Commodities Daily Report

Monday| November 26, 2012

Agricultural Commodities

Content
News & Market Highlights Chana Sugar Oilseed Complex Spices Complex Kapas/Cotton

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar - Sr. Research Analyst vedika.narvekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6130 Anuj Choudhary - Research Analyst anuj.choudhary@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6132

Vaishali Sheth - Research Associate vaishalij.sheth@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6133
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Commodities Daily Report
Monday| November 26, 2012

Agricultural Commodities
News in brief
Wheat sowing gathers pace, pulses lag, as winter advances
With the onset of winter in many parts of north and central India, sowing of wheat and oilseeds has picked up pace. Yet, till Friday, wheat sowing was still marginally lower than the corresponding period of last year, mainly because of a delayed harvest of the previous paddy crop. “As the paddy gets harvested, more areas will be brought under wheat and we are hopeful of matching last year’s overall wheat acreage,” a senior government official said. Wheat is the foodgrain sown in the most areas during rabi; the area covered till last week was 9.18 million hectares, just 4.6 per cent less than the area sown during the same period last year. The other lag till now has been in the sowing of pulses, planted on 8.51 million hectares till last week, 7.9 per cent less than the same period last year. There was hope that delayed withdrawal of the southwest monsoon would spur pulses sowing but that did not seem to be the case till last week. Oilseeds have been planted on 6.12 million hectares till Friday, almost 4.6 per cent more than last year. Meanwhile, coarse cereals had been planted on 4.17 million hectares, just 0.4 per cent less than last year. Experts believe with adequate water available in major reservoirs across the country and sufficient moisture in the soil because of the southwest monsoon’s late withdrawal, sowing of wheat will gather momentum in the coming weeks. The worry is in pulses. After its kharif loss, the focus was on rabi pulses production. According to the National Council of Applied Economic Research ( NCAER), production of kharif pulses is expected to be 5.26 million tonnes, around 15 per cent less than last year’s. (Source: Business Standard)

Market Highlights (% change)
Last Prev. day

as on Nov 23, 2012
WoW MoM YoY

Sensex Nifty INR/$ Nymex Crude Oil - $/bbl Comex Gold - $/oz*

18507 5627 55.45 88.28 1751

-0.06 -0.02 0.59 1.03 1.35

1.08 0.94 0.52 1.86 2.16

-1.53 -1.58 3.53 -0.51 1.52

15.20 16.92 5.64 -9.93 2.88

.Source: Reuters

Ukraine says traders prepared to halt wheat exports
Ukraine's grain traders are ready to halt milling wheat exports on an informal basis, as they approach a critical limit, in order to protect the domestic market after a poor harvest, the agriculture ministry said on Friday. Exports of milling wheat have reached 5.2 million tonnes so far this season, said the ministry, which had previously agreed to allow traders to ship abroad no more than 5.5 million tonnes. Agriculture minister Mykola Prysyazhnyuk held a meeting with traders on Friday at which they expressed their readiness to curtail milling wheat exports, he ministry said in a statement. (Source: Reuters)

Brazil may have made rare buy of German wheat
Brazilian buyers may have made a rare purchase of German wheat in response to lower supply from its main source Argentina, European traders and analysts said on Friday. Argentina's wheat crop has suffered from months of heavy rain, reducing yields and threatening quality at a time when poor weather has reduced supply in other exporting countries. "We now hear and have confirmation of at least one vessel of German wheat that will load shortly for Brazil," Geneva-based grains analyst Noel Fryer said a note. Traders said Brazilian interest in highquality German wheat made sense but cautioned that sales would have to be confirmed. (Source: Reuters)

