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Oil Market Report

Product supply increasing again after pre-winter refinery maintenance


22 NOVEMBER 2012

SEB Oil Market Report

Crude oil market


Since its first release in July 2011, the IEA 2012 global oil demand forecast has been progressively reduced by 1.4 mb/d. Given current high macroeconomic headwinds and/or uncertainties affecting all major regional markets, it is hard to imagine the situation changing in the foreseeable future. In addition, expected long-term supply continues to increase as tight US oil production has exceeded expectations. Taking mainly these factors into account we recently lowered our Brent crude oil price forecast with risk skewed to the downside. Nevertheless, we still anticipate record high global oil consumption in 2012. While marginal unconventional barrels remain expensive to produce, middle distillate markets continue tight, geopolitical risk is extraordinarily high, and oil producers retain strong incentives to defend prices. Given all these factors, a deep, prolonged downturn in the oil market appears neither imminent nor likely unless the risk of a global recession increases significantly. While most recent data suggest the oil market was relatively balanced in Q3-12, there appears to be an oversupply of around 1 mb/d in the current quarter, partly due to lower consumption as a result of Hurricane Sandy and reactivation of North Sea production following maintenance. Overall, current OECD industry oil stocks are well above their five year average due to high North American and Asian crude oil stocks. Conversely, global oil product stocks are below normal. The International Energy Agencys (IEA) World Energy Outlook was optimistic regarding tight US oil production, which it now expects will increase from approximately 1 mb/d in 2011 to over 4 mb/d by the mid-2020s. As a result, the US may replace Saudi Arabia as the worlds largest oil producer by around 2020 and become virtually energy selfsufficient by the mid-2030s. Furthermore, North America could become a net exporter by around 2030. However, considering the novelty of tight oil production considerable uncertainty still surrounds these projections, e.g. regarding non-US potential and the life span of such resources. Geopolitical conditions in the MENA region continue to deteriorate, Gaza being the latest example and a source of significant market turbulence since the present conflict began. At the time of writing a ceasefire has at least postponed an Israeli ground invasion though the situation will probably remain tense until a more far reaching peace agreement is in place. Meanwhile, the civil war in Syria is increasingly impacting surrounding countries, such as Turkey, Lebanon and Israel. Other conflicts also remain unresolved, including Iran, Egypt and Bahrain, and could revive at any time even though attention is currently focused elsewhere.

Crude oil price


(NYMEX/ICE, $/b, front month, daily closing)
10 3 15 2 10 2 15 1 10 1 15 0 10 0 9 5 9 0 8 5 8 0 7 5 7 0 ja -10 n fe -1 b 0 m r-1 a 0 a r-1 p 0 m j-1 a 0 ju -10 n ju l-10 ag 0 u -1 se -1 p 0 o 0 kt-1 n v-1 o 0 d c-1 e 0 ja -11 n fe -1 b 1 m r-1 a 1 a r-1 p 1 m j-1 a 1 ju -11 n ju l-11 ag 1 u -1 se -1 p 1 o 1 kt-1 n v-1 o 1 d c-1 e 1 ja -12 n fe -1 b 2 m r-1 a 2 a r-1 p 2 m j-1 a 2 ju -12 n ju l-12 ag 2 u -1 se -1 p 2 o 2 kt-1 n v-1 o 2 6 5 N M WI Y EX T IC Bre t E n

IEA global crude oil demand estimates


(mb/d)
9 2 9 1 9 0 8 9 8 8 8 7 8 6 8 5 8 4 8 3 8 2 8 1 8 0 7 9 o 9 kt-0 o 0 kt-1 o 1 kt-1 o 2 kt-1 a r-1 p 0 a r-1 p 1 a r-1 p 2 ju 9 l-0 ju 0 l-1 ju 1 l-1 ja -1 n 0 ja -1 n 1 ja -1 n 2 ju 2 l-1 21 00 21 01 21 02 21 03

Chart Sources: IEA, Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research

Current global crude oil demand estimates


2012 (mb/d) 89.6 89.05 88.80 Revision (kb/d) -80 -40 -10 2013 (mb/d) 90.4 89.94 89.57 Revision (kb/d) -70 -70 -20

