

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OFTVOTE CONTINUED Always 52 42 62 54 55 52 52 53 52 52 44 49 42 53 53 58 55 52 57 54 52 60 50 49 47 50 40 46 42 45 57 51 43 49 51 43 Nearly always 29 44 26 30 28 30 31 29 33 33 37 35 41 35 34 28 32 34 31 33 33 29 35 35 36 36 35 41 42 30 26 37 41 39 40 43 Part of the time 12 10 8 10 8 9 10 12 8 9 11 10 11 7 9 8 10 10 7 8 8 7 10 10 11 9 11 9 11 10 10 8 11 9 6 9 Seldom 6 3 3 4 6 5 4 4 5 4 5 5 4 4 4 5 3 4 4 4 5 3 4 4 6 4 11 4 4 8 4 3 3 2 2 3 (VOL.) Never vote 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 * * * * 1 * 1 1 1 1 * * 4 * 1 6 2 1 2 1 * 1 (VOL.) Other 1 * * * 1 2 1 * 1 1 1 * 1 * * 1 * * 1 1 1 * * * * --* * 1 1 * 1 * 1 1 (VOL.) DK/Ref * * * * * * * * * * 1 * * * * 0 * * * * * * * * * 2 * * * * * * * * * *

May, 1998 November, 1997 October, 1997 June, 1997 November, 1996 October, 1996 Late September, 1996 Early September, 1996 July, 1996 June, 1996 Late April, 1996 Early April, 1996 February, 1996 October, 1995 April, 1995 November, 1994 Late October, 1994 July, 1994 May, 1993 Early October, 1992 September, 1992 June, 1992 May, 1992 Early May, 1992 March, 1992 February, 1992 January 1992 (GP)2 November, 1991 May, 1990 January, 1989 (GP) Gallup: November, 1988 October, 1988 May, 1988 January, 1988 September, 1988 May, 1987

ASK ALL REGISTERED VOTERS (REGFINAL=1): WHERE Do you happen to know where people in your area go to vote? BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS [N=3,151]: (VOL.) Vote absentee or by mail 3 3 3 2 (VOL.) Vote early at a central polling place or election office * * 0 --

Oct 31-Nov 3, 2012 Oct 24-28, 2012 Sep 12-16, 2012 Oct 27-30, 20103

Yes 86 87 86 88

No 10 10 10 9

(VOL.) DK/Ref 1 1 1 1

2 3

Trends for January 1992 and January 1989 are based on general public. In October, 2010 half the sample was asked about people in your neighborhood, the other half was asked about people in your area. No significant differences were found; combined data is shown here. For November 2008 and earlier, question asked about people in your neighborhood.

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WHERE CONTINUED November, 2008 Late October, 2008 November, 2006 Late October, 2006 Early October, 2006 November, 2004 November, 2002 November, 2000 Late October, 1998 Early October, 1998 November, 1996 October, 1996 November, 1994 November, 1988 (Gallup) October, 1988 (Gallup) NO QUESTIONS 1-4 ASK ALL REGISTERED VOTERS (REGFINAL=1): Q.5 If the presidential election were being held TODAY, would you vote for [READ AND RANDOMIZE REPUBLICAN AND DEMOCRATIC TICKETS FIRST AND RANDOMIZE JOHNSON AND STEIN LAST WHERE APPLICABLE] for the Republican ticket of Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan, for the Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden, for the Libertarian Party ticket headed by Gary Johnson or the Green Party ticket headed by Jill Stein4? ASK IF OTHER OR DK (Q.5=5,8,9): Q.5a As of TODAY, do you LEAN more to [READ IN SAME ORDER AS Q.5]? ASK IF CHOSE ROMNEY OR OBAMA IN Q.5 (Q.5=1-2) ASK: Q.5b Do you support [INSERT LAST NAME OF PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE CHOSEN IN Q.5; DO NOT READ VP CHOICE] strongly or only moderately? 5 BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS [N=3,151]: Only Romney Strongly mod DK Oct 31-Nov 3, 2012 42 30 12 * Oct 24-28, 2012 45 30 15 * Oct 4-7, 2012 46 31 14 * Sep 12-16, 2012 42 24 18 * Jul 16-26, 20126 41 Jun 28-Jul 9, 2012 43 15 28 1 Jun 7-17, 2012 46 17 27 1 May 9-Jun 3, 2012 42 Apr 4-15, 2012 45 Mar 7-11, 2012 42 Feb 8-12, 2012 44 Jan 11-16, 2012 45 Nov 9-14, 2011 47 Sep 22-Oct 4, 2011 48 TREND FOR COMPARISON: BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS: November, 2008 Late October, 2008
4 5 6

Yes 85 83 84 86 88 85 88 84 90 87 88 85 93 89 86

No/DK/Ref 15 17 16 14 12 15 12 16 10 13 12 15 7 11 14

Only Obama Strongly mod DK Johnson Stein 49 37 12 * 3 1 47 32 15 * 2 1 46 32 15 * n/a n/a 51 35 16 * n/a n/a 51 n/a n/a 50 32 18 * n/a n/a 50 30 20 * n/a n/a 49 n/a n/a 49 n/a n/a 54 n/a n/a 52 n/a n/a 50 n/a n/a 49 n/a n/a 48 n/a n/a

(VOL.) Other/ DK/Ref 5 5 8 7 7 6 5 9 6 4 4 6 4 4

Only McCain Strongly mod DK 39 21 18 * 36 20 15 1

Only Obama Strongly mod DK 50 35 14 1 52 39 12 1

Nader 1 3

Barr 1 1

Other/ DK/Ref 9 8

Each respondent was asked about the candidates on the ballot in his or her state. Those who lean to a candidate are included in Only moderately. After July 2012, August 2008, June 2004, July 2000, July 1996, June 1992, and June 1988 the question specified vice presidential candidates.

