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The Growing Importance of Ethnic Voters in California Elections

- presented by
Mark DiCamillo Director, The Field Poll - to New America Media Ethnic Media Training Session University of California, Office of the President March 1, 2012
Field Research Corporation

Table 1

Californias Changing Registered Voter Population


During the past 12 years Californias registered voter rolls have increased by over 1.3 million, all of it coming from the states ethnic voter populations. Over this period, the proportion of Californias registered voters who are Latino increased from a 16% to 22% share.
2000
(in 000s) %

2012
(in 000s) %

Change +1,321,000 -407,000 +1,300,000 -50,000 +478,000

Total registered voters White non-Hispanic Latino African-American Asian-American/other

15,707 11,307 2,500 1,000 900

100% 72% 16% 6% 6%

17,028 10,900 3,800 950 1,378

100% 64% 22% 6% 8%

* Less than of 1%. Source: Totals are from the California Secretary of State. All other figures are Field Poll estimates.

Field Research Corporation

Table 2

Party Registration Differences in California Registered Voter Population by Race/Ethnicity


White non-Hispanics
Total Latino

AfricanAmerican

AsianAmerican

Democrats
(44%)

37%

56%

79%

40%

Republicans
(30%)

38%

18%

5%

26%

Non-partisan/ other parties


(26%)

25%

26%

16%

34%

Source: Field Poll estimates.


Field Research Corporation
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Table 3

Age Differences in California Registered Voters by Race/Ethnicity


White non-Hispanics Total
(33%) 18

Latino

AfricanAmerican

AsianAmerican

39

26%

50%

27%

36%

(44%) 40

64

44%

41%

49%

47%

(23%) 65

or older

30%

9%

24%

17%

Source: Field Poll estimates.


Field Research Corporation
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Table 4

Regional Differences in California Registered Voter Population by Race/Ethnicity


White non-Hispanics Total
(26%) Los

Latino

AfricanAmerican

AsianAmerican

Angeles

20% 19% 14%

40% 15% 15% 15% 12% 3%

34% 12% 17% 15% 20% 2%

24% 20% 10% 15% 27%

(18%) South (14%) Other

Coast
Southern CA

(17%) Central
(20%) San

Valley

18% 22%
7%

Francisco Bay Area Northern CA

(5%) Other

4%

Source: Field Poll estimates.


Field Research Corporation
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Table 5

Household Income Differences in California Registered Voter Population by Race/Ethnicity


White non-Hispanics Total

Latino

AfricanAmerican

AsianAmerican

Less than $40,000


(30%)

23%

48%

39%

30%

$40,000 - $79,999
(28%)

28%

24%

31%

22%

$80,000 or over
(33%)

40%

19%

20%

32%

Not reported
(9%)

9%

9%

9%

16%

Source: Field Poll estimates, 2010.


Field Research Corporation
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Table 6

The History of Presidential Election Outcomes in California (1948-present)


Democratic Winner Party Margin 2008 Obama D +24 1976 Democratic Winner Party Margin Ford R -2

2004
2000

Kerry
Gore

D
D

+10
+12

1972
1968

Nixon
Nixon

R
R

-13
-3

1996
1992 1988

Clinton
Clinton Bush

D
D R

+13
+13 -4

1964
1960 1956

Johnson
Nixon Eisenhower

D
R R

+18
-0.5 -11

1984
1980

Reagan
Reagan

R
R

-16
-17

1952
1948

Eisenhower
Truman

R
D

-14
+0.5

Field Research Corporation

Table 7

The Advantage that the Expanding Latino Electorate has Given Democratic Candidates in Presidential Elections in California (1984-2008)
% Latino voters cast for Latinos as % of total value Net Latino edge to Dem candidate

Democratic GOP candidate candidate

2008 2004 2000

74% 66% 68%

23 32 29

18% 18% 14%

+9.2 +6.1 +5.5

1996
1992 1988

70%
65% 65%

21
23 34

11%
10% 7%

+5.4
+4.2 +2.2

1984

55%

44

8%

+0.9

Source: Latino percentages based on exit polls conducted in California each year as compiled by The Field Poll.

Field Research Corporation

Table 8

California Voters Views of the Job Performance of President Barack Obama by Race/Ethnicity
Approve Disapprove
39%

Total registered voters Race/ethnicity

53%

White non-Hispanic Latino African-American


Asian-American
Source: February 2012 Field Poll.