IEA EIA OPEC

SEB average Brent crude oil price forecast


($/b) 2012 2013 2014 2015 Q1 105 Q2 105 Q3 110 Q4 110 110 Full Year 111.7 107.5 110.0 115.0

10 0

12 0

14 0

16 0

18 0

10 1

12 1

10 0

10 1

10 2

10 3

10 4

10 5

9 2 ja -1 n 3 a r-1 p 3 ju 3 l-1 o 3 kt-1 ja -1 n 4 a r-1 p 4

9 4

9 6

9 8

1 0 20 03 20 04 IC Bre t E n 20 05 20 06 20 07 20 08 20 09 21 00 21 01 21 02 N M WI Y EX T

2 0

3 0

4 0

5 0

6 0

7 0

8 0

9 0

100 000

100 500

200 000

200 500

300 000

300 500

400 000

400 500

500 00
ju 4 l-1 o 4 kt-1 ja -1 n 5 a r-1 p 5 ju 5 l-1 o 5 kt-1 ja -1 n 6 a r-1 p 6 ju 6 l-1 o 6 kt-1 ja -1 n 7 a r-1 p 7 1 -1 -2 2 1 1 1 -1 -1 2 0 9 1 -0 -2 2 9 1

(ICE, $/b)

0 Ln og Sh rt o

Crude oil

Crude oil price

20 07

SEB Oil Market Report

Brent futures curve

20 08

Speculative positions WTI

Nt e

Chart Sources: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research

20 09

(NYMEX, lots, futures and options, weekly data)

(NYMEX/ICE, $/b, front month, weekly closing)

21 00

21 01

21 02

8 6

8 7

8 8

8 9

9 0

9 1

9 2

9 3

9 4

9 5

(NYMEX, $/b)

(daily closing)
ja -1 n 3 a r-1 p 3 ju 3 l-1 o 3 kt-1 ja -1 n 4 a r-1 p 4 ju 4 l-1 o 4 kt-1 ja -1 n 5 a r-1 p 5 ju 5 l-1 o 5 kt-1 ja -1 n 6 a r-1 p 6 ju 6 l-1 o 6 kt-1 ja -1 n 7 1 -1 -2 2 1 1 1 -1 -1 2 0 9 1 -0 -2 2 9 1

WTI futures curve

Benchmark spreads

12 month time spread

(NYMEX/ICE, %, daily closing, >0: contango, <0: backwardation)

8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -1 0 -1 2 -1 4 -1 6 -1 8 -2 0 -2 2 -2 4 -2 6 -2 8

1 8 1 6 1 4 1 2

-4 -6 -8 -1 0

1 0 8 6 4 2 0 -2

W Im u B n T in s re t Bre t m u D b i n in s u a Bre t m u U ls n in s ra

IC Bre t E n

N E WI YM X T

ja -1 n 0 fe -1 b 0 m r-1 a 0 a r-1 p 0 m j-1 a 0 ju -1 n 0 ju 0 l-1 ag 0 u -1 se -1 p 0 o 0 kt-1 n v-1 o 0 d c-1 e 0 ja -1 n 1 fe -1 b 1 m r-1 a 1 a r-1 p 1 m j-1 a 1 ju -1 n 1 ju 1 l-1 ag 1 u -1 se -1 p 1 o 1 kt-1 n v-1 o 1 d c-1 e 1 ja -1 n 2 fe -1 b 2 m r-1 a 2 a r-1 p 2 m j-1 a 2 ju -1 n 2 ju 2 l-1 ag 2 u -1 se -1 p 2 o 2 kt-1 n v-1 o 2

ja -1 n 0 fe -1 b 0 m r-1 a 0 a r-1 p 0 m j-1 a 0 ju -1 n 0 ju 0 l-1 ag 0 u -1 se -1 p 0 o 0 kt-1 n v-1 o 0 d c-1 e 0 ja -1 n 1 fe -1 b 1 m r-1 a 1 a r-1 p 1 m j-1 a 1 ju -1 n 1 ju 1 l-1 ag 1 u -1 se -1 p 1 o 1 kt-1 n v-1 o 1 d c-1 e 1 ja -1 n 2 fe -1 b 2 m r-1 a 2 a r-1 p 2 m j-1 a 2 ju -1 n 2 ju 2 l-1 ag 2 u -1 se -1 p 2 o 2 kt-1 n v-1 o 2

