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AFFIDAVIT

I,theundersignedChristopherWalterMonckton,commonlyknownasTheViscountMoncktonofBrenchley,Peer oftheRealm,ofRunhamsFarm,Harrietsham,Maidstone,ME171NJ,beingfirstdulysworn,doherebystateunder oathandunderpenaltyofperjurythatthefactsaretrue:

1.

Iamovertheageof18andamaresidentoftheUnitedKingdom.Theinformationhereinisbaseduponmyown personal knowledge. If called as a witness, I could testify competently thereto. I have a degree in Classical Architecture from Cambridge University. The course included instruction in mathematics. I am the Director of MoncktonEnterprisesLtd.,aconsultancycorporationwhich,interalia,specializesininvestigatingscientificfrauds atgovernmentlevel,onwhichIadvisedMargaretThatcherfrom19821986at10DowningStreetduringhertime as Prime Minister. I have experience in the use of certain mathematical techniques which allow rigorous assessmentofprobabilitiesincludingtheprobabilitythatadocumenthasbeenforged.Ihavepublishedpapersin thereviewedliteratureonclimatescienceandeconomicsandamanappointedexpertreviewerfortheforthcoming Fifth Assessment Report (2013) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. I was this years Nerenberg LecturerinMathematicsattheUniversityofWesternOntario,Canada.

2. I am asked to give expert testimony on the probability, taking into account the published results of a law enforcement investigation by the Cold Case Posse acting for the Sheriff of Maricopa County, Arizona, that the documentpurportingtobeadigitalphotographicimageofanoriginalpaperlongformHawaiianbirthcertificate for President Obama that was personally endorsed by him at a Press Conference on April 27, 2011, and was thereuponpostedontheWhiteHousewebsite,isgenuine.

3. IrelyonthefindingspublishedbyinvestigatorsactingattheinstanceoftheSheriffofMaricopaCounty,Arizona,in twopressconferences,givenon1Marchand17July2012respectively.Atthesecondpressconference,theSheriff said he was now certain that the White House document was a forgery. Based on the findings of the law enforcementinvestigation,IhaveconductedaprobabilityanalysistoestablishthelikelihoodthattheWhiteHouse documentisgenuine.

4. Whereadocumentcontainswhatappearto beirregularities,they may havearisenbyinadvertenceorbydesign. Probabilitytheoryassistsinevaluatingthelikelihoodthatalloftheirregularitieswereindeedinadvertent.

5.

Themethodisbasedononeoftheearliestandsimplestprinciplesinthetheoryofprobability,whicharosefromthe mathematicalstudyoftheoddsatgamesofchance.Asimpleheuristicwillillustratethemethod.Supposethattwo diceareriggedsothattheywillalwaysshowapairofidenticalnumberswhenthrown.Thentheoddsthatadouble six,forinstance, willoccurare1in6.Ontheother hand,ifthedicearenotriggedinany way,sothattheyland randomly, the chance of a double six occurring is just 1 in 36, for the face that lands uppermost on one dice is entirelyindependentofthefacethatlandsuppermostontheother,andtheprobabilitythatthefirstdiewilldisplay asixis1in6,andeachtimethatoccursthereisonlya1in6chancethattheotherdiewillalsodisplayasix.

6. In general, therefore, the probability that a series of independent events will occur is simply the product of the individual probabilities that each of the independent events in the series will occur. Thus, with two dice each independentlypossessinga1in6probabilitythatasixwillshow,theprobabilityofadoublesixis1in6times1in 6:i.e.,1in36.Withthreesuchdice,theprobabilityofatriplesixis1in6times1in6times1in6,or1in216and soon.Theprobabilitiesbecomerapidlysmallerwitheachadditionalindependentevent.

7.

Thesametechniquemaybeappliedtoassessingtheprobabilitythatasuspectdocumentisgenuine.Thetechnique isparticularlysuitableforthetestingofthosedocumentsinwhichtheirregularitiesaresovariedthatunlessthey arose by design as in the fabrication of a forgery they cannot be dependent upon one another. If the irregularitiesarosenaturallyorbyinadvertence,thentheyareverylikelytobetrulyindependentofoneanother, and their individual probabilities fall to be multiplied together to determine the probability that, overall, the irregularitiesoccurredinasingledocumentbyinadvertenceratherthanbydesign.

