Glacial Melt and Downstream Impacts on Indus Dependent Water Resources and Energy Outcomes and Recommendations

International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development
Kathmandu, Nepal

Project Brief j
Glacial Melt and Downstream Impacts on Indus Dependent Water Resources and Energy
Knowledge

• September 2009 to June 2010 • Collaboration of ICIMOD and IUCN pp y • Supported by ADB • Focus on Indus basin

Impact Screening

Project Outcomes j
Gap analysis on the state of knowledge y Stakeholder analysis and partnerships Rapid climate and impact screening Practical Mountain Glacier and Downstream Water Risk Management Framework & Adaptation Guide p potential climate change adaptation g p • Proposal for p Phase II ( Poster) • • • •

Knowledge Platform g
• Collection and uploading of currently 231 papers/ reports/ documents (status 26 June 2010; collection remain on-going as part of other projects)

Please send us your reports, articles, etc to make it more comprehensive

-50.0 0.0

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Hd r b d y ea a

Nwb h h a asa

Jc bbd aoa a

Ka p r hn u

Nku d ok n i

D lb n in a ad

B h w lp r aa a u

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100.0

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-150.0

-100.0

-600.0

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0.0 0 0

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Bd a in

Bd a in

Bd a in K ra h a ci Jw n iw i a H d ra a y ea d b Chr ho Nwb h h a asa Pd a a id n i Jc bbd aoaa Kapr hnu Nkud ok n i D lb n in a ad B h w lp r aa a u l S b ib i

South

Kr c i aa h

K ra h a ci J ai iw n H d ra a y e bd

J ai iw n

Ch r ho

Ch r ho Nwb h h a asa
Pd a a id n

Pd a a id n Jc bbd ao a a Ka p r hn u Nku d ok n i D lb n in a ad B h w lp r aa a u S b ib i

S b ib i M lt n ua

Summer Precipitation Deviation

Winter Precipitation Deviation
M lta u n Qe u tta F is la a a a bd L h re ao D hn .I.K a S lk t ia o Is m b d la a a Ce t h ra P ra h a a c in r M rre u e Ps a e e h wr Kk l au M z ffa b d u a ra a D s ro h

Annual Precipitation Deviation

Citie s

Citie s

Citie s

M lta u n Qe u tta F is la a a aa d b L h re ao D Ka .I.K n h Sa o ia t lk Is m b d la a a Ce t h ra P ra h a a c in r M rre u e Psa e e h wr Kk l au M za ra a u ffa a d b D s ro h

Q eta ut F is la a a a bd L h re ao D hn .I.K a S lk t ia o Is m b d la a a C ea hr t P r c in r aa h a Mre ur e Ps a e e h wr Kk l au Mz f r bd u afa a a Do h r s

Observed trends

Deviation {Mean(2001-2007) - Normal(1971-2000)}

Deviation {Mean(2001-2007) - Normal(1971-2000)}

Deviation {Mean(2001-2007) - Normal(1971-2000)}

North

• Precipitation (summer and to some extent winter) decrease in the northern areas

(Rasul et al., 2010)

Observed trends
• Positive anomaly in last 15 years

Area-Weighted Annual Maximum Temperature Anomaly over Northern Areas of Pakistan
2.5 Change Rate = 0.185C per decade 2.0 erature Anomaly (oC) Tempe 1.5 1.0

0.5 0.0

-0.5 -1.0 -1.5 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

(PMD, 2009)

Observed trends

(Bhutiyani et al., 2009)

Upwards movements of p Isotherms
• On the average, the 30°C isotherm has now moved at 580 m above its location in early 1980s.
(Rasul et a., 2008)

Heat waves
Heat Waves Frequency over Northern Areas (when Max Temp > 35 Degrees) (consecutive 10 Days or above)

• Increase of No. of heat waves in the Northern areas • Longer duration of heat waves
(Rasul et al., 2008)

Projected Temperature j p Changes
Projected Changes in Average Temperature of Northern and Southern Pakistan (For A2 Scenario (a) and A1B Scenario (b) based on Ensemble of 13 GCMs)

(Syed et al., 2009)

Changes in the Indus basin g
(Precipitation)

1951-2000

2001-2050 (Rasul et al., 2010)

Changes in the Indus basin g
(Temperature)

1951-2000

2001-2050 (Rasul et al., 2010)