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Q.5-Q.5b TRENDS FOR COMPARISON CONTINUED Only Only McCain Strongly mod DK Obama Strongly mod DK Mid-October, 2008 38 21 16 1 52 36 16 * Early October, 2008 40 21 18 1 50 36 14 * Late September, 2008 42 23 19 * 49 33 15 1 Mid-September, 2008 44 25 19 * 46 30 15 1 August, 2008 43 17 26 * 46 27 19 * July, 2008 42 17 24 1 47 24 22 1 June, 2008 40 14 26 * 48 28 19 1 Late May, 2008 44 47 April, 2008 44 50 March, 2008 43 49 Late February, 2008 43 50 Bush 45 45 48 49 45 44 46 43 44 42 48 45 46 43 44 47 52 50 Bush 41 45 43 43 41 42 42 41 51 49 48 45 46 43 46 55 54 54 53 54 50 53 Strongly 26 29 25 26 21 Only mod DK 15 * 16 * 18 * 17 * 19 1 Strongly 34 32 35 33 32 Only mod DK 11 * 13 * 12 1 15 1 13 * Kerry 46 45 41 43 47 46 42 46 43 49 46 50 47 52 48 47 41 42 Gore 45 43 45 44 47 41 35 42 39 35 46 46 45 49 45 40 39 39 42 41 44 40 Strongly 25 24 22 22 25 Only mod DK 19 1 19 * 23 * 22 * 21 1 Strongly 29 28 24 22 28 Only mod DK 16 1 16 1 17 * 20 1 19 *

Nader n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a Nader 1 1 2 1 2 3 6 6 6 4 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a

Barr n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a

Other/ DK/Ref 10 10 9 10 11 11 12 9 6 8 7 Other/ DK/Ref 8 9 9 7 6 7 6 5 7 5 6 5 7 5 8 6 7 8

November, 2004 Mid-October, 2004 Early October, 2004 September, 2004 August, 2004 July, 2004 June, 2004 May, 2004 Late March, 2004 Mid-March, 2004 Two-way trial heats: June, 2004 May, 2004 Late March, 2004 Mid-March, 2004 Late February, 2004 Early February, 2004 Early January, 2004 October, 2003

November, 2000 Late October, 2000 Mid-October, 2000 Early October, 2000 September, 2000 July, 2000 Late June, 2000 Mid-June, 2000 January, 2000 September, 1999 Two-way trial heats: July, 2000 Mid-June, 2000 May, 2000 March, 2000 February, 2000 December, 1999 October, 1999 September, 1999 July, 1999 March, 1999 January, 1999 Early September, 1998

Other/ Nader Buchanan DK/Ref 4 1 9 4 1 7 4 1 7 5 * 8 2 1 9 6 2 9 2 2 19 4 3 10 n/a 4 6 n/a 10 6 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 6 9 9 8 9 5 7 7 5 5 6 7

20 19

25 27

* *

18 18

27 26

1 1

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Q.5-Q.5b TRENDS FOR COMPARISON CONTINUED Only Only Dole Strongly mod DK Clinton Strongly mod DK November, 1996 32 17 15 * 51 26 24 1 October, 1996 34 17 16 1 51 25 26 * Late September, 1996 35 16 18 1 51 26 25 * Early September, 1996 34 17 17 * 52 26 26 0 July, 1996 34 44 March, 1996 35 44 September, 1995 36 42 July, 1994 36 39 Two-way trial heats: July, 1996 42 11 30 * 53 20 31 1 June, 1996 40 13 23 1 55 22 29 1 April, 1996 40 54 March, 1996 41 53 February, 1996 44 52 January, 1996 41 53 July, 1994 49 46 Only Bush Sr. Strongly mod DK Late October, 1992 34 20 14 -Early October, 1992 35 14 21 -June, 1992 31 Two-way trial heats: September, 1992 38 14 21 -August, 1992 37 14 23 -June, 1992 46 13 33 -May, 1992 46 15 31 -Late March, 1992 50 19 31 -Only Bush Sr. Strongly mod DK 50 24 26 -50 26 24 -40 12 28 -Only Clinton Strongly mod DK 44 26 18 -48 23 25 -27 53 57 41 43 43 25 24 9 10 9 28 33 32 33 34 ------

Perot 9 8 7 8 16 16 19 20 n/a n/a

Other/ DK/Ref 8 7 7 6 6 5 3 5 5 5 6 6 4 6 5 Other/ DK/Ref 3 9 6 9 6 13 11 7 Other/ DK/Ref 8 6 7

Perot 19 8 36 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a

October, 1988 September, 1988 May, 1988

Only Dukakis Strongly mod DK 42 20 22 -44 19 25 -53 14 39 --

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ASK ALL REGISTERED VOTERS (REGFINAL=1): Q.5 If the presidential election were being held TODAY, would you vote for [READ AND RANDOMIZE REPUBLICAN AND DEMOCRATIC TICKETS FIRST AND RANDOMIZE JOHNSON AND STEIN LAST WHERE APPLICABLE] for the Republican ticket of Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan, for the Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden, for the Libertarian Party ticket headed by Gary Johnson or the Green Party ticket headed by Jill Stein7? ASK IF OTHER OR DK (Q.5=5,8,9): Q.5a As of TODAY, do you LEAN more to [READ IN SAME ORDER AS Q.5]? ASK IF CHOOSE ROMNEY (Q.5=1 OR Q.5a=1): Q.5c Would you say that your choice is more a vote FOR Mitt Romney or more a vote AGAINST Barack Obama? ASK IF CHOOSE OBAMA (Q.5=2 OR Q.5a=2): Q.5d Would you say that your choice is more a vote FOR Barack Obama or more a vote AGAINST Mitt Romney? BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS [N=3,151]: ProAntiProAntiRomney Romney Obama DK Obama Obama Romney Oct 31-Nov 3, 2012 42 25 16 2 49 38 10 Oct 24-28, 2012 45 25 17 2 47 34 11 Oct 4-7, 2012 46 46 Sep 12-16, 2012 42 19 22 1 51 38 11 Jul 16-26, 2012 41 51 Jun 28-Jul 9, 2012 43 50 Jun 7-17, 2012 46 50 May 9-Jun 3, 2012 42 16 24 2 49 35 11 Apr 4-15, 2012 45 49 Mar 7-11, 2012 42 54 Feb 8-12, 2012 44 52 Jan 11-16, 2012 45 50 Nov 9-14, 2011 47 49 Sep 22-Oct 4, 20119 48 15 33 1 48 33 11 DK 1 2 * 2 Other/ DK/Ref8 9 8 8 7 7 6 5 9 6 4 4 6 4 4

TREND FOR COMPARISON: BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS: ProAntiProAntiMcCain McCain Obama DK Obama Obama McCain DK Nader10 November, 2008 39 50 1 Late October, 2008 36 52 3 Mid-October, 2008 38 24 12 2 52 40 10 2 n/a Early October, 2008 40 50 n/a Late September, 200842 49 n/a Mid-September, 2008 44 29 13 2 46 32 11 3 n/a August, 2008 43 25 16 2 46 33 12 1 n/a July, 2008 42 25 14 3 47 32 12 3 n/a June, 2008 40 48 n/a Late May, 2008 44 28 14 2 47 35 11 1 n/a April, 2008 44 50 n/a March, 2008 43 49 n/a Late February, 2008 43 27 14 2 50 38 10 2 n/a Bush 45 45 ProBush 34 32 AntiKerry 9 10 DK 2 3 Kerry 46 45 ProKerry 20 18 AntiBush 23 24 DK Nader 3 1 3 1

Barr 1 1 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a Fourth party n/a n/a

Other/ DK/Ref 9 8 10 10 9 10 11 11 12 9 6 8 7 Other/ DK/Ref 8 9

November, 2004 Mid-October, 2004


7 8 9

10

Each respondent was asked about the candidates on the ballot in his or her state. Includes Johnson and Stein in October 24-28, 2012 survey. See Q5/Q5a/Q5b earlier for vote choice for these candidates. Pro- and Anti- percentages for October 2011 may not sum to candidates overall percentage, because they were asked only of half-sample. The question regarding whether a vote was more for ones candidate of choice or more against his opponents was not asked of Nader or Barr supporters in 2008, Nader supporters in 2004, or Nader or Buchanan supporters in 2000.