Farmers consortium calls for decontrol of rice, wheat
The Consortium of Indian Farmers Association (CIFA) has demanded removal of all trading controls on exports of rice, wheat and cotton. The association wanted the Government to allow them to export whenever international markets offered them good prices. It also asked the Government not to create barriers within the country. A national level meet of farmers, which was held here on Saturday, discussed the status of trade in wheat, rice and cotton and strongly felt that the Government was coming in the way from realising good returns. The meet demanded that the country should have an exclusive Budget for issues related to agriculture. “The farming sector deserves an exclusive Budget. This will help the country plan better and tackle farm challenges,” P. Chengal Reddy, Secretary-General of CIFA, said. (Source: Business Line)

Vietnam says Jan-Nov rice exports hit record 7.44 mln T
Vietnam's rice exports between January and November rose 9.7 percent from a year ago to an estimated 7.44 million tonnes, the Agriculture Ministry said, led by Chinese purchases and already a record for annual shipments. Rising exports has put Vietnam on track to match the position of Thailand, the world's top rice exporter, which is expected to ship 7.5 million tonnes this year and 8.7 million tonnes in 2013. But Vietnam's exports would still be well below an expected shipment of 10 million tonnes from India, based on a USDA forecast. Vietnam's rice export revenue for the 11-month period eased 1.4 percent from the same period last year to $3.42 billion, the ministry said in its monthly report, attributing the drop to lower export prices. Industry officials say rice shipments from Vietnam, now the world's second-largest exporter, could hit 7.5 million tonnes in 2012, up from 7.2 million tonnes last year, which was the previous record. (Source: Reuters)

Cheaper Pakistan Sugar Floods Punjab Market
Sugar from Pakistan, which is at least Rs. 5/kg cheaper than the Indian variety, is finding favour with traders in the country, especially across the border in Punjab. “Sugar coming from Pakistan to Punjab costs around . 35 per kg in India (including duty and transportation) compared with the local variety being sold at Rs. 40/kg, offering a good margin for traders,” said Rajauli Singh, a sugar trader in Amritsar. According to an industry source, Pakistan has the lowest sugar price at Rs. 25/kg in Indian rupee. (1 Pakistani rupee equals 0.5776 Indian rupee). The prices of Brazilian raw sugar are ruling around $500 a tonne while Indian sugar prices have climbed by around 25% in the past three months to about $680 a tonne, making imports from Pakistan viable. (Source: Economic Times)

Sudan, China to set up agricultural free-trade zone
Sudan has allowed China to set up a free-trade zone for agricultural products and livestock to boost bilateral transactions, state news agency SUNA said on Sunday, as the African country seeks to increase farm exports to offset the loss of oil. China is Sudan's main trading partner and donor for development projects, throwing a lifeline as few Western countries or firms deal with Khartoum because of a U.S. embargo over the country's human rights record. Sudan has been trying to boost exports of agricultural products and livestock such as cattle to generate a new source for state revenues and foreign exchange after losing threequarters of oil production when South Sudan became independent in July 2011. Oil used to fund much of the state budget. (Source: Reuters)

Revoke Ban on Guar Futures, Say Farmers, Exporters
Guar farmers and exporters are planning to hold a protest in Rajasthan, Punjab and Haryana demanding that the Forward Markets Commission (FMC) lift the ban on guar futures. In spot market, guar seed prices have fallen by 30% to . 8,000-8,400 a quintal in the past one month owing to poor export orders and a good production. However, a section of manufacturers and exporters feels the ban should remain to ensure stability in prices. Currently, the FMC is holding talks with the commerce ministry. (Source: Economic Times)

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Commodities Daily Report
Monday| November 26, 2012