SEB Oil Market Report

Crude oil
US crude oil inventories
(DOE, mb, weekly data)
3 90 3 80 3 70 3 60 3 50
c

OECD total industry oil stocks


(mb, monthly data)
20 80 27 75 25 70 22 75 20 70 27 65 25 60 22 65 5 ye r ra g , to a ne p 5 ye r ra g , b tto a ne o m 21 02 5 ye r a e g a v ra e

3 40 3 30 3 20 3 10 j f m a m j j a s o n d 5 yea a era r v ge 20 11 20 12

20 60 27 55 25 50 22 55 j f m a m j j a s o n d

OECD Europe industry oil stocks


(mb, monthly data)
13 00 12 00 11 00 10 00 90 9 90 8 90 7 90 6 90 5 5 ye r ra g , to a ne p 5 ye r ra g , b tto a ne o m 21 02 5 ye r a e g a v ra e

OECD North America industry oil stocks


(mb, monthly data)
10 40 17 35 15 30 12 35 10 30 17 25 15 20 12 25 5 ye r ra g to a n e, p 5 ye r ra g b tto a n e, o m 21 02 5 ye r a e g a v ra e

90 4 90 3 90 2 j f m a m j j a s o n d 10 20 17 15 j f m a m j j a s o n d

OECD Asia & Oceania industry oil stocks


(mb, monthly data)
40 5 45 4 40 4 45 3 40 3 45 2 40 2 45 1 40 1 45 0 40 0 35 9 30 9 35 8 30 8 35 7 j f m a m j j a s o n d 5 ye r ra g , to a ne p 5 ye r ra g , b tto a ne o m 21 02 5 ye r a e g a v ra e

OPEC production
(kb/d, monthly data)
300 30 300 20 300 10 300 00 200 90 200 80 200 70 200 60 200 50 ja -0 n 8 m r-0 a 8 m j-0 a 8 ju 8 l-0 se -0 p 8 n v-0 o 8 ja -0 n 9 m r-0 a 9 m j-0 a 9 ju 9 l-0 se -0 p 9 n v-0 o 9 ja -1 n 0 m r-1 a 0 m j-1 a 0 ju 0 l-1 se -1 p 0 n v-1 o 0 ja -1 n 1 m r-1 a 1 m j-1 a 1 ju 1 l-1 se -1 p 1 n v-1 o 1 ja -1 n 2 m r-1 a 2 m j-1 a 2 ju 2 l-1 se -1 p 2 200 40 O PEC 2 p d ctio -1 ro u n O PEC 1 p d ctio -1 ro u n

Chart Sources: Bloomberg, IEA, SEB Commodity Research

SEB Oil Market Report

European oil product markets


Most European refineries are now back online after pre-winter maintenance despite restart delays occurring. Production at Asian and Middle Eastern refineries has also largely resumed with the US also almost back to normal. Over the last two months, oil product cracks have mainly trended lower in all parts of the barrel, in most cases from high levels. European temperatures remain relatively warm, depressing oil product demand, which is good news for the still tight middle of the barrel. Although refineries are back in production, easing worst fears of a middle distillate crunch, it is still too early to assume the threat has past. This part of the barrel will remain sensitive and should be monitored closely, particularly given its potential impact on overall oil sector sentiment. Light ends: With high stock levels and good physical supply the naphtha market appears to have passed its peak in relatively strength this time around. Off driving season demand from gasoline blenders is weak while petrochemical demand is low due to economic headwinds and consumers seeking to reduce stocks before the year end. However, flow to Asia, where demand is stronger, and still high propane prices offer support. As we expected, with the strong market seasonally over-extended, falls in gasoline cracks in October were inevitable. Although European inventories remain low, their US counterparts have normalised. Meanwhile, relatively stronger US demand continues to pull barrels out of Europe. A more robust Asian market may also help drive the current crack rebound. Middle distillates: Relatively soft demand, inbound arbitrage cargoes and refineries coming back online have cooled the overheated diesel market which seems to have weathered the eye of the storm. For now at least, the focus has switched to the jet fuel market which has tightened gradually since refineries began maximising diesel production. Demand is good, stocks are low and future arbitrage inflow appears limited as Asia is prioritising its kerosene output ahead of winter. With European oil product stocks for heating purposes still low, the big test for middle distillates will probably occur when temperatures first fall sharply. We expect the middle part of the barrel to remain relative strong, at least for now. Heavy ends: Fuel oil remains the weakest link in product markets. However, after more than two months of falling cracks relative downside may well be more limited. Plentiful supply and weak demand are weighing on the European market while so far supportive flow to Asia need not necessarily continue given strong local supply and moderate demand. Lower relative prices may however stimulate some feedstock demand. The high-low spread has narrowed on better European LS supply.

