@NickJewell

VORP?!
• Value Over Replacement
Player - A baseball
'sabremetric' term applied to
hockey.
• A common way to evaluate
players across teams,
irrespective of position.
Building VORP
• Lack of 'deep stats' available for the EPIHL.
• Limited to GP, G, A, Pts and PIM (mostly).
• Best derived stat: Points-per-Game (PPG)
• PPG = Pts/GP. In effect, a measure of "average productivity" that's independent of the number
of games played.
• Split players into groups of Forwards, Defencemen and Goalkeepers.
• Calculate mean (average) PPG for Forwards and Defence separately. Goalies dealt with later
on... This average PPG is what an average 'replacement' player in the league produces.
• Divide each player's individual PPG by the mean for that player's group.
• This leads to the player's offensive VORP (oVORP) rating. An oVORP greater than 1.00
indicates this player is more offensively productive than the league average. An oVORP lower
than 1.00 indicates a player of less-than-average league value.
What oVORP is Not
• oVORP is "offensive" only - for now.
• VORP doesn't take into account defensive statistics (since none
are available in the EPIHL anyway). This will weight offensive D-
men above stay-at-home D-men.
• There are a lot of factors in hockey (face offs, defensive+/-, etc)
that aren't measurable from these basic stats. All these factors
are relevant in measuring the characteristics of a complete player.
• VORP has been hacked together for Goalkeepers using the very
limited stats available and is covered at the end of the deck. More
work is needed before it can be included as part of the main
VORP analysis but is presented here as a work in progress.
Exclusions
• For Forwards and Defencemen, any players with
fewer than 4 games played will be excluded from the
analysis.
• This represents about 20% of the season to date.
• If a player has changed teams, his season total will
be aggregated and presented towards his current
team only. For example, Cesky has transferred from
Telford to Basingstoke mid-season. His totals will
appear under the Bison's analysis.
Data Capture
• All data taken from eliteprospects.com before
9am on 12th November 2012.
Team by Team Analysis
• Each EPIHL team analysed
by oVORP
• Overall team value and
quality ratio provided.
• Team value is the sum of
oVORP for all players.
• Quality ratio is the number of
"value players" (ie over 1.00
oVORP) divided by "non-
value" players.
Basingstoke Bison
Forwards oVORP Defencemen oVORP
Greg Chambers 2.16
Greg Owen 1.91
Joe Greener 1.50
Douglas Sheppard 1.42
Joe Miller 1.42
Jaroslav Cesky 1.42
Joe Rand 1.17
Kurtz Reynolds 0.76
Alex Symonds 0.38
Carl Graham 0.19
Tony Redmond 0.25
Andrew Melachrino 0.17
Jacob Heron 0.09
Cameron Wynn 0.08
Zach Sullivan 0.00
Bison Scorecard
Team oVORP 15.95
Value Players 7
Non-Value Players 8
Squad Quality Ratio 0.88
Top 10 oVORP Players 0
Top 25 oVORP Players 2
Top 50 oVORP Players 7
Bracknell Bees
Forwards oVORP Defencemen oVORP
Marcel Petran 4.10
Lukas Smital 2.12
Jan Bendik 2.08
Shaun Thompson 1.97
Martin Masa 1.97
Sam Oakford 1.25
Robert Lamey 1.18
Grant Rounding 0.66
Matthew Foord 0.63
Scott Spearing 0.57
James Galazzi 0.55
Alan Lack 0.47
Lewis Turner 0.36
Andrew Munroe 0.18
Oliver Brönnimann 0.13
Ben Johnson 0.00
Excluded: Ryan Webb (F), Nick Mihinnick (F), Tom Fisher (F), Samuel Waller (D)
Bees Scorecard
Team oVORP 18.20
Value Players 7
Non-Value Players 9
Squad Quality Ratio 0.78
Top 10 oVORP Players 1
Top 25 oVORP Players 5
Top 50 oVORP Players 5
Guildford Flames
Forwards oVORP Defencemen oVORP
David Longstaff 3.11
Curtis Huppe 2.75
Jozef Kohut 2.26
Jez Lundin 1.89
David Savage 1.89
