26 November 2012

Intellisys

Value Indicator – UK Main market

26 November 2012

Contents
Introduction...................................................................................................................... 3
Timing .......................................................................................................................... 3
Value ........................................................................................................................... 4
Conclusion .................................................................................................................... 4
How to use the report ....................................................................................................... 5
Over Valued ............................................................... 6
Aerospace & Defence
Automobiles & Parts
Banks

Under Valued ................................................................. 6
Over Valued ................................................................................ 6
Under Valued .......................................................................... 6
Under Valued .......................................................................... 6

Beverages
Chemicals

Construction & Building Materials
Electronics & Electrical Equipment

Over Valued ................................................ 7
Over Valued ............................................... 7

Under Valued .......................................................... 7
Over Valued .................................................................. 8

Engineering & Machinery
Food & Drug Stores

Under Valued ..................................................... 8
Food Producers & Processors
Under Valued ....................................................................... 8
General Retail
Over Valued ................................................................................. 8
Health

Household Goods & Textiles

Over Valued ...................................................... 9

Over Valued ........................................... 9
Information Technology & Hardware
Under Valued .............................................................................. 9
Insurance
Over Valued ................................................................. 9
Leisure & Hotels
Over Valued ..................................................................... 10
Over Valued ........................................................... 10

Life Assurance
Media & Entertainment
Mining

Under Valued ................................................................................ 10

Under Valued ............................................................................ 10
Over Valued ......................................... 11
Personal Care & Household Products
Over Valued .............................................. 11
Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology

Oil & Gas

Real Estate

Under Valued ........................................................................ 11

Software & Computer Services
Speciality & Other Finance
Support Services

Under Valued ................................................. 11
Over Valued ....................................................... 12
Over Valued ............................................................... 12

Over Valued .................................................... 13
Telecommunication Services
Over Valued ............................................................................ 13
Transport
Under Valued ............................................................................... 13
Utilities

DISCLAIMER ................................................................................................................... 14
RISK WARNING – Ratings and Targets ............................................................................. 15

©

Intelligent Analysis Limited www.intellisys.uk.com

Page 2 of 15

Intellisys

Value Indicator – UK Main market

26 November 2012

Introduction
The overriding purpose of this daily report is to provide users with a quick guide that will
identify those shares that merit their investment attention in an increasingly time critical and
information noisy trading environment.
The report is published daily and delivered to the subscriber’s personal email box, typically,
before the official open of the London Stock Markets.
Putting aside luck, Intellisys recognises that the timing and value of an investment are the
two primary drivers behind a successful portfolio performance.
Timing
Intellisys has invested considerably in identifying what it believes are the key factors that
influence investment timing. Having identified the key parameters, these have been
established as rules that reflect market dynamics and cut through the daily investment noise.
Through this discipline, Intellisys has removed the emotional and sentimental factors as well
as the daily pressures exerted upon primary stock promoters (analysts and traders) to find
stories for their investment meetings.
From an analysis of a year’s data for 40 stocks within Intellisys’ stock coverage, the trading
indicators appear to be, on average, about 77% accurate in identifying good trading points as
well as some 74% accurate for overall trend correlation.
The following chart provides an indication the accuracy scores for each of the 40 stocks
analysed.
Individual Stock Rating & Trend Accuracy Scores
120.0%

120.0%

110.0%

110.0%

100.0%

100.0%

90.0%

90.0%

80.0%

80.0%

70.0%

70.0%

60.0%

60.0%

50.0%

50.0%

40.0%

40.0%

30.0%

30.0%

20.0%

20.0%
1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40
Best Buy/Sell

Trend

Source: Intellisys

©

Intelligent Analysis Limited www.intellisys.uk.com

Page 3 of 15

Intellisys

Value Indicator – UK Main market

26 November 2012

Value
A similar discipline has been applied to the process of establishing ‘Target Indications’. On a
daily basis, Intellisys analyses as broad an array of historic data from not only the
Consolidated Income Statement but also the Balance Sheet and Cash Flow Statement and
then utilises this data within its proprietary valuation models.
Intellisys’ architect, Philip Morrish, has successfully applied these disciplines to his investment
research for the last 15+ years. Additionally, these investment valuation techniques lend
themselves to accurate cross-border analysis.
The resultant ‘Target’ is also discounted to a Net Present Value to make the ‘Target’ as
realistically valid as possible.
Nevertheless, Intellisys recognises that ‘Target Indication’ delivery is not only a function of
market levels but a management team’s ability to establish and maintain a value generating
operating environment set against a constantly changing global background.
The typical investment analyst’s approach to determining ‘target prices’ is to start with a
modest range of some 6 – 8 valuation measures and remove those that are not providing the
‘intuitive’ result. Intellysis’ approach is the opposite we use as many valuation methodologies
as possible.
Further, Intellisys recognises that some target Indications may appear strange or extreme.
However, subscribers should not dismiss these outcomes but use them as starting points to
challenge their established or perceived valuation opinion of a stock.
In short, this disciplined approach provides an investment reality check to assist investors
from ‘falling in love’ with a stock or becoming mesmerised by ‘management cults’.
Conclusion
No investment methodology is 100% successful and like all trading and investment systems
active position monitoring is critical for maximised investment performance.
Therefore, Intellisys recommends that its products should be used in conjunction with, and
not separate from subscriber’s existing investment systems as well as discussing investment
options with their financial advisers.