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Q.5/Q.5a/Q.5c/Q.5d TRENDS FOR COMPARISON CONTINUED ProAntiProBush Bush Kerry DK Kerry Kerry Early October, 2004 48 36 10 2 41 15 September, 2004 49 38 9 2 43 15 August, 2004 45 34 8 3 47 20 July, 2004 44 46 June, 2004 46 42 May, 2004 43 46 Late March, 2004 44 43 Mid-March, 2004 42 49 Two-way trial heats: June, 2004 48 35 11 2 46 17 May, 2004 45 33 10 2 50 15 Late March, 2004 46 36 8 2 47 17 Mid-March, 2004 43 34 7 2 52 21 Late February, 2004 44 48 Early February, 2004 47 39 6 2 47 15 Early January, 2004 52 41 October, 2003 50 42 Bush November, 2000 41 Late October, 2000 45 Mid-October, 2000 43 Early October, 2000 43 September, 2000 41 July, 2000 42 Late June, 2000 42 Mid-June, 2000 41 January, 2000 51 September, 1999 49 Two-way trial heats: July, 2000 48 Mid-June, 2000 45 May, 2000 46 March, 2000 43 February, 2000 46 December, 1999 55 October, 1999 54 September, 1999 54 July, 1999 53 March, 1999 54 January, 1999 50 September, 1998 53 Dole November, 1996 32 October, 1996 34 Late September, 1996 35 Early September, 1996 34 July, 1996 34 March, 1996 35 September, 1995 36 July, 1994 36 Two-way trial heats: July, 1996 42 June, 1996 40 April, 1996 40 March, 1996 41 ProBush 27 AntiGore 12 DK 2 Gore 45 43 45 44 47 41 35 42 39 35 46 46 45 49 45 40 39 39 42 41 44 40 Pro- AntiDK Clinton Clinton other 2 51 33 15 1 51 33 16 51 1 52 35 15 44 44 42 39 53 55 54 53 ProGore 29

AntiBush 23 26 24

DK Nader 3 2 2 1 3 2 3 6 6 6 4 2 3 3 2 2 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a

Fourth party n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a

Other/ DK/Ref 9 7 6 7 6 5 7 5 6 5 7 5 8 6 7 8

27 32 27 29 30

AntiBush 14

24

14

30

14

Other/ DK Nader Buchanan DK/Ref 2 4 1 9 4 1 7 4 1 7 5 * 8 3 2 1 9 6 2 9 2 2 19 4 3 10 n/a 4 6 n/a 10 6 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 6 9 9 8 9 5 7 7 5 5 6 7 Other/ DK/Ref 8 7 7 6 6 5 3 5 5 5 6 6

Pro- AntiDole other 15 15 15 18 16 17

Pro- AntiDK Perot Perot other DK 3 9 4 5 * 2 8 4 4 * 7 2 8 3 5 0 16 16 19 20 n/a n/a n/a n/a

15

25

30

20

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Q.5/Q.5a/Q.5c/Q.5d TRENDS FOR COMPARISON CONTINUED Pro- AntiPro- AntiDole Dole other DK Clinton Clinton other February, 1996 44 52 January, 1996 41 53 July, 1994 49 46 Pro- AntiBush Sr. Bush other Late October, 1992 34 19 13 Early October, 1992 35 19 13 June, 1992 31 Two-way trial heats: September, 1992 38 20 16 August, 1992 37 20 16 June, 1992 46 May, 1992 46 Late March, 1992 50 33 15 ProBush Sr. Bush October, 1988 50 31 September, 1988 50 31 May, 1988 40 26 Pro- AntiDK Clinton Clinton other 2 44 25 17 3 48 23 22 27 2 1 2 AntiDukakis 16 15 11 53 57 41 43 43 DK 3 4 3 21 27 13 29 28 28

Pro- AntiDK Perot Perot other DK n/a n/a n/a Pro- AntiDK Perot Perot other DK 2 19 10 7 2 3 8 3 5 * 36 3 2 2 AntiBush 15 19 26 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a DK 4 4 4 Third party n/a n/a n/a Fourth party n/a n/a n/a

Other/ DK/Ref 4 6 5 Other/ DK/Ref 3 9 6 9 6 13 11 7 Other/ DK/Ref 8 6 7

DuProkakis Dukakis 42 23 44 21 53 23

ASK IF DID NOT CHOOSE ROMNEY IN Q.5 OR Q.5a (Q.5=2,3,4 OR Q.5a=2,3,4,5,8,9): Q.6 Do you think there is a chance that you might vote for Mitt Romney in November, or have you definitely decided not to vote for him? BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS [N=3,151]: Chance might vote for 5 6 8 8 8 9 10 Decided not to vote for 49 45 42 45 44 42 40 (VOL.) DK/Ref 4=58% 5=55% 4=54% 5=58% 4=57% 3=54% 5=55%

Romney Oct 31-Nov 3, 2012 Oct 24-28, 2012 Oct 4-7, 2012 Sep 12-16, 2012 Jun 28-Jul 9, 2012 Jun 7-17, 2012 Apr 4-15, 2012

TRENDS FOR COMPARISON: McCain November, 2008 Late October, 2008 Mid-October, 2008 Early October, 2008 Late September, 2008 Mid-September, 2008 August, 2008 July, 2008 June, 2008 Bush November, 2004 Mid-October, 2004 Early October, 2004 September, 2004 August, 2004 July, 2004

7 7 9 10 10 9 14 13 12 6 5 9 9 10 10

47 51 47 45 42 40 37 38 41 44 43 39 38 42 41

7=61% 6=64% 6=62% 5=60% 6=58% 7=56% 6=57% 7=58% 7=60% 5=55% 7=55% 4=52% 4=51% 3=55% 5=56%