8. Thevalueoftakinganexplicitlymathematicalapproachtoweighingevidencesuggestiveofforgery particularly wherethecontextisinescapablypoliticalisthatthetestis,asfaraspossible,objective.Onceitisacceptedthat certainirregularitiesexistandthattheprobabilityofeachirregularityoccurringbymereinadvertenceisasstated, thentheprobabilitythatthedocumentisgenuinebecomesamatterofarithmetic.Ifanyindividualprobabilityis thoughtunsuitable,apreferredvaluemaybesubstitutedandthecalculationredone.Themethodandtheresults areexplicit,transparent,andindependentofanyexpertiseorprejudiceonthepartofthemathematician.Theymay beindependentlyreviewedbyanyothermathematician.

9. Thefirststepintheprobabilisticanalysisofadocument,then,istolisttheindividualirregularitiesfoundtherein andtoassignareasonableandlegitimateindividualprobabilitytoeachirregularity.Ihavehaddetaileddiscussions with the Sheriffs investigators and with some experts so as to form a view on the probabilities that each of the errorsthathavebeenidentifiedareinadvertent. 10. TheinvestigatorshavesaidduringtheirpressconferencesthatoneoftheirmostseriousconcernsisthattheWhite House document appears to have been fabricated piecemeal on a computer, inferentially by drawing together digitized data from several genuine birth certificates. Not the least of the reasons why the investigators have reached this conclusion is that the distribution of the electronic data between nine distinct layers is entirely uncharacteristicofapaperdocumentthathasbeenscannedtocreateasimple,digitizedphotographicimagethat may (0r may not) also have been processed either to sharpen the image using optical characterrecognition softwareortocompressthefilesizebyusingfilecompressionoroptimizationsoftware. 11. TheelectronicdatafileoftheWhiteHousedocument,whenopenedinAdobeIllustrator,canbeseparatedintonine separatedatalayersandoneclippingmaskpaththatgroupsthelayers.ForensicexpertsfortheColdCasePosse establishedthattheselayerswerenotanartefacteitherofoptimizationorofopticalcharacterrecognition.Inany event,statementsfromtheGovernorofHawaiiandfromtheWhiteHousePressOfficeestablishachainofcustody wherebynomentionwasmadeofanyalterationorprocessingofthephotocopiedimagesatanypoint.

12. TheelectronicimagewaspostedattheWhiteHousewebsiteintheformofaPortableDocumentFormat(.pdf)file at12.09pmon27April2011usingaprogrammecalledMacintoshPreview,whichisrecordedamongtheproperties of the data file as the application that created it. However, I am told that forensic experts have deduced that a different software suite, Adobe Photoshop, was used to fabricate or alter the electronic image then yet another program,AdobeIllustrator,wasusedtocompilethevariouslayersandexportthemasa.pdfthen,immediately beforepostingontheinternet,MacintoshPreviewwasusedinanunsuccessfulattempttoerasethedigitaltracesof theprevioususeofAdobePhotoshopandAdobeIllustrator,andtoreducethefilesize.

13. A key reason for this deduction is that Macintosh Preview will not generate layers in the optimization process, though it will maintain any preexisting layers generated by the user. For this reason, the investigators consider that the attributes of the layers in the White House document were fabricated before the file was optimized in Macintosh Preview. The presence of layers and their objectcode attributes implies that Adobe Photoshop and AdobeIllustratorweresignificantcontributorstoandevidenceofthefabricationoftheelectronicimage,whichwas notderivedfromaphotocopy.However,forthesakeofcautionIhavetakennoaccountofthisirregularity.

14. Nogenuineelectronicdocumentimagescanned,photocopied,orphotographedfromapaperbirthcertificateina boundvolumewithoutfurtherprocessingbywayofopticalcharacterrecognition,filecompression,oroptimization wouldbeatalllikelytocontainmorethanonelayer.Electronicimagesofscanned,photocopied,orphotographed documentstypicallyconsistofasingledatalayer.YettheWhiteHousedocumentcontainsnotonlyasinglelayerof 8bit quality but also eight separate layers each of 1bit quality, not one of them black. The meaning of 1bit qualityisthateachdotofcoloredlightthatcomprisesthephotographicimage(apictureelement,orpixel),is representedintheelectronicdatafilebyasinglebinarydigit(orbit).Abitmayhavetheintegervalue0or1,and isrepresentedinanyelectroniccircuitbyaswitchwhere0representsoffand1representson.