Philip Morrish (philip.morrish@intellisys.uk.com)
RISK WARNING – Ratings and Targets
Intellisys does not make personal recommendations. The information in this publication is
provided solely to enable you to make your own investment decisions.
If you are unsure about dealing in shares and other equity investments, you should contact
your financial adviser as these types of investments may not be suitable for everyone.
The value of stocks and shares, and the income from them, can fall as well as rise and you
may not get back the full amount you originally invested. If denominated in a foreign
currency, fluctuations in the exchange rate will also affect the value of stocks and shares and
the income from them. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance.

©

Intelligent Analysis Limited www.intellisys.uk.com

Page 4 of 15

Intellisys

Value Indicator – UK Main market

26 November 2012

How to use the report
This daily report is typically available for download as a PDF from 7am - well in advance of the market’s
open - and is based upon previous day’s closing prices.
We have kept the report deliberately simple for quick reading and identification of the shares most likely to
be active as can be seen from the following:

Longer term action based
upon implied target price
Today’s action
Sector

Implied target price
based upon 49
valuation metrics

Closing price

General Retail
Stock
ASHLEY(LAURA) HOLDINGS
BROWN (N) GROUP
BURBERRY GROUP
CARPETRIGHT

Price
29.00
266.70
1136.00
675.00

12M Lo
18.50
222.40
1000.00
375.00

12M Hi
29.50
282.70
1586.00
728.50

ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral

21.16
6.36

9.36
2.20

21.69
6.55

Neutral
Neutral

FRENCH CONNECTN.GROUP
HALFORDS GROUP
JJB SPORTS SUSP - 24/09/12

23.50
324.70
0.40

19.50
189.00
0.24

82.00
342.30
17.00

Neutral
Neutral
Neutral

JD SPORTS FASHION

731.00

570.00

863.00

Neutral

57.25
269.80
377.90
55.00
212.00
3576.00
951.50
49.25

38.00
237.20
302.70
31.25
127.30
2540.00
633.00
21.50

110.60
313.80
389.50
55.00
227.00
3644.00
1017.00
51.75

Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral

DIXONS RETAIL
FINDEL

DARTY
KINGFISHER
MARKS & SPENCER GROUP
MOSS BROTHERS GROUP
MOTHERCARE
NEXT
TED BAKER
TOPPS TILES

Company

Latest 12 month
Hi/Lo for the
share price

LT Rec
Neutral
Buy
Sell
Sell
Strong
Buy
Sell
Strong
Buy
Buy
Sell
Strong
Buy
Strong
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Sell
Sell
Sell
Sell

Target
30
298
739
268

Beta
0.72
0.52
1.30
0.97

38
4

1.56
0.94

112
415
-62

1.05
0.67
0.88

1341

0.47

321
365
448
61
97
2798
542
29

1.28
0.97
0.74
1.04
0.44
0.72
0.56
1.31

ßeta measures a
share’s
volatility/risk
relative to market

(see below)

Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility or risk relative to its market. The market has a beta of
1.0 and individual shares are attributed a beta according to how much they deviate from the
market. This can be summarised as:

©

ßeta <1.0

Share should move by less than market (i.e., less risk/lower reward)

ßeta =1.0

Share should move in line with the market

ßeta >1.0

Share should move by more than market (i.e., higher risk/higher reward)

Intelligent Analysis Limited www.intellisys.uk.com

Page 5 of 15

Intellisys

Value Indicator – UK Main market

Over Valued

Aerospace & Defence
Stock
BAE SYSTEMS
C HEMRING GROUP
C OBHAM
MEGGITT
ROLLS-ROYC E HOLDINGS
SMITHS GROUP
ULTRA ELEC TRONIC S HDG.

Price 12M Lo
310.30 251.40
231.70 217.00
204.30 165.90
381.80 337.30
875.00 654.47
1062.00 880.00
1518.00 1400.00

12M Hi
363.60
460.00
239.50
414.90
882.08
1113.00
1780.00

ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell

Price 12M Lo
218.40 168.90
420.60 284.10
74.75
48.00
14.25
6.80

12M Hi
237.20
420.60
79.00
16.25

ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Buy
Neutral Strong Buy

Price 12M Lo
254.20 150.55
625.90 466.85
46.40
22.40
294.00 179.70
1437.50 1228.50

12M Hi
256.75
626.10
46.52
294.00
1662.50

ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy
Sell
Buy
Sell
Sell
Neutral
Sell