European light end benchmarks


($/t, daily closing)
10 20 15 10 10 10 15 00 10 00 90 5 90 0 80 5 80 0 70 5 70 0 60 5 ja -10 n fe -1 b 0 m r-1 a 0 a r-1 p 0 m j-1 a 0 ju -10 n ju l-10 ag 0 u -1 se -1 p 0 o 0 kt-1 n v-1 o 0 d c-1 e 0 ja -11 n fe -1 b 1 m r-1 a 1 a r-1 p 1 m j-1 a 1 ju -11 n ju l-11 ag 1 u -1 se -1 p 1 o 1 kt-1 n v-1 o 1 d c-1 e 1 ja -12 n fe -1 b 2 m r-1 a 2 a r-1 p 2 m j-1 a 2 ju -12 n ju l-12 ag 2 u -1 se -1 p 2 o 2 kt-1 n v-1 o 2 J t fu l e e D se 1 p m ie l 0 p G so 0 % a il .1 60 0 N p th ah a G so e a lin

European middle distillate benchmarks


($/t, daily closing)
15 10 10 10 15 00 10 00 90 5 90 0 80 5 80 0 70 5 70 0 60 5 60 0 50 5

European fuel oil benchmarks


($/t, daily closing)
80 0 75 7 70 5 75 2 70 0 65 7 60 5 65 2 60 0 55 7 50 5 55 2 50 0 45 7 40 5 45 2 40 0 35 7 30 5 H h su h r fu l o (3 % ig lp u e il .5 ) L w su h r fu l o (1 % o lp u e il .0 )

Chart Sources: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research

ja -1 n 0 fe -1 b 0 m r-1 a 0 a r-1 p 0 m j-1 a 0 ju -1 n 0 ju 0 l-1 ag 0 u -1 se -1 p 0 o 0 kt-1 n v-1 o 0 d c-1 e 0 ja -1 n 1 fe -1 b 1 m r-1 a 1 a r-1 p 1 m j-1 a 1 ju -1 n 1 ju 1 l-1 ag 1 u -1 se -1 p 1 o 1 kt-1 n v-1 o 1 d c-1 e 1 ja -1 n 2 fe -1 b 2 m r-1 a 2 a r-1 p 2 m j-1 a 2 ju -1 n 2 ju 2 l-1 ag 2 u -1 se -1 p 2 o 2 kt-1 n v-1 o 2

ja -1 n 0 fe -1 b 0 m r-1 a 0 a r-1 p 0 m j-1 a 0 ju -1 n 0 ju 0 l-1 ag 0 u -1 se -1 p 0 o 0 kt-1 n v-1 o 0 d c-1 e 0 ja -1 n 1 fe -1 b 1 m r-1 a 1 a r-1 p 1 m j-1 a 1 ju -1 n 1 ju 1 l-1 ag 1 u -1 se -1 p 1 o 1 kt-1 n v-1 o 1 d c-1 e 1 ja -1 n 2 fe -1 b 2 m r-1 a 2 a r-1 p 2 m j-1 a 2 ju -1 n 2 ju 2 l-1 ag 2 u -1 se -1 p 2 o 2 kt-1 n v-1 o 2