Agricultural Commodities
Chana
Chana spot settled marginally higher on Saturday as demand is seen emerging at lower levels. However, futures settled marginally lower by 0.33% on Saturday as Chana sowing has gained momentum. Total pulses acreage as on 23rd November is down by 8% to 85.1 lakh hectares from 92.49 lakh ha last season. Acreage was down by almost 17% till the previous week and thus shown some recovery in the sowing. Area under Chana cultivation in Maharashtra is up by 39 percent at 6.7 rd lakh hectares as on 23 Nov. While in Andra Pradesh it is up by 35% at 4.93 lakh hectares. However, in Rajasthan, sowing is much behind last year’s level due to late harvesting of kharif crops on account of delayed and deficient rains. Except for Wheat, minimum support price of all other Rabi crops has been increased by CCEA for 2012-13 season. MSP of Chana/Gram is raised by Rs 400 per qtl for 2012-13 season to Rs 3200. Higher returns and favorable soil condition will definitely boost acreage in the coming season. The Commission for Agriculture Costs and Prices (CACP) has suggested 10 per cent import duty on pulses to encourage domestic production. in the first six months of the new fiscal that is from April to September this year, imports were an estimated 12 lakh tonnes.

Market Highlights
Unit Rs/qtl Rs/qtl Last 4430 4255 Prev day 0.35 -0.33

as on Nov 24, 2012 % change WoW MoM -3.69 -5.81 -9.78 -10.46 YoY 33.69 32.43

Chana Spot - NCDEX (Delhi) Chana- NCDEX Nov'12 Futures

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart - Chana

NCDEX Dec contract

Sowing progress and demand supply fundamentals
Improved rains towards the end of monsoon season coupled with hike in MSP have raised prospects of Chana sowing in the 2012-13 season. Also, farm ministry has targeted 7.9 mn tn chana output for 2012-13 season, higher compared to 7.58 mn tn in 2011-12. According to the Ministry of Agriculture 99.81 Lakh hectare area has been planted under Kharif pulses in 2012-13 compared to 108.28 lakh hectare (ha) in the previous year. According to the first advance estimates of 2012-13 season, kharif pulses output is estimated lower by 14.6% at 5.26 million tonnes compared with 6.16 mn tn last year. Kharif pulses harvesting would commence from next month. Assocham estimates, 21 mn tn of pulses demand in 2012-13 and is likely to reach at 21.42 mn tn in 2013-14 and 21.91 MT in 2014-15. (Source: Agriwatch)
Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Contract Chana Dec Futures Unit Rs./qtl Support

valid for Nov 26, 2012 Resistance 4285-4320

4168-4210

Outlook
Chana futures may open higher initially amid short coverings; however, selling at higher levels is advisable as fundamentals remain supportive for the downside. Expectations of ease in supplies amid higher shipments coupled with subdued demand will keep bearishness intact. Going forward, prices may also take cues from sowing progress of Rabi pulses which is expected to gain momentum in the coming days.

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Commodities Daily Report
Monday| November 26, 2012

Agricultural Commodities
Sugar
Sugar spot continued to remain weak on reports of upward revision in sugar production for 2012-13 season. However, futures recovered from their lowest in nearly a month on talks that the government will give mills flexibility in selling sugar in the open market by releasing the quota for four months instead of one month. However, in Maharashtra, Farmers associations have been agitating for higher cane prices have threatened to stop trucks leaving sugar mills. There are reports that the government has decided to allocate the open market sale quota for the next four months (December-March) instead of current system of quarterly release. 9.84 lakh tons of sugar has been produced in the current sugar season 2012-13 upto 15th November, 2012 that is 2 lakh tons higher to the production in the same period last year of 7.76 lakh tons. (Source: PIB) Maharashtra Finance Minister Jayant Patil on 18 Nov said most of the cooperative sugar factories in western Maharashtra have agreed to pay Rs 2,500 for a tonne of sugarcane as first advance to farmers. According to sources, the UP Government may announce a hike of Rs 20-30 a quintal over the next few days against Rs 240 a quintal last season. Also, Tamil Nadu State Government for the 2012-13 season fixed State Advised Price (SAP) for a tonne of sugarcane at Rs 2,350 linked to a sugar recovery of 9.5 per cent from last season price of Rs 2,100 a ton. Liffe white sugar settled lower by 2.26% and 2.55% respectively. Higher pace of crushing in Brazil coupled with higher sugar surplus forecast for fourth straight year has led to a sharp decline in international sugar prices.
th