Price 12M Lo
478.00 348.00
1877.50 1295.50
2834.00 2096.00

12M Hi
481.60
1877.50
2868.50

©

Beta
1.96
1.45
1.32
1.14

Target
145
992
58
-145
1218

Beta
1.89
1.17
1.86
1.37
1.68

ST Rec
Neutral
Sell
Neutral

LT Rec
Neutral
Sell
Buy

Target
524
1597
3397

Beta
0.49
0.54
1.00

Under Valued

Chemicals
Stock
C RODA INTERNATIONAL
ELEMENTIS
JOHNSON MATTHEY
VIC TREX
YULE C ATTO
ZOTEFOAMS

Target
208
403
83
25

Under Valued

Beverages
Stock
BARR (AG)
DIAGEO
SABMILLER

Beta
0.68
0.55
0.87
1.33
1.09
0.70
0.58

Over Valued

Banks
Stock
BARC LAYS
HSBC HDG. (ORD $0.50)
LLOYDS BANKING GROUP
ROYAL BANK OF SC TL.GP.
STANDARD C HARTERED

Target
484
497
235
320
568
840
1276

Under Valued

Automobiles & Parts
Stock
GKN
INC HC APE
LOOKERS
PENDRAGON

26 November 2012

Price
2332.00
216.10
2326.00
1540.00
170.30
190.00

12M Lo
1688.00
129.00
1724.40
1070.00
127.40
109.00

12M Hi
2501.00
240.30
2573.00
1540.00
251.00
225.00

Intelligent Analysis Limited www.intellisys.uk.com

ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Buy
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Neutral

Target
3811
299
6114
1665
310
183

Page 6 of 15

Beta
1.06
1.05
1.44
1.16
1.23
0.99

Intellisys

Value Indicator – UK Main market

Over Valued

Construction & Building Materials
Stock
BALFOUR BEATTY
BARRATT DEVELOPMENTS
BELLWAY
BERKELEY GROUP HDG.(THE)
BOVIS HOMES GROUP
C ARILLION
C LARKE (T)
C OSTAIN GROUP
GALLIFORD TRY
KELLER
KIER GROUP
LOW & BONAR
MARSHALLS
MORGAN SINDALL GROUP
PERSIMMON
REDROW
SIG
TAYLOR WIMPEY
TRAVIS PERKINS
WOLSELEY

Price
249.90
188.10
967.50
1587.00
514.50
293.90
45.50
234.75
695.50
613.50
1162.00
51.25
97.50
540.00
770.50
155.70
108.30
57.20
1149.00
2815.00

12M Lo
218.90
87.30
660.00
1177.00
399.30
235.50
35.50
180.50
441.70
239.25
1095.00
38.00
76.00
512.00
446.20
103.50
76.95
34.86
755.00
1732.00

12M Hi
320.80
194.90
1029.00
1597.00
525.00
344.00
54.50
249.50
753.00
627.50
1489.00
66.50
103.62
725.00
815.50
163.00
123.20
63.10
1149.00
2815.00

Price 12M Lo
1092.00 685.00
547.00 436.50
113.00
99.25
223.00 181.60
226.00 128.50
1303.00 905.50
1777.00 800.00
1861.00 1134.00
0.08
0.08
134.00 114.00
273.00 185.00

12M Hi
1244.00
670.00
149.50
257.00
243.90
1390.00
1838.00
1902.00
0.22
203.50
275.00

©

Target
-40
30
109
3045
65
-210
20
451
-96
272
862
79
39
85
232
31
133
-7
479
486

Beta
0.83
1.51
1.09
0.69
1.13
1.12
0.77
0.64
1.05
1.29
1.00
1.10
1.31
0.87
1.17
1.04
1.67
1.58
1.93
1.46

ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell

Target
618
752
196
274
87
948
1960
1738
0
312
183

Beta
0.76
1.18
1.30
1.41
2.13
0.99
1.27
1.46
0.83
1.60
1.12

Under Valued

Engineering & Machinery
Stock
AGA RANGEMASTER GROUP
BODYC OTE
C ASTINGS
C OOKSON GROUP
FENNER
HALMA
HILL & SMITH
IMI
METALRAX GROUP
MORGAN C RUC IBLE
ROTORK
SENIOR
SEVERFIELD-ROWEN
SPIRAX-SARC O
VITEC GROUP
WEIR GROUP

ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Sell
Sell
Neutral
Sell

Over Valued

Electronics & Electrical Equipment
Stock
DIALIGHT
DOMINO PRINTING SC IENC ES
E2V TEC HNOLOGIES
INVENSYS
LAIRD
OXFORD INSTRUMENTS
RENISHAW
SPEC TRIS
BIOME TEC HNOLOGIES
TT ELEC TRONIC S
XAAR

26 November 2012

Price
62.63
393.90
302.50
589.50
383.50
435.00
390.50
1017.00
4.50
245.10
2430.00
191.90
93.25
2170.00
663.00
1785.00

12M Lo
54.25
246.10
253.00
439.30
329.30
312.30
235.00
711.00
3.88
220.30
1647.00
157.90
92.50
1743.00
547.00
1397.00

12M Hi
92.00
437.10
358.50
747.50
483.70
448.50
403.75
1022.00
9.00
360.00
2435.00
213.00
219.50
2334.00
740.00
2236.00

Intelligent Analysis Limited www.intellisys.uk.com

ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Buy
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral

Target
128
465
612
717
372
340
322
1157
4
470
1718
200
82
1949
572
1762

Page 7 of 15

Beta
1.25
1.58
0.98
2.22
1.45
0.76
1.36
1.40
0.84
1.80
1.02
1.70
1.00
0.84
1.46
1.39

Intellisys

Value Indicator – UK Main market

Over Valued

Food & Drug Stores
Stock
GREGGS
MORRISON(WM)SPMKTS.
SAINSBURY (J)
TESC O
THORNTONS

