You are on page 1of 9

16.8865 + 0.3485t 0.

35

1 17.24
2 17.58
3 17.93
4 18.28
5 18.63
6 18.98
7 19.33
8 19.67
9 20.02
10 20.37
11 20.72
12 21.07
13 21.42
14 21.77
15 22.11
16 22.46
17 22.81
18 23.16
19 23.51
20 23.86
21 24.21
22 24.55
23 24.9
24 25.25
25 25.6
26 25.95
27 26.3
28 26.64
29 26.99
30 27.34
Problem 3
A customer comment phone line is staffed from 8:00 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. five days a week. Records are available
that show the number of calls received every day for the last five weeks.

a. Use the information to calculate a seasonal index.


Week Day t Y : Number tY t²
1 Mon 1 28 28.00 1.00
Tue 2 12 24.00 4.00
Wed 3 16 48.00 9.00
Thu 4 15 60.00 16.00
Fri 5 23 115.00 25.00
2 Mon 6 29 174.00 36.00
Tue 7 10 70.00 49.00
Wed 8 14 112.00 64.00
Thu 9 14 126.00 81.00
Fri 10 26 260.00 100.00
3 Mon 11 32 352.00 121.00
Tue 12 15 180.00 144.00
Wed 13 15 195.00 169.00
Thu 14 18 252.00 196.00
Fri 15 27 405.00 225.00
4 Mon 16 35 560.00 256.00
Tue 17 17 289.00 289.00
Wed 18 16 288.00 324.00
Thu 19 20 380.00 361.00
Fri 20 29 580.00 400.00
5 Mon 21 37 777.00 441.00
Tue 22 19 418.00 484.00
Wed 23 18 414.00 529.00
Thu 24 21 504.00 576.00
Fri 25 28 700.00 625.00
325 534 7,311.00 5,525.00

สมการแนวโน้ม Yt = a + bt

โดยท่ี b = [ 7,311 - (325*534)/25 ] / [ 5,525 - 325²/25]

= 0.2838

a = Yt -bt

= 534/25 - 325/25 * 0.2838

= 13.6738

ดังนัน
้ สมการคือ 13.6738 + 0.2838t

Week Day t Y : Number


1 Mon 1 28 13.96 2.01
Tue 2 12 14.24 0.84
Wed 3 16 14.53 1.10
Thu 4 15 14.81 1.01
Fri 5 23 15.09 1.52
2 Mon 6 29 15.38 1.89
Tue 7 10 15.66 0.64
Wed 8 14 15.94 0.88
Thu 9 14 16.23 0.86
Fri 10 26 16.51 1.57
3 Mon 11 32 16.80 1.90
Tue 12 15 17.08 0.88
Wed 13 15 17.36 0.86
Thu 14 18 17.65 1.02
Fri 15 27 17.93 1.51
4 Mon 16 35 18.21 1.92
Tue 17 17 18.50 0.92
Wed 18 16 18.78 0.85
Thu 19 20 19.07 1.05
Fri 20 29 19.35 1.50
5 Mon 21 37 19.63 1.88
Tue 22 19 19.92 0.95
Wed 23 18 20.20 0.89
Thu 24 21 20.49 1.02
Fri 25 28 20.77 1.35

Day Seasonal Irregular Component Seasonal Factor


Mon 2.01 , 1.89 , 1.90 , 1.92 ,1.88 1.92 1.56
Tue 0.84 , 0.64 , 0.88 , 0.92 , 0.95 0.85 0.69
Wed 1.10 , 0.88 , 0.86 , 0.85 , 0.89 0.92 0.74
Thu 1.01 , 0.86 , 1.02 , 1.05 , 1.02 0.99 0.81
Fri 1.52 , 1.57 , 1.51 , 1.50 ,1.35 1.49 1.20
6.17 5.00

b. Deseasonalize the data.

Week Day t Y : Number Deseasonalized tY t²


1 Mon 1 28 17.95 17.95 1.00
Tue 2 12 17.39 34.78 4.00
Wed 3 16 21.62 64.86 9.00
Thu 4 15 18.52 74.07 16.00
Fri 5 23 19.17 95.83 25.00
2 Mon 6 29 18.59 111.54 36.00
Tue 7 10 14.49 101.45 49.00
Wed 8 14 18.92 151.35 64.00
Thu 9 14 17.28 155.56 81.00
Fri 10 26 21.67 216.67 100.00
3 Mon 11 32 20.51 225.64 121.00
Tue 12 15 21.74 260.87 144.00
Wed 13 15 20.27 263.51 169.00
Thu 14 18 22.22 311.11 196.00
Fri 15 27 22.50 337.50 225.00
4 Mon 16 35 22.44 358.97 256.00
Tue 17 17 24.64 418.84 289.00
Wed 18 16 21.62 389.19 324.00
Thu 19 20 24.69 469.14 361.00
Fri 20 29 24.17 483.33 400.00
5 Mon 21 37 23.72 498.08 441.00
Tue 22 19 27.54 605.80 484.00
Wed 23 18 24.32 559.46 529.00
Thu 24 21 25.93 622.22 576.00
Fri 25 28 23.33 583.33 625.00
325 535.23 7,411.06 5,525.00

สมการแนวโน้ม Yt = a + bt

โดยท่ี b = [ 7,411.06 - (325*535.23)/25 ] / [ 5,525 - 325²/25]

= 0.3485

a = Yt -bt

= 535.23/25 - 325/25 * 0.3479

= 16.8865

ดังนัน
้ สมการคือ 16.8865 + 0.3485t

c. Find the trend line.

Yt = 16.8865 + 0.3485t

Number of Call received

25

20

15
Yt

10 Column B

0
R R R RR R R R RR R R R R RR R R R RR R R R R
o o o oo o o o oo o o o o oo o o o oo o o o o
w w w ww w w w ww w w w w ww w w w ww w w w w
t

d. Assume there is no cyclical component and forecast the calls for a week

Trend
Forecast
(T=16.8865 Number of Calls per
Day t + 0.3485t) Seasonal Factor Day Forecast
M 26 25.95 1.5600 40
T 27 26.3 0.6900 18
W 28 26.64 0.7400 20
TH 29 26.99 0.8100 22
F 30 27.34 1.2000 33
cords are available

13.67 0.28