Branislav Kvetan 1.84
Paul Dixon 1.61
Rick Plant 1.58
Nathan Rempel 1.21
Ben Campbell 1.16
Andrew Hemmings 1.08
Milos Melicherik 0.81
Stuart Potts 0.75
Neil Liddiard 0.57
Ricky Skene 0.57
Andrew Sharp 0.25
Ben Edwards 0.14
Scott Greenfield 0.08
Chris Cooke 0.00
Excluded: Dean Holland (F)
Flames Scorecard
Team oVORP 23.54
Value Players 11
Non-Value Players 8
Squad Quality Ratio 1.38
Top 10 oVORP Players 3
Top 25 oVORP Players 5
Top 50 oVORP Players 8
Manchester Phoenix
Forwards oVORP Defencemen oVORP
Robert Schnabel 2.22
Michal Psurny 2.07
Tony Hand 2.07
Ondrej Pozivil 1.73
Richard Bentham 1.48
Joachim Flaten 1.42
Andrew McKinney 1.20
Scott McKenzie 0.87
James Archer 0.87
Ciaran Long 0.83
Luke Boothroyd 0.74
Thomas Duggan 0.59
Ben Wood 0.49
Jake Nurse 0.00 James Neil 0.00
Excluded: Liam Chong (F), Sean Day (F)
Phoenix Scorecard
Team oVORP 16.58
Value Players 7
Non-Value Players 8
Squad Quality Ratio 0.88
Top 10 oVORP Players 1
Top 25 oVORP Players 3
Top 50 oVORP Players 6
MK Lightning
Forwards oVORP Defencemen oVORP
Leigh Jamieson 1.62
Lukas Zatopek 1.51
Adam Calder 1.27
Adam Carr 1.25
Nick Poole 1.17
Michael Farn 1.13
Blaz Emersic 1.00
Nicky Chinn 0.67
Daniel Harris 0.64
Adam Brittle 0.58
Grant McPherson 0.58
Chris Wiggins 0.40
Ross Bowers 0.40
Lewis Christie 0.38
Ross Green 0.19
Excluded: Kamil Tvrdek (F), Connor Goode (F)
Lightning Scorecard
Team oVORP 12.80
Value Players 7
Non-Value Players 8
Squad Quality Ratio 0.88
Top 10 oVORP Players 0
Top 25 oVORP Players 0
Top 50 oVORP Players 2
Peterborough
Phantoms
Forwards oVORP Defencemen oVORP
James Hutchinson 2.08
Ondrej Lauko 1.91
Tom Carlon 1.75
Thomas Norton 1.70
James Ferrara 1.66
Jozef Sladok 1.61
Maris Ziedins 1.25
Luke Ferrara 1.17
Jeff Glowa 1.00
Robert Ferrara 0.94
William Weldom 0.33
Jordan Cownie 0.22
Nathan Pollard 0.20
Jamie Line 0.17
Lewis Hook 0.09
Alex Whyte 0.00 Joe Graham 0.00
Luke Barber 0.00
Declan Balmer 0.00
Excluded: Peter Burai (D)
Phantoms Scorecard
Team oVORP 16.08
Value Players 9
Non-Value Players 10
Squad Quality Ratio 0.90
Top 10 oVORP Players 0
Top 25 oVORP Players 2
Top 50 oVORP Players 6
Sheffield Steeldogs
Forwards oVORP Defencemen oVORP
Ben Morgan 2.81
Greg Wood 2.39
Pavel Gomeniuk 2.21
Derek Campbell 1.70
Steven Duncombe 1.50
Andre Payette 0.97
Dmitri Rodin 0.92
Edgars Bebris 0.88
Andrew Hirst 0.71
Stuart Brittle 0.44
Thomas Squires 0.33
Lloyd Gibson 0.28
Ashley Calvert 0.27
Lee Hayward 0.20
Craig Elliott 0.18
Shaun Wild 0.00 Jonathon Kirk 0.00
Lewis Bell 0.00
Excluded: Luke Smith (F), Thomas Wells (F)
Steeldogs Scorecard
Team oVORP 15.78
Value Players 5
Non-Value Players 13
Squad Quality Ratio 0.38
Top 10 oVORP Players 2
Top 25 oVORP Players 3
Top 50 oVORP Players 5
Slough Jets
Forwards oVORP Defencemen oVORP
Mindaugas Kieras 5.78
Darius Pliskauskas 1.95
Frantisek Bakrlik 1.85
Vyacheslav Koulikov 1.50
Daniel Davies 1.42
Tomas Valecko 1.38
Ladislav Harabin 1.07
Michael Wales 0.88
Josh Bruce 0.77
Aaron Connolly 0.71
Matt Towalski 0.62
Adam Greener 0.60
Alex Barker 0.53
Daniel Rose 0.00 Daniel Scott 0.00
Samuel Godfrey 0.00
Excluded: Terry Miles (F), Kane Todd (F)
Jets Scorecard
Team oVORP 19.07
Value Players 7
Non-Value Players 9
Squad Quality Ratio 0.78
Top 10 oVORP Players 1
Top 25 oVORP Players 3
Top 50 oVORP Players 5
Swindon Wildcats
Forwards oVORP Defencemen oVORP
Jonas Höög 2.66
Aaron Nell 2.41
Michal Kapicka 1.52
Shane Moore 1.43
Matias Perkkiö 1.42
Nicky Watt 1.23
Tomas Fojtik 1.07
Paul Swindlehurst 0.57
Jamie Hayes 0.44
Chris Jones 0.27
Sam Bullas 0.11
Loris Taylor 0.08
Floyd Taylor 0.00 Stephen Whitfield 0.00
Excluded: Ryan Aldridge (F)
Wildcats Scorecard
Team oVORP 18.64
Value Players 7
Non-Value Players 7