SEB Oil Market Report

Oil products
US gasoline and distillate inventories
(DOE, mb, weekly data)
20 4 20 3 20 2 20 1 20 0 10 9 10 8 10 7 10 6 10 5 10 4 10 3 10 2 10 1 j f m a m j j a s o n d G so e 5 ye r a e g a lin a v ra e G so e 2 1 a lin 0 2 D istilla fu l o 5 ye r a e g te e il a v ra e D istilla fu l o 2 1 te e il 0 2

US product benchmarks
(NYMEX, /gal, front month, daily closing)
30 6 30 5 30 4 30 3 30 2 30 1 30 0 20 9 20 8 20 7 20 6 20 5 20 4 20 3 20 2 20 1 20 0 10 9 10 8 G so e a lin H a go e tin il

US refinery utilization
(%, weekly data)
9 3 9 2 9 1 9 0 8 9 8 8 8 7 8 6 8 5 8 4 8 3 8 2 8 1 j f m a m j j a s o n d 2 0 -2 1 a g 0 7 0 1 v. 21 02

ICE Gasoil and European premiums to Gasoil


($/t, daily closing)
10 10 15 00 10 00 90 5 90 0 80 5 80 0 70 5 70 0 60 5 60 0 50 5 IC G so 0 % (le E a il .1 ft) J t fu l p m m (rig t) e e re iu h D se 1 p m p m m (rig t) ie l 0 p re iu h 10 1 10 0 9 0 8 0 7 0 6 0 5 0 4 0 3 0 2 0 1 0 0 -1 0 -2 0

European product cracks


($/b, daily closing)
3 5 3 0 2 5 2 0 1 5 1 0 5 0 -5 -1 0 -1 5 -2 0 ja -1 n 0 fe -1 b 0 m 0 ar-1 a 0 pr-1 m 0 aj-1 ju -1 n 0 jul-1 0 au -1 g 0 se -1 p 0 o 0 kt-1 n ov-1 0 de 0 c-1 ja -1 n 1 fe -1 b 1 m 1 ar-1 a 1 pr-1 m 1 aj-1 ju -1 n 1 jul-1 1 au -1 g 1 se -1 p 1 o 1 kt-1 n ov-1 1 de 1 c-1 ja -1 n 2 fe -1 b 2 m 2 ar-1 a 2 pr-1 m 2 aj-1 ju -1 n 2 jul-1 2 au -1 g 2 se -1 p 2 o 2 kt-1 n ov-1 2 -2 5 N ph a a th J fu l et e L su hu fu oil ow lp r el D se 10 p m ie l p G so e a lin G so 0.1% a il H h su hu fu o ig lp r el il

European low - high sulphur fuel oil differential


($/t, daily closing)
7 5 7 0 6 5 6 0 5 5 5 0 4 5 4 0 3 5 3 0 2 5 2 0 1 5 1 0 5 0 -5 -1 0 -1 5

Chart Sources: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research

ja -1 n 0 fe -1 b 0 m r-1 a 0 a r-1 p 0 m j-1 a 0 ju -1 n 0 ju 0 l-1 ag 0 u -1 se -1 p 0 o 0 kt-1 n v-1 o 0 d c-1 e 0 ja -1 n 1 fe -1 b 1 m r-1 a 1 a r-1 p 1 m j-1 a 1 ju -1 n 1 ju 1 l-1 ag 1 u -1 se -1 p 1 o 1 kt-1 n v-1 o 1 d c-1 e 1 ja -1 n 2 fe -1 b 2 m r-1 a 2 a r-1 p 2 m j-1 a 2 ju -1 n 2 ju 2 l-1 ag 2 u -1 se -1 p 2 o 2 kt-1 n v-1 o 2