15. The meaning of 8bit quality is that each pixel is represented by a group of eight bits (called a byte), representingvaluesfrom00000000,forzero,to11111111,for255.Thuseachpixelisdigitallyrepresentedbyan integergivingadifferentcolorvaluefrom0to255.Eacheightbitbyteinacolorlayerrepresentsadistincthue. ClustersofpixelsofvarioushuesallowmillionsofdistinctcolorstobedisplayedonacolorTVmonitor. 16. No optimization software generates any nonblack layers of 1bit quality, yet all of the 1bitquality layers in the White House document are nonblack. No such software generates more than one layer of 1bit quality, yet the WhiteHousedocumenthaseightsuchlayers.Nosuchsoftwaregeneratesnoblacklayerof1bitquality,yetnoneof theeight1bitqualitylayersintheWhiteHouselayerisblack.Nosuchsoftwaregeneratesonlyonecolorlayer,yet the White House document has a single color layer. No such software generates fewer than 50150 layers for an imageascomplexastheWhiteHousedocument,yetthatdocumentpossessesonlyninelayers.

17. Multiplelayersof1bitqualityeachrepresentingadistinctcolorotherthanblackcanonlybecreatedbyanoperator deliberately.Ifthedocumenthadacquiredmultiplelayersasaresultofoptimization,itwouldpossessonlyone1 bitlayer,representingallpixelsthatscanasblack.Thislayerisakintotheedgesofthepiecesofajigsawpuzzle.All of the nonblack layers in standard optimization software would normally be of 8bit quality. Each 8bit color layer represents a single colored region entirely bounded by black pixels. Each layer, therefore, is not really a layeratall:instead,itrepresentsthecoloredpictureonasinglepuzzlepieceboundedbyblackedges.Ineffect, thepuzzlepiecesformajigsawpuzzle.Whenassembled,theycomprisetheentireimage.

18. Any document that possesses multiple layers after automated optimization will possess only one layer of 1bit qualitywithablackcolourvalue.Theremaininglayerswillbeof8bitqualitytorepresenttheremainingcolours withintheimageatvariouslocationswithinthedocument.Nosuchdocumentwouldpossessmerelythesingle8 bit colour layer that is present in the website copy of the birth certificate. In the data file for the White House document, the single 8bit color layer represents the entire greenish basketweave pattern of the readily obtainablesecuritypaperonwhichtheblackdataweresuperimposed.

19. Yetagenuinelycreateddocumentthatpossessedlayersasaresultofalegitimate,automatedoptimizationprocess would not have the background isolated on one 8bit color layer: instead, the electronic representation of the basketweavepatterninanimageascomplexasalongformbirthcertificatewouldnormallybedistributedamong asmanyas50200separatejigsawpiecelayerseachboundedbyablackpartoftheimage.Theinvestigatorshave toldmetheyregardtheexistenceofthesingle8bitcolorlayerrepresentingtheentirebasketweavesubstrateas compellingevidencethatthedatastructureofthedocumentindicatesthatitwasfabricatedlayerbylayer,andthat itwasnotgeneratedbyanyoptimizationprogram.

20. Whereaneventiscertainnottooccur,itsprobabilityis0.Whereitisunlikelytooccur,itsprobabilityislessthan1 in2.Whereitislikelytooccur,itsprobabilityisgreaterthan1in2.Whereitiscertaintooccur,itsprobabilityis1. Standing the gravity of the discrepancies between the distribution of layers in the image on the White House website and in an image created after processing by a normal optimization program, it would be legitimate to assign small probabilities (somewhat close to 0) at least to each of the following discrepancies: Multiple distinct layersof1bitquality,1in10noneofthelayersof1bitqualityrepresentsblack,1in10asinglecolorlayerof8bit quality represents the entire basketweave paper, 1 in 10. If each of these discrepancies were independent of the others,thentheabnormalitiesinthedistributionofdataamongthelayersthatareevidentwouldhaveacombined probabilityof1000:1againsttheirhavingoccurredinthesamedocumentbyinadvertence.

21. It is arguably more appropriate to regard these three probabilities as connected. It is possible that an untypical optimization program not known to the investigators was used. However, the investigators reviewed some 600 distinctoptimizationprogramsfortheWindowsoperatingsystemandthesame600programsfortheMacintosh operating system, and did not find a single program that created a layering structure in any way consistent with thatwhichtheWhiteHousedocumentexhibits.Sinceitisdifficulttodemonstratethatnooptimization program consistentwiththeobservedlayeringstructureexists,Ihavearbitrarilyassumedthattensuchprogramsexist,so thattheprobabilitythatoneoftheseprogramswasusedisapproximately1in60.