Market Highlights
Unit Sugar Spot- NCDEX (Kolhapur) Sugar M- NCDEX Nov '12 Futures Rs/qtl Last 3438

as on Nov 24, 2012 % Change Prev. day WoW -0.11 -0.70 MoM -1.56 YoY 13.47

Rs/qtl

3308

0.27

-4.72

-2.33

13.99

Source: Reuters

International Prices
Unit Sugar No 5- LiffeMar'13 Futures Sugar No 11-ICE Mar '13 Futures * $/tonne $/tonne Last 510.6 425.33

as on Nov 23, 2012 % Change Prev day WoW -2.26 -2.55 -2.98 -4.01 MoM -6.43 -2.74 YoY -15.06 -17.21

*Prices as on Nov 21, 2012

.Source: Reuters

Technical Chart - Sugar

NCDEX Dec contract

Domestic Production and Exports
According to the first advance estimates by agriculture ministry, Sugarcane output is pegged at 335.3 mn tn, down by 6.2% compared to 357.6 mn tn last year. Despite of higher acreage, the producers body has estimated next year’s sugar output lower at 24 mn tn, down by 2mn tn compared to the current year. Industry body ISMA has estimated 6 mn tn stocks for the new season beginning October 01, 2012 compared to 5.5 mn tn year ago. India may export 2.5-3 mn tn sugar in 2012-13. With the opening stocks of 6 mn tn, domestic Sugar supplies are estimated at 30mn tn against the domestic consumption of around 22.523 mln tn for 2012-13.

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Contract Sugar Dec NCDEX Futures Unit Rs./qtl Support

valid for Nov 26, 2012 Resistance 3325-3337

Global Sugar Updates
Sugar output in Brazil jumped 57% during the first fortnight of October. Thus, sugar output in brazil which was lower compared to last year since the beginning of the crushing season in May, is now up marginally by 0.1% at 29.3 mn tn. Brazil has exported only 15.59 million tons of sugar this year till October which was 17.17 million tons, raw value, last year same period. The International Sugar Organization said it expected a global sugar surplus of 5.86 million tonnes in the season running from October 2012 to September 2013, up from the prior season's surplus of 5.19 million tonnes. The ISO said the stocks/consumption ratio could rise to around 40 percent in 2012/13, from 37.6 percent in 2011/12. (Source: Reuters)

3282-3293

Outlook
Sugar prices may trade sideways with upward on market talks that government will give mills flexibility in selling sugar in the open market by releasing the quota for four months instead of one month. Any further delay in cane crushing in Maharashtra and UP may provide further support to the prices.

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Commodities Daily Report
Monday| November 26, 2012

Agricultural Commodities
Oilseeds
Soybean: Soybean Dec futures traded on a positive note and
settled higher by 0.8% yesterday on account of short coverings after the recent fall. Although arrivals have increased sharply post diwali, demand from solvent extractors is robust to meet the soy meal export commitments. Average daily arrivals have increased to 5.5 lakh bags compared to 1.5 lakh bags during Diwali period. Soy meal exports during October are down 49,840 tn in October, the seventh consecutive month of fall in the current fiscal year, from 223,594 tn a year ago. This is because; most export commitments were done for forward trade like Nov-Dec amid uncertainty over supplies in October. According to first advance estimates, Soybean output is pegged at 126.2 lakh tn for 2012-13.