ja -1 n 0 fe -1 b 0 m r-1 a 0 a r-1 p 0 m j-1 a 0 ju -1 n 0 ju 0 l-1 ag 0 u -1 se -1 p 0 o 0 kt-1 n v-1 o 0 d c-1 e 0 ja -1 n 1 fe -1 b 1 m r-1 a 1 a r-1 p 1 m j-1 a 1 ju -1 n 1 ju 1 l-1 ag 1 u -1 se -1 p 1 o 1 kt-1 n v-1 o 1 d c-1 e 1 ja -1 n 2 fe -1 b 2 m r-1 a 2 a r-1 p 2 m j-1 a 2 ju -1 n 2 ju 2 l-1 ag 2 u -1 se -1 p 2 o 2 kt-1 n v-1 o 2

ja -1 n 0 fe -1 b 0 m r-1 a 0 a r-1 p 0 m j-1 a 0 ju -1 n 0 ju 0 l-1 ag 0 u -1 se -1 p 0 o 0 kt-1 n v-1 o 0 d c-1 e 0 ja -1 n 1 fe -1 b 1 m r-1 a 1 a r-1 p 1 m j-1 a 1 ju -1 n 1 ju 1 l-1 ag 1 u -1 se -1 p 1 o 1 kt-1 n v-1 o 1 d c-1 e 1 ja -1 n 2 fe -1 b 2 m r-1 a 2 a r-1 p 2 m j-1 a 2 ju -1 n 2 ju 2 l-1 ag 2 u -1 se -1 p 2 o 2 kt-1 n v-1 o 2

SEB Oil Market Report

Oil products
Regional 3-2-1 cracks
($/b, daily closing)
4 2 4 0 3 8 3 6 3 4 3 2 3 0 2 8 2 6 2 4 2 2 2 0 1 8 1 6 1 4 1 2 1 0 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 A (M a sia in s) U (W I) S T E ro e (B n u p re t) P rsia G lf (D b i) e n u ua

European naphtha stocks


(kt, monthly data)
10 8 10 7 10 6 10 5 10 4 10 3 10 2 10 1 10 0 9 0 8 0 7 0 6 0 5 0 4 0 3 0 2 0 j f 4 ye r ra g to a n e, p 4 ye r ra g b tto a n e, o m 21 02 4 ye r a e g a v ra e

ja -1 n 0 fe -1 b 0 m r-1 a 0 a r-1 p 0 m j-1 a 0 ju -1 n 0 ju 0 l-1 ag 0 u -1 se -1 p 0 o 0 kt-1 n v-1 o 0 d c-1 e 0 ja -1 n 1 fe -1 b 1 m r-1 a 1 a r-1 p 1 m j-1 a 1 ju -1 n 1 ju 1 l-1 ag 1 u -1 se -1 p 1 o 1 kt-1 n v-1 o 1 d c-1 e 1 ja -1 n 2 fe -1 b 2 m r-1 a 2 a r-1 p 2 m j-1 a 2 ju -1 n 2 ju 2 l-1 ag 2 u -1 se -1 p 2 o 2 kt-1 n v-1 o 2

European gasoline stocks


(kt, monthly data)
15 10 10 10 15 00 10 00 90 5 90 0 80 5 80 0 70 5 70 0 60 5 60 0 50 5 50 0 40 5 40 0 j f m a m j j a s o n d 4 ye r ra g , to a ne p 4 ye r ra g , b tto a ne o m 21 02 4 ye r a e g a v ra e

European jet fuel stocks


(kt, monthly data)
90 0 80 5 80 0 70 5 70 0 60 5 60 0 50 5 50 0 40 5 40 0 30 5 30 0 20 5 20 0 10 5 10 0 j f m a m j j a

4 ye r ra g , to a ne p 4 ye r ra g , b tto a ne o m 21 02 4 ye r a e g a v ra e s o n d

European gasoil stocks


(kt, monthly data)
30 10 30 00 20 90 20 80 20 70 20 60 20 50 20 40 20 30 20 20 20 10 20 00 10 90 10 80 10 70 10 60 10 50 10 40 10 30 10 20 10 10 10 00 j f

European fuel oil stocks


(kt, monthly data)
15 00 10 00 90 5 90 0 80 5 80 0 70 5 70 0 60 5 60 0 50 5 50 0 40 5 40 0 4 ye r ra g , to a ne p 4 ye r ra g , b tto a ne o m 21 02 4 ye r a e g a v ra e