22. The date when the copy was certified by the registrar, and the registrars stamp adjacent to it, each appear independently on separate layers of the White House document. Furthermore, these distinct layers contain no otherdataofanykind.Noscanofanoriginaldocumentcouldpossiblyproducesuchseparationofdiscreteitems intodistinctlayers.Theforensicexpertstellmetheyregardthisasdefinitiveevidencethatcontrarytothechain ofcustody account from official sources the document was not photocopied but fabricated piecemeal. No legitimatedocumentprocesswouldresultinthisseparationofinformationintoindependentlayers.

23. ItwouldhavebeensimpletoplaceagenuinephotocopyfromHawaiiintoascanner,capturetheelectronicimage, and then print from it the copies to be distributed to reporters at the White House press conference of April 27, 2011,uploadingtheinnocentseemingelectronicimagefromthephotocopieddocumentandconcealingentirelythe rareifnotimpossiblelayeringanomaliesconsideredhere.Thepresenceoftheseanomaliesestablishesthatthe simplerroutewasnotfollowed,asitwouldhavebeeniftheoriginaldocumenthadbeengenuine,andthatinstead theimagewaspiecedtogetherelectronicallyfromseveralsources. 24. Thetwoanomalouslylayeredstamps,ifinadvertent,wouldnotonlybegenuinelyindependentofoneanotherbut sorareastobeforallpracticalpurposesimpossible.Nevertheless,forcautionIaccordthemaprobabilityof1in 100 each, or 1 in 10,000 together. These irregularities, taken with the independent 1 in 60 probability of the layeringirregularity,yieldfromtheanalysisofelectronicirregularitiesaloneaprobabilityofonly1in600,000that theWhiteHousedocumentisgenuine.

25. There are further anomalies in the presentation of the apparently mechanicallytyped entries on the longform certificateoflivebirth.Manualtypewriterswereinusein1961.Allmechanicaltypewriterstheninusehavefixed spacing: all letters, capital or lowercase, occupy the same width. A common width was the Elite escapement (typically6points wide, i.e.12characterstothe inch horizontallyand12or 24 pointslinespacing, i.e.6single spaced or 3 doublespaced lines to the inch vertically). Yet the White House document is poorly aligned both horizontallyandvertically.Todemonstratehowthealignmentsshouldhaveappearedonagenuineform,Iinvited forensicspecialiststouseamechanicaltypewritertoenterdataintoablankspecimenform.Theresultantimage, overlaidwitharedgridtoshowtheregularityoflinespacingandletterspacingcomparedwiththeirregularitiesin theWhiteHousedocument,ismarkedMofB1,annexedandsignedasrelativehereto. 26. The experiment demonstrates how orderly the alignment of the typewritten margins, letters, words, and lines of textwouldhavebeeniftheoriginalbirthcertificatehadbeencreated,likeothersinthepublicdomain,byinserting apreprintedformintoamanualtypewriter,aligningthecarriageattheappropriatestartingpointattopleft,and thenfillingintheformlinebyline.Bycontrast,theWhiteHousedocumentshowshowunnaturallyirregularthe letter,wordandlinespacingsandalignmentsare.

27. IntheWhiteHousedocument,thelinespacingofthetypewrittenentriesvariesby 1to3points(1/72to1/24in.) above or below the usual 24point (1/3 in.) doublespacing. That variability would not occur if the original documenthadbeengenuinelytypewrittenratherthanelectronicallyfabricated.TheHawaiianlongformcertificate, likemostformsofitsdaythatwereintendedfortypewriters,wasdesignedpreciselytoallowdoublespacedentries, sothatoncethefirstlineenteredwascorrectlyregisteredallotherlinesoftypewouldautomaticallyfallintheright placewithinthesuccessiveformlinesasthecarriagereturnleveradvancedthepaperpasttheribbon. 28. Therollersinamanualtypewriterholdthepaperfirmlyenoughagainsttheplatentoavoidslippage.Thenumerous visible irregularities in the line spacing of Mr Obamas copy birth certificate is very considerably beyond what wouldbeexpected,suggestingthatthetypeddataintheformwereplacedbyhand,oreyeballed.

29. TheleftwardfootoftheletterMinMaleis,asitshouldbe,belowtherightwardfoot,because,astheformlines above and below it show, the pageimage curves downward near the binding. By contrast, the word Kapiolani, unlikethewordMaleaboveit,doesnotcurvedownwardtotheleftasitshouldhavedoneiftheimagehadbeen scannedfromaboundvolume,followingthecurvatureoftheformlinesaboveandbelowit.

30. ThewordBARACKisnotalignedeithertothecurvatureoftheprintedformlinesoratitsrighthandendto thewordsHUSSEINandOBAMAlaterintheline.Also,theyear1961isbelowtheadjacentmonthandday.