Changes in the Indus basin g

Scenario S i Change

Precipitation (mm/10  years) A2 A1B B1 +2.48 +2 48 +1.91 +1 91 ‐0 78 0.78

Temperature (°C/10 years) A2 +0.53 +0 53 A1B +0.43 +0 43 B1 +0.25 +0 25

(Rasul et al., 2010)

Projected Change Projections 2011-2099 Trend j 2011 2099
Precipitation Region eg o A2 Upper Indus Northern Punjab & Upper NWFP Central / Southern Punjab & Lower NWFP High g Balochistan +4.8 (mm/Decade) A1B +2.7 B1 -1.5 -0.1 A2 +0.79 Temperature (C/Decade) A1B +0.65 -0.35 B1 +0.35 -0.03

+8.1

+6.1

+0.02

-3.1

-1.97

-0.5

+0.71

+0.63

+0.07

+2.14 +2 14

+1.33 +1 33

-0.18 0 18

+0.36 +0 36

+0.29 +0 29

+0.09 +0 09

South-Eastern +7.3 Sindh Sindh & Lower -2.87 Balochistan

+5.2

-0.01

+0.03

-0.21

+0.10

• Precipitation – low trend • Temperature – significant trend • Temperature g trends higher for Northern Pakistan
(Rasul et al., 2010)

-1.13

-0.09

+0.55

+0.59

+0.07

Summary (based on Literature) y
Basin Upper  Indus Trend Decreasing temperature during monsoon  season; increasing temperature in spring  and winter; increased precipitation;  more rainfall than snow; Glaciers mainly  retreating, some advancing Temperature has decreased, while  precipitation has increased. No glaciers. Projection Increasing precipitation and  temperature. Uncertainty Both trends and projections are  showing increasing trends for  precipitation. For temperature  however they show different  trends. Trends and projections show  different trends in the case of  temperature. In general there is agreement  between the different studies

Both precipitation and  temperature are projected to  increase. Kabul Indications are that mean annual  Current models indicate  temperatures in Afghanistan are  significant warming across all  increasing. Mean rainfall over the same  regions of Afghanistan and  period has decreased slightly, mainly due  conditions are expected to  to decreases in spring precipitation.  become drier. In addition glaciers  Glaciers are retreating. This combination  are gradually disappearing. of factors has led to a prolonged drought  in recent years. Jhelum,  Decreasing annual precipitation and  Both temperature and  Trends up to date and the  Chenab,  warming trend overall, leading to drier  precipitation are expected to  projections into the future are not  Beas,  conditions in the areas. Glaciers are  increase. in agreement Ravi,  mostly retreating. Satluj

Lower  Indus

Summary ( y (Observed trend) )
Trend Decreasing temperature during monsoon season; increasing  Decreasing temperature during monsoon season; increasing temperature in spring and winter; increased precipitation; more  rainfall than snow. Glaciers mainly retreating, some advancing Lower Indus L I d Temperature has decreased, while precipitation has increased. No  T h d d hil i i i h i d N glaciers. Kabul Indications are that mean annual temperatures in Afghanistan are  increasing. Mean rainfall over the same period has decreased  slightly, mainly due to decreases in spring precipitation. Glaciers are  retreating. This combination of factors has led to a prolonged  drought in recent years. Jhelum, Chenab,  Decreasing annual precipitation and warming trend overall, leading  Beas, Ravi,  Beas, Ravi, to drier conditions in the areas. Glaciers are mostly retreating. to drier conditions in the areas. Glaciers are mostly retreating. Satluj Basin Upper Indus Upper Indus

Summary ( y (Projection) j )
Basin Upper Indus Upper Indus Lower Indus Kabul Projection Increasing precipitation and temperature. Increasing precipitation and temperature Both precipitation and temperature are projected to increase. Current models indicate significant warming across all regions of  Afghanistan and conditions are expected to become drier. In  addition glaciers are gradually disappearing. Both temperature and precipitation are expected to increase.