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Q.6 TRENDS FOR COMPARISON CONTINUED Chance might Decided not vote for to vote for June, 200411 9 41 May, 2004 9 42 Late March, 2004 11 40 Mid-March, 2004 11 44 Late February, 2004 10 43 Early February, 2004 10 41 November, 2000 8 44 Late October, 2000 10 41 Mid-October, 2000 12 40 Early October, 2000 11 39 September, 2000 15 38 Mid-June, 2000 15 33 Dole November, 1996 8 54 October, 1996 11 51 Late September, 1996 16 44 Early September, 1996 14 47 July, 1996 15 40 Bush Sr. Late October, 1992 11 53 Early October, 1992 13 46 September, 1992 12 44 August, 1992 15 45 May, 1992 8 40

(VOL.) DK/Ref 2=52% 4=55% 3=54% 2=57% 3=56% 2=53% 7=59% 4=55% 5=57% 7=57% 6=59% 6=54% 6=68% 4=66% 5=65% 5=66% 3=58% 2=66% 6=65% 6=62% 4=64% 5=53%

ASK IF DID NOT CHOOSE OBAMA IN Q.5 OR Q.5a (Q.5=1,3,4 OR Q.5a=1,3,4,5,8,9): Q.7 Do you think there is a chance that you might vote for Barack Obama in November, or have you definitely decided not to vote for him? BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS [N=3,151]: Chance might vote for 4 4 5 7 6 6 6 6 7 8 7 8 11 12 12 14 Decided not to vote for 43 45 45 39 41 42 42 38 35 35 38 37 38 36 34 32 (VOL.) DK/Ref 4=51% 4=53% 3=54% 4=49% 3=50% 2=50% 3=51% 6=50% 6=48% 5=48% 5=50% 6=51% 5=54% 6=54% 7=53% 6=52%

Obama Oct 31-Nov 3, 2012 Oct 24-28, 2012 Oct 4-7, 2012 Sep 12-16, 2012 Jun 28-Jul 9, 2012 Jun 7-17, 2012 Apr 4-15, 2012 November, 2008 Late October, 2008 Mid-October, 2008 Early October, 2008 Late September, 2008 Mid-September, 2008 August, 2008 July, 2008 June, 2008

TRENDS FOR COMPARISON: Kerry November, 2004 6 Mid-October, 2004 6 Early October, 2004 9
11

43 42 45

5=54% 7=55% 5=59%

In June 2004, May 2004, Late March 2004, Mid-March 2004, Mid-June 2000 and July 1996 the head-to-head match-up was asked both as a three-way and a two-way trial heat. In those surveys, this question followed the two-way trial heat.

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Q.7 TRENDS FOR COMPARISON CONTINUED Chance might Decided not vote for to vote for September, 2004 11 42 August, 2004 11 39 July, 2004 13 36 June, 200412 10 41 May, 2004 11 35 Late March, 2004 13 37 Mid-March, 2004 13 32 Late February, 2004 13 36 Early February, 2004 15 33 Gore November, 2000 8 41 Late October, 2000 9 44 Mid-October, 2000 10 40 Early October, 2000 11 38 September, 2000 13 35 June, 2000 14 34 Clinton November, 1996 6 37 October, 1996 10 35 Late September, 1996 11 35 Early September, 1996 10 34 July, 1996 8 36 Late October, 1992 11 43 Early October, 1992 14 32 September, 1992 12 28 August, 1992 14 26 May, 1992 11 38

(VOL.) DK/Ref 4=57% 3=53% 5=54% 3=54% 4=50% 3=53% 3=48% 3=52% 5=53% 6=55% 4=57% 5=55% 7=56% 5=53% 6=54% 6=49% 4=49% 3=49% 4=48% 4=48% 2=56% 6=52% 6=46% 3=43% 6=55%

ASK ALL NON-VOTERS (REGFINAL=2): Q.8 If the presidential election were being held TODAY, who would you like to see win [READ AND RANDOMIZE]? ASK IF OTHER OR DK (Q.8=3,9): Q.8a As of TODAY, do you LEAN more to [READ IN SAME ORDER AS Q.8]? BASED ON NON-VOTERS [N=664]: Oct 31-Nov 3 2012 23 Mitt Romney, the Republican 65 Barack Obama, the Democrat 2 Other candidate (VOL.) 11 Dont know/Refused (VOL.) Oct 24-28 2012 19 65 3 13

12

In June 2004, May 2004, Late March 2004, Mid-March 2004, Mid-June 2000 and July 1996 the head-to-head match-up was asked both as a three-way and a two-way trial heat. In those surveys, this question followed the two-way trial heat.

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ASK ALL REGISTERED VOTERS (REGFINAL=1): PLAN1 Do you plan to vote in the presidential election, have you ALREADY voted, or dont you plan to vote? ASK IF VOTED EARLY (PLAN1=2): EARLY1 Did you vote in person or did you mail in your ballot? ASK IF PLAN TO VOTE (PLAN1=1): PLAN3 How certain are you that you will vote? Are you absolutely certain, fairly certain, or not certain? BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS [N=3,151]: Oct 31-Nov 3 2012 69 Plan to vote 64 Absolutely certain 5 Fairly certain * Not certain 1 Dont know/Refused (VOL.) 28 Already voted 15 Voted in person 13 Mailed in ballot * Other way (VOL.) * Dont know/Refused (VOL.) 2 Dont plan to vote 1 Dont know/Refused (VOL.) Oct 24-28 Nov Late Oct 2012 2008 2008 81 72 81 74 67 75 6 5 6 * * * * * * 16 26 15 6 --9 --* --0 --2 1 3 1 1 1

TREND FOR COMPARISON: ASK ALL REGISTERED VOTERS: Do you yourself plan to vote in the election this November? ASK IF PLAN TO VOTE: How certain are you that you will vote? Are you absolutely certain, fairly certain, or not certain? BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS: 2012 Election Oct 4-7, 201214 Sep 12-16, 2012 Jun 7-17, 2012 2010 Election Aug 25-Sep 6, 2010 Jul 21-Aug 5, 201015 Jun 16-20, 2010 Mar 11-21, 2010 2008 Election Mid-October, 2008 Early October, 2008 Late September, 2008 Mid-September, 2008 August, 2008 July, 2008 June, 2008 2006 Election November, 2006 Late October, 2006
13 14 15

Yes, plan Absolutely Fairly Not No, dont to vote certain certain certain13 plan to 96 89 6 * 3 97 89 7 1 2 97 86 10 * 2 94 91 90 91 97 97 97 97 97 97 95 90 94 -70 69 69 92 92 91 90 --85 ---17 19 20 5 4 6 6 --8 ---3 2 2 * 1 * 1 --2 --4 7 8 6 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 8 3

(VOL.) DK/Ref 2 1 1 3 2 2 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 3 2 3

Dont know responses to PLANTO2 not shown. In October 2012, Mid-October 2008 and from Mid-October 2004 to November 2006 and in Early November 2002, the Yes, Plan to vote category also includes people who volunteered that they already voted. From March 11-21, 2010 to July 21-August 5, 2010, question asked Thinking ahead to November, do you yourself plan to vote in the Congressional election this November, or not? In November 2006, Early November 2002, Early November, 2000, Late October 1998, November 1996 and November 1994 the question was worded: Do you yourself plan to vote in the election this Tuesday, or not?