31. Variationsnotonlylinespacingbutalsoinletterspacingareevidentthroughoutthetypewrittenformentries.One consequence is that the three flush left lines on the document are not vertically aligned with one another, as all flushleftentriesontheforensicexpertsdocumentare.Forinstance,thewholewordMaleisoffsetbyalmosthalf acharactertotheleftcomparedwiththewordKapiolanitwoformlinesbelowit,indicatingthatoneortheother word(orboth)mayhavebeenimportedelectronicallyfromanotherformandinserted.Inagenuinedocument,all thetypewrittenlettersandwordsontheformshouldnormallyhavehadthesameverticalalignment.

32. Thecommaafterthefigure4isoffsettoomuchtotheright,indicatingthatitmaynothavebeentypedbutmay insteadhavebeenpastedinpositionelectronicallyduringthecompositionoftheimage.

33. Manyofthewordstowardstherighthandsideoftheformarealignedhorizontallyalmosthalfacharacterfarther totherightthanthe wordsonthelefthandside. Thisanomalydefinitivelydemonstratesthatthedocumentwas nottypedlinebylinefromlefttoright.Itisunlikelythataclerkenteringdataintotheformwouldhavefilledinthe dataonthelefthandsidefirstandwouldthenhaveremovedandreinsertedtheforminsuchawayastocauseso substantialamisalignmentwhentherighthandhalfoftheformwascompleted.

34. Thetypistwouldnormallyhaveinsertedtheformintothetypewriter,alignedit,closedtherollersovertheplatento hold the form firmly in alignment, and then typed the lines successively from left to right. If so, the systemic rightwardshiftthatisevidentinthelettersandwordsappearingtowardstherighthandsidethroughouttheform could not have occurred. However, it is possible that this discrepancy arose because of parallax in the microfilm camerathatwasusedtotakedifferentportionsofthefabricatedlongformbirthcertificatefromotherdocuments.

35. Thevariableletterspacingsuggeststhatmanyofthetypewrittenletterswereplacedbyhand,andnottypedona typewriter. For instance, the lowercase a appears several times on the form more closely to the right than normal,butthecapitalAdoesnot.Onamechanicaltypewriter,thecapitalletteriscarriedonthesamearmasthe lowercaseletter,sothatifthedocumenthadgenuinelybeentypewritteneithertheAsandaswouldhavebeen correctlyspacedortheywouldallhavebeenbiasedeitherleftwardorrightward.

36. Word spacing is also variable in a fashion inconsistent with typewriting. Whole words are misaligned by 1 to 3 points(1/72to1/24in.,oronesixthtoonehalfofacharacter),suggestingthewordswereindividuallypastedin asthedocumentwasfabricatedpiecemeal.Yet,forcaution,Ihavetakennoaccountofwordspacingirregularities.

37. Thoughitwouldhavebeenlegitimatetoassignindividualprobabilitiestoeachofthetypewriteranomaliestowhich I have referred, for by their nature they would have been independent of one another if they were inadvertent, I havecautiouslyassignedasingleprobabilityof1in10toalloftheanomalouslinespacingstakentogetherasone irregularity,andaseparatesingleprobabilityof1in20totheanomalousletterspacings,likewisetakentogetheras one irregularity. Distinct probabilities for vertical and horizontal anomalies are appropriate because a typist creatingagenuinedocumentwouldhavehadtotaketwodifferentactionstocreatebothanomalies.Thus,basedon themisalignmentsinthetypingalone,theprobabilitythattheWhiteHousedocumentisgenuineis1in200.

38. In addition to the electronic layering anomalies and the anomalies in the vertical and horizontal spacings in the typewrittenentriesontheform,otherunexpectedfeaturessuggestingforgeryareevident.Individualprobabilities willbeassignedtothemostseriousofthesefurtheranomalies.

39. AhaloofwhitespaceisevidentaroundtheblackportionsoftheWhiteHousedocument.TheuseofUnsharpMask afeatureintheAdobePhotoshopsoftwaresuitethatalsoappearstoamorelimitedextentinAdobeIllustrator, and whose purpose is to clean and sharpen the image is one of many possible causes of the problematic halo effect.However,noneofthesecausesapplywhereanoriginaldocumentiscopiedontoaphotocopier,norwhere thatphotocopyisinturnphotocopied.