Price 12M Lo
480.60 457.00
261.70 256.20
333.60 283.20
318.00 297.05
29.75
9.50

12M Hi
558.00
328.00
361.10
411.25
38.00

ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell

Price 12M Lo
1450.00 1078.00
739.00 699.00
359.50 290.40
316.00 249.30
97.25
45.35
773.50 633.50
2375.00 1977.00

12M Hi
1451.00
858.00
361.10
341.20
180.00
773.50
2375.00

ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Buy

Price 12M Lo
27.00
18.63
354.40 222.40
1240.00 1000.00
661.00 375.00
26.01
9.55
8.85
2.47
23.50
19.50
344.10 189.00
729.50 570.00
50.00
38.00
280.70 237.20
380.70 302.70
55.75
31.25
300.00 148.70
3620.00 2573.00
980.00 633.00
47.00
21.50

12M Hi
29.50
358.10
1586.00
728.50
26.01
9.03
58.75
356.80
863.00
88.95
313.80
398.70
58.00
303.00
3650.00
1017.00
51.75

ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Buy
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell

©

Beta
0.48
0.42
0.67
0.71
0.84

Target
1141
1248
335
294
-144
903
3069

Beta
0.59
0.58
0.90
0.31
1.40
0.64
0.58

Target
30
318
877
246
36
3
100
442
1345
79
348
455
56
415
3316
583
31

Beta
0.72
0.54
1.31
0.97
1.57
1.13
1.05
0.70
0.48
1.27
0.97
0.74
1.04
0.46
0.72
0.56
1.31

Over Valued

Health
Stock
C ONSORT MEDIC AL
C ORIN GROUP
SMITH & NEPHEW

Target
614
205
230
280
21

Under Valued

General Retail
Stock
ASHLEY(LAURA) HOLDINGS
BROWN (N) GROUP
BURBERRY GROUP
C ARPETRIGHT
DIXONS RETAIL
FINDEL
FRENC H C ONNEC TN.GROUP
HALFORDS GROUP
JD SPORTS FASHION
DARTY
KINGFISHER
MARKS & SPENC ER GROUP
MOSS BROTHERS GROUP
MOTHERC ARE
NEXT
TED BAKER
TOPPS TILES

LT Rec
Buy
Sell
Sell
Sell
Sell

Under Valued

Food Producers & Processors
Stock
ASSOC IATED BRIT.FOODS
C RANSWIC K
DAIRY C REST
DEVRO
PREMIER FOODS
TATE & LYLE
UNILEVER (UK)

26 November 2012

Price 12M Lo
768.25 498.00
69.50
35.25
657.50 555.00

12M Hi
777.00
69.50
693.00

Intelligent Analysis Limited www.intellisys.uk.com

ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral

LT Rec
Sell
Neutral
Neutral

Target
635
68
709

Page 8 of 15

Beta
0.49
0.68
0.37

Intellisys

Value Indicator – UK Main market

Over Valued

Household Goods & Textiles
Stock
GAMES WORKSHOP
HEADLAM GROUP
HORNBY

Price 12M Lo
675.50 405.00
314.75 242.50
62.50
55.25

12M Hi
720.50
319.75
139.75

ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral

Price 12M Lo
742.50 469.00
349.60 158.00
37.00
16.25
418.60 411.20
152.40 105.80
192.50
96.00

12M Hi
747.00
355.60
47.25
717.00
174.00
230.00

ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell

Price 12M Lo
1098.00 787.00
385.30 304.10
175.30 125.10
476.50 369.50
481.10 359.00
758.00 635.00
114.70
97.65
350.50 310.00

12M Hi
1231.00
405.00
177.00
489.60
489.40
790.00
121.50
388.50

©

Beta
0.41
0.94
0.73

Target
434
728
39
382
528
-247

Beta
0.77
1.21
0.79
1.08
0.97
1.00

ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral

LT Rec
Sell
Sell
Strong Buy
Buy
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Strong Buy

Target
434
-2430
1303
618
1785
2705
1436
1676

Beta
0.56
0.49
0.57
0.34
0.49
0.31
0.43
0.48

Over Valued

Leisure & Hotels
Stock
C ARNIVAL
ENTERPRISE INNS
TUI TRAVEL
FULLER SMITH 'A'
GREENE KING
LADBROKES
IC TL.HTLS.GP.
MILLENNIUM & C PTH.HTLS.
MITC HELLS & BUTLERS
BWIN PARTY DIGITAL ENTM.
PUNC H TAVERNS
RANK GROUP
RESTAURANT GROUP
WETHERSPOON (JD)
WHITBREAD
WILLIAM HILL
MARSTON'S

Target
657
261
92

Under Valued

Insurance
Stock
ADMIRAL GROUP
AMLIN
BEAZLEY
C ATLIN GROUP
HISC OX
JARDINE LLOYD THOMPSON
RSA INSURANC E GROUP
NOVAE GROUP

LT Rec
Neutral
Sell
Buy

Over Valued

Information Technology & Hardware
Stock
ARM HOLDINGS
C SR
FILTRONIC
IMAGINATION TEC HNOLOGIES
SPIRENT C OMMUNIC ATIONS
WOLFSON MIC ROELEC TRONIC S

26 November 2012

Price
2537.00
80.00
262.90
749.50
604.50
194.60
1691.00
466.90
327.70
113.10
6.50
149.80
390.30
533.50
2355.00
338.90
123.30