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PLAN1/PLAN3 TREND FOR COMPARISON CONTINUED Yes, plan Absolutely Fairly Not No, dont to vote certain certain certain plan to Early October, 2006 93 75 17 1 4 Early September, 2006 92 ---5 2004 Election November, 2004 97 ---2 Mid-October, 2004 98 ---1 Early October, 2004 98 91 6 1 1 September, 2004 98 91 6 1 1 August, 2004 98 89 8 1 2 June, 2004 96 85 10 1 2 2002 Election Early November, 2002 90 ---8 Early October, 2002 95 ---3 2000 Election Early November, 2000 96 ---3 Late October, 2000 97 ---2 Mid-October, 2000 96 ---2 Early October, 2000 97 87 9 1 2 September, 2000 95 84 10 1 3 June, 2000 95 84 10 1 2 1998 Election Late October, 1998 91 ---6 Early October, 1998 92 ---4 Early September, 1998 95 ---2 Late August, 1998 93 75 17 1 3 June, 1998 95 74 19 2 3 1996 Election November, 1996 96 ---2 October, 1996 98 87 10 1 1 Late September, 1996 98 89 8 1 1 Early September, 1996 96 83 11 2 2 July, 1996 95 82 12 1 3 June, 1996 96 84 11 1 2 1994 Election November, 1994 93 ---5 October, 1994 95 ---3 1992 Election October, 1992 98 91 6 1 1 September, 1992 98 85 11 2 1 August, 1992 97 89 8 * 1 June, 1992 97 88 8 1 1 1988 Election Gallup: November, 1988 97 87 9 1 2 October, 1988 98 ---1

(VOL.) DK/Ref 3 3 1 1 1 1 * 2 2 2 1 1 2 1 2 3 3 4 3 4 2 2 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 2 2 1 1

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ASK ALL REGISTERED VOTERS (REGFINAL=1): PLAN1 Do you plan to vote in the presidential election, have you ALREADY voted, or dont you plan to vote? ASK IF YES IN PLAN1 (PLAN1=1): PLAN2 Do you plan to cast your vote BEFORE Election Day or ON Election Day? BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS [N=3,151]: Oct 31-Nov 3 2012 59 Plan to vote on Election Day 37 Plan to vote early/Already voted 9 Will vote before Election Day 28 Already voted 1 Plan to vote but dont know when 3 Dont plan to vote/Dont know/Refused (VOL.) NO QUESTIONS 9-13 ASK ALL: Thinking more generally FOLGOV Would you say you follow whats going on in government and public affairs [READ]? BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS [N=3,151]: Most of the time 69 58 65 60 55 57 56 59 62 61 58 57 54 49 61 63 49 56 57 60 55 51 51 45 46 40 52 57 51 52 42 Some of Only now Hardly the time and then at all 21 7 3 26 10 5 23 8 4 26 10 4 28 11 5 28 11 4 29 10 5 27 10 4 25 9 4 27 8 4 26 10 6 30 8 5 29 12 5 35 12 4 27 9 3 26 8 3 35 11 4 31 10 3 26 11 6 29 8 2 26 11 7 32 12 5 34 10 4 31 15 8 32 17 5 35 17 8 27 11 9 29 10 4 33 11 5 33 11 4 33 18 7 (VOL.) DK/Ref * * * * 1 * 1 * * * * * 0 * * * * * 1 0 1 * 1 * * * * * * * * Oct 24-28 Nov Late Oct 2012 2008 2008 58 62 64 36 35 31 20 9 16 16 26 15 3 1 1 3 2 4

Oct 31-Nov 3, 2012 Oct 24-28, 2012 Oct 4-7, 2012 Sep 12-16, 2012 Sep 22-Oct 4, 2011 Feb 22-Mar 14, 2011 Oct 27-30, 2010 Oct 13-18, 2010 Aug 25-Sep 6, 201016 January, 2007 November, 2006 Late October, 2006 December, 2005 December, 2004 November, 2004 Mid-October, 2004 June, 2004 August, 2003 November, 2002 August, 2002 March, 2001 Early November, 2000 September, 2000 June, 2000 Late September, 1999 August, 1999 (GP) November, 1998 Late October, 1998 Early October, 1998 Early September, 1998 June, 1998
16

In the Aug. 25-Sept. 6, 2010 survey, a wording experiment was conducted with one half of respondents asked the question wording shown above, the other half was asked: Some people seem to follow whats going on in government and public affairs most of the time, whether theres an election or not. Others arent that interested. Would you say you follow whats going on in government and public affairs No significant differences were found between questions and the combined results are shown above. All surveys prior to Sept. 2010 used the longer question wording.

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FOLGOV CONTINUED November, 1997 November, 1996 October, 1996 June, 1996 October, 1995 April, 1995 November, 1994 October, 1994 July, 1994 May, 1990 February, 1989 (GP) October, 1988 May, 1988 (GP) January, 1988 November, 1987 (GP) May, 1987 July, 1985 Most of the time 47 52 43 47 52 49 57 52 51 43 47 52 37 42 49 47 41 Some of Only now Hardly the time and then at all 34 14 4 32 12 4 37 13 6 34 14 5 34 11 4 34 13 4 30 10 3 34 10 4 32 13 4 36 15 6 34 14 4 33 12 3 37 17 6 35 17 5 32 14 4 35 13 5 34 18 7 (VOL.) DK/Ref * * 1 * * * * 0 * * 1 * 3 2 1 1 1

ASK FORM 1 REGISTERED VOTERS (REGFINAL=1 AND FORM=1): Q.14F1 In your opinion, is the outcome of this presidential election especially important, or is it no more important than any other presidential election? BASED ON FORM 1 REGISTERED VOTERS [N=1,592]: Oct 31-Nov 3 2012 81 Especially important 18 No more important than the others 1 Don't know/Refused (VOL.) Nov Late Oct Nov 2008 2008 2004 84 81 84 15 18 15 1 1 1 Nov 2000 67 31 2 Nov 1996 61 38 1