40. TheGovernorofHawaiihassaidtheoriginaldocumentwascopiedandgiventoMrObamasattorneys.TheWhite HousePressOfficehas saidthecopy birthcertificatesitcirculatedonApril 27, 2011,weretakenfromthe copies receivedfromHawaiithepreviousafternoon.Atneitherendwasanythingdonethatcouldhavecausedawhitehalo aroundthetypewrittenentriesontheform.Theexistenceofthewhitehaloeffect,illustratedinanimagemarked MofB2,annexedandsignedasrelativehereto,accordinglyappearscontrarytothecourseofeventsdescribedby MrAbercrombieandtheWhiteHousePressOffice,whichdonotmentionanyprocessingoralterationoftheimage thatcouldhavecaused.Ihaveassignedaprobabilityof1in10toaninadvertentoccurrenceofthewhitehalo.

41. Thewebsitecopyofthebirthcertificateexhibitsnochromaticaberrationtherefractionoflightwhenthelensofa scanner or camera comes across contrasts between colours (such as text against background). According to the investigators, this phenomenon arises from established physics. The aberration displays as a blue tint to the top and left edges of any black text character, and a reddish tint to the right and bottom edges. It can be seen in a genuinedocumentiftheviewerzoomsincloselytoatextareaforobservation,butitisabsentin theWhiteHouse document,thoughitispresentintheprintedcopiesofthatimagethatweregiventomembersoftheWhiteHouse press corps, indicating that the fabricated electronic file was printed out and then photocopied, creating the expectedchromaticaberration,whichisillustratedintheimagemarkedMofB3,annexedandsignedasrelative hereto. Accordingly, the account of events given by the Governor of Hawaii and the White House Press Office cannot be correct. Since forensic specialists have told me that the absence of chromatic aberration is definitive evidence that that version could not have been photocopied, scanned or photographed from a paper birth certificate,Ihavecautiouslyassignedalowprobabilityof1in100,ratherthanthemorerealisticzeroprobability,to theactuallyimpossibleinadvertentabsenceofchromaticaberrationintheWhiteHousedocument.

42. Afurtheranomalyisthatnophotocopied,scannedorphotographeddocumentwouldhaveincorporatedaclipping mask that had the effect of truncating the display of certain data forming part of the document image. Yet the White House document has a clipping mask path that conceals the safety paper pattern within the margins. The investigators have told me this can only occur by deliberate manipulation and cannot result from any legitimate processing.Automatedprocessingsuchasoptimizationcanproduceaclippingmask,butagenuinemaskwillonly definethesizeofthelayersandwillneverpreventdisplayofdataorparts oftheimage.Thesecuritypaperinthe WhiteHousedocumentcontainsawhitemarginthatconcealsnotonlypartofthepatternofthesecuritypaperbut also some data coding numbers in pencil that are relevant to determining whether that document is forged. A genuineelectronicimageofthepatternonsecuritypaperwouldbleedtotheedgeofthedocument.However,Ihave takennoaccountofthisirregularity,forthosecreatingagenuinefilemayhavewishedtotrimthesecuritypaperto minimizethedatafilesize.

43. MrObamasshortformbirthcertificate,whenfirstpublishedin2008,haditscertificatenumberblackedout.Itis not easy to discern any legitimate reason why this should have been done. Indeed, a certificate number appears openlyonMrObamaslongformbirthcertificate.However,thenumberisoutofsequence,anditispossiblethat the original blackingout of the number on the shortform certificate was an attempt to conceal this irregularity. The certificate appears to be stamped as having been registered on Tuesday, August 8, 1961, on which date the number10641wasassignedtoit.However,theVitalStatisticsfor1961issuedbytheUSDepartmentofHealth& HumanServicesshowthat17,578birthsoccurredthatyearinHawaii:anaverageof48birthsperday.Therefore, MrObamascertificateshouldhavebeenabout3x48=144numberslessthanthenumbersissuedtotwogirls,the Nordyke twins, whose certificates were registered three days later, on Friday, August 11, as 10637 and 10638. It shouldcertainlynothavehadanumbergreaterthantheirs.Anautomatedsequentialnumberingstampwasused, and batches of birth certificates were collected monthly, ordered by date and time of birth and then sequentially numberstamped in a special room by a single clerk trained for the purpose, precisely to minimize numbering errors.However,forcautionIhaveassumedthat1numberin25mightinadvertentlybeoutofsequence.

44. ThebirthdateofMrObamasallegedfatheristwoyearsout.Itnotimpossiblethatthechildsmotherdidnotknow hisfathersdateofbirth,orthatthedatewasincorrectlyentered.Ihaveassigneda1in40probabilitytothisevent.