46%

47%

64%

30%

75%

11%

66%

25%

Field Research Corporation

Table 9

California Voter Inclination to Re-Elect Barack Obama as President by Race/Ethnicity


Inclined Not inclined
41%

Total registered voters Race/ethnicity

51%

White non-Hispanic Latino African-American


Asian-American
Source: February 2012 Field Poll.

41%

52%

67%

23%

83%

16%

62%

28%

Field Research Corporation

Table 10

California Voter Preferences in the 2012 Presidential Election Obama (D) vs. Romney (R) by Race/Ethnicity
Obama (D) Romney (R)
35%

Total registered voters Race/ethnicity

55%

White non-Hispanic Latino African-American


Asian-American
Source: February 2012 Field Poll.

48%

43%

68%

21%

80%

13%

65%

21%

Field Research Corporation

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Table 11

Party Preferences of California Voters in the November 2012 Congressional Elections by Race/Ethnicity
Democratic candidate Republican candidate
35%

Total registered voters Race/ethnicity

46%

White non-Hispanic Latino African-American


Asian-American
Source: February 2012 Field Poll.

38%

42%

63%

22%

65%

13%

51%

25%

Field Research Corporation

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Table 12

California Voter Views About the Nations Health Reform Law by Race/Ethnicity
Support Oppose
37%

Total registered voters Race/ethnicity

52%

White non-Hispanic Latino African-American


Asian-American

46%

44%

65%

20%

70%

23%

55%

35%

Source: February 2011 Field-TCWF Health Policy Poll for The California Wellness Foundation.

Field Research Corporation

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Table 13

Voter Preferences Regarding Possible Statewide Ballot Initiatives on Taxes for the November 2012 General Election 1. California Federation of Teachers Millionaires Tax Initiative
Inclined to vote Yes No
31%

Total registered voters Race/ethnicity

63%

White non-Hispanic Latino African-American


Asian-American
Source: February 2012 Field Poll.

59%

35%

73%

23%

80%

17%

68%

29%

Field Research Corporation

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Table 14

Voter Preferences Regarding Possible Statewide Ballot Initiatives on Taxes for the November 2012 General Election 2. Governor Browns Tax Increase Initiative
Inclined to vote Yes No
36%

Total registered voters Race/ethnicity

58%

White non-Hispanic Latino African-American


Asian-American
Source: February 2012 Field Poll.

54%

40%

68%

28%

61%

32%

65%

28%

Field Research Corporation

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Table 15

Voter Preferences Regarding Possible Statewide Ballot Initiatives on Taxes for the November 2012 General Election 3. Munger Tax Increase Initiative
Inclined to vote Yes No
48%

Total registered voters Race/ethnicity

45%

White non-Hispanic Latino African-American


Asian-American
Source: February 2012 Field Poll.

36%

56%

60%

36%

68%

22%

62%

38%

Field Research Corporation

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Table 16

California Voter Opinions about Governor Browns Public Pension Reform Proposal by Race/Ethnicity
Goes too far Strikes the right balance
51

Doesnt go far enough


14%

Total registered voters Race/ethnicity

24%

White non-Hispanic Latino African-American


Asian-American
Source: November 2011 Field Poll.

16%

59%

13%

34%

44%

13%

54%

26%

13%

30%

44%

19%

Field Research Corporation

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Table 17

California Voter Preferences for the Sentencing of Someone Convicted of First-Degree Murder by Race/Ethnicity
Life in prison without parole Death penalty
40%

Total registered voters Race/ethnicity

48%

White non-Hispanic Latino African-American


Asian-American
Source: September 2011 Field Poll.

45%

42%

55%

37%

66%

24%

43%

38%

Field Research Corporation

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Table 18

California Voter Opinions About Allowing SameSex Couples to Marry by Race/Ethnicity and Age
Approve Disapprove
34%

Total registered voters


Race/ethnicity by age White non-Hispanic (total) Age 18 39 Age 40 64

59%

64%

30%

73%
69% 45%

21%
26% 45%

Age 65+ Ethnic voters (total) Age 18 39 Age 40 64


Age 65+*
Field Research Corporation

52% 65% 42% 41%


Source: February 2012 Field Poll. * Small sample base.

41% 32% 47% 52%

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