Monthly Employment Report

for October 2012
On a seasonally adjusted basis, preliminary estimates from the Federal Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) indicate Washington added 6,700 jobs from September 2012 to October 2012. BLS estimates the private sector added 9,600 jobs over the month and the public sector lost 2,900 jobs. Washington’s preliminary seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for October 2012 fell to 8.2 percent. The estimated September 2012 unemployment rate of 8.5 percent was unchanged. The October 2011 unemployment rate was 8.9 percent. On a nonseasonally adjusted basis, BLS estimates from October 2011 to October 2012 show a total job gain of 54,900 for the state. Over the year, the private sector added an estimated 57,000 jobs, while the public sector lost an estimated 2,100 jobs. BLS estimates of monthly job gains and losses are based on a survey of businesses. Preliminary estimates are subject to revision. September 2012 jobs revisions: September’s preliminary estimated gain of 1,200 jobs was revised to a gain of 6,600 jobs. For more information, call Joe Elling at 360-407-4531.

Employment estimates in this report are generated by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Due to changes in the method BLS uses to produce these data, we expect increased volatility in the estimates. BLS data in this report are rounded to the nearest 100.

Resident civilian labor force and unemployment, seasonally adjusted
The resident civilian labor force is the total number of people in the workforce, employed and unemployed, ages 16 and up. The number of unemployed is the estimated number of people who currently do not have a job, are available for work and have actively looked for work in the last four weeks. The unemployment rate is the ratio of the estimated number of unemployed divided by the civilian labor force.
October September 2012 2012 (Preliminary) (Revised) 7.9% 8.2% 3,483,700 285,800 7.3% 1,504,900 109,600 7.8% 8.5% 3,495,700 296,900 7.6% 1,511,600 114,400 October September 2011 2011 (Revised) (Revised) 8.9% 8.9% 3,487,100 309,900 8.0% 1,500,000 120,400 9.0% 9.0% 3,483,500 315,100 8.2% 1,497,700 122,700

United States Unemployment rate Seasonally adjusted Washington Unemployment rate Resident labor force Unemployed Seattle/Bellevue/Everett Unemployment rate Resident labor force Unemployed

Washington State Employment Security Department
Labor Market and Economic Analysis October 2012

Unemployment, seasonally adjusted
The BLS estimates Washington’s preliminary seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for October 2012 was 8.2 percent. The preliminary September unemployment rate of 8.5 percent was unchanged. According to BLS estimates, the number of jobless people who were actively seeking work fell by 11,100 in October compared to September. At the same time, the number of employed workers fell by an estimated 900. Overall, this amounted to a drop of 12,000 people in the labor force. The preliminary October 2012 unemployment rate is 0.7 percentage points below the October 2011 rate of 8.9 percent.

U.S., Washington and Seattle unemployment rates, seasonally adjusted October 2007 through October 2012 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
11% 10%
Unemployment rate

9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3%
Oct-07 Apr-08 Oct-08 Apr-09 Oct-09

Washington
Apr-10 Oct-10 Apr-11

U.S.
Oct-11

Seattle
Apr-12
Jul-12

October 2012 preliminary unemployment rates:

U.S. (preliminary) 7.9% Washington (preliminary) 8.2% Seattle area (preliminary) 7.3%

Employment change and moving average, seasonally adjusted
Based on BLS estimates, Washington state gained 6,700 jobs from September 2012 to October 2012. Recent employment change August 2012: down 4,900 jobs (revised)
Change in employment

Monthly employment change and three-month moving average, seasonally adjusted Washington state, October 2010 through October 2012 Source: Employment Security Dept./LMEA; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
15,000 12,000 9,000 6,000 3,000 0 -3,000 -6,000 Apr-11 Jan-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Oct-10 Jul-11 Oct-11 Oct-12 Monthly change 3-month average

September 2012: up 6,600 jobs (revised) October 2012: up 6,700 jobs (preliminary)

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Monthly Employment Report for October 2012

Oct-12

Employment and the unemployment since the start of the recession, seasonally adjusted
February 2008 (start of recent employment recession in Washington) Nonfarm employment: 2,976,500 Unemployment rate: 4.6% February 2010 (end of recent employment recession in Washington) Nonfarm employment: 2,770,600 Unemployment rate: 10.2% October 2012 (preliminary) Nonfarm employment: 2,894,600 Unemployment rate: 8.2%

Nonfarm employment and unemployment since the start of the recession, seasonally adjusted Washington state, January 2008 through October 2012 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
3,000,000 2,950,000
Nonfarm employment

12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% Nonfarm employment Unemployment rate 0%
Unemployment rate

2,900,000 2,850,000 2,800,000 2,750,000 2,700,000 2,650,000 2,600,000

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Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12

Monthly Employment Report for October 2012

Industry employment in Washington, seasonally adjusted
One-month employment change by industry Based on a BLS survey of businesses, Washington gained an estimated 6,700 jobs, net, over the month, on a seasonally adjusted basis: • Overall, nine industries expanded in October and four contracted. • Private-sector employment is estimated to have increased by 9,600, while government employment fell by 2,900. • Retail trade employment rose by 3,300. The biggest increase was in food and beverage stores, up 900 jobs. Employment among motor vehicle and parts dealers, clothing and accessory stores and general merchandise stores each showed gains of 600. • Professional and business services employment was up by 1,900. • The number of people employed in the financial activities sector rose by 1,800. • Led by a gain of 1,000 among specialty-trade contractors, construction employment increased by 1,400. • Employment in durable goods manufacturing increased by 1,000 with 500 of the gain in aerospace product and parts manufacturing. Nondurable goods manufacturing rose by 400.