Jhelum, Chenab,  Beas, Ravi, Satluj

Summary ( y (Uncertainty) y)
Basin Upper Indus Upper Indus Uncertainty Both trends and projections are showing increasing trends for  Both trends and projections are showing increasing trends for precipitation. For temperature however they show different  trends. Trends and projections show different trends in the case of  T d d j i h diff d i h f temperature. In general there is agreement between the different studies

Lower Indus L I d Kabul

Jhelum, Chenab,  Beas, Ravi, Satluj

Trends up to date and the projections into the future are not in  agreement

Impact on flows p

(Rees and Collins, 2004)

No change in Tarbela inflow (1961-2004; Ali et al., 2009)

Decreasing runoff in Hunza river between 1961 and 2000 in spring (46%) and summer (35%; Fowler and Archer, 2006) Kabul No trend observed in Shyok (1961-2000; Fowler and Archer, 2006) Jhelum Upper Indus

Significant decreasing trend in Kabul river (1961-2004; Ali et al., 2009)

No trend in flow at Kalabagh (1922-2002; Ali et al., 2009)

Chenab flow trend in Mangla inflows No (1922-2004; Ali et al., 2009) Beas Increasing trend in Chenab (1922-2004; Ali et al., 2009) Satluj Ravi

Indus Plain

Significant reduction at Kotri (different authors)

Flow changes

The glacier area in Afghanistan and surrounding countries decreased by nearly 40% over the past 40 years (Zonn, 2002) p y ( , ) Kabul

Glaciers in the Central Karakorum thickening and advancing, while glaciers in the adjacent areas to the North and West continue to diminish (Hewitt, 2005)

Jhelum

Upper Indus

Chenab Ravi Beas The vast majority of the studies on different glaciers in the Western Himalayas show retreating snouts and decreasing glacial mass balances (UNEP, 2009)

Satluj S tl j Indus Plain

Glacier dynamics

Glacier behaviour
• Between 1962 2001 Kulkarni et al (2007) observed an 1962–2001, al. overall 21% decline in the glacial area of 466 glaciers in the Himalayan basins of Baspa, Parbati and Chenab rivers. • For Chhota Shigri Glacier Kumar et al. (2007) reported a variation of the equilibrium line altitude in the 17 years from 4650 m in year 1987 to 5180 in 2004 i e an average rate of 2004, i.e. upward shifting by 31 m/year. • Fluctuations of the Raikot glacier, Nanga Parbat massif, over the past 70 years are characterized by retreat between the 1930s and 1950s, a marked advance between the 1950s and 1980s, and a relatively stable situation after 1992 1980s (Schmidt and Nuesser, 2009).

Glacier information

Qin 2002 52,850 km2

Dyurgerov and Meier 2005

Knowledge g p g gaps
• Detailed knowledge of the glaciers in the uplands of the Indus river basin
• • Status Dynamics – mass balance!

• Comprehensive modelling of impact on water resources
• • Data availability and quality Transboundary and interdepartmental collaboration

• Uncertainty of predictions: conflicting results between different models

Rapid screening ( ) p g (1)
Objective: • Id tifi ti of risks associated t th particular Identification f i k i t d to the ti l intervention • Assessment of potential risk management and adaptation options • Existing • Additional

Rapid screening ( ) p g (2)
• Following a 8 step approach based on ORCHID (modified) • 5 steps for desk screening Potential climate hazards/stresses Vulnerability of the project objectives Preliminary assessment of risk management options • Verification of above steps + 3 steps for field screening Detailed assessment of existing/potential risk management options

Rapid screening ( ) p g (3)
Projects P j t Punjab Irrigated Agricultural Investment Program Renewable Energy Development Sector Investment Program New Bong Escape Hydropower Project Water Resources Development Investment Program Power Transmission Enhancement Investment Program Small to Medium-Sized Hydropower Development Project Energy S t Development I E Sector D l t Investment P t t Program Country C t Pakistan Pakistan Pakistan Afghanistan Pakistan Afghanistan Afghanistan Af h i t

Field Screening

Rapid screening ( ) p g (4)
Details in Screening report Project
1 2 3

Remarks
X

001-2010: Punjab Irrigated Agricultural Investment Program (37231)

The project is particularly affected by the looming water crisis. Already now there is no water running in the Ravi river and the water supply in the canals has reduced in the last ten years (Mahmood-ul-Hassan, personal communication). For this reason the project includes several adaptation options in on-farm water management, groundwater management and institution reforms, which are all believed to increase the resilience of the farmers in the command area of LBDC. In terms of flooding there is a large uncertainty because of the influence of Thein dam in India The India. design of the structures is based on the assumption that Thein dam will have a beneficial impact on floods of high magnitude. For this reason the design floods are reduced and currently only the 1:50 years flood is being considered for the design of the barrage. Overall, it is clear, that the main issue for this project is water availability followed far behind by riverine and flash floods.