4 ye r ra g , to a ne p 4 ye r ra g , b tto a ne o m 21 02 4 ye r a e g a v ra e

Chart Sources: Bloomberg, PJK International, SEB Commodity Research

SEB Oil Market Report

Oil products
US implied crude oil demand
(DOE, mb/d, weekly data)
1 ,8 5 1 ,6 5 1 ,4 5 1 ,2 5 1 ,0 5 1 ,8 4 1 ,6 4 1 ,4 4 1 ,2 4 1 ,0 4 1 ,8 3 1 ,6 3 1 ,4 3 j f m a m j j a s o n d 5 ag y v. 21 01 21 02
8 ,9 5y a g v. 20 11 20 12 9 ,1 9 ,3 9 ,5

US implied gasoline demand


(DOE, mb/d, weekly data)
9 ,7

8 ,7

8 ,5 j f m a m j j a s o n d

US implied distillate demand


(DOE, mb/d, weekly data)
5 ,6 5 ,4 5 ,2 5 ,0 4 ,8 4 ,6 4 ,4 4 ,2 4 ,0 j f m a m j j a s o n d 5 a g. y v 2 1 01 2 2 01

Gasoline arbitrage Rotterdam to New York


($/t, daily closing)
4 4 4 0 3 6 3 2 2 8 2 4 2 0 1 6 1 2 8 4 0 -4 -8 -1 2 -1 6 -2 0 -2 4

Middle distillate arbitrage Rotterdam to New York


($/t, daily closing)
2 0 1 5 1 0 5 0 -5 -1 0 -1 5 -2 0 H a g o a il e tin il/G so J t fu l/Ke se e e e ro n

Chart Sources: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research

ja -1 n 1 fe -1 b 1 m r-1 a 1 a r-1 p 1 m j-1 a 1 ju -1 n 1 ju 1 l-1 ag 1 u -1 se -1 p 1 o 1 kt-1 n v-1 o 1 d c-1 e 1 ja -1 n 2 fe -1 b 2 m r-1 a 2 a r-1 p 2 m j-1 a 2 ju -1 n 2 ju 2 l-1 ag 2 u -1 se -1 p 2 o 2 kt-1 n v-1 o 2

-2 5

ja -11 n fe -1 b 1 m r-1 a 1 a r-1 p 1 m j-1 a 1 ju -11 n ju l-11 ag 1 u -1 se -1 p 1 o 1 kt-1 n v-1 o 1 d c-1 e 1 ja -12 n fe -1 b 2 m r-1 a 2 a r-1 p 2 m j-1 a 2 ju -12 n ju l-12 ag 2 u -1 se -1 p 2 o 2 kt-1 n v-1 o 2

SEB Oil Market Report

Related energy markets


US natural gas price
(NYMEX, $/MMBtu, front month, weekly closing)
1 4 1 3 1 2 1 1 1 0 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

UK natural gas price


(ICE, front month, weekly closing)
1 6 1 5 1 4 1 3 1 2 1 1 1 0 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 4 0 3 0 2 0 5 0 $ M /M Btu (le a ft xis) G p e (rig t a B /th rm h xis) 9 0 8 0 7 0 6 0

20 07

20 08

20 09

21 00

21 01

21 02

20 07

20 08

20 09

21 00

21 01

Nordic power price


(Nord Pool, /MWh, front quarter, weekly closing)
8 0 7 5 7 0 6 5 6 0 5 5 5 0 4 5 4 0 3 5 3 0 2 5 2 0

Continental power price


(EEX, /MWh, front quarter, weekly closing)
9 5 9 0 8 5 8 0 7 5 7 0 6 5 6 0 5 5 5 0 4 5 4 0 3 5 3 0 2 5 2 0

20 07

20 08

20 09

21 00

21 01

21 02 21 02

20 09

21 00

21 01

EUA price
(ECX ICE, /t, Dec. 11, weekly closing)
3 4 3 2 3 0 2 8 2 6 2 4 2 2 2 0 1 8 1 6 1 4 1 2 1 0 8 6