Estimated one-month employment change by industry, seasonally adjusted Washington state, September 2012 to October 2012 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Total nonfarm Retail trade Professional and business services Financial activities Construction Manufacturing Education and health services Transportation, warehousing and utilities Information Other services Mining and logging Wholesale trade Leisure and hospitality Government 6,700 3,300 1,900 1,800 1,400 1,400 1,100 600 300 100 -100 -500 -1,700 -2,900

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Monthly Employment Report for October 2012

Industry employment in Washington, not seasonally adjusted
Year-over-year change by industry Based on a BLS survey of businesses, Washington added an estimated 54,900 jobs over the year. This marked a gain of 1.9 percent. • Overall, nine sectors grew and two contracted. • Private-sector employment rose 2.5 percent, up an estimated 57,000 jobs. • Public-sector employment decreased 0.4 percent, a loss of 2,100 jobs. • Manufacturing employment is estimated to have grown by 12,600, 4.6 percent, from October 2011 to October 2012. Durable goods manufacturers added 11,000 jobs with 7,100 of the increase in aerospace product and parts manufacturing. Nondurable goods manufacturers added 1,600 jobs with 1,000 of that in food manufacturing. • Professional and business services added an estimated 9,000 jobs over the last twelve months. Within the sector, administrative and support services grew by 5,800 jobs, computer systems design and related services by 2,300 jobs and accounting and bookkeeping services by 1,300 jobs. • Retail trade employment grew by an estimated 6,100 jobs. • Specialty-trade contractor employment rose by 6,500, leading the overall construction employment increase of 7,800.

Estimated year-over-year employment change by industry, not seasonally adjusted Washington state, October 2011 to October 2012 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Total Nonfarm Manufacturing Professional and Business Services Construction Leisure and Hospitality Retail Trade Education and Health Services Financial Activities Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Other Services Information Wholesale Trade Mining and Logging Government 54,900 12,600 9,000 7,800 7,400 6,100 5,800 4,300 3,000 1,400 0 0 -400 -2,100

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Monthly Employment Report for October 2012

Seasonally adjusted employment
Seasonally adjusted numbers account for normal seasonal patterns that occur year after year, such as strong seasonal hiring in retail trade around the holidays. Taking into account normal seasonal variations makes it possible to see unusual changes in employment levels. Normal seasonal change is the expected monthly change in employment based on history. Estimated change is the employment change over the month based on BLS survey data. Seasonally adjusted change is change in employment taking into account the normal seasonal movement.

Normal, estimated and seasonally adjusted employment Washington state, October 2012 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Industry sector Total nonfarm Government Education and health services Wholesale trade Retail trade Mining and logging Other services Financial activities Information Manufacturing Transportation, warehousing and utilities Professional and business services Construction Leisure and hospitality Normal seasonal Estimated change change 12,700 25,800 6,100 300 0 0 -800 -800 -1,000 -1,000 -1,200 -1,300 -1,900 -11,500 19,400 22,900 7,200 -200 3,300 -100 -700 1,000 -700 400 -600 600 -500 -13,200 Seasonally adjusted change 6,700 -2,900 1,100 -500 3,300 -100 100 1,800 300 1,400 600 1,900 1,400 -1,700

Based on historical patterns, Washington typically gains 12,700 jobs from September to October. This year, the state had an estimated gain of 19,400 jobs, amounting to a seasonally adjusted increase of 6,700 jobs. • Government employment increased by 22,900 jobs relative to the normal seasonal increase of 25,800. On a seasonally adjusted basis it was down 2,900. • Retail trade employment tends to be unchanged in October compared to September. This year the estimated change was an increase of 3,300 jobs, leaving a seasonally adjusted gain of 3,300. • Leisure and hospitality employment normally falls by 11,500 jobs. The decline this year is estimated to be 13,200 driving a seasonally drop of 1,700.

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Monthly Employment Report for October 2012

Benchmarking highlights, seasonally adjusted Quarterly benchmarked industry employment Washington state, June 2012 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages Updated: November 7, 2012
Benchmarking is a process that replaces employment estimates with the actual number of job gains or losses. Each month, economists estimate monthly job gains and losses based on a survey of employers. Each quarter, economists benchmark the estimates by replacing them with data from employer tax records before applying seasonal adjustments. Benchmarked employment data are now available through June 2012. Employment estimates for October 2012 presented in this report were based on these new data, plus seasonal adjustments. Based on benchmarked June 2012 data: Total nonfarm employment in June 2012 was 4,200 less than initially estimated. • Professional and business services were revised down by 4,200 jobs and wholesale trade was revised down by 2,500. • Education and health services had the largest upward revision, 3,200, followed by construction, revised up by 1,400. Each time employment estimates are benchmarked, estimates for subsequent months are recalculated. Based on benchmarked June 2012 data, employment estimates for July, August and September of 2012 were recalculated.