Market Highlights
Unit Soybean Spot- NCDEX (Indore) Soybean- NCDEX Dec '12 Futures Ref Soy oil SpotNCDEX(Indore) Ref Soy oil- NCDEX Dec '12 Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl Rs/10 kgs Rs/10 kgs Last 3261 3273 735.9 725.7

as on Nov 24, 2012 % Change Prev day 0.59 0.94 0.79 1.15 WoW -0.46 1.46 3.83 3.12 MoM -0.76 -1.13 2.98 3.72 YoY 39.18 39.25 11.33 8.14

Source: Reuters

as on Nov 23, 2012 International Prices Soybean- CBOTNov'12 Futures Soybean Oil - CBOTDec'12 Futures Unit USc/ Bushel USc/lbs Last 1419 49.04 Prev day 0.75 1.05 WoW 1.19 3.33 MoM -8.66 -4.44
Source: Reuters

International Markets
CBOT soybean prices closed on a positive note on Friday after remaining closed for a holiday on Thursday taking cues of bullish economic data of China, the world's top soy buyer. As per Argentina's Agriculture Ministry weekly crop progress report, farmers have planted 31 percent of the estimated acreage for soybean to 5.921 million hectares, down 13 percent from the previous year. The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) reported the U.S. soybean crush for October at 153.536 million bushels, the largest monthly figure since January 2010 and the highest for October since 2009. According to the USDA November monthly report, The U.S. Department of Agriculture on Friday raised its estimate for soybean production by 4% from its forecast last month, saying that rainfall late in the growing season softened the impact of the U.S. drought. Brazil's government on 8 Nov 2012 edged up its forecast for a record 2012/13 soybean crop to between 80.1 and 83 mn tn.
th

YoY 23.05 -3.43

Crude Palm Oil

as on Nov 24, 2012 % Change Prev day WoW -1.43 0.35 -3.94 -1.01

Unit
CPO-Bursa Malaysia – Dec '12 Contract CPO-MCX- Nov '12 Futures

Last 2267 433.4

MoM -5.70 1.12

YoY -28.82 -16.41

MYR/Tonne Rs/10 kg

Source: Reuters

RM Seed
Unit RM Seed SpotNCDEX (Jaipur) RM Seed- NCDEX Dec'12 Futures Rs/100 kgs Rs/100 kgs Last 4288 4161 Prev day 0.88 -0.76

as on Nov 24, 2012 WoW -2.56 -2.16 MoM -1.44 -2.83
Source: Reuters

YoY 33.05 23.69

Refined Soy Oil: Ref soy oil and MCX CPO traded on a positive
note due to increasing demand for the edible oil. Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for Nov. 1-20 fell 3.8 percent to 1,010,417 tonnes compared with 1,050,548 tonnes shipped during Oct. 1-20According to latest data from SEA, total vegetable oil imports in September were 993,912 tn, up from 897,018 tn in the previous month. As per MPOB’s latest report, Malaysia's September palm oil stocks rose 17 percent to record high 2.48 million tons compared to previous month.

Technical Chart –Soybean

NCDEX Dec contract

Rape/mustard Seed: Rm seed futures settled lower by 0.8% as
prospects of better sowing is seen exerting pressure on the prices. rd Rabi oilseeds sowing as on 23 November is reported up at 61.28 lakh ha as compared to 58.58 lakh ha in the same period last year. So far, mustard/rapeseed has been covered on 52.2 lh up from last season’s 50.7 lh. MSP for Mustard seed is increased by 20% from Rs 2500/Quintal to Rs 3000/Quintal for 2012-13 season.

Source: Telequote

Outlook
Edible oil complex may recover and trade on positive note on account of firm demand from solvent extractors coupled with firm international market. Also, higher crushing led by robust demand soy meal in the domestic as well as global markets may restrict a downside.