21 02

Coal price
(CIF ARA steam coal, API#2, daily closing)
15 3 10 3 15 2 10 2 15 1 10 1 15 0 10 0 9 5 9 0 8 5 8 0 7 5 7 0

Chart Sources: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research

a r-1 p 0 m j-1 a 0 ju -1 n 0 ju 0 l-1 ag 0 u -1 se -1 p 0 o 0 kt-1 n v-1 o 0 d c-1 e 0 ja -1 n 1 fe -1 b 1 m r-1 a 1 a r-1 p 1 m j-1 a 1 ju -1 n 1 ju 1 l-1 ag 1 u -1 se -1 p 1 o 1 kt-1 n v-1 o 1 d c-1 e 1 ja -1 n 2 fe -1 b 2 m r-1 a 2 a r-1 p 2 m j-1 a 2 ju -1 n 2 ju 2 l-1 ag 2 u -1 se -1 p 2 o 2 kt-1 n v-1 o 2

20 07

20 08

20 09

21 00

21 01

21 02

SEB Oil Market Report

Market indicators
MSCI World equity market index
(weekly closing)
10 70 10 60 10 50 10 40 10 30 10 20 10 10 10 00 90 0 80 0 70 0 60 0

UBS Bloomberg CMCI commodity market index


(price index, weekly closing)
10 80 10 70 10 60 10 50 10 40 10 30 10 20 10 10 10 00 90 0 80 0 70 0 60 0

20 05

20 06

20 07

20 08

20 09

21 00

21 01

21 02

20 05

20 06

20 07

20 08

20 09

21 00

21 01

JPM global manufacturing PMI


(monthly, PMIs >50 expansive)
5 8 5 6 5 4 5 2 5 0 4 8 4 6 4 4 4 2 4 0 3 8 3 6 3 4 3 2

Regional PMI:s
(monthly data)
6 5 6 0 5 5 5 0 4 5 4 0 3 5 3 0

U S Eu zo e ro n C in h a R fe n e re ce

20 05

20 06

20 07

20 08

20 09

21 00

21 01

Regional industrial production growth


(%, y/y, monthly data)
2 5 2 0 1 5 1 0 5 0 -5 -1 0 -1 5 -2 0 -2 5 m r-0 a 6 ju -0 n 6 se -0 p 6 d c-0 e 6 m r-0 a 7 ju -0 n 7 se -0 p 7 d c-0 e 7 m r-0 a 8 ju -0 n 8 se -0 p 8 d c-0 e 8 m r-0 a 9 ju -0 n 9 se -0 p 9 d c-0 e 9 m r-1 a 0 ju -1 n 0 se -1 p 0 d c-1 e 0 m r-1 a 1 ju -1 n 1 se -1 p 1 d c-1 e 1 m r-1 a 2 ju -1 n 2 se -1 p 2 U S Eu zo e ro n C in h a

21 02

OECD composite leading indicators


(monthly, 100 corresponds to long term trend growth in industrial production)
14 0 13 0 12 0 11 0 10 0 9 9 9 8 9 7 9 6 9 5 9 4 9 3 20 05 20 06 20 07 20 08 20 09 21 00 21 01 21 02 C in h a Eu zo e ro n O D EC U A S R fe n e re ce

Chart Sources: Bloomberg, OECD, SEB Commodity Research

m r-0 a 6 ju -0 n 6 se -0 p 6 d c-0 e 6 m r-0 a 7 ju -0 n 7 se -0 p 7 d c-0 e 7 m r-0 a 8 ju -0 n 8 se -0 p 8 d c-0 e 8 m r-0 a 9 ju -0 n 9 se -0 p 9 d c-0 e 9 m r-1 a 0 ju -1 n 0 se -1 p 0 d c-1 e 0 m r-1 a 1 ju -1 n 1 se -1 p 1 d c-1 e 1 m r-1 a 2 ju -1 n 2 se -1 p 2

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SEB Oil Market Report

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SEB Commodity Research


Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief Commodity Analyst bjarne.schieldrop@seb.no +47 9248 9230 Filip Petersson, Commodity Strategist filip.petersson@seb.se +46 8 506 230 47

www.seb.se