45. TheallegedfathersraceisdescribedasAfricansome28yearsbeforethetermAfricanorAfricanAmerican firstcameintogeneralusage.In1961,writtenrulesforbadetheuseofsuchgeneralizedracialdescriptors,theterm Africanbeingspecificallybarred.MsVernaK.Lee,theregistrarasimulacrumofwhosesignatureappearsonthe WhiteHousedocument,drewtheinvestigatorsattentiontothelistofcodingsthatwereusedforstatisticalreturns totheFederalGovernment:1White2Negro3 Indian(includesAleutsandEskimos)4 Chinese5Japanese6 Hawaiian (includes partHawaiian) 7 Other Nonwhite Unknown or not stated(Race of parents only). The word Africanisnotlisted.Ihaveassigneda1in25probabilitytotheoccurrenceoftheexplicitlyprohibitedandthen uncommonuseofthewordAfricantodescribetheallegedfathersrace.

46. Coding numbers added to the form in pencil adjacent to various of the typed data entries on the form are incompatiblewiththedatathathadbeenentered.Box9ontheform,RaceofFather,hasAfricantypedinit.Yet thecodingis9,whichstandsforUnknownornotstated.Likewise,Box12b,KindofBusinessorIndustry,has University typed in it, but is also assigned the emptybox code 9. Since these two events may have been connectedeveniftheywereinadvertent,andbearinginmindMs.Leesstatementtoinvestigatorstotheeffectthat mistakeswerenotmadeonherwatch,Ihaveassignedasingle1in25probabilitytotheseeventstakenasone.

47. TherearemanyfurtherirregularitiesintheWhiteHousedocument,butIhavenotassignedprobabilitiestothem. Had I done so, the probability that the document is genuine would have been still smaller than it is. Those irregularitiestowhichIhaveassignedprobabilitiesareasfollows:

Independentevent Probability Multiplelayersof1bitquality) No1bitqualitylayerrepresentsblack) 1in60(combined) One8bitqualitycolorlayer) Registrarssignaturestamponitsownlayer Registrarsdatestamponitsownlayer Linespacingirregularities Letterspacingirregularities Whitehaloeffectaroundblacktext Chromaticaberrationabsent Certificatenumberoutofsequence Fathersbirthdatetwoyearsout UseofAfricanagainstwrittenrules MiscodingofFederalstatisticaldata Probabilitythatallerrorswereinadvertent

1in100(actuallyimpossible) 1in100(actuallyimpossible) 1in10 1in20 1in10 1in100(actuallyimpossible) 1in25 1in40 1in25 1in25 1 in75quadrillion

48. As the table shows, the probability that the White House document is genuine (in that each of the irregularities identified by the investigators occurred by inadvertence), is the product of the individual probabilities that the mutuallyindependentirregularitieswereaccidental:thatis,1in75,000,000,000,000,000. 49. Sincethereare13distinctirregularitiestowhichprobabilitiesbelowunityareassigned,evenifperimpossibilethe probabilitiesthateachirregularityevidentintheWhiteHousedocumentwaspresentbyaccidentwereasgreatas1 in 2, the probability that the document might naturally exhibit all 13 irregularities at once and is accordingly genuine would still be as small as 1 in 2 13, or less than 1 in 8000. This demonstrates a relevant general result in probabilitytheory:if manyindependent irregularitiesevenwithsubstantialindividualprobabilitiescometolight duringforensicexaminationofasuspectdocument,theprobabilitythatthedocumentisgenuinemustbesmall.

50. Likewise,evenwherethereareasfewastwodefectsinaforgeddocument,eachwithalowprobabilityofinnocent occurrence,theprobabilitythatthedocumentisgenuinemustbesmall.Forinstance,giventhattheisolationnot onlyoftheelectronicdatarepresentingtheregistrarssignaturestampbutalsoofthedatarepresentinghisdate stampondistinctdatalayersareoccurrencesthatforensicspecialistsintheexaminationofelectronicdocuments considercouldnotpossiblyhaveoccurrednaturally, ifthe probabilityof each irregularity istakenas beingsmall (say, 1 in 100 for each of the two irregularities, though the probabilities are likely to be very less than this), the probabilitythatthetwodefectsbothoccurredbyinadvertenceandthatthusthedocumentisgenuineis1in10,000.

51. Itfollowsthatifasheretherearemultipleirregularitiesinadocument,mostofwhichpossesslowprobabilities ofinnocentoccurrence,theprobabilitythatthedocumentisgenuinemustbevanishinglysmallInmyexperience,I haveneverfoundadocumentwhich,whenthisprobabilistictechniqueisapplied,isdeterminedtobesoverynearly certaintobeaforgeryastheWhiteHousedocument.