Technical Outlook
Contract Soy Oil Dec NCDEX Futures Soybean NCDEX Dec Futures RM Seed NCDEX Dec Futures CPO MCX Nov Futures Unit Rs./qtl Rs./qtl Rs./qtl Rs./qtl

valid for Nov 26, 2012 Support 716-721 3208-3236 4065-4100 432-437 Resistance 733-737 3312-3345 4197-4228 445-449

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Commodities Daily Report
Monday| November 26, 2012

Agricultural Commodities
Black Pepper
Pepper spot as well as futures traded on a negative note last due to skepticism over reports that FMC has launched probe into complaints against pepper market movement. However, prices in the Futures recovered from lower levels due to winter demand. Prices have also corrected on expectations of better output in the domestic as well as the international markets. Farmers are trying to liquidate their stocks ahead of the commencement of arrivals of the fresh crop. Exports demand for Indian pepper in the international markets remains weak due to huge price parity. The Spot as well as the Futures settled 3.356% and 1.01% lower w-o-w. Pepper prices in the international market are being quoted at $7,400/tn(C&F) while Vietnam was offering Austa at $7,000/tn, Brazil Austa at $6,700/tn, and Indonesia Austa at $6,500/tn (FOB).

Market Highlights
Unit Pepper SpotNCDEX (Kochi) Pepper- NCDEX Dec '12 Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl Last 38690 38355 % Change Prev day 0.16 -0.36

as on Nov 24, 2012 WoW -3.56 -3.16 MoM -9.31 -12.59 YoY 8.99 4.01

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart – Black Pepper

NCDEX Dec contract

Exports
According to Spices Board of India, exports of pepper in April 2012 fell by 47% and stood at 1,200 tonnes as compared to 2,266 tonnes in April 2011. India imported 1,848 tonnes of pepper till March 2012 and has become the third country to import such large quantity after UAE and Singapore. (Source: Agriwatch) According to Vietnam Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) exports of black pepper in 2012 are forecasted at around 1,25,000 tonnes. Exports of Pepper from Vietnam during January till September 2012 is estimated around 80,433 mt, higher by 4.3% in volume and 31.7% in value compared to corresponding year last year. Exports of Pepper from Brazil during January till May 2012 are estimated around 13369 mt. (Source: Peppertradeboard).
Source: Telequote

Pepper imports by U.S. the largest consumer of the spice declined 14.8% in the first 2 months of the year (2012) to 8810 tn as compared to 10344 tn in the same period previous year. Imports of Pepper in the month of February declined by 16.8% to 3999 tn as compared to 4811 tn in the month of January 2012. Exports from Indonesia posted significant decrease of 42% as compared to previous year. Exports stood at 36,500 tonnes as compared to 62,599 tonnes in the last year. During May 2012 Brazil exported 1,705 tonnes of pepper as against 1600 tn in May 2011.

Technical Outlook
Contract Black Pepper NCDEX Dec Futures Unit Rs/qtl

valid for Nov 26, 2012 Support 37680-38010 Resistance 38690-38980

Production and Arrivals
The arrivals in the spot market were reported at 20 tonnes while offtakes were 20 tonnes on Saturday. As per IPC, Global pepper production in 2012 is projected at 3.27 lk tn, up by 12.7% compared with 2.98 lk tn in 2011. Indonesian pepper output Is expected to rise by 24% and in Vietnam by 10%. According to previous estimates, report pepper output in Vietnam is estimated to be 1.35 lakh tonne as compared to 1.10 lakh tonne estimated early in the beginning of year (2012). Brazil is also expected to produce 22,000 tn this year. Domestic consumption of Pepper in the world is expected to grow by 3.03% to 1.25 lakh tonnes while exports are likely to grow by 1.48% to 2.46 lakh tonnes in 2012. (Source: Pepper trade board) On the other hand production of pepper in India in 2011-12 is expected to decline further by 5% to 43 thousand tonnes as compared to 48 thousand tonnes in the last year. Production is lowest in a decade. Currently, pepper is in the fruit formation stage in Kerala.

Outlook
Pepper is expected to trade sideways with a negative bias today. Reports that FMC is probing into complaints against price movement may pressurize prices. Liquidation pressure from farmers as well as low export demand may pressurize prices. However, festive season as well as winter demand may support prices at lower levels.