ASK ALL FORM 2 REGISTERED VOTERS (REGFINAL=1 AND FORM=2): Q.15F2 Regardless of who you might support, who do you think is most likely to win the presidential election? [READ AND RANDOMIZE]? BASED ON FORM 2 REGISTERED VOTERS [N=1,559]: 2012 Election Oct 31-Nov 3, 2012 Oct 24-28, 2012 Sep 12-16, 2012 Jun 7-17, 2012 Mar 7-11, 201217 2008 Election Mid-October, 2008 Mid-September, 2008 June, 2008 April, 200818 March, 2008 2004 Election November, 2004 Mid-October, 2004 Early October, 2004
17

Republican 30 31 24 34 32 17 39 27 42 38 48 54 61 Romney Romney Romney Romney Romney McCain McCain McCain McCain McCain Bush Bush Bush

Democrat 52 49 53 52 59 61 39 53 47 50 27 27 27 Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama Kerry Kerry Kerry

(VOL.) Other/DK 18 19 23 15 9 22 22 20 11 12 25 19 12

18

In March 2012, this question was asked both about Mitt Romney/Barack Obama and Rick Santorum/ Barack Obama, and read: Regardless of who you might support, who do you think is most likely to win the presidential election if it is between In March and April 2008, this question was asked both about John McCain/Barack Obama and John McCain/Hillary Clinton, and read: Regardless of who you might support, who do you think is most likely to win the presidential election if it is between

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Q.15F2 CONTINUED September, 2004 August, 2004 July, 2004 June, 2004 May, 2004 Early February, 2004 Mid-January, 2004 September, 2003 June, 2003 2000 Election November, 2000 Late October, 2000 Early October, 2000 June, 2000 October, 1999 1996 Election Late September, 199619 Early September, 1996 July, 1996 1992 Election October, 1992 March, 1992 February, 1992 October, 1991 NO QUESTIONS 16-22 RANDOMIZE ORDER OF Q.23 AND Q.24 ASK ALL REGISTERED VOTERS (REGFINAL=1): Q.23 Which word best describes how you would feel if Barack Obama were to win the election on Tuesday? Would you feel [READ; READ IN REVERSE ORDER FOR HALF SAMPLE]? [INTERVIEWER INSTRUCTION: IF RESPONDENT VOLUNTEERS THAT THEY ARE INDIFFERENT OR WOULDNT CARE, CODE IN PUNCH 8] BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS [N=3,151]: Oct 31-Nov 3 2012 25 Excited 26 Relieved 30 Disappointed 10 Angry 6 None/Other/Indifferent (VOL.) 3 Dont know/Refused (VOL.) Republican 60 Bush 44 Bush 42 Bush 51 Bush 52 Bush 56 Bush 61 Bush 47 Bush 66 Bush 43 48 33 51 70 12 16 19 30 72 66 78 Bush Bush Bush Bush Bush Dole Dole Dole Bush, Bush, Bush, Bush, Sr. Sr. Sr. Sr. Democrat 22 Kerry 37 Kerry 38 Kerry 35 Kerry 31 Kerry 32 Dem Candidate 21 Dem Candidate 34 Dem Candidate 22 Dem Candidate 32 38 46 33 23 79 75 72 61 20 25 11 Gore Gore Gore Gore Gore Clinton Clinton Clinton Clinton Dem Candidate Dem Candidate Dem Candidate (VOL.) Other/DK 18 19 20 14 17 12 18 19 12 25 14 21 16 7 9 9 9 9 8 9 11

19

In 1996 and October 1992, the question also asked about Ross Perot. Results here are included in the Other/DK category.

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RANDOMIZE ORDER OF Q.23 AND Q.24 ASK ALL REGISTERED VOTERS (REGFINAL=1): Q.24 Which word best describes how you would feel if Mitt Romney were to win the election on Tuesday? Would you feel [READ; READ IN SAME ORDER AS Q.23]? [INTERVIEWER INSTRUCTION: IF RESPONDENT VOLUNTEERS THAT THEY ARE INDIFFERENT OR WOULDNT CARE, CODE IN PUNCH 8] BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS [N=3,151]: Oct 31-Nov 3 2012 19 Excited 23 Relieved 35 Disappointed 13 Angry 6 None/Other/Indifferent (VOL.) 4 Dont know/Refused (VOL.) ASK ALL: Q.25 Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling the impact of Hurricane Sandy? Oct 31-Nov 3, 2012 General Registered public voters 66 67 15 16 19 17

Approve Disapprove Don't know/Refused (VOL.)

TREND FOR COMPARISON: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling[INSERT ITEM, RANDOMIZE] The impact of Hurricane Katrina on New Orleans and the Gulf Coast? BASED ON GENERAL PUBLIC Mar 2006 32 58 10 Sep 2005 38 52 10

Approve Disapprove Don't know/Refused (VOL.)

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ASK ALL: PARTY In politics TODAY, do you consider yourself a Republican, Democrat, or independent? ASK IF INDEP/NO PREF/OTHER/DK/REF (PARTY=3,4,5,9): PARTYLN As of today do you lean more to the Republican Party or more to the Democratic Party? BASED ON LIKELY VOTERS [N=2,709]: (VOL.) (VOL.) No Other (VOL.) Democrat Independent preference party DK/Ref 36 29 1 1 2 35 27 2 * 1 31 30 1 1 1 39 30 1 * 2 Lean Rep 14 14 14 14 Lean Dem 12 12 14 13

Republican Oct 31-Nov 3, 2012 32 Oct 24-28, 2012 34 Oct 4-7, 2012 36 Sep 12-16, 2012 29

BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS [N=3,151]: (VOL.) (VOL.) No Other (VOL.) Democrat Independent preference party DK/Ref 35 30 2 1 3 34 29 2 * 1 32 31 1 1 1 37 31 1 * 2 38 33 2 1 2 36 34 1 * 2 35 35 1 * 1 35 31 2 * 3 34 35 1 * 1 38 31 1 1 1 34 31 1 * 1 33 38 2 * 2 32 32 3 * 2 (VOL.) (VOL.) No Other (VOL.) Democrat Independent preference party DK/Ref 34 34 3 1 3 33 33 4 * 2 31 36 3 1 3 35 36 2 * 2 33 38 4 * 3 33 37 3 * 3 33 39 2 * 2 32 36 4 * 4 31 39 3 * 2 34 36 3 1 2 32 36 4 1 2 31 42 3 * 2 31 35 4 * 4 32.3 32.7 34.4 36.0 32.9 33.1 32.8 33.5 31.5 31.4 37.4 35.2 35.1 31.5 34.1 30.9 30.2 29.5 30.5 29.8 3.1 3.6 3.4 3.6 4.3 4.4 4.5 3.8 4.8 5.0 .4 .4 .4 .3 .4 .3 .3 .4 .5 .7 2.5 2.8 2.8 3.0 2.9 3.4 2.8 3.0 2.5 2.7 Lean Rep 13 13 14 14 15 15 17 13 16 15 13 17 15 Lean Dem 13 13 14 13 12 15 14 12 12 14 15 14 12