12M Lo
1841.00
26.50
148.90
657.25
441.50
120.70
1006.17
384.10
215.60
91.90
5.61
111.00
269.20
371.30
1508.00
183.30
88.10

12M Hi
2544.00
82.00
262.90
798.00
625.00
194.60
1727.01
518.00
337.00
174.00
12.50
154.30
391.00
536.50
2456.00
357.50
127.70

Intelligent Analysis Limited www.intellisys.uk.com

ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy

Target
4892
45
751
747
623
170
1432
609
371
30
-199
456
307
668
1888
272
160

Page 9 of 15

Beta
1.00
1.66
1.00
0.41
0.91
0.97
1.20
1.37
1.07
1.25
1.22
0.94
0.87
0.79
1.02
0.94
1.22

Intellisys

Value Indicator – UK Main market

26 November 2012
Over Valued

Life Assurance
Stock
AVIVA
C HESNARA
LEGAL & GENERAL
OLD MUTUAL
PRUDENTIAL
ST.JAMES'S PLAC E

Price 12M Lo
346.00 255.30
190.25 155.25
143.10
96.50
171.10 105.26
889.00 559.50
398.60 303.40

12M Hi
382.60
207.50
144.20
177.70
889.00
400.50

ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Sell
Sell
Neutral
Sell

Over Valued

Media & Entertainment
Stock
AEGIS GROUP
BLOOMSBURY PBL.
BRITISH SKY BC AST.GROUP
C ENTAUR MEDIA
DAILY MAIL 'A'
EUROMONEY INSTL.INVESTOR
INFORMA
ITE GROUP
ITV
JOHNSTON PRESS
PEARSON
PHOTO-ME INTL.
PINEWOOD SHEPPERTON
THOMSON REUTERS
STV GROUP
ST.IVES
TRINITY MIRROR
UBM
WILMINGTON GROUP
WPP
HIBU

Price 12M Lo
235.30 122.30
119.00
91.25
777.50 635.50
49.63
28.50
519.50 363.50
752.00 618.50
403.80 330.20
196.00 175.10
96.75
59.25
12.75
4.60
1189.00 1069.00
51.00
36.25
273.50 209.87
27.31
26.21
102.25
76.25
101.50
67.50
81.50
25.50
733.00 448.00
141.25
78.50
848.00 616.50
0.28
0.27

12M Hi
237.80
146.50
777.50
51.75
524.00
828.00
451.00
240.60
96.75
13.25
1294.00
56.50
377.50
30.02
119.50
106.00
81.50
733.00
143.00
880.00
6.27

ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral

Price
1719.00
244.50
1261.00
1945.50
291.40
6655.00
3006.50
4.57

12M Lo
1664.00
221.25
991.00
1681.00
240.84
4596.00
2715.50
3.75
832.50
1020.00 785.80

12M Hi
2910.00
340.00
1399.00
2206.50
599.98
7775.00
3988.00
34.00
1502.00
1283.00

ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral

©

Target
-310
805
69
2001
1746
88
304
519
763
248
1375
477
372
522
-245
1847
564
269
513
549
22

Beta
1.31
0.46
0.57
1.01
1.07
0.98
1.58
1.43
1.56
1.28
0.66
0.83
0.24
0.54
0.81
1.44
1.60
1.35
0.90
1.31
1.11

LT Rec
Strong Buy
Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Sell
Buy
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Buy

Target
3115
286
980
3620
625
3064
3623
141
2406
1127

Beta
1.71
1.01
1.45
1.43
1.93
0.28
1.42
0.92
2.13
1.77

Under Valued

Oil & Gas
Stock
BG GROUP
BP
C AIRN ENERGY
FORTUNE OIL
HUNTING
JKX OIL & GAS
PREMIER OIL
ROYAL DUTC H SHELL B
SOC O INTERNATIONAL
TULLOW OIL
WOOD GROUP (JOHN)

LT Rec
Sell
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Sell
Sell
Strong Buy
Buy
Strong Buy
Buy
Strong Buy
Buy
Strong Buy
Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Neutral
Buy
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Sell

Under Valued

Mining
Stock
ANGLO AMERIC AN
ANGLO PAC IFIC GROUP
ANTOFAGASTA
BHP BILLITON
LONMIN
RANDGOLD RESOURC ES
RIO TINTO
UK C OAL
VEDANTA RESOURC ES
XSTRATA

Target
990
298
243
148
783
365

Price
1076.50
435.50
266.50
8.31
770.50
79.00
339.10
2154.50
368.10
1393.00
810.00

12M Lo
1000.50
391.95
248.20
7.86
620.00
73.00
322.30
2039.00
254.90
1236.00
591.00

12M Hi
1547.00
504.60
360.00
12.13
968.00
187.75
449.70
2489.00
373.40
1601.00
875.50

Intelligent Analysis Limited www.intellisys.uk.com

ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral

LT Rec
Buy
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Sell
Sell
Neutral

Target
1216
1522
-18
14
499
295
286
10739
253
803
793

Page 10 of 15

Beta
0.76
1.06
1.35
0.89
1.28
1.45
1.38
0.91
0.53
1.08
1.36

Beta
1.29
0.67
1.69
1.63
1.72
0.86

Intellisys

Value Indicator – UK Main market

26 November 2012
Over Valued

Personal Care & Household Products
Stock
MC BRIDE
PZ C USSONS
REC KITT BENC KISER GROUP