52. One might also legitimately assign probabilities no greater than 1 in 100 to each of three irregularities in other identification documents pertaining to Mr Obama. First, there are numerous irregularities in the shortform abstractofhisbirthrecordpublishedintherunuptohis2008candidacy,includinganinconsistencybetweenthe textoftheabstractandtheformofwordsinuseatthetimewhenitwas,onitsface,issued.Secondly,theselective servicerecordsignedbyhimcarriesatwodigityearstampcontrarytowrittenrulesissuedbytheDepartmentof Defensespecifyingafourdigitstamp,which,asfarastheinvestigatorscoulddiscover,wasinvariablyusedonall other selectiveservice registration records at that time. Thirdly, his social security number carries a threedigit Connecticut prefix even though he had never lived there and all adjacent social security numbers with the same threedigit prefix that the investigators could trace were issued to residents of Connecticut. Taking these three additionalirregularities together withthe13irregularities intheWhiteHouse document,theprobability thatMr Obamasidentitydocumentationistruefallsfrom1in75quadrillionto1in75sextillion. 53. Evenifeachofthe16irregularitieswereassignedaprobabilitynolessthan1in2,implyingthateachirregularityis atleastaslikelyasnottooccurinagenuinedocument,theprobabilitythatthedocumentationisgenuinewouldbe 1in216,orbelow1in65,000.Further,inthisanalysisIhavecautiouslyleftoutofaccountseveralirregularities such as the indication that Mr Obamas social security number fails the official online everify check each of whichoughttobeassignedprobabilitiesnogreaterthan1in2,reducingtheprobabilityofgenuinenessstillfurther. Whicheverwaytheanalysisisdone,thatprobabilitycannotbeotherthanvanishinglysmall.

54. InthisanalysisIhaverelieduponthepublishedresultsoftheColdCasePossesinvestigation.Totheextentthat the investigators results are reliable and robust, and to the extent that the probabilities I have assigned to each individual irregularity that the investigators have identified are considered reasonable, my conclusion that the probabilitythattheWhiteHousedocumentisgenuineisvanishinglydifferentfromzeronecessarilyfollows.Evenif theprobabilitiesIhavechosenweretobeconsideredexcessivelylow,thefactthattherearesomanyindependent irregularities, even if absurdly high probabilities such as 1 in 2 were assigned to each irregularity, would be sufficienttodemonstratebeyondreasonabledoubtthattheWhiteHousedocumentisaforgery.

55. TheimagesmarkedMofB1,MofB2,andMofB3,annexedandsignedasexhibitsrelativehereto,arethe imagesreferredtoherein.


ExecutedthisSeventhdayofNovember,2012,inLondon,England

_________________________________ViscountMoncktonofBrenchley
SworntoandsubscribedbeforemethisSeventhdayofNovember,2012

_________________________________________________Solicitor 8

MofB1

Upperpanel:Aregularlylinespacedandletterspacedspecimentypewrittenformcreatedbyforensicspecialists. Lowerpanel:IrregularitiesofbothlinespacingandcharacterspacingareevidentontheWhiteHousedocument. Horizontalredrulesindicatedoublespacedlinesalignedtothefirstandlasttypedlinesoneachform.Thevertical bluerulesoccureveryfivecharacterspaces,alignedtotheKofKapiolani&piofHospitalusinganaccurate architecturalgeometryprogram.Inthelowerpanel,linescontainingthewordHonoluluarevisiblymisaligned: theredrulesstrikethroughthe text ratherthanunderlining it.Characterspacingtothe rightoftheform,where bluerulespassthroughthecentersofcharactersratherthanbetweenthem,isalsomisalignedwiththattotheleft.

MofB2

ThisistheillustrationoftheunnaturalwhitehaloeffectaroundtheblackportionsoftheimageontheWhiteHouse website.ThetopleftimageisenlargedfromtheWhiteHousedocument.Inthetoprightimage,thehalohasbeen removedtoshowhowagenuinedocumentshouldhaveappeared.Thelowerimageshavebeenartificiallydarkened toshowthehalostillmoreclearly.Thepresenceofthehaloeffectisanindicationthatthedocumentmaybeforged.

MofB3

Thisisanimage,withbluetintedandredtintedchromaticaberration,ofpartofthestampedsignatureofDr.Alvin OnakathatappearsonthecopyoftheWhiteHousedocumentthatwasgiventomembersof thePressCorpsApril 27, 2011. Chromatic aberration should also appear, but does not appear, on the electronic version posted at the WhiteHousewebsite.ItsabsenceisacompellingindicationthattheWhiteHousedocumentmaybeforged.

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