Squad Quality Ratio 1.00
Top 10 oVORP Players 2
Top 25 oVORP Players 2
Top 50 oVORP Players 5
Telford Tigers
Forwards oVORP Defencemen oVORP
Jaroslav Kruzik 1.61
Tomas Janak 1.34
Patrick Greene 1.18
James Preece 0.94
Tim Burrows 0.94
Elliott Knell 0.94
Ryan Selwood 0.64
Callum Bowley 0.51
Adam Taylor 0.42
Tom Watkins 0.27
Luke Brittle 0.24
Joe Henry 0.16
Thomas Soar 0.00 Marcus Maynard 0.00
Daniel Rose 0.00 Daniel Croft 0.00
Edward Eaton 0.00
Jordan Bannon 0.00
Tigers Scorecard
Team oVORP 9.20
Value Players 3
Non-Value Players 15
Squad Quality Ratio 0.20
Top 10 oVORP Players 0
Top 25 oVORP Players 0
Top 50 oVORP Players 1
Analysis
• How to read the VORP numbers: A player who gives a consistently
average performance in the league scores 1.00. This means David
Longstaff is worth 3.11 times the value of this average player.
• The most valuable team is Guildford at 23.54. The least is Telford at
9.20.
• The overall team value distribution is remarkably even - mean value of
16.58, std dev of 3.63.
• Several teams (Bracknell/Slough in particular) benefit from strong
offensive D-men.
• Many ex-Flames are not good value this season (Melachrino,
Brönnimann, Duggan, Chinn, Wiggins, etc)
Analysis II
• A Flames top line of Longstaff, Huppe and
Kohut would be the highest value possible for
the Flames (8.12 value - equivalent to almost
the entire Telford team!)
• An entire Flames defensive line (Liddiard/
Skene) is below value. Would a shakeup
help?
Pythagorean Win-Loss
• Using a formula originally applied to baseball
winning percentage - aims to predict a team's
success based on goals scored and
conceded.
• Teams who have expected percentages lower
than actually achieved are said to be "lucky"
whereas teams who are actually worse than
their predictions are said to be "unlucky"
Py W-L Analysis
• Guildford (-2 places) and Peterborough (-3
places) are the most unlucky teams for league
positions this year.
• Guildford (-2 places) is also the most unlucky
for Cup positions.
• Tough break.
Goaltending VORP
• We have two sets on non-additive stats generally available
(GAA and SV%)
• Spearman's rank correlation coefficient is 0.59 indicating a
strong positive correlation between these stats. Therefore
either can be chosen.
• gVORP seems more interesting and provides a bigger range
between players...important for our limited data set of goalies.
• Goalkeeper analysis excluded all goalies who've played one
or fewer games to help remove freak blowout results.
gVORP
GK gVORP
Stevie Lyle 3.00
Alexander Mettam 2.34
Gregg Rockman 1.97
Stephen Fone 1.92
Mark Lee 1.77
Damien King 1.70
James Flavell 1.57
Dean Skinns 1.54
Tom Annetts 1.48
Dmitri Zimozdra 1.41
Stephen Wall 1.34
Declan Ryan 1.29
Daniel Milton 1.23
Carl Ambler 1.14
Bradley Day 0.46
Graeme Bird 0.20
gVORP Analysis
• Using gVORP based on GAA, Stevie Lyle becomes the most valuable
player on the Bison squad, the best goalie in the league and the fourth
most valuable player in the league! Sounds about right?
• The variance of GAA is considerable. Bradley Day and Graeme Bird are
the only below-value goalies who meet the acceptance criteria - pretty
much due to a couple of stinky outings.
• Stephen Wall and Bradley Day have only two games apiece - it's really
only Bird who's currently low-value as a goalie in this league.
• Both Bracknell goalies are in the lower realms of value - would a new
netminder make the difference in a playoff run?
• Based on this gVORP, six goalies would be ranked either 1st, 2nd or 3rd
in their team's depth charts (including Mettam and Lyle at #1)
Feedback to @NickJewell on Twitter
Thank You!

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