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Commodities Daily Report
Monday| November 26, 2012

Agricultural Commodities
Jeera
Jeera Futures traded on a negative note last week tracking the ongoing sowing of the crop. The sowing is expected to gain momentum in the coming days, and have pressurized prices. Higher stocks for delivery on the exchange warehouses have also pressurized prices. However, export as well as demand has supported prices in the spot markets. Sowing in Gujarat is currently lower by 15-20%. Festive demand is also expected to improve. Exporters have been buying due to tensions between Syria and Turkey. The spot settled 0.53% higher while the Futures settled 1.6% lower w-o-w. According to markets sources about 75% exports target has already been achieved due to a supply crunch in the global markets. Supply concerns from Syria and Turkey still exists. Expectations are that export orders may still be diverted to India from the international markets due to lack of supplies from Syria on back of the ongoing civil war. Production in Syria and Turkey is being reported around 17,000 tonnes and around 4,000-5,000 tonnes, lesser than expectations. Jeera prices of Indian origin are being offered in the international market at $2,825 tn (c&f) while Syria and Turkey are not offering. Carryover stocks of Jeera in the domestic market is expected to be around 4-5 lakh bags lower by around 3 lakh bags last year.

Market Highlights
Unit Jeera SpotNCDEX(Unjha) Jeera- NCDEX Dec '12 Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl Last 15143 14583 Prev day -0.34 0.31

as on Nov 24, 2012 % Change WoW 0.53 1.18 MoM 0.77 0.57 YoY 6.91 4.59

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart – Jeera

NCDEX Dec contract

Production, Arrivals and Exports
Unjha markets witnessed arrivals of 9,000 bags, while off-takes stood at 9,000 bags on Saturday. Production of Jeera in 2011-12 is expected to be around 40 lakh bags as compared to 29 lakh bags in 2010-11 (each bag weighs 55 kgs). (Source: spot market traders). According to Spices Board of India, exports of Jeera in April 2012 stood at 2,500 tonnes as compared to 2,369 tonnes in April 2011, an increase of 6%.
Source: Telequote

Market Highlights
Prev day 0.00 -0.66

as on Nov 24, 2012 % Change

Unit Turmeric SpotNCDEX (N'zmbad) Turmeric- NCDEX Dec '12 Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl

Last 5100 5112

WoW 0.76 -3.91

MoM 3.53 -0.51

YoY -6.38 10.89

Outlook
Jeera futures are expected to trade downwards today. Prices may correct as farmers are liquidating their stocks for want of cash. Also higher stocks for delivery on the exchange warehouse may pressurize prices. However, sharp downside may be capped due to export demand. In the medium term (November-December 2012), prices are likely to stay firm as there are limited stocks with Syria and Turkey.

Technical Chart – Turmeric

NCDEX Dec contract

Turmeric
Turmeric Futures traded on a mixed note last week. Prices gained in the initial part of the week on reports that Turmeric Farmers’ Association of India have decided to fix their own Minimum Support Price at Rs. 10,000/qtl. However, weak overseas demand capped sharp gains and prices corrected sharply from higher levels. Turmeric has been sown in 0.58 lakh hectares in A.P as on 10/10/2012. Sowing is also reported 30-35% lower during the sowing period. The Spot settled 0.76% higher while the Futures settled 0.66% lower w-o-w. Production, Arrivals and Exports Arrivals in Erode and Nizamabad mandi stood at 4,500 bags and 1,000 bags respectively on Friday. Turmeric production in 2012-13 is expected around 50-60% lower compared to last year. Production in 2011-12 is projected at historical high of 90 lakh bags (1 bag= 70 kgs). According to Spices Board of India, exports of Turmeric in April 2012 increased by 1% at 7,300 tn as compared to 7,230 tn in April 2011. Outlook Turmeric prices are expected to trade sideways today. Prices may gain as farmers are unwilling to sell their stocks at lower prices and have set their own MSP at Rs. 10,000/qtl. However, low overseas demand may pressurize prices.