Republican Oct 31-Nov 3, 2012 30 Oct 24-28, 2012 33 Oct 4-7, 2012 33 Sep 12-16, 2012 28 Jul 16-26, 2012 25 Jun 28-Jul 9, 2012 27 Jun 7-17, 2012 28 May 9-Jun 3, 2012 28 Apr 4-15, 2012 28 Mar 7-11, 2012 28 Feb 8-12, 2012 32 Jan 11-16, 2012 24 Jan 4-8, 2012 31

BASED ON GENERAL PUBLIC [N=3,815]: Republican Oct 31-Nov 3, 2012 26 Oct 24-28, 2012 28 Oct 4-7, 2012 27 Sep 12-16, 2012 24 Jul 16-26, 2012 22 Jun 28-Jul 9, 2012 24 Jun 7-17, 2012 24 May 9-Jun 3, 2012 24 Apr 4-15, 2012 24 Mar 7-11, 2012 24 Feb 8-12, 2012 26 Jan 11-16, 2012 22 Jan 4-8, 2012 26 Yearly Totals 2011 24.3 2010 25.2 2009 23.9 2008 25.7 2007 25.3 2006 27.8 2005 29.3 2004 30.0 2003 30.3 2002 30.4 Lean Rep 13 12 15 14 14 15 17 13 15 16 13 17 14 15.7 14.5 13.1 10.6 10.9 10.5 10.3 11.7 12.0 12.4 Lean Dem 16 16 15 16 15 17 17 14 15 17 17 16 14 15.6 14.1 15.7 15.2 17.0 15.1 14.9 13.4 12.6 11.6

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PARTY/PARTYLN CONTINUED BASED ON GENERAL PUBLIC: Republican 2001 29.0 2001 Post-Sept 11 30.9 2001 Pre-Sept 11 27.3 2000 28.0 1999 26.6 1998 27.9 1997 28.0 1996 28.9 1995 31.6 1994 30.1 1993 27.4 1992 27.6 1991 30.9 1990 30.9 1989 33 1987 26 (VOL.) (VOL.) No Other (VOL.) Democrat Independent preference party DK/Ref 33.2 29.5 5.2 .6 2.6 31.8 27.9 5.2 .6 3.6 34.4 30.9 5.1 .6 1.7 33.4 29.1 5.5 .5 3.6 33.5 33.7 3.9 .5 1.9 33.7 31.1 4.6 .4 2.3 33.4 32.0 4.0 .4 2.3 33.9 31.8 3.0 .4 2.0 30.0 33.7 2.4 .6 1.3 31.5 33.5 1.3 -3.6 33.6 34.2 4.4 1.5 2.9 33.7 34.7 1.5 0 2.5 31.4 33.2 0 1.4 3.0 33.2 29.3 1.2 1.9 3.4 33 34 ---35 39 ----

Lean Rep 11.9 11.7 12.1 11.6 13.0 11.6 12.2 12.1 15.1 13.7 11.5 12.6 14.7 12.4 ---

Lean Dem 11.6 9.4 13.5 11.7 14.5 13.1 14.1 14.9 13.5 12.2 14.9 16.5 10.8 11.3 ---

ASK ALL REGISTERED VOTERS (REGFINAL=1): TEAPARTY2 From what you know, do you agree or disagree with the Tea Party movement, or dont you have an opinion either way? No opinion Disagree either way 29 47 25 52 26 53 27 54 27 49 25 52 25 54 26 50 29 48 25 53 24 52 25 52 27 50 27 51 27 51 27 50 24 53 26 50 23 54 29 47 25 54 25 52 22 53 22 50 26 49 22 49 (VOL.) Havent heard of 1 2 2 2 3 2 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 1 1 3 2 1 1 2 2 2 2 1 Not (VOL.) heard of/ Refused DK 3 -2 -2 -1 -2 -1 -3 -2 -2 -2 -2 -3 -2 -1 -1 -1 -1 -2 -2 -1 -1 -2 -2 -1 -2 -1 --

Oct 31-Nov 3, 2012 (RVs) 20 Oct 4-7, 2012 Sep 12-16, 2012 Jul 16-26, 2012 Jun 28-Jul 9, 2012 Jun 7-17, 2012 May 9-Jun 3, 2012 Apr 4-15, 2012 Mar 7-11, 2012 Feb 8-12, 2012 Jan 11-16, 2012 Jan 4-8, 2012 Dec 7-11, 2011 Nov 9-14, 2011 Sep 22-Oct 4, 2011 Aug 17-21, 2011 Jul 20-24, 2011 Jun 15-19, 2011 May 25-30, 2011 Mar 30-Apr 3, 2011 Mar 8-14, 2011 Feb 22-Mar 1, 2011 Feb 2-7, 201121 Jan 5-9, 2011 Dec 1-5, 2010 Nov 4-7, 2010
20 21

Agree 19 19 18 16 19 21 16 20 19 18 20 18 19 20 19 20 20 20 18 22 19 20 22 24 22 27

Trends based on general public except in current survey and where noted. In the February 2-7, 2011 survey and before, question read do you strongly agree, agree, disagree or strongly disagree with the Tea Party movement In October 2010 and earlier, question was asked only of those who had heard or read a lot or a little about the Tea Party. In May 2010 through October 2010, it was described as: the Tea Party movement that has been involved in campaigns and protests in the U.S. over the past year. In March 2010 it was described as the Tea Party protests that have taken place in the U.S. over the past year.