Industry sector Total nonfarm Education and health services Construction Retail trade Government Information Mining and logging Transportation, warehousing and utilities Leisure and hospitality Other services Financial activities Manufacturing Wholesale trade Professional and business services

Revisions to June 2012 employment level -4,200 3,200 1,400 1,200 300 0 -200 -200 -200 -500 -700 -1,800 -2,500 -4,200

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Monthly Employment Report for October 2012

Total agricultural employment summary, not seasonally adjusted
Statewide from September to October, agricultural employment decreased 9.8 percent. Year-over-year statewide, agricultural employment increased 4 percent. Regionally over the past year, all six areas had increases in total agricultural employment. The largest increase (1,160 jobs) was in the Columbia Basin reporting area. Eastern reporting area had the smallest increase (50 jobs). Agricultural employment estimates are developed by the Labor Market and Economic Analysis branch of the Employment Security Department. Estimates are based on a monthly survey of agricultural producers conducted by Employment Security. For agricultural reporting, we divide the state into six areas based on geography and types of agricultural activity. View a map of Washington’s agricultural reporting areas at: https://fortress. wa.gov/esd/employmentdata/ reports-publications/industryreports/agricultural-employmentand-wage-report/map-ofwashingtons-agricultural-areas.

Total agricultural employment Washington state, October 2012 Source: Employment Security Department/LMEA
Oct. ‘12 Sept. ‘12 Preliminary Revised 107,180 118,880 12,000 12,780 33,750 39,930 26,350 28,020 15,440 17,850 1,790 16,350 19,690 2,110 Change Percent change Oct. ‘11 Sept. ‘11- Oct. ‘11 - Sept. ‘12 - Oct. ‘11 Revised Oct. ‘12 Oct. ‘12 Oct. ‘12 Oct. ‘12 103,100 -11,700 4,080 -9.8% 4.0% 11,250 -780 750 -6.1% 6.7% 33,650 -6,180 100 -15.5% 0.3% 25,440 -1,670 920 -6.0% 3.6% 14,280 16,740 1,740 -910 -1,840 -320 1,160 1,110 50 -5.6% -9.3% -15.2% 8.1% 6.6% 2.9%

State Western South Central North Central Columbia Basin South Eastern Eastern

Totals may not add due to rounding. We report only agricultural employment covered by unemployment insurance, not adjusted for multiple jobholders.

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Monthly Employment Report for October 2012

Contacts
Chief Economist:
Joe Elling jelling@esd.wa.gov 360-407-4531

Regional labor economists:
Scott Bailey, Southwest Washington scott.bailey@esd.wa.gov 360-735-4995 Mark Berreth, N. Central Washington mberreth@esd.wa.gov 509-665-3737 Don Meseck, S. Central Washington dmeseck@esd.wa.gov 509-963-2606 Desiree Phair, King County dphair@esd.wa.gov 206-448-0474 ext. 3073 Elizabeth Court, Ph.D., Olympic Consortium Northwest ecourt@esd.wa.gov 360-621-3909 Ajsa Suljic, Asotin, Benton, Columbia, Franklin, Garfield and Walla Walla counties asuljic@esd.wa.gov 509-734-5928 Paul Turek, Ph.D., Pierce pturek@esd.wa.gov 253-593-7336 Doug Tweedy, Ferry, Lincoln, Pend Oreille, Spokane, Stevens and Whitman counties dtweedy@esd.wa.gov 509-532-3188 Anneliese Vance-Sherman, Ph.D., Snohomish avancesherman@esd.wa.gov 425-258-6315 Jim Vleming, Pacific Mountain jvleming@esd.wa.gov 360-407-4584

Economists:
Bruce Nimmo bnimmo@esd.wa.gov 360-407-4576 Alex Roubinchtein, Ph.D. aroubinchtein@esd.wa.gov 360-407-4581 Chris Thomas cthomas@esd.wa.gov 360-407-4582

Washington Relay Service: 800-833-6384

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Most of the employment numbers discussed in this report refer to jobs, not persons. For example, if a person holds two positions, these positions are counted as two jobs in the employment series. In the section titled “Unemployment,” these positions refer to individuals, not jobs. In this case, a person holding two jobs is counted only once.

Note: Due to changes in the processing of the monthly employment data by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the county level information will be available at 10 a.m., November 20, 2012. The publication schedule for 2012 can be found at: https://fortress.wa.gov/esd/employmentdata/reports-publications/economic-reports/monthly-employment-report.
The Employment Security Department is an equal-opportunity employer and provider of programs and services. Auxiliary aids and services are available upon request to people with disabilities.

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Monthly Employment Report for October 2012
LM-12-0281

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