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Unit Jeera NCDEX Dec Futures Turmeric NCDEX Dec Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl

Valid for Nov 26, 2012
Support 14270-14400 5008-5050 Resistance 14720-14875 5152-5200

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Commodities Daily Report
Monday| November 26, 2012

Agricultural Commodities
Kapas
NCDEX Kapas futures underwent further losses and settled lower by 0.93% taking cues from the weak international market. Also improved arrivals coupled with dull demand supported the downside. As on 18th November 2012, 22.66 lakh bales of Cotton has arrived so far, down by 29% compared to last year 31.97 lakh bales during the same period. ICE cotton markets underwent huge losses and settled 3.52% lower on ongoing global cotton surplus concerns.

Market Highlights
Unit Rs/20 kgs Rs/Bale Last 959 16120

as on Nov 24, 2012 % Change Prev. day WoW -0.93 -1.13 -0.31 -0.43 MoM -3.57 -0.43 YoY #N/A -2.30

NCDEX Kapas Futures MCX Cotton Futures

Source: Reuters

International Prices
Cotton harvesting has commenced in US, in all 84% is harvested as compared to 75% a week ago, versus 85% same period a year ago. Cotton crop condition is 43% in Good/Excellent state compared to 29% th same period a year ago as on 20 Nov 2012.
ICE Cotton Cot look A Index Unit Usc/Lbs Last 69.83 81.35

as on Nov 23, 2012 % Change Prev day WoW -3.52 -3.08 0.00 0.00 MoM -3.91 0.00 YoY -23.52 -29.20

Domestic Production and Consumption
According to Cotton Advisory Board’s (CAB) latest estimates for 2012-13 season that commenced in October, domestic cotton production is pegged 334 lakh bales, down 5.6% from the previous year’s estimates of 353 lakh bales. Lower opening stocks coupled with estimated lower output will result in lower supplies this season at 374 lakh bales, a decline of 8.7% compared with last year’s 410.77 lakh bales. On the consumption front, domestic consumption is estimated higher at 270 lakh bales on the back of higher mill consumption. However, after witnessing record exports in 2011-12 season, Indian exports could witness significant fall this season on the back of lower availability along with unattractive domestic cotton prices. CAB estimates cotton exports at 70 lakh bales this season, compared with 128.8 lakh bales last year.

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart - Kapas

NCDEX April contract

Global Cotton Updates
The U.S. government has raised its 2012/13 forecast for global cotton inventory to above 80 million 480-pound bales for the first time due to larger-than-expected output in the United States, the world's third largest producer, and falling demand from China, the world's largest consumer. In its monthly crop report, the U.S. Department of Agriculture increased its estimate for 2012/13 ending stocks for a fourth straight month to a new all-time high of 80.27 million bales. Higher global ending stocks are seen capping the upside in the cotton prices this year too. However, downside is also limited as prices are again nearing its 12 year average price of 65 cents per pound. Markets will now take cues from the Chinese demand for cotton and trade policies of India with respect to cotton exports. In its November monthly demand supply report, the Agriculture Department (USDA) raised its cotton crop for 2012/13 cotton crop season to 17.45 mln bales (Prev 17.29) along with upward revision in end stocks 5.80 mln 480 pounds/bales (Prev 5.60). Exports were unchanged at 11.60 mln 480 pounds/bales.
Source: Telequote

Technical Chart - Cotton

MCX Nov contract

Source: Telequote

Outlook
Cotton prices might trade sideways with negative bias as arrival pressure is weighing on the prices. Also weak international market might exert downside pressure on the prices. However, no major downside is expected in the domestic markets as farmers will not sell their stocks at very low prices. Also, CCI procurement at MSP levels may support prices from falling sharply.

Technical Outlook
Contract Kapas NCDEX April Kapas MCX April Cotton MCX December Unit Rs/20 kgs Rs/20 kgs Rs/bale

valid for Nov 26, 2012 Support 932-945 937-952 15840-15980 Resistance 968-978 975-985 16230-16350

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