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TEAPARTY2 CONTINUED Agree 29 28 29 22 24 25 24 No opinion Disagree either way 25 32 24 30 26 32 18 37 18 30 18 31 14 29 (VOL.) Havent heard of -------Not (VOL.) heard of/ Refused DK 1 13 1 16 1 13 1 21 * 27 1 25 1 31

Oct 27-30, 2010 (RVs) Oct 13-18, 2010 (RVs) Aug 25-Sep 6, 2010 (RVs) Jul 21-Aug 5, 2010 Jun 16-20, 2010 May 20-23, 2010 Mar 11-21, 2010 ASK ALL: PVOTE08A

In the 2008 presidential election between Barack Obama and John McCain, did things come up that kept you from voting, or did you happen to vote? ASK IF YES (PVOTE08A=1): PVOTE08B Did you vote for Obama, McCain or someone else? BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS [N=3,151]: Other (VOL.) candidate DK/Ref 5 2 3 3 4 3 4 3 7 3 5 4 6 5 5 5 6 4 4 5 4 4 4 4 4 6 5 7 4 8 4 6 3 9 Did not vote 13 15 14 13 11 12 11 12 11 10 10 10 8 7 7 7 7 (VOL.) Dont remember/ Ref 2 * 1 1 1 * 1 * 1 2 1 1 * * * * *

Oct 31-Nov 3, 2012 Oct 24-28, 2012 Oct 4-7, 2012 Sep 12-16, 2012 Jun 7-17, 2012 Sep 22-Oct 4, 2011 Aug 17-21, 2011 Mar 8-14, 2011 Nov 4-7, 2010 Oct 27-30, 2010 Oct 13-18, 2010 Aug 25-Sep 6, 2010 Jan 6-10, 2010 Mar 31-Apr 21, 2009 Feb 4-8, 2009 Jan 7-11, 2009 December, 2008

Voted 86 84 85 86 88 88 89 88 89 88 89 89 92 93 93 93 93

Obama 46 43 42 47 45 46 46 46 45 44 45 46 44 47 48 48 50

McCain 33 35 37 32 33 32 33 32 33 35 35 34 37 34 33 35 32

ASK ALL REGISTERED VOTERS (REGFINAL=1): [IF RESPONDENT HAS ALREADY VOTED (PLAN1=2 AND EARLY1=1,2,3), CODE AS 10] SCALE10 I'd like you to rate your chance of voting in November on a scale of 10 to 1. If TEN represents a person who definitely will vote and ONE represents a person who definitely will NOT vote, where on this scale of 10 to 1 would you place yourself? BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS [N=3,151]: Definitely will vote 10 9 88 84 85 84 3 4 4 5 Definitely will not vote (VOL.) 2 1 DK/Ref * * * * 1 2 2 1 1 * 2 1

2012 Election Oct 31-Nov 3, 201222 Oct 24-28, 2012 Oct 4-7, 2012 Sep 12-16, 2012 2010 Election

8 2 4 3 4

7 1 2 2 2

6 1 1 1 1

5 2 2 1 2

4 * * * *

3 * * 1 *

22

In Oct 31-Nov 3, 2012, Oct 24-28, 2012, Oct 4-7, 2012, Oct 27-30, 2010, Oct 13-18, 2010, Late October, Mid-October and November 2008, November 2006, November 2004 and Early November 2002, the 10 definitely will vote category also includes people who volunteered that they already voted.

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SCALE10 CONTINUED Definitely will vote 10 72 71 71 86 86 86 84 80 80 72 71 68 67 87 87 66 64 80 83 80 78 70 64 77 77 78 67 66 77 77 73 9 6 8 9 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 10 9 4 4 9 10 6 5 7 7 6 9 7 9 10 9 10 5 7 8 8 5 7 7 3 2 3 3 5 4 5 9 9 9 3 3 9 10 5 5 4 5 7 10 7 7 6 8 9 4 6 7 7 4 3 3 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 4 4 2 1 1 3 4 2 1 3 2 4 4 2 2 2 2 4 3 2 3 6 1 2 2 * * 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 2 1 1 1 3 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 2 2 1 2 5 4 2 4 2 2 1 2 2 3 4 3 4 5 1 1 4 4 3 2 3 2 4 4 2 2 1 4 4 4 3 3 4 * 1 1 * * * 0 * * * * * 1 * * 1 1 * * 1 * 1 1 * * * 1 1 * * 1 3 1 1 1 * * * * 1 1 1 1 1 1 * * 1 * * 1 * 1 1 2 1 * * 1 1 1 * * Definitely will not vote (VOL.) 2 1 DK/Ref 1 3 1 * 4 1 * 2 1 * * * 1 * * 1 * * 1 * * 1 * * 1 * 1 1 1 * * * 1 * * * * 2 3 2 1 2 2 4 1 2 2 2 2 5 2 3 1 1 1 4 2 2 1 1 3 2 4 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 * 1 1 1 1 1 * 1 2 1 * 2 2

Oct 27-30, 2010 Oct 13-18, 2010 Aug 25-Sep 6, 2010 2008 Election November, 2008 Late October, 2008 Mid-October, 2008 Mid-September, 2008 August, 2008 July, 2008 2006 Election November, 2006 Late October, 2006 Early October, 2006 September, 2006 2004 Election November, 2004 Mid-October, 2004 2002 Election Early November, 2002 Early October, 2002 2000 Election Early November, 2000 Late October, 2000 Mid-October, 2000 Early October, 2000 1998 Election Late October, 1998 Early October, 1998 1996 Election November, 1996 October, 1996 Late September, 1996 1994 Election November, 1994 Late October, 1994 1992 Election Gallup: September, 1992 1988 Election Gallup: November, 1988 Gallup: October, 1988

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ASK IF DK OR REF TO Q.5a (Q.5a=8,9): One last question Q.30 I have been asked to try to get a choice for president from everyone I interview. Even though you may not have made up your mind, could you make a guess so I will have something to put down? The candidates are [READ AND RANDOMIZE REPUBLICAN AND DEMOCRATIC TICKETS FIRST AND RANDOMIZE JOHNSON AND STEIN LAST WHERE APPLICABLE]? [INTERVIEWER INSTRUCTION: Do not need to read entire list if respondent indicates a clear preference for one of the candidates] PROGRAMMING NOTE: PLEASE PROGRAM WHICH CANDIDATES WILL BE READ BASED ON THOSE THAT APPEAR ON THE BALLOT IN THEIR STATE USING RESPONSES TO STATEREG/STATENV (IF DK/REF TO STATEREG/STATENV, USE SAMPLE STATE). BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS WHO DK/REF TO Q.5a [N=156]: Oct 31-Nov 3, 2012 Romney 15 Obama 20 Johnson 2 Stein 2 Other/ DK/Ref 61

ASK IF CHOOSE JOHNSON, STEIN, OR OTHER (Q.5=3,4 OR Q.5a=3,4,5): One last question Q.31 Earlier you mentioned you support [INSERT NAME OF CANDIDATE MENTIONED IN Q.5/Q.5a (Gary Johnson/Jill Stein/Another candidate)], but if it came down to [RANDOMIZE: Barack Obama AND Mitt Romney] who would you rather see win the election? [IF NECESSARY READ IN SAME ORDER: (Barack Obama or Mitt Romney)?] BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS WHO CHOSE JOHNSON/STEIN/OTHER IN Q.5/Q.5a [N=100]: Oct 31-Nov 3 2012 41 Barack Obama 25 Mitt Romney 15 Other (VOL.) 19 Dont know/Refused (VOL.)

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