Rapid screening ( ) p g (5)
Water availability is the main issue for all field screened projects Risk/opportunities for risk management options vary. Lower Bari Doab Canal Project number of risk management options are already being planned as there is a high opportunity to reduce risk. Punjab Power Development Company, and the New Bong Escape Hydropower project there is very little additional options that are available as they are both quite climate robust as long as the irrigation management f it li t b t l th i i ti t from Mangla reservoir remains unchanged. Both more vulnerable to decisions about water releases to different provinces and canal systems than to climate change. Life cycle of these hydropower projects is 40 to 50 years

Risk Management and Adaptation

Project Screening
Q1: Potential Climate Hazards (Is the project vulnerable to any climate hazards?)

Step St A

Hazard assessment H d t
Step A1: Determine the basin in which the project is located; Step A2: Identify the hazard level for this basin.

Step B

Vulnerability assessment
Step B1: Determine the development field; Step B2: Identify the different impacts of the respective hazards on the project; Step B3 A i th St B3: Assign the appropriate levels to the three components of i t l l t th th t f vulnerability; Step B4: Determine the level impact on the society and the strategic importance; Step B5: Determine the appropriate vulnerability level.

Q2: Vulnerabilities (Are the intervention’s objectives vulnerable to variations in climate?)

Step C

Risk assessment
Step C1: on the basis of the hazard and vulnerability levels, determine the appropriate risk level; Step C2: Determine the appropriate action and validate this recommendation..

Step D

Identification of risk management and adaptation options
Step D1: Identify potential options; Step D2: Rate the different options; Step D3: Summarize all options. options

Step E

Q3: Existing Risk Management (Does the intervention already take climate hazards into consideration? And Q6: Risk management options (What risk g p management options are to be implemented? What options could be implemented in addition?)

Recommendation

Federal Ministries
Ministry of Foreign Affairs Ministry of Food and Agriculture y g Ministry of Livestock Ministry of Water and Power Ministry of Industries/Production Ministry of Education Ministry of Health Ministry f E i Mi i t of Environment t

Prime Minister’s Committee on Climate Change (PMCCC) Planning Commission

Int. Funding Agencies Development Banks Bilateral Donors UN Agencies

Task Force on Climate Change ( (PC-TFCC) )

Inter-govt. Inter-govt organisations/INGOs/NGOs

SDPI ICIMOD LEAD-Pak

WWF Oxfam SCOPE RSPs

Relevant Provincial Line Departments

IUCN Technical Advisory Panel (TAP)

PCRET Pak-EPA PAEC HDIP AEDB ENERCON

NARC/PARC

WAPDA NDMA PID PCRWR Agricultural universities i iti

GCISC NIO CIIT

PMD Legend SUPARCO PIDE Member TAP
Member PC-TFCC Direction/Supervision

PFI

Academic Institutions Research/Data collection

Government Int. F di I t Funding NGO/INGO Private sector

Private sector Mitigation Adaptation

Stakeholder landscape

Issues and Gaps p
•Policy environment: Missing climate change policy; Missing National Programme of Action; Financial support •Data and information availability: Density of hydro-meteorological monitoring network in mountain areas; Data integration of data from different institutions; Data access at national and transboundary level; Access to published and unpublished information •Scientific knowledge: Downscaling of climate change scenarios; Detailed knowledge of glacier resources and dynamics; Impact of glacier dynamics on water g g y ; p g y resources; Economic impact of water resources dynamics •Adaptation capacity: Promotion of appropriate adaptation options, Tools for risk management and adaptation •Technical capacity: Lack of trained human resources; Adequate equipment and instruments; Computation capacity •Institutional arrangements: Interdepartmental collaboration and coordination; Transboundary collaboration and coordination •Awareness: Awareness of climate change in the general population; Awareness of climate change at different institutional levels

Recommendations
• Build capacity of relevant national institutions to adequately monitor and project th i j t the impacts of climate change (d t f li t h (downscaling of climate change li f li t h scenarios to sub-basin level, transboundary assessment of glacier dynamics and water resources modeling of the Indus river and its tributaries); Identify appropriate adaptation options suitable for the water and energy sector and different locations in the Indus basin through enhanced research base, pilot studies and i t b il t t di d integrated planning approaches; t d l i h Make water and energy programmes and projects climate proof through the application of suitable tools to identify vulnerabilities and threats and with the help of the adaptation options identified above; Support the creation of a favourable environment for the implementation of climate change adaptation activities through awareness creation, policy dialogue. Poster

• •

Thank you y

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