Price 12M Lo
138.00 102.70
356.50 285.00
3862.00 3125.00

12M Hi
140.00
359.40
3862.00

ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral

Price
3.44
2890.50
353.90
577.50
1347.00
2.40
9.63
1797.00
68.50
22.63

12M Lo
2.54
2591.00
273.20
418.33
1317.50
2.05
5.88
1727.00
31.00
18.75

12M Hi
4.00
3111.50
423.00
622.00
1507.50
5.80
12.75
2300.00
101.50
27.38

ST Rec
Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Buy
Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral

Price 12M Lo
328.00 238.00
535.00 444.00
26.25
22.75
665.00 520.00
2055.00 1495.00
169.00 121.75
112.30
83.10
454.60 312.90
464.00 345.20
196.50 164.00
795.00 612.00
343.50 288.90
136.00 108.50
360.00 280.25
54.00
32.50
424.80 275.00
545.00 459.70
227.50 195.00
209.90 103.50
183.25 130.00
260.70 154.10
1.43
1.43
303.30 213.25

12M Hi
352.10
549.50
34.25
740.00
2115.00
176.00
116.00
477.70
483.40
206.00
821.00
354.20
144.00
390.00
56.75
438.00
551.00
259.20
220.00
189.50
284.10
4.13
310.00

©

Target
34
4820
407
2757
-131
13
4
1516
267
110

Beta
1.04
0.49
0.64
0.28
0.49
0.71
0.94
0.67
0.71
0.86

Price 12M Lo
137.20
74.00
2042.00 1428.00
385.50 292.40
280.00 233.50
22.25
16.75
587.50 362.96
160.00 135.00
78.75
58.00
1418.00 1275.00
307.70 247.70

ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral

LT Rec
Sell
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Sell
Sell
Strong Buy
Buy
Strong Buy
Buy
Strong Buy
Buy
Strong Buy
Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Neutral
Buy
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Strong Buy

Target
-310
805
69
2001
1746
88
304
519
763
248
1375
477
372
522
-245
1847
564
269
513
549
22
115
586

Beta
1.13
1.04
0.69
0.69
1.20
0.97
1.47
1.06
1.14
0.71
1.14
1.09
0.71
0.47
1.15
0.69
0.99
1.65
1.46
1.06
1.73
1.01
1.01

Under Valued

Software & Computer Services
Stock
ANITE
AVEVA GROUP
C OMPUTAC ENTER
KOFAX
INNOVATION GROUP
MIC RO FOC US INTL.
PHOENIX IT GROUP
RM
FIDESSA GROUP
SAGE GROUP

LT Rec
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Buy
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Sell
Sell
Strong Buy
Strong Buy

Under Valued

Real Estate
Stock
BIG YELLOW GROUP
BRITISH LAND
C APITAL & REGIONAL
C LS HOLDINGS
DERWENT LONDON
DEVELOPMENT SEC S.
GRAINGER
GREAT PORTLAND ESTATES
HAMMERSON
HELIC AL BAR
LAND SEC URITIES GROUP
C APITAL SHOPC TS.GROUP
MC KAY SEC URITIES
MUC KLOW (A & J) GROUP
QUINTAIN ESTATES & DEV.
SAVILLS
SHAFTESBURY
SEGRO
ST MODWEN PROPS.
TOWN C ENTRE SEC URITIES
UNITE GROUP
WARNER ESTATE
WORKSPAC E GROUP

Beta
0.85
0.71
0.35

Over Valued

Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology
Stock
ARK THERAPEUTIC S GP.
ASTRAZENEC A
BTG
DEC HRA PHARMAC EUTIC ALS
GLAXOSMITHKLINE
OXFORD BIOMEDIC A
PHYTOPHARM
SHIRE
SKYEPHARMA
VERNALIS

Target
249
306
3895

12M Hi
149.90
2074.00
461.90
314.00
23.00
595.50
231.75
93.50
1766.00
324.80

Intelligent Analysis Limited www.intellisys.uk.com

ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Neutral

Target
98
1053
1173
259
18
711
260
-66
1668
311

Page 11 of 15

Beta
0.89
1.41
1.04
1.13
0.86
0.82
0.89
0.53
0.81
0.74

Intellisys

Value Indicator – UK Main market

26 November 2012
Over Valued

Speciality & Other Finance
Stock
ABERDEEN ASSET MAN.
BREWIN DOLPHIN
C AMELLIA
C HARLES STANLEY GROUP
C HARLES TAYLOR
C LOSE BROTHERS GROUP
F&C ASSET MANAGEMENT
HELPHIRE GROUP
HENDERSON GROUP
IC AP
INTERMEDIATE C APITAL GP.
INVESTEC
LONDON STOC K EX.GROUP
MAN GROUP
RATHBONE BROTHERS
SC HRODERS
SC HRODERS NV

Price 12M Lo
12M Hi
342.70 183.30
342.70
178.10 118.00
184.60
9662.50 9175.00 10250.00
291.50 247.50
296.50
165.13 115.63
189.75
847.00 590.00
876.50
99.00
59.50
102.80
1.86
0.77
3.61
117.10
90.55
128.30
292.50 281.40
431.50
295.60 220.10
321.50
384.80 310.40
414.90
985.50 756.50 1105.00
77.60
63.25
152.50
1269.00 989.00 1373.00
1589.00 1166.00 1650.00
1290.00 966.00 1309.00

ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Sell Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy

©

Beta
1.12
0.77
0.81
0.96
0.71
0.87
0.90
0.66
1.46
1.04
1.61
1.55
1.13
1.29
0.77
1.34
1.28

Over Valued

Support Services
Stock
AC AL
AGGREKO
AMEC
ASHTEAD GROUP
BABC OC K INTL.
BRITISH POLYTHENE INDS.
BUNZL
UK MAIL GROUP
C APITA
C OMMUNISIS
C OMPASS GROUP
BERENDSEN
DE LA RUE
DIGNITY
DIPLOMA
ELEC TROC OMP.
FILTRONA
G4S
HAYS
HOMESERVE
INTERSERVE
INTERTEK GROUP
JOHNSON SERVIC E GROUP
MANAGEMENT C NSL.GP.
MENZIES (JOHN)
MIC HAEL PAGE INTL.
MITIE GROUP
OFFIC E2OFFIC E
PAYPOINT
PREMIER FARNELL
REGUS
RENTOKIL INITIAL
REXAM
RIC ARDO
ROBERT WALTERS
RPC GROUP
RPS GROUP
SERC O GROUP
SHANKS GROUP
SPEEDY HIRE
TRIBAL GROUP
TRIFAST
VP
WYG

Target
88
95
9184
183
110
257
96
111
54
206
110
23
1527
93
983
1047
4157

Price 12M Lo
161.00 158.50
2193.00 1711.00
1036.00 838.00
390.00 158.90
976.00 673.50
387.00 317.00
1065.00 786.50
295.00 192.25
735.00 602.00
38.50
23.75
716.00 545.50
581.50 412.00
991.00 861.50
987.00 755.50
478.30 303.60
212.60 187.50
575.00 369.80
247.10 231.50
77.65
58.85
240.90 137.50
352.30 270.10
2960.00 1839.00
34.25
25.25
22.88
21.25
591.00 505.00
353.00 323.00
269.60 235.80
121.00 120.50
857.00 475.00
170.70 153.20
97.10
77.80
86.95
58.20
439.60 329.80
363.75 304.50
191.00 158.25
424.50 316.50
210.70 173.20
555.50 458.00
81.55
75.80
33.75
18.50
97.63
40.50
44.00
36.63
336.50 191.00
61.00
42.00

12M Hi
219.50
2400.00
1172.00
392.70
992.00
410.50
1167.00
295.00
781.50
41.00
727.00
589.00
1075.00
987.00
497.90
263.00
586.00
292.10
92.50
310.00
392.80
2960.00
35.00
39.50
652.00
497.00
300.80
163.75
876.50
228.80
117.50
89.90
461.40
391.00
264.63
447.00
256.60
602.00
113.00
34.50
98.50
49.50
354.88
62.50

Intelligent Analysis Limited www.intellisys.uk.com

ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell

LT Rec
Strong Buy
Sell
Sell
Sell
Sell
Strong Buy
Sell
Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Sell
Buy
Sell
Sell
Sell
Buy
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Sell
Neutral
Strong Buy
Sell
Buy
Sell
Sell
Buy
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Strong Buy
Buy
Sell
Buy
Strong Buy
Strong Buy

Target
259
1099
900
260
546
659
677
375
421
60
528
812
524
636
346
266
295
236
97
415
578
1197
78
45
1082
268
284
196
589
226
91
44
505
394
260
441
204
474
137
43
42
50
515
153

Page 12 of 15

Beta
0.88
1.09
1.07
1.61
0.45
0.78
0.52
0.31
0.50
0.77
0.70
1.02
#NA
0.17
0.98
1.04
1.11
0.58
1.09
0.91
1.26
0.82
1.19
0.71
1.41
1.42
0.56
0.42
0.72
1.29
1.44
1.31
0.88
0.83
1.27
0.80
1.55
0.58
1.46
1.28
0.52
0.94
0.90
0.78

Intellisys

Value Indicator – UK Main market

26 November 2012
Over Valued

Telecommunication Services
Stock
BT GROUP
C ABLE & WIRELESS C OMMS.
INMARSAT
KC OM GROUP
TELEC OM PLUS
VODAFONE GROUP

Price 12M Lo
226.70 176.50
35.29
27.28
580.50 389.30
71.50
65.75
891.50 612.00
158.70 157.80

12M Hi
236.80
45.16
602.00
85.20
893.50
191.25

ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral
Buy
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell

Price 12M Lo
202.80 164.70
357.50 288.00
1170.00 1050.00
695.50 353.90
181.30 175.70
783.50 460.00
1230.00 1086.00
170.80 167.60
250.50 159.60
275.40 230.40
74.00
31.00

12M Hi
218.80
425.00
1390.00
695.50
344.00
801.00
1412.00
252.00
266.75
297.20
91.75

ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Sell

©

Target
148
357
1215
424
387
285
1350
178
460
284
-26

Beta
1.32
0.99
0.79
0.79
1.00
0.83
0.95
1.35
1.43
0.94
0.90

Under Valued

Utilities
Stock
C ENTRIC A
NATIONAL GRID
PENNON GROUP
SSE
SEVERN TRENT
UNITED UTILITIES GROUP

Beta
0.90
0.67
0.54
1.28
0.03
0.53

Over Valued

Transport
Stock
BBA AVIATION
BRAEMAR SHIPPING SVS.
C LARKSON
EASYJET
FIRST GROUP
FISHER(JAMES)& SONS
GO-AHEAD GROUP
NATIONAL EXPRESS
NORTHGATE
STAGEC OAC H GROUP
WINC ANTON

Target
265
66
490
104
584
134

Price 12M Lo
322.20 278.80
711.00 597.50
605.00 598.00
1406.00 1209.00
1571.00 1454.00
672.50 589.00

12M Hi
341.30
711.00
796.00
1461.00
1796.00
736.00

Intelligent Analysis Limited www.intellisys.uk.com

ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral

LT Rec
Buy
Neutral
Buy
Buy
Sell
Sell

Target
455
781
729
1642
1404
622

Page 13 of 15

Beta
0.47
0.52
0.54
0.44
0.34
0.49

Intellisys

Value Indicator – UK Main market

26 November 2012

DISCLAIMER
Intelligent Analysis Limited has prepared this report. Intellisys (“Intellisys”) is the trading name of
Intelligent Analysis Limited.
Intelligent Analysis Limited is a provider of financial research reports that indicate the possible value of
quoted company shares. The information contained within any and all of Intellisys’ reports are designed to
present an objective assessment of the possible value or relative value of a company and/or an actuarial
sector or stock market index. Intellisys utilises as extensive as possible range of valuation tools and
proprietary systems to derive its outputs. The base data for the models are derived from sources believed to
be accurate but Intelligent Analysis Limited does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy or reliability of the
source data or its models and proprietary systems. Subscribers, and casual readers, should not rely upon the
Intellisys’ research outputs when forming specific investment decisions but should seek advice specific to
their situation and investment requirements from a person authorized under the Financial Services and
Markets Act 2000, before entering into any investment agreement.
Intelligent Analysis Limited has used reasonable care and skill in compiling the content of this report. No
representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is given by any person as to the accuracy or completeness
or accuracy of the information and no responsibility or liability is accepted to the accuracy or sufficiency of
any of the information, for any errors, omissions or misstatements, negligent or otherwise. In no event will
Intelligent Analysis Limited, Intellisys or any of its officers, employees or agents be liable to any other party
for any direct, indirect, special or other consequential damages arising from the use of this report.
The Intelligent Analysis Limited and/or Intellisys reports are not directed to any person in any jurisdiction
where (by reason of that person’s nationality, residence or otherwise) the publication or availability of the
Intelligent Analysis Limited and/or Intellisys information may be prohibited. Persons in respect of whom such
prohibitions apply must not access the Intelligent Analysis Limited and/or Intellisys reports. Neither this
document, nor any copy in whatever form of media, may be taken or transmitted into the United States,
Canada, Australia, Ireland, South Africa or Japan or into any jurisdiction where it would be unlawful to do so.
Any failure to comply with this restriction may constitute a violation of relevant local securities laws.
Recipients of Intelligent Analysis Limited and/or Intellisys reports outside the UK are not covered by the
rules and regulations made for the protection of investors in the UK.
Any user distributing information taken from any Intelligent Analysis Limited or Intellisys report and/or the
Intellisys website, in whatever form, to any other person, agrees to attach a copy of this Disclaimer and the
Terms and Conditions of Use pages and obtain the agreement of such other person to comply with the
terms set forth.
Intellisys' published reports are published for information purposes and only available to market
counterparties, high net-worth and sophisticated individual investors.
No Intellisys report constitutes an offer or invitation to trade, sell, purchase or acquire any shares or other
financial instruments in any company or any interest therein, nor shall it form the basis of any contract
entered into for the sale of shares or any other financial instrument in any company.
Intelligent Analysis Limited believes that the information within each and any of its reports to be correct, but
its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. No representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is
given by any person as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and no responsibility or liability is
accepted for the accuracy or sufficiency of any of the information, for any errors, omissions or misstatements, negligent or otherwise.
Intelligent Analysis Limited (including its Directors, employees and representatives) or a connected person
may have positions in or options or other financial instruments on any of the securities mentioned within a
report, and may buy, sell or offer to purchase or sell such securities from time to time, subject to restrictions
imposed by internal rules.

©

Intelligent Analysis Limited www.intellisys.uk.com

Page 14 of 15

Intellisys

Value Indicator – UK Main market

26 November 2012

Subscribers, and casual reader, are reminded that the value of shares in any company may go up or down
and that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance.
Intelligent Analysis Limited is not registered with or regulated by any financial regulatory authority and does
not offer, provide or purport to provide or offer investment advice.

RISK WARNING – Ratings and Targets
Intellisys does not make personal recommendations. The information in this publication is provided solely to
enable you to make your own investment decisions.
If you are unsure about dealing in shares and other equity investments, you should contact your financial
adviser as these types of investments may not be suitable for everyone.
The value of stocks and shares, and the income from them, can fall as well as rise and you may not get back
the full amount you originally invested. If denominated in a foreign currency, fluctuations in the exchange
rate will also affect the value of stocks and shares and the income from them. Past performance is not
necessarily a guide to future performance.

©

Intelligent Analysis Limited www.intellisys.uk.com

